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Number 9, Autumn
The view from the corporate suite 6
2003
A survey of multinational corporations finds expectations for more—
and more profitable—alliances in China.
McKinsey & Company is an international management consulting firm serving corporate and government
institutions from 83 offices in 45 countries.
Editorial Board: Marc Goedhart, Keiko Honda, Bill Javetski, Timothy Koller,
Robert McNish, Dennis Swinford
Editorial Contact: McKinsey_on_Finance@McKinsey.com
Editor: Dennis Swinford
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Design and Layout: Kim Bartko
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Copyright © 2003 McKinsey & Company. All rights reserved.
Cover images, left to right: © Jonathan Evans/Photodisc Green/Getty Images; © Photodisc Blue/Getty Images;
© Digital Vision/Getty Images; © Steven Swift/Images.com
This publication is not intended to be used as the basis for trading in the shares of any company or undertaking
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No part of this publication may be copied or redistributed in any form without the prior written consent of
McKinsey & Company.
Restructuring alliances in China
Twenty-five years after alliances first paved the way into the world’s most dynamic
emerging market, knowing how to structure them is more important than ever.
Jonathan R. Woetzel
n China, alliances have been the dominant go wrong as markets, partners, and
I form of foreign direct investment since
Beijing officially opened the country to the
competitors evolve.
69
60 60 55 60 57 57 60
40 40 45 43 43
40 40
31
Source: 2003 McKinsey Chinese alliances survey of 31 companies in automotive, basic materials, consumer goods/pharmaceuticals, energy, and high-tech/telecom sectors
Percentage of alliances
Foreign-owned multinational companies measure alliance . . . while their Chinese partners measure success in other ways
success in terms of profits . . .
(100% = 459 alliances)
(100% = 359 alliances)
Does alliance meet financial and Does alliance meet financial and
strategic expectations? Is alliance profitable? strategic expectations? Is alliance profitable?
Not
Not Unprofitable meeting
meeting Unprofitable
21
34 32 40
48 Meeting 44 Meeting 60
68
18 35
Source: 2003 McKinsey Chinese alliances survey of 31 companies in automotive, basic materials, consumer goods/pharmaceuticals, energy, and high-tech/telecom sectors
Strong performers
12 61 27 23 77
(n = 9)
Average performers
35 38 27 33 67
(n = 13)
Weak performers 3
86 11 64 36
(n = 9)
100% 100%
1
Strong performers = ≥80% of alliance portfolios meet/exceed targets and ≥60% profitable; weak performers = <20% meet/exceed targets or <40% profitable; average performers =
all others.
Source: 2003 McKinsey Chinese alliances survey of 31 companies in automotive, basic materials, consumer goods/pharmaceuticals, energy, and high-tech/telecom sectors
Price-to-
Insurance companies are at a critical juncture
21.6 21.6 21.6
earnings ratio in shaping their investment strategies. They
10.0
must scale back some of the excessive risk
they took on during a bull market, and also
Value of company review basic investment strategies. In the end,
$ billion 2.2
1.5 1.6 1.6 too, they must acknowledge that they can
deliver lasting shareholder value only by a
1
Assumes risk-free rate of 5% and market risk premium of 5%. better alignment of their product and
2
Reduced investment risk in line with optimal liability portfolio.
3
Includes value of dividends paid or share buybacks. investment goals. MoF
Source: McKinsey analysis
Median annualized TRS, percent; Dec 31, 1995–Dec 31, 1999 Median annualized TRS, percent; Dec 31, 1999–June 23, 2003
Sector S&P 500 Europe top 500 Sector S&P 500 Europe top 500
Financials 21 29 Financials 7 –8
Utilities 4 20 Utilities 12 –4
Top 500: 17% Top 500: 21% Top 500: 1% Top 500: –12%
Source: McKinsey analysis Source: McKinsey analysis
the European high-tech sectors also performed same pattern as the UK and US markets.
worse than in the United States, their relative The conclusion we came to, when looking
weight in the market was also much smaller at the economic fundamentals of European
and hence they contributed much less to the countries, was that even during the bull
overall decline. market it was impossible to justify P/E ratios
of 20 or more (Exhibit 3).4 Over the past few
months, as with the US market, the P/Es of
Is the European market fairly
European markets have returned close to their
valued now?
fundamental range, indicating that after a
Using the same valuation model that we period of extreme volatility, current valuations
used to review the US market, we found are broadly in line with economic
that actual P/E ratios in the United Kingdom fundamentals over the past six months.
behaved much the same way as those in the
United States, deviating from a range We won’t forecast near-term market
predicted by market fundamentals only direction, but given that long-term economic
during the oil shocks of the 1970s and the fundamentals have been surprisingly stable
new-economy euphoria of the 1990s.3 Wildly over time, we can estimate that European
different interest rates and inflation levels markets will generate around 6.5 to
across European countries would make it 7.0 percent real returns over the next ten
difficult to assemble a truly European long- years. In Europe, returning to peak market
term perspective on P/E valuation levels, but levels is likely to take a bit longer than in the
at least for the period that we could United States largely because the bull market
reasonably construct a European market rise was stronger in Europe, and the decline
environment—since 1997—it followed the steeper.
25
Actual P/E
20
15
10
Fundamental P/E
0
1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2002
Source: McKinsey analysis
4 12 4 309
3 12 5 139
2 19 –8 96
1 23 –18 78
0 11 –20 0
a powerful partner in the coffee market. For into a 20-year licensing agreement with
its part, Starbucks dramatically reduced its Coolbrands International to open a chain of
risk exposure by relying on Pepsi’s beverage “Tropicana Smoothies” stores.
know-how and its distribution muscle.
Starbucks also used the experience as a model Alliances can also be used to better penetrate
for subsequent partnerships, including a 50- new consumer segments. In an effort to tap
50 joint venture with Dreyer’s to develop a the growing Hispanic population in the
new line of superpremium coffee ice creams. United States, ConAgra entered into a 50-50
joint venture with Sigma Alimentos, a leading
Mexican frozen food company. The partners
Extending to new channels and
manufacture, market, and distribute frozen
consumers
prepared food in the United States and
CPG companies have successfully used a Canada, in addition to Mexico and Central
variety of alliance types to reach new America. ConAgra brings product
consumers, channels, and occasions, including development and manufacturing expertise as
licensing brands to and from other companies well as its American and Canadian
and partnering to reach new consumer distribution network to the joint venture.
segments and channels. Licensing brands to Sigma brings expertise in formulating
other companies has proved attractive for Mexican food, its Mexican customer base,
many companies including M&M/Mars, and an established distribution network and
which licenses several of its candy brands in a plants. Or consider the alliance between Kraft
partnership with Dreyer’s Grand Ice Cream. and Starbucks to distribute Starbucks Coffee
Another is Tropicana, which recently entered in US groceries. For Kraft, the deal fills a gap