Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
Univeristy of Michigan
Assumptions
Competitive markets
Frictions small relative to power of ideas
Capital can flow easily
Time value of money (TVM)
- Terminology
PV= Present Value (value at zero) ($)
FV= Future Value (at certain period) ($)
n= number of periods (T)
r= Interest Rate (%) > 0 (assumption)
- Future Value
FV= PV + r * PV = (1 + r ) * PV
Future value factor = FVF = ( 1 + r )
simple interest the FV that comes from rate of return remains constant and adds to present value in periods of ti
**Compounding**
For compound interest
FV= PV ( 1 + r ) ^ n
Future Value of $1000 USD in ten years for 10% interest rate
FV= 1000 * (1 + 0.1) ^10
$ 2,593.74
($2,593.74)
**PMT in the FV formula is the payment between the period to look
What are the values of investing $1000 at 5% versus 15% for 90 years?
($80,730.37) ($290,272,325.21)
PV = FV / ( ( 1 + r ) ^ n )
Present value of receiving $1,100 one year if the interest rate is 10%
($1,000.00)
Suppose you will inherit $1210 two years from now and the interes rate is 10%. What is the value today to you?
($1,000.00)
What are the present values of receiving $1 MM at 5% versus 15% fifity years from today?
($87,203,726.97) ($922,800.84)
resent value in periods of time
t is the value today to you?
($164.68) ($227.71)
- Shawn wants to buy a new telescope. He estimates that it will take him one year to save the money and that the
($188.68)
- Jeff has $1,800 that he invests in a safe financial instrument expected to return 4% annually. Marge has $900 an
Jeff Marge
($4,101.78) ($4,530.45)
- Don has just received a cash gift of $65,000 from his rich eccentric uncle. He wants to set it aside to pay for his d
($127,864.84)
the money and that the telescope will cost $200. At an interest rate of 6%, how much does Shawn need to set aside today to purchase the
ually. Marge has $900 and invests in a more risky venture that is expected to return 8% annually. Who has more after 21 years? And how m
et it aside to pay for his daughter Cynthia's college education. Cynthia will begin college in 10 years and Don's financial advisor says that she
aside today to purchase the telescope in one year?
ancial advisor says that she can earn 7% interest on an investment in a special college fund. How much will Don have in the fund when Cyn
have in the fund when Cynthia begins college?
Simple applications
What will be the value of your bank account if you deposit $1 K every year in a bank. You plan to leave home in five
$5,525.63
How much will be in your bank account 50 years from now if you save $1 K per year and have a interes rate of 5% ve
You are starting college. How much money do you need in the bank today so you can spend $3K every year for the n
Suppose the bank pays an interest rate of 5%
($10,637.85)
- Taking a Loan
You plan to attend an in-state college and your parent will take out a loan of
$100 K at 6%. Ehat are the yearly payments, given that they will have 5 years to pay back the loan?
($23,739.64)
- Perpetuities
A set of equal payments that are paid forever, without growth
PV perp= C / r
Examples
Stocks
Company
Long term
First very 30 years is stronger than later
- growth stock
Company that is growing not equally, new expansion
Perpetuity
end $3K every year for the next four years, starting this year
- Bridgette's grandparents opened a savings account for her and placed $700 in the account. The account pays 3.5% intere
($1,021.98) ($729.98)
($291.99)
- Joe is getting ready to buy a car. He has $20,000 in investments earning 5.6% annually. The car also costs $20,000. If he d
($27,734.06) ($22,523.25)
($5,210.82)
- Ralph knows that he is going to have to replace his roof soon. If he has the roof replaced now, it will cost $15,000. He cou
- Jessica is in the market for a new car. She has narrowed her search down to 2 models. Model A costs $28,000 and Model
0.56 0.37
Model A Model B
Future Value $ 15,680.00 $ 6,660.00
Present Value Compare all quantities at PV or FV
after 3 years $13,939.46 $5,920.72
Present Value $ 28,000.00 $ 18,000.00
Comparision $ 1,981.25
B is cheaper for $ 1 981.25
- College tuition has been rising at a rate of 4% per year. Currently the average tuition of a state college is $12,200 per year
Tuition
$12,200 @ 4%
PV?
rate of 5% you can think of how much you will need to save for each tuition, one at a time
Total $43,300.73 Compare each quatity separate because of time value!!
he account pays 3.5% interest. Bridgette wants to be a singer and she has her heart set on a new karaoke machine. The machine costs $200
ar also costs $20,000. If he doesn't pay cash for the car, Joe can get a loan at 2.0% interest for 6 years. The loan is structured so that Joe pay
w, it will cost $15,000. He could wait 4 years, but it will then cost him $20,000. At what rate will these options cost the same? This is also kno
for negatives!!
