Bank Erosion and Movement of River

Channel: A Study of Padma and

Jamuna Rivers in Bangladesh Using
Remote Sensing and GIS

Md. Tariqul Islam

Master’s of Science Thesis in Geoinformatics

TRITA-GIT EX 09-020

Division of Geoinformatics
Royal Institute of Technology (KTH)
100 44 Stockholm, Sweden

December 2009
 TRITA-GIT EX 09-020
ISSN 1653-5227
ISRN KTH/GIT/EX—09/020-SE
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

First of All I am thankful to Almighty Allah who bestowed His blessings not only for this
dissertation but for all my life.

I will not be exaggerating if I will say that this thesis could never be completed without one
person. I gratefully acknowledge Dr. Hans Hauska, Docent, Division of Geoinformatics,
School of Urban Planning and Environment, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm,
Sweden for his supervision, guidance, instruction and encouragement for completion this
research. He was not only a supervisor but also a guardian, a friend, a colleague who shared
his experience and knowledge. I feel very happy and proud to work with him.

I would like to express my special thanks to Prof. Dr. Yifang Ban, Head of the Division of
Geoinformatics, School of Urban Planning and Environment, Royal Institute of Technology,
Stockholm, Sweden. Her constructive criticism has a major part in the completion of this
research.

I am grateful to Qian Zhang, PhD Student, Division of Geoinformatics, School of Urban

Planning and Environment, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden for her
comments about RS and GIS works of this thesis. I am very much indebted to Karoliina
Kolehmainen, Research Assistant, Division of Geoinformatics, School of Urban Planning
and Environment, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden for her helping during
lab work using PCI Geomatics of this research.

Last but not least I am grateful to Global Land Cover Facility, Institute for Advanced
Computer Studies, 3166 A.V. Williams Building, College Park, Maryland 20742, USA for
available free of charge satellite images. The research entirely depended on the satellite data.

Md. Tariqul Islam

Stockholm, Sweden
December, 2009

III
ABSTRACT

Bangladesh is a riverine, flood prone country. Erosion and deposition of river banks by water
flow and flood are natural phenomena which cause channel movement. Remote sensing and
geographic information systems provide tools for quantitative and qualitative land cover
change and river channel monitoring. The main objective of this study is to estimate the
eroded and deposited banks of the Padma and the Jamuna, two of the three main rivers in
Bangladesh and to visualize the movement of their channels.

Three scenes of Landsat images were acquired over the study area - February 2nd 1977
(MSS), November 11th 1989 (TM) and November 17th 2000 (ETM+). The Landsat images
were processed using PCI Geomatica. ArcGIS 9.2 was used for quantification of eroded and
deposited river banks. There were two parts of this study, detecting the changes of the
riverbanks and quantification of erosion and deposition of the riverbanks. Image differencing
and post classification comparison were applied for change detection. Seven classes were
decided for supervised classification of images. For each class, 200 pixels outside of the
training areas were selected for testing the accuracy. Overall accuracies of 85.64%, 89.14%
and 90.07% were achieved from 1977 (MSS), 1989 (TM) and 2000 (ETM+) respectively.
ArcGIS 9.2 was used to transfer the classified images into GIS layers for quantification. The
boundary of the river area in 1977, 1989 and 2000 was digitized through visual interpretation
of converted layers of the classified images from 1977, 1989 and 2000 respectively. The
converted layers were superimposed and clipped based on the digitized river boundary layers
in 1977, 1989 and 2000 respectively. The clipped layers in 1977, 1989 and 2000 indicate the
river area in 1977, 1989 and 2000 correspondingly. Eroded and deposited areas of the Padma
and the Jamuna between the years were calculated by superimposition and pair-wise
comparison of river layers in 1977-89 and 1989-2000. From 1977 to 1989 and 1989 to 2000,
estimated average erosions were 5436 and 2954 hectares/year and depositions were 773 and
1954 hectares/year correspondingly. In 1977, 1989 and 2000, the estimated river area in the
study area was 2789, 3348 and 3458 sq km. During this period, there was more erosion than
deposition which indicates that the rivers are getting wider. River channels are moved by
erosion and deposition following their direction. The general trend of channel movement of
the Padma is towards the south. There is no recognizable trend observed for the Jamuna.

IV
LIST OF CONTENT

Title Page no.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT III
ABSTRACT IV
LIST OF CONTENT V
LIST OF TABLES VII
LIST OF FIGURES VIII
GLOSSARY OF THE ACRONYMS X

1 Introduction

1.1 Background of the Study 1

1.2 Goals and Objectives of the Study 2
1.3 Organization of the Study 2

2 RS and GIS in Environmental Analysis 3

3 Study Area and Data Description

3.1 Study Area 6

3.2 Over View of the Data Sets 7

4 Methodology

4.1 Image Preprocessing 9

4.1.1 Image to Image Registration 9
4.1.2 Data Subset 9
4.1.3 Radiometric Normalization 9
4.2 Change Detection 12
4.2.1 Image differencing 12
4.2.2 Post Classification Comparison 13
Classification Scheme 13
Image Classification 14
Training Area Selection 15
Maximum Likelihood Classification Algorithm 15

V
 Accuracy Assessment 15
4.3 Quantification of Erosion and Deposition 16
4.4 Movement of Channels 17

5 Result and Discussion

5.1 Subset of the Area 18

5.2 Radiometric Normalization 18
5.3 Change Detection 21
5.3.1 Image Differencing 21
5.3.2 Post Classification Comparison 25
Image Classification 25
Comparison 30
5.4 Quantification of Erosion and Deposition 41
5.5 River Channel Movement 50

6 Conclusion and Further Research 53

References 55

VI
LIST OF TABLES

Table Title Page

1 Detail of the used data sets 8

2 The properties of original images of Landsat 8
3 Spectral responses of information classes 14
4 Correlation coefficient of regression analysis 18
5 Accuracy of change detection by image differencing 21
Major land covers are derived from image classification in different
6 25
period
Confusion matrix resulting in percent from test set pixels for subset of
7 29
the study area in 1977 (MSS)
Confusion matrix resulting in percent from test set pixels for subset of
8 29
the study area in 1989 (TM)
Confusion matrix resulting in percent from test set pixels for subset of
9 30
the study area in 2000 (ETM+)
10 Transition matrix (% of land covers in 1989 in areal) 31
11 Transition matrix (% of land covers since 2000 in areal) 32
12 Change detection accuracy by PCC 32
13 Share of eroded land covers from 1977 to 2000 (in hectares) 41
14 Share of deposited land covers from 1977 and 2000 (in hectares) 44
15 Flood level of the Padma and the Jamuna 49
16 Maximum and bank full discharge in the Padma and the Jamuna 49
17 Changes of channel of the Padma and the Jamuna 50

VII
LIST OF FIGURES

Figure Title Page

1 Location of Padma (Gonges) and Jamuna in world context 6

2 Study area 7
3 Pseudo invariant feature between MSS (1977) and TM (1989) images 10
4 Pseudo invariant feature between TM (1989) and ETM+ (2000) images 11
5 Scatter plot of ETM+ band 4 and TM band 4 11
6 A mask of settlement area in 1989 (TM) 13
7 Typical sections and floodplain in a reach of stream valley 16
8 Study area; Left: ETM+ image in 2000, Right: Subset of the study area 18
9 Original and normalized image of near infrared band of MSS 19
10 Original and normalized image of near infrared band of TM 20
11 Changes from 1977 to 1989 22
12 Changes from 1989 to 2000 23
Comparison of change map of section of the Padma by image differencing
13 24
method
14 Classified images 1977 (MSS) 26
15 Classified images 1989 (TM) 27
16 Classified images 2000 (ETM+) 28
17 Areal comparison of land covers in different years 30
18 Changes from 1977 to 1989 by PCC 33
19 Changes from 1989 to 2000 by PCC 34
20 Confluence point of the Padma and the Jamuna 36
21 Change image of confluence point from 1977 to 1989 37
22 Section of the Padma 38
23 Change image of section of the Padma from 1989 to 2000 49
24 Post classification comparison of some selected location 40
25 Share of eroded land covers from 1977 to 1989 42
26 Share of eroded land covers from 1989 to 2000 43

