Month JFC (Php) MAXS (Php) Month JFC (Php) MAXS (Php) Month JFC (Php)

Sep-16 247 28.7 Sep-17 243.8 20.15 Sep-18 257

Oct-16 238 27 Oct-17 249 19.3 Oct-18 276
Nov-16 215.8 25.7 Nov-17 252 18.02 Nov-18 278.4
Dec-16 194 25 Dec-17 253 18.6 Dec-18 291.8
Jan-17 205.6 26.95 Jan-18 284.8 17.98 Jan-19 316
Feb-17 201.8 26.7 Feb-18 298.4 16.5 Feb-19 307.8
Mar-17 197.5 26.3 Mar-18 299 16.04 Mar-19 317
Apr-17 210 23.25 Apr-18 285 14.48 Apr-19 304.6
May-17 204.6 18.72 May-18 274 12.78 May-19 288
Jun-17 204 18.92 Jun-18 263 11.4 Jun-19 281.8
Jul-17 225 19.8 Jul-18 270 12.86 Jul-19 259
Aug-17 238.2 19.86 Aug-18 288 13.2 Aug-19 237.8
MAXS (Php) Year Quarter Sales (millions of Php) Stock Price (JFC
11.7 2016 1 6.6 247
10.76 2 7.8 238
9.98 3 11.4 215.8
10.26 4 14.1 194
12.3 2017 1 7.5 205.6
12.22 2 12.3 201.8
13.8 3 18.6 197.5
15 4 17.7 210
12.76 2018 1 9.8 204.6
13.8 2 16.4 204
14 3 22.5 225
13.88 4 19.8 238.2
243.8
249
252
253
284.8
298.4
299
285
274
263
270
288
257
276
278.4
291.8
316
307.8
317
304.6
288
281.8
Inflation Rate (%) Peso Per US Doll PSEi
1.7 47.43 7,629.73
1.8 48.35 7,404.80
2.1 49.16 6,781.20
2.2 49.82 6,840.64
2.5 49.74 7,229.66
3.1 49.96 7,212.09
3.1 50.28 7,311.72
3.2 49.86 7,661.01
2.9 49.86 7,837.12
2.5 49.85 7,843.16
2.4 50.63 8,018.05
2.6 50.87 7,958.57
3 51 8,171.43
3.1 51.34 8,365.26
3 51.03 8,254.03
2.9 50.39 8,558.42
3.4 50.51 8,764.01
3.8 51.79 8,475.29
4.3 52.07 7,979.83
4.5 52.1 7,819.25
4.6 52.19 7,497.17
5.2 53.05 7,193.68
5.7 53.43 7,672.00
6.4 53.27 7,855.71
6.7 53.94 7,276.82
6.7 54 7,140.29
6 52.81 7,367.85
5.1 52.77 7,466.02
4.4 52.47 8,007.48
3.8 52.19 7,705.49
3.3 52.41 7,920.93
3 52.11 7,952.72
3.2 52.26 7,970.02
2.7 51.8 7,999.71
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.670629
R Square 0.449744
Adjusted R 0.432548
Standard E 28.36395
Observatio 34

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 21041.83 21041.83 26.15473 1.43E-05
Residual 32 25744.43 804.5135
Total 33 46786.26

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept -564.999 160.9292 -3.51085 0.001352 -892.801 -237.197 -892.801 -237.197
Peso Per U 16.03097 3.134618 5.114169 1.43E-05 9.645958 22.41597 9.645958 22.41597
316.7041
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.400219
R Square 0.160175
Adjusted R 0.13393
Standard E 35.04117
Observatio 34

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 7493.985 7493.985 6.103172 0.019009
Residual 32 39292.28 1227.884
Total 33 46786.26

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 10.09527 100.3836 0.100567 0.920522 -194.379 214.57 -194.379 214.57
PSEi 0.031985 0.012947 2.47046 0.019009 0.005613 0.058358 0.005613 0.058358
272.3751
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.482607
R Square 0.232909
Adjusted R 0.208938
Standard E 33.48942
Observatio 34

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 10896.95 10896.95 9.716047 0.003844
Residual 32 35889.32 1121.541
Total 33 46786.26

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 210.031 16.3191 12.87026 3.39E-14 176.7901 243.2719 176.7901 243.2719
Inflation R 12.96114 4.158134 3.117057 0.003844 4.4913 21.43098 4.4913 21.43098
248.9144
Forecasting Simple Linear Regression
Enter
Enter past
past demands
demands in
in the
the data
data area.
area. Do
Do not
not change
change the
the time
time
4 seasons period
period numbers!
numbers!

Data
Period Demand (y) Time (x) Average Ratio Seasonal Smoothed Unadjusted
Period 1 6.6 1 0.6108602 10.804436 9.0127379
Period 2 7.8 2 0.9393248 8.3038369 9.8405624
Period 3 11.4 3 9.975 10.0875 1.1301115 1.2148374 9.3839717 10.668387
Period 4 14.1 4 10.2 10.7625 1.3101045 1.2406602 11.364917 11.496211
Period 5 7.5 5 11.325 12.225 0.6134969 0.6108602 12.277769 12.324036
Period 6 12.3 6 13.125 13.575 0.9060773 0.9393248 13.094512 13.15186
Period 7 18.6 7 14.025 14.3125 1.2995633 1.2148374 15.310691 13.979685
Period 8 17.7 8 14.6 15.1125 1.1712159 1.2406602 14.266598 14.80751
Period 9 9.8 9 15.625 16.1125 0.6082234 0.6108602 16.042951 15.635334
Period 10 16.4 10 16.6 16.8625 0.9725723 0.9393248 17.459349 16.463159
Period 11 22.5 11 17.125 1.2148374 18.520997 17.290983
Period 12 19.8 12 1.2406602 15.959245 18.118808

Average Intercept 8.1849134

Slope 0.8278245

Ratios
Season 1 Season 2 Season 3 Season 4
1.1301115 1.3101045
0.613496933 0.9060773 1.2995633 1.1712159
0.608223429 0.9725723
Average 0.610860181 0.9393248 1.2148374 1.2406602 SUM= 4.0056826

Forecasts
Period Unadjusted Seasonal Adjusted
13 18.94663211 0.6108602 11.573743
14 19.77445663 0.9393248 18.574638
15 20.60228115 1.2148374 25.028422
16 21.43010567 1.2406602 26.587479
 Forecasts and Error Analysis
Adjusted Error |Error| Error^2 Abs Pct Err
5.5055227 1.0944773 1.0944773 1.1978806 16.58%
9.2434844 -1.4434844 1.4434844 2.0836473 18.51%
12.960356 -1.5603557 1.5603557 2.4347098 13.69%
14.262892 -0.1628921 0.1628921 0.0265338 01.16%
7.5282628 -0.0282628 0.0282628 0.0007988 00.38%
12.353869 -0.0538689 0.0538689 0.0029019 00.44%
16.983044 1.6169555 1.6169555 2.6145452 08.69%
18.371088 -0.6710878 0.6710878 0.4503588 03.79%
9.551003 0.248997 0.248997 0.0619995 02.54%
15.464253 0.9357467 0.9357467 0.8756219 05.71%
21.005733 1.4942667 1.4942667 2.232833 06.64%
22.479284 -2.6792835 2.6792835 7.1785603 13.53%
Total -1.208792 11.989678 19.160391 91.65%
-0.1007327 0.9991399 1.5966992 07.64%
Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 1.7870082
Forecasting Simple Linear Regression
IfIf this
this isis trend
trend analysis
analysis then
then simply
simply enter
enter the
the past
past demands
demands in in the
the demand
demand
column.
column. IfIf this this isis causal
causal regression
regression then
then enter
enter the
the y,x
y,x pairs
pairs with
with yy first
first and
and enter
enter
aa new value of x at the bottom in order to
new value of x at the bottom in order to forecast y.forecast y.

