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Advanced Clean Transit - Cost Assumptions and Data Sources - Update on 10/3/2016

The costs are in 2016 constant dollar. No inflation and discount is applied to this analysis.

Table 1 - General Default Values

Anuual mileage per bus 40,000
Bus life span (years) 14 Federal Transit Administration's requirement is 12 years. Transit agencies typically keep buses for additional 2 years.

Table 2 - Standard Transit Bus Capital Costs (in 2016$)

Battery electric
Battery electric (on-route
Year Diesel CNG Low NOx CNG Diesel Hybrid (depot charge) charge) Fuel Cell Electric
2016 480,000 520,000 540,000 690,000 770,000 750,000 1,235,000
2017 491,260 532,198 552,667 706,186 754,187 733,062 1,100,000
2018 502,783 544,682 565,631 722,751 738,374 716,124 1,050,000
2019 514,577 557,459 578,899 739,705 722,561 699,186 1,000,000
2020 526,648 570,535 592,479 757,056 706,748 682,247 900,000
2021 539,002 583,919 606,377 774,815 715,099 689,772 850,000
2022 551,645 597,616 620,601 792,990 723,451 697,297 800,000
2023 564,586 611,634 635,159 811,592 731,802 704,822 750,000
2024 577,829 625,982 650,058 830,630 740,153 712,347 750,000
2025 591,384 640,666 665,307 850,114 748,504 719,872 750,000
2026 605,256 655,694 680,913 870,056 756,855 727,397 750,000
2027 619,454 671,075 696,886 890,465 765,207 734,922 750,000
2028 633,985 686,817 713,233 911,353 773,558 742,447 750,000
2029 648,856 702,928 729,963 932,731 781,909 749,972 750,000
2030 664,077 719,417 747,086 954,610 790,260 757,497 750,000
Diesel 2016 bus price: Information provided by Transit Agency Committee, Cost subgroup.
Projection: Uses Consumer Price Index (CPI) to adjust the Amercian Public Transportation Association (APTA) historical data (2006-2015) to 2016 dollar to calculate the annual bus price increase. Annual price increase (in 2016$) is 2.35%.

CNG 2016 bus price: Information provided by Transit Agency Committee, Cost subgroup.
Projection: Uses CPI to adjust the APTA historical data (2006-2015) to 2016 dollar to calculate the annual bus price increase. Annual price increase (in 2016$) is 2.35%.

Low NOx CNG 2016 bus price: Discussed at workgroup meeting where Cummins distributor stated the incremental cost of engine alone is $15,000 and additional $5,000 estimated for some reengineering due to the bigger catalyst size.
Projection: Uses CPI to adjust the APTA historical data (2006-2015) to 2016 dollar to calculate the annual bus price increase. Annual price increase (in 2016$) is 2.35%.

Diesel hybrid 2016 bus price: Based on the Washington state contract, the median incremental cost from diesel to diesel hybrid is $210,000. https://fortress.wa.gov/ga/apps/ContractSearch/ContractSummary.aspx?c=09214.
Projection: Staff uses CPI to adjust the APTA historical data (2006-2015) to 2016 dollar to calculate the annual bus price increase. Annual price increase (in 2016$) is 2.35%.

BEB (depot charge) 2016 bus price: Based on email communication with BYD in February 2016.
Projection: Based on (1) 2016 BYD BEB price (324 kWh), (2) battery cost reduction discussion document regarding battery cost reduction (https://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/bus/battery_cost.pdf), and (3) non-battery cost bus price annual increase of
2.35% based on APTA historical data (2006-2015). Price does not reflect any economy of scale.

BEB (on-route charge) 2016 bus price: Based on email communication with Proterra in December 2015.
Assumes Proterra on-route and depot charge BEBs have the same price. Price projection is based on (1) 2016 Proterra BEB price (330 kWh), (2) battery cost reduction discussion document regarding battery cost reduction
(https://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/bus/battery_cost.pdf), and (3) non-battery cost bus price annual increase of 2.35% based on APTA historical data (2006-2015).