VIII
Figure Title Page

27 Share of deposited land covers from 1989 to 2000 45

28 Location of erosion from 1977 to 2000 46
29 Location of deposition from 1977 to 2000 47
30 Average erosion and deposition between 1977-89 and 1989-200 48
31 Flooded area for each year 48
32 Movement of River Channels since 1977 to 2000 51
Section of the Padma (top) and point of the confluence of the Padma and
33 52
the Jamuna (down)

IX
GLOSSARY OF ACRONYMS

ASTER Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer

DN Digital Number
ERS European Remote Sensing
ESRI Environmental System Research Institute
ETM Enhanced Thematic Mapper
FCC False Color Composition
GIS Geographic Information System
GLCF Global Land Cover Facility
GPS Global Positioning System
IFOV Instantaneous Field Of View
IRS Indian Remote Sensing Satellite
LISS Linear Imaging Self-Scanning System
MODIS Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer
MSS Multi Spectral Scanner
NASA National Aeronautical and Space Administration
NDVI Normalized Differentiate Vegetation Index
NDWI Normalized Differentiate Water Index
NIR Near Infrared
PCA Principle Component Analysis
RCA Relative Channel Analysis
RGB Red, Green and Blue
RS Remote Sensing
SAR Synthetic Aperture Radar
SPOT Systeme Pour l'Observation de la Terre
TM Thematic Mapper
USGS United State Geological Survey
UTM Universal Transverse Mercator

X
1 Introduction

1.1 Background
Recent developments in Remote Sensing (RS), Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and
Global Positioning Systems (GPS) facilitate environmental analysis (Anderson, 1996).
Change detection and quantification of erosion and deposition of riverbanks is such a study
that is facilitated by application of RS, GIS and GPS. However, regular collection of spatial
data using GPS and theodolite for river bank erosion and sandbank deposition is very
difficult. The process is time consuming and costly. Remote sensing and GIS are widely used
tools for detection and monitoring of changes of the physical environment (Andrea et al.,
2001; Jensen, 2005; Stabel and Löffler, 2004; Ahmed, 2002; Twumasi and Merem, 2006).

Natural hazards, i.e. floods, river erosion, tsunami, draughts, cyclones, earthquakes, landslide,
heat waves, cold waves, etc., are natural phenomena well known in Bangladesh. Floods and
river erosion are the most frequent occurring natural hazards among them. Bangladesh is a
floodplain country. Flood occurs in the country every year. Statistically, during a regular
flood, about 26,000 km2 (that is 18% of Bangladesh) are flooded. During severe flood, the
flooded area exceeds 55% of the total area of the country (Banglapedia, 2008). Due to floods
and riverbank erosion Bangladesh loses a lot of land every year.

During the monsoon, floods and flows of river water erode the bank of the river. In the winter,
the water level of the river goes down and sandbanks are deposited alongside the riverbanks.
Because of erosion and deposition of riverbanks, the country loses fertile land and gains
sandbanks. These sandbanks look like an extended desert in the winter. Year after year,
erosion, deposition and extension of sandbanks cause channel movement. The rising
sandbanks create problems for river navigation and sandy land management.

Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) reported that there were 140 km of river
banks fully eroded and another 1345 km that were partially eroded by flood in 2007 (IRIN,
2008). 17 km of flood protection embankments were completely eroded and another 48 km
were partly eroded. About 7524 km of rural roads and 1323 bridges and culverts were
damaged by river erosion and floods in 2007. BWDB estimated that flood and river erosion in

1
2007 created more than US$ 75 million damages. BWDB also said that the rate of erosion of
the Padma River was 1400 hectares per year in the early 1970s, it increased to 2,200 hectares
per year in the 1990s. The mean annual erosion of both banks of the Jamuna from the 1970s
to the early 1990s was 3300 hectares (IRIN, 2008). The bank erosion of the Jamuna decreased
slightly ranging from 1000 to 2500 hectares per year in last decade.

Padma and Jamuna are rivers that flow within few meters of height in Bangladesh. They are
two of three important rivers in the context of water navigation, irrigation, fishing, and fresh
water for downstream areas. On the other hand, they erode the riverbank and deposit
sandbanks. The aim of this research is to estimate the eroded riverbanks and deposited
sandbanks from 1977 to 2000 and to identify the gradual changes of the banks of the rivers
through remote sensing and GIS technologies.

1.2 Goals and Objectives of the Study

In general, the goal of this study is to estimate the riverbanks erosion, deposition and to
identify the changes of riverbanks from 1977 to 2000 using GIS and RS. The specific
objectives of this study are as follows:
(I) to estimate the eroded riverbank using Landsat imagery,
(II) to estimate the deposited sandbank, using Landsat imagery and
(III) to identify the changes of riverbank of the Padma and the Jamuna through GIS.

1.3 Organization of the Study

This thesis consists of six sections. Section 1 introduction explains the study background,
goals and objectives and study outline. Section 2 literature review explores the literature of
methodological background concerning remote sensing and GIS. Section 3 study area and
data description that discuss the geographical location of the study area and configuration and
nature of the data that have been used. Section 4 methodology explores the operational
procedure. It describes the tools, methods, modes, modules, and algorithms. Section 5 result
and discussion examine and critically analyze the out put. Section 6 conclusion provides the
concluding remarks and consideration for further research.

2
2 RS and GIS in Environmental Analysis

Remote sensing is a science where the information about an object, area, or phenomenon is
acquired from a distance, without contact with that object, area, or phenomenon. The principle
of remote sensing technology is the formation of images by recording the radiated and/or
reflected electromagnetic radiation from an object, area, or phenomenon at a distance. Spatial
information is extracted from analysis of those images. Often, this information is compiled
and merged with other form of analysis and application is called GIS (Lillesand et al., 2008).

Environmental change detection, analysis and monitoring are the common application of RS
and GIS. Below a number of empirical researches related to this study are reviewed.
Viet et al. (2002) described the process of quantification of riverbank erosion using remotely
sensed images. They used time series satellite images of different sources composed of optic
and radar imagery to detect changes of riverbanks at Tien and Hau branches of the Mekong
River. Images are analyzed in pairs to detect the movement of the banks directly. The results
of the interpretation were transferred to vector format and compared through superimposition
of all vector layers. Erosion of Mekong riverbanks was calculated 4 to 10 km in length, 100
to 1000 meters in width at Tien and 2.5 to 4.5 km in length, 100 to 1000 meters in width at
Hau from 1966 to 1999.
Twumasi and Merem (2006) described land use changes due to massive oil spill and fires in
the Niger delta region of Nigeria using Thematic Mapper (TM) from 1985and Enhanced
Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) from 2000. ERDAS was used to co-register the 1985 image
with the year 2000 image and for image processing. The images were classified applying
unsupervised technique. Then the classified images were transferred into GIS layers using
ArcView GIS. The GIS layers were compared pair-wise to identify changes. Mangrove
forests decreased 33.01% and settlement/bare areas increased 106.16% from 1985 to 2000.
Kelarestaghi et al. (2007) applied rationing, Principle Component Analysis (PCA), tasseled
cap transformation, Normalized Differentiate Vegetation Index (NDVI) and data fusion to
process ETM+ images for land use change detection at Farim drainage basin, Northern Iran.
Supervised and unsupervised classifications were applied. Classified images were
transformed into vector layers. Changes were detected by superimposing transformed vector
layers with a topographic map. From 1966 to 2002, forest area and dry land farming were
decreased 2.99% and 9.2% respectively. Irrigated land areas were increased 1.61%.

