Catalonia Evidence

Definitions
Independence
Interpretation: The Oxford International Law dictionary defines “independence” as
the autonomy of a state in the affairs within its borders and sovereignty over its
territory.
Violation: The pro team is only advocating autonomy, they are not defending a
sovereign state or formal autonomy.
Standards:
1) Grounds- Advocating anything short of actual independence takes away
negative ground and co-opts our impacts
2) Education- Since the affirmative is not actually affirming the resolution, they
are preventing a debate between competing. This stops the ability of us to
engage in an educational activity
Don’t buy this argument, it’s totally abusive.
Pro
OVs and OBs
Peaceful Secession Obs
1. The Guardian reports that the main tenant of the Catalan independence
movement has been its peaceful resistance model. In fact, every injury or event
of brutalization has been on behalf of the Spanish government. If the other
secession movements are really looking towards Catalonia and Spain willingly
GRANTS them independence, it will be more likely that those secession
movements become nonviolent and use legal channels.
Negotiation Obs
Realize that affirming the resolution is the best solution to any problem since it gives
Spain the power in the relationship. Sorens of Dartmouth College writes that under
the current political environment of Spanish resistance to independence, Spain is
powerless. However, if Spain were to grant Catalonia the ability to get independence
legally, Sorens reports that Spain would have the power to negotiate independence
on their terms. With this option, Spain could still have access to Catalan resources and
avoid economic harms.
“Cracking down on independence movements is a bad idea” Jason Sorens (Jason Sorens is lecturer in
the Department of Government at Dartmouth College.) 21 Dec 2017
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/cracking-independence-movements-bad-idea-
171219075614245.html
How should central governments treat independence movements? My own research shows that central
governments can limit the uncertainty and violence over secession campaigns when they provide a legal
path to independence. The most recent scenes in Catalonia and Iraqi Kurdistan only serve to further
confirm this finding. When central governments crack down on independence movements, political and
economic instability and even violence are the usual outcomes.
There are two major reasons why suppressing secession attempts by force is no solution to the issue.
First, it is impossible to efface the dream of independence from people's minds. Repression raises latent
support for independence, even if it removes all public expression of that support. If the state eventually
faces a moment of weakness or crisis, that latent support could quickly break out into a mass
movement, as happened in various parts of Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union in the 1990s.
Second, when governments try to eliminate the possibility of independence, they give themselves a
freer hand to mistreat their ethnic minorities. My research shows that democracies that define
themselves as "indivisible" in their constitutions are less likely to decentralise power to their regions and
give more rights to local communities to govern themselves.
CONTINUES
If governments permitted independence, they could negotiate the terms. If Iraq had been willing to
negotiate the terms of Kurdish independence, they likely could have won territorial concessions without
the use of military force. If Spain had been willing to negotiate a binding referendum with the Catalan
government similar to the British government's deal with the Scottish government in 2014, they could
have worked out a threshold of success (say, 55 percent) that would have made success unlikely. A
failed referendum could have ended the independence threat for a generation. Instead, by sending in
thousands of riot police, jailing politicians and taking their assets, banning websites, pressuring and
raiding private newspapers, print shops, and hotels, and prosecuting political expression by private
citizens, they have alienated moderate Catalans, lost face internationally, and ensured that
independence and related issues like "political prisoners" will remain on the agenda for the indefinite
future. Supporting a negotiated, democratic solution to independence controversies does not mean
supporting independence. It simply means taking away some of the risks and costs of these disputes and
allowing a normal debate on the merits of the issue to take place. Governments will treat all their
citizens better when they know they cannot forever trap them into political subjection against their will.
EU/UN Inclusion OB
1. Since we are debating whether Spain should grant Catalonia its independence,
the pro world is not forced secession. Paluzie of the University of Barcelona
writes that this “agreed secession” would allow Catalonia to remain in the EU
and allow them to enter the UN. Ayadi of the Barcelona Center for
International Affairs confirms that any kind of agreed secession would be
significantly more beneficial and would reduce economic concerns
Alfons Lopez Tena [member of Catalan Parliament from 2010 - 2012] and Elisenda
Paluzie [associate professor of economics and the Dean of the Faculty of Economics at
Barcelona University], “Here are the economics of a Catalan secession from Spain,” Business Insider, February 24
2016. Available at: http://www.businessinsider.com/economicsof-catalan-secession-from-spain-2016-2
Velvet divorce scenario: agreed secession. The independent Catalonia is recognized by Spain, becomes a full
EU member- state, enters the UN and all the international organizations, assumes its rights and obligations
under the existing treaties, etc. In this case few are the economic impacts on economics since almost
everything goes on as usual. Catalonia would gain full control of its own taxes, hence around €16 billion ($21
billion) wouldn’t be siphoned off by Spain every year; economic policies best suited to Catalan needs may be
developed if voters choose wisely; and both parts take their fair share of former Spain’s public assets and debt in
application of the Vienna Convention of 1983. Spain’s only loss should be the fore-mentioned Catalan taxes, around
2% of Spanish GDP every year: a big but not an overwhelming blow.
Rym Ayadi, Leonidas Paroussos, Kostas Fragkiadakis, Stella Tsani, Pantelis Capros, Carlo Sessa, Riccardo Enei and
Marc Gafarot. "Scenarios of Macro-economic Development for Catalonia on Horizon 2030" Barcelona Center for
International Affairs. 15 Jul. 2015. Web. 7 Dec. 2017.
<https://www.vilaweb.cat/media/continguts/000/104/312/312.pdf>
As expected Catalonia benefits more under mutual agreement on secession as the lower
uncertainties and risks associated with secession in this case allow for a faster recovery of the
economy from the shock of independence from Spain. These conclusions favor a scenario for
secession under mutual agreement between Catalonia and Spain and an orderly planning
towards resolution as opposing to a scenario of unilateral secession. It thus reduces any
uncertainty and risks which effects are detrimental to all parties.
SBS News. October 8, 2017. <https://www.sbs.com.au/news/could-an-independent-catalonia-stay-in-

the-eu>
European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has made it clear Brussels would only respect a
vote for independence if it was held in line with the Spanish constitution. EU members "will not
recognise Catalonia as a state if it is created in violation of the law and particularly the Spanish
constitution", said Jean-Claude Piris, an expert in European law. Membership talks for Catalonia would
likely be different from those currently under way for candidate countries such as the Balkan states and
Turkey, which have to harmonise their legislation and foreign policy as well as bring human rights
standards up to EU standards. Catalonia has sought to get ahead on this point by passing a law last
month that said all EU laws would apply in its territory even if it was no longer a member.
Violence O/W Econ OV
There are three reasons that violence outweighs all their economic impacts.
1. Violence isn’t reversible. The economy can be resurrected from depression or
recession, but death is irreversible.
2. Violence turns their whole case. Weinstein of Harvard quantifies that violence
during secessionist movements decrease the economic growth rate by 2.2% and
decrease the GDP by 2% annually.
3. We’re the only ones accessing a long-term impact. The Economist explains in
2017 that if a country is able to reduce or avoid violence it can yield better
economic policies, solving for any short-term economic harms.
Imai, Kosuke, and Jeremy Weinstein. “Measuring the Economic Impact of Civil War.” imai.princeton.edu,
Center for International Development at Harvard University, CID Working Paper No. 51, June 2000, pp.
7-8 https://imai.princeton.edu/research/files/cid.pdf
The study most relevant to this paper is an empirical examination of the economic consequences of civil
war by Paul Collier(1999). He quantifies the effects of civil war on growth both during the war and in a
five-year period after the conflict. Collier combines economic data from the Penn World Tables with
data on civil wars from the Correlates of War Project (Small and Singer 1996). This data set provides a
sample of 92 countries of which 19 had civil wars. The dependent variable is the decade average per
capita GDP growth rate of each country. Collier introduces three variables meant to capture the
economic effects of an ongoing war, the legacy of the conflict in future decades, and the impact of the
length of economic transition following the conflict. The key finding by Collier related to our question
concerns the immediate economic consequences of war duration. Collier claims that ”During civil war
the annual growth rate is reduced by 2.2%. A 15-year civil war would thus reduce per capita GDP by
around 30%”(p.175, emphasis in original).4
“The threat of war can bring much-needed investment.” economist.com, The Economist, 4/27/17,
https://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21721418-whereas-times-peace-
governments-grow-complacent-threat-war-can-bring
As populations have grown and technology has advanced, the job of defending societies has become
more complex. That, in turn, has spurred the proliferation of government responsibilities. Research by
Nicola Gennaioli and Hans-Joachim Voth suggests that the growing financial demands of warfare after
1500 helped drive the formation of large, strong nation-states in Europe. The rising cost of war meant
that keeping a state secure required a powerful, centralised government capable of raising large sums of
money—through tax, or via modern, central bank-tended financial systems. Their work draws on
research by Timothy Besley and Torsten Persson, who reckon state power built to improve defence can
yield better economic policy; the capacity to use the tax system to transfer wealth directly, for instance,
means society relies less on inefficient sorts of redistribution.
Catalonia O/W OV
We ought to prefer impacts to Catalan citizens first for two reasons:
1) The framers intentionally specified Catalonia in the resolution, not just that
Spain should grant independence to its governed regions, meaning we should
be looking to prioritize Catalonia.
2) It is the best way to make a just decision. John Rawls says that the first virtue of
governments is to better the position of the least well off in society. Catalans
are by far less well off than Spain in this debate, so we ought to prioritize
benefiting them first.
As long as we’re winning that the benefits to Catalonia outweigh the harms in our
world, that’s enough to affirm.
Democracy Ov
As an overview, the suppression of Catalan independence signals the death of Spanish
democracy for two reasons.
1. First, loss of judicial legitimacy. The Human Rights Watch explains that national
police have injured 900 Catalan protestors, deeming this a human rights abuse.
The Foundation of Economic Education finds that state based violence erodes
basic human rights and democratic values. The Open Democracy Foundation
writes that specifically in Spain this has caused judicial independence to
crumble because the judiciary is being forced to side with the government.
2. Second, is media manipulation. Al Jazeera explains that the government has
censored and retracted pro independence media. The Electric Frontier
Foundation reports that many pro independence political parties have had their
websites shut down by the national government. Walker of Johns Hopkins
University explains that this denies Catalans the basic rights to freedom of press
and speech paving the way for authoritarianism.
The impact comes from the Washington Post, which explains that these actions are
reminiscent of past Spanish autocracy. The Atlantic explains that if you don’t grant
Catalonia independence now it will forced upon Spain meaning, voting pro ends these
upholds democracy, while the con prolongs the struggle.
Human Rights Watch, “Spain: Police Used Excessive Force in Catalonia,” 10/12/17,
https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/10/12/spain-police-used-excessive-force-catalonia
Across the region,the two police forces sent in by the central government, along with the Mossos d’Esquadra,
Catalonia’s police force, sought to execute a court order to stop the referendum that also required them to respect “the coexistence between
citizens.” They confronted largely peaceful protestors, although there were incidents in which some responded to the national forces with violence.
Hundreds were left injured, some seriously. Catalonia’s Health Department estimated on October 2 that 893 people had
reported injuries to the authorities
Williams, Laura. “Catalonia Shows the Danger of Disarming Civilians,” Foundation of Economic
Education, 10/5/17, https://fee.org/articles/catalonia-shows-the-danger-of-disarming-civilians/
In Spain, firearm ownership is not a protected individual right. Civilian firearms licenses are restricted to
“cases of extreme necessity” if the government finds “genuine reason.” Background checks, medical exams, and license restrictions further restrict access. Licenses are
granted individually by caliber and model, with automatic weapons strictly forbidden to civilians. Police can demand a citizen produce a firearm at
any time for inspection or confiscation. Spain has enacted, it would seem, the kind of “common sense restrictions” American gun-control advocates crave.
an enormous arsenal of weapons, which are all in

But of course, that doesn’t mean that Spanish citizens don’t buy guns. In fact, Spanish taxpayers maintain
the hands “professional armed police forces within the administration of the state, who are the persons
in charge of providing security to the population.” The consequences of a government using force to
control those it is sworn to protect must be high. When citizens are armed, the consequences for
tyranny rise and its likelihood falls.
Julia Montana, (Epidemiologist & Social Activist), CATALONIA: A CRY FOR UNDERSTANDING AND
RECOGNITION, Nov. 16, 2017. Retrieved Dec. 6, 2017 from https://www.opendemocracy.net/can-
europemake- it/j-lia-monta/catalonia-cry-for-understanding-and-recognition.
Taking control of the Catalan government is not only illegal, it is also undemocratic. To implement direct
rule and govern a territory where the PP only won 8% of the votes in the past elections would hardly “restore
democracy and give Catalonia back to Catalans” as Rajoy has claimed. Furthermore, in doing so, the PP is
clearly violating the fundamental right to self-determination embedded in the Human Rights Charter, as
recently highlighted by UN Human Rights Council Independent Expert Alfred de Zayas last Thursday.
Aljazeera, “Spain's media spin on Catalonia,” 10/10/17,

http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/listeningpost/2017/10/spain-media-spin-catalonia-
171008112952501.html
"The future of journalism, at least in Spain, is coming to an end," says Monegal. "We've reached the point where journalists are soldiers
fighting in the trenches, working for a particular cause. When reporting the news, journalists should all be stateless. They shouldn't raise any specific flag; they should actually raise all of them
and be at the service of all of them. Not just one."
Malcolm, Jeremy. “No Justification for Spanish Internet Censorship During Catalonian Referendum,”
Electronic Frontier Foundation, 10/2/17, https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2017/10/no-justification-
spanish-internet-censorship-during-catalonian-referendum
The ruthless efficiency with which the Spanish government censored the Internet ahead of the referendum on Catalonian independence foreshadowed the severity of its crackdown at polling
places on October 1. We have previously written about one aspect of that censorship; the raid of the .cat top-level domain registry. But there was much more to it than that, and many
of the more than 140 censored domains and Internet services continue to be blocked today.
It began with the seizure of the referendum.cat domain, the official referendum website, on September 13 by the Guardia Civil (Spanish military police), pursuant to a warrant issued by the
Supreme Court of Catalonia. Over the ensuring days this order was soon extended to a number of other and unofficial mirrors of the website, such as ref1oct.cat and ref1oct.eu, which were
seized if they were hosted at a .cat domain, and blocked by ISPs if they were not. (The fact that Spanish ISPs already blocked websites such as the Pirate Bay under court order enabled the
blocking of additional websites to be rolled out swiftly.)
One of these subsequent censorship orders, issued on September 23, was especially notable in that it empowered the Guardia Civil to
block not only a list of named websites, but also any future sites with content related to the referendum, publicized on any social
network by a member of the Catalonian Government. This order accelerated the blocking of further websites without any further court order. These apparently included
the censorship of non-partisan citizen collectives (e.g. empaperem.cat) and other non-profit organizations
(assemblea.cat, webdelsi.cat, alerta.cat), and campaign websites by legal political parties (prenpartit.cat).
On Friday a separate court order was obtained requiring Google to remove a voting app from the Google Play app store. Similar to the September 23 order, the order also required Google to
violating such orders by setting up mirrors, reverse proxies, or

remove any other apps developed by the same developer. Those
alternative domains for blocked content were summoned to court and face criminal charges. One of
these activists also had his GitHub and Google accounts seized.
Walker, Christopher. “Breaking the News: The Role of State-Run Media,” Johns Hopkins University,
January 2014,
http://cddrl.fsi.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/walker_and_orttung_breaking_the_news.pdf
a healthy democracy depends on

Thomas Jefferson believed that the people need “full information of their affairs thro[ugh] the channel of the public papers,” for
an informed citizenry that enjoys access to the free flow of ideas and debate on matters of civic
importance. Successful authoritarianism, in stark contrast, absorbs newspapers into the government (whether formally or in fact) and survives by
narrowing the flow of ideas on the issues that matter most in order to ensure that its citizens remain quiescent because unaware.
Sara Newland of Harvard University thus concludes in 2015 that governments use the
internet to monitor and control citizens in order to preserve their own power,
decreasing democracy as a result.
Newland, Sara A. “Countering Liberation Technology: Internet Access and Media Freedom in
Autocracies,” Harvard University, June 24, 2015,
http://peterlorentzen.com/research_files/Newland_Lorentzen_Media.pdf
As internet access around the globe has increased, however, so has the sophistication with which authoritarian regimes seek to monitor, censor, and deploy it (Hachigian, 2002; Han, 2015;
King et al., 2013; Roberts, 2014). Technologists, scholars, and pundits have long hoped that the internet will be a “liberation technology,” strengthening democracies and undermining
governments may use the