A costs $28,000 and Model B costs $18,000. With both cars she plans to pay cash and own them for 3 years before trading in for a new car
antities at PV or FV
e college is $12,200 per year. Andrea's son Trevor will begin college in 11 years. Andrea's portfolio is making 5% annually. How much does A
structured so that Joe pays one balloon payment at the end of 6 years. The balloon payment includes the principal plus all interest accrued
re trading in for a new car. Her research indicates that the trade in value for Model A after 3 years is 56% of the initial purchase price, while
nnually. How much does Andrea need to have set aside today/now to pay for 4 years of college for Trevor? (Note: Tuition will continue to c
$21,971.51
15
$10,568.67
ow versus leaving the account untouched?
plus all interest accrued over 6 years. If Joe takes the loan will he have enough money available from his investments to make the balloon p
tial purchase price, while the trade in value for Model B is 37%. Jessica has no emotional attachment to either model and wants to make a s
uition will continue to change annually and Andrea's portfolio balance will continue to accrue interest while Trevor is in school. Also, tuition
nts to make the balloon payment? How much will he be short/have to spare?
del and wants to make a strictly financial decision. The interest rate is 4%. For simplicity assume that operating and maintenance costs for t
You plan to attand an in/state college and your parents will take out a loan of 100 K USD
at 6%. What are your yearly payments, given that you will have 5 years to pay back the
Loan?
($23,739.64)
Amortization Table
Beginning Principal
Year Balance Yearly Payment Interest Repayment
1 $ 100,000.00 $23,739.64 $ 6,000.00 $17,739.64
2 $ 82,260.36 $23,739.64 $ 4,935.62 $18,804.02
3 $ 63,456.34 $23,739.64 $ 3,807.38 $19,932.26
4 $ 43,524.08 $23,739.64 $ 2,611.44 $21,128.20
5 $ 22,395.89 $23,739.64 $ 1,343.75 $22,395.89
You plan to attand an in/state college and your parents will take out a loan of 100 K USD
at 6%. What are your Monthly payments, given that you will have 5 years to pay back the
Loan?
Divide year rate by months
($1,933.28)
0.005
Beginning Monthly Principal
Month Balance Payment Interest Repayment
1 $ 100,000.00 $ 1,933.28 $ 500.00 $ 1,433.28
2 $ 98,566.72 $ 1,933.28 $ 492.83 $ 1,440.45
3 $ 97,126.27 $ 1,933.28 $ 485.63 $ 1,447.65
58 $ 5,742.32 $ 1,933.28 $ 28.71 $ 1,904.57
59 $ 3,837.75 $ 1,933.28 $ 19.19 $ 1,914.09
60 $ 1,923.66 $ 1,933.28 $ 9.62 $ 1,923.66
k= compounding interval
0.0616778119
- Saving for College
$ 10,000.00
2.50%
Other method
Total amount that requires saves $41,586.22
$34,213.09 ($34,213.09)
Confirmation
2.5% (Tuiti $10,000.00 ($11,314.08) ($11,596.93)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
5% (Portfol $34,213.09 $43,665.53 $33,969.02
($11,886.86) ($12,184.03)
7 8
$23,490.69 $12,184.03
$11,603.84 $0.00
- Financial Planning
21 years of payments
5% ($641,057.64)
$50,000 $50,000
0
Years 25 26 54 55 75
29
PMT $10,286.10
She needs to save $10,286.10 every year on her 26th birthday until she gets 54th to get
$50,000 dollars every year during 20 years
- Making Complex Simple
0 1 2 3 4 5
$ 75,000.00 $80,625.00 $86,671.88 $93,172.27 $100,160.19 $107,672.20
At year 10
$154,577.37 Investment
($53,675.06) Draw
$100,902.30 Total
$ 12,000.00 $ 12,000.00 $ 12,000.00 $ 12,000.00
6 7 8 9 10
$115,747.61 $124,428.69 $133,760.84 $143,792.90 $154,577.37
-
$380,000
Down payment 0.15 $57,000
$1,733.93
($1,095,425.48)
32 31 32 55
55 ? ? ?