3
David (2008) used MSS, TM and ETM images to detect beach erosion at Florida’s coastline,
Volusia County, USA. Images were compared visually and the changes were noted down
using Erdas Imagine 8.7. Then, supervised classification was applied to classify pixels with
similar characteristic. Iterative self organizing data analysis technique (ISODATA) algorithm
of unsupervised classification was applied to classify pixels with mixed characteristics which
were separated by a mask. Changes were detected through image differencing method.
Change matrix was analyzed and calculated. The beach area decreased 5.67 sq miles from
1974 to 1999.
Saroglu et al. (2003) applied unsupervised classification to classify Landsat TM images to
detect costal erosion between 1987 to 2001 at Sile and Agva towns, Turkey. Change of coast
line was detected by overlaying classified images with a digitized topographic map. This
study concludes that in 1987, 1992, 1997 and 2001 forest area was found to be 7516.17,
8110.17, 8429 and 8819.28 hectares respectively. It also concludes that 2387.52 hectares field
areas in 1987 decreased to 600.93 hectares in 2001. They concluded that forest area was
increase and field area was decreased over time.
Ahmed (2002) used Landsat TM imagery to detect changes of the Rosetta shoreline, Nile
delta, Egypt from 1984 to 2000. Image enhancement, geo-referencing, geometric and
radiometric corrections were applied for image processing. Edge enhancement and
classification techniques were applied to detect the changes between eroded and accreted
areas. The result shows that the change of shoreline from 1984 to 2000 was 118.6 meters per
year.
Zoran and Anderson (2006) used Landsat MSS, TM, ETM, SPOT XS, SAR ERS-1, ASTER
and MODIS images to detect land use and shoreline changes of the Black Sea caused by
sedimentation and erosion from 1975 to 2003. PCA and relative channel analysis (RCA) were
applied to process the images. Thematic maps were produced to control the parameters under
consideration. The rate of erosion in the Northern part of Cap Midia was 100 ha/year.
Goel et al. (2002) applied Erdas IMAGINE to process IRS-1C and LISS-III images from nine
different dates to identify and separate the water body from the sediments deposited between
October 1996 and June 1997 in Bargi Reservoir, India. Images were geo-referenced. Each
image was geo-referenced to its subsequent date image. Normalized differentiate water index
(NDWI) algorithm was used to separate the water body from the deposited sedimentation.
NDWI algorithm is (Green - NIR)/(Green + NIR). The resulting sedimentation was 229 m3/
(km2*year).
Laliberte et al. (2001) used aerial photographs and GPS to detect the changes of Catherine
Creek, North Carolina, USA from 1979 to 1998. GPS was used to georeference the aerial

4
photography. Digitization from photographs and conversion from vector to raster were the
techniques to change detection and quantification. In this period, the stream area decreased
from 5.07 ha to 4.93 ha, a 2.76% decrease of the stream area.
Kotoky et al. (2005) quantified erosion and deposition of the Brahmaputra (Indian part of
Jamuna) from 1975-98 using IRS images. They identified 10 positions at an interval of 15
min east and observed 25 locations. The deposition rate at the north bank was higher than at
the south bank. However, the rate of erosion was vice-versa. In this period, the river channel
was migrating towards the south.
Hassan et al. (1999) used Landsat TM and aerial photographs to detect land use change and
erosion at the Atbara River, Sudan, from 1985 to 1990. Based on field visits, all sets of aerial
photographs were analysed using pocket and mirror stereoscopes. A hand held lens
(magnification 5x) was used for visual interpretation of the Landsat TM images. Landsat
images were unified in scale using a Kargl reflecting projector. A curvimeter was used to
measure the changes. The loss of arable land was calculated to 13.4 km2/year and 9.4
km2/year during the period of 1985-1987 and 1987-1990 respectively.

5
3 Study Area and Data Description

3.1 Study Area

Bangladesh is called the country of rivers. There are about 700 rivers in Bangladesh. Padma
and Jamuna are two of three major rivers in Bangladesh (figure 1). The mother river of the
Padma is the Ganges and the origin of the Ganges is the Gangotri. A part of the Ganges,
named Padma, crosses the Bangladeshi border at Manakosa and Dulabhpur unions of
Shibganj thana of Nawabganj district. The Padma is 120 km long and its width varies from 4
to 8 km. The mother river of the Jamuna is the Brahmaputra, originating from the
Chemayung-Dung glacier, at approximately 31°30´N and 82°0´E. A part of the Brahmaputra,
named Jamuna crosses the Bangladeshi border at Kurigram Sadar, Ulipur thana of Kurigram
district. The length of the Jamuna is about 205 km and its width varies from 3 km to 18 km.
The average width is about 10 km. Both rivers, Padma and Jamuna, join together at Goalanda
thana of Rajbari district and then flow as Padma River until it joins the Meghna River at
Chadpur. The rest of the way it flows as Meghna River into the Bay of Bengal. The banks of
the Padma and the Jamuna inside Bangladesh until their confluence are the study areas for this
research (figure 2).

Bangladesh has tropical climate. November to February is considered as dry season. Average
rainfall in this tropical area is about 15 cm to 20 cm per year. The average temperature in the
dry season is 170C to 18.50C. The study area is flooded and delta plain land with pit, silted,
acidic brown and grey soil (Haque et al., 2008).

Figure 1. Location of Padma (Ganges) and Jamuna in world context

6
3.2 Overview of the Data Sets
This study is carried out using Landsat imagery. The spatial resolution of Landsat imagery is
sufficient to identify and monitor the dynamics of river systems such as migration of the
confluence point of rivers, movement of river channels and eroded and deposited riverbanks

India

India

India

Bangladesh

Bay of Bengal

Jamuna

Padma

Figure 2. Study area

7
(Priestnall and Aplin, 2006). All images are from the dry season, because imagery in the dry
season is normally cloud free. Multi-Spectral Scanner (MSS), Thematic Mapper (TM) and
Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) imagery was acquired in 1977, 1989 and 2000
respectively was obtained from the Global Land Cover Facility (GLCF). Figure 2 (bottom)
shows the FCC (False Color Composite) of the ETM+ image used in this study. Channel red,
green and blue are set to band 4, band 3 and band 2 respectively. In this figure, red represents
vegetation, green field and green crops, blue represents water, white represents new deposit,
greenish represents wetland, bluish represent old deposit, ash represents fallow land and so
on. The left long water channel represents the Padma River and the right one represents the
Jamuna River. Banks of these rivers are studied under this research. Table 1 describes the
details about the data used.
Table 1. Details of data sets used
Sensor Id WRS Path Row Acquisition Date
MSS 020-795 1 148 043 1977-02-09
TM 011-636 2 138 043 1989-11-11
ETM+ 039-285 2 138 043 2000-11-17
Source: GLCF, 2004

The Landsat programme and all the images of Landsat are managed by the National
Aeronautical and Space Administration (NASA) and the United States Geological Survey
(USGS). The data used in this study were projected and modified by GLCF. The Universal
Transverse Mercator (UTM) 45 R D000 earth model of UTM projection was applied as a
projection method.
Table 2. The properties of original images of Landsat
Sensor Band Spatial resolution (sq m) Image Size (sq km)
MSS 1-4 57 X 79* 185 X 185
1-5, 7 30 X 30
TM 185 X 172
6 60 X 60
1-5, 7 30 X 30
ETM+ 6 60 X 60 183 X 170
8 15 X 15
Source: NASA, 2008

Table 2 describes the properties of original Landsat images. Original spatial resolution of
MSS images is 57m X 79m but commonly resampled to 57m X 57m (*).