authoritarian regimes around the world (Diamond, 2010). A large body of work has found the opposite to be true, however. Instead,
internet to monitor and control citizens, ultimately forestalling democracy and preserving their own
power (Kalathil & Boas, 2003; Morozov, 2011). Despite the obvious disagreement between these two perspectives, they rest on a common assumption: that autocrats fear any
independent voices, striving only to restrict the media as much as possible in order to transmit a unified
propaganda message, a view long established in the political science literature (Friedrich & Brzezinski, 1956; Geddes & Zaller,
1989)
By Michael Birnbaum November 9, 2017 “For some, Catalonia crackdown evokes memories of the dark
days of Spain’s dictatorship” https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/spanish-crackdown-on-
catalonia-independence-effort-prompts-bitter-memories-of-franco-dictatorship/2017/11/08/b0ae6eac-
bf14-11e7-9294-705f80164f6e_story.html?utm_term=.d85074ca62bd
But some Catalan nationalists say the situation is far less complicated: The Spanish government is using
fear tactics, just like in the Franco years. “They want to alienate the Catalan population from the Spanish
government. And they want to impose it through fear,” said Ermengol Gassiot, the head of the
Barcelona branch of the hard-line CGT trade union. “Given the legal repercussions, they hope people will
cease to push for independence. This is a return to the strategy employed by the Franco years.”
Theory
At: Reform Instead
Interpretation: The Negative Team must prove a strong probability that reform will
happen without independence, they cannot simply fiat that reform will happen
Violation: they provide no probability that reform is occurring now or that it will
occur, so they cannot make it happen
Standards: Grounds- The Negative cannot attempt to co-opt any of our solvency
without actually proving that it will happen.
Denial of Rights doesn’t Solve
1. The Guardian explains that Spain’s denial of rights has moved the conflict
beyond the point of reconciliation. It has just caused a greater push for
independence.
Jill Rutter 25 Oct ‘17 09.30 EDT “Here’s how to solve the Catalan crisis, using lessons from Brexit”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/25/how-solve-catalan-crisis-brexit-lessons-
spain-good-cop-referendum-model
Until I lived in Madrid, I had not realised that the animosity between Madrid and Barcelona went well
beyond the ritual of football’s El Clásico. I want Spain and Catalonia to find a way through. At the
moment we are locked into reciprocal escalation, possible mutual destruction and certain economic and
social damage. The moves of the Spanish government to assert its constitutional right to suspend
Catalan autonomy are unlikely to provide the basis for reconciliation and a stable long-term way
forward. Equally, years of civil disobedience acted out in attrition by the Catalans will only make a bad
situation worse.
Terrorism Frontlines
A2: Independence Increases Terror
There are a few reasons why terror decreases in the aff world
a) First, as already stated, an Independent Catalonia would be able to refocus its
budget to deal with pertinent issues, and in the short term, this would be
strong borders and national security
b) Hasik of the Atlantic Council reports that Catalonia would be welcomed into
NATO, and would easily be able to become a regional power in the
Mediterranean
c) According to Louise Richardson in her book “Roots of Terrorism”, more
ethnically homogenous countries are less likely to experience terror attacks and
are more effective at responding to them when they do occur. By giving
Catalans, which have their own culture and livelihood, their own nation, you
are decreasing the likelihood of conflict in the future.
1. (BACKUP RESPONSE FOR WHEN YOU’RE WINNING BUT YOU LIKE READING
THINGS) This is nonunique. Kersten oF DW News explains that terrorism in
Catalonia already occurs in the status quo. They never give you a specific
warrant as to why this increases in the pro world.
Kersten ‘17: Knipp, Kersten. "Catalonia's Islamic Extremism Problem." The DW. 8/18/17. http://www.dw.com/en/catalonias-islamic-
extremism-problem/a-40155371
"The threat in Catalonia is clear." With these unflinching words in 2010, made public by the anti-secrecy group WikiLeaks, the US State
Department was already voicing concern over the potential for radicalization among young Muslim men in Barcelona. The city was a
"crossroads of worrisome activities," according to the leaked document, with a large Muslim community of which a small portion was
vulnerable to being recruited by jihadi groups. Migrants from North Africa, Pakistan and Bangladesh had turned the region into a "magnet for
terrorist recruiters," it said. The day after this week's attacks, Spanish newspapers published numbers illustrating that danger in the form of
statistics. Barcelona, along with Madrid and the autonomous Spanish cities of Ceuta and Melilla, has an exceptional number of jihadis.
Around a third of Spain's Muslim population lives in these cities. Between 2012 and 2016, 178 jihadis
were apprehended in the entire country; almost four-fifths of them came from one of these four cities.
International Law Frontlines
IL Supreme
1. Ginger of the Scotland National reports
Ginger Dug, (Staff), THE SCOTLAND NATIONAL, Nov. 8, 2017. Retrieved Nov. 25, 2017 from Nexis.
The fact is that the right to self-determination is a principle of international law, and as such it is a
greater right than Spain's right to territorial integrity, and a greater right than anything enshrined in
the constitution of any particular state.
Occupying Catalonia Violates IR
1. Montana of Open Democracy reports that
europemake- it/j-lia-monta/catalonia-cry-for-understanding-and-recognition.
Taking control of the Catalan government is not only illegal, it is also undemocratic. To implement direct
rule and govern a territory where the PP only won 8% of the votes in the past elections would hardly “restore
democracy and give Catalonia back to Catalans” as Rajoy has claimed. Furthermore, in doing so, the PP is
clearly violating the fundamental right to self-determination embedded in the Human Rights Charter, as
recently highlighted by UN Human Rights Council Independent Expert Alfred de Zayas last Thursday.
Occupying Catalonia Threatens Judicial Legitimacy
europemake-it/j-lia-monta/catalonia-cry-for-understanding-and-recognition.
Today, members of the Catalan Parliament are being sent to prison for rebellion, omitting that for an act to be
considered rebellious within the Spanish penal code it needs to include violence by the person accused. This
does not come as a surprise in a country that ranks 58th in the World Economic Forum’s ranking of
judicial independence, directly below Kenya, Lithuania and Botswana.
A2: Referendum Illegitimate
1. Levrat of the University of Geneva details that
Nicholas Levrat, (Prof., International Law, U. Geneva), CATALONIA’S LEGITIMATE RIGHT TO DECIDE:
PATHS TO SELF-DETERMINATION, Aug. 31, 2017. Retrieved Dec. 4, 2017 from
http://exteriors.gencat.cat/web/.content/00_ACTUALITAT/notes_context/FULL-REPORT-Catalonias-legitimate-
right-to-decide.pdf.
We have shown in Part II of this report that the Right to Decide lays on substantial and solid sociological,
political, moral and philosophical foundations. Nevertheless, the exercise of this right by Catalonia in
2017 is being contested (and eventually denied) to the Catalans by the Authorities of the Spanish State.
A2: Instability (General)
1. Disregard their evidence saying ____. Desquens of Johns Hopkins University
reports that the situation in Catalonia is uniquely different, since Catalonia is an
established region with a democratically elected government and stable
economy- this is uniquely different from other regions that have tried to force
independence, which is what their evidence looks at.
Josep Desquens, B.A. in Business Administration, Master's in International Relations from Johns Hopkins
University, Programme Manager at the European Union, Europe's Stateless Nations in the Era of
Globalization The Case for Catalonia's Secession from Spain, BC Journal of International Affairs, Spring
2003, www.jhubc.it/bcjournal/articles/desquens.cfm
Current conventional wisdom in the European Union and the United States sees the issue of secession
as something outdated or even dangerous. Mainstream politicians, diplomats and academics tend to
present it as a senseless option at a moment in history where the focus is building a united Europe and a
free-trade world. The thought of the wars in the former Yugoslavia makes many fear such an option.
However, the situation in Catalonia, Flanders or Scotland is not comparable - these stateless nations
are well-established democratic societies that respect human rights and free-market economies
within the European Union. Thus, Catalans, Flemish or Scots cannot ignore that full political
independence remains a serious option for them. The desire for secession needs to be objectively
analyzed and the costs and benefits properly weighed.
A2: Secessionist Spillover (INTL)
1. First, it’s important to realize that what they’re saying on face is false. Sorens of
Al Jazeera finds in his historical analysis that there is no evidence that the
success of independence movements in one country causes independence
movements to become more successful in other countries.
2. Second, even if you don’t believe that, turn their argument for two reasons.
A. The Washington Post explains in 2017 that the Catalan independence
movement has actually weakened other secessionist movements across
Europe. Specifically, they cite the demobilization of secessionist movements
in Germany, Belgium, Denmark, and Scotland. These movements are
actually moving in favor of internal reform and negotiation, not outright
secession
B. Sorens of Dartmouth College writes that more independent nations and
secessionist movements can transform conflicts within nations into conflicts
between nations, which are much less likely to use open violence and more
likely to use things like sanctions or diplomacy. Even if this spreads, Sorens
quantifies that conflicts between nations cause 86% fewer deaths than civil
conflicts. That means on net we’re saving more lives than my opponents.
171219075614245.html
If minorities around the world enjoyed a right to independence, few would exercise it. In most places
with secession movements, evidence suggests only a minority of the population supports their aims.
Moreover, contrary to conventional wisdom, secessionism generally does not spread across borders.
Some evidence suggests that self-determination claims are more likely to arise when there are more
such claims in nearby countries, but no one has yet found that the success of independence movements
in one country causes independence movements to become more successful in nearby countries. Even
within countries, independence claims often do not spread. If Catalonia were allowed to become
independent, there is little chance that the Basque Country or Galicia would follow in the near future.
Unlike Catalonia, the Basque provinces enjoy tax autonomy and are not heavily taxed for the benefit of
the rest of Spain.
Noack, Rick. “Europe has plenty of secessionist movements like Catalonia. Most don’t want full
independence, though.” washingtonpost.com, The Washington Post, 10/11/17,
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/10/11/europe-has-many-independence-
movements-apart-from-catalonia-few-of-them-want-full-self-determination/?utm_term=.2f1e36b6e18d
Scotland’s 2014 “No” vote and the violence in the lead-up to this month’s independence referendum in
Catalonia appear to have weakened the independence drive elsewhere in Europe, too. In Belgium’s
Flemish-speaking Flanders region, reactions to the Catalan announcement on Tuesday were mostly
muted. Belgium is divided between the French-speaking Walloons and the Flemish. In addition to not
sharing a language, the two communities are split along historic and socio-economic lines. Yet, as is the
case in Germany’s Bavaria, the Flemish pro-independence party is currently part of the national
government and has seen little benefit in trying to capitalize on the chaotic Catalan secession efforts as
a role model for their region.
“Hearing: U.S. Policy Toward National Self-Determination Movements” Jason Sorens∗ March 15, 2016
(∗Lecturer, Department of Government, Dartmouth College)
http://docs.house.gov/meetings/FA/FA14/20160315/104672/HHRG-114-FA14-Wstate-SorensJ-
20160315.pdf
A legal path to independence can promote peace by constraining secessionists and central
governments to pursue their aims through electoral and legislative means. On the one hand,
secessionists have no excuse for resorting to violent tactics; to do so would be to admit failure to
persuade a majority of the people they claim to represent, while imposing costs of violence on the very
people they purport to represent and from whom they would have to recruit. On the other hand, central
governments often cannot commit to respecting a negotiated regional autonomy compromise without
also conceding a right to secede. The South Sudanese and Bougainvillean secessionists would probably
not have agreed to a peace deal without a referendum guarantee. These conflicts lasted 22 and nine
years, respectively. Authoritarian and especially nationalistic central governments will face both desire
and opportunity to renege on previously negotiated autonomy arrangements; only a right to secede
may be sufficient to deter them and thereby induce secessionist rebels to lay down arms in the first
place. I also find that central governments permitting a legal path to independence are more likely to
decentralize to ethnic minority regions and have never recentralized power in the post-World War II era
(Sorens 2012). If every country recognized its minority nations’ right to secede, only a few would
apparently exercise such a right. Moreover, the overall level of global violence would likely decline by
replacing intrastate conflicts with interstate conflicts. Intrastate conflicts are far more common than
interstate conflicts (see Figure 2). Since World War 2, civil conflicts have killed seven times more
people than interstate conflicts (Collier & Sambanis 2005, Data on Armed Conflict 2013). Civil wars last
much longer than interstate wars (Fearon 2004). Civil wars are also more likely to happen in more
populous countries (Fearon & Laitin 2003). These findings suggest that a global increase in the number
of independent states and a decrease in their average size would reduce the number of civil conflicts,
increase the number of interstate conflicts, and decrease the total number of conflict deaths.
Spillover Backlines
1. Levrat of the University of Geneva that historically, the European Union has
supported recognition of new nations, even if their parent nation didn’t
support it. Of the 27 nations that have declared independence in this way, the
EU has recognized 26 of them. These didn’t undermine international stability,
so there’s little probability that Catalonia will be uniquely different
2. The Stratfor Group confirms this, finding that because of Catalonia’s unique
situation, their movement won’t be replicated. They specifically write,
“Catalonia by no means offers an easy roadmap for others to follow”
3. Even if you don’t buy that, you can turn it against them. Noack of the
Washington Post reports in October that even after the Catalan referendum,
many of the other separatist regions in Europe are actually trying to DISTANCE
themselves from full out independence, instead moving in favor of internal
reform
2. Turn it again. The Atlantic explains in 2017 that if the Spanish government
continues to deny Catalonia independence then the secessionist movement will
gain greater sympathy from similar movements across Europe. This forces
secession on Spain in the con world.
All of the states that were formerly members of the Soviet Union held independence referenda without the
consent of the Soviet Union, and the Soviet Union initially objected to their declarations of independence. They
are all now recognized states. All of the states that were formerly members of Yugoslavia held independence
referenda without the consent of Yugoslavia, and Yugoslavia objected to their declarations of independence.
They are all now recognized states. As another example, Serbia opposed Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of
independence, and yet Kosovo is now recognized by 111 UN member states, including 23 European Union
member states.
The European Union is heavily involved in recognizing sub-state entities who have expressed their political will
to become independent. In fact, all European Union member states have recognized 26 of the 27 states that
have become independent since 1991. They are: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina,
Croatia, the Czech Republic, East Timor, Estonia, Eritrea, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania,
Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Russia, Serbia, the Slovak Republic, Slovenia, South Sudan, Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan.
Noack, Rick. “Europe has plenty of secessionist movements like Catalonia. Most don’t want full independence,
though.” The Washington Post. N.p., 11 Oct 2017. Web. 7 Dec 2017.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/10/11/europehas- many-independence-
movements-apart-from-catalonia-few-of-them-wantfull- self-determination/?utm_term=.a40363d0811a
Although there remains vocal support for her plans in Scotland, Sturgeon’s party still lost about a third
of its parliamentary seats in the general election this summer — likely putting an end to the Scottish
desire for independence, at least for now. Scotland’s 2014 “No” vote and the violence in the lead-up to
this month’s independence referendum in Catalonia appear to have weakened the independence drive
elsewhere in Europe, too. In Belgium’s Flemish-speaking Flanders region, reactions to the Catalan
announcement on Tuesday were mostly muted. Belgium is divided between the French-speaking Walloons
and the Flemish. In addition to not sharing a language, the two communities are split along historic and socio-
economic lines. Yet, as is the case in Germany’s Bavaria, the Flemish pro-independence party is currently
part of the national government and has seen little benefit in trying to capitalize on the chaotic Catalan
secession efforts as a role model for their region. The desire for more autonomy has also mostly
replaced the wish for full-fledged independence on the Faroe Islands, located about 800 miles from
Denmark’s capital Copenhagen, from where they are partially governed. The regional government for the
islands, which have a land area size of about 550 square miles, recently announced plans to expand their
self-government but stopped short of announcing its desire to break away completely.
Stratfor Worldview; 11/6/2017 (“Beyond Catalonia, taking stock of Europe’s separatist movements”;
https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/beyond-catalonia-taking- stock-europes-separatist-movements)
That is why Catalonia's push for secession from Spain makes the European Union nervous. In the past few
decades, not many self-determination movements within Europe have reached the magnitude of Catalonia's.
And other nations are closely watching the region's instability, fearing that it might ignite their own separatist
forces. But while many EU members will need to confront factors similar to those that drove the Catalan
secessionists, each specific movement is different, existing within its country's unique economic and political
context. And Catalonia by no means offers an easy roadmap for others to follow.
Nafees Hamid, 10-1-17, The Atlantic, How Spain Misunderstood the Catalan Independence Movement,
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/10/catalan-referendum-spain-
independence/541656/
According to our research, the top two sacred values motivating the Catalan movement were the right
to vote for independence and the protection of Catalan identity. In studies of conflicts around the world,
our colleagues have found that threats to sacred values and identities often lead to increased activism
and, sometimes, violence. The denial of a vote is a threat to these values and identity and, most likely,
will only further fuel the independence movement. Until recently, many supporters of the referendum
have been undecided on the question of independence. However, the denial of the vote by Madrid has
outraged some, turning them into pro-independence activists. Denying Catalans their vote may only
increase the sense of distrust towards Madrid from Spain’s other regions, such as Galicia and Basque
country, both of which have had their own independence movements of varying degrees of popularity.
Many Spaniards do not have confidence in the country's democratic institutions. For example, the
People’s Party, the current ruling party, has been implicated in 65 cases of corruption. President
Mariano Rajoy has stood by many of those involved, causing many to question their government’s
interest in the public good.
A2: EU Fracturing
Link Turn/Block
1. First look to our observation. The resolution is asking if Spain should willingly
grant Catalonia independence. That’s really important because the University
of Barcelona writes that this situation wouldn’t kick Catalonia out of the EU or
UN.
2. Second, they’re just historically incorrect. Less than a decade, Kosovo declared
independence from Serbia, which at the time was an EU member state. The EU
ended up overwhelmingly supporting their entry into the EU, and now even
Serbia voted yes to allow Kosovo entry, and now the EU is stronger than ever.
Saying the EU allowing Catalonia entry will somehow cause a splintering over
separatist causes is ignoring history.
3. Third, a big turn. Watkinson of Canterbury University reports that by refusing to
act to discipline Spain for their human rights abuses against Catalonia, the EU
loses their ability to enforce foreign policy because it makes them seem
hypocritical. The Academy for Cultural Democracy confirms this, writing that if
the EU preaches a value of human rights and then allows rights abuses in their
own union, their position is severely diminished when attempting to protect
democracy abroad.
a. If you want a perfect example of this, look to Russia. Politico reports
in October that Putin used the EU ignoring Catalan rights as an excuse
to abuse the rights of his citizens.
4. Finally, turn this again. Yaroufakis of Project Syndicate reports that the Catalan
independence movement allows a unique chance at reform within how the EU
deals with regional governments. They further that this could set a precedent
that could better EU practices in the future.
Antonio Castells, Professor of Public Finance, University of Barcelona, “Six Comments on the Economic Viability of
Independence and Two Preliminary Remarks,” trans. Miquel Strubell, THE ECONOMY OF CATALONIA: QUESTIONS
AND ANSWERS ON THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF INDEPENDENCE, Comissió d’Economia Catalana, 2014, p. 44.
However – and here we enter the second phase of the game – if, despite these efforts, independence were to become
inevitable, it is not unrealistic to think that the EU would seek to make sure it causes the least possible damage. After
all, to try to prevent the greater of two evils is a perfectly reasonable standard of conduct in politics, and for the EU
the greatest evil would be for Catalonia to achieve independence as a result of a harmful and hard conflict. This would
mean agreement, negotiation, and maintaining normality as far as possible. It would also mean changing the
European situation as little as possible. The reasons in favour of this are very similar to those previously mentioned:
upheaval and instability are in no one’s interests and, above all, an acrimonious, non-negotiated split would certainly
be very harmful to Catalonia (and probably beyond its capabilities) and also extremely bad for Spain. The issue of debt
distribution would be one of the key reasons for this. In short, Catalonia cannot afford to stay out of the euro and the
EU. This issue cannot be side-stepped or passed over in silence. But neither does this mean that Catalonia is inevitably
a hostage to Spain in the negotiations. And the fact that it is not a hostage should not lead anyone, as sometimes
seems to happen, to embark on a game in which each side appears to want to provoke the most extreme reactions
from the opposing side. Far from it: it should lead to the belief that the conflict can only be solved through agreement
and negotiation. Even in order to achieve independence.
Watkinson, Edmund. “Why Catalonia matters for EU foreign policy,” Canterbury University, 2017,
https://www.canterbury.ac.uk/social-and-applied-sciences/psychology-politics-and-
sociology/cefeus/docs/students-blogs/Why-Catalonia-matters-for-EU-foreign-policy-Edmund-
Watkinson.pdf
EU inaction against Spain drains its soft power. A union defending human rights now seems to allow
abuse on its own doorstep. The EU’s bank of soft power is crucial to its presence as a moral actor that
can act and enforce foreign policy. The EU has to compel others to act in a moral fashion as it would like. If it can’t compel its own member states to act as such, it
can’t compel others. Attempting to do so under present conditions would likely be laughed at.
Tuomioja, Erkki. “The Role of Soft Power in EU Common Foreign Policy,” Academy for Cultural
Diplomacy, 2009,
http://www.culturaldiplomacy.org/academy/content/articles/speakers/detailed/erkki-tuomioja/erkki-
tumioja_-_the-role-of-soft-power-in-eu-common-foreign-policy.pdf
Thirdly, by not living up to the values it preaches and the standards it sets for others. The fact that the EU has members
states like Bulgaria, Italy or Romania seriously damages our credibility when trying to further good governance, human rights and
democratic values in our neighbourhood, or the world at large. [Granted, it may perversely increase the attraction of the European
perspective for those who are worried about the potential negative effects of EU legislation for old elites and/or new oligarchs.]
Varoufakis, Yanis. “Spain’s Crisis Is Europe’s Opportunity by Yanis Varoufakis.” Project Syndicate, 6 Oct.
2017, www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/catalonia-crisis-new-european-sovereignty-by-yanis-
varoufakis-2017-10.
Catalonia provides an excellent case study of Europe’s broader conundrum. Choosing between an
authoritarian Spanish state and a “make Catalonia great again” nationalism is equivalent to choosing
between Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the President of the Eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers, and Marine
Le Pen, the leader of France’s far-right National Front: austerity or disintegration. The duty of
progressive Europeans is to reject both: the deep establishment at the EU level and the competing
nationalisms ravaging solidarity and common sense in member states like Spain .The alternative is to
Europeanize the solution to a problem caused largely by Europe’s systemic crisis. Instead of impeding
local and regional democratic governance, the EU should be fostering it. The EU treaties could be
amended to enshrine the right of regional governments and city councils, like Catalonia’s and
Barcelona’s, to fiscal autonomy and even to their own fiscal money. They could also be allowed to
implement their own policies on refugees and migration.If there was still demand for statehood and
separation from the internationally recognized state to which they belong, the EU could invoke a code
of conduct for secession. For example, the EU could stipulate that it will sanction an independence
referendum if the regional government requesting it has already won an election on such a platform
with an absolute majority of the voters. Moreover, the referendum should be held at least one year
after the election, to allow for a proper, sober debate.
EU Bad Response
1. First, mitigate their impact. De Burca of the European University Institute
reports that the EU is no longer crucial to maintaining peace. Things like NATO
and Economic Interdependence are more important in ensuring peaceful
relations between European states.
2. Second, turn it. De Burca again reports that while the EU was once a
powerhouse for economic and social change, now its policies have been
increasing unemployment and worsening member state economic conditions.
de Búrca, Gráinne [Professor of Law, NYU. Formerly Professor at Harvard Law School, Fordham Law
School, and the European University Institute (EUI) and a fellow of Somerville College and lecturer in law
at Oxford University]. “Europe’s Raison d’être”. European University Institute Academy of European
Law. 2013. Web. Accessed December 14, 2017.
http://cadmus.eui.eu/bitstream/handle/1814/28098/AEL_2013_02.pdf?sequence=3&i sAllowed=y
The first concerns the relative success of the EU in delivering peace and prosperity for some years. It
seems that some of these achievements of European integration – and particularly the ‘peace dividend’
– came to be taken for granted, perhaps not even really associated any longer with the existence of the
EU. Consequently, the EU may no longer be seen as important for ensuring peaceful relations between
European states.
de Búrca, Gráinne [Professor of Law, NYU. Formerly Professor at Harvard Law School, Fordham Law
School, and the European University Institute (EUI) and a fellow of Somerville College and lecturer in
law at Oxford University]. “Europe’s Raison d’être”. European University Institute Academy of
European Law. 2013. Web. Accessed December 14, 2017.
http://cadmus.eui.eu/bitstream/handle/1814/28098/AEL_2013_02.pdf?sequence=3&i sAllowed=y
The third and related reason for the EU’s raison d’être being in question again today is that which has
been outlined above: namely the nature and severity of the crisis in which the EU finds itself at present.
The situation today is one in which the ‘prosperity’ enjoyed for some decades by many EU member
states has been severely undermined. More specifically, it is not just that the EU is failing to deliver
prosperity, but on the contrary it is seen to be actively imposing austerity and hardship. The EU is
perceived today as one of the agents of socio-economic distress, and a significant causal factor in the
nature and degree of economic and social pain being felt in many European states, including Spain,
Greece, Ireland and others. By iron-casting the requirements of balanced budgets and debt-reduction,
and in the absence of deflationary options, EU policies strictly limit the options of states facing growing
unemployment and low or no growth, and the EU is seen to be worsening the social and economic
conditions of its citizens.
A2: Catalan Nationalism
1. They talk about how Catalonia is a hotbed for nationalism, but the Spanish
government is the cause for the social unrest. Beramendi of the Council on
Foreign Relations reports that Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy has been
systematically denying Catalans their legal rights since the beginning of the
Catalan crisis, citing the need for a greater Spain.
2. Not only that, but Vila of the Washington Post reports that the only way that
Spain’s Prime Minister is able to consistently win reelection is by stoking ethnic
nationalism, driving the Spanish electorate to be radical. By voting pro, you are
dealing a decisive blow to Prime Minister Rajoy and his politics of nationalism
Pablo Beramendi, Council on Foreign Relations, Can Catalonia Split With Spain?, Sept. 29, 2017,
https://www.cfr.org/interview/can-catalonia-split-spain
Rajoy is a diehard Spanish nationalist. Self-servingly, he interprets the process as a legal matter. His
position is that all democratic parties have to be with him, almost as if Spain were again fighting [the
Basque terrorist group] ETA. In my view, he and his party are confusing the nature of the challenge. This
is not a disheveled mass of people trying to break protocol or procedure. This is a political community
asking for a redrafting of its contract with the rest of the state, and the strategy that worked against ETA
and its supporters is bound to fail in this case. It would have been far less costly, far more acceptable
from a democratic standpoint, and far more effective never to have challenged the Estatut in 2006, and
instead open the door to mutually agreed reform that would include a referendum with clear
procedures and implications. At this point, however, this is not something Spanish conservatives (or
most socialists, for that matter) are remotely willing to entertain. Both in 2006 and now, their
unwillingness to negotiate is driven by ideological and, more importantly perhaps, myopic electoral
considerations.
Nando Vila [host and producer at Fusion TV], “How the Spanish government is pushing Catalans to
support independence,” Washington Post, October 5 2017. Available at:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2017/10/05/how- the-spanish-
government-is-pushing-catalans-to-support-independence/?utm_term=.b067c75013be
But as support for the separatists grew over the past several years, Rajoy would get more and more
Spaniards to rally behind his hardline stance. This is how he was able to win reelection in 2015, as the
Catalan monotema grew bigger and bigger. Stirring up nationalist sentiment and playing up a common
enemy is, after all, a time-honored way for a government in power to distract from voters’ economic
misery. Meanwhile, the conservative Charles Puigdemont won tumultuous 2015 regional elections in
Catalonia that were billed as a plebiscite on independence. He sat atop a coalition of strange bedfellows
that included anti-capitalist radicals side by side with austerity-loving right- wingers.
A2: Euro Good/New Currency Bad
1. First, delink them. Parada of EastWest explains in 2017 that Catalonia could still
use the euro without EU consent similar to Kosovo and Montenegro.
Economist David Ros warrants that no economic agent in Europe or the world
wants Catalonia to leave the Euro.
2. Even if you don’t buy that you can turn their argument. Hamish of the
Independent explains that euro is inflexible has created high levels of
unemployment and poverty in Catalonia. By voting pro and freeing Catalonia
from the euro’s influence it will increase employment and decrease poverty,
which also creates an economic stimulus (cross apply later if they read more
econ)
McRae, Hamish. “Catalonia could be an extremely successful economy and EU member state.” The Independent.
N.p., 28 Oct 2017. Web. 7 Dec 2017. <http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/catalonia-spain-independence-
voteeconomy- population-location-trade-currency-a8025051.html>.
There are a string of practical questions. What currency would Catalonia use? It would probably have to establish its
own, as it would be difficult to continue to use the euro, even informally. In the long run, a separate currency might
well to be the country’s benefit, for the inflexibility that the euro has imposed on Spain is one of the reasons why it
has such high unemployment. But in the immediate days and months after independence, this would be very
disruptive. It would be difficult for the banks based there, some of which have said they would relocate their legal
headquarters. It would also be difficult for business and tourism. My guess is that an independent Catalonia would
be welcomed into the EU if it still wanted to rejoin, but that could take a decade. In the meantime we are seeing
hostility from the EU. As for the other major countries, while their present stance of not recognising Catalonia is
quite understandable and correct, if and when the country became truly independent, they have no option but to
accept reality. But – and this is important – there is a considerable economic cost to political disruption on this scale.
The call for calm by Catalonia’s sacked leader Carles Puigdemont is sensible and strikes a helpful tone. Let’s see
what happens. But if the end does turn out to be a new European country, then in another decade it is likely to be a
prosperous one.
Parada, Guiomar. [Reporter for East West]. “The economic challenge of an independent Catalonia,”
EastWest. 21 September 2017.
Catalonia could actually continue to use the euro even without an EU consent, like Kosovo and
Montenegro. ”No economic agent in Europe or in the world would want Catalonia to leave the euro,”
said economist David Ros, a member of the College of Economists in Catalonia. ”For the ECB it would
entail little more than changing a zip code, and it would be in its interest, and in that of the EU, if the
goal is to preserve the integrity of the European single market, its unified payment system, supervision
over systemic risk, liquidity….”
A2: Spanish Corruption
1. They say Catalan independence distracts from corruption, but we’re gonna turn
this argument against them. Vila of the Washington Post reports that the only
way that Spain’s Prime Minister is able to consistently win reelection is by
stoking ethnic nationalism, driving the Spanish electorate to be radical. By
voting pro, you are dealing a decisive blow to Prime Minister Rajoy and his
politics of nationalism
Nando Vila [host and producer at Fusion TV], “How the Spanish government is pushing Catalans to
support independence,” Washington Post, October 5 2017. Available at:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2017/10/05/how- the-spanish-
government-is-pushing-catalans-to-support-independence/?utm_term=.b067c75013be
But as support for the separatists grew over the past several years, Rajoy would get more and more
Spaniards to rally behind his hardline stance. This is how he was able to win reelection in 2015, as the
Catalan monotema grew bigger and bigger. Stirring up nationalist sentiment and playing up a common
enemy is, after all, a time-honored way for a government in power to distract from voters’ economic
misery. Meanwhile, the conservative Charles Puigdemont won tumultuous 2015 regional elections in
Catalonia that were billed as a plebiscite on independence. He sat atop a coalition of strange bedfellows
that included anti-capitalist radicals side by side with austerity-loving right- wingers.
A2: Catalan Economy
1. First, Al Jazeera explains that most European economists agree that Catalonia’s
GDP would remain stable in the short-term and grow 7% in the long-term since
it wouldn’t have to pay taxes anymore.
2. Second, the OECD reports that an independent Catalonia would have a GDP of
$314 billion making it the 34th largest economy in the world. It has enough
financial resources to sustain itself.
3. The harms they talk about are over-exaggerated, Catalonia is actually in a
pretty good spot economically. DW News reports in November that Catalonia is
currently doing better than most EU countries, having higher GDP growth than
the EU, and ranking as one of the top exporters in the world.
4. Desquens of Johns Hopkins University reports that unless Spain institutes an
embargo on Catalonia, there actually won’t be many economic harms on either
side. We tell you this won’t happen because the pro’s advocacy is not forced
secession, but agreed secession from both Spain and Catalonia.
“Can Spain's economy survive a Catalan secession?” 30 Sept 2017