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis

Period Demand (y) Period(x) Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
Period 1 247 1 219.63462 27.365385 27.365385 748.86428 11.08%
Period 2 238 2 218.81469 19.185315 19.185315 368.0763 08.06%
Period 3 215.8 3 217.99476 -2.1947552 2.1947552 4.8169506 01.02%
Period 4 194 4 217.17483 -23.174825 23.174825 537.07252 11.95%
Period 5 205.6 5 216.3549 -10.754895 10.754895 115.66777 05.23%
Period 6 201.8 6 215.53497 -13.734965 13.734965 188.64926 06.81%
Period 7 197.5 7 214.71503 -17.215035 17.215035 296.35743 08.72%
Period 8 210 8 213.8951 -3.8951049 3.8951049 15.171842 01.85%
Period 9 204.6 9 213.07517 -8.4751748 8.4751748 71.828588 04.14%
Period 10 204 10 212.25524 -8.2552448 8.2552448 68.149066 04.05%
Period 11 225 11 211.43531 13.564685 13.564685 184.00069 06.03%
Period 12 238.2 12 210.61538 27.584615 27.584615 760.91101 11.58%
Total 2.558E-13 175.4 3359.5657 80.51%
Intercept 220.4545455 Average 2.1316E-14 14.616667 279.96381 06.71%
Slope -0.81993007 Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 18.329118
Forecast 209.7954545 13
Correlation -0.1667926
Coefficient of determination 0.0278198
 Regression
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Column B Linear (Column B)
Forecasting Simple Linear Regression
IfIf this
this isis trend
trend analysis
analysis then
then simply
simply enter
enter the
the past
past demands
demands in in the
the demand
demand
column.
column. IfIf this this isis causal
causal regression
regression then
then enter
enter the
the y,x
y,x pairs
pairs with
with yy first
first and
and enter
enter
aa new value of x at the bottom in order to
new value of x at the bottom in order to forecast y.forecast y.

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis

Period Demand (y) Period(x) Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
Period 1 247 1 211.52628 35.473724 35.473724 1258.3851 14.36%
Period 2 238 2 214.13224 23.867765 23.867765 569.6702 10.03%
Period 3 215.8 3 216.73819 -0.9381939 0.9381939 0.8802078 00.43%
Period 4 194 4 219.34415 -25.344153 25.344153 642.32608 13.06%
Period 5 205.6 5 221.95011 -16.350112 16.350112 267.32615 07.95%
Period 6 201.8 6 224.55607 -22.75607 22.75607 517.83874 11.28%
Period 7 197.5 7 227.16203 -29.662029 29.662029 879.83597 15.02%
Period 8 210 8 229.76799 -19.767988 19.767988 390.77335 09.41%
Period 9 204.6 9 232.37395 -27.773947 27.773947 771.39212 13.57%
Period 10 204 10 234.97991 -30.979906 30.979906 959.75455 15.19%
Period 11 225 11 237.58586 -12.585864 12.585864 158.40398 05.59%
Period 12 238.2 12 240.19182 -1.9918233 1.9918233 3.9673599 00.84%
Period 13 243.8 13 242.79778 1.0022179 1.0022179 1.0044408 00.41%
Period 14 249 14 245.40374 3.5962591 3.5962591 12.93308 01.44%
Period 15 252 15 248.0097 3.9903003 3.9903003 15.922496 01.58%
Period 16 253 16 250.61566 2.3843415 2.3843415 5.6850843 00.94%
Period 17 284.8 17 253.22162 31.578383 31.578383 997.19425 11.09%
Period 18 298.4 18 255.82758 42.572424 42.572424 1812.4113 14.27%
Period 19 299 19 258.43353 40.566465 40.566465 1645.6381 13.57%
Period 20 285 20 261.03949 23.960506 23.960506 574.10586 08.41%
Period 21 274 21 263.64545 10.354547 10.354547 107.21665 03.78%
Period 22 263 22 266.25141 -3.2514114 3.2514114 10.571676 01.24%
Period 23 270 23 268.85737 1.1426298 1.1426298 1.3056028 00.42%
Period 24 288 24 271.46333 16.536671 16.536671 273.46149 05.74%
Period 25 257 25 274.06929 -17.069288 17.069288 291.36059 06.64%
Period 26 276 26 276.67525 -0.6752467 0.6752467 0.4559581 00.24%
Period 27 278.4 27 279.28121 -0.8812055 0.8812055 0.7765231 00.32%
Period 28 291.8 28 281.88716 9.9128357 9.9128357 98.264311 03.40%
Period 29 316 29 284.49312 31.506877 31.506877 992.68329 09.97%
Period 30 307.8 30 287.09908 20.700918 20.700918 428.52801 06.73%
Period 31 317 31 289.70504 27.294959 27.294959 745.0148 08.61%
Period 32 304.6 32 292.311 12.289 12.289 151.01953 04.03%
Period 33 288 33 294.91696 -6.9169584 6.9169584 47.844313 02.40%
Period 34 281.8 34 297.52292 -15.722917 15.722917 247.21013 05.58%
Period 35 259 35 300.12888 -41.128876 41.128876 1691.5844 15.88%
Period 36 237.8 36 302.73483 -64.934835 64.934835 4216.5328 27.31%
Total 9.9476E-13 677.46165 20789.278 270.74%
Intercept 208.9203175 Average 2.7632E-14 18.818379 577.47996 07.52%
Slope 2.605958816 Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 24.727502
Forecast 305.3407937 37
Correlation 0.7478579
Coefficient of determination 0.5592914
 Regression
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Column B Linear (Column B)
Forecasting Simple linear regression
IfIf this
this isis trend
trend analysis
analysis then
then simply
simply enter
enter the
the past
past demands
demands in in the
the demand
demand
column.
column. IfIf this this isis causal
causal regression
regression then
then enter
enter the
the y,x
y,x pairs
pairs with
with yy first
first and
and enter
enter
aa new value of x at the bottom in order to
new value of x at the bottom in order to forecast y.forecast y.