8
4 Methodology

4.1 Image Preprocessing

4.1.1 Image to Image Registration
Satellite images are geometrically distorted because of earth rotation effect, changes in the
instant field of view and altitude, platform tilt and rotation etc. So, it is necessary to
preprocess remotely sensed imagery and remove geometric distortion. Geometric distortion
can be corrected using ground control points (GCP) and appropriate mathematical models
(Jensen, 2005). A GCP is a location on the earth’s surface that can be accurately identified in
the imagery. Image to image registration is a method for geometric correction. This is an
important task in change detection, particularly for image differencing. The Landsat images
used in this study have been downloaded from GLCF. These images were projected and
corrected geometrically by GLCF using the UTM projection method. For this reason,
geometrical correction of images for this study is not needed. Resampling technique is applied
to rescale and adjust the spatial resolution of MSS images to TM and ETM+ images. The
nearest neighbor algorithm is used for resampling technique. This method is simple,
computationally efficient and capable to preserve the original pixel values in the unaltered
scene (Campbell, 2002). The spatial resolution of MSS images was 57m and it is rescaled and
adjusted to the spatial resolution of 28.5m of TM and ETM+.

4.1.2 Data Subset

This study is only interested in riverbanks, deposited sandbanks, riverbank erosion and river
channels. The Padma and the Jamuna join at Rajbari. The area of the Landsat imagery is 185
km × 185 km, i.e. 34225 km2. Approximately 8 to 12 km from both sides of riverbanks are
taken as subset for the study. It makes it easier to compare the riverbanks, deposited
sandbanks, riverbanks erosion and movement of channel.

4.1.3 Radiometric Normalization

In the RS system, sensors measure either reflected or emitted radiation. Reflectance is
influenced by factors like solar angle, atmospheric condition and instrument condition and so
on. To compare multi date imagery, relative radiometric correction is needed (Chen et al.,
2005). This radiometric correction is called radiometric normalization. In this study, a linear
regression method is used for radiometric normalization. Multi date image normalization
requires selecting a base image and then transforming spectral characteristics of all other
images obtained on different dates (Jensen, 2005). Multi date image normalization involves

9
 selection of pseudo invariant features (PIF), often referred to as radiometric ground control
points. The PIFs should be at approximately the same elevation and in a relatively flat area.
The spectral characteristics of a PIF should change very little over time and should contain
minimal amount of vegetation. Bare soil (fallow land), water, roads and runway of an airport
are selected as PIFs for the linear regression analysis in this study (figure 3 and 4). Figure 5
shows the scatter plot of linear regression analysis using a PIF. This analysis is performed two
times. The images in 1977 and 1989 are taken as target relative to the images in 1989 and
2000 respectively.

Bare soil (MSS-1977) Water (MSS-1977) Roads (MSS-1977)

Bare soil (TM-1989) Water (TM-1989) Roads (TM-1989)

Figure 3. Pseudo invariant features on MSS (1977) and TM (1989) images for regression

10
Runway of airport (TM-1989) Water (TM-1989) Roads (TM-1989)

Runway of airport (ETM+ -2000) Water (ETM+ -2000) Roads (ETM+ -2000)
Figure 4. Pseudo invariant features on TM (1989) and ETM+ (2000) images for regression
TM Band 4, 11/ 11/1989

ETM+ Band 4, 17/ 11/2000

Figure 5. Scatter plot of ETM+ band 4 and TM band 4

11
4.2 Change Detection
Change detection is used to detect the variation of the nature and state of an object, area
and/or phenomena in time. Remotely sensed images are frequently used to detect the
difference of nature and state of an object, area and/or phenomena over time (Kolehmainen,
2008). The quality of change detection depends on the acquired images, spatial, spectral,
temporal and radiometric resolution and on the change detection method used (Lu et al.,
2004; Jensen, 2005; Lillesand and Kiefer 2004). Change detection involves the use of multi
date image to identify the change of land covers between two dated images. Several methods
are used to detect the changes. Post classification comparison (PCC) is a commonly used
method to determine from-to changes (Eastman and McKendry, 1991). No single method for
change detection is the best. Image differencing and PCC are common and sidely used
methods for change detection (Jensen, 2004; David, 2008; Eastman and McKendry, 1991).

4.2.1 Image Differencing

Image differencing involves subtracting the imagery of one date from that of another. Multi
date image differencing subtracts DN values from the recent image to the backdated
normalized image. In the area/areas where there is no change, the DN value of the output
image is 0 (zero). By this approach the DN value of the output image can present larger
negative (-255) and positive (255) value in gray scale (Jensen, 2005). Normally, the constant
values (0 to 255) are used for the display purposes. Image differencing involves application of
a mathematical expression pixel by pixel using image algebra. Optimal bands are decided to
represent the areas and changes to be visualised. The image differencing method requires
identical geometric, spatial and radiometric characteristics. The mathematical operation of
image differencing method is express as:
∆BVijk = BVijk(1) – BVijk(2) + c (I)
where, ∆BVijk = change pixel value
BVijk(1) = brightness value on date 1
BVijk(2) = brightness value on date 2
c = a constant
i = line number
j = column number
k = a single band (Jensen, 2005, p. 478).

Change and no-change are then separated by assigning a threshold value. This threshold value
can be determined by visual experiment and /or using a mathematical expression

12
(Kolehmainen, 2008; Liu et al., 2004). In this study, the near infrared band is used to visualize
the changes. This band is selected because of being the best band to discriminate water, new
deposit, old deposit, fallow land and vegetation/agricultural field. The normalized near
infrared band of MSS and TM is subtracted from near infrared band of TM and ETM+
respectively. Changes and no-changes are separated by mathematical expression.

4.2.2 Post Classification Comparison (PCC)

For change detection, PCC depends on the quality of the independent classifications of the
images. Both supervised and unsupervised classification methods are used in PCC. It
produces a transition matrix which describes the changes of classes on a pixel by pixel basis.
A change map of high quality is produced from highly accurate classified maps. However,
any error in an individual classified map will be presented in final change map (Ahmed,
2006). Supervised classification is performed by selecting training areas in this study. A
maximum likelihood classifier (MLC) is applied as supervised image classifier. The
classification scheme is provided in the following paragraphs.

Classification Scheme
This classification scheme is decided based on the region of interest of this study and
modification of UNEP (1993) applied to Bangladesh. Table 3 describes spectral responses of
information classes. Settlement areas in this study area are selected and separated using a
mask (figure 6).

Figure 6. A mask of settlement area in 1989 (TM)

13
 Table 3. Spectral responses of information classes

Information Classes
Images Crops / Old Fallow New
Water Grassland Wetland
Agriculture Deposit Land Deposit
Mean 15.16 16.52 15.76 16.13 26.27 19.83 40.42
MSS1
St. Dev 4.46 1.42 1 0.64 2 1.62 2
Mean 14.14 18.99 16 19.57 33.54 26.52 52.48
In 1977

MSS2
St. Dev 4.41 2 2.23 0.66 2.58 2 2.72
Mean 9.68 27.88 44.58 19.2 34.92 31.27 51.24
MSS3
St. Dev 3 2.91 5.44 1.58 2.78 3 2.96
Mean 35.3 30 32.89 36.9 42.88 42 70
TM2
St. Dev 6.72 1.81 2.45 2.75 1.62 3.15 8.16
Mean 33.9 30.66 30.18 44.13 53.47 57.99 89.94
In 1989

TM3
St. Dev 8.87 4.2 4.45 3.64 2.53 6.12 2.32
Mean 15.48 57.37 92 39.83 46.09 69.18 72
TM4
St. Dev 4.95 5.99 7.72 7.78 1.76 8.89 8.78
Mean 62.35 53.23 56.68 59.72 75.75 70.53 116.65
ETM2
St. Dev 10.6 3.25 2.11 2.68 4.26 5 6.79
Mean 56.28 44 44.25 61.96 81.28 84.81 132.49
In 2000

ETM3
St. Dev 5 4.78 3 5.48 5.21 10 9.59
Mean 28 82.71 126.39 51.97 65.3 94.14 97.66
ETM4
St. Dev 4.8 7.96 7.34 5 4.77 12 7.29

Image Classification
Image classification is usually used for land use/ land cover mapping. Preparation of land
use/land cover mapping is based on statistical pattern recognition techniques applied to
multispectral remote sensed imagery (Jensen, 2005). This technique groups the pixel values
into categorization as information groups. It is a process of assigning spectral classes of pixels
to information classes according to land cover or theme (Campbell, 2002). Supervised
classification is applied in this study.