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/09/spain-economy-survive-catalan-secession-
170930163702214.html
The issue is much debated among both camps, who generally present widely different figures, often
based on different methodologies and hypotheses. If independence were to happen, Spain's economy
ministry claims that Catalonia would leave the European Union, its GDP would fall 25 to 30 percent and
unemployment would double. But some economists believe that the newly formed republic would stay
in the EU, predicting its GDP would remain stable in the short term and rise seven percent long term.
Catalonia's government also says the region would no longer suffer from what it calls a "fiscal deficit",
given that the region pays more in taxes to Madrid than it gets back. The regional executive says this
deficit is around 16 billion euro, or eight percent of Catalonia's GDP and the central government, with a
different methodology, estimates it to be 10 billion euro, or five percent of regional GDP.
Alexander, Harriet. “Why Does Catalonia Want Independence from Spain?” The Telegraph, Telegraph
Media Group, 5 Oct. 2017, www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/does-catalonia-want-independence-spain/.
Secession would therefore cost Spain almost 20 per cent of its economic output, and trigger a row about
how Catalonia would return 52.5 billion euros of debt it owes to the country’s central administration. It
would have a gross domestic product of $314 billion (£195bn), according to calculations by the OECD,
which would make it the 34th largest economy in the world. That would make it bigger than Portugal
or Hong Kong. Its GDP per capita would be $35,000, which would make it wealthier than South Korea,
Israel or Italy. And Catalonia's contribution to the Spanish economy is twice that of Scotland’s to the UK.
http://www.dw.com/en/imagining-an-independent-catalan-economy/a-40904836
Its GDP growth rate is currently outpacing the eurozone average — earlier this year, the Catalan regional
government predicted a GDP growth rate for the region of 2.7 percent for 2017, ahead of the IMF's
most recent GDP growth projection for the eurozone of 2.1 percent. In terms of international trade, an
independent Catalonia — based on 2016 figures — would be a significant player. According to official
Spanish government figures, Catalan exports were valued at 65 billion euros in 2016, which would rank
it in the top 40 worldwide and in the top 15 of EU nations.
Josep Desquens, B.A. in Business Administration, Master's in International Relations from Johns Hopkins
University, Programme Manager at the European Union, Europe's Stateless Nations in the Era of
Globalization The Case for Catalonia's Secession from Spain, BC Journal of International Affairs, Spring
2003, www.jhubc.it/bcjournal/articles/desquens.cfm
A central theme in the anti-secessionist economic discourse is based on the fact that Spain is the main
market of Catalonia. Thus, seceding from Spain would result in an economic catastrophe because
Catalonia would lose its main market. The flaw in this argument is that there is no reason to expect
Spanish trade embargoes or a boycott of Catalan products, particularly in the E.U. context. Secondly,
Spanish citizens buy Catalan products due to their quality and price and not for some abstract Spanish
national solidarity. Therefore, as long as secession does not increase the prices or lower the quality of
Catalan products, no loss of market should occur. Finally, this argument overlooks an important reality:
It is normal for a country that its main market is a neighboring country, particularly in the case of small
countries. The Netherlands and Denmark's largest trading partner is Germany; Belgium's is France;
Portugal's largest market is Spain, yet there is no suggestion that Portugal reunite with Spain.
F2: Tourism
CX: Why has tourism decreased? —Try to make them say violence
1. First, on face, recognize that we’re going to turn this argument. Burgen of The
Guardian explains that the decrease in tourism to Catalonia has been because
of violence between Catalans and Spanish police, not the independence
movement itself. That’s really important because Burgen furthers that if
Catalonia were independent its tourism would actually stabilize with the
removal of national police and confrontational violence.
Stephen Burgen 10-20-17, "Catalonia tourism slumps 15% since referendum violence," Guardian,
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/20/catalonia-tourism-slumps-15-since-referendum-
violence
Tourism to Catalonia has slumped by 15% in the two weeks since the region’s
controversial referendum on independence, according to industry experts.
August’s terror attacks in Barcelona and the seaside resort of Cambrils, which left
16 people dead, scarcely dented tourist numbers, but images of police violence and
huge rallies around the 1 October vote on independence are taking their toll. There
has been no sign of tensions easing between the Catalan and Spanish governments following the
vote, which has led to Spain’s biggest political crisis for 40 years, and has seen thousands turn
out on the streets for opposing protests for and against the independence movement.
F2: Spain blocks Catalonia in EU
1. This resolution is not asking if Catalonia should forcefully break away, it’s
asking if Spain should GRANT Catalonia its independence. If Spain would do
something like grant an entire region independence, they logically wouldn’t
block them from entering EU
2. Second, we can totally circumvent their harms because according to Agusti of
Via Empresa News that Catalonia would be welcomed into the European Free
Trade Association, which Spain can’t block them from entry into. With this, they
would enjoy full trading rights with Europe without tariffs.
3. McRae of the Independent writes that Spain lacks the political capital among
EU member states to block it from entering the EU. McRae writes that with its
viability, there is no logical reason why Catalonia would be blocked
4. Even if you don’t buy that, Ferrando of the EU Observer writes that the EU
would be likely to set up an entry process for Catalonia, giving them more
pragmatic solutions in the short term.
Hamish Mcrae, 9-30-2017, "The Catalan independence referendum is a much bigger issue for the EU
than Brexit," Independent, http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/catalonia-catalan-referendum-spain-
eu-economic-powerhouse-brexit-european-union-a7975766.html
Legally, Spain would be able to push an independent Catalonia out, but in the real world of European
politics it would be hard for the rest of Europe to exclude a country that wanted to remain a member –
or to be technically more correct, to rejoin. In economic terms Catalonia will be fully viable and there is
no practical reason why it should not continue to use the euro, even if technically it were for a time
outside the EU.
JORDI SOLE I FERRANDO (The writer is secretary general of the European Free Alliance party) 30. SEP
2013 “Would an independent Catalonia remain in the EU?” https://euobserver.com/opinion/121565
On 11 September 2013, 2 million Catalan citizens reached out forming a human chain over 400
kilometres long. This impressive demonstration, known as “Catalan Way to Independence,” showed,
once again, that a huge majority of the Catalan people (around 80 percent according to the polls) wants
to exercise the right to decide on their own future as a nation, and that a majority would choose
independence (around 55 percent, excluding those still undecided). But so far Spain is not allowing this
democratic choice to take place. Meanwhile, on EU membership, many contradictory statements are
being made on how Europe can or should respond to emerging new states within its very borders. Some
days after the National Day and huge civic demonstration, the Spanish member of the European
Commission, Joaquin Almunia, declared – other commissioners followed suit - that an independent
Catalonia would automatically remain outside the EU and would need to go through a complex
negotiation and accession process in order to be part of the EU again. Ironically enough, the same
commissioner said exactly the opposite one year ago, before Spanish diplomatic pressure started. Here
are some points to clarify the issue. 1) EU treaties are silent on what happens when a part of a member
state becomes independent. The possibility of internal enlargement, that is, an enlargement of the EU
with new states resulting from self-determination processes within current EU member states, is neither
explicitly rejected nor explicitly foreseen by the treaties. So all statements by the EU institutions and
their representatives are political in nature and not juridical. 2) In previous unforeseen situations the EU
has adopted common sense solutions based on negotiation and agreement. It was pragmatic when East
Germany merged with West Germany or when Greenland chose to leave the EU despite being part of a
member state (Denmark). There is no reason why the EU will not be pragmatic with Catalonia. 3)
Catalonia meets all requirements and criteria to remain in the EU and has been applying EU legislation
for a long time, so Catalonia would not have to go through a full accession process. For sure, concrete
matters must be renegotiated, such as quotas for representation in the EU institutions or Catalonia's
contribution to the budget, but this negotiation should be short and unproblematic and does not have
to be conducted from a status of non-membership. Moreover, all Catalan citizens acquired certain rights
and freedoms through their European citizenship. Rights cannot be taken away so easily, particularly
when citizens democratically decide to leave a member state but not the EU. 4) Democracy is a
fundamental principle enshrined in the European Treaties. The EU is committed to the promotion of
democracy within the Union and around the globe. The EU cannot and should not punish Catalans just
for exercising this basic principle. 5) It is within the economic interests of the EU and of its member
states – including Spain - to have an independent Catalonia within the EU. Member states, in defence of
their citizens and companies' interests, will be keen to see Catalonia remaining within the EU. Will the
EU really let go of a south European country that has great commercial potential, a strategic location,
and is a net contributor to EU coffers? In times of economic hardship, are we really going to exclude
parts of Europe and risk de-solidarising the European integration project? The Spanish government
believes it can cast fear and doubt among Catalan people by arguing that an independent state would
see it outside the EU and isolated from the international community. But its argument is not based on
solid ground.
F2: No Action Until 2027
1. This is ridiculous, the EU decides their own docket at the beginning of every
session. They can just decide to allow the entrance of Catalonia earlier
2. Even if you don’t buy that, this doesn’t materialize into a harm. Kosovo is a
nation that declared independence from an EU member state, Serbia. They’re
currently in the process of entering the EU, and they have provisional FTA with
European countries that has helped their economy until they’re fully admitted.
3. Look to Empirical Examples. Slovakia, which engaged in a velvet divorce in the
90s, and things turned out fine. Roxburgh of the New Statesman reports that
Slovakia gained immediate entry into the IMF and World Bank, and it took
them 19 days to get into the UN
ANGUS ROXBURGH (Angus Roxburgh is a former BBC foreign correspondent) 6 MARCH 2014 “Slovakia:
life after the velvet divorce” https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/03/slovakia-life-after-
velvet-divorce
In conversations with Slovak politicians and observers, I have heard the same upbeat point again and
again: “We have grown up politically. We don’t have anyone else to blame any more. We are
responsible for our own decisions.” The experience of Slovakia’s re-emergence as a state certainly
dispels some of the myths surrounding Scotland’s likely fate after a Yes vote. Even though the “divorce”
was rushed through in a matter of months, allowing little time for negotiations (which the Scots are told
would be fiendishly complex), Slovakia was admitted to international institutions such as the World
Bank and IMF from day one, and became a member of the United Nations after just 19 days.
Czechoslovakia was not a member of the European Union at the time but both new countries went on
to join the EU in 2004, and it was Slovakia, not the Czech Republic (previously seen as economically
more vibrant), that was first to adopt the euro, in the days when that was a mark of respectability.
F2: Uncertainty
1. First, Senior Eurozone economist Angel Talavera explains that increased
political tensions have caused uncertainty to surge the highest levels in over a
decade. Hunt of Express Magazine explains that granting independence now
through legal channels will diminish uncertainty, while having it forced upon
Spain unilaterally will cause it to persist.
2. Cross apply (2-T)
3. Finally, the pro side actually solves for this. The Barcelona Center for
International Affairs reports that an agreed secession between Spain and
Catalonia directly reduces market uncertainty and increases business
confidence
4. Forbes reports that investors often set their sights on emerging regions because
they have more power in remodeling their economic structure to fit their
interests. That’s why they conclude Catalonia would see a sharp rise in FDI.
Thomas Hunt, 12-26, 17, Daily Express, Euro Plummets on Christmas day,
https://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/896627/euro-EU-crash-dollar-computer-algorithms-Spain-
Catalonia
XTB analyst Joaquín Robles said: "We are perhaps facing the worst scenario for the interests of Spanish
investors, since it is most likely that the pro-independence group will return to rule.” He added that
the search for independence through the legal channels, instead of unilaterally, would "reassure"
investors. Moody’s believed the electoral result illustrated “the persistent” polarisation of the Catalans
and it is "negative" for the economic growth of Spain.
Rym Ayadi, Leonidas Paroussos, Kostas Fragkiadakis, Stella Tsani, Pantelis Capros, Carlo Sessa, Riccardo Enei and
Marc Gafarot. "Scenarios of Macro-economic Development for Catalonia on Horizon 2030" Barcelona Center for
International Affairs. 15 Jul. 2015. Web. 7 Dec. 2017.
<https://www.vilaweb.cat/media/continguts/000/104/312/312.pdf>
As expected Catalonia benefits more under mutual agreement on secession as the lower
uncertainties and risks associated with secession in this case allow for a faster recovery of the
economy from the shock of independence from Spain. These conclusions favor a scenario for
secession under mutual agreement between Catalonia and Spain and an orderly planning
towards resolution as opposing to a scenario of unilateral secession. It thus reduces any
uncertainty and risks which effects are detrimental to all parties.
Iese Business School 15, 7-16-2015, "Where To Invest? Ranking 120 Countries On Their Private Equity
Attractiveness," Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/iese/2015/07/16/where-to-invest-ranking-120-
countries-on-their-private-equity-attractiveness/#50fd36040069
The authors note that private equity investors will often set their sights on
emerging regions, in search of new transactions with satisfying risk/reward
ratios. Among the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), China –
ranked 21st this year – stands out for its attractiveness due to its economic
growth, capital markets development and favorable taxation practices for
entrepreneurs. That said, China has remained relatively stable in the rankings,
climbing just one spot in five years. However, despite the economic soundness of
the BRICS and other emerging markets (e.g. Mexico, Indonesia, the Philippines,
Nigeria and Turkey who all have large populations and strong economic catch-up
potential), corporate governance indicators (with the exception of South Africa)
and investor protection still remain obstacles.
F2: Business Pullout
1. What they’re saying isn’t true. Radio France International reports that Catalan
companies aren’t pulling out of the region or closing, they’re just moving their
legal addresses. It’s totally normal during periods of political uncertainty and
has no effect on GDP or employment in the region.
Jan Van Der Made. "Would Catalonian independence bring benefits or economic meltdown?." RFI. 21 Dec. 2017.
Web. 3 Jan. 2018. <http://en.rfi.fr/europe/20171220-catalonia-independent-benefits-or-economic-meltdown>
RFI: There have been reports of companies moving out of the region. How bad is it? Morato: This is very bad. Especially in psychological terms. There were about 3.000 companies that started
the process of moving to other places. But “moving” is not really moving. It is just moving the legal domicile in another
place. Workers are not leaving yet. Value-added creation is not leaving - yet. Basically they move the legal address. It’s like going
to the notary and saying that instead of sending the letters to this address, I want them to be send to another. But according to our data, of all the companies that
started this process, only 10 percent have completed the move.The rest still have time. There are
three months to finish it, so we don’t know yet how many will do it for sure. In terms of employment
and income, this is not going to be noticed in the short term. But who knows. It may be that some of those companies start moving part of
their production processes.
A2: Tariffs
1. What they’re saying is just untrue. Coufalova of Marasyk University reports that
neither Spain nor Catalonia would heavily enforce tariffs because they see open
trade as mutually beneficial. Moreover, Coufalova also reports that Catalonia
could easily sign trade pacts with their European trading partners. She says that
any prospect of a Catalan trade war is “completely unrealistic”
Coufalova, Prof Economics & Administration @ Masaryk Univ, Czech Republic; 2017 (Lucie; Politiologicka
Revue; 1; “Lost Credibility: Who Should Be Blamed for the Increasing Support for Separatism in
Catalonia?”; P. 146-147)
Regarding the potential independence of Catalonia, Paluzie (2015) summarizes three negative effects on
international trade traditionally attributed to Catalan secession: a boycott of the regions’ products, a
new border effect and newly implemented tariffs and additional expenses due to a different currency.
The last effect is considered by the author as completely unrealistic, as an independent Catalonia
could sign bilateral agreements with its European trading partners as Switzerland and Turkey have
done.10 This argument seems to be reasonable, given that if two countries trade, it is because this trade
is profitable to both of them. It is therefore obvious that potential trade barriers between Catalonia
and Spain, as well as between Catalonia and other European trading partners, would harm both sides.
Furthermore, a unilateral decision to pay in euros is a real possibility. However, the other two factors
might influence in some way the level of Catalan foreign trade and therefore its gross domestic product.
A2: Spanish Economy
1. Enero of the Apiumhub explains that the most important Spanish companies
are rarely exposed to Catalonia. That’s why he concludes that Catalan
independence would have a minimal impact on the Spanish economy.
2. Turn this against them. Banal of the University of London reports that without
Catalonia, Spain would be forced to develop and modernize its economy in
other regions, triggering greater economic growth for the long term.
3. Turn it again. The University of London explains that because Catalonia has a
distinct culture, in the pro world Spain would become more culturally
homogenous. Harvard University quantifies that a 2% increase in cultural
homogeneity causes a 13% increase in GDP. The National Review warrants that
people of the same culture are more inclined to work with one another, have
similar market preferences, and a common language.
4. In a Reuters article from two days ago the head of the Bank of Spain stated that
the effect of Catalan independence on the Spanish economy would be
negligible.
5. Turn it. Senior Eurozone economist Angel Talavera explains that increased
political tensions have caused uncertainty to surge the highest levels in over a
decade. The Elcado Royal Institute finds that uncertainty and lack of confidence
from the crisis will reduce Spanish economic growth by 60% over the next two
years. That’s why they conclude the only way to ensure the stability of the
Spanish economy is to make Catalonia independent. That’s going to outweigh
all the harms my opponents tell you.
Jofre-Bonet, Mireia and Banal-Estanol, Albert. [both are Professors of Economics from City, University of
London]. “Catalonia, Spain and the economic consequences of a split,” The Conversation. 12 October
2017.
Despite the inevitable transition costs for both sides, there may also be some benefits to a split. The
new Spanish state would lose a dynamic economy with better economic indicators than its average in
terms of GDP, unemployment, exports and innovation. But this may trigger greater economic
development and modernisation in its remaining regions.
Enero, David. [Works for a Tech Hub called Apiumhub]. “Catalinia’s Economic Impact of the
Referendum,” Apiumhub. 16 November 2017.
In front of all these positions that defend the worst case if Catalonia gets the autonomy stand those
who, on the opposite site, claim that the Catalan economic impact or the Spanish one won’t be even
affected. An analyst for the Société Générale states that “the actual exposure of Ibex 35 companies
to Catalonia is minimal” That is good news for the Spanish economy. There is a 34% of revenue
coming from inside Spain for those companies and a 50% of investors away from the European
Union, that is a huge amount of business outside of the Spanish market.
Jofre-Bonet, Mireia and Banal-Estanol, Albert. [both are Professors of Economics from City,
University of London]. “Catalonia, Spain and the economic consequences of a split,” City, University
of London’s Press Office. 18 October 2017.
Catalonia would of course need to invest in creating new state structures, such as embassies and a
central bank. This may cost more than what Catalonia pays now as a proportion of the same
structures for a larger state. Conversely, the new Spanish government could use the split as an
opportunity to simplify its own administrative structures, as the preferences of the rest of the
Spanish population would be more homogeneous without Catalonia.
Kevin D. Williamson 14, 8-10-2014, "Homogeneity Is Their Strength," National Review,
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/385035/homogeneity-their-strength-kevin-d-williamson
We are more inclined to share and to cooperate with people to whom we are related, and we are most
likely to trust faces that look like our own. When President Obama noted that if he had a son, that son
would look like Trayvon Martin, he was giving voice to a natural inclination, perhaps a more powerful
one than he understands. (Nearly 200 Latino men have been murdered in Los Angeles County in the past
twelve months, but they don’t look like President Obama.) I’ve always had some contempt for the idea
that Mae Jemison wouldn’t be an astronaut if she hadn’t seen Nichelle Nichols playing Lieutenant Uhura
on Star Trek, but perhaps I am understating the power of identification. Jamelle Bouie points to a
disturbing study in which white subjects were more likely to support harsh criminal-justice measures
when they were given the impression that prison populations are even more disproportionately black
than they actually are.
Reuters Editorial 18, 1-17-2018, "Bank of Spain head says Catalonia effect on GDP won't be ,"
U.S., https://www.reuters.com/article/spain-gdp-catalonia/bank-of-spain-head-says-catalonia-
effect-on-gdp-wont-be-brutal-idUSR4N1P402F
The Catalan process will affect Spain’s gross domestic product growth this year but not significantly,
Bank of Spain Governor Luis Maria Linde said at an economic forum in Moscow on Wednesday. “I
can tell you that no doubt this situation is going to have an impact on the Spanish GDP growth this
year but, to the best of our understanding, not very brutal,” the bank’s head said.
F2: Doubles Unemployment
This evidence doesn’t say number of unemployed people will double. Catalonia has
comparatively lower unemployment than the rest of Spain so that brings down Spain’s
overall unemployment rate. Without Catalonia that number increases but the actual
number of unemployed people doesn’t change. It’s a matter of numbers and averages.
F2: Spanish Econ Relies on Catalonia
 60% loss of economic growth outweighs the 20% of the GDP that Catalonia
contributes. Cross apply responses 2,3 from above.
A2: Tourism
1. Forbes Magazine writes yesterday that tourism has risen by 7% in Spain since
the beginning of 2018. Clearly that Catalan crisis isn’t having the effect my
opponents are talking about.
Michael Goldstein 17, 6-10-2017, "#TouristGoHome? Spain Becomes World's #2 Tourist Destination,"
Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelgoldstein/2018/01/18/touristgohome-spain-becomes-
worlds-2-tourist-destination/#72a363fb4f20
World tourism rose an astounding 7% in 2017 according to a UN study, despite terrorism,