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis

Period Demand (y) Period(x) Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
Period 1 28.7 1 25.674114 3.0258859 3.0258859 9.1559854 10.54%
Period 2 27 2 25.204911 1.7950892 1.7950892 3.2223454 06.65%
Period 3 25.7 3 24.735707 0.9642926 0.9642926 0.9298602 03.75%
Period 4 25 4 24.266504 0.7334959 0.7334959 0.5380163 02.93%
Period 5 26.95 5 23.797301 3.1526993 3.1526993 9.9395127 11.70%
Period 6 26.7 6 23.328097 3.3719026 3.3719026 11.369727 12.63%
Period 7 26.3 7 22.858894 3.441106 3.441106 11.84121 13.08%
Period 8 23.25 8 22.389691 0.8603093 0.8603093 0.7401321 03.70%
Period 9 18.72 9 21.920487 -3.2004873 3.2004873 10.243119 17.10%
Period 10 18.92 10 21.451284 -2.531284 2.531284 6.4073987 13.38%
Period 11 19.8 11 20.982081 -1.1820807 1.1820807 1.3973147 05.97%
Period 12 19.86 12 20.512877 -0.6528773 0.6528773 0.4262488 03.29%
Period 13 20.15 13 20.043674 0.106326 0.106326 0.0113052 00.53%
Period 14 19.3 14 19.574471 -0.2744706 0.2744706 0.0753341 01.42%
Period 15 18.02 15 19.105267 -1.0852673 1.0852673 1.177805 06.02%
Period 16 18.6 16 18.636064 -0.0360639 0.0360639 0.0013006 00.19%
Period 17 17.98 17 18.166861 -0.1868606 0.1868606 0.0349169 01.04%
Period 18 16.5 18 17.697657 -1.1976572 1.1976572 1.4343828 07.26%
Period 19 16.04 19 17.228454 -1.1884539 1.1884539 1.4124226 07.41%
Period 20 14.48 20 16.759251 -2.2792505 2.2792505 5.194983 15.74%
Period 21 12.78 21 16.290047 -3.5100472 3.5100472 12.320431 27.47%
Period 22 11.4 22 15.820844 -4.4208438 4.4208438 19.54386 38.78%
Period 23 12.86 23 15.35164 -2.4916405 2.4916405 6.2082724 19.38%
Period 24 13.2 24 14.882437 -1.6824372 1.6824372 2.8305948 12.75%
Period 25 11.7 25 14.413234 -2.7132338 2.7132338 7.3616377 23.19%
Period 26 10.76 26 13.94403 -3.1840305 3.1840305 10.13805 29.59%
Period 27 9.98 27 13.474827 -3.4948271 3.4948271 12.213817 35.02%
Period 28 10.26 28 13.005624 -2.7456238 2.7456238 7.5384499 26.76%
Period 29 12.3 29 12.53642 -0.2364204 0.2364204 0.0558946 01.92%
Period 30 12.22 30 12.067217 0.1527829 0.1527829 0.0233426 01.25%
Period 31 13.8 31 11.598014 2.2019863 2.2019863 4.8487435 15.96%
Period 32 15 32 11.12881 3.8711896 3.8711896 14.986109 25.81%
Period 33 12.76 33 10.659607 2.100393 2.100393 4.4116506 16.46%
Period 34 13.8 34 10.190404 3.6095963 3.6095963 13.029186 26.16%
Period 35 14 35 9.7212003 4.2787997 4.2787997 18.308127 30.56%
Period 36 13.88 36 9.251997 4.628003 4.628003 21.418412 33.34%
Total -1.599E-14 76.587715 230.7899 508.72%
Intercept 26.14331746 Average -4.441E-16 2.1274365 6.4108305 14.13%
Slope -0.46920335 Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 2.6053672
Forecast 8.782793651 37
Correlation -0.887413
Coefficient of determination 0.7875018
 Regression
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Column B Linear (Column B)
Forecasting Simple linear regression
IfIf this
this isis trend
trend analysis
analysis then
then simply
simply enter
enter the
the past
past demands
demands in in the
the demand
demand
column.
column. IfIf this this isis causal
causal regression
regression then
then enter
enter the
the y,x
y,x pairs
pairs with
with yy first
first and
and enter
enter
aa new value of x at the bottom in order to
new value of x at the bottom in order to forecast y.forecast y.

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis

Period Demand (y) Period(x) Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
Period 1 28.7 1 28.762179 -0.0621795 0.0621795 0.0038663 00.22%
Period 2 27 2 27.879662 -0.879662 0.879662 0.7738052 03.26%
Period 3 25.7 3 26.997145 -1.2971445 1.2971445 1.6825839 05.05%
Period 4 25 4 26.114627 -1.114627 1.114627 1.2423934 04.46%
Period 5 26.95 5 25.23211 1.7178904 1.7178904 2.9511476 06.37%
Period 6 26.7 6 24.349592 2.3504079 2.3504079 5.5244174 08.80%
Period 7 26.3 7 23.467075 2.8329254 2.8329254 8.0254664 10.77%
Period 8 23.25 8 22.584557 0.6654429 0.6654429 0.4428142 02.86%
Period 9 18.72 9 21.70204 -2.9820396 2.9820396 8.8925603 15.93%
Period 10 18.92 10 20.819522 -1.8995221 1.8995221 3.6081844 10.04%
Period 11 19.8 11 19.937005 -0.1370047 0.1370047 0.0187703 00.69%
Period 12 19.86 12 19.054487 0.8055128 0.8055128 0.6488509 04.06%
Total -1.066E-14 16.744359 33.81486 72.51%
Intercept 29.64469697 Average -8.882E-16 1.3953632 2.817905 06.04%
Slope -0.88251748 Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 1.8388817
Forecast 18.1719697 13
Correlation -0.8758407
Coefficient of determination 0.7670969
 Regression
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Column B Linear (Column B)
Forecasting Simple Linear Regression
Enter
Enter alpha
alpha (between
(between 00 and and 1),
1), enter
enter the
the past
past demands
demands in in the
the shaded
shaded column
column then
then enter
enter aa
starting
starting forecast.
forecast. IfIf the
the starting
starting forecast
forecast isis not
not in
in the
the first
first period
period then
then delete
delete the
the error
error analysis
analysis for
for
all
all rows
rows above
above the
the starting
starting forecast.
forecast.
Alpha 0.8
Data Forecasts and Error Analysis
Period Demand Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
Period 1 28.7 28.7 0 0 0 00.00%
Period 2 27 28.7 -1.7 1.7 2.89 06.30%
Period 3 25.7 27.34 -1.64 1.64 2.6896 06.38%
Period 4 25 26.028 -1.028 1.028 1.056784 04.11%
Period 5 26.95 25.2056 1.7444 1.7444 3.0429314 06.47%
Period 6 26.7 26.60112 0.09888 0.09888 0.0097773 00.37%
Period 7 26.3 26.680224 -0.380224 0.380224 0.1445703 01.45%
Period 8 23.25 26.376045 -3.1260448 3.1260448 9.7721561 13.45%
Period 9 18.72 23.875209 -5.155209 5.155209 26.576179 27.54%
Period 10 18.92 19.751042 -0.8310418 0.8310418 0.6906305 04.39%
Period 11 19.8 19.086208 0.7137916 0.7137916 0.5094985 03.61%
Period 12 19.86 19.657242 0.2027583 0.2027583 0.0411109 01.02%
Period 13 20.15 19.819448 0.3305517 0.3305517 0.1092644 01.64%
Period 14 19.3 20.08389 -0.7838897 0.7838897 0.614483 04.06%
Period 15 18.02 19.456778 -1.4367779 1.4367779 2.0643308 07.97%
Period 16 18.6 18.307356 0.2926444 0.2926444 0.0856408 01.57%
Period 17 17.98 18.541471 -0.5614711 0.5614711 0.3152498 03.12%
Period 18 16.5 18.092294 -1.5922942 1.5922942 2.5354009 09.65%
Period 19 16.04 16.818459 -0.7784588 0.7784588 0.6059982 04.85%
Period 20 14.48 16.195692 -1.7156918 1.7156918 2.9435982 11.85%
Period 21 12.78 14.823138 -2.0431384 2.0431384 4.1744143 15.99%
Period 22 11.4 13.188628 -1.7886277 1.7886277 3.1991889 15.69%
Period 23 12.86 11.757726 1.1022745 1.1022745 1.215009 08.57%
Period 24 13.2 12.639545 0.5604549 0.5604549 0.3141097 04.25%
Period 25 11.7 13.087909 -1.387909 1.387909 1.9262915 11.86%
Period 26 10.76 11.977582 -1.2175818 1.2175818 1.4825055 11.32%
Period 27 9.98 11.003516 -1.0235164 1.0235164 1.0475857 10.26%
Period 28 10.26 10.184703 0.0752967 0.0752967 0.0056696 00.73%
Period 29 12.3 10.244941 2.0550593 2.0550593 4.2232689 16.71%
Period 30 12.22 11.888988 0.3310119 0.3310119 0.1095689 02.71%
Period 31 13.8 12.153798 1.6462024 1.6462024 2.7099823 11.93%
Period 32 15 13.47076 1.5292405 1.5292405 2.3385764 10.19%
Period 33 12.76 14.694152 -1.9341519 1.9341519 3.7409436 15.16%
Period 34 13.8 13.14683 0.6531696 0.6531696 0.4266306 04.73%
Period 35 14 13.669366 0.3306339 0.3306339 0.1093188 02.36%
Period 36 13.88 13.933873 -0.0538732 0.0538732 0.0029023 0.00388136
Total -18.511532 41.844271 83.72317 262.65%
Average -0.5142092 1.1623409 2.3256436 07.30% Fo
Bias MAD MSE MAPE 35
SE 1.5692183
Next period 13.89077464 30