Supervised classification is a process of using samples of known identities to classify pixels

of unknown identities (Campbell, 2002). Those known samples are commonly referred to as

14
training set. Each pixel is evaluated and assigned to the class to which it has the highest
likelihood of being a member (Jensen, 2005).

Training Area Selection

The selected training area should be representative of land cover /land use classes according
to the classification scheme (Jensen, 2005). It must possible to assign pixels of the training
area to spectral categories in appropriate information classes. The training pixels for each
class should fit the assumption of normal distribution for image classification (Curran, 1985).
The number of pixels needed training varies depending on the study area. Lillesand and
Kiefer (2004) and, Campbell (2002) suggest that the numbers of pixels for the training area
must be at least 100 or more pixels for each category.

Maximum Likelihood Classification Algorithm (MLC)

The MLC decision rule is based on probability. Probability of a pixel belonging to each of a
set of predefined classes is calculated, and then that pixel is assigned to the class with the
highest probability. The MLC assumes that the statistics of the training area for each class is
multivariate normal. MLC is one of the most widely used algorithms for supervised
classification (Jensen, 2005). This classification is performed outside of the urban mask in this
study.

Accuracy Assessment
The classification error can be defined as the assignment of a pixel belonging to one category
to another category. It can be presented as a matrix of equal numbers of columns and rows.
Each row describes the predicted class and each column describes the actual class. Overall
accuracy is calculated by dividing the total number of correctly classified pixels by the total
number of test pixels. The user’s accuracy is calculated by dividing the total number of
correctly classified pixels for each class by the total number of pixels belonging to that
particular class. The producer’s accuracy is calculated by dividing the total number of
correctly classified pixels for each class by the total number of test pixels in that particular
class (Foody, 2002). In this study, 200 pixels for each class other than training pixels are
selected independently for accuracy assessment.

15
4.3 Quantification of Erosion and Deposition
Quantification of eroded and deposited land covers is an important part of this study. It means
the process of estimation eroded and deposited area of the Padma and the Jamuna river banks.
ArcGIS 9.2 is used to transfer the classified images to the GIS layer for quantification.
Boundary of river areas in 1977, 1989 and 2000 are digitized through visual interpretation of
the converted layers of the classified images in 1977, 1989 and 2000 respectively. Every year
floodplain area of the Padma and the Jamuna is defined as river area for this study. Figure 7
shows typical sections and floodplain in a reach of stream valley. ABCD and EFGH in figure
7 indicate river area and river channel area respectively.

Section
H C

D Base of slope
Limit of 100-years flood
Limit of 10-years flood
Limit of every year flood
River channel

E F
A Alluvium

Channel B
Floodplain Floodplain

Floodplain for 100-years flood

Stream valley

Figure 7. Typical sections and floodplain in a reach of stream valley

Then river boundary and converted layers of classified images are superimposed. The
converted layers from classified images in 1977, 1989 and 2000 are clipped based on digitized
river boundary layers in 1977, 1989 and 2000 respectively. The clipped layers in 1977, 1989
and 2000 indicate the river areas in 1977, 1989 and 2000 correspondingly.

16
Eroded and deposited areas of the Padma and the Jamuna between the years are calculated by
superimposition and pairwise comparison of river layers in 1977-89 and 1989-2000. The river
area in 1977 is subtracted from the river area in 1989 and then the converted layer of the
classified image of 1977 is clipped based on this subtracted layer. This clipped layer indicates
the eroded areas from 1977-89. The same process is followed to sort out the eroded areas
from 1989-2000. The attribute tables of these clipped layers are summarized for quantification
the eroded land covers from 1977-89 and 1989-2000.

In case of deposition, the river area in 1989 is subtracted from the river area in 1977 and then
the converted classified image in 1989 is clipped based on this subtracted layer. This clipped
layer indicates the deposited land cover from 1977-89. The same process is also followed to
sort out the deposited land covers from 1989-2000. The attribute tables of these clipped layers
are summarized for calculation of the deposition from 1977-89 and 1989-2000.

4.4 Movement of Channels

Due to erosion and deposition of the banks of the Padma and the Jamuna, the river channels
are changing. To visualize the movement of channels, the river channels are selected using the
attribute tables from the river areas in 1977, 1989 and 2000. The river channels are visualized
and compared with the river area.

17
5 Result and Discussion

5.1 Subset of the Area

The map in figure 8 shows the study area. In this study, analysis, quantification, change
detection and categorized changes analysis were done through use of this subset. It presents
about 8 to 12 km from the banks of the Padma and the Jamuna.

Figure 8. Study area; Left: ETM+ image in 2000, Right: Subset of the study area

5.2 Radiometric Normalization

The image difference method requires radiometric normalization of the imagery. Linear
regression method was applied to 1977 (MSS) and 1989 (TM) imagery. The runway of the
airport, water, new deposit, dry bare soil etc. land covers were taken as PIFs for linear
regression analysis. Imagery in 1977 and 1989 was normalized relative to the imagery in 1989
and 2000 (ETM+) respectively. The correlation coefficients for regression analysis of the near
infrared band were 0.97 (table 4). Figures 9 and 10 show the radiometric normalized and
original images.
Table 4. Correlation coefficient of regression analysis
Equation Correlation coefficient Used images
y = 0.68x – 6.41 R2 = 0.97 x = TM band 4 and y = MSS band 3
y = 0.74x – 2.82 R2 = 0.97 x = ETM+ band 4 and y = TM band 4

18
 Original image in 1977

Normalized image in 1977

Figure 9. Original and normalized image of near infrared band of MSS

19
 Original image in 1989

Normalized image in 1989

Figure 10. Original and normalized image of near infrared band of TM

20
5.3 Change Detection
5.3.1 Image Differencing
This section shows and describes the changes detected by the image differencing method.
Temporal image differencing (subtraction) was applied to detect the changes in land cover
over time. A range of values indicates changes. This range of values was separated by
applying a threshold value. Threshold values were selected between three and standard
deviations from mean. Means and standard deviations of subtracted images of 1977 – 1989
were 11.21 and 18.5, and of 1989 – 2000 were 13.16 and 21.8 respectively. The overall
accuracy of change detection by image differencing between 1977 and 1989 was 75.29% and
between 1989 and 2000 was 81.33%. From 1977 to 1989 and 1989 to 2000, 604199 (68.87%)
and 567583 (64.7%) hectares areas were detected change respectively. Kappa coefficients and
standard deviations of change accuracy assessment are seen in table 5. The purpose of
application of image differencing in this study was to quick view the areas where changes
were occurred. In the change maps in figure 11 and 12, black color indicates change and
white color indicates no change. As seen in figures 11 and 12, and table 5, there were more
changes occurred between 1977 and 1989 than between 1989 and 2000. Location of river was
less changed during 1989 – 2000 than during 1977 – 1989.