FCEB The FCEB price in 2016 is based on the quoted price from selected pilot projects. The bus price in 2020 is staff preliminary projection, based on a purchase volume of 40 buses. New Flyer has provided a letter to ARB in May 2014, stating that
$900,000 per bus would be feasible with an order of 40 or more buses to be delivered over a 3 year period.

Table 3 (a) - Fuel Efficiency - Fleet specific examples

Fuel Type Miles Unit
Diesel (Golden Gate Transit) 3.7 mile/DGE Fuel efficiency for diesel bus is a fleet average of Golden Gate Transit based on staff’s calculation using 2014 National Transit Database (NTD). It is taken as an example in the case study analysis. Fuel
efficiency varies with drive cycles, speed, and other factors. It can be changed when other transit agencies are used for case studies

CNG (LA Metro) 2.7 mile/DGE LA Metro assumes the fuel use for conventional CNG buses is 0.476 therm/mile, which is about 2.68 mile/DGE when the unit is converted, based on their fueling records. They also assume that the fuel use
for CNG low NOx engines will be 0.4% higher than fuel use of current CNG engines, based on certified CO2 emissions of model year 2016 Low NOx engines compared to standard engines. LA Metro Zero
and Near Zero Emission Bus Options, APTA webinar, June 30, 2016. http://www.apta.com/resources/profdev/webinars/bus-maintenance-webinars/Documents/LA%20Metro%20ZEB%20options%20FINAL
%2023jun16.pptx.

Diesel hybrid (25% higher than Golden Gate) 4.6 mile/DGE Staff assumed diesel hybrid buses have 25% improvement in fuel efficiency comparing to diesel buses, based on the report by NREL in 2016 on King County Metro Transit Hybrid Articulated Buses: Final
Evaluation Results http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy07osti/40585.pdf.

Battery electric 0.48 mile/kWh LA Metro assumes the fuel use for 40-ft electric buses to be 2.1 kWh/mile. LA Metro Zero and Near Zero Emission Bus Options, APTA webinar, June 30, 2016.
http://www.apta.com/resources/profdev/webinars/bus-maintenance-webinars/Documents/LA%20Metro%20ZEB%20options%20FINAL%2023jun16.pptx.

Fuel cell electric 6.3 mile/kg Fuel efficiency for FCEB is estimated by Energy Economy Ratio (EER) of 1.9 and it is converted to mile/kg by applying corresponding energy densities. EER is defined as the ratio of the miles traveled per unit
energy input for a fuel of interest to the miles traveled per unit energy for a reference fuel. The EER values are from LCFS staff report at https://www.arb.ca.gov/regact/2015/lcfs2015/lcfs15isor.pdf, Table
III-3.

Table 3 (b) - Energy Economy Ratio (EER) Examples for Transit Buses from LCFS
Fuel efficiency
Fuel Type EER based on EER For Advanced Clean Transit program purposes: may need finetuning for different speed ranges.
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Diesel 1 4 miles/gal From early discussions with transit agencies.
CNG 0.9 3.6 miles/DGE
Electricity 4.2 0.45 miles/kWh
Hydrogen 1.9 6.78 miles/kg

Table 4 - Fuel Prices - Diesel and Natural Gas

Diesel Natural gas

(transportation) (commercial)
Year (2016$/gal) (2016$/DGE)
2016 2.11 1.08
2017 2.40 1.13
2018 2.60 1.21
2019 2.92 1.27
2020 3.05 1.30
2021 3.16 1.31
2022 3.24 1.33
2023 3.30 1.36
2024 3.34 1.39
2025 3.41 1.42
2026 3.48 1.43
2027 3.54 1.43
2028 3.58 1.42
2029 3.64 1.43
2030 3.69 1.43
2031 3.76 1.43
2032 3.84 1.44
2033 3.92 1.44
2034 3.99 1.45
2035 4.05 1.45
2036 4.15 1.46
2037 4.20 1.46
2038 4.29 1.47
2039 4.35 1.49
2040 4.45 1.49
Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA). Annual Energy Outlook 2016. Table 3. Energy Prices by Sector and Source. Reference case for the Pacific Region. http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/tables_ref.cfm. The unit EIA reported is in 2015$/MMBtu. Staff converted 2015$/MMBtu to
2015$/DGE by using the following conversion factors: 1 MMBtu = 1055.06 MJ. Energy density for diesel is 134.47 MJ/gal, energy density for natural gas is 1.04 MJ/cubic feet, and energy density for electricity is 3.6 MJ/kWh. These energy densities are used in the LCFS regulation. Staff converts
2015 Dollar into 2016 dollar by using Consumer Price Index (CPI), CPI Detailed Report Tables (Table 24). 2016 CPI is the average of CPI from January to June 2016. Available at http://www.bls.gov/cpi/tables.htm.