25

20
Value

15

10
 30

25

20

Value
15

10

0
1 3 5 7 9 11 1

2
 Forecasting
35

30

25

20
Value

15

10
 30

25

20
Value

15

10

0
1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 15 17 1 9 2 1 23 25 2 7 2 9 31 33 3 5

Time

28.7 28.7
Forecasting Exponential smoothing
Enter
Enter alpha
alpha (between
(between 00 and and 1),
1), enter
enter the
the past
past demands
demands in in the
the shaded
shaded column
column then
then enter
enter aa
starting
starting forecast.
forecast. IfIf the
the starting
starting forecast
forecast isis not
not in
in the
the first
first period
period then
then delete
delete the
the error
error analysis
analysis for
for
all
all rows
rows above
above the
the starting
starting forecast.
forecast.
Alpha 0.3
Data Forecasts and Error Analysis
Period Demand Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
Period 1 28.7 28.7 0 0 0 00.00% F
Period 2 27 28.7 -1.7 1.7 2.89 06.30% 35
Period 3 25.7 28.19 -2.49 2.49 6.2001 09.69%
Period 4 25 27.443 -2.443 2.443 5.968249 09.77% 30
Period 5 26.95 26.7101 0.2399 0.2399 0.057552 00.89%
Period 6 26.7 26.78207 -0.08207 0.08207 0.0067355 00.31% 25
Period 7 26.3 26.757449 -0.457449 0.457449 0.2092596 01.74%
Period 8 23.25 26.620214 -3.3702143 3.3702143 11.358344 14.50% 20
Period 9 18.72 25.60915 -6.88915 6.88915 47.460388 36.80%
Period 10 18.92 23.542405 -4.622405 4.622405 21.366628 24.43%

Value
15
Period 11 19.8 22.155684 -2.3556835 2.3556835 5.5492448 11.90%
Period 12 19.86 21.448978 -1.5889785 1.5889785 2.5248525 08.00% 10
Period 13 20.15 20.972285 -0.8222849 0.8222849 0.6761525 04.08%
Period 14 19.3 20.725599 -1.4255994 1.4255994 2.0323338 07.39% 5
Period 15 18.02 20.29792 -2.2779196 2.2779196 5.1889177 12.64%
Period 16 18.6 19.614544 -1.0145437 1.0145437 1.029299 05.45%
0
Period 17 17.98 19.310181 -1.3301806 1.3301806 1.7693805 07.40%
1 3 5 7 9 11
Period 18 16.5 18.911126 -2.4111264 2.4111264 5.8135306 14.61%
Period 19 16.04 18.187788 -2.1477885 2.1477885 4.6129954 13.39%
Period 20 14.48 17.543452 -3.0634519 3.0634519 9.3847378 21.16%
Period 21 12.78 16.624416 -3.8444164 3.8444164 14.779537 30.08%
Period 22 11.4 15.471091 -4.0710915 4.0710915 16.573786 35.71%
Period 23 12.86 14.249764 -1.389764 1.389764 1.931444 10.81%
Period 24 13.2 13.832835 -0.6328348 0.6328348 0.4004799 04.79%
Period 25 11.7 13.642984 -1.9429844 1.9429844 3.7751883 16.61%
Period 26 10.76 13.060089 -2.3000891 2.3000891 5.2904097 21.38%
Period 27 9.98 12.370062 -2.3900623 2.3900623 5.712398 23.95%
Period 28 10.26 11.653044 -1.3930436 1.3930436 1.9405706 13.58%
Period 29 12.3 11.235131 1.0648695 1.0648695 1.133947 08.66%
Period 30 12.22 11.554591 0.6654086 0.6654086 0.4427686 05.45%
Period 31 13.8 11.754214 2.045786 2.045786 4.1852405 14.82%
Period 32 15 12.36795 2.6320502 2.6320502 6.9276884 17.55%
Period 33 12.76 13.157565 -0.3975648 0.3975648 0.1580578 03.12%
Period 34 13.8 13.038295 0.7617046 0.7617046 0.5801939 05.52%
Period 35 14 13.266807 0.7331932 0.7331932 0.5375723 05.24%
Period 36 13.88 13.486765 0.3932353 0.3932353 0.154634 0.02833107
Total -50.317549 67.389844 198.62262 430.52%
Average -1.3977097 1.8719401 5.5172949 11.96%
Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 2.4169902
Next period 13.60473532
 Forecasting
35

30

25

20
Value

15

10

0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 1 5 1 7 19 21 2 3 25 27 29 3 1 33 35