Table 5. Accuracy of change detection by image differencing

Overall Kappa Standard

Periods Changes (In hectares)
Accuracy Coefficient Deviation
1977 - 1989 75.29 0.515 0.066 604199.2 (68.87%)
1989 - 2000 81.33 0.489 0.165 567582.8 (64.70%)

Figure 13 shows the comparison between changed and unchanged land covers over time. It
can be seen that there were more changes from 1977 to 1989 than from 1989 to 2000 in this
site on the Padma River.

21
 Legend

Change

No-change

Figure 11. Changes from 1977 to 1989 by image differencing

22
 Legend

Change

No-change

Figure 12. Changes from 1989 to 2000 by image differencing

23
 In 1977 In 1989

In 1989 In 2000

Changes from 1977 to 1989 Changes from 1989 to 2000

Figure 13. Comparison of change map of section of the Padma by image differencing method

24
5.3.2 Post Classification Comparison
Image Classification
The images of 1977, 1989 and 2000 were classified independently. Classified MSS, TM and
ETM+ indicate the major land covers for the subset in the study area in 1977, 1989 and 2000
respectively. The classified images present 877288.89 hectares. Table 6 describes the area of
major land covers that were derived from image classification in the different periods for the
subset of the study area.

Table 6. Major land covers are derived from image classification in different period
MSS (1977) TM (1989) ETM+ (2000)
Land Cover
Area (hectare) % Area (hectare) % Area (hectare) %
Water 79539.66 9.07 152483.61 17.38 122266.77 13.94
Crops/
304808.27 34.74 372969.36 42.51 333726.31 38.04
Agriculture
Grassland 74395.44 8.48 47734.47 5.44 39242.64 4.47
Wetland 11488.38 1.31 124376.11 14.18 34129.12 3.89
Old Deposit 143062.40 16.31 31329.13 3.57 90105.98 10.27
Fallow Land 211217.65 24.08 78959.47 9.00 206328.31 23.52
New Deposit 48943.59 5.58 64397.78 7.34 44807.93 5.11
Settlement 3833.50 0.44 5038.96 0.57 6681.81 0.76
Total 877288.89 100 877288.89 100 877288.89 100

Tables 7, 8 and 9 describe the confusion matrix resulting from the test set for the subset of the
study area. These confusion matrices were prepared to determine how well the classifier has
classified. Maximum likelihood supervised classifier was used for image classification. 200
pixels were selected for each class other than training set pixels as test set for accuracy
assessment. Overall accuracy of the image classifications in 1977, 1989 and 2000 were
85.64%, 89.14% and 90.07% respectively. Kappa coefficient, standard deviation and
confidence level of the accuracy assessment are shown in tables 7, 8 and 9.

25
 Legend

Water Crops/Agriculture

Grassland Wetland

Old Deposit Fallow Land

New Deposit Settlement

Figure 14. Classified image 1977 (MSS)

26
 Legend

Water Crops/Agriculture

Grassland Wetland

Old Deposit Fallow Land

New Deposit Settlement

Figure 15. Classified image 1989 (TM)

27
 Legend

Water Crops/Agriculture

Grassland Wetland

Old Deposit Fallow Land

New Deposit Settlement

Figure 16. Classified image 2000 (ETM+)

28
 Table 7. Confusion matrix resulting from classifying the test set for study area in 1977 (MSS)

Crops / Old Fallow New

Land Cover Water Grassland Wetland
Agriculture Deposit Land Deposit
Water 153 0 0 2 35 10 0
Crops/
0 162 30 0 0 8 0
Agriculture
Grassland 0 16 184 0 0 0 0
Wetland 0 20 0 176 0 4 0
Old Deposit 0 3.0 0 0 172 28 0
Fallow Land 0 0 0 0 18 182 0
New Deposit 0 0 0 0 30 0 170

Overall accuracy = 85.64%; Kappa Coefficient = 0.83250; Standard Deviation = 0.01093 and
Confidence Level: 99% 0.83250 +/- 0.02819; 95% 0.83250 +/- 0.02142; 90% 0.83250 +/-
0.01797

Table 8. Confusion matrix resulting from classifying the test set for study area in 1989 (TM)
Crops / Old Fallow New
Land Cover Water Grassland Wetland
Agriculture Deposit Land Deposit
Water 190 3 0 7 0 0 0
Crops /
0 182 8 2 0 6 0
Agriculture
Grassland 0 9 183 2 0 6 0
Wetland 0 12 0 186 0 2 0
Old Deposit 0 4 2 30 158 3 1
Fallow Land 0 0 0 26 1 153 0
New Deposit 5 0 0 2 4 0 194

Overall accuracy = 89.14%; Kappa Coefficient = 0.87333; Standard Deviation = 0.00969;

Confidence Level: 99% 0.87333 +/- 0.02500; 95% 0.87333 +/- 0.01899; 90% 0.87333 +/-
0.01594

29
 Table 9. Confusion matrix resulting from classifying the test set for the study area in 2000
(ETM+)
Crops / Old Fallow New
Land Cover Water Grassland Wetland
Agriculture Deposit Land Deposit
Water 186 0 0 4 0 10 0
Crops/
0 189 11 0 0 0 0
Agriculture
Grassland 0 18 181 0 0 1 0
Wetland 0 1 0 176 19 4 0
Old Deposit 0 7 0 11 141 41 0
Fallow Land 0 2 0 2 0 196 0
New Deposit 0 0 0 0 8 0 192

Overall accuracy = 90.07%; Kappa Coefficient = 0.88417; Standard Deviation = 0.00931;

Confidence Level: 99% 0.88417 +/- 0.02403; 95% 0.88417 +/- 0.01825; 90% 0.88417 +/-
0.01532.

Comparison

400000
In 1977
350000
In 1989
Area in Hectares

300000
In 2000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
e

it
nd
nd

t
nd
er

si
r

os
tu
at

po

La
la

la

ep
ul
W

ss

et

De
ric

D
W
ra

llo
Ag

ew
ld
G

Fa
O

N
/
ps
ro

Land Covers
C

Figure 17. Areal comparison of land covers in different years

The chart in the figure 17 shows a comparison of land cover in different period by area. This
chart visualizes the variation of the different types of land cover over time. The area of water,

30
 crops/agriculture and new deposit were more unchanging than area of wetland, old deposit
and fallow land over time. These types of land covers varied highly over the years. Note that
this chart compares only the areal change.

Table 10. Transition matrix (% of land covers in 1989 in areal)

From 1977 Total

Land Covers Crops / Old Fallow New in 1989
Water Grassland Wetland
Agriculture Deposit Land Deposit (%)
Water 25.41 13.61 3.55 2.38 24.08 17.47 13.51 17.38
Crops /
2.17 49.93 8.06 1.07 11.72 25.86 1.19 42.51
Agriculture
Grassland 2.94 29.42 12.90 0.71 19.81 30.97 3.25 5.44
In 1989

Wetland 8.41 31.52 10.43 1.51 17.33 25.86 4.93 14.18

Old Deposit 9.56 26.50 14.73 0.55 16.11 25.42 7.13 3.57
Fallow land 3.43 37.41 16.38 0.91 11.57 27.77 2.53 9.00
New
23.46 9.49 3.38 1.15 27.02 16.87 18.63 7.34
Deposit

Table 10 describes the transition matrix in percentage of change of land cover in 1989 from
1977. As seen in this table, only 25.41% water type land cover was from 1977 and the rest
was new area from different types of land covers. 13.61% and 17.47% water were from
crops/agriculture and fallow land respectively. 26.50% old deposit and 23.46% new deposit
were from crops/agriculture and water correspondingly.