Notes:
(1) According to the Transit Agency Subcommittee, the diesel fuel price transit agencies currently pay is very close to the EIA projection in the 2016 Annual Energy Outlook, which is $2.11/gallon in 2016 for the transportation sector. This value is also consistent with the median diesel fuel cost
from transit fleet response to the ARB transit fleet operations survey for diesel fuel purchased in 2015. Thus, EIA projection is used as the fuel representative fuel costs to avoid variability with different fuel purchase practices.

(2) LA Metro’s average CNG price in 2015 is $0.78/therm, which is ($0.78/therm)x(Btu/1055.06J)x(134.47MJ/gal) =$1.00/dge. The diesel energy density of 134.47MJ/gal is from LCFS staff report (https://www.arb.ca.gov/regact/2015/lcfs2015/lcfs15isor.pdf, Table III-2). This is close to the EIA
projection, $1.08 for natural gas price in the commercial sector, thus EIA projection is used as the default in this cost analysis. LA Metro data are avaialble at: LA Metro Zero and Near Zero Bus Options, APTA webinar, June 30, 2016. http://www.apta.com/resources/profdev/webinars/bus-
maintenance-webinars/Documents/LA%20Metro%20ZEB%20options%20FINAL%2023jun16.pptx.

Table 5 (a) - Electricity Costs Depend on Utility Rate and Charging Pattern (2016 costs)
Electricity Depot charge in 5- Depot charge in 10- On-route charge
hour period* hour period* (10 min)**
SCE 0.22 0.14 0.18
PGE 0.25 0.17 0.24
SDGE 0.30 0.19 0.34
SMUD 0.11 0.10 0.14
LADWP 0.14 0.10 0.20
Staff's calculation. See ARB's Battery Electric Bus Charging Cost Calculator at: https://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/bus/rate_calc.xlsm.
* Assumptions used in the calculator: 100% off-peak (80 kW charger); 100-bus fleet; 130 miles/day; 2.1 kWh/mile. Depot charge in 5-hour period means all buses charged at the same time during the billing period. Depot charge in 10-hour period means no more than 50% of buses charged at
the same time at 4-5 hours per bus.
** Assumptions used in the calculator: On-route charging up to 10/15 min (500 kW charger); 6 buses/charger; 130 miles/day; 2.1 kWh/mile.

Table 5 (b) - Electricity Price Projection - Using EIA 2016 AEO Electricity Price Annual Growth Rate

Electricity
Electricity (Transportation)-
(Transportation)- Annual Growth
Year Annual Growth Rate Year Rate
2016 2029 -0.30%
2017 5.20% 2030 -0.33%
2018 2.06% 2031 -0.13%
2019 3.17% 2032 -0.26%
2020 2.64% 2033 -0.46%
2021 2.68% 2034 -0.49%
2022 1.72% 2035 -0.63%
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2023 1.56% 2036 -0.57%
2024 0.59% 2037 -0.64%
2025 0.91% 2038 -0.23%
2026 0.63% 2039 -0.76%
2027 -0.36% 2040 -0.43%
2028 -0.13%
Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA). Annual Energy Outlook 2016. Table 3. Energy Prices by Sector and Source. Reference case for the Pacific Region. http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/tables_ref.cfm. Staff calculates the growth rate based on EIA's price projection, and applies
the growth rate to the electricity price in Table 5(a).