Time

28.7 28.7
Forecasting Exponential smoothing
Enter
Enter alpha
alpha (between
(between 00 and and 1),
1), enter
enter the
the past
past demands
demands in in the
the shaded
shaded column
column then
then enter
enter aa
starting
starting forecast.
forecast. IfIf the
the starting
starting forecast
forecast isis not
not in
in the
the first
first period
period then
then delete
delete the
the error
error analysis
analysis for
for
all
all rows
rows above
above the
the starting
starting forecast.
forecast.
Alpha 0.8
Data Forecasts and Error Analysis
Period Demand Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
Period 1 247 247 0 0 0 00.00%
Period 2 238 247 -9 9 81 03.78%
Period 3 215.8 239.8 -24 24 576 11.12%
Period 4 194 220.6 -26.6 26.6 707.56 13.71%
Period 5 205.6 199.32 6.28 6.28 39.4384 03.05%
Period 6 201.8 204.344 -2.544 2.544 6.471936 01.26%
Period 7 197.5 202.3088 -4.8088 4.8088 23.124557 02.43%
Period 8 210 198.46176 11.53824 11.53824 133.13098 05.49%
Period 9 204.6 207.69235 -3.092352 3.092352 9.5626409 01.51%
Period 10 204 205.21847 -1.2184704 1.2184704 1.4846701 00.60%
Period 11 225 204.24369 20.756306 20.756306 430.82424 09.23%
Period 12 238.2 220.84874 17.351261 17.351261 301.06626 07.28%
Period 13 243.8 234.72975 9.0702522 9.0702522 82.269476 03.72%
Period 14 249 241.98595 7.0140504 7.0140504 49.196904 02.82%
Period 15 252 247.59719 4.4028101 4.4028101 19.384737 01.75%
Period 16 253 251.11944 1.880562 1.880562 3.5365135 00.74%
Period 17 284.8 252.62389 32.176112 32.176112 1035.3022 11.30%
Period 18 298.4 278.36478 20.035222 20.035222 401.41014 06.71%
Period 19 299 294.39296 4.6070445 4.6070445 21.224859 01.54%
Period 20 285 298.07859 -13.078591 13.078591 171.04955 04.59%
Period 21 274 287.61572 -13.615718 13.615718 185.38778 04.97%
Period 22 263 276.72314 -13.723144 13.723144 188.32467 05.22%
Period 23 270 265.74463 4.2553713 4.2553713 18.108185 01.58%
Period 24 288 269.14893 18.851074 18.851074 355.363 06.55%
Period 25 257 284.22979 -27.229785 27.229785 741.4612 10.60%
Period 26 276 262.44596 13.554043 13.554043 183.71208 04.91%
Period 27 278.4 273.28919 5.1108086 5.1108086 26.120364 01.84%
Period 28 291.8 277.37784 14.422162 14.422162 207.99875 04.94%
Period 29 316 288.91557 27.084432 27.084432 733.56648 08.57%
Period 30 307.8 310.58311 -2.7831135 2.7831135 7.7457209 00.90%
Period 31 317 308.35662 8.6433773 8.6433773 74.707971 02.73%
Period 32 304.6 315.27132 -10.671325 10.671325 113.87717 03.50%
Period 33 288 306.73426 -18.734265 18.734265 350.97268 06.50%
Period 34 281.8 291.74685 -9.946853 9.946853 98.939884 03.53%
Period 35 259 283.78937 -24.789371 24.789371 614.51289 09.57%
Period 36 237.8 263.95787 -26.157874 26.157874 684.23438 0.10999947
Total -4.9605315 459.02679 8678.0713 179.55%
Average -0.1377925 12.750744 241.05754 04.99% Fo
Bias MAD MSE MAPE 350
SE 15.976151
Next period 243.0315748 300

250

200
Value

150

100
 300

250

200

Value
150

100

50

0
1 4 7 10
 Forecasting
350

300

250

200
Value

150

100
 300

250

200
Value

150

100

50

0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34

Time

247 247
Forecasting Exponential smoothing
Enter
Enter alpha
alpha (between
(between 00 and and 1),
1), enter
enter the
the past
past demands
demands in in the
the shaded
shaded column
column then
then enter
enter aa
starting
starting forecast.
forecast. IfIf the
the starting
starting forecast
forecast isis not
not in
in the
the first
first period
period then
then delete
delete the
the error
error analysis
analysis for
for
all
all rows
rows above
above the
the starting
starting forecast.
forecast.
Alpha 0.3
Data Forecasts and Error Analysis
Period Demand Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
Period 1 247 247 0 0 0 00.00% F
Period 2 238 247 -9 9 81 03.78% 350
Period 3 215.8 244.3 -28.5 28.5 812.25 13.21%
Period 4 194 235.75 -41.75 41.75 1743.0625 21.52% 300
Period 5 205.6 223.225 -17.625 17.625 310.64063 08.57%
Period 6 201.8 217.9375 -16.1375 16.1375 260.41891 08.00% 250
Period 7 197.5 213.09625 -15.59625 15.59625 243.24301 07.90%
Period 8 210 208.41738 1.582625 1.582625 2.5047019 00.75% 200
Period 9 204.6 208.89216 -4.2921625 4.2921625 18.422659 02.10%

Value
Period 10 204 207.60451 -3.6045138 3.6045138 12.992519 01.77% 150
Period 11 225 206.52316 18.47684 18.47684 341.39363 08.21%
Period 12 238.2 212.06621 26.133788 26.133788 682.97489 10.97% 100
Period 13 243.8 219.90635 23.893652 23.893652 570.9066 09.80%
Period 14 249 227.07444 21.925556 21.925556 480.73002 08.81% 50
Period 15 252 233.65211 18.347889 18.347889 336.64504 07.28%
Period 16 253 239.15648 13.843523 13.843523 191.64312 05.47% 0
Period 17 284.8 243.30953 41.490466 41.490466 1721.4588 14.57%
1 4 7 10
Period 18 298.4 255.75667 42.643326 42.643326 1818.4533 14.29%
Period 19 299 268.54967 30.450328 30.450328 927.22249 10.18%
Period 20 285 277.68477 7.3152298 7.3152298 53.512587 02.57%
Period 21 274 279.87934 -5.8793392 5.8793392 34.566629 02.15%
Period 22 263 278.11554 -15.115537 15.115537 228.47947 05.75%
Period 23 270 273.58088 -3.5808762 3.5808762 12.822674 01.33%
Period 24 288 272.50661 15.493387 15.493387 240.04503 05.38%
Period 25 257 277.15463 -20.154629 20.154629 406.20908 07.84%
Period 26 276 271.10824 4.8917595 4.8917595 23.929311 01.77%
Period 27 278.4 272.57577 5.8242316 5.8242316 33.921674 02.09%
Period 28 291.8 274.32304 17.476962 17.476962 305.44421 05.99%
Period 29 316 279.56613 36.433873 36.433873 1327.4271 11.53%
Period 30 307.8 290.49629 17.303711 17.303711 299.41843 05.62%
Period 31 317 295.6874 21.312598 21.312598 454.22683 06.72%
Period 32 304.6 302.08118 2.5188186 2.5188186 6.3444472 00.83%
Period 33 288 302.83683 -14.836827 14.836827 220.13143 05.15%
Period 34 281.8 298.38578 -16.585779 16.585779 275.08806 05.89%
Period 35 259 293.41005 -34.410045 34.410045 1184.0512 13.29%
Period 36 237.8 283.08703 -45.287032 45.287032 2050.9152 0.19044168
Total 75.003074 659.71406 17712.496 260.11%
Average 2.0834187 18.32539 492.01378 07.23%
Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 22.824456
Next period 269.5009222
 Forecasting
350

300

250

200
Value

150

100

50

0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34

Time

247 247
Forecasting Weighted moving averages - 6 period moving average
Enter
Enter the
the data
data in
in the
the shaded
shaded area.
area. Enter
Enter weights
weights in
in
INCREASING
INCREASING order order from
from top
top to
to bottom.
bottom.