Table 11 describes the transition matrix in percentage of change of land cover in 2000 from
1989. As seen in this table, only 52.69% water type land cover was from 1989 and the rest
was new area from different types of land cover. 17.37% wetland, 27.62% old deposit and
47.71% new deposit was from water. 46.08% fallow land was from crops/agriculture.

31
 Table 11. Transition matrix (% of land covers since 2000 in areal)

From 1989 Total in

Land Covers Crops/ Old Fallow New 2000
Water Grassland Wetland
Agriculture Deposit Land Deposit (%)
Water 52.69 10.70 2.18 12.17 3.99 3.36 14.93 13.94
Crops /
5.16 65.93 5.87 11.12 1.64 7.36 2.92 38.04
Agriculture
Grassland 12.41 38.30 15.00 14.97 2.23 10.21 6.87 4.47
In 2000

Wetland 17.37 33.62 2.97 28.65 3.70 9.52 4.17 3.89

Old Deposit 27.62 14.34 5.35 19.12 9.89 7.89 15.80 10.27
Fallow Land 6.69 46.08 6.16 16.29 3.82 16.58 4.39 23.52
New
47.71 9.47 2.05 12.81 4.56 3.36 20.05 5.11
Deposit

In the change maps in figure 18 and 19, black color indicates change and white color indicates
no change. These change maps have been derived by PCC. Overall accuracy of change
detection assessment during 1977 – 1989 and 1989 – 2000 are 86.72% and 90.91%
respectively. Kappa coefficient and standard deviation of accuracy assessment of change
detection are shown in table 12. According to table 12, 601490 (68.56%) and 520669
(59.35%) hectares land cover changed during 1977 – 1989 and 1989 – 2000 respectively. As
seen in figures 18 and 19, and table 12, about 9% land covers are detected more changes
during 1977 – 1989 than 1989 – 2000. Changes during 1977 – 1989 are detected all over the
study area (figure 18). However, as like change detection by image differencing, location of
river was detected less changes during 1989 – 2000 than during 1977 – 1989 by PCC.
Changes are observed more alongside the river area during 1977 – 2000.

Table 12. Change detection accuracy by PCC

Overall Kappa Standard
Periods Changes (In hectares)
Accuracy Coefficient Deviation
1977 - 1989 86.72 0.772 0.029 601490 (68.56%)
1989 - 2000 90.91 0.813 0.039 520669.10 (59.35%)

32
 Legend

Change

No-change

Figure 18. Changes from 1977 to 1989 by PCC

33
 Legend

Change

No-change

Figure 19. Changes from 1989 to 2000 by PCC

34
Figures 20 and 21 show the point of confluence of the Padma and the Jamuna and figures 22
and 23 show a section of the Padma to compare the change maps those are derived by image
differencing and PCC. Red crosses in the figures 20 and 21 indicate the same position. Red
crosses in the figures 22 and 23 also indicate the same position. There were 69% of land cover
changed between 1977 and 1989 that is detected by both image differencing and PCC.
However, there are 6% more detected land covers changes by PCC than by image
differencing during 1989 – 2000 (tables 5 and 12). There are big observed differences
between the change maps derived by image differencing and PCC. As seen in figure 20, old
deposit and fallow land are visible in the red circled area in 1977; they are completely covered
by water in 1989. This change is detected clearly by PCC whereas change detection by image
differencing shows more unchanged (red circle area of figure 21). It is also shown in the
figures 22 and 23. Water, old deposit and new deposit are seen in the red circled area of image
in 1989 that are not visible in the red circled area of image in 2000 (figure 22). In 2000, only
old deposit is visible. This change is detected clearly by PCC (figure 23). Through these
experiments, it has been shown that changes have been detected better by PCC than image
differencing. For further quantification of erosion and deposition, classified images have been
used.

Figure 24 shows a section of the Padma and the point of confluence of the Padma and the
Jamuna to compare the changes of land cover. Red crosses in the figures indicate the same
position. As seen in figure 24a, the erosion occurred toward south and the river channel
migrated toward south. It is also seen how the new deposit, old deposit, fallow land, grassland
and crops/agricultural land interchanged from 1977 to 2000. The point of the confluence of
Padma and the Jamuna changed from 1977 to 2000 (figure 24b). It moved toward the south-
east. The location of the confluence of the Padma and the Jamuna in 1977s has become
grassland gradually (black circle in figure 24b). The figure also shows how the land covers
change with each other over time.

35
 In 1977 (MSS)

In 1989 (TM)
Figure 20. Confluence point of the Padma and the Jamuna

36
 Changes derived by image differencing

Changes derived by PCC

Figure 21. Change image of confluence point from 1977 to 1989

37
 In 1989 (TM)

In 2000 (ETM+)
Figure 22. Section of the Padma

38
 Changes derived by image differencing

Changes derived by PCC

Figure 23. Change image of section of the Padma from 1989 to 2000

39
 In 1977 In 1977

In 1989 In 1989

In 2000 In 2000
a. Section of the Padma b. Point of the confluence of the Padma and the
Jamuna
Figure 24. Post classification comparison of some selected locations

40
5.4 Quantification of Erosion and Deposition
In this section, the erosion and deposition of land covers of the Padma and the Jamuna are
presented in specific periods. Erosion and deposition of river banks were estimated from 1977
to 1989 and 1989 to 2000. Table 13 shows the share of eroded land covers from 1977 to 2000.

Table 13. Share of eroded land covers from 1977 to 2000 (in hectares)
Land Covers From 1977 to 1989 From 1989 to 2000
Water 844.16 1683.93
Crops/agriculture 23929.52 15616.05
Grassland 9407.44 1579.51
Wetland 683.13 6860.74
Old Deposit 9142.22 2277.67
Fallow Land 21042.34 3637.26
New Deposit 184.68 835.38
Total 65233.49 32490.55

The total erosion from 1977 to 1989 and from 1989 to 2000 amounted to 65233 and 32491
hectares respectively. The rate of erosion from 1989 to 2000 was slower than that from 1977
to 1989. In these periods, 1977 to 1989 and 1989 to 2000, the erosion was higher for
crops/agriculture type land cover. The maps in the figures 25 and 26 show the share of eroded
land covers from 1977 to 1989 and 1989 to 2000 respectively. As seen in table 13, and figure
25 and 26, the rate of erosion from 1977 to 1989 was twice that of 1989 to 2000.

41
Old Deposit

New Deposit

Figure 25. Share of eroded land covers from 1977 to 1989

42
Old Deposit

New Deposit

Figure 26. Share of eroded land covers from 1989 to 2000

43
 Table 14. Share of deposited land covers from 1977 and 2000 (in hectares)
Land Cover From 1977 to 1989 From 1989 to 2000
Water 1441.23 619.47
Crops/agriculture 898.21 11910.45
Grassland 455.47 1931.00
Wetland 141.92 1044.07
Old Deposit 3295.57 1460.65
Fallow Land 2610.38 4392.39
New Deposit 430.86 133.44
Total 9273.63 21491.47

Table 14 shows the share of deposited land covers from 1977 to 2000. Total depositions from
1977 to 1989 were 9274 hectares and from 1989 to 2000 were 21491 hectares respectively.
The map in figure 27 shows the share of deposited land from 1989 to 2000. As seen in table
14 and figure 29, the rate of deposition from 1977 to 1989 was slower compared to that from
1989 to 2000. The maps in figure 28 and 29 show the location of erosion and deposition in
different periods from 1977 to 2000. The red circles in figure 28 show that these areas were
eroded during 1977-89. The areas that were deposited during 1989-2000 are shown in figure
29. It shows that the directions of erosion and deposition change over time. For this reason, at
the end of the study period (in 2000), apparent changes from 1977 to 2000 in these areas have
disappeared. The estimated average erosion from 1977 to 1989 and 1989 to 2000 was 5436
hectares/year and 2954 hectares/year respectively. The average deposition from 1977 to 1989
and 1989 to 2000 was 773 hectares/year and 1954 hectares/year correspondingly.