Table 6 - Hydrogen Price

Year Hydrogen (2016$/kg)

2016 $8.00 Sunline estimates. See NREL American Fuel Cell Bus Project Evaluation: Second Report, 2015. http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy15osti/64344.pdf. However, throughput has large effect on price.
2017 $7.00 Price projection: Staff's analysis and assumption. DOE target is $4/kg. See DOE cost targets and status at: https://www.hydrogen.energy.gov/pdfs/review16/02_satyapal_plenary_2016_amr.pdf. June 2016.
2018 $6.00
2019 $5.00
2020 onward $4.00
Note: the current AC Transit hydrogen price is higher. The hydrogen comes from three different sources, including, trucking in, electrolysis and SMR. The impact of throughput on hydrogen price cannot be reflected in the price.

Table 7 - LCFS credit revenue for selected fuels in 2016 and in 2020 at credit price $100/MT
Representative EER for transit LCFS Credit LCFS Credit
Carbon Intensity (CI) buses Revenue in 2016 Revenue in 2020
(gCO2e/MJ)
Fossil diesel 102 1 Fleets do not get credit for fossil diesel.
Renewable diesel 50 1 $0.67/DGE $0.56/DGE Value of credit typically included in final fuel price to transit fleet.
Fossil CNG 78 0.9 $0.16/DGE $0.06/DGE Can be claimed by transt fleet with CNG dispenser.
Renewable CNG 25 0.9 $0.87/DGE $0.77/DGE Value of credit typically included in final fuel price to transit fleet.
Electricity (Grid) 105 4.2 $0.11/kWh $0.10/kWh Can be claimed by transit fleet with battery electric bus.
Electricity (Solar) 0 4.2 $0.15/kWh $0.14/kWh Can be claimed by transit fleet with battery electric bus.
33% Renewable Hydrogen 88 1.9 $1.22/kg $1.03/kg Value of credit can be claimed by transit fleet if fuel producer.
100% Renewable Hydrogen 0 1.9 $2.28/kg $2.09/kg Value of credit can be claimed by transit fleet if fuel producer.
See ARB discussion document, "How LCFS credits change over time" at https://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/bus/lcfs.pdf.

Table 8 - Major Midlife Overhaul (when 7 years old)

Category Cost
CNG engine rebuild $35,000 The cost for midlife overhaul of CNG buses is based on LA Metro data. See LA Metro Zero and Near Zero Emission Bus Options, APTA webinar, June 30, 2016. http://www.apta.com/resources/profdev/webinars/bus-
maintenance-webinars/Documents/LA%20Metro%20ZEB%20options%20FINAL%2023jun16.pptx.
Diesel engine rebuild $35,000 Assumed to be same as CNG buses.
Low NOx CNG engine rebuild $38,000 In LA Metro’s analysis, it was assumed that the mid-life overhauls for CNG low NOx engine buses is $38,000/bus, which is $3,000/bus greater than current mid-life overhaul costs for standard CNG buses. Costs assumed to be
higher due to higher cost for re-building low NOx engine. See LA Metro Zero and Near Zero Emission Bus Options, APTA webinar, June 30, 2016. http://www.apta.com/resources/profdev/webinars/bus-maintenance-
webinars/Documents/LA%20Metro%20ZEB%20options%20FINAL%2023jun16.pptx.

CNG repower $100,000 Need more information. Discussion with the ACT cost subgroup.
CNG low NOx repower $115,000 Need more information.
BEB (battery replacement) $0 BYD bus (depot charge). BYD provides 12-year battery performance warranty. Hence, there is no cost for midlife overhaul cost for the transit fleet.
BEB (battery replacement) $75,000 Proterra BEB (depot charge). The costs of midlife overhaul for Proterra buses (depot charge) are based on email communication with Proterra in May 2016.
Fuel Cell $200,000 Assumes that the midlife overhaul for fuel cell system replacement would cost $200K to 300K for a 100kW fuel cell. The cost of fuel cell stack is roughly 75% of the fuel cell system. Fuel cell stack replacement cost would be
$150k to $225K. More information on fuel cell stack overhaul and any battery replacement costs for FCEBs is needed.
Diesel hybrid engine rebuild $0
Zero cost of midlife overhaul for diesel hybrid buses is assumed. NREL report about King County Metro (Washington) suggests there may be no replacement of the engine during the life of the bus. See
http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy07osti/40585.pdf.