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis

Period Demand Weights Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
Period 1 28.7 1 6 periods ago
Period 2 27 2 5 periods ago
Period 3 25.7 3 4 periods ago
Period 4 25 4 3 periods ago
Period 5 26.95 5 2 periods ago
Period 6 26.7 6 1 periods ago
Period 7 26.3 26.416667 -0.1166667 0.1166667 0.0136111 00.44%
Period 8 23.25 26.309524 -3.0595238 3.0595238 9.3606859 13.16%
Period 9 18.72 25.445238 -6.7252381 6.7252381 45.228827 35.93%
Period 10 18.92 23.465238 -4.5452381 4.5452381 20.659189 24.02%
Period 11 19.8 21.874762 -2.0747619 2.0747619 4.304637 10.48%
Period 12 19.86 20.825238 -0.9652381 0.9652381 0.9316846 04.86%
Period 13 20.15 20.133333 0.0166667 0.0166667 0.0002778 00.08%
Period 14 19.3 19.85 -0.55 0.55 0.3025 02.85%
Period 15 18.02 19.616667 -1.5966667 1.5966667 2.5493444 08.86%
Period 16 18.6 19.205714 -0.6057143 0.6057143 0.3668898 03.26%
Period 17 17.98 18.99381 -1.0138095 1.0138095 1.0278098 05.64%
Period 18 16.5 18.62 -2.12 2.12 4.4944 12.85%
Period 19 16.04 17.91 -1.87 1.87 3.4969 11.66%
Period 20 14.48 17.228571 -2.7485714 2.7485714 7.5546449 18.98%
Period 21 12.78 16.297143 -3.5171429 3.5171429 12.370294 27.52%
Period 22 11.4 15.109524 -3.7095238 3.7095238 13.760567 32.54%
Period 23 12.86 13.777143 -0.9171429 0.9171429 0.841151 07.13%
Period 24 13.2 13.204762 -0.0047619 0.0047619 2.2676E-05 00.04%
Period 25 11.7 12.973333 -1.2733333 1.2733333 1.6213778 10.88%
Period 26 10.76 12.470476 -1.7104762 1.7104762 2.9257288 15.90%
Period 27 9.98 11.905714 -1.9257143 1.9257143 3.7083755 19.30%
Period 28 10.26 11.295238 -1.0352381 1.0352381 1.0717179 10.09%
Period 29 12.3 10.898095 1.4019048 1.4019048 1.965337 11.40%
Period 30 12.22 11.138095 1.0819048 1.0819048 1.1705179 08.85%
Period 31 13.8 11.381905 2.4180952 2.4180952 5.8471846 17.52%
Period 32 15 12.12381 2.8761905 2.8761905 8.2724717 19.17%
Period 33 12.76 13.108571 -0.3485714 0.3485714 0.121502 02.73%
Period 34 13.8 13.251429 0.5485714 0.5485714 0.3009306 03.98%
Period 35 14 13.559048 0.4409524 0.4409524 0.194439 03.15%
Period 36 13.88 13.755238 0.1247619 0.1247619 0.0155655 00.90%
Total -33.524286 51.342381 154.47858 344.16%
Average -1.1174762 1.7114127 5.1492862 11.47%
Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 2.3488491
Next period 13.83619048
 Forecasting
35

30

25

20
Value

15

10

0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34

Time

Demand Forecast
Forecasting Weighted moving averages - 4 period moving average
Enter
Enter the
the data
data in
in the
the shaded
shaded area.
area. Enter
Enter weights
weights in
in
INCREASING
INCREASING order order from
from top
top to
to bottom.
bottom.

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis

Period Demand Weights Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
Period 1 28.7 1 4 periods ago
Period 2 27 2 3 periods ago
Period 3 25.7 3 2 periods ago
Period 4 25 4 1 periods ago
Period 5 26.95 25.98 0.97 0.97 0.9409 03.60%
Period 6 26.7 26.12 0.58 0.58 0.3364 02.17%
Period 7 26.3 26.335 -0.035 0.035 0.001225 00.13%
Period 8 23.25 26.42 -3.17 3.17 10.0489 13.63%
Period 9 18.72 25.225 -6.505 6.505 42.315025 34.75%
Period 10 18.92 22.393 -3.473 3.473 12.061729 18.36%
Period 11 19.8 20.464 -0.664 0.664 0.440896 03.35%
Period 12 19.86 19.665 0.195 0.195 0.038025 00.98%
Period 13 20.15 19.54 0.61 0.61 0.3721 03.03%
Period 14 19.3 19.87 -0.57 0.57 0.3249 02.95%
Period 15 18.02 19.717 -1.697 1.697 2.879809 09.42%
Period 16 18.6 19.014 -0.414 0.414 0.171396 02.23%
Period 17 17.98 18.721 -0.741 0.741 0.549081 04.12%
Period 18 16.5 18.306 -1.806 1.806 3.261636 10.95%
Period 19 16.04 17.516 -1.476 1.476 2.178576 09.20%
Period 20 14.48 16.822 -2.342 2.342 5.484964 16.17%
Period 21 12.78 15.702 -2.922 2.922 8.538084 22.86%
Period 22 11.4 14.314 -2.914 2.914 8.491396 25.56%
Period 23 12.86 12.894 -0.034 0.034 0.001156 00.26%
Period 24 13.2 12.568 0.632 0.632 0.399424 04.79%
Period 25 11.7 12.696 -0.996 0.996 0.992016 08.51%
Period 26 10.76 12.352 -1.592 1.592 2.534464 14.80%
Period 27 9.98 11.74 -1.76 1.76 3.0976 17.64%
Period 28 10.26 10.88 -0.62 0.62 0.3844 06.04%
Period 29 12.3 10.42 1.88 1.88 3.5344 15.28%
Period 30 12.22 11.07 1.15 1.15 1.3225 09.41%
Period 31 13.8 11.628 2.172 2.172 4.717584 15.74%
Period 32 15 12.672 2.328 2.328 5.419584 15.52%
Period 33 12.76 13.814 -1.054 1.054 1.110916 08.26%
Period 34 13.8 13.586 0.214 0.214 0.045796 01.55%
Period 35 14 13.728 0.272 0.272 0.073984 01.94%
Period 36 13.88 13.792 0.088 0.088 0.007744 00.63%
Total -23.694 45.876 122.07661 303.85%
Average -0.7404375 1.433625 3.8148941 09.50%
Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 2.0172309
Next period 13.788
 Forecasting
35

30

25

20
Value

15

10

0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34

Time

Demand Forecast
Forecasting Weighted moving averages - 6 period moving average
Enter
Enter the
the data
data in
in the
the shaded
shaded area.
area. Enter
Enter weights
weights in
in
INCREASING
INCREASING order order from
from top
top to
to bottom.
bottom.