24
PMT $14,265
$400,000 84 month to refinance for 3.5% year refinance fee for $5,50
$320,000.0 Loan 15 year @ 8%
$216,322.84 In the 85th month
$3,058.09 Monthly loan
??33,911 96
-
Option A Option B
Rebate of $1900 Pay $550 and $225 per month in 36 months
After buy it for 10,900
$8,170.92
$17,100 PV $17,840.28 PV
4% interest Market
$ 120,000.00 $ 120,000.00 $ 120,000.00 $ 120,000.00
56 … … 75
$527.78
$17,876.24 PV
Contract between borrower and lender
Contract IOU to return money
Loans
Mortages House
Bonds Government
- Treasure Security
Zero coupond bond
($95,238.10)
$ 74,726.00
0 1 3 4 5
$ 100,000.00
**In the function Rate one of them should be negative in the amount to assume the operation
6.00% Is the Rate of return of Yield to Maturity
Coupon 1500
FV= $100,000
C/2 C/2 C/2
0 1 2 … … 12
$70,000.00
Convex curve in price of bond
$60,000.00
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%
You go up, and when you'll see something called the Bond Center.
And this site is for America and the municipal bonds, you'll see yields
also increasing with maturity, but there's a little bit of a curve ball there.
Because municipal bonds tend to have more risk, these are state bonds,
than federal government,
which assume to have the basic risk free structure, you'll see the rating show up.
So AA, AAA and typically, what you'll find is that the lower
the rating of the bond, the higher the yield of maturity.
C C C+FV
0 1 2 … … 10
X
X= Price of Bond
C=Coupon
FV=Face Value
X= PV(C,FV)
Column C
1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8%
-
FV = $25,000
0 1 2 … … 20
r = 3%
PV = ?
False you have to divide in terms of coupon return (by means of 3, 6 monhs)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
PV=$770
n=8 years
Strip
Institution buys Institution Sells
PV=$250 PV=$1000
n=30 years zero coupon
c=$4 / 6 months n= from 6 months to 30 years
"The price of a long-term Strip will typically be lower that of a short-term STRIP"
1
FV=$1,000
8
bonds are first paid are contracts
stocks require stake normally down payments
stocks are paid in shares
dividends are payments that are not every time paid
equity have lives in bonds
stocks tend to last forever
IOU in expectation sense
nobody should be able to predict it in a good market, because the value of today's
price is based on everything you know about the future.
And so if you knew that tomorrow's price was higher or lower,
today's price would adjust accordingly and you'll see that why.
I think that's just awesome.
It's called market efficiency.
You can read, you can Google something called Random Vock.
It's a very famous concept.
Po=1/.05
20
Finite life of 50 years
$18.26
This is a PV problem, with an r of what?
0.05, and the number of PV is 50.
And what is PMT?
1, close bracket.
Took a long time to do.
[LAUGH] Do it in Excel, this approximately will be 18.26.
What does this mean?
Stare at it.
So let me ask you this.
The value we got for a perpetuity was 20, so 20 minus this is what?
$1.74.
And do you know what that is the present value of?
Getting 1 bucks starting in year 51 forever.
I mean, that's all it's worth today.
You are getting 1 buck repeatedly every year forever.
So on the other hand, now, let me change the example and
try if you increase the interest rate to 10%, what will happen to this number?
This number will become lesser and lesser.
So how the interest rate,
the more the discounting effect and the closer you're seal with
r formula is to what you would need to do even with the spreadsheet, pretty cool.
MANDY
$ 57.84
Po 56 P1 $ 57.84
D1 2.6
D2 3.2
r 9%
Po 43 D1 1.3975
r 9%
DIV1/Po 3.25% P1 45.4725
D1 9.75
r 11%
P0 ? $ 89
Reduce indiosyncratic risk or proper from the industries
Only market risk
Diversify in portfolios