cSummary of Review of SOP of Cascade Reservoirs

- The formal function of Saguling and Cirata is single purpose only: hydropower
generation while Djuanda reservoir has a multi-purpose function including water
supply, hydropower generation and flood management
- Early January of each year, a SOP is determined for that year. The SOP for 2010
was signed on 12 January 2010 by the Coordinator of the SPKTPA, the General
Manager of PT PLN and the Director for Technical Affairs of PJT-II.
- The SOP for 2010 is based on the results of a spreadsheet program.
- The method distributes the total live storage of water in the three reservoirs over the
three reservoirs according the so called equal sharing principle, in which the
distribution of the live storage over the three reservoirs is fixed during each month.
While determining this distribution of water between the reservoirs, downstream
water demand has to be met and some water level requirements have to be followed.
- The method differentiates between a normal year, a wet year and a dry year, and
results in reservoir operation rule curves for each of these hydrological years, that all
start at the reservoir level that was reached on 1 January of that year.
- A dry year is defined as a year in which during each month of the year the local
inflow is the average of a 10% and a 40% dry month (exceedance frequency).
- To define a normal year, for each month the 50% local inflow value is selected.
- A wet year is defined as a year in which during each month the local inflow is the
average of a 60% and a 90% wet month.
- Elements of the method laid down in the spreadsheet program include:
1. The water level in each of the 3 reservoirs as measured on 1 January forms
the starting point for determining the normal, dry and wet rule curves.
2. For each reservoir a relation between elevation and volume / surface area.
3. For each month the downstream water demand.
4. For each month the evaporation from reservoirs.
5. For each month the expected local inflow in the each reservoir (with a
distinction between a normal, dry and wet year).
- In summary, the spreadsheet follows the following method:
1. The spreadsheet starts with the actual water level in the reservoirs on 1
January.
2. Next, for each month the spreadsheet distributes live storage over the cascade
reservoirs according to fixed percentages, taking into account inflows and
downstream water demand for a normal, dry and wet year.
3. Based on the resulting volumes and water levels, the amount of generated
hydropower is calculated.
4. Based on the hydropower generated, the firm power generation capacity is
calculated.
- For a normal year and for a dry year, the following maximum levels are taken into
account for every month of the year:
 Saguling: maximum level 642.5 m (spilling at 643.0 m) (flood storage 25 Mcm)
  Cirata: maximum level 219.5 m (spilling at 220.0 m) (flood storage 29 Mcm)
 Djuanda: maximum level 106.5 m (spilling at 107.0 m) (flood storage 41 Mcm)
The total mandatory flood storage space in a normal year amounts to 95 Mcm, which
is equivalent to only 3.6% of the combined live storage capacity of 2,653 Mcm.
- For a wet year the following maximum levels are taken into account for every month
of the year:
 Saguling: maximum level 642.0 m (spilling at 643.0 m) (flood storage 50 Mcm)
 Cirata: maximum level 219.5 m (spilling at 220.0 m) (flood storage 29 Mcm)
 Djuanda: maximum level 106.5 m (spilling at 107.0 m) (flood storage 41 Mcm)
The total mandatory flood storage space in a wet year amounts to 120 Mcm, which is
equivalent to only 4.5% of the combined live storage capacity.
- The method to determine the SOP maintains the following numbers for the principle
of ‘equal sharing’, the fixed distribution of the live storage over the three reservoirs:
21% for Saguling, 29% for Cirata and 50% for Djuanda.
- To discuss and decide about daily operation of the reservoirs, the SPKTPA
(Sekretariat Pelaksana Koordinasi Tata Pengaturan Air sungai Citarum) meets on a
monthly basis, or more frequently when required. Membership of the SPKTPA
includes PJT-II, PT PLN, PT Indonesia Power (Saguling), PT PJB (Cirata), BMKG,
Puslitbang Pengairan, and DG SDA (Water Resources).
- Application of the SOP in the day-to-day operation requires the selection of one of
the three sets of rule curves. In practice the normal rule curve forms the basis for the
daily operation of the reservoir.
- In a dry year the demand is amounts to 4.33 Bcm but the inflow in Djuanda is (only)
3.83 Bcm. In a dry year, the SOP sets the supply by Djuanda at 4.28 Bcm including a
10% reduction of the supply in the second half of the year. The rule curve for a dry
year stipulates that in the months July to December the supply of water will be 10%
smaller than the downstream water demand.