cataclysmic weather and the growing #touristgohome movement. France was once again the
most popular nation to visit, as in 2016 when it had 82.6 million visitors. The biggest change
came in the second and third most popular countries. The United States slipped to world's third-
most-popular destination, while Spain rose to the second-most popular destination. Spain's
prime minister announced that tourism now provides 11% of Spain's gross domestic product,
rising 12% to 87 billion Euros in 2017.
A2: Debt
1. First, recognize that what they’re saying isn’t an issue. Giugliano of Bloomberg
News reports that the current debt requirement in the EU is not enforced to
any member country. In fact, if it were enforced, Spain would be expelled from
the EU since their debt-to-GDP ratio is about 100%. An independent Catalonia
would have a similar ratio, so they would still be able to join
2. Second, turn it. The Catalan Economic Commission explains that that the lack of
fiscal autonomy to Catalonia from the federal government is the cause of
regional debt. Voting pro solves as the University of Barcelona explains that the
majority of economists believe that Catalonian independence would be the
easiest way to reduce the current debt.
Ferdinando Giugliano. "Catalans Would Pay a High Price for Independence." Bloomberg.com. 6 Oct. 2017. Web. 5
Jan. 2018. <https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-10-06/catalans-would-pay-a-high-price-for-
independence>.
Banco Sabadell, the second largest bank located in Catalonia, has already relocated its headquarters. CaixaBank SA, the biggest bank in the region, is considering doing the same. As it faces a
major financial crisis, Catalonia would need to negotiate a new trade deal with the EU. The EU would likely demand as a precondition that Barcelona takes on a portion of Spain's sovereign
One option would be for Catalonia to accept an amount of debt equal to its share of GDP. That solution would leave Spain's debt-to-GDP
debt.
ratio unchanged at around 100 percent, Catalonia's debt would shoot up from its current level of roughly 35 percent to nearly 100 percent of its own income (far above the EU's
admittedly unenforced 60 percent convergence criteria joining the euro zone). The good news would be that such a split could open the way to a negotiated deal over market access to the EU
and the rest of Spain.
Angel Hermosilla, Association of Catalan Economists and Autonomous University of Barcelona, “Impact
of an Independent Catalonia: The Economists View,” trans. by Monika Ferré, THE ECONOMY OF
CATALONIA: QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS ON THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF INDEPENDENCE,
Comissió d’Economia Catalana, 2014, p. 213-214.
As shown in Figure 12, 56.9% of economists believe that the existence of a Catalan State would enable the
reduction of the current indebtedness/deficit of the Generalitat more rapidly than any other alternative. This
is not supported by 37.4% of the members. 5.7% do not express an opinion. All groups show optimism about the
possible debt/deficit reduction, especially pensioners (63.9%) and those living in Girona (71.1%). However,
business people and/or the self-employed and the unemployed (40.8% and 39.1%, respectively) and those living in
Lleida and Barcelona (39.4% and 39.3% respectively) are more critical.
Oriol Martinez Alòs-Moner, economist and Vincent Pastor, economist “The Position of an Independent
Catalonia in the International Context,” trans. Mike Holt, THE ECONOMY OF CATALONIA:
QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS ON THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF INDEPENDENCE, Comissió
d’Economia Catalana, 2014, p. 14.
Alongside this, the devolution process, involving a considerable transfer of powers from the Spanish central
government to the Government of Catalonia, the Generalitat, in recent decades (basically from a demand point
of view, in the areas of policing, justice, health, education and so on), has not been accompanied by a similar
transfer in fiscal terms to meet the cost of running the functions transferred. This has contributed above all to
the gradual increase in the indebtedness on the Generalitat’s finances. The beginning of the global financial crisis
(2007-2008) and the subsequent fall in public revenue made this deficit in the transfer of resources from the State
to the Generalitat even clearer. All this is illustrated by two figures: the infrastructure deficit of 5.5% over the
period 2007-2012 (taking this as the difference between central government spending on infrastructure in
Catalonia and total spending in Spain given the proportion of Spanish GDP accounted for by Catalan GDP) and the
fiscal deficit, has remained at about 8% over the last fifteen years. To sum up, we therefore consider that, after
repeated failures, the “compensation” mentioned above represents a phase which is now over. For this reason, we
believe it is now particularly pertinent to highlight various features, all of them critical, in which the Catalan
economy clearly shows a markedly European and international positioning. The different economic features
discussed below - industrial fabric, exports, capacity for innovation, tourism and attractiveness to investment - are,
as well as foundations of the Catalan economy, elements with which to leverage higher economic growth in a
hypothetical Catalan State which is fully integrated into the international economy.
A2: Autonomy/Reform>Independence
You can turn their argument for 2 reasons.
1. First, this impact is inherently short term. NBC News explains that historically
Catalonian autonomy has been withdrawn. In 2006 the Spanish national
government to granted greater autonomy to Catalonia. 4 years later in 2010 the
national government retracted key parts of the agreement. After this happened
violence flooded through Catalonia. Voting pro doesn’t allow for this and
breaks the cycle of violence that exists in the con world.
2. My second turn is that autonomy will just mobilize separatists. The Atlantic
explains that in 2010 Catalan citizens realized that autonomy is not good
enough because of the national governments oppressive actions. That’s why
the article explains that Catalans will push even harder for independence
because they fear their limited autonomy will be taken away. This will increase
street violence and the terror we tell you about in our first contention.
Dan Corey 17, 11-3-2017, "Catalonia's bid for independence from Spain: What happened when?," NBC
News, https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/catalonia-s-bid-independence-spain-timeline-
developments-n815091
2006: Spain’s central government and Catalan authorities agree to devolve more powers to the
northeastern region, including finance, health care and education. Catalan lawmakers and
Spain’s national parliament approve the agreement. 2008: Spain enters a five-year financial
crisis that prompts harsh austerity measures and economic recession. Many Catalans begin to
believe their wealthy region would be better off on its own. 2010: The Spanish Constitutional
Court in Madrid strikes down key parts of the 2006 agreement, unintentionally reigniting the
Catalan independence movement. About 1 million Catalans protest the court’s actions in a
march through Barcelona, and pro-independence parties win a regional election.
Nafees Hamid and Clara Pretus 17, 9-21-2017, "How Spain Misunderstood the Catalan Independence
Movement," Atlantic, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/10/catalan-referendum-
spain-independence/541656/
The share of those favoring independence began to rise steeply in 2010, from 25 percent to its
peak of 57 percent in 2012. The first reason for this rise was likely the 2008 economic crisis.
Using government data from 2005 to 2016, we found a very high correlation between support
for independence and unemployment in Catalonia. The second reason for this rise was public
outrage at the 2010 constitutional court’s cutting down of reforms aimed at increasing
sovereignty in Catalonia’s Statute of Autonomy, its equivalent of a constitution. Both events
led many to feel that Catalonia would be better off under self rule. Since then, Madrid has
been adamantly opposed to an independence referendum, arguing that it is illegal according to
the 1978 Spanish constitution (which mentions the “indissoluble unity of the Spanish Nation”).
A2: Russian Expansionism
1. De-link this argument right here. TASS News reports yesterday morning that
Russia has repeatedly refused to enter into any support of independence.
They have said multiple times that the Catalan crisis is “an internal Spanish
affair”
2. This is confirmed by Gardiner of the Heritage Foundation who reports that
Spain and Russia a military alliance. Since Russia relies on Spain for help,
there’s no reason why they would attempt to weaken their country.
3. NU. Omelicheva of the University of Kansas concluded in a study of Russian
behavior that the country’s recent expansionist policies stem from A) feeling
threatened by the US and B) wanting to uphold the traditions of the Russian
Orthodox church, a religion that holds lots of sway in the country. This
means that the Catalan movement is not the unique cause of Russian
expansionism.
“Spanish envoy thanks Russia for its stance on Catalonia situation” MOSCOW, January 18. /TASS/.
http://tass.com/world/985683
Spanish Ambassador to Russia Ignacio Ibanez Rubio has expressed gratitude to the Russian leadership
for its stance on the situation in Catalonia at the end of last year, when the region attempted to gain
independence. "I would like to take advantage of the opportunity to again thank the Russian
government for its support in the time of crisis for us, for respect for our position," the diplomat said in
an interview with TASS. "The Russian government has stressed more than once that this is our country’s
internal affair and that the solution to the crisis should correspond with [Spain’s] Constitution," he
recalled. "At the same time, it was noted on numerous occasions that Moscow wants to develop
relations with a united Spain." He confirmed that the Spanish government is ready to maintain dialogue
with all political forces that are part of Catalonia’s new government. "We will see in the near future how
the situation will evolve. In light of this, I would like to note that we will continue to inform the Russian
government about the situation in our country," the ambassador promised. He added that Madrid
counts on "Moscow’s further support for Spain’s unity and efforts to overcome the crisis".
Gardiner ‘15: Nile Gardiner, Ph.D., 8-28-2015, "U.S. Should Condemn Spain’s Military Support to the
Russian Navy," Heritage Foundation, http://www.heritage.org/defense/report/us-should-condemn-
spains-military-support-the-russian-navy
“As Russia continues its occupation of Crimea and sections of eastern Ukraine, some European countries
continue to provide Russia with military support. Most notable among these is Spain, which allows the
Russian Navy regular use of Spanish ports. In total, at least 20 Russian Navy vessels have visited Spain to
refuel and resupply since Russia invaded and annexed Crimea in March 2014. The most recent visit occurred on
August 28, 2015, when a Russian attack submarine resupplied in Ceuta, Spain. This behavior is unbecoming of 21st-century NATO allies. In the
same way that there was public outcry in 2014 against France for selling two amphibious-class warships to Russia—France subsequently
cancelled the contracts—the U.S. should work with like-minded European partners to apply pressure on Spain to end its military assistance to
Russia.”
“What Is behind Russia's Recent Foreign Policy Decisions? Not Simply Territorial Expansion.” The
University of Kansas, 11 Oct. 2016, news.ku.edu/2016/10/06/what-behind-russias-recent-foreign-policy-
decisions-not-simply-territorial-expansion.
Amid the criticism for Putin's actions, some foreign policy scholars have argued that territorial
expansion or even imperialism is in Russia's DNA, but a University of Kansas researcher who examines
international relations says recent hard and soft power projections in Russia tell a different story. "We
need to dig deeper into Russia's own views of international politics in order to understand its foreign
policy actions and decisions," said Mariya Omelicheva, associate professor of political science. As
author of the recent article published in the Journal of International Politics, Omelicheva illuminated
important differences in the ways Russian leadership views the world, how it defines threats to
national and international security, and its views of international actors and its national identity. "In a
way, Russia feels threatened by the United States, but that's only part of the story," she said. "Another
part is that Russia also feels an obligation or responsibility to act as a great power and the last final
guardian of traditional values believed to be forsaken by the West." Key points to consider are that
Russia's foreign policy decisions that seem completely irrational to an outsider are perfectly rational
from the Kremlin's point of view. Russia's rationality, however, has its own internal logic, she said.
"Russia scrapping its plutonium agreement with the United States is a case in point. It makes little sense
given the wittingly unacceptable conditions that Moscow set for renewing the nuclear deal, including
the reduction of the American forces in NATO countries near Russia's border, abrogating all sanctions
against Russia and even compensating Moscow for losses resulting from those sanctions," Omelicheva
said. "The gesture is largely symbolic and was designed to bring Russia in the limelight of world attention
as a nuclear great power capable of influencing developments in the international state." Another is the
influence of the Russian Orthodox Church and its commitment to traditional values — as well as a
supporter of Russian civilization, a largely constructed entity extending beyond Russia to include all
peoples identifying with Russia through language, history, religion or values. "In a way it's a symbiotic
relationship," Omelicheva said. "The Russian state both empowers the church, but it also uses the
church to promote its interests domestically and abroad." To protect these geopolitical views, Putin
primarily has exerted used hard power — military involvement in Ukraine or restricting in Russia how
Western organizations can operate — and soft power — relying on the symbolism of its political
actions, like abrogation of the nuclear deal and seeing the Russian Orthodox Church expand into
Europe, among others.
Impact: Expansion Bad
1. Turn their impact. The Army Press argues that due to the ever-present threat of
militant Islam and the growing military power of China, a strong Russia is
essential to the long-term security of the West.
Michael, George, Ph.D. “Is a Greater Russia Really So Bad?” armyupress.com, Military Review, Jan-Feb
2015, p. 112, http://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/military-
review/Archives/English/MilitaryReview_20150228_art018.pdf
As a matter of realpolitik, the current anti-Russian orientation of the U.S. government is shortsighted. In
fact, greater collaboration between the two countries could go a long way in solving some of the most
critical security challenges the United States will face this century. With the persistent threat of militant
Islam and the growing economic and military power of China, a strong Russia is essential to the long-
term national security of the United States and the West.
A2 Link: Russian Interference in Catalan Elections
1. Voices of America reports this morning that the fake news and hacking has
been facilitated by Russian hackers, but they are not tied to the Russian
government. Putin and Moscow are not involved in Catalonia, which totally
delinks their contention.
2. Turn. The ENCA reports yesterday that NATO has pledged to increase their
military presence both online an on the ground in response to this election
interference. That’s why they conclude that Europe is much more likely to be
stable after these events with a strong NATO force protecting them.
A2: Basque Secession (Spillover)
Delink them for THREE reasons.
1. Reuters reports in 2017 that the Basque separatist movement is dead. Aitor
Estaban, the organizer of the Basque National Party, confirms this as well.
2. Bloomberg News writes in 2017 that the Basque leaders are facilitating
discussions between and Spain and Catalonia to ease tensions. If the Basque
separatist movement were alive they wouldn’t be so interested in keeping the
peace in Spain.
3. The New York Times writes in 2017 that only 23% of Basque citizens want
independence. They don’t even have a strong link for this argument.
Reuters Staff. "The Basque Country: Spain's effective but expensive antidote to secession." Reuters.
10/9/17. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-spain-politics-catalonia-basques-anal/the-basque-
country-spains-effective-but-expensive-antidote-to-secession-idUSKBN1CE2G6
Along the verdant mountains of Basque Country, which borders France, a once-violent campaign for
independence has petered out, with generous fiscal autonomy from Madrid helping to keep popular
agitation for independence in check. “We don’t have that economic resentment,” Aitor Esteban,
organizer for the Basque National Party in Spain’s parliament, told Reuters in an interview at party
headquarters in Bilbao.” “People don’t feel that need to act upon a grievance about money; that makes
a big difference.” The Catalan government is not calling for a Basque-style deal, insisting instead on
independence after declaring overwhelming support for secession in an Oct. 1 referendum banned by
Madrid.
Duarte, Esteban. "Basques are working back channels between Catalans and Spain." Bloomberg News.
10/11/17. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-11/basques-are-said-to-work-back-
channel-between-catalans-and-spain
The Basque Country’s ruling party is acting as an interlocutor between Spain’s central government and
the Catalan regional executive in a bid to reduce tension and find a compromise, according to three
people familiar with the matter. Senior officials from the Basque Nationalist Party, known as the PNV,
have been trying to find common ground between Madrid and Barcelona to limit the fallout from the
biggest institutional clash of Spain’s democratic era, said the people, who asked not to be named
because the matter is confidential.
Kingsley ‘17: Patrick Kingsley, 10-28-2017, "As Catalonia Crisis Deepens, Many Basques Wary of New Independence Bid," New York
Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/28/world/europe/spain-catalonia-basque-independence.html
“Many here sympathize with Catalan nationalists. But after a controversial Catalan independence referendum in early October, an opinion poll
found that nearly 63
percent of Basques did not want to copy the Catalan approach to achieving
independence, while only 22 percent were in favor. And while 44 percent hope for greater autonomy from Madrid, just
23 percent want their own independent country.”
A2: ETA Violence IMPX
1. Mitigate their impact. The Guardian writes in 2017 that all ETA members have
surrendered their weapons. As part of peace negotiations, France has collected
all ETA weapons, greatly diminishing their ability to create chaos.
"'It has been done.' Eta hands over weapons in France.' The Guardian. 4/7/17.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/08/it-has-been-done-eta-hands-over-weapons-in-
france
The Basque separatist group Eta, which has promised to give up all its remaining arms by Saturday, has
handed over the weapons to members of “civil society” in France, one member of the group has said.
“We have the political and technical responsibility for Eta’s disarmament, and it has been done,” Txetx
Etcheverry, a Basque environmentalist, said on Friday. “Eta has handed over its weapons to civil
society. They are on French soil,” he said. Etcheverry gave no other details about the purported arms
transfer or the contents of the arsenal itself, saying they were “confidential”. But on Saturday morning
sources told AFP that Eta had given the French police a list of 12 arms caches in southwestern France.
The caches were located in the departments, or counties, of the Gers, Pyrenees-Atlantiques and
Hautes-Pyrenees, they said.
Science/Research Backlines
“Can Spain's economy survive a Catalan secession?” 30 Sept 2017
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/09/spain-economy-survive-catalan-secession-
170930163702214.html
Since the 1990s, Catalonia has invested in research, particularly in bioscience - genetics, neuroscience,
cell biology - and the sector now represents seven percent of its GDP. With many cutting-edge hospitals
and research centres, including in the nuclear sector with a particle accelerator, the region says it is
number one in Europe for pharmaceutical companies per capita. New technology is also very present in
Barcelona, which every year hosts the Mobile World Congress. Catalan universities are among the best
in the country: of the top five Spanish universities in the widely watched annual ranking compiled by the
independent Shanghai Ranking Consultancy, three are Catalan. These are Pompeu Fabra, the University
of Barcelona and the Autonomous University of Barcelona. Its business schools - Esade and IESE - are
well known and Barcelona also has big publishing houses.
2014-http://www.theaustralian.com.au/higher-education/spanish-students-march-against-higher-fees-
funding-cuts/news-story/e1ff11d8d1705eb2ff408e27570bd839
The national Students’ Union which organised the protests and strike says tuition fees have jumped by
50 per cent since the conservative Popular Party (PP) came to power in December 2011, leaving
universities with 45,000 fewer students because they cannot afford to study. The union also says the
government has cut spending on public education by around $9 billion since it came to power and fired
around 32,000 teachers. Students’ Union secretary-general Ana Garcia said Education Minister Jose
Ignacio Wert was “a nightmare” and called on him to resign. Students are also angry at government
reforms which tighten academic requirements to access university study grants and require university
students to take tests at the end of every academic year to earn re-entry. The reforms also give a
greater weighing to Spanish language teaching, a measure which has especially angered students in
regions such as Catalonia in the northeast or the Basque Country in the north where other languages are
spoken.
Bothwell 16- https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/what-impact-would-catalan-independence-
have-universities
Professor Cabrales [professor of economics at Carlos III University of Madrid] added that research
citations per capita in Catalonia have outperformed Madrid in the past 20 years. “This means if they
were independent they could do even better things – they’d have more money and more independence
to design their own system,” he said. “I think that’s part of the reason why many people in the Catalan
universities feel like they would be better off outside Spain.” He attributed Andreu Mas-Colell, former
minister of economy and knowledge in Catalonia (until January 2016), as the reason for universities’
improvement in the region. Professor Mas-Colell, founder of the Barcelona Graduate School of
Economics and economics professor at the city’s Pompeu Fabra University, is an outspoken advocate for
independence. He said that Catalonia has managed to “rise above” some of the bureaucratic challenges
that have plagued Spain’s universities but that institutions in the region are still “choking under the
straitjacket of organisational laws”. In particular, he cited the requirement for all professors in Spain to
be civil servants, although others have also complained of poor professorial salaries and red tape
preventing the hiring of international staff as further restrictions. “We did very well in ERC grants in
2015,” he said, pointing to figures for ERC Proof of Concept grants, which show that researchers in
Catalonia got 17.5 per cent of the awards last year. He added that after independence “the impact on
research funding can only be positive" given the amount that the region currently contributes in taxes.
He also cited the 2014 Scottish referendum as the “closest example” of what Catalonia could achieve,
but admitted that reaching this point would be a challenge. “As you know well from Britain, you can live
a very long time agreeing to disagree,” he said. “While research and universities [in Catalonia] are
improving, if we could break free from the straitjacket of the university law, we’ll run even faster.
Indicts
Barry; New York Times
Barry actually concludes that an independent Catalonia would be economically viable.
Barry, Ellen. “Catalans Who Did Not Vote (More Than Half) Ask: What Now?” The New York Times, The
New York Times, 3 Oct. 2017, www.nytimes.com/2017/10/03/world/europe/catalonia-independence-
referendum.html.
Economists generally agree that Catalonia would be economically viable as an independent country,
but they differ on the impact on jobs, barriers to trade and the spending needs of the new state.
I2 (Siroky) Duke (Secession means Violence)
1. The Siroky evidence they use, talking about civil war, provides an exception. He states that
“In wealthier states without third party involvement, the probability of recursive
secessionist conflict is approximately zero.” Spain is one of the richest countries in the world
and Catalonia is one of the richest regions in Spain, meaning that they fulfil the first
requirement. Since the resolution implies that Spain is granting independence instantly in
the AFF world, there would be no third-party involvement, meaning that there is no
conflict, since Spain and Catalonia are an exception from the general rule he presented.
Siroky, David S. “Secession and Survival: Nations, States and Violent Conflict.”
pdfs.semanticscholar.org, Duke University, 2009,
The available data are consistent with this story: the predicted probability of conflict in poorer
states without third party involvement is comparable to the probability of states with third party
involvement but without high levels of heterogeneity. In this sense, a poor state serves as a
functional equivalent for heterogeneity and third party involvement combined, even though the
mechanisms are distinct. In wealthier states without third party involvement, the probability
of recursive secessionist conflict is approximately zero. That said, we should not fail to
consider the possibility that third parties may be less likely to become involved as nosy
neighbors or irredentist actors in wealthy states in the first place, since better endowed states can
more easily secure their borders and peripheral populations. The data do not provide evidence for
this conjecture, however. In fact, among states with wealth levels beneath the mean, third party
party involvement was slightly less likely than it was in states above the mean wealth level in the
data set. Moreover, if we look only at cases that experienced recursive secessionist conflicts in
the first five years, then we see that third parties were actually considerably more likely to
interfere in wealthy states than in poor states.
I2 Unemployment Doubles GDP loses by 25%
The author is unreliable. Every article that cites the doubling in unemployment or 25% decrease in
Catalan GDP comes from Spanish Economy Minister Luis de Guindos’ personal estimations, not
based on any study. De Guindos has an interest in deterring Catalonia from seceding because he
works for the Spanish government which is adamantly opposed to independence.
Sofia Bosch. "Here’s how bad economically a Spain-Catalonia split could really be." CNBC. 21
Sept. 2017. Web. 23 Dec. 2017. <
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/21/heres-how-bad-economically-a-spain-catalonia-split-could-
really-be.html>
At the same time, Catalonia could take a potential hit, as 35.5 percent of Catalan exports are to
the Spanish market. Catalonia would also have pay to create new state structures (embassies,
central banks, etc.) which carry a large price tag. Earlier this month, Spanish Economy
Minister Luis de Guindos claimed that Catalonia could see its economy shrink by 25 to 30
percent and its unemployment double if it splits to form a separate state. Regardless, the fate
of both nations would ultimately come down to the decisions made in post-separation
negotiations on debt and the European Union.
2. Luis de Guindos has a history of lying, as in a testimony to the European Parliament he

admitted that he lied in his campaign saying he would lower taxes when he knew that it wasn’t
feasible.
European Parliament. "Exchange of views with Luis de GUINDOS, Spanish Minister of
Economy and Competitiveness and Mário CENTENO, Portuguese." Audiovisual.eu. n.d. Web.
23 Dec. 2017. <http://audiovisual.europarl.europa.eu/Assetdetail.aspx?id=3a093dc1-7355-4377-
a766-a6b80142c658>
SOUNDBITE (Spanish), Luis DE GUINDOS JURADO, Spanish Minister for Economy and
Competition, We will have to look for those measures that allow us to provide the structural
effort of 0.5% of GDP, which is about 5,000 million euros. In this, the new government is going
to contact the main parties of the parliamentary arch in Spain and, logically, we will look for a
set of measures that is appropriate both from the point of life of economic incentives and from
the angle of equity. SOUNDBITE (Spanish), Ernest URTASUN (Greens/ALE, ES), Minister, I
have two questions. First, are you going to repeal the tax reform you did? Yes or no?
Second, do you regret having lied in the campaign saying that you would lower taxes when
you already had these data and knew it was impossible? Thank you very much
F2: Only 42% Voted
1. This is a really weak indict. 42% is almost equal to the US turnout in the 2016
election (55%)! 42% is a substantial number and is representative of the
population.
Wallace, Gregory. “Voter Turnout at 20-Year Low in 2016.” CNN, Cable News Network, 30 Nov. 2016,
www.cnn.com/2016/11/11/politics/popular-vote-turnout-2016/index.html.
Voter turnout this year dipped to nearly its lowest point in two decades. While election officials are still
tabulating ballots, the 126 million votes already counted means about 55% of voting age citizens cast
ballots this year. That measure of turnout is the lowest in a presidential election since 1996, when
53.5% of voting-age citizens turned out
F2: Negating = No Nationalism
1. Turn this on them. Catalonian organizations reject white supremacist
movements. Catalonia internet foundations reject white supremacist sites that
try to align with the independence movement. The white supremacist site The
Daily Stormer registered into the .cat domain, but was quickly taken offline by
Catalan internet organizations.
1. This doesn’t make sense. If we don’t grant independence, it will just fuel a
bigger push. The best way to quell the movement is by granting independence
because if the movement is only for independence, granting means the
movement ends. The Atlantic confirms this in their analysis finding that if you
vote con, independence will jut be forced upon Spain.
2. This is confirmed by Sorens of Dartmouth College who reports that repression
of nationalism just increases latent support among the population. They’re
making the problem worse.
171219075614245.html
How should central governments treat independence movements? My own research shows that central
governments can limit the uncertainty and violence over secession campaigns when they provide a legal
path to independence. The most recent scenes in Catalonia and Iraqi Kurdistan only serve to further
confirm this finding. When central governments crack down on independence movements, political and
economic instability and even violence are the usual outcomes.
There are two major reasons why suppressing secession attempts by force is no solution to the issue.
First, it is impossible to efface the dream of independence from people's minds. Repression raises latent
support for independence, even if it removes all public expression of that support. If the state eventually
faces a moment of weakness or crisis, that latent support could quickly break out into a mass
movement, as happened in various parts of Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union in the 1990s.
Second, when governments try to eliminate the possibility of independence, they give themselves a
freer hand to mistreat their ethnic minorities. My research shows that democracies that define
themselves as "indivisible" in their constitutions are less likely to decentralise power to their regions and
give more rights to local communities to govern themselves.
Jeffries, Adrianne. “The Daily Stormer Just Lost Its New .Cat Domain.” The Outline, The Outline, 6 Oct.
2017, theoutline.com/post/2376/the-daily-stormer-just-lost-its-new-cat-domain.
On September 20, the offices of puntCAT, the foundation that oversees the .cat domain dedicated to
Catalan heritage, were raided by Spanish police looking to squash the region’s upcoming independence
referendum. On September 21, white supremacist site The Daily Stormer, domainless after multiple
providers dropped it over its coverage of the violent rally in Charlottesville, registered dailystormer.cat [,
using the .cat domain that is dedicated to Catalan heritage]. Since then, a reported majority of
Catalonians voted for secession in a referendum on October 1, triggering a violent backlash by the
Spanish government and an ongoing political conflict that Reuters labeled the “Catalonia independence
crisis.” The Daily Stormer site continued to be served from its new .cat domain and adopted a cat logo at
the top of the site. Websites on the .cat domain are required to have content in the Catalan language.
The domain’s gatekeepers generally resist attempts to take advantage of the arrangement. However,
the chaos around the independence referendum and the Spanish response may have allowed the Daily
Stormer to slip through. When a user asked puntCAT [the foundation that oversees the .cat domain]
about the website on September 30, a representative for the foundation said “our team is already doing
procedure for the immediate suspension of the domain for lack of contents, to put in danger the integrity
and the good name of the register .cat, the language and the Catalan culture,” according to an email
shared with The Outline. This morning, dailystormer.cat [is now] went offline. That is a double blow for
the site’s founder, white supremacist Andrew Anglin, because the .cat domain had the extra benefit of
being attached to an independence referendum that the alt-right and white supremacist movements
have rallied behind. “I wasn’t into it before — because it’s basically just about these people wanting to
pay lower taxes — but I’ve since decided that any form of nationalism is good. It doesn’t matter the
motivations,” Anglin wrote in a blog post on Daily Stormer.
F2: Econ O/W
1. Their arguments are totally nonunique. The Atlantic explains that Catalans will
force independence upon Spain if they don’t grant it now.
2. Bosch of CNBC explains that even if economic harms exist, the Catalan
independence movement will not die. This because the issue is over a matter of
identity
Bosch, Sofia. [Correspondent for CNBC]. “Here’s how bad economically a Spain- Catalonia split could
really be,” CNBC. 2 October 2017.
Catalonia could also face economic turmoil due to its separation for the European single currency,
and increased tariffs on their goods and services. Ultimately though, Catalan nationalists will pay
any price for independence, regardless of the economic losses. “The economic arguments will not
be the prevailing ones in the debate over Catalonia’s independence,” Cuenca said. “The arguments
used by both sides appeal to identity.”
F2: Leaders are Imprisoned so Movement
Demobilized
1. Gonzalez of Foreign Policy Magazine explains that most Catalans see the
imprisonment of the independence leaders as illegal because they never used
violence or illegal means to reach their goals. That’s why he concludes that this
has actually increased anti-national sentiment in Catalonia, increasing the
movement’s mobilization.
Ricard Gonzalez, 12-27, 17, Gonzalez is a journalist and analyst specializing in the Arab World and
Catalan politics. He is the author of the book Ascenso y caida de los Hermanos Musulmanes, The
Nation Catalonia’s crisis is just getting started, http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/12/27/catalonias-crisis-is-
just-getting-started/
Once it became evident that the pro-independence movement would not just go away, Rajoy chose to
ignore its leaders and let the judicial system deal with any challenge to the authority of the Spanish
state. As a result of this policy, the exiled Catalan president, Carles Puigdemont, is now in Brussels, and
his vice president, Oriol Junqueras, is in prison. They face possible 30-year prison sentences, despite
having never used violence. More than 100 highly regarded Spanish lawyers have stated that the
“sedition” and “rebellion” charges against them are baseless, and many Catalans consider them
political prisoners. Yet instead of seeking a political solution for what is a political problem, Rajoy has
let the conflict fester and treated it as a “law and order” problem. And by outsourcing resolution of
the Catalan conflict to the judiciary, he now risks losing control of events.
F2: Euro w/o EU= Instability
1. Recognize that the resolution says that Spain will grant Catalonia Independence
meaning that Catalonia can get into the EU in the pro world.
2. Even if you don’t buy that, Hamidi of Balkan Insight explains the countries that
have unilaterally adopted the euro have much more stable economies. That’s
because economic uncertainty and market depreciation affect these countries
much less since they are in the Eurozone.
Lavdim Hamidi. Balkan Insight. February 26, 2010. “Euro: A Force for Stability in Kosovo”
http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/euro-a-force-for-stability-in-kosovo
Experts, however, believe Kosovo, which unilaterally adopted the Euro and is not part of the
Eurozone, will not be impacted by the crisis. A weaker Euro could even play to Kosovo’s
advantage, by making its products more competitive outside of the Eurozone, although this
would only happen if other currencies did not take a tumble. Research by Kosovo’s central bank
in 2006 however suggested that the country’s export market was too small to benefit
substantially from a weaker currency. The unilateral adoption of the European Union currency
in Kosovo has brought financial and economic stability, economic experts told Prishtina Insight.
"For a small, open economy, the adoption of the euro is considered a very important step," said
Gani Gerguri, Vice Governor of Kosovo’s Central Bank. The problem of ensuring monetary
stability is a serious one that has challenged and continues to challenge many countries in the
region and beyond, and Kosovo, he says, has minimised this issue by bringing in such a strong
currency. "Having the Euro contributes to monetary stability and overall macroeconomic
stability," said Gerguri. Before the Euro, Kosovo’s official currency between 1999 and 2002 was
German Marks (DM). Banking expert Flamur Keqa agrees that the Euro has brought financial
and economic stability to Kosovo.
F2: Movement is Dying Right Now/No Support
1. CNN reports last month that millennials are the most ardent supporters of
independence. That’s why they conclude as time goes on support for
independence will continue to grow.
2. BBC News reports yesterday that the first act of the new parliament was to
appoint a pro-independence member as the parliamentary speaker. This
actions are clear that support for independence even in the government is still
alive and growing.
3. Express Magazine writes that approval rates for the Spanish prime minister
Rajoy are at historical lows. They warrant that people all across Spain see the
Spanish government’s actions as eroding their country’s democracy. Support is
high.
Angela Dewan [contributor, CNN], "The millennials voting for Catalan independence," CNN,
December 19 2017. Available at: http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/19/europe/catalonia-youth-
election-spain-intl/index.html
When Catalonia in northeastern Spain held an independence referendum on October

1, Alexandra Galceran Latorre, 29, went to her local polling station at dawn "to
protect the ballot boxes," she said with pride. Madrid had sent in thousands of police to
shut the referendum down. They were later filmed pulling elderly voters from polling booths,
and firing rubber bullets and tear gas at people in the streets -- scenes that prompted global
outrage. Millennials like Galceran are among Catalonia's most passionate advocates
for independence, even though they were born well after Gen. Francisco Franco's
decades of dictatorship, a brutal chapter in Spain's history that helps give the
secessionist movement its thrust. An opinion poll by the Center for Opinion Studies in
Catalonia found that more than half of Catalans between the ages of 18 and 34 would
vote to break away from Spain given a simple choice of yes or no. Pro-independence
parties vying for power in Thursday's regional election are hoping that support will translate
into votes. "We are still seeing Franco in our political parties. They are fascists, and
they are strangling us slowly, step by step," Galceran told CNN in Barcelona. She
plans to vote for Together for Catalonia, headed by deposed Catalan president Carles
Puigdemont. "We are fighting to defend our language, our traditions and our culture.
This is what our ancestors fought for."
BBC News 18, 1-17-2018, "Catalan MPs elect separatist speaker," http://www.bbc.com/news/world-
europe-42718192
Catalan MPs in Barcelona have elected a pro-independence speaker at their first meeting since
Madrid dissolved the region's parliament. The choice of Roger Torrent is the first step to reinstating
local government. Separatist parties, who remain dominant after December's election, want Carles
Puigdemont to be president again. But the ex-leader risks arrest if he returns from self-imposed exile in
Belgium. He is wanted by Spain on charges of rebellion and sedition over last year's independence drive.
[Express Magazine Rajoy Popularity]

