Predictive Analysis of Agency Sales Units basis RAG Rating

Members: ArunKumaar, Dhanya, Loganathan, Suchithra, Thangadurai Sekar

Interpretation of project
a. There are five different datasets that is being provided
b. The units of agency channel have been analyzed and classified into Red, Amber, Green based on the
performance of last six months
c. This classification helps the business to identify the performance in particular region, units requiring
attention and key focus area.

Problem Statement
Business would like to know the units that may go into RED in future. Predicting so will help take proactive
measures on units to avoid loss to business.
RAG Rating field is the dependent variables in the data.

Building the model

1. Perform exploratory analysis on all the five datasets. Perform imputation to fix the null values if present.

2. Join all the five datasets into one, and then perform exploratory data analysis to get inferences from the
attributes in the data.

3. Split the data into train and test datasets

4. Check the important attributes and perform dimensionality reduction if required.

5. Create dummy variables if any categorical data present among the independent variables.

6. If extreme values are present in any of the attributes scale them accordingly.

7. Using time forecast model, check if there is any trend or seasonality in the data.

8. Using the train data, forecast the performance of the units. Compare this output with the test data to
check the accuracy.

9. Use the forecasted data as an input for the multinomial logistic regression and build the model

10. Will be using classification algorithms like discriminant analysis as well to build the model.

11. Predicting the test data using the built model and calculate the performance measure of the model.
 12. For better prediction build a neural network on the training data and then predict the test data using the
built model.

13. Calculate the performance measure of the neural network model, compare the accuracy of all the
models to check which is giving a better accuracy.

14. Create a profile using all the above predictions which will help in targeting the best Units that are marked
as RED, taking necessary actions only on these units will help reduce the loss to the business.

Pictorial Representation of Model Building Flow

Data •Analyze all the five datasets

Imputation •Fixing null values if present

•Combine all the five datasets

Combining Data •Perform exploratory data analysis
•Split the data into train and test dataset

•Perform dimensionality reduction using PCA (if required)

Attribute
Analysis •Create dummy variables for the categorical data
•Perform scaling if extreme values are present

•Check for any seasonality or trend in the data

Time Series
•Forecast the data to see how the units perform in future
Forecase
•Pass the forecasted data as input in the next models

•Use classification algorithms like Multinomail Logistic Regression and Discriminant

Anaylsis on the train data
Model building •For better prediction use Neural networks
•Measure the accuracy of the model

•Using the above model predict the outputs of the test data
Model
Pereformance •Measure the accuracy of the output using various performance measures
•Compare the accuracy of each model to see which is performing better

•From the outputs of the above model, create a profile of the units
Profile building •Target the best units that are marked as Red
•Provide suggestion to take necessary actions on these units to avoid loss to the business

SUGGESTIONS THAT CAN BE GIVEN TO BUSINESS AFTER ANALYSIS

1. Using the timeseries forecast will be able to predict how the units will perform in future
2. Will be able to predict which region will perform better
3. Will be able to know at which time in a year the units will perform poor and take necessary measures on them
4. Checking the number of early death claims in a year and the attributes associated with it can help in early fraud
detection
5. Finding ways to maintain or increase the persistency ratio.
6. Sentimental analysis on the complaints given by the user can help improve user satisfaction.