- For wet conditions, the SOP stipulates that the reservoir level should be kept 0.5 m
below the spilling level of the three reservoirs (and 1.0 m for only Saguling in case
the rule curve for a wet year is followed). If the level is above this flood control level,
the turbines will be used at maximum capacity, and if needed also the bottom gate
will be used. The SOP-curve for wet years provides a target for how to operate the
dams.
- No implementation rule that specifies when to open the bottom gate (Hollow Jet
Valve) in Djuanda in order to bring the reservoir levels down in addition to water
passing the turbines. Lacking implementation rules on how to handle in case the
reservoir levels are higher than the SOP-curves, that is up to the SPKTPA meeting to
decide on a case-by-case basis.
- Implementation rules for the daily reservoir operation in case the reservoir levels are
higher than the SOP curve.
1. If the reservoir level is above the flood control curve, power generation is
maximized and if necessary the bottom gate is also used.
2. If the level is between the flood control curve and the power target curve, power
generation is maximized.
 3. If the level is between the power target curve and firm storage curve, firm power
is generated.
4. If the level is below the firm target curve, the downstream water supply is 10%
less than the downstream water demand in that month.
The downstream demand will be supplied at all reservoir levels except when the level
is below the firm target curve. The operation rules and implementation rules specified
in the above are applied for all three reservoirs.
- Use the SOP for wet years as flood control curve in daily operation: The maximum
turbine capacity would be used earlier, but on top of that also the Djuanda bottom
gate would be used considerably earlier in the year. This would have resulted in
lower reservoir levels, and the spillway would not have been used.
- A larger role for flood control in determining the SOP: This rule implies that for flood
control a volume should be reserved that is at least equal to two times the volume of
water that the local inflow brings in the reservoir with a probability of occurrence of
50% in every year (return period 2 years).
- Effects of integrated operation of the cascade reservoirs: It is simulated that Cirata
(and if necessary also Saguling) would release additional amounts of water in case
Djuanda would request so. The results of this analysis show that downstream water
supply shortages (which in the current situation are already relatively small) could be
reduced, while flood control, overall hydropower generation and end-of-year water
levels are not negatively influenced.

Recommendation (by TA 7189-INO Package B)

- Flood control plays only a minor role in the method to determine the SOP. The
mandatory flood control volume in a wet year is only 4.5% of the total live storage
volume, and 3.6% for both a normal and dry year. This needs to be re-considered.
Recommendation:
1. To determine flood control curves on the basis of a thorough hydrological
analysis that should result in flood volumes that can flow in each of the
reservoirs in each month of the year as a function of return periods
2. To balance the amount of flood storage required in the reservoirs with
downstream flood damage in case of spilling, with the ability to meet
downstream water demand, and with hydropower generation.
3. To re-consider using the actual water level on 1 January as a starting point for
determining the SOP and instead use a fixed level, to be based on a thorough
flood control analysis.
4. To determine hydropower target curves on the basis of a true optimization of
hydropower benefits, taking the flood control curve as a constraint.
5. To evaluate in detail whether the single rule of a 10% reduction of downstream
supply in case the levels are below the dry-year curve should be replaced by a
few hedging rules, that specify the reduction in supply depending on reservoir
levels (for example 5% if the level is only slightly below the firm storage curve,
10% in case of a moderate shortage, and 20% in case the reservoir levels are
substantially lower than the firm storage curve.
- The implementation of the SOP in daily reservoir operation. It remains very
difficult if not impossible to know which curve to choose for the year to come. In
practice, the rule curve for a normal year is chosen. This needs to be reconsidered,
and this should be done in concert with re-considering the philosophy behind the
method to determine the SOP of having separate curves for a normal, dry and wet
year.
Recommendation:
1. To replace the method of determining a SOP for a normal, a dry, a wet year
by determining a SOP that is based on a different philosophy, namely a set of
three rule curves: a flood control curve, a hydropower target curve, and a firm
storage curve.
2. To detail operation rules for the use of these curves.
3. In case the reservoir levels are higher than the flood control level (0,5 m
below the spilling level in all reservoirs in a normal, dry and wet year; with 1,0
m for Saguling in a wet year): use the full turbine capacity and if necessary
the bottom gate in order to maintain this flood control level.
4. In case the reservoir levels are between the flood control level and the normal
(or wet or dry) SOP-level. We recommend keeping in place the operational
rule that seems to exist already, It needs to detail operational rules for that
situation. The essence of those operational rules should be that in such case
power generation is maximized (but the bottom gate is not used).