Con
OVs and OBs
Spanish Interests Obs
We would like to provide a way to frame the round. The resolution asks us how SPAIN
should respond to Catalonia, so this round should be judged based on Spain’s best
interest.
Nationalism OV
As an overview, realize that recognizing Catalan independence is against Spain’s
interest because it destabilizes Europe as a whole. The Telegraph reports in October
that a successful Catalan secession would lead to a domino effect for other
secessionist movements across Europe. Not only would this weaken the power and
legitimacy of the EU, but it would also empower violent nationalistic radicals. This is
uniquely bad, as Bingham of King’s College finds that there is a direct causal
relationship between radical nationalism and violent conflict.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/13/juncker-says-catalonian-independence-could-cause-domino-effect/ 10/13/17
A breakaway Catalonia would cause a domino effect that could splinter the EU, Jean-Claude Juncker warned
yesterday, as the Catalan president faced a threat to his pro-secession alliance yesterday from independence hardliners. The crucial far-Left
partner in Carles Puigdemont's government wrote an open letter demanding he affirm that he has declared independence from Spain. The
Spanish government has given Carles Puigdemont a deadline of 10am on Monday to clarify whether he has formally declared an independent
Catalan Republic, after he announced on Tuesday that Catalonia would secede but suspended any immediate practical moves to allow for
negotiation. The
announcement dismayed independence hardliners, who are now clamouring for the
unequivocal declaration that carries with it the threat of the suspension of Catalonia’s autonomy . The
far Left CUP, whose ten parliamentary seats are indispensable to the government’s majority, will meet tomorrow to decide whether to
withdraw its support until Mr Puigdemont pushes ahead with the declaration - a move which would leave the opposition in control of the
parliament.
Bingham 12 (Grad Student at King’s College in London) http://www.e-ir.info/2012/06/19/how-

significant-is-nationalism-as-a-cause-of-war/, 6/19/2012
Direct causality can be drawn between nationalism and war. The greater the number of stateless
individuals who hold nationalistic sentiments, the greater the likelihood of war. This is dependent on whether
they contain the strength to challenge the existing state. The highest likelihood of war is when the central state will
challenge the plausible attempt by such nationalist groups to reach statehood, (such as seen during the 1991-2
Serbo-Croatian conflict). If the central state has no will to resist then a nationalist group may gain independence without the use of violence
(such as Sub-Saharan African states gaining independence from colonial powers during the 1960s). The creation of new separatist states
requires a change to the political system, hence peace is more likely when the ‘supply/demand’ is in equilibrium; when, in a given region, the
separatist nationalist groups have obtained independent statehood, war is less likely to break out over nationalist causes. Nationalist
groups within a state who desire their own independent state, (one organised to include their ethnic
or cultural identity, for example), may conduct regular or irregular warfare in order to forcibly
persuade a state to grant them independence. Separatist insurgencies are an example of this – the Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka,
fighting for an independent Tamil state, are an example of a nationalist group using irregular warfare in pursuit of their aims.
Poverty/Income Inequality OV
Voting pro increases poverty and income inequality in both Catalan and Spanish society. Politico explains
in 2017 that Catalan taxes to the national government is used to support social welfare in poorer regions
of Spain, which is why Catalonia doesn’t get a 100% return. JP Morgan quantifies that Catalonia would
need $42 billion to administer its own s Marinzel of John Carroll UnFortune Magazine explains
A2: December Elections mean Support
1. Saying the parliamentary election represents Catalonia’s need to secede is a
farce. While it’s true that pro-secessionist parties have negotiated to form a
majority, this is not representative of the people. The New York Times actually
reports that their majority is “growing increasingly fragile” with the coalition
threatening to break apart. On top of that, Pro-Independence parties actually
only garnered about 47% of the vote, while Pro-Union parties gained about 51%
of the vote. Following the will of the people actually shows that Catalans prefer
compromise rather than all out secession.
A2: EU Can Force Spain
1. They literally cannot. According to Article 4.2 of the 2009 Lisbon Treaty, the EU
is constitutionally forbidden from interfering in member states’ disputes
related to “territorial integrity”
“Why the European Union’s hands are tied over Catalonia” October 18, 2017 7.38pm EDT
https://theconversation.com/why-the-european-unions-hands-are-tied-over-catalonia-85661
A member state club Second, the EU is not equipped, for legal and political reasons, to tackle separatist
disputes like the one in Catalonia. As journalist Natalie Nougayrède points out, the EU cannot dictate
how member states organize themselves or interact with their regions. Article 4.2 of the 2009 Lisbon
Treaty, which revised the key constitutional treaties of the EU, states that the EU will not interfere
with key state functions such as “territorial integrity” or “maintaining law and order.” This means
member states still largely dictate the policies of the EU and the member states have shown no
willingness to back the Catalan separatists. This stems, in part, from a feeling of solidarity with the state
of Spain. Some of the major powers in Europe are also distracted by major domestic challenges, be it
Brexit for the United Kingdom, reforming the labor market in France or negotiating a new coalition
government in Germany. But ultimately, member states are worried about creating a precedent.
Providing support for the independence movement in Catalonia, which is in open conflict with the
Spanish government, could embolden other separatist forces across the continent, such as the Flemish
in Belgium, the Corsicans in France or the Lombards in Italy. In that sense, Kosovo provides a telling
reminder of the general reticence toward secession movements among EU member states. Although it
unilaterally declared independence nine years ago, five members of the EU – Spain, Slovakia, Greece,
Romania and Cyprus – still refuse to this day to formally recognize the sovereignty of the Balkan country.
A2: Russia
1. You can turn this on them. Gregory of Forbes Magazine reports in October that
allowing Catalans independence would give him precedent on the international
stage to show why Crimea belongs to be part of Russia. This is incredibly bad, as
any extension of the Russian sphere of influence in Europe directly threatens
the sovereignty of the EU
Gregory, Paul Roderick. “How Russia Is Playing Catalonia To Get A Reprieve On Crimea.” Forbes,
Forbes Magazine, 16 Oct. 2017, www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2017/10/16/how-
russia-is-playingcatalonia- to-get-a-reprieve-on-crimea/#3357e5a2603c.
Among Russia’s biggest headaches is the widespread condemnation of its annexation of Crimea
in March of 2014. Vladimir Putin still smarts from the November 2016 International Criminal
Court (ICC) finding that “there exists a sensible or reasonable justification for a belief that a
crime [my italics] falling within the jurisdiction of the Court ‘has been or is being committed’”
within the Crimean and Donbas territories of Ukraine. Upon issuance of this finding, an irate
Russia withdrew from the ICC. Sanctions continue to threaten persons and companies
associated with the Crimean takeover. United Nations investigators have documented evidence
of arbitrary detentions, torture, abductions, and political murder in occupied Crimea. Putin sees
in the Catalonian referendum an opportunity to convince the European Union, NATO, and the
UN that it is time to recognize that Crimea belongs to Russia and to let bygones be bygones.
After all, business and political interests in Europe are getting restive. They contend that,
after almost four years, it is time to return to “business as usual” with Russia.
EU Fracturing
Tehran Times, November 29, 2017, The crisis continues in Catalonia,
http://www.tehrantimes.com/news/418878/The-crisis-continues-in-Catalonia
The fact is that the President of the United States welcomes any incident and behavior that is taking
place in the direction of the weakening and division of the European Union. This rule also applies to the
independence of Catalonia and its separation from Spain.This issue will, of course, stimulate other
independent groups in Europe, and this is exactly what Donald Trump and his entourage are looking for.
Bilateral contacts between Trump and extremist groups indicate that the U.S. president is still
demanding the destruction of the European Union. During the U.S. presidential campaigns in 2016, we
witnessed the full support of the nationalist and radical European parties of Donald Trump. After Trump
won the presidential election last year, taking a clear standpoint, he declared his support from "Brexit"
and the withdrawal of Britain from the European Union. Even the President of the United States
indirectly called on other European countries to follow Brexit as a model.
Sarah Williams, October 2, 2017, Why part of Spain is trying to secede -- and why the Spanish
government is cracking down on it, https://www.vox.com/world/2017/10/2/16393956/catalonia-
catalan-independence-crackdown-vote-referendum
In a country that has only been a democracy for four decades, the scenes of police violence — which left
some 800 people injured — looked like images from Spain’s bygone era of fascist leadership. The
Catalans called upon the European Union to intervene on their behalf. The EU officially refused. “This is
an internal matter for Spain that has to be dealt with in line with the constitutional order of Spain,” a
spokesperson for the EU said on Monday morning. The spokesperson then went further and warned the
Catalans that their independence drive risked leaving them even more isolated internationally. “Beyond
the purely legal aspects of this matter, the Commission believes that these are times for unity and
stability, not divisiveness and fragmentation,” the statement read. That kind of language is meant to put
down any notion that an independent Catalonia would be a formal member of the EU — and to stop
other secession movements from getting similar ideas. If the Catalans won independence, theoretically
there would be little to stop the Flemish from breaking away from Belgium, or the Corsicans from
peeling off from France. In other words, creating the theoretical nation of Catalonia wouldn’t simply be
a blow to Spain; it would also be a potentially large blow to the territorial integrity of an array of other
EU nations.
Alfonso Valero, principal lecturer for the College of Business Law & Social Sciences in Nottingham Law
School at Nottingham Trent University, US News & World Report, October 4, 2017, Why the EU should
back Spain against Catalonia, https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2017-10-04/why-
the-eu-should-back-spain-against-catalonia-independence
The position of the EU and the European leaders on Catalonian independence has been one of self-
preservation. Separatism exists in France, Italy, Germany, Belgium and the U.K. – none of which want to
encourage divisions at home by supporting the Catalonian separatist cause. According to this
hypothesis, if the EU encouraged Catalonia to separate from Spain, whether because it was
guaranteed EU membership or because the EU leaders intervened in favor of the separatist goals,
Spain could reciprocate if separatism flared up elsewhere in the EU.
Catalonia blocked from EU
1. Reuters reports in September that Spain could block Catalonia’s entry into the
EU singlehandedly at any point. However, even if that doesn’t happen, Reuters
reports that entry into the EU is long, drawn out process. Politco explains that
because the EU is currently preoccupied with Brexit, it will not be able to
consider new countries for membership until 2027. Our impacts will have
materiazlized by hen, meaning we’re winning on timeframe.
2. The Associated Press corroborates this, reporting that Catalonia would be
expelled from the EU Trade Bloc and they would lose use of the Euro
“Independent Catalonia would need to apply to join EU: Juncker” SEPTEMBER 14, 2017
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-spain-politics-eu/independent-catalonia-would-need-to-apply-to-
join-eu-juncker-idUSKCN1BP210
Catalonia’s parliament has laid the ground for a referendum on independence from Madrid on Oct. 1,
although Spain’s Constitutional Court has suspended the vote. Judges are now considering whether the
legislation contravenes Spain’s constitution. “If there were to be a ‘yes’ vote in favor of Catalan
independence, then we will respect that opinion. But Catalonia will not be able to be an EU member
state on the day after such a vote,” Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker said on YouTube and
broadcast by Euronews. Echoing a stance made by his predecessor, Jose Manuel Barroso, Juncker said
any newly independent state must follow the same EU membership procedures as all aspirants, citing
Scotland and, in jest, his home country, Luxembourg. “If northern Luxembourg were to cede from the
south, the same rules would apply,” Juncker said. The EU’s accession negotiations are an arduous
process that involve complying with all EU standards and rules and winning the consent of all EU
governments. This means that Spain would be able to block Catalonia’s EU accession if it wished. Croatia
was the last country to join the EU, in 2013 after first applying for membership in 2003.
Heath, Ryan. “The race for EU membership.” politico.eu, Politico, 12/15/16,

https://www.politico.eu/article/the-race-for-eu-membership-neighborhood-turkey-uk-european-
commission/
Don’t expect the European Commission to give firm indications about any of this in 2017: The EU
promises a policy update only in spring 2018. Several EU officials POLITICO spoke to suggested that
with Brexit and a new budget to negotiate and implement from 2020-2026, the EU simply doesn’t
have room on its plate until 2027 to consider new members. Goran Svilanović, a former Serbian foreign
minister, and now head of the Regional Cooperation Council, said he is “very frustrated” by this
approach and says that it would be better to “start negotiating. Keep us busy. Help us be successful.”
The Associated Press “A look at what might happen if Catalonia declares secession” October 10, 2017
11:43 am https://wtop.com/europe/2017/10/a-look-at-what-might-happen-if-catalonia-declares-
secession/slide/1/
THE ECONOMIC FALLOUT The European Union has already said Catalonia would be expelled from the
bloc and its shared currency, the euro, if it declared independence and would have to reapply to
rejoin, a lengthy, uncertain process. The tension has impacted the economy, with dozens of companies
already relocating their corporate address away from the troubled region to remain under Spanish and
European laws if Catalonia manages to secede. The moves of the firms’ bases do not so far affect jobs or
investments — but they don’t send a message of confidence in the Puigdemont government. Catalonia
denies there is any rush among companies to leave and says its economy is fine.
Econ Harms- Tariffs
Marinzel, Anastazia, "Catalonia: The Quest for Independence from Spain" (2014). Senior Honors
Projects. 39. https://collected.jcu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1039&context=honorspapers
In addition to trade falling with Spain, Catalonia should expect a trade decline in its other export
markets as well. A revisit to figure three shows that, besides Spain, Catalonia’s main export markets
include all EU member states. Since Catalonia will lose EU membership with secession, it will face tariffs
in trading with all of its current main trading partners. Trade would automatically become more
expensive for Catalan exporters and it would likely fall.
Econ Harms- Business Pullout
Consequently, disinvestment by businesses headquartered in the region is another concern. Since

Catalonia would automatically lose EU membership, businesses in Catalonia would not be able to
benefit from EU policies. It is advantageous for businesses to headquarter in a member state of the EU
because of the goal of an internal market within the EU. To promote the idea of a unitary marketplace,
the EU has eliminated all import/export duties between member states and features the free movement
of labor, capital, and services. Between member states there are no trade barriers, workers are free to
enter or reside in any member state without restriction, companies can establish themselves for free in
any one of the member states, and capital is free to move amongst the member states (Moussis n.pag).
All companies in Catalonia would automatically lose these advantages with secession and would face
tariffs, so there is a fear many will leave the area and relocate in another member state, namely Spain.
Econ Impact- Unemployment/GDP
If large multinational corporations exit Catalonia, Catalan employment will suffer. In an area already
plagued with extremely high unemployment, the statistics would only get worse if companies chose to
leave and trading levels fell. Due to lower trade levels, added tariffs, withdrawal of multinational
corporations, and unemployment effects in Catalonia, Credit Suisse estimates that Catalan GDP could
fall by one-fifth if independent, consequently lowering per capita income (Alexopoulos et. al 7).
Econ Quantification- Foreign Minister
Catalan Crisis has cost Spain 1.2 billion dollars SO FAR
World Economy Tuesday, January 02, 2018 “Catalonia Crisis Cost Spain $1.2 Billion”
https://financialtribune.com/articles/world-economy/79133/catalonia-crisis-cost-spain-12-billion
Spain’s Economy Minister Luis de Guindos has put the cost of the Catalan independence crisis at around
€1 billion ($1.2 billion). He told Spanish radio that it was due to the slowdown in the Catalan economy
after the unauthorized independence referendum on October 1, BBC reported. Madrid’s warnings about
economic damage were a big part of its campaign against Catalan separatists in last month’s regional
election. But this is the highest estimate yet. De Guindos said growth in Catalonia had slowed from 0.9%
to 0.4% in the fourth quarter. “Catalonia used to have growth above that of Spain, it was one of the
drivers of the Spanish economy,” he told Spanish radio. “However, in the fourth quarter, it’s become a
burden.” Some 3,100 firms have moved their headquarters elsewhere as a result of the uncertainty. Far
from resolving the crisis, December’s election highlighted the even nature of the region’s split into pro-
independence and unionist sides, and set the stage for further confrontation. The separatists are best
placed to form a new administration, with separatist groups winning 70 of 135 seats in parliament.
However, the Ciudadanos (Citizens) party won the popular vote. The region’s former leader Carles
Puigdemont—who is in self-imposed exile in Brussels—leads one of the separatist parties. His erstwhile
deputy Oriol Junqueras—who is in jail in Madrid—heads another. De Guindos urged the separatists to
abandon the “unilateral way” and focus on the “basic necessities” of Catalan society.
A2: Catalonia Pays FAT Taxes
1. They’re vastly over-exaggerating the tax disparity. Maqueda of El Pais News
reports that in recent years, two other regions in Spain have had larger deficits
between what they pay and what they get back than Catalonia, and neither of
these regions is advocating for independence. Just because we tax California
more than Montana doesn’t mean California should secede.
2. First, turn this on them. Marinzel of John Carroll University explains that these
taxes allow the central government to provide services such as administration,
defense, security, and social welfare. In the pro world JP Morgan quantifies that
it would take 42 billion dollars a year for Catalonia to provide these services on
its own. That’s problematic because tax revenues would only save Catalonia
$21 billion, which is only half of the funds needed to provide necessary services
to Catalan citizens.
Maqueda, Antonio, et al. “No, Catalonia Is Not Being Robbed.” EL PAÍS, Síguenos En Síguenos En Twitter
Síguenos En Facebook Síguenos En Twitter Síguenos En Instagram, 26 Sept. 2017,
elpais.com/elpais/2017/09/26/inenglish/1506410252_592782.html.
The issue, then, is not that a gap exists: it is whether this gap is truly excessive. And comparisons
suggest that it is not. The situation in Catalonia is not very different from that of other Spanish or
foreign regions with higher-than-average income levels. In recent years, Madrid and the Balearic Islands
have had even bigger fiscal deficits than Catalonia. “There is an inverse relationship between per capita
GDP and the fiscal balance,” says Ángel de la Fuente, a renowned expert on the matter whose opinions
are valued by the pro-independence movement. “The higher the per capita GDP, the worse the fiscal
balance will be.”The only exceptions to this rule are the Basque Country and Navarre, two wealthy
regions that also enjoy a fiscal surplus. That is because of a special deal – el concierto económico – by
which these regions get to keep most of their tax receipts, rather than turning them over to the state,
and later pay in a certain amount of money for the state’s services. Experts agree that this amount is too
low.
Catalonia claims that it pays more in tax revenues to the central government than it receives back in
social spending or infrastructure, and that its citizens’ money is often sent to the poorer regions of
Spain. Those wanting independence from Spain believe that Catalonia would be better off if it could
keep the money it usually sends off to Madrid in its fiscal transfer. If independent, Catalonia would be
able to keep all of its revenue, but it would have to provide services that are currently supported by
the central government. Such services may include administration, defense, security, etc. (White and
Brun-Aguerre 4). The question remains how much these social services would cost and if they would eat
up all of the savings Catalonia would realize by being in charge of its taxes. A report by JP Morgan gives
such estimates using data from the 2005 budget of the Spanish government. According to the report, “In
2005, the Spanish government spent one hundred and thirty three point two billion euros in public
services for the entire economy. As sixteen percent of the population lived in Catalonia at the time…[we]
could assume that a proportional share of the government spending was allocated to this region, or
twenty one point five billion euros” (White and Brun-Aguerre 4). The report points out that it is unclear
where Catalonia would choose to spend its money and it may not spend a proportional amount on its
population. Based upon a proportional amount of the Spanish budget needed to provide public services
to Catalan citizens, JP Morgan hypothesizes that the necessary amount would equate to five point eight
percent of Catalonia’s GDP. Consequently, Catalonia would only be able to realize close to three percent
of the budget transfers Marinzel 23 they send off to Madrid when we assume an annual regional
transfer of eight percent to the Spanish government. While this number is higher than what Catalans
currently see, it is much less than the eight point seven percent the average Catalan would expect. If the
JP Morgan estimates are accurate for Catalonia, providing necessary services to Catalan citizens would
cancel out more than half of the tax money Catalonia would save.
The article tells us that 3% of Catalonia’s GDP is $21.5 billion. It then tells us 5.8% is needed to provide
these services. This percentage is dollars is:
21.5
= 𝐶𝑎𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑎 𝐺𝐷𝑃 = 715 𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑑𝑜𝑙𝑙𝑎𝑟𝑠
. 03
𝐶𝑎𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑎 𝐺𝐷𝑃 × 5.8% = 715 × .058 = 41.5 𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑑𝑜𝑙𝑙𝑎𝑟𝑠
Catalonia needs 42 billion dollars to provide these services, but they only save $21.5 through tax
revenue streams by declaring independence.
A2: Conflict
1. Their claim is totally overblown. Donadio of the Atlantic reports that most
accounts of the strife in Catalonia have been exaggerated. Instead of hundreds
of people injured, in reality it’s 2.
RACHEL DONADIO [staff writer, Atlantic], "Catalans Can't Agree on What Independence Means," The
Atlantic, December 8 2017. Available
at: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/12/catalonia-independence-spain/547766/
A few days later, in Madrid, I mentioned the size of the demonstration crowd, which the Barcelona
police estimated at 750,000, to Íñigo Méndez de Vigo y Montoyo, the Spanish government spokesman.
“750,000? It’s impossible,” he said. He placed the crowd at around 200,000 people. The disputes over
crowd size—and the media coverage of the crisis—have come to mirror the crisis itself: two parallel
realities with little middle ground. (Outside watchdogs, including the Columbia Journalism Review, have
criticized El País, the country’s leading daily, based in Madrid, for a pro-government line they say has
distorted its news coverage.) Méndez de Vigo also disputed the idea that there had been no dialogue
between Catalonia’s politicians and the central government—they had been in talks since 2012, he said.
“The dialogue is whether you can find a solution for certain political aspirations and accommodate. This
is what politics is about,” he said. “But if the other party only wants one thing and that one thing is
independence, the government doesn’t want and cannot give it because we have a constitution and the
right of self-determination is not in it. Dialogue is very difficult.” Indeed. And yet what about the images
of Spanish police roughing up voters? Wasn’t Madrid’s response heavy-handed? Here Méndez de Vigo
bristled a bit. “It happened because the referendum is illegal and the judge told them, ‘Avoid this illegal
referendum,’” he said. “These things happen,” he continued. “We don’t like these images, but it
happened. I think afterwards it was over-exaggerated. Two people injured.” I asked him if the officers
seen roughing up people had been identified and disciplined. He paused. “I can’t tell you. I don’t know,”
he said.
A2: Civil War
1. First, some defense. Catalonia will never attack for two reasons:
a. Beckhusen 17 explains they don’t have a military, so they know they’d be
wiped out if they attacked, which is why they won’t.
b. The Guardian tells us that the movement has been peaceful because Catalonia’s
leader has explicitly told them not to use violence. The movement itself hasn’t
been violent so there’s no reason to believe they want war.
This is really important because Couzens of Express Magazine writes that Spanish
leaders have said they will only take serious military action if Catalonia makes the first
move. Insofar as we show you the probability of that is low, the probability of any
major conflict is unlikely.
2. Second, turn it against them. Other movements within Spain like the Basque
movement have been historically violent, and if you legitimize these
movements by granting Catalonia independence, then it would just result in
more illegal movements creating violence in the long term. This is why Siroky of
Duke University finds in a meta-analysis of secessionist movements in Europe
that violence AFTER a secession is present 87% of the time.
Jones, Sam, and Daniel Boffey. “Sacked Catalan president condemns 'brutal judicial offensive'.”
theguardian.com, The Guardian, 11/6/17, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/06/carles-
puigdemont-sacked-catalan-president-condemns-brutal-judicial-offensive
“Today, the leaders of this democratic project stand accused of rebellion and face the severest
punishment possible under the Spanish penal code; the same as for cases of terrorism and murder: 30
years in prison,” he said. Puigdemont said he doubted that he and his colleagues would get a “fair and
independent hearing” and called for “scrutiny from abroad” to help bring the Catalan crisis to a political,
rather than judicial, conclusion. He added: “The Spanish state must honour what was said so many times
in the years of terrorism: end violence and we can talk about everything. We, the supporters of Catalan
independence, have never opted for violence, on the contrary. But now we find it was all a lie that
everything is up for discussion.” The former Catalan leader fled to Brussels with a handful of cabinet
colleagues last week, hours before Spain’s attorney general announced he would be seeking to bring
charges of rebellion, sedition and misuse of public funds against them. On Thursday, a national court
judge ordered the jailing of the eight Catalan politicians and, a day later, issued a European arrest
warrant for Puigdemont and four of his allies.
Gerard Couzens 17, 10-30-2017, "Catalonia in CRISIS: Army 'READY to intervene over independence'
amid fears of CIVIL WAR," Express.co.uk, https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/873187/Catalonia-
Spain-independence-referendum-news-army-intervene-civil-war
Referring to Spain's years of dictatorship under General Francisco Franco, he said: "The army in
Spain unfortunately has some connotations which take us back forty-odd years so the Spanish
government is going to be especially cautious. "If the situation remains calm, the army won't be
deployed. "But if there is the slightest risk that any strategic installations are going to be taken, such
as reservoirs, ports, airports, nuclear power stations, the army would be deployed to defend them."
Siroky, David S. “Secession and Survival: Nations, States and Violent Conflict.” pdfs.semanticscholar.org,
Duke University, 2009, p. 276,
https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/c637/60e3f257bf10372e8949bb5716920d5d843b.pdf
The motivating question of this project is whether, and if so under which conditions, secession can
produce peace rather than war. The short answer is that secession can produce peace, but under quite
idiosyncratic circumstances, restrictive definitions of peace, and with a bit of luck. Most secessions, I
find, generate some form of conflict, more than half experience especially nasty forms of violence such
as recursive secessionist violence or militarized interstate disputes within the first five or ten years after
secession, while other secessions settle on lesser forms of violence, such as ethnic riots. What is clear
from the data, however, is that secessionist rarely get away scot-free. Violence (of any kind) after
secession is all too common (87%).
A2: Police Brutality/Violence Against Protestors
1. The problem is solving itself. Deutsche Welle News reports on December 27
that Spain began pulling out police troops, ending the Spanish occupation.
“Spanish government begins withdrawal of thousands of police from Catalonia” 27.12.2017