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis

Period Demand Weights Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
Period 1 247 1 6 periods ago
Period 2 238 2 5 periods ago
Period 3 215.8 3 4 periods ago
Period 4 194 4 3 periods ago
Period 5 205.6 5 2 periods ago
Period 6 201.8 6 1 periods ago
Period 7 197.5 208.81905 -11.319048 11.319048 128.12084 05.73%
Period 8 210 203.2381 6.7619048 6.7619048 45.723356 03.22%
Period 9 204.6 203.58571 1.0142857 1.0142857 1.0287755 00.50%
Period 10 204 203.72381 0.2761905 0.2761905 0.0762812 00.14%
Period 11 225 204.22381 20.77619 20.77619 431.65009 09.23%
Period 12 238.2 210.24762 27.952381 27.952381 781.3356 11.73%
Period 13 243.8 219.11905 24.680952 24.680952 609.14941 10.12%
Period 14 249 227.85714 21.142857 21.142857 447.02041 08.49%
Period 15 252 235.87619 16.12381 16.12381 259.97723 06.40%
Period 16 253 242.89524 10.104762 10.104762 102.10621 03.99%
Period 17 284.8 247.94286 36.857143 36.857143 1358.449 12.94%
Period 18 298.4 259.74286 38.657143 38.657143 1494.3747 12.95%
Period 19 299 272.58095 26.419048 26.419048 697.96608 08.84%
Period 20 285 282.72381 2.2761905 2.2761905 5.1810431 00.80%
Period 21 274 286.2381 -12.238095 12.238095 149.77098 04.47%
Period 22 263 284.89524 -21.895238 21.895238 479.40145 08.33%
Period 23 270 279.3619 -9.3619048 9.3619048 87.645261 03.47%
Period 24 288 275.35238 12.647619 12.647619 159.96227 04.39%
Period 25 257 277.19048 -20.190476 20.190476 407.65533 07.86%
Period 26 276 270.66667 5.3333333 5.3333333 28.444444 01.93%
Period 27 278.4 271.57143 6.8285714 6.8285714 46.629388 02.45%
Period 28 291.8 273.59048 18.209524 18.209524 331.58676 06.24%
Period 29 316 279.22857 36.771429 36.771429 1352.138 11.64%
Period 30 307.8 290.40952 17.390476 17.390476 302.42866 05.65%
Period 31 317 297.05714 19.942857 19.942857 397.71755 06.29%
Period 32 304.6 305.39048 -0.7904762 0.7904762 0.6248526 00.26%
Period 33 288 307.32381 -19.32381 19.32381 373.40961 06.71%
Period 34 281.8 303.15238 -21.352381 21.352381 455.92417 07.58%
Period 35 259 296.75238 -37.752381 37.752381 1425.2423 14.58%
Period 36 237.8 284.31429 -46.514286 46.514286 2163.5788 19.56%
Total 149.42857 550.90476 14524.319 206.48%
Average 4.9809524 18.363492 484.14396 06.88%
350
Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 22.77555 300
Next period 268.5333333
250

200
Value

150

100

50
 250

200

Value
150

100

50

0
1 4 7 10

D
 Forecasting
350

300

250

200
Value

150

100

50
 250

Value 200

150

100

50

0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34

Time

Demand Forecast
Forecasting Weighted moving averages - 4 period moving average
Enter
Enter the
the data
data in
in the
the shaded
shaded area.
area. Enter
Enter weights
weights in
in
INCREASING
INCREASING order order from
from top
top to
to bottom.
bottom.

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis

Period Demand Weights Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
Period 1 247 1 4 periods ago
Period 2 238 2 3 periods ago
Period 3 215.8 3 2 periods ago
Period 4 194 4 1 periods ago
Period 5 205.6 214.64 -9.04 9.04 81.7216 04.40%
Period 6 201.8 207.4 -5.6 5.6 31.36 02.78%
Period 7 197.5 202.78 -5.28 5.28 27.8784 02.67%
Period 8 210 200.06 9.94 9.94 98.8036 04.73%
Period 9 204.6 204.17 0.43 0.43 0.1849 00.21%
Period 10 204 204.52 -0.52 0.52 0.2704 00.25%
Period 11 225 204.73 20.27 20.27 410.8729 09.01%
Period 12 238.2 213.12 25.08 25.08 629.0064 10.53%
Period 13 243.8 224.04 19.76 19.76 390.4576 08.11%
Period 14 249 234.38 14.62 14.62 213.7444 05.87%
Period 15 252 242.88 9.12 9.12 83.1744 03.62%
Period 16 253 248.08 4.92 4.92 24.2064 01.94%
Period 17 284.8 250.98 33.82 33.82 1143.7924 11.88%
Period 18 298.4 265.12 33.28 33.28 1107.5584 11.15%
Period 19 299 280.6 18.4 18.4 338.56 06.15%
Period 20 285 291.38 -6.38 6.38 40.7044 02.24%
Period 21 274 291.86 -17.86 17.86 318.9796 06.52%
Period 22 263 284.74 -21.74 21.74 472.6276 08.27%
Period 23 270 274.3 -4.3 4.3 18.49 01.59%
Period 24 288 270.2 17.8 17.8 316.84 06.18%
Period 25 257 276.2 -19.2 19.2 368.64 07.47%
Period 26 276 269.5 6.5 6.5 42.25 02.36%
Period 27 278.4 272.1 6.3 6.3 39.69 02.26%
Period 28 291.8 274.36 17.44 17.44 304.1536 05.98%
Period 29 316 281.14 34.86 34.86 1215.2196 11.03%
Period 30 307.8 297.22 10.58 10.58 111.9364 03.44%
Period 31 317 304.12 12.88 12.88 165.8944 04.06%
Period 32 304.6 311.52 -6.92 6.92 47.8864 02.27%
Period 33 288 310.1 -22.1 22.1 488.41 07.67%
Period 34 281.8 300.76 -18.96 18.96 359.4816 06.73%
Period 35 259 291.74 -32.74 32.74 1071.9076 12.64%
Period 36 237.8 276.2 -38.4 38.4 1474.56 16.15%
Total 86.96 505.04 11439.263 190.16%
Average 2.7175 15.7825 357.47697 05.94%
Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 19.527129
Next period 257.98
 Forecasting
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1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34

Time

Demand Forecast
Forecasting Moving averages - 6 period moving average
Enter
Enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the data
data area
area