- The implementation of the SOP during the spring of 2010: The hydrological
conditions during the spring 2010 were exceptional: the spring of 2010 was the
wettest of all the years on record since 1920. Given the relatively small flood control
volumes (high flood control levels) maintained in the SOP, and lacking clear
procedures for how to implement the SOP in case the levels are between the normal
or wet year SOP-curve and the flood control level, the outflow via the turbines was
only maximized at a relatively late stage, and the bottom gate was opened also at a
relatively late stage. With the late start of full capacity use of the turbines and the late
opening of the bottom gate, the Djuanda spillway was used during two intervals. With
a peak daily total outflow of Djuanda of some 700 m3/s, and combined with high
flows in the Cikao and Cibeet rivers, flooding occurred in parts of the city of
Karawang.
Recommendation:
The use of stricter implementation rules for the SOP, and the use of a stricter
flood control curve would result in increased reservoir release early on (the
combined capacity of the Djuanda turbines and bottom gate amount to some
470 m3/s), and less use of the spillway.
- The downstream discharge capacity of the Citarum river: The discharge capacity
of the Citarum river in the vicinity of Karawang is reportedly currently only 1,200 m 3/s
of the 1,600 m3/s design capacity of this river stretch.
Recommendation:
1. To review the choice to have a design capacity of 1,600 m3/s for the Citarum
river stretch near Karawang, and to link this choice to the outcome of the
recommended review of the flood control curves for the reservoirs. A detailed
analysis for the flood control curves will lead to a frequency distribution of
 downstream flows of Djuanda. Combined with statistics about the flow of the
Cikao and Cibeet rivers, this will lead to conclusions about the required
Citarum river discharge capacity.
2. To base any decision on river widening or deepening project aimed at
restoring or enlarging the discharge capacity of the Citarum river near
Karawang on the outcome of this recommended flood control analysis.
- Integrated water management in the Citarum basin: The single-purpose function
of Saguling and Cirata, and the multi-purpose function of Djuanda hampers truly
integrated operation of the cascade. As consequence of the single-purpose function
of Saguling and Cirata, these reservoirs have no formal flood control task, nor do
they have a formal task to assist in downstream water supply in extremely dry years.
Emergency ruling to avoid disasters can potentially be applied to request Saguling
and Cirata to assist downstream water supply in extremely dry periods, but for flood
situations such emergency ruling would not be effective: flood management requires
reservoirs to have flood control volume available before an emergency situation is
recognized.
Recommendation:
1. A formal task of Saguling and Cirata in flood control and also in meeting
downstream water demand should be considered.
2. To carry out a thorough analysis of the benefits and costs and institutional
aspects of fully integrated reservoir operation for the cascade, taking into
account all interests involved, and possibly change the function of Saguling
and Cirata pending the outcome of this analysis.
- Other issues: inflow time series and reservoir sedimentation: Over the last
years, the reservoirs have lost an important part of their storage capacity due to
sedimentation. This strongly reduces the life-time of the major investments in the
three reservoirs, and threatens the livelihood of millions of people that depend its
functions of water supply, power generation and flood control. The loss of storage
volume is most likely partly linked to current land-use practice in the watersheds. The
societal costs of the loss of storage capacity deserves to be linked to the costs of
preventing soil erosion due to improper land-use in the watersheds. The monitoring
system to measure inflows in the reservoirs is in a deplorable state. Only the inflows
of Saguling are really measured (at Nanjung), while the local inflows in Cirata and
Djuanda are only calculated on the basis the questionable method of using measured
reservoir levels and estimated flows out of the reservoirs.
Recommendation:
1. To accurately determine the currently available reservoir volumes, and to link
societal cost of the loss of storage volume to the costs of preventing soil
erosion due to improper land-use in the watersheds.
2. Urgently needs to implement an extensive, well-maintained, and well-
operated monitoring system. Long and reliable inflow series are of crucial
importance to optimize operation rules (especially regarding flood control and
low flow situations) and water management in general.
3. A thorough upgrade of the flow measurement stations that are used to
continuously measure the local inflow in the three reservoirs.
4. To thoroughly review the relations used to calculate the flows via turbines and
bottom gates.
5. To thoroughly review the historic time series for local inflow in the three
reservoirs, and possibly extend the series based on rainfall and flow
measurements carried out in the period prior to 1920