44
Old Deposit

New Deposit

Figure 27. Share of deposited land covers from 1989 to 2000

45
Figure 28. Location of erosion from 1977 to 2000

46
 Figure 29. Location of deposition from 1977 to 2000

The chart in the figure 30 shows the comparison between average erosion and deposition per
year from 1977 to 2000. The difference in rate of erosion and deposition between 1977-89
and 1989-2000 could be caused by severe floods. There were severe floods in 1977, 1980,

47
1987, 1988 and 1998 between the study periods from 1977 to 2000. Moreover, floods in
1987, 1988 and 1998 were the most devastating for the country.

6000

5000
Area in hectares

4000

Average erosion/year
3000
Average deposition/year
2000

1000

0
1977-89 1989-2000
Year

Figure 30. Average erosion and deposition between 1977-89 and 1989-2000

The chart in figure 31 shows flooded area for each year. Around 72%, 63% and 37% of the
land area of the country were flooded in 1998, 1988 and 1987 respectively. Although,
inundation of these areas was also caused by the Meghna River, the major portion of area
inundation was caused by floods of the Padma and the Jamuna.

120

100
Flooded area (000 sq.km)

80

60

40

20

0
1977
1978
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1996
1997
1998
1999

Year

Figure 31. Flooded area for each year (Source: Mirza et al., 2001)

48
Table 15 shows the flood levels of the Padma and the Jamuna. This table describes the mean
bank level and maximum flood level in the specified year. The mean bank level at the stations
of Bahadurabad in the Jamuna and at Hardinge Bridge in the Padma are 18.93 meters and
14.01 meters respectively. The flood levels in 1987, 1988 and 1998 exceeded far from mean
bank level (table 15).

Table 15. Flood level of the Padma and the Jamuna

Rive-Station’s Mean bank level Maximum flood level in specified years (in meter)
name (in meter) In 1987 In 1988 In 1998
Jamuna-
18.93 19.68 20.61 20.41
Bahadurabad
Padma- Hardinge
14.01 14.79 14.87 15.19
Bridge
Source: Islam and Chowdhury, 2002

Table 16 shows the maximum discharge level in 1987, 1988 and 1998 and bank full discharge
level in the Padma and the Jamuna. Water discharge capacity of the Padma at Hardinge
Bridge and the Jamuna at Bahadurabad is 43000 m3/s and 48000 m3/s respectively (table 16).
Maximum discharge of the rivers in 1987, 1988 and 1998 were almost twice their capacity
level. These levels of floods occurred two times between 1977 and 1989, but only once
between 1989 and 2000. This could explain the higher rate of erosion between 1977 and 1989
than between 1989 and 2000.

Table 16. Maximum and bank full discharge in the Padma and the Jamuna
Maximum
Rive-Station’s name Year Bank full discharge (cum/s)
discharge (cum/s)
1987 76000
Padma- Hardinge Brige 1988 72300 43000
1998 80300
1987 73000
Jamuna- Bahadurabad 1988 98300 48000
1998 93658
Source: Ferdows and Hossain, 2005, and Islam and Chowdhury, 2002

49
Floods in 1987 and 1988 were characterized by high volume of water but lands were flooded
only for a short period (Younus, 2005). The high volume of water eroded land alongside the
banks of the river. These flash floods eroded land rapidly. In the case of the flood of 1998, a
high volume of water flooded for a long time. It caused more harm to the crops and farm
lands. As a result of long time inundation, silt from upstream formed some deposition. This
could be another reason for the higher rate of erosion and lower rate of deposition between
1977 and 1989 than between 1989 and 2000.

5.5 River Channel Movement

Channels of the Padma and the Jamuna are changing over time due to erosion and deposition.
Table 17 shows the changes of channel areas of the Padma and the Jamuna in different
periods. This table explains and compares the total river areas and river channel areas over
time. Through this table, the seasonal variations of the river channels are described. During
the winter (dry season) the river channel shrinks to between 26% - 39% of the monsoon size
(rainy season).

Table 17. Changes of Channel of the Padma and the Jamuna (total river area determined
during monsoon, river channel area determined during dry season)
Period Total River Area (in sq km) River Channel Area (in sq m) Percentage
1977 2788.63 720.63 25.84
1989 3348.20 1310.96 39.15
2000 3458.18 1106.96 32.01

The map in the figure 32 shows the changes and movement of the river channels of the Padma
and the Jamuna over time. Movement of channels is quite inconsistent. As seen in figure 32,
the general trend of movement of channels of the Padma is toward the south. There is no
recognizable trend observed for the Jamuna. Movement of the middle part of the Jamuna is
westward, however at the upper part, it is eastward. Figure 33 shows the section of the
channel of the Padma (top) and the point of the confluence of the Padma and the Jamuna
(down). As seen in this figure, the channel of the selected location of the Padma moves
toward the south. The point of confluence of the Padma and the Jamuna is moving toward the
southeast.

50
Figure 32. Movement of River Channels since 1977 to 2000

51
Figure 33. Section of the Padma (top) and point of the confluence of the Padma and the
Jamuna (down)

52
6 Conclusion and Further Research

The aim of this study was to estimate the eroded and deposited banks of the Padma and the
Jamuna and to visualize the movement of their channels. Landsat imagery, MSS in 1977, TM
in 1989 and ETM+ in 2000 was used in this study. TM and ETM+ were acquired in the early
winter, while MSS was acquired in late winter. Classified MSS represents the land cover in
the late winter in 1977, and TM and ETM+ represent the land covers in the early winter in
1989 and 2000 respectively. The overall accuracies of the classifications were 85.64%,
89.14% and 90.07 in 1977, 1989 and 2000 correspondingly.

The classified images represent eight types of land cover, where urban areas were separated
using mask. As seen in figures 14, 15 and 16, fallow land and old deposit were more apparent
on both sides of the Jamuna in 1977 than in 1989 and 2000. The river channel (water body)
was narrower in 1977 compared with in 1989 and 2000 (figure 14, 15 and 16 and table 6).
This is caused by variation of dryness. With increasing dryness the water level decreases and
the river channel will be narrower in late winter than in early winter. Because of winter
harvesting, crops /agriculture lands appear as fallow land in late winter. For this reason,
fallow land and old deposit were more apparent in 1977 than in 1989 and 2000. However, this
variation of dryness has little influence on variation of land covers. It can be assumed that
erosion and deposition are not significantly influenced by the variation of water levels during
one season.

From 1977 to 1989 and 1989 to 2000, estimated average erosion was 5436 and 2954
hectares/year and depositions were 773 and 1954 hectares/year correspondingly. In 1977,
1989 and 2000, the estimated river area in the study area was 2789, 3348 and 3458 sq km.
During this period there was more erosion than deposition, which indicates that the rivers are
getting wider. River channels are migrating due to erosion and deposition. The general trend
of channel movement of the Padma is towards the south but there is no recognizable trend
observed for the Jamuna.

53
RS and GIS were applied to achieve the desired result. The study’s scope was to estimate
eroded and deposited land covers and to visualize the movement of the channels of the Padma
and the Jamuna. This study used quite limited data. MSS in 1977, TM in 1989 and ETM+ in
2000 of Landsat imagery from dry (winter) season were used in this study. These data
covered the Jamuna and part of the Padma. Local knowledge and texture of the images were
used in image classification. There were no secondary data sources available that could help
in cross checking. Hydrological, meteorological and geological data might be useful to identify
the amount of direction of erosion and deposition. For further study about the dynamic river
system of the Padma and the Jamuna, it is strongly recommended that data should cover the whole
area. Wet season data should be used to study seasonal variation.

54
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