Table 9 - Average Maintenance Costs ($/Mile)

Technology Type $/mile
Diesel Bus $0.85 Provided by Transit Agency Subcommittee (Cost subgroup) on 2/9/2016
CNG Bus $0.85 Provided by Transit Agency Subcommittee (Cost subgroup) on 2/9/2016
Hybrid Diesel $0.74 $0.11/mile maintenance cost saving by diesel hybrid buses is assumed, due to regenerative braking, as reviewed by staff from literatures. See ARB draft discussion document, "Literature Review on Transit Bus Maintenance
Cost" at https://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/bus/maintenance_cost.pdf.
BEB $0.60 $0.25/mile maintenance cost saving by BEBs over conventional buses, as claimed by bus OEMs and reviewed by staff from literatures. See ARB draft discussion document, "Literature Review on Transit Bus Maintenance Cost" at
https://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/bus/maintenance_cost.pdf.
FCEB $1.00 The regular maintenance cost for FCEB is based on $0.95/mile from AC transit most recent data, and $1.35/mile from Sunline data with $100 labor rate.

Table 10 - Infrastructure Costs

Technology Type Cost
Diesel station - It is assumed that the infrastructure already exists and no new diesel station is built.
Diesel to CNG station $6,000,000 LA Metro Division 13 fueling facility. The facility fuels approximately 175 buses. 2 million GGE/year, or 5,479 GGE/day. Clean Energy press release. 11/3/2015. https://www.cleanenergyfuels.com/press-room/clean-energy-
provides-bunkering-services-and-fuel-to-worlds-first-lng-powered-container-ships-adds-trucking-transit-and-refuse-customers-grows-with-others/. Accessed on 11/13/2016

Diesel to CNG maintenance facility $1,000,000 For 200 bus facility with 12 to 15 buses per bay. Information provided by Don Leidy from Maintenance Design Group on 5/27/2016.
BYD depot charger $0 Chargers are included in BYD bus price
Depot charger infrastructure $50,000 Installation cost varies. Staff assumes $50k for depot charger installation based on Golden Gate Transit’s bus charging study, email communication with Steve Miller, Director of Maintenance, on 8/26/2016.
Proterra on-route charger $349,000 500 kW fast charger at Foothill Transit. NREL Foothill Transit Battery Electric Bus Demonstration Results, Jan 2016. http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy16osti/65274.pdf (p. 13)

On-route charger infrastructure
BEB maintenance bay
- from diesel fleet to BEB fleet
- from CNG fleet to BEB fleet
- from diesel hybrid fleet to BEB fleet
Hydrogen station
Hydrogen maintenance bay (from diesel to
hydrogen)
Hydrogen maintenance bay upgrade (from
CNG to hydrogen)
Hydrogen maintenance bay (new built)
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$250,000
Information provided by New Flyer in March 2016: a single fast charger installation cost ranges from $160K to $340. Average is about $250,000/charger. Total $300,000 to install 2 fast chargers at Foothill Transit. NREL Foothill
Transit Battery Electric Bus Demonstration Results, Jan 2016. http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy16osti/65274.pdf (p. 13).
$2,000-$50,000 Need information. Current estimates based on needs for bus rooftop access and shop charger installation without electrical upgrade. Diagnostics software is typically included in the bus price.
$2,000-$50,000 Need information. Current estimates based on needs for bus rooftop access and shop charger installation without electrical upgrade. Diagnostics software is typically included in the bus price.
$0-$50,000 Need information. Current estimates based on needs for bus rooftop access and shop charger installation without electrical upgrade. Diagnostics software is typically included in the bus price.
$5,050,000
Larger station, introduction timeframe: after 2016; capacity at 1500 kg/day; average output at 1200 kg/day. NREL Report. M. Melaina and M. Penev, "Hydrogen Station Cost Estimates," September 2013.
http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy13osti/56412.pdf
$750,000 AC Transit Emeryville Maintenance Bay data. Provided by AC Transit to ARB staff via email on 5/17/2016.
$1,000 Information provided by CaFCP in September, 2016.
$360,000 SunLine Transit 2014 Annual Report, http://www.sunline.org/pub/images/annualreport/ANNUAL_REPORT_2014.pdf