http://www.dw.com/en/spanish-government-begins-withdrawal-of-thousands-of-police-from-
catalonia/a-41940101
The Spanish government on Tuesday announced that it had begun pulling out police reinforcements
from Catalonia, almost three months after they were sent to halt an independence referendum that the
Constitutional Court had declared illegal. Spain's Interior Ministry and the Spanish police union said the
withdrawal should be completed by Saturday. Madrid deployed thousands of additional officers from
Spain's National Police and Guardia Civil to Catalonia in September, just as the northeastern region was
preparing to vote in a contested independence referendum. The vote on October 1 was subsequently
marred by scenes of violence , as police used batons and rubber bullet to try and force voters away from
the polling booths. At least 92 people were injured in the clashes, while Catalan authorities claimed at
the time that as many as 900 people needed hospital and medical attention on the day of the vote.
Although Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's government never placed an exact figure on the
number of additional officers sent to Catalonia, most media estimated it to be between 4,000 and 6,000.
However, Spain's top-selling daily, El Pais, put the figure at around 10,000. The crackdown prompted
Catalan separatists to dub the Spanish police reinforcements as an "occupying force."
A2: Military Forces
1. First of all, recognize that Catalonia’s contribution to NATO or military power in
general is pretty negligible. By most reports, Catalonia would be able to muster
AT MOST a military of about 20,000 people. Right now, Spain has over 6 times
that many.
2. But second, the status quo is solving for this problem anyway. The Spanish
Local reports earlier today that Spain is increasing their military spending in
order to contribute more to NATO.
“Russian meddling in Catalonia polls 'unacceptable' and taken 'very seriously' by NATO” 26 January 2018
https://www.thelocal.es/20180126/russian-meddling-in-catalonia-unacceptable-and-taken-very-
seriously-by-nato
Stoltenberg also welcomed Wednesday's announcement by Madrid that it would increase military
spending by 73 percent by 2024, even though it will miss the target of 2.0 percent of GDP set by NATO.
"I encourage them to continue in this direction," he said.
A2: Widespread Support
1. The referendum was in no way representative of Catalonia. Sehran of the
Atlantic reports that while the referendum had 90% support, it only had 42%
turnout. Padilla of the London School of Economics warrants this, finding that
the electoral system has an anti-urban bias that disproportionately emphasizes
pro-independence viewpoints.
2. If you want to abide by public opinion, then you should vote Con. An official
survey from the Catalonian Government Survey Institute found that only 41%
of citizens support independence, and the Wall Street Journal (Nov 2017)
founds that 54% of citizens directly oppose it. Furthermore, Euronews reports
last month that in the most recent wave of elections, the party that gained the
most seats in Parliament was actually anti-Independence. They warrant that
this is because the radical nationalists behind the nationalist movement are
quickly losing favorability. Secession does not have the support they say it
does.
3. This is corroborated by Conrad of American Thinker who writes that while
separatist parties gained a majority in parliament, they actually lost the popular
vote because Catalonia’s districting allows rural provinces to hold more seats in
parliament. In fact, pro-Union parties won 51% of the vote on December 21.
4. (Constitution). Foreign Policy Magazine explains that 92% of Catalans voted for
the Spanish Constitution. (Say stuff about constitution>self-determination
bogusness)
Yasmeen Sehran, 10-3-17, The Atlantic, The Catalonia Referendum: It’s a Constitutional Crisis,
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/10/catalonia-referendum-constitutional-
crisis/541701/
Sunday’s referendum, which saw a turnout rate 10 points higher than a similar vote held in 2014,
resulted in an overwhelming 90 percent vote in favor of Catalan independence—though turnout was
still only around 42 percent of eligible voters.
Javier Padilla and Luis Cornago Bonal September 28, 2017 “An Explanation of the Current Political
Situation in Catalonia” http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/eurocrisispress/2017/09/28/an-explanation-of-the-current-
political-situation-in-catalonia/
In 2015, the Catalan regional election was billed as a plebiscite on independence from Spain. The pro-
independence (the nationalist coalition Junts pel Sí and the far-left Popular Unity Candidacy) obtained
47.8 per cent of the votes. However, due to the anti-urban bias of the electoral system (a system that
over represents rural and small towns where pro-independence parties are electorally more successful),
secessionists’ parties won an absolute majority of seats in the Catalan parliament with a clear promise of
calling for a referendum. Subsequently, in order to fulfil the independentist dream, the Catalan
Government has passed two laws which violate the Spanish Constitution and Catalan laws. AND Catalan
authorities speak of the Catalan people as a homogeneous and quasi-mythical entity. However, the
reality is that the Catalan society is very diverse just like their preferences. According to a recent survey
from the Catalan Government’s Survey Institute (CEO), only 41.1 percent of the Catalans prefer
independence to other possible scenarios. And even though there is a wide majority of Catalans who
stand for a legal referendum, only 35 per cent of the Catalans agree with the recent laws approved by
the Catalan regional parliament. Likewise, only 34 percent see secession as a realistic solution in the
short term. On the other hand, Catalonia is also divided across language lines or due to the origin of its
population. For instance, as the professor of the University of Zaragoza Pau Mari-Klose has pointed out,
the correlation between being a native Catalan speaker and support of independence is strong. In
relation to the language, while more than a half of Catalan citizens use Spanish more commonly in daily
life, almost four out of ten Catalans have Catalan as their main language.
“Difficult talks are starting after Catalonia's election” By Euronews last updated: 23/12/2017
http://www.euronews.com/2017/12/23/difficult-talks-are-starting-after-catalonias-election
Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has said he will only begin talks with the next Catalan President
within the country. His statement is in response to an offer by Carles Puigdemont, leader of the
Together for Catalonia party, to hold talks outside of Spain. Following the regional election in Catalonia,
in which no party gained an outright majority, Mr Rajoy said he was willing to hold talks with whoever
took control of the Catalan regional government "in a realistic way and inside the law". At a press
conference Spanish President Mariano Rajoy said the national government was willing to talk to the new
leader. However, he stipulated that talks would need to be inside of Spain. This is because the former
President Carles Puidgemont is in self-imposed exile in Belgium. He faces possible arrest if he returns to
Spain because of his role in the illegal independence referendum. The Catalan government had claimed
that 90% of people that voted were in favour of independence, but this result was based on less than
half the population voting. Speaking at a press conference Rajoy said "The government of Spain would
like to offer all its co-operation and all its willingness for a constructive, open and realistic dialogue. But
always within the rule of the law." Combined the separatist parties had a slim majority. However, the
largest single winner of the Catalan election was the pro-union party Cuidadonos. It's leader Inés
Arrimadas has been compared by some to the French President Emmanuel Macron. He victory has
been seen as a sign by some that the nationalists are falling out of favour. Cuidadonos did not gain
enough votes to form a majority. Despite this their popularity could be a threat to Rajoy's Popular Party
when Spain next holds national elections.
Mike Conrad, 12-28 17, Befuddlement in Catalonia, American Thinker,

http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2017/12/befuddlement_in_catalonia.html
I am neither in favor of nor against Catalonia’s independence. The recent turn of elections, where the
independentistas won a majority of seats in the parliament, has proven nothing. What does remain is an
absolute amazement at the incompetence of Iberian government on all sides at all levels. Aggravating
this are remarkable levels of fake news. Before one addresses the recent elections, which the
independentistas won, we should start in June of 2017, when the Catalan government itself ran a poll.
The result showed a then embarrassing drop in support for independence, down to a mere 41.1%. The
link to the original poll on the government site has been “conveniently” taken down, but we know the
results. [T]he percentage of people supporting a Catalan independent state dropped to 41.1 percent in
June [2017] from 44.3 percent in March. Beneath all the hype, the independentistas did not have a clear
majority as late as six months ago, and their own polls showed that support was decreasing at that time.
That the Catalan authorities even bothered to stage an election in October was beyond all reason,
unless they planned to engineer results. The central Madrid government declared the election illegal
when it could have avoided a problem by declaring it merely pointless. To be sure, Madrid’s violent
actions to suppress the elections were thuggish and counterproductive. A mere four months from the
June poll that showed 41.1% approval, suddenly, the “approval” for independence jumped to an
astounding 92% overall in October, if you can believe it. Apparently, approval for independence had
more than doubled in just four months. Incredible! The Catalan government sold the election results to
the world as a truly democratic expression of the will of the Catalan people. One is amazed at how
many people bought that line. Clearly, what happened is that only one side showed up to vote in
October, with the pro-Madrid electorate preferring to obey Madrid’s prohibition on voting in an illegal
election. This is not to favor Madrid. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s Partido Popular (Popular Party) has
a reputation for quasi-fascist sympathies. Over the past decade, The Partido Popular has intervened
through lawsuits and legal trickery to suppress expressions of Catalan autonomy, in a manner the
Catalans rightly considered unconstitutional. By 2010, the Catalans had had enough, and the drive for
independence started with a massive rally in Barcelona. This much can be seen in this video of the 2010
rally: Along the way, Madrid authorities handed down positively obscene rulings like overturning a
Catalan ban on bullfighting. One gets a sense of provocations from the central Madrid authorities akin to
the Intolerable Acts that led to the American Revolution. But there the similarities end. Contrary to what
is told in popular American history, our forefathers laid strong groundwork to gain popular
support. The ratio of one third in favor of the Revolution, one third against, and one third neutral is
based on an unreliable quote, attributed to John Adams, but without merit. Adams’s quote actually
referred to American sympathies with the French Revolution. In reality, the popularity of the American
Revolution was much stronger, and while Tories were a problem, they were a clear minority. There is
evidence a large part of the population supported independence before the reluctant leaders in the
Congress would vote upon or commit that sentiment to paper. … Recent historians of the Loyalists, such
as William Nelson, have estimated them at no more than a sixth of the population. The Founders would
never have started the Revolution with the low support base seen in Catalonia. The American
Revolution was a bottom-up operation, where the leaders reflected the will of the people. Barcelona
was a top-down fiasco, where the leaders tried to engineer a false majority. False? Regarding the
December vote: The pro-independence parties did not, however, win the popular vote, failing once
again to secure a share of more than 50%. The secessionist parties defied consistent poll predictions of a
hung parliament to secure an absolute majority of 70 seats out of 135, and 47.5 percent of the popular
vote. Meanwhile the unionist bloc took 57 seats, with 43.4 percent of the vote[.] The independentistas
won a razor-thin majority in the Catalan parliament, but only because the results were tilted by
district-apportioning that favored the more Catalan rural districts. Barcelona itself is not as
secessionist as the rest of Catalonia, and the independentistas know it. Madrid-supporters have used
that anomaly to call for Tabarnia (a coastal region including Barcelona) to secede from Catalonia.
Moreover, Franco purposefully planted Spaniards in Catalonia to frustrate Catalonian designs. They are
a large group today. Britain tried the same stunt in Ireland by planting British settlers in Ulster, but the
unionists remained a rather small minority for most of the period of British rule, which led to the
gerrymandering of Ulster to create an artificial local majority. Franco was more thorough. Catalan
unionists are a rather large segment at 43.4%. The independentistas have not won them over. Worse
yet, the independentistas have relied on Muslim immigrants educated in Catalan, with no attachment
to Madrid, to fortify their vote. They use outsiders no less than Franco. So what we see is popular
support for independence at 41.1% in June, 92% in October, and then back down to 47.5% in
December. Look at those numbers! Do they look stable? If anything, it is the October vote that is the
most unreliable. This is not the way to win a revolution. The amount of corruption in both Madrid and
Barcelona is appalling, and this crisis is being manipulated by both sides to hide it. Both the ruling PP
party and Catalonia’s independentists are using the national question to whitewash their own history of
corruption and enthusiasm for austerity. The incompetence of Barcelona is perfectly matched by Prime
Minister Rajoy, who must have been out of his mind to order another election and to expect better
results. Prime Minister Rajoy’s People’s Party (Partido Popular) lost most of its seats in the Thursday
election, dropping from 11 to three. Probably in recognition of its failure, Madrid has ordered
withdrawal of Spanish police. What Spain will do now is anybody’s guess. The independentistas have
won a “questionable” victory, but not a mandate. Prime Minister Rajoy has suffered a major defeat.
Neither side has a true appreciation for democracy; rather, both show a willingness to manipulate
results. What we see is a European tendency for leaders to manipulate the electorate rather than lead
the stirrings of popular will. No side is correct in Catalonia. The independentistas should have waited for
another generation of language education to take hold so that the unionists could have been won over
to a Catalan sensibility. Catalan use is growing, but it is often a second language still. Beneath all of this
is the fake press. European news sources are incredibly biased one way or the other. It is astounding to
see how this Euro paper or that Euro news site delivers only half the story with no substantial
explanation. Catalonia is a mess, in every sense of the word. Both sides are manipulative and corrupt.
These elections prove nothing except that European “democracy” has never even risen to the level of
Tammany Hall. Tammany, at least, knew how to sense the public mood and knew when to back off.
Runde, Daniel. “The Case Against Catalan Independence.” Foreign Policy. 18 Sept 2015. Web.
http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/09/18/the-case-against-catalan-independence-spain/.
Catalonia fully participated in the transition to democracy in the late 1970s and a sweeping
majority in Catalonia ratified the Spanish Constitution, which allowed for strong Catalan
autonomy. The Spanish Constitution that they agreed to does not contemplate secession.” The
vote to which the author refers is the Catalan autonomy referendum which took place in 1979
with 91.91% votes for the Spanish Constitution and 8.09% against and was conducted in
Catalonia (results). The legitimacy of the Constitution gives a baseline for the con in which they
can fairly state that Catalonia complied with the government and outlined their own autonomous
society.
A2: Foreign intervention in Catalonia
World superpowers are in support of Spain
Kerr ‘17: Chloe Kerr, 10-27-2017, "Spain on brink of CIVIL WAR: Defiant Catalonia declares independence as Senate takes power,"
Express.co.uk, https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/871782/catalonia-SpainDIRECT-RULE-madrid-mariano-rajoy
The British government said they did not respect the "illegal" actions in Catalonia. Prime Minister
Theresa May's official spokesman said the declaration was based on a vote which had been declared illegal and that the UK wanted to
see the unity of Spain preserved. "The UK does not and will not recognise the unilateral declaration of
independence made by the Catalan regional parliament," the spokesman said in a statement "It is based on a vote
that was declared illegal by the Spanish courts. We continue to want to see the rule of law upheld, the
Spanish constitution respected, and Spanish unity preserved." “US State Department said Catalonia is an
integral part of Spain and expresses its support for the government measures to keep "Spain united".
The EU does not side with Catalonia; therefore Spain would have far more allies
Wildman ‘17: Sarah Wildman, 10-2-2017, "Why part of Spain is trying to secede — and why the
Spanish government cracked down on it," Vox,
https://www.vox.com/world/2017/10/2/16393956/catalonia-catalan-independence-crackdown-vote-
referendum
In a country that has only been a democracy for four decades, the scenes of police violence — which left some 800 people injured — looked like
The Catalans called upon the European Union to intervene on
images from Spain’s bygone era of fascist leadership.
their behalf. The EU officially refused. “This is an internal matter for Spain that has to be dealt with in
line with the constitutional order of Spain,” a spokesperson for the EU said on Monday morning. The
spokesperson then went further and warned the Catalans that their independence drive risked leaving
them even more isolated internationally. “Beyond the purely legal aspects of this matter, the
Commission believes that these are times for unity and stability, not divisiveness and fragmentation,” the
statement read. That kind of language is meant to put down any notion that an independent Catalonia would be a formal member of the EU —
and to stop other secession movements from getting similar ideas. If the Catalans won independence, theoretically there would be little to stop
the Flemish from breaking away from Belgium, or the Corsicans from peeling off from France. In other words, creating the theoretical nation of
Catalonia wouldn’t simply be a blow to Spain; it would also be a potentially large blow to the territorial integrity of an array of other EU nations.
A2: Ousting Rajoy
1) Mariano Rajoy has survived multiple political struggles including a Major Housing
crisis and a major corruption scandal. He won the last General election with a 33.1%
approval rating. If corruption, a bad economy, and unpopularity couldn’t stop Mariano
Rajoy, why should we believe he could be stopped from winning the next election.
Dan Hancox, Foreign Policy, 12/16/2015, Nobody Likes Mariano Rajoy
Even his most fierce opponents would concede Mariano Rajoy is a survivor. After becoming leader of the
conservative People’s Party (PP) in 2004, Rajoy lost his first two general elections to their historic rivals
the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE by its Spanish acronym), surviving a helicopter crash in the
process. As prime minister since 2011, he has presided over the highest unemployment rate since
democracy returned in the 1970s (26.9 percent), a housing crisis in which over 400,000 families have
been evicted, swinging cuts to public services, two general strikes, the increasing likelihood that
Catalonia might secede from Spain, and a major financial corruption scandal at the heart of the PP in
which he was personally implicated.
Going into Sunday’s general election, the sitting prime minister’s astonishing perseverance again seems
to be serving him well.
In early December, the country’s national statistics institute, the CIS, conducted a survey of the
popularity of party leaders, asking for a rating out of ten. Of the six largest national parties contesting
the election, Rajoy came in last, with an average rating of 3.31. Yet, against all odds, Rajoy’s party is still
leading in all the polls. Despite a Spanish electorate that feels little evident passion for his leadership
(and a portion of which doesn’t even conceal its outright disdain for him), there’s every chance Rajoy
will still be prime minister next week.
A2: Democracy
Two turns to their arguments
1. First, the University of Barcelona explains that the leaders of the Catalan
movement are picking and choosing what rules they want to follow, destroying
the democratic state and the rule of law. Project Syndicate corroborates stating
the independence movement is anything but democratic.
2. Second, Treisman of the Washington Post explains that economic development
promotes democracy, meaning if we prove Catalonia is better off economically
in the status quo, you flow democracy to us.
Nacho Martin Blanco, Professor, Abat Oliba CEU University of Barcelona, “The Case Against Catalan
Secession,” AL JAZEERA, 9—1—17, www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2017/07/case-catalan-
secession-170728105819426.html, accessed 12-1-17.
Perhaps the most tragic and lasting consequence of this political moment is the effect this is having on
public opinion, eroding the idea of the state and the rule of law within a democratic framework that
guarantees our individual rights and freedoms. After five years of continuous invective spewed by pro-
independence politicians and commentators against the Spanish Constitution of 1978, this sort of
depressing antisystemic discourse that would revile our hard-won democratic gains is not only becoming
tolerated, but normalised. It is bad enough that nationalist leaders have managed to normalise a disdain
for the rules of our democratic, constitutional system. But what is worse is that they have managed to
do it from within the very institutions of the system that they so scorn. To those who would constantly
try to caricature Spain as being a nation of "low democratic quality", it is worth pointing to The
Economist's Democracy Index, which in 2016 grouped Spain once again among "full democracies", akin
to Germany or the United Kingdom. The philosopher Karl Popper described democracy's strength not so
much as "the rule of the people" as "the rule of law", the restraining of power through constitutions and
institutions that acted on behalf of the people. This is the essence of liberal democracy, settled in a
system of reciprocal checks and balances designed to guarantee individual rights and freedoms and
avoid the abuse of power, whether tyranny or simply overstepping one's authority. Today in Catalonia
we have a government presuming to be the only qualified judge of its own cause, deciding as they
please which laws or judicial resolutions are applicable to them and their relatives, and which are not.
If we were to accept this, it would also mean accepting, by extension, that everyone else in society
has the same right, and could presumably take the law into their own hands. This would lead to
nothing less than the wholesale destruction of the democratic state and the rule of law.
Miguel Otero-Iglesias 18, 1-18-2018, "A Compromise for Catalonia? by Miguel Otero-Iglesias," Project
Syndicate, https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/catalonia-secession-constitutional-reform-
by-miguel-otero-iglesias-2018-01
Among the biggest misconceptions is the belief that secessionist leaders are democratic; they are
anything but. Not only did they violate Spain’s constitution in launching their bid for
independence; they also ignored the Statute of Autonomy of Catalonia, the region’s highest law,
when they rammed a secession law through the Catalan parliament in September 2017.
Treisman, Daniel. “Economic Development Promotes Democracy, but There’s a Catch.” The Washington
Post, WP Company, 29 Dec. 2014, www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-
cage/wp/2014/12/29/economic-development-promotes-democracy-but-theres-a-
catch/?utm_term=.0548983eb4fa.
In a recent article I suggest a reason why this debate refuses to die. Economic development does lead
to greater democracy but not in a smooth, incremental way. At certain times, a country’s income
matters a lot for its political evolution; in other periods, income’s influence is muted. What opens such
windows is leadership succession. As authoritarian states become richer, they do tend to become more
democratic—but the impact of development is concentrated in the early years of new authoritarian
leaders.
A2: Self-Determination
1. Zheng of the Columbia Journal of Transnational Law reports that when looking
specifically at Catalonia, they have no legal authority to secede under
international law. They do not have the required prerequisites to qualify for
international law concerns.
2. Mingiu of Open Democracy explains that self-determination claims are only
valid if there have been systematic rights infringements upon an endangered
community. This is not the case for Catalonia, which has advanced autonomous
rule. CNN contextualizes that Catalonia has control over healthcare, education,
and tax collection. These freedoms prove that self-determination claims are
unwarranted.
3. Finally, turn this against them for two reasons.
a. Baran of the World Bulletin reports that allowing secession under the
doctrine of “self-determination” would only increase the power of
secessionists, leading to more conflict between those pro-Europe and Anti-
Europe. Gottlieb of the University of Chicago warrants that this would
unleash anarchy and disorder worldwide. He argues this would make it
harder to maintain peace and prevent conflict.
b. Preece of Purdue University finds that minority efforts to secede under the
doctrine of self-determination lead to civil strife, regional instability, and
large influxes of refugees because regional governments can’t provide for
their citizens
“Can Catalonia Achieve Independence Through a Unilateral Declaration of Independence Under

International Law?” (Xi (Brooke) Zheng is a second-year J.D. student at Columbia Law School. She holds a
Master of Arts in International Studies from University of Denver and a Master of Law in Human Rights
from The University of Hong Kong.) http://jtl.columbia.edu/can-catalonia-achieve-independence-
through-a-unilateral-declaration-of-independence-under-international-law/
Applying these rules to the situation in Catalonia, Catalonia cannot legally secede from Spain through a
unilateral declaration of independence alone even though the declaration does not violate international
law. Despite its long history of fighting for independence, Catalonia was not colonized or oppressed, and
was granted a high degree of autonomy by the Spanish government. Its status does not rise to the
threshold that the right of self-determination could be invoked. According to Reference re Secession of
Quebec, the only way for Catalonia to become an independent state would be through Spain’s
authorization and recognition. This option is unrealistic because the Constitutional Court of Spain has
already decided that Catalonia has no right to declare independence. Moreover, under ICJ’s 2010
advisory opinion, Catalonia’s argument would be weak because unlike the Kosovo situation where the
UNMIK (setting the constitutional framework for Kosovo) did not prohibit the declaration of
independence, the October 1 referendum, which legitimatizes a declaration of independence, is deemed
unconstitutional under the Spanish Constitution. Therefore, even if Catalonia eventually makes an
explicit unilateral declaration of independence, it cannot achieve independence simply through such
declaration.
Connolly, Christopher K. (Christopher K. Connolly is an Assistant US Attorney with the Southern District
of New York for the Department of Justice.) “Independence in Europe: Secession, Sovereignty, and the
European Union.” Duke Journal of Comparative and International Law. 2013. Web.
Self-determination is a vague concept that is distorted by the key figures of a movement rather than the
people’s will as seen in modern sentiment versus the 1979 referendum. Despite its gradual acceptance
as a legal right, self-determination has continued to suffer from a fundamental problem: nobody can
agree on exactly what it means … But international law is, first and foremost, a set of rules made by
and for states, and states unsurprisingly have been reluctant to condone a right that would justify
their own dismemberment
Mingiu-Pippidi, Alina. [Professor of Democracy at the Hertie School of Governance in Berlin]. “Why
Catalonia does not deserve to be independent,” openDemocracy. October 31, 2017.
Of course, if there is a real threat to the identity or survival of the minority group in the seceding
region, its right to self-determination becomes stronger. The international community respects
existing borders, but has acknowledged secessions by endangered regions or groups whose rights
were systematically infringed by the state they lived in. This was the situation of Kosovo, where the
entire education in their native language had first been suppressed under the Communist
strongman Slobodan Milosevic, followed by a mass expulsion of Kosovar Albanians by the Yugoslav
army once an armed conflict broke down. The Kurds can also point to the Anfal genocide that killed
over 50,000 Kurds and the enforced change of the ethnic character of Kurd areas like Kirkuk
through Arabization during Saddam Hussein. The forces surrounding them today are not so very
different from the ones during the Iran-Iraq war that ended in their victimization, and so their
argument that they alone can ensure their own safety (especially after their heroic fight against
ISIS) is worth listening to. They have a legitimate claim which should be discussed peacefully. But
not so the Catalans. They have an advanced autonomous rule in a country ranked by OECD in the
top ten in the world where fiscal decentralization (direct collection of taxes by the sub-national
units) is concerned. Not only are their general human rights not infringed upon in democratic
Spain, which also ranks among the most democratic countries in the world by Freedom House or
Human Watch standards, but their linguistic policy had been, on the contrary, one of exclusion, not
inclusion[1].
Smith-Spark, Laura. [Middle East, Europe, and Africa correspondent]. “Catalonia government
dissolved after declaring independence from Spain,” CNN World. October 28, 2018.
Several times during its history, Catalonia has found itself caught between the rivalries of France
and Spain. The region industrialized before the rest of Spain and had strong anarchist, socialist and
communist movements that all fought against Gen. Francisco Franco in the Spanish Civil War in the
1930s. The current dispute goes back to that conflict. Franco repressed Catalonia’s earlier limited
autonomy, and in the early years of the dictatorship at least, expressions of Catalan language and
culture. Four years after Franco’s 1975 death, the region regained some of that autonomy. In 2006,
Madrid backed Catalonia’s calls for even greater powers, granting it “nation” status and financial
control. But four years later, the Constitutional Court rescinded that status, ruling that while
Catalan is a “nationality,” Catalonia itself is not a nation. One of Spain’s 17 autonomous provinces,
Catalonia has had its own regional government with considerable powers over health care,
education and tax collection.
Deniz Baran – Turkey, December 3, 2017, Does “Self-Determination” Right Grant the Right for
Unilateral Independence?http://www.worldbulletin.net/haberler/196511/does-self-determination-right-
grant-the-right-for-unilateral-independence
There is no doubt that there is the right to self-determination in the framework of the international law,
yet it is also possible to argue that the utilization of the right to self-determination was carried out in the
colonial context roughly a half-century ago in order to facilitate the legal independence of colonized
states and that it is now highly arguable how to utilize the right to self-determination in the modern day. It
seems that any use of the right to self-determination to pave the way for unilateral independence and
secession attempts while harming the territorial integrity of existing states would not be approved by the
international community. Such an interpretation still constitutes a strict minority of adherents to the
doctrine. In addition, when the right to self-determination is assessed not only from the perspective of the
international law but also from the perspective of realpolitik, passing over the constitutional framework,
which is binding for different “peoples”—e.g. ethnic, religious groups, etc. within existing states—and
paving the way for arbitrary secession attempts would again pose a great danger for the maintenance of
the peace, both at a local and a global level. Such a justification for separatist movements would also
damage the efforts to reach compromises between different groups within existing states and result in the
spread of the separatist trends across the world.
Jennifer Jackson Preece "Failed States and International Security II: Sources of Prevention, Modes of
Response, and Conditions of State Success and Renewal" Purdue University, West Lafayette April 8-11,
1999 http://www.comm.ucsb.edu/faculty/mstohl/failed_states/1999/papers/Jackson-Preece.html
The frustrated political ambitions of national minorities - which would initially appear to be a subject for
domestic politics of the states concerned - became significant for international relations because of their
potential to create disruption and disorder within the nation-states system. Minority efforts to achieve
national self-determination may put international stability at risk by creating violence within states,
by drawing in neighboring states, by inspiring similar secessionist or irredentist movements elsewhere
or by precipitating mass refugee flows across frontiers. Indeed, such nationalist acts are often
committed in the hope of creating as much international disorder as possible so as to encourage the
redistribution of state sovereignty: this is the dynamic which brings national minorities on to the
international agenda and makes national minority questions subjects of international as well as
domestic politics. Within international relations, minority rights are an attempt to limit the potential
destabilizing effects of exceptions to the prevailing rule of state legitimacy. Behind these guarantees is
the assumption that granting special concessions to minorities will make them less inclined to challenge
the existing territorial status quo.
A2: Fighting Colonialism
1. Padilla of the London School of Economics reports that the right to self-
determination only applies to cases of foreign invasion, colonialism, or
discrimination, none of which apply to Catalonia.
Javier Padilla and Luis Cornago Bonal September 28, 2017 “An Explanation of the Current Political
Situation in Catalonia” http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/eurocrisispress/2017/09/28/an-explanation-of-the-current-
political-situation-in-catalonia/
It has to be said that there is much to discuss within the constitutional-legal limits. Some of the
traditional nationalistic Catalan claims are legitimate and new political ways of accommodating the
discontent in Catalonia are clearly needed. But the Spanish Constitution court does not allow a
referendum on secession at present. Claiming a right of self-determination according to international
law is misleading. International law only recognizes self-determination when cases of foreign
invasion, colonialism and discrimination of minorities are taking place. It is clear that Catalonia is not
in any of those scenarios, although many independentist act as if one of those assumptions were true
and Catalonia could be comparable with Kosovo.
A2: Precedent Exists
1. Catalonia is uniquely different. Connolly of the Duke Journal of International
Law reports that with other secessionist movements, the national government
had given the region consent to hold a referendum, whereas Catalonia did not
have permission. In essence, Catalonia is trying to mount a revolution within
Spanish borders.
2. The UN has literally released a report saying that misinterpreting the right to
self-determination as the right to secede directly threatens international
stability
Connolly, Christopher K. (Christopher K. Connolly is an Assistant US Attorney with the Southern District
of New York for the Department of Justice.) “Independence in Europe: Secession, Sovereignty, and the
European Union.” Duke Journal of Comparative and International Law. 2013. Web.
Whereas the British government has demonstrated a willingness to negotiate with Scottish nationalists
over the contours of a referendum, the Spanish government has thus far refused to engage with Catalan
nationalists in a similar fashion
Third Committee. "VIEWED NARROWLY AS RIGHT TO SECEDE, SELF-DETERMINATION COULD THREATEN TERRITORIAL
INTEGRITY OF STATES, THIRD COMMITTEE TOLD | Meetings Coverage and Press Releases." Un.org. 28 Dec. 2017. Web. 4 Jan.
2018. <https://www.un.org/press/en/2002/gashc3708.doc.htm>
As the General Assembly's Third Committee (Social, Humanitarian and Cultural) concluded consideration of racism and the right of peoples to self-determination this afternoon, the
the right to self-determination, if viewed narrowly as the right to secede,

representative of Liechtenstein warned that
could threaten international stability and the territorial integrity of States. Thus interpreted, he
continued, the right to self-determination was more likely to create problems than to offer solutions.
However, viewed more broadly as entailing various forms of self-administration and self-governance, it could offer new perspectives on peaceful coexistence falling short of secession and
separate statehood. Many conflicts occurred because people seeking ways of asserting their distinctive identity found that they had no means by which they could give expression to their
distinctiveness, he said. As a consequence, they viewed independence as their only option, even though it was the one option the State of which they were part was likely to resist to the end –
- by force, if necessary. Such internal conflicts, whether smouldering or escalating, had the capacity to spread beyond the borders of the State in question, with consequent dangers for
international peace and security.
A2: Cultural Differences
1. Every area has its own culture; this doesn’t mean every place with its own
culture should be economically and governmentally independent.
2. Blanco of Politico writes in 2017 that there is no cultural basis for granting
Catalonia independence. He explains that the collective history of Catalans and
the Spanish people outweighs the minor culture claims Catalonia has made.
3. Turn their argument. Politico explains in 2017 that Catalonia is the only regional
government in the world to deny the majority of its population the right to
learn their mother tongue. Catalonia denies people the right to learn Spanish,
teaching the Catalan language in schools instead. Giving Catalonia
independence would lead to cultural domination, rather than cultural
independence.
Nacho Martín Blanco, university professor and political analyst, "Why Catalonia’s call for independence
is unfounded" Politico, January 29, 2017, https://www.politico.eu/article/why-catalonias-call-for-
independence-is-unfoundedcarles-puigdemont-speech-brussels/
The cultural basis on which Puigdemont portends to support the Catalan government’s secessionist
project is entirely without merit. Catalans and the rest of the Spanish people share a long collective
history, including a language, Castilian — known broadly as Spanish — which is as Catalan as the
Catalan language itself, considering it has been spoken in Catalonia since the 15th century. It would be
senseless to break this shared history on the whim induced by Catalan nationalist parties’ propaganda
Nacho Martín Blanco, university professor and political analyst, "Why Catalonia’s call for independence
is unfounded" Politico, January 29, 2017, https://www.politico.eu/article/why-catalonias-call-for-
independence-is-unfoundedcarles-puigdemont-speech-brussels/
Catalonians, as well as the rest of Spanish people, vote in local, regional, general and European elections.
However, just as Bavarians, Corsicans or Venetians do not enjoy the rights of self-determination —
mainly because none of these regions meet the requirements fixed by the U.N. — neither do
Catalonians. Puigdemont claims the Spanish government “says no to the linguistic issue,” when his own
government is the only regional government in the world to deny the majority of its population the right
to be educated in their mother tongue. Catalonia’s exclusion of the Spanish language is unparalleled. But
Puigdemont, of course, did not mention this on his visit to Brussels. Likewise, he avoided admitting that
there is no voter majority in Catalonia in favor of secession. Neither did he mention that the exiguous
parliamentary majority supporting his government hinges on an anti-capitalist party that supports
Catalonia’s exit from the European Union
A2: Catalonia takes in Refugees
1. First, you can turn this against them on face. If Catalonia were granted
independence, they would be in a worse position to hold refugees than they
are currently. JP Morgan reports that in the event of independence, the Catalan
government wouldn’t even be able to provide social services for their people,
since they would be $21 billion short just for their citizens. Add the increased
number of refugees, and Catalonia’s situation becomes even worse
2. Second, the status quo is solving for this. The Spanish Local, a regional
newspaper, reports that in 2016, Spain accepted more refugees than ever
before, 6 times the amount than they usually accept. A Unified Spain is solving
the refugee crisis better than a divided Spain would
“Spain welcomed more refugees than ever before in 2016” 13 March 2017
https://www.thelocal.es/20170313/spain-welcomed-more-refugees-than-ever-before-in-2016
Close to 16,000 people sought asylum in Spain during 2016, more than six times the figure of a year
earlier. But less than half of those who applied for asylum in Spain were successful in their application.
Of the 15,755 people who applied, only 6,855 (43.5 percent) were granted asylum and 3,395 refugees
(21.6 percent) had their applications denied outright. The remaining 5,505 are still waiting for their
applications to be processed.
Other Responses
1. Non unique because Spain has already accepted a lot. So like the status quo is
good on refugees.
2. Majority wants refugees so if they didn’t it would weaken the already weak
minority right wing government.
3. This political pressure is only in he met world, because when you affirm you
deprive Spain of a large percentage of its liberal base. This would further
strengthen the right wing in Spain leading to less action on refugees. This is highly
problematic because Spain has a much larger refugee capacity than Catalonia. I
would contend that a unified Spain which is pro refugee far outweighs a pro
refugee Catalonia and anti refugee Spain.
4. Furthermore, affirming would destroy Catalonia’s economy and do serious

damage to Spain’s, which is important because a good economy is a prerequisite to
accepting refugees.
5. An economic crisis would distract Catalonia and Spain from the refugee
problem. In the face of economic turmoil they would want to protect their own
financial security before worrying about how to save refugees.
6. You can actually turn this because affirming emboldens other secessionist
movements which would lead to more civil wars and widespread Balkanization.
This is problematic because (some stat on civil war creating refugees.)
A2: Catalan independence will decrease political
polarization
The independence movement is responsible for reawakening Spanish nationalism.
Gardner ‘12: David Gardner [reporter, FT], "Separatists reawaken Spanish nationalism," Financial Times, November 21 2012. Available
at: https://www.ft.com/content/b3e6cd00-2f52-11e2-b88b-00144feabdc0
This year’s surge of separatist sentiment in Catalonia and the Basque Country is reawakening what had
appeared to be a dormant Spanish nationalism, led by rightwing forces in and around the ruling Popular
party, with salvos of rhetorical artillery between the two sides poisoning political debate. More
modulated voices that subscribe to neither brand of nationalism are being drowned out by this
increasingly atavistic discourse, which some feel summons up the spectres of Spain’s fractious past.
Faced with a drive for independence by the home rule government of Catalonia ahead of a watershed
election there on Sunday, the central government in Madrid is threatening to use the full force of the
law to prevent Catalan plans for a subsequent plebiscite on the region’s future.
A2: Illegal Migration
1. The EU’s border agency finds that the number illegal immigrants coming into
Spain will double in 2018 regardless of the result of the Catalan crisis. Affirming
doesn’t solve anything.
[EU Border Agency Illegal Immigration]
A2: Secession Inevitable
(I think all of these are delinks—not sure if you can turn this argument)
1. The independence movement is dying. BMI Research explains that inevitable

secession is extremely unlikely unless more than 60% of the population
supports it. However, Nixon of the Wall Street Journal quantifies in November
2017 that 54% of Catalans oppose independence. Prefer this analysis, because
this poll post-dates their 92% statistic from the October referendum.
2. Reuters reports in 2017 that most independence leaders have said they would
drop independence claims if they were given tax autonomy. That means you
can access all their solvency through reform rather than full out independence.
BMI Research, January 1, 2018, Spain Country Risk Report
When regional election are eventually held, it is not certain that pro-independence parties would come
out with a majority of seats in the Catalan parliament. One major problem facing the Catalan
independence movement is that it appears that less than half of the region's electorate actively
supports the idea of a sovereign Catalan nation. Overall party opinion polls in the region show support
for parties advocating independence remain ahead of those supporting the status quo. The two parties
that formed the broad church pro-independence movement Junts pel Si (Together for Yes, JxSi) - the left
wing Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) and the centre-right Catalan European Democratic Party
(PDeCAT) - alongside the far-left Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP), have a majority of seats in the
parliament, but crucially in polling remain short of the 50% support level that could shift the narrative
towards one where self-determination for the region becomes a more realistic possibility. Furthermore,
the ERC has stated that it may not enter into a future JxSi government if it does not continue
to prioritise independence. The ERC leads polls with support between 25% and 30%, while PDeCAT and
the CUP trail with around 12% and 5% to 8% respectively. Support for PDeCAT has trailed off notably
from highs of 18% in early-2017 as pro-independence voters have shifted from the centre-right to
the centre-left.
Simon Nixon [reporter, WSJ], “Spain Sees Signs That Tide Is Turning in Catalonia,” Wall Street Journal,
November 12 2017. Available at: https://www.wsj.com/articles/spainsees- signs-that-tide-is-turning-in-
catalonia-1510524920
MADRID–One of the first things a visitor to Madrid will notice these days is the Spanish flags festooned
from balconies across the capital, something that usually only ever happens when the national football
team is playing in a major tournament. The same is true in other Spanish cities. It is a mark of how the
crisis triggered by the regional government in Catalonia’s decision to hold an independence referendum
that was illegal under the Spanish constitution and subsequently declare independence has reawakened
previously dormant Spanish nationalism, including among the 54% of Catalans who according to a
recent poll oppose independence.
Reuters Editorial 17, 12-30-2017, "Analysis: The Basque," IN, https://in.reuters.com/article/spain-
politics-catalonia-basques/analysis-the-basque-spains-effective-but-expensive-antidote-to-secession-
idINKBN1CE2HM
The Catalan government is not calling for a Basque-style deal, insisting instead on independence
after declaring overwhelming support for secession in an Oct. 1 referendum banned by Madrid.
But the most moderate lawmakers in the region’s ruling coalition privately say they could drop
independence claims if they were given the tax autonomy that Basque Country enjoys. In
Madrid, some socialists have suggested it could serve as a model for a compromise that would
defuse Spain’s biggest political crisis since a failed coup in 1981, although the cost to the central
government would be significant.
A2: Catalonia Will Fight Until They Get Independence
1. The Chicago Tribune writes in 2017 that great internal strife exists within the
independence movement. Catalans don’t agree on how to achieve their goals
which has created factions within the movement. That’s why Casert concludes
that the demise of the movement in inevitable.
2. The Telegraph in 2017 explains that the Catalan president, Puigdemont is facing
over 30 years in prison and has been forced out of the country. Catalonia has
fought for independence for decades now, but little progress has been made.
The article warrants that without their leader the independence movement will
be unable to coordinate resistance.
Casert, Raf. "Failing at home, Catalan leader takes his fight to Europe. The Chicago Tribune.
10/31/17. http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/ct-catalonia-carles-puigdemont-brussels-
20171031-story.html
In the coastal Catalan town of Vilanova i La Geltru, south of Barcelona, separatists were as determined as
ever, despite the legal setbacks. "I want to say that we are with him. And the sad thing is that in order
to be safe, he had to go to Brussels," Jordi Trillas, a local cafe owner, said of Puigdemont. Another
resident, Sergio Cabrera, also said he continued to support the ousted Catalan leader. "He followed his
line," Cabrera said. "The issue is to see whether they hear him or not."Puigdemont's Brussels trip raised
some eyebrows among his political allies, who said they were kept in the dark about it. Pro-
independence parties in Catalonia have long been riven by squabbling over how best to achieve
their goal. The ousted regional minister for business, Santi Vila, who belongs to the separatist
Democratic Party of Catalonia which Puigdemont leads and where she is regarded as a moderate, said
nobody in the party leadership knew about the Brussels plan. "Separatism is legitimate, but it must be
defended within the law," Vila told La Sexta television. "We have to recover our serenity. We wanted to
take Catalonia to the gates of independence, but we have returned it to a period before it had any self-
governance."
"Deposed Catalan president vows to continue independence fight." The Belfast Telegraph. 11/7/17.
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/ deposed-catalan-president-vows-to-continue-independence-fight-
36297527.html
Catalonia's ousted leader has vowed to prolong the fight for independence from Spain and urged the European Union (EU)
to speak out over the jailing of Catalan officials in a rebellion case. Carles Puigdemont's comments came at a campaign-
style rally in Belgium's capital attended by about 200 mayors from Catalonia who greeted the deposed president with chants
of "president" and "freedom". The mayors raised their walking sticks, a symbol of mayoral power in Spain, in the air at the
end of his speech and the crowd sang the Catalan anthem. "We will never renounce this ideal of a country, of this notion of
democracy," Mr Puigdemont told the mayors, gathered in a central Brussels art museum. Flanked by four associates who
fled Spain with him, Mr Puigdemont challenged the Spanish authorities and international community to accept the results of
a snap Catalan election on December 21 if separatists win. Mr Puigdemont and his colleagues could face 30 years in
jail in Spain on charges of rebellion, sedition and embezzlement if Belgian justice authorities agree to extradite
them. Nine former Catalan government members have already been sent to jail in Spain. One of them was released
on bail during the investigation.
A2: Scientific Research
1. This isn’t a problem. Rabesandratana of Science Magazine reports that
Catalonia already has 41 research centers that are free of laws that restrain
scientific research.
2. Turn it against them. Science Magazine reports in September that Catalan
independence would cause a brain drain in the region, causing a massive
decrease in the intellectual diversity for the most gifted scientists in the region
3. Turn it again. The Nature Research Journal reports that in the event of
secession from Spain, Catalonia would lose their major source of grant funding
which is the EU. This would worsen the current state of Catalonian scientific
research that my opponents tell you is so good.
http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/09/researchers-caught-growing-rift-over-catalan-
independence
Juan José Ganuza, an economist at Pompeu Fabra University in Barcelona, is one of few scientists in
Catalonia who has spoken out publicly against independence. Ganuza tells ScienceInsider he is “sad” and
“scared” about what he sees as an inward-looking movement, echoing the recent Brexit vote or Trump’s
“America First” posture. Spain’s research system has much room for improvement, but Catalonia’s
recent scientific success proves that is possible without a breakup, he adds. “Although many Catalan
researchers are [in favor of independence], I believe that if Catalan science had a voice, it would not
be an independentist one,” Ganuza wrote in a column published in Spanish newspaper El País 2 years
ago. “Science fundamentally depends on human capital and talent, and inevitably many valuable
people would leave.”
“Catalan crisis: The upcoming vote on independence is unsettling scientists.” Nature. (Nature Research is
a journal that hosts authors from around the world to discuss global developments in the scientific
spheres of life, physical, chemical, and applied sciences as well as clinical medicine.) 28 September 2017.
Web.
“Yet in the event of independence, Catalonia would automatically leave the European Union, and Spain
would make sure it never got back in. That would weaken the region’s research. For one thing, it would
not be allowed to host those plentiful ERC grants.”
“Higher Education in Regional and City Development- The Autonomous Region of Catalonia, Spain.”
oecd.org, OECD, 2010, https://www.oecd.org/edu/imhe/46826969.pdf
While equity policies have improved in Spain, students’ financial, academic and social support systems
are in need of strengthening. In Catalonia, participation in tertiary education continues to be related to
socioeconomic background. Because of the lack of adequate student support, student mobility is
limited and a significant number of students need to work while studying. There is also a high level of
educational failure with the drop-out rate estimated at 30% by some institutions, and students take
longer than necessary to complete their degree programmes.
A2: Dec 21 Elections mean Independence
1.
Rajoy better positioned to stop independence now and independence parties aren’t even pushing for
it
Agence France Presse, 12-28, 17, Rajoy better armed against Catalan separatists despite poll rout,
http://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/240190-rajoy-better-armed-against-catalan-separatists-despite-
poll-rout
Despite taking fire for losing a snap election in Catalonia, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy faces the new
year better equipped to block a separatist drive in the wealthy region, analysts said. His detractors
have called the results of the December 21 election, which saw separatist parties hold on to their
majority in the Catalan parliament, a “fiasco” and a “rout” for Rajoy, in power since 2011. Pro-
independence parties failed to win a majority of ballots cast but neither did parties in favour of Spanish
unity do as well as was hoped for by the majority of Spain’s political class. Rajoy’s conservative Popular
Party (PP) saw its marginal representation in the 135-seat Catalan parliament reduced even further, to
just four seats, from 11 previously. Its main rival, the relative newcomer Ciudadanos, won the most
seats with 36, mainly by luring away traditional PP supporters. At first glance Rajoy appeared to have
lost his bet by calling the snap polls after he invoked constitution article 155, allowing him to suspend
Catalonia’s autonomy and impose direct rule in response to the separatists’ independence drive. –
Rebellion stifled – But political consultant Ignacio Varela said “article 155 played its role which was not
to win the elections or improve the PP’s results, or make separatism disappear, but rather to stifle a
rebellion against the constitution.” Catalonia’s three separatist parties had approved laws in September
to “disconnect” the region from Spain, organised a banned independence referendum on October 1 and
then proclaimed independence on October 27. After Rajoy intervened, experts said the separatists
recognised that they had underestimated the capacity of the Spanish state to react. They have said
they no longer plan to push for independence unilaterally and favour a negotiated settlement
instead. “Enacting article 155 broke a taboo, without sparking a rebellion,” said Pablo Simon, a politics
professor at Madrid’s Carlos III University. Rajoy has warned repeatedly that he will not hesitate to
invoke article 155 powers again if separatists once again break the law. Pro-independence parties are
now divided over what strategy to follow and may have a hard time capitalising on their success. This
is especially true because the candidate whose list won the most seats, deposed Catalan president
Carles Puigdemont, fled to Belgium to avoid arrest “and his return is not expected”, Oriol Bartomeus,
a political scientist at the Autonomous University of Barcelona. – Surmountable setback – The result of
the elections will have a cost for Rajoy as “PP voters will be strongly tempted to switch their votes to
Ciudadanos”, further weakening his minority government, said Varela. The PP is likely to struggle to win
the support of the Basque National Party (PNV), whose five votes in the national parliament are needed
to adopt the 2018 budget, as long as Catalan separatist leaders are being pursued by the courts, he
added. But Anton Losada, a professor of politics at the University of Santiago de Compostela who has
written a book about Rajoy, said he believes PNV leader Inigo Ukullo, who needs the support of regional
PP lawmakers to keep his post as head of the Basque regional government, will not tie his fate to the
Catalan separatists. And both Bartomeus and Losada downplayed the threat Ciudadanos represents to
the PP. “The logic of strategic voting, that led Catalan voters to Ciudadanos because it was the formation
that could win, will play in the PP’s favour in national elections,” said Bartomeus. 2018 will be difficult
for Rajoy “but what year hasn’t been difficult for him?” Losada asked. “I think he will complete his term,
approve budgets and if he want he will run again in the elections” slated for 2020, he added.
Government financial control means Catalonia cannot push toward independence and they know it
Faber, 1-29, 17, The Nation, Catalonia’s elections take Spain back to square one, Sebastiaan Faber is a
professor of Hispanic Studies at Oberlin College. His most recent book is Memory Battles of the Spanish
Civil War: History, Fiction, Photography, https://www.thenation.com/article/catalonias-elections-take-
spain-back-to-square-one/
Despite what happens in the negotiations, Catalonia will still have to live with the continued threat of
intervention from the central government. The PP, which governs Spain without a parliamentary
majority, has discovered that it can cripple its political rivals simply by throwing sand in their
engines. Before officially revoking Catalan self-government, Cristóbal Montoro, Spain’s minister of
finance, took control of the region’s books. Since then, he has done the same with the city
government of Madrid and the regional government of Valencia, which are both ruled by coalitions
that include Podemos. In each case, Montoro claimed that the progressive administrations were
disobeying his strict, austerity-driven spending rules; in practice, they had cut the budget and planned to
use the newly created surplus to invest in social housing and health care. “I do hope it won’t be
necessary ever to apply Article 155 again,” Spain’s minister of justice, Rafael Catalá, said on Christmas
Day. But, he added, a new Catalan government better not promote “secessionist movements that go
against the Constitution.” Faced with this prospect, Catalonia will have little choice but to slow down
its push for independence. It’s likely that it will instead increase the pressure on Madrid to sit down
and negotiate a new statute for the region.
Secessionist parties are split
AP, 12-29 17, Washington Post, Catalonia’s parliament to reconvene September 17,
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/spain-first-session-of-new-catalan-parliament-on-jan-
17/2017/12/29/c8614b90-ec97-11e7-956e-baea358f9725_story.html?utm_term=.bcd3cdc3f8f7
It remains to be seen if the secessionist parties, which won 70 of the regional parliament’s 135
seats, will be able to form a government. Eight of their deputies elected last week are either in flight
from justice or jailed in Spain while being investigated for alleged rebellion over the independence
declaration. They include former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont, who fled to Belgium after Rajoy
ousted him from office and risks being arrested if he returns to Spain. The former vice president of
Catalonia, Oriol Junqueras, is in jail outside Madrid. Puigdemont’s and Junqueras’ parties are negotiating
which of them to put forward for the regional presidency; the selected candidate must be present at a
session of parliament, which presents obvious obstacles for both men. Unless the status of the eight
elected deputies changes or they cede their seats to other party members, the bloc risks losing the
opportunity to take office again and fresh elections may be called. The three pro-independence parties
were united in the previous parliament, but disagreements have arisen amid the fallout from the
move to break away from Spain and the central government’s takeover of Catalonia’s affairs.
The “popular” majority is not a real one – it is engineered
Mike Conrad, 12-28 17, Befuddlement in Catalonia, American Thinker,