Table 11 - Fueling Infrastructure O&M Costs

Category O&M Costs
Diesel station $0.02/dge Golden Gate Transit estimate (preliminary number). Provided by Transit Agency Subcommittee on 2/9/2016.
CNG station power cost* $0.18/dge NREL report. R. Adams and D.B. Horne. Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) Transit Bus Experience Survey. The costs were $0.13–$0.23/DGE, with an unweighted average of $0.18/DGE. The costs include energy and demand
charges, metering charges, and any penalties for peak-period operation. NREL/SR-7A2-48814. September 2010. http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy10osti/48814.pdf (p. 8)
CNG station maintenance cost* $0.27/dge NREL report. R. Adams and D.B. Horne. Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) Transit Bus Experience Survey. The range of values was $0.06-$0.23/DGE (removed $0.06/DGE) results in an unweighted average of $0.18/DGE. Work
done outside the survey suggests maintenance contracts are in the $0.2-$0.3/DGE range. NREL/SR-7A2-48814. September 2010. http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy10osti/48814.pdf (pp. 9-10)
BYD depot charger $0.02/dge BYD suggested the O&M cost for depot charger was no higher than a diesel station, which is $0.02/dge. When this value is converted to $/kWh, that is ($0.02/dge)x(gal/134.47MJ)x(3.6MJ/kWh) = $0.0005/kWh.

On-route charger $0.03/kWh Staff's calculation based on Proterra on-route charger maintenance contract provided by Foothill Transit with a fully utilized charger. The costs includes PMI labor and non-PMI costs, but do not include PMI components cost.
Hydrogen station* $200,000/year For 40 buses ($5,000 per bus per year). California Fuel Cell Partnership. A Road Map for Fuel Cell Electric Buses in California. March 2013. http://cafcp.org/sites/default/files/A Roadmap for Fuel Cell Electric Buses in
California.pdf (p. 12)
* The fueling station O&M costs would be zero if they are included in the fuel prices.

Table 12 - Infrastructure Lifespan (years)

Bus Type
Fueling Maintenance
Station/Charger Facility Need information on the lifespan of fueling and charging stations and maintenance facility
Diesel station 20
CNG station 20
Depot charger 20
On-route charger 20
Hydrogen station 20

Table 13 - HVIP funding

Category Voucher Amount*
Battery electric bus $95,000 +
ISL G Near Zero 8.9 L Engine $15,000
Low Floor Bus with ISL G NZ Engine $10,000
* Disadvantaged communities can get additional amount. See HVIP http://www.californiahvip.org/docs/HVIP_Year4_EligibleVehicles.pdf; and the Implementation Manual at http://www.californiahvip.org/docs/HVIP_Y4_Implementation%20Manual_2014-08-01.pdf.

Table 14 - Energy Density of Fuels

Fuel Type Energy Density LCFS Staff Report. http://www.arb.ca.gov/regact/2015/lcfs2015/lcfs15isor.pdf, p. III-21. Energy densities from LCFS are used in fuel unit conversion and LCFS credit calculation.
Fossil diesel (CA ULSD) 134.47 MJ/DGE
Renewable Diesel 129.65 MJ/DGE
Fossil CNG 134.47 MJ/DGE
Landfill gas as CNG 134.47 MJ/DGE
Electricity 3.6 MJ/kWh 1 kWh = 3.6/134.47 = 0.027 DGE
Hydrogen SMR (33% renewable) 120 MJ/kg 1 kg H2 = 120/134.47 = 0.89 DGE