http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2017/12/befuddlement_in_catalonia.html
I am neither in favor of nor against Catalonia’s independence. The recent turn of elections, where the
independentistas won a majority of seats in the parliament, has proven nothing. What does remain is an
absolute amazement at the incompetence of Iberian government on all sides at all levels. Aggravating
this are remarkable levels of fake news. Before one addresses the recent elections, which the
independentistas won, we should start in June of 2017, when the Catalan government itself ran a poll.
The result showed a then embarrassing drop in support for independence, down to a mere 41.1%. The
link to the original poll on the government site has been “conveniently” taken down, but we know the
results. [T]he percentage of people supporting a Catalan independent state dropped to 41.1 percent in
June [2017] from 44.3 percent in March. Beneath all the hype, the independentistas did not have a clear
majority as late as six months ago, and their own polls showed that support was decreasing at that time.
That the Catalan authorities even bothered to stage an election in October was beyond all reason,
unless they planned to engineer results. The central Madrid government declared the election illegal
when it could have avoided a problem by declaring it merely pointless. To be sure, Madrid’s violent
actions to suppress the elections were thuggish and counterproductive. A mere four months from the
June poll that showed 41.1% approval, suddenly, the “approval” for independence jumped to an
astounding 92% overall in October, if you can believe it. Apparently, approval for independence had
more than doubled in just four months. Incredible! The Catalan government sold the election results to
the world as a truly democratic expression of the will of the Catalan people. One is amazed at how
many people bought that line. Clearly, what happened is that only one side showed up to vote in
October, with the pro-Madrid electorate preferring to obey Madrid’s prohibition on voting in an illegal
election. This is not to favor Madrid. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s Partido Popular (Popular Party) has
a reputation for quasi-fascist sympathies. Over the past decade, The Partido Popular has intervened
through lawsuits and legal trickery to suppress expressions of Catalan autonomy, in a manner the
Catalans rightly considered unconstitutional. By 2010, the Catalans had had enough, and the drive for
independence started with a massive rally in Barcelona. This much can be seen in this video of the 2010
rally: Along the way, Madrid authorities handed down positively obscene rulings like overturning a
Catalan ban on bullfighting. One gets a sense of provocations from the central Madrid authorities akin to
the Intolerable Acts that led to the American Revolution. But there the similarities end. Contrary to what
is told in popular American history, our forefathers laid strong groundwork to gain popular
support. The ratio of one third in favor of the Revolution, one third against, and one third neutral is
based on an unreliable quote, attributed to John Adams, but without merit. Adams’s quote actually
referred to American sympathies with the French Revolution. In reality, the popularity of the American
Revolution was much stronger, and while Tories were a problem, they were a clear minority. There is
evidence a large part of the population supported independence before the reluctant leaders in the
Congress would vote upon or commit that sentiment to paper. … Recent historians of the Loyalists, such
as William Nelson, have estimated them at no more than a sixth of the population. The Founders would
never have started the Revolution with the low support base seen in Catalonia. The American
Revolution was a bottom-up operation, where the leaders reflected the will of the people. Barcelona
was a top-down fiasco, where the leaders tried to engineer a false majority. False? Regarding the
December vote: The pro-independence parties did not, however, win the popular vote, failing once
again to secure a share of more than 50%. The secessionist parties defied consistent poll predictions of a
hung parliament to secure an absolute majority of 70 seats out of 135, and 47.5 percent of the popular
vote. Meanwhile the unionist bloc took 57 seats, with 43.4 percent of the vote[.] The independentistas
won a razor-thin majority in the Catalan parliament, but only because the results were tilted by
district-apportioning that favored the more Catalan rural districts. Barcelona itself is not as
secessionist as the rest of Catalonia, and the independentistas know it. Madrid-supporters have used
that anomaly to call for Tabarnia (a coastal region including Barcelona) to secede from Catalonia.
Moreover, Franco purposefully planted Spaniards in Catalonia to frustrate Catalonian designs. They are
a large group today. Britain tried the same stunt in Ireland by planting British settlers in Ulster, but the
unionists remained a rather small minority for most of the period of British rule, which led to the
gerrymandering of Ulster to create an artificial local majority. Franco was more thorough. Catalan
unionists are a rather large segment at 43.4%. The independentistas have not won them over. Worse
yet, the independentistas have relied on Muslim immigrants educated in Catalan, with no attachment
to Madrid, to fortify their vote. They use outsiders no less than Franco. So what we see is popular
support for independence at 41.1% in June, 92% in October, and then back down to 47.5% in
December. Look at those numbers! Do they look stable? If anything, it is the October vote that is the
most unreliable. This is not the way to win a revolution. The amount of corruption in both Madrid and
Barcelona is appalling, and this crisis is being manipulated by both sides to hide it. Both the ruling PP
party and Catalonia’s independentists are using the national question to whitewash their own history of
corruption and enthusiasm for austerity. The incompetence of Barcelona is perfectly matched by Prime
Minister Rajoy, who must have been out of his mind to order another election and to expect better
results. Prime Minister Rajoy’s People’s Party (Partido Popular) lost most of its seats in the Thursday
election, dropping from 11 to three. Probably in recognition of its failure, Madrid has ordered
withdrawal of Spanish police. What Spain will do now is anybody’s guess. The independentistas have
won a “questionable” victory, but not a mandate. Prime Minister Rajoy has suffered a major defeat.
Neither side has a true appreciation for democracy; rather, both show a willingness to manipulate
results. What we see is a European tendency for leaders to manipulate the electorate rather than lead
the stirrings of popular will. No side is correct in Catalonia. The independentistas should have waited for
another generation of language education to take hold so that the unionists could have been won over
to a Catalan sensibility. Catalan use is growing, but it is often a second language still. Beneath all of this
is the fake press. European news sources are incredibly biased one way or the other. It is astounding to
see how this Euro paper or that Euro news site delivers only half the story with no substantial
explanation. Catalonia is a mess, in every sense of the word. Both sides are manipulative and corrupt.
These elections prove nothing except that European “democracy” has never even risen to the level of
Tammany Hall. Tammany, at least, knew how to sense the public mood and knew when to back off.
Spain pulling police from Catalonia – their evidence is old
Egypt Independent, 12-27, 17, Spanish government begins withdrawal of thousands of police from
Catalonia, , http://www.dw.com/en/spanish-government-begins-withdrawal-of-thousands-of-police-
from-catalonia/a-41940101
Spain has announced it will begin to pull out police reinforcements sent to Catalonia ahead of the
region’s contested October independence vote. As many as 10,000 additional officers are thought to
have been deployed. The Spanish government on Tuesday announced that it had begun pulling out
police reinforcements from Catalonia, almost three months after they were sent to halt an
independence referendum that the Constitutional Court had declared illegal. Spain’s Interior Ministry
and the Spanish police union said the withdrawal should be completed by Saturday. Read more:
Opinion: After Catalan elections, it’s back to the drawing board Madrid deployed thousands of
additional officers from Spain’s National Police and Guardia Civil to Catalonia in September, just as the
northeastern region was preparing to vote in a contested independence referendum. The vote on
October 1 was subsequently marred by scenes of violence , as police used batons and rubber bullet to
try and force voters away from the polling booths. At least 92 people were injured in the clashes, while
Catalan authorities claimed at the time that as many as 900 people needed hospital and medical
attention on the day of the vote. Although Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s government never
placed an exact figure on the number of additional officers sent to Catalonia, most media estimated it to
be between 4,000 and 6,000. However, Spain’s top-selling daily, El Pais, put the figure at around 10,000.
The crackdown prompted Catalan separatists to dub the Spanish police reinforcements as an “occupying
force.” Catalonia still rising separatist wave Despite the numbers of police and their often brutal
interventions, the referendum still saw millions of Catalonians cast their ballot, giving the separatist vote
a substantial majority. The vote, however, led Rajoy to sack Catalan President Carles Puigdemont,
dissolve the Barcelona-based government and impose direct rule from Madrid. The prime minister also
called for early elections, which took place last week. The separatist parties once again maintained their
majority and are expected to form a new government.
A2: Fiat Immediate Secession
1. My opponent’s concede that the pro’s advocacy is immediate secession. This is
really bad as BBC news explains Catalonia does not possess the internal
infrastructure to create a government right now. Reuters contextualizes that it
would take months for a new, capable government to emerge.
2. Bloomberg News writes in 2017 that the creation of a new government in
Catalonia will result in a power struggle over who will lead the new country.
That’s why he concludes political based violence may erupt within the first few
weeks after secession.
BBC, 9-29, 17, Catalonia crisis: Spain PM Rajoy sets timeline for a new parliament,
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-42515922
Mariano Rajoy's announcement comes a week after Catalonia's separatist parties won back a majority in
a divisive snap election. He called the vote in a bid to quash a bid for independence by the region's
leaders and end the political crisis. Analysts say it could take months for a new Catalan government to
be formed. "I hope that as soon as possible we will be able to have a Catalan government that is open to
dialogue and able to relate to all Catalans, not just half of them," Mr Rajoy said in an end-of-year
address to the nation on Friday. He reiterated that a vote to select a new Catalan president must take
place within 10 days of the new regional parliament convening. 'Absurd' Mr Puigdemont is currently in
self-imposed exile in Belgium, as he faces arrest in Spain over his role in Catalonia's unilateral
declaration of independence. Another separatist leader, Oriol Junqueras, is in prison in Madrid. Image
copyright Reuters Image caption Carles Puigdemont is calling for talks with the Spanish leadership
Following the independence declaration in November, Mr Rajoy sacked Catalonia's government,
dissolved its parliament and stripped the region of its autonomy. In his speech on Friday Mr Rajoy
dismissed the idea that Mr Puigdemont, may try to lead a new government from abroad as "absurd".
Following the independence declaration in November, Mr Rajoy sacked Catalonia's government,
dissolved its parliament and stripped the region of its autonomy. In his speech on Friday Mr Rajoy
dismissed the idea that Mr Puigdemont, may try to lead a new government from abroad as "absurd".
Mariano Rajoy may have fixed the date for the region's newly elected parliament of Catalonia to
convene, but he cannot create a workable majority in the chamber for any candidate of his liking. Direct
rule under Article 155 of Spain's constitution will cease automatically once a new president of Catalonia
takes office. But with pro-unity parties falling short of a majority and pro-independence ranks riddled
with gaps - eight MPs are either in Belgium or in Spanish jails - there is no clear way ahead. Mr Rajoy is
playing his standard straight bat based on the rule of law while refusing to negotiate any alternative
with ousted Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont.
Charles Plenty, 12-27, 17, Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-27/spain-

urges-pro-unity-party-to-thwart-separatists-in-catalonia
“There is an alternative and we have to put it to work because anything can happen in Catalonia,”
Fernando Martinez Maillo, general coordinator of the People’s Party, said in a Tweet on Wednesday.
“After winning the elections, the logical step would be to try to form a government.” While
Ciudadanos officials played down the idea because they don’t have the popular support to challenge the
separatist majority, the clock is ticking for the Catalans after a vote that laid bare the divisions in the
region and did little to put the issue of self-determination to rest following a tumultuous two months.
The regional president must be chosen by Feb. 8. Ousted Leaders There’s much that needs to be
resolved before the separatists can turn their election victory into a working administration, not least
who would lead it. Carles Puigdemont, the regional president who was ousted by Spain after he led a
unilateral declaration of independence in October, remains in Brussels. He faces arrest if he returns to
Spain and said he would come back to be sworn in again only if the “right guarantees” are offered. Then
there’s Oriol Junqueras, his former vice-president and stalwart of the independence push. He’s being
held in jail awaiting trial as a judge ascertains whether he and other pro-independence campaigners
participated in a rebellion against Spain. It’s still unclear how either man could be named president if
they can’t turn up in person for an investiture vote, said Argelia Queralt, professor of constitutional law
at Barcelona University. Any decision to let them attend would be in the hands of the Supreme Court
judge, she said. “There’s a tussle for power going on here,” she said. Electoral Math Rajoy called the
election in Catalonia after dismissing Puigdemont and his government and dissolving the regional
parliament. The vote yielded 70 seats for the three parties that back independence, enough to give
them a majority in the 135-seat chamber. Anti-separatists used a Twitter campaign to highlight the
divisions in the region with a parody independence push for “Tabarnia,” a hypothetical territory
comprising parts of the provinces of Barcelona and Tarragona that favor staying in Spain. Read More:
What Can the Separatists Do With Their Election Win? More officials from Rajoy’s party lined up to urge
Ines Arrimadas, the leader of Ciudadanos in Catalonia, to take on the separatists. There are other ways
they can influence the outcome of events, perhaps by pushing for a pro-Spain candidate to be speaker
of the parliament, Javier Maroto, the PP’s vice-secretary for social policy, told Onda Cero radio. “No one
is asking Arrimadas to throw herself from the balcony politically speaking,” he said. “But it’s not enough
to look at the electoral result and say there’s no majority.” Miguel Gutierrez, Ciudadanos’s general
secretary in parliament, said the pro-Spain bloc didn’t have enough seats for a majority in the regional
assembly. The People’s Party, which saw its vote decimated, has no authority to tell his party what to
do, he said. “It looks like it left its calculator at home,” he told Onda Cero. “The question is what the
separatists do because they have a majority. Let’s see if they can use it to govern.”
Reuters, 12-29, 17, Spanish PM Calls for Catalan Parliament to be formed January 17,
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-spain-politics-rajoy/spanish-pm-calls-for-catalan-parliament-to-be-
formed-on-jan-17-idUSKBN1EN13A
MADRID (Reuters) - Spain’s prime minister said on Friday that the new Catalan parliament should hold
its maiden session on Jan. 17, the first step in reinstating local government after Madrid fired the old
regional administration for illegally declaring independence. Once the parliament is formed, potential
leaders of the regional government will put themselves forward for a vote of confidence, although it
could take months for a new government to emerge. “I hope that as soon as possible we will be able to
have a Catalan government that is open to dialogue and able to relate to all Catalans, not just half of
them,” Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said in an end-of-year address to the nation.
A2: UN Accession
1. Carrera of World Affairs explains that for Catalonia to be admitted to the UN
Security Council it will need votes from two-thirds of the General Assembly’s
193 members. He concludes that when looking at Catalonia’s international
stance it is unlikely this can be achieved.
Carrera, Xavier Vilà. “THE DOMAIN OF SPAIN: How Likely Is Catalan Independence?”
World Affairs vol. 176 no. 5. Jan/Feb 2014. Web.
“What about the United Nations? Even if the Security Council recommended membership,
Catalonia would still need the votes of two-thirds of the General Assembly’s one hundred and
ninety-three countries to become a member. Both outcomes seem unlikely,” (83).
A2: Kosovo Example
1. The European Council on Foreign Relations explains that in Kosovo there was
ethnic cleansing, systematic discrimination, and mass outflows of refugees. The
international community heavily criticized Serbia’s actions; however, Spain has
not been condemned for its treatment of Catalonia.
Borja, Francisco. [Policy fellow at The ECFR]. “Three myths about Catalonia’s independence
movement” European Council on Foreign Relations. September 2017.
The precedent of Kosovo has also been spearheaded by the Catalan government to buttress their
claims of persecution. Thankfully for both Catalonia (a rich region) and the rest of Spain, the
comparison with Milosevic’s Serbia and Yugoslavia in general does not hold: there has been no
violent campaign of ethnic cleansing, no systematic discrimination leading to mass outflows of
refugees, and not one previous international condemnation of Spain’s treatment of its Catalans.
F2: Loss of Tourism BC of Violence
1. Even if this is true there is still a loss of tourism in the pro world. Skaremo of
Umea University finds in his empirical analysis that the creation of a new
border decreases the amount of tourism into that country by 54%. (If we’re
arguing EU inclusion) Even in EU countries, which follow the Schengen “open
borders” agreement, the creation of a new border decreases tourism by 37%.
[Skaremo Umea University]
F2: Spain Allows Catalonia into EU in Pro World
1. The biggest problem with my opponent’s argument is timeframe. They’d like
you to think that if Catalonia were independent it would instantly become an
EU member. However, Reuters reports that it would take at least 2 and up to 10
years for Catalonia be admitted. That’s really important because on face if you
vote pro you are creating a long period of economic and political uncertainty.
“Independent Catalonia would need to apply to join EU: Juncker” SEPTEMBER 14, 2017
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-spain-politics-eu/independent-catalonia-would-need-to-apply-to-
join-eu-juncker-idUSKCN1BP210
Catalonia’s parliament has laid the ground for a referendum on independence from Madrid on Oct. 1,
although Spain’s Constitutional Court has suspended the vote. Judges are now considering whether the
legislation contravenes Spain’s constitution. “If there were to be a ‘yes’ vote in favor of Catalan
independence, then we will respect that opinion. But Catalonia will not be able to be an EU member
state on the day after such a vote,” Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker said on YouTube and
broadcast by Euronews. Echoing a stance made by his predecessor, Jose Manuel Barroso, Juncker said
any newly independent state must follow the same EU membership procedures as all aspirants, citing
Scotland and, in jest, his home country, Luxembourg. “If northern Luxembourg were to cede from the
south, the same rules would apply,” Juncker said. The EU’s accession negotiations are an arduous
process that involve complying with all EU standards and rules and winning the consent of all EU
governments. This means that Spain would be able to block Catalonia’s EU accession if it wished. Croatia
was the last country to join the EU, in 2013 after first applying for membership in 2003.
Phedon Nicolaides and Sylvia Raja Boean "The Process of Enlargement of the European Union,"
Maastricht University, http://aei.pitt.edu/776/1/2.htm
With the exception of the entry of the three former EFTA countries, experience suggests that accession
negotiations are a protracted affair. The more derogations and qualifications of the acquis that are
requested by the applicant countries, the more difficult and the more lengthy the negotiations are likely to
be. Nonetheless, derogations/qualifications have been granted in the past and, therefore, are likely to be
granted in the future. The applicant countries, however, have to exercise judgement and restraint if they
aspire to a quick entry into the EU. If the negotiations with Cyprus and Malta6 and some CEEC begin,
say, in Spring 1998, they may easily last until after the year 2000. If the ratification process takes another
year or two the earliest that their accession could be achieved would be around 2002. But by 2000 other
CEEC will probably be ready to enter into negotiations with the EU. At that point the EU will face the
dilemma of whether to ratify the agreements with only a handful of the applicant countries or delay the
admission process until more countries are ready, so that they can all go in as a group. The EU has
already declared that each applicant will be treated on its own merits but this does not ncessarily mean
that each applicant will accede as soon as it has satisfied the preconditions, since considerations such as
group accessions will also be taken into account. The more members the EU acquires, the more
cumbersome and time-consuming the process of negotiation of the terms of accession and of ratification
of those terms for each new member.
F2: “Grant” = Peaceful
A2: EU Entry
1. Realize Spain isn’t the only country that doesn’t want Catalonia to be
independent. US News explains that Italy, France, Germany, Belgium, and the
UK oppose Catalan independence. That’s really important because these
countries would still block Catalonia regardless of whether it’s peaceful/agreed
or not.
Alfonso Valero, principal lecturer for the College of Business Law & Social Sciences in Nottingham Law
School at Nottingham Trent University, US News & World Report, October 4, 2017, Why the EU should
back Spain against Catalonia, https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2017-10-04/why-
the-eu-should-back-spain-against-catalonia-independence
The position of the EU and the European leaders on Catalonian independence has been one of self-
preservation. Separatism exists in France, Italy, Germany, Belgium and the U.K. – none of which want to
encourage divisions at home by supporting the Catalonian separatist cause. According to this
hypothesis, if the EU encouraged Catalonia to separate from Spain, whether because it was
guaranteed EU membership or because the EU leaders intervened in favor of the separatist goals,
Spain could reciprocate if separatism flared up elsewhere in the EU.
A2: Secessionist Movements
1. Recognize that in the long run, the Pro side still disrupts peace. Even IF
Catalonia encourages other separatist movements not to be openly violence,
their movements increase instability. Preece of Purdue University finds that
minority efforts to secede under the doctrine of self-determination lead to civil
strife, regional instability, and large influxes of refugees because regional
governments can’t provide for their citizens
F2: Affirming Solves Uncertainty
1. Hunt of the UK Express reports that independence would not solve investor
uncertainty, in part because the independence movement was unilateral
instead of through legal means.
2. Bloomberg News writes this morning that uncertainty is no longer an issue.
Because of the national government’s hardline stance against Catalan
independence investors have regained confidence in Spain’s economy.
Specifically, Spain’s national debt rating has increased meaning more investors
are likely to come in the next few days.
Catalonia
XTB analyst Joaquín Robles said: “We are perhaps facing the worst scenario for the interests of Spanish
investors, since it is most likely that the pro-independence group will return to rule.” He added that
the search for independence through the legal channels, instead of unilaterally, would “reassure”
investors. Moody’s believed the electoral result illustrated “the persistent” polarisation of the Catalans
and it is “negative” for the economic growth of Spain.
Catalonia
Likewise, the US firm believes that the approach to the independence procedures will “further weaken
the already weak finances of the region”, since the electoral programmes of the pro-independence
parties lack fiscal consolidation measures and the focus of their political agenda is the road map towards
independence.
Maria Tadeo 18, 1-19-2018, "Spain Yield Spread Narrows to Lowest Since 2010 Before Fitch,"
Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-19/spain-yield-spread-narrows-to-
lowest-since-2010-before-fitch
Spanish bonds led a rally among peripheral euro-area securities on speculation the nation’s debt
rating could be upgraded on Friday. The extra yield that investors demand to hold the nation’s
10-year notes over comparable German debt narrowed to the least since before the euro crisis
engulfed the region. Spain is rated BBB+ at Fitch Ratings, and a one-notch improvement would
take the kingdom to A territory. “It’s very likely that we could see rating increase on Friday,” said
Jaime Costero, a fixed-income strategist at Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA in Madrid. “The
economic fundamentals look good and uncertainty is less likely to weigh on the decision now
than it did last year.” The yield on Spain’s 10-year bonds fell four basis points to 1.46 percent as
of 11:40 a.m. in Madrid. The yield premium over comparable German bunds narrowed four
basis points to 88 basis points, the least since April 2010. While political tensions flared again in
the Catalonia region this week, investors seemed to consider it as noise, taking some respite in
Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s tough stance on the region’s rebellion. While separatists control
key positions in the Catalan parliament that could facilitate their agenda, they have been warned
by the central government that the chamber may be suspended again if it tries to sidestep
constitutional orders.
F2: Use Euro Without EU
1. Economist Ilija Andrevski explains that if Catalonia adopts the euro without
being part of the EU there are two problems:
a. First, Catalonia will not have any say in monetary, interest rate, or
exchange rate policy of the euro since they wouldn’t be part of the EU.
That means Catalonia cannot depreciate the value of the euro to
stimulate exports and imports which is essential for young economies.
b. Second and more importantly, the risk of recession and depression
increases. If an EU member’s central bank collapses then the European
Central Bank will bail them out. If Catalonia adopts the euro unilaterally
they have no safe way to counter a depression or recession on their own.
Economist Ilija Andrevski. July 30, 2017. https://www.quora.com/How-can-Montenegro-and-Kosovo-

use-the-Euro
It can get the euros through exports, donations, transfers, whatever, there is also no
such thing as “illegal” adoption of the euro. Any country can adopt currency of any other
country if it considers it beneficial. Main disadvantages of such a move is that
Montenegro or Kosovo* won’t have a say in monetary or exchange rate policy of euro(as
they are not part of the EU). They can’t depreciate in order to stimulate exports for
example. Other important disadvantage is that domestic CBs of such countries lose the
ability to act as a lender of last resort. In other words, if large EU bank collapses ECB
can bail them out, if the same happens in Montenegro, ECB won’t give a damn as they
are not responsible for their banking system.
A2: US Interests
1. Foreign Policy Magazine explains that historically the US has taken a stance of
neutrality on issues of secession. The Washington Post contextualizes that this
is true even now. President Trump opposes Catalan independence and has even
called the movement foolish for trying to destroy Spanish unity.
Runde, Daniel. “The Case Against Catalan Independence.” Foreign Policy. 18 Sept 2015. Web.
http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/09/18/the-case-against-catalan-independence-spain/.
Unofficially, the secession of Catalonia is clearly not in the US interest, just as a split of Scotland
from the UK is not in the US interest. When push came to shove, President Obama made a
statement in the run up to the Scottish election signaling that America hoped Scotland would
remain in the United Kingdom.” This quote sets a precedent. President Obama’s statement states,
“We obviously have a deep interest in making sure that one of the closest allies that we will ever
have remains strong, robust, united, and an effective partner. But ultimately these are decisions
that are to be made by the folks there.” This quote can be found here. This quote can help combat
an opponent who tries to claim a value to U.S. interest as well as a counterpoint to the often-run
idea that as a foundation of democracy, U.S. democratic values also apply to Catalonia.
Gearan, Anne. “Trump says U.S. opposes independence bid in Spain’s Catalonia region.”
Washington Post. 26 Sept 2017. Web. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/postpolitics/
wp/2017/09/26/trump-says-u-s-opposes-independence-bid-in-spains-cataloniaregion/?
utm_term=.f00f2fa64302.
“President Trump said Tuesday that the United States opposes an independence drive in the
Spanish region of Catalonia, telling reporters that such secession would be ‘foolish.’ ‘I think
Spain is a great country, and it should remain united,’ Trump said during a news conference with
the visiting Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy.”
F2: Independence doesn’t Spread
1. Quantitatively, Cunningham of the University of Maryland finds that secession
movements have a 7-fold multiplier of the likelihood that other secession
movements will advance, given they already exist. It also causes a 25% increase
in the likelihood of a new movement being formed
“Is self-determination contagious? A spatial analysis of the spread of self-determination claims” August
12, 2016 Kathleen Gallagher Cunningham* University of Maryland and Peach Research Institute Oslo
The effect of a movement in the number of onsets in the neighborhood in the previous year from no
neighboring claims, zero, to even one onset in the neighborhood, leads to over a 47% increase in the
probability that the country experiences a new claim in the year. The probability of a new onset
increases exponentially with more neighboring claims: a change from no neighboring claims in the last
year to the median number of neighboring claims, four, increases the probabilit y that a given country
makes a new claim in that year by more than 350%. 60 The positive effect of the size of a country
(natural log of the geographic area measured in kilometers squared) is quite large. Moving from the first
quartile (a country about the size of Costa Rica) to the third quartile (about the size of Afghanistan)
about doubles the probability of an onset in a year. Moving from no active self-determination groups in
the country to one active claim-making group in the country leads to about a 25% increase in the
chance of a new onset of self-determination claims in a country in a year. 61 These results
demonstrate that in addition to structural and domestic factors, the onset of claims over self-
determination in the neighborhood greatly increase the chance of a country facing the emergence of
claims in their own territory.
0-50%= 50%
350/50= 7x
Indicts
Cedermann, Switzerland U (Secession decreases Conflict)
There are two really big problems with this study
1. His study has to do with granting autonomy, not independence
2. Cedermann literally says in his conclusion that it isn’t possible to determine
whether more autonomy directly causes a change in conflict. In fact, he finds
that autonomy granted to secessionist movements doesn’t actually reduce
conflict. They’re just taking numbers and making their own conclusions.
THEIR AUTHOR
For the central question whether autonomy and secession actually pacify or deteriorate relations
between government and rebels, our analysis does not yet produce definitive results due to data
limitations. A simple descriptive analysis of our full sample of observations suggests that granting
autonomy to a group demanding such an arrangement is associated with a much lower conflict risk.
Autonomy offered to a secessionist movement, however, does not appear to reduce the risk of civil war.
These limitations of our analysis suggest a first step to improve our study. We are currently unable to
assess in full the consequences of autonomy arrangements and secession because our dataset contains
few cases with complete information on all our independent variables for outcomes attained after
autonomy concessions. In part this also has to do with the fact that our dataset on campaigns for
autonomy and secession codes such campaigns according to quite demanding criteria.25 Thus
expanding our data along these lines will allow us to generate much more precise estimates and cover
all decision nodes of our game tree more completely.

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SBS News. October 8, 2017. <https://www.sbs.com.au/news/could-an-independent-catalonia-stay-in-

reported injuries to the authorities

an enormous arsenal of weapons, which are all in

Aljazeera, “Spain's media spin on Catalonia,” 10/10/17,

violating such orders by setting up mirrors, reverse proxies, or

a healthy democracy depends on

governments may use the

“Can Spain's economy survive a Catalan secession?” 30 Sept 2017

World tourism rose an astounding 7% in 2017 according to a UN study, despite terrorism,

2. Luis de Guindos has a history of lying, as in a testimony to the European Parliament he

When Catalonia in northeastern Spain held an independence referendum on October

[Express Magazine Rajoy Popularity]

Bingham 12 (Grad Student at King’s College in London) http://www.e-ir.info/2012/06/19/how-

Heath, Ryan. “The race for EU membership.” politico.eu, Politico, 12/15/16,

Consequently, disinvestment by businesses headquartered in the region is another concern. Since

“Spanish government begins withdrawal of thousands of police from Catalonia” 27.12.2017

Mike Conrad, 12-28 17, Befuddlement in Catalonia, American Thinker,

Dan Hancox, Foreign Policy, 12/16/2015, Nobody Likes Mariano Rajoy

“Can Catalonia Achieve Independence Through a Unilateral Declaration of Independence Under

the right to self-determination, if viewed narrowly as the right to secede,

4. Furthermore, affirming would destroy Catalonia’s economy and do serious

1. The independence movement is dying. BMI Research explains that inevitable

BMI Research, January 1, 2018, Spain Country Risk Report

Secessionist parties are split

The “popular” majority is not a real one – it is engineered

Mike Conrad, 12-28 17, Befuddlement in Catalonia, American Thinker,

Spain pulling police from Catalonia – their evidence is old

Charles Plenty, 12-27, 17, Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-27/spain-

Economist Ilija Andrevski. July 30, 2017. https://www.quora.com/How-can-Montenegro-and-Kosovo-

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