Num pds 6

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis

Period Demand Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
Period 1 28.7
Period 2 27
Period 3 25.7
Period 4 25
Period 5 26.95
Period 6 26.7
Period 7 26.3 26.675 -0.375 0.375 0.140625 01.43%
Period 8 23.25 26.275 -3.025 3.025 9.150625 13.01%
Period 9 18.72 25.65 -6.93 6.93 48.0249 37.02%
Period 10 18.92 24.486667 -5.5666667 5.5666667 30.987778 29.42%
Period 11 19.8 23.473333 -3.6733333 3.6733333 13.493378 18.55%
Period 12 19.86 22.281667 -2.4216667 2.4216667 5.8644694 12.19%
Period 13 20.15 21.141667 -0.9916667 0.9916667 0.9834028 04.92%
Period 14 19.3 20.116667 -0.8166667 0.8166667 0.6669444 04.23%
Period 15 18.02 19.458333 -1.4383333 1.4383333 2.0688028 07.98%
Period 16 18.6 19.341667 -0.7416667 0.7416667 0.5500694 03.99%
Period 17 17.98 19.288333 -1.3083333 1.3083333 1.7117361 07.28%
Period 18 16.5 18.985 -2.485 2.485 6.175225 15.06%
Period 19 16.04 18.425 -2.385 2.385 5.688225 14.87%
Period 20 14.48 17.74 -3.26 3.26 10.6276 22.51%
Period 21 12.78 16.936667 -4.1566667 4.1566667 17.277878 32.52%
Period 22 11.4 16.063333 -4.6633333 4.6633333 21.746678 40.91%
Period 23 12.86 14.863333 -2.0033333 2.0033333 4.0133444 15.58%
Period 24 13.2 14.01 -0.81 0.81 0.6561 06.14%
Period 25 11.7 13.46 -1.76 1.76 3.0976 15.04%
Period 26 10.76 12.736667 -1.9766667 1.9766667 3.9072111 18.37%
Period 27 9.98 12.116667 -2.1366667 2.1366667 4.5653444 21.41%
Period 28 10.26 11.65 -1.39 1.39 1.9321 13.55%
Period 29 12.3 11.46 0.84 0.84 0.7056 06.83%
Period 30 12.22 11.366667 0.8533333 0.8533333 0.7281778 06.98%
Period 31 13.8 11.203333 2.5966667 2.5966667 6.7426778 18.82%
Period 32 15 11.553333 3.4466667 3.4466667 11.879511 22.98%
Period 33 12.76 12.26 0.5 0.5 0.25 03.92%
Period 34 13.8 12.723333 1.0766667 1.0766667 1.1592111 07.80%
Period 35 14 13.313333 0.6866667 0.6866667 0.4715111 04.90%
Period 36 13.88 13.596667 0.2833333 0.2833333 0.0802778 02.04%
Total -44.031667 64.598333 215.347 430.26%
Average -1.4677222 2.1532778 7.1782334 14.34% Fo
Bias MAD MSE MAPE 35
SE 2.7732588
Next period 13.87333333 30

25

20
Value

15

10
 30

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Value
15

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1 4 7 10 1

Dem
 Forecasting
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30

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15

10
 30

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20
Value

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1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34

Time

Demand Forecast
Forecasting Moving averages - 4 period moving average
Enter
Enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the data
data area
area

Num pds 4

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis

Period Demand Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
Period 1 28.7 Fo
Period 2 27 35
Period 3 25.7
Period 4 25 30
Period 5 26.95 26.6 0.35 0.35 0.1225 01.30%
Period 6 26.7 26.1625 0.5375 0.5375 0.2889062 02.01% 25
Period 7 26.3 26.0875 0.2125 0.2125 0.0451562 00.81%
Period 8 23.25 26.2375 -2.9875 2.9875 8.9251563 12.85% 20
Period 9 18.72 25.8 -7.08 7.08 50.1264 37.82%

Value
Period 10 18.92 23.7425 -4.8225 4.8225 23.256506 25.49% 15
Period 11 19.8 21.7975 -1.9975 1.9975 3.9900063 10.09%
Period 12 19.86 20.1725 -0.3125 0.3125 0.0976563 01.57% 10
Period 13 20.15 19.325 0.825 0.825 0.680625 04.09%
Period 14 19.3 19.6825 -0.3825 0.3825 0.1463062 01.98% 5
Period 15 18.02 19.7775 -1.7575 1.7575 3.0888063 09.75%
Period 16 18.6 19.3325 -0.7325 0.7325 0.5365562 03.94% 0
Period 17 17.98 19.0175 -1.0375 1.0375 1.0764063 05.77% 1 4 7
Period 18 16.5 18.475 -1.975 1.975 3.900625 11.97% 10 1
Period 19 16.04 17.775 -1.735 1.735 3.010225 10.82%
Period 20 14.48 17.28 -2.8 2.8 7.84 19.34%
Period 21 12.78 16.25 -3.47 3.47 12.0409 27.15%
Period 22 11.4 14.95 -3.55 3.55 12.6025 31.14% Dem
Period 23 12.86 13.675 -0.815 0.815 0.664225 06.34%
Period 24 13.2 12.88 0.32 0.32 0.1024 02.42%
Period 25 11.7 12.56 -0.86 0.86 0.7396 07.35%
Period 26 10.76 12.29 -1.53 1.53 2.3409 14.22%
Period 27 9.98 12.13 -2.15 2.15 4.6225 21.54%
Period 28 10.26 11.41 -1.15 1.15 1.3225 11.21%
Period 29 12.3 10.675 1.625 1.625 2.640625 13.21%
Period 30 12.22 10.825 1.395 1.395 1.946025 11.42%
Period 31 13.8 11.19 2.61 2.61 6.8121 18.91%
Period 32 15 12.145 2.855 2.855 8.151025 19.03%
Period 33 12.76 13.33 -0.57 0.57 0.3249 04.47%
Period 34 13.8 13.445 0.355 0.355 0.126025 02.57%
Period 35 14 13.84 0.16 0.16 0.0256 01.14%
Period 36 13.88 13.89 -0.01 0.01 0.0001 00.07%
Total -30.48 52.97 161.59376 351.80%
Average -0.9525 1.6553125 5.0498051 10.99%
Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 2.3208746
Next period 13.61
 Forecasting
35

30

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15

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0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34

Time

Demand Forecast
Forecasting Moving averages - 4 period moving average
Enter
Enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the data
data area
area

Num pds 4

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis

Period Demand Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
Period 1 247
Period 2 238
Period 3 215.8
Period 4 194
Period 5 205.6 223.7 -18.1 18.1 327.61 08.80%
Period 6 201.8 213.35 -11.55 11.55 133.4025 05.72%
Period 7 197.5 204.3 -6.8 6.8 46.24 03.44%
Period 8 210 199.725 10.275 10.275 105.57563 04.89%
Period 9 204.6 203.725 0.875 0.875 0.765625 00.43%
Period 10 204 203.475 0.525 0.525 0.275625 00.26% 350
Period 11 225 204.025 20.975 20.975 439.95063 09.32%
Period 12 238.2 210.9 27.3 27.3 745.29 11.46% 300
Period 13 243.8 217.95 25.85 25.85 668.2225 10.60%
Period 14 249 227.75 21.25 21.25 451.5625 08.53% 250
Period 15 252 239 13 13 169 05.16%
Period 16 253 245.75 7.25 7.25 52.5625 02.87% 200
Period 17 284.8 249.45 35.35 35.35 1249.6225 12.41%

Value
Period 18 298.4 259.7 38.7 38.7 1497.69 12.97% 150
Period 19 299 272.05 26.95 26.95 726.3025 09.01%
Period 20 285 283.8 1.2 1.2 1.44 00.42% 100
Period 21 274 291.8 -17.8 17.8 316.84 06.50%
Period 22 263 289.1 -26.1 26.1 681.21 09.92% 50
Period 23 270 280.25 -10.25 10.25 105.0625 03.80%
Period 24 288 273 15 15 225 05.21% 0
Period 25 257 273.75 -16.75 16.75 280.5625 06.52% 1 4
Period 26 276 269.5 6.5 6.5 42.25 02.36%
Period 27 278.4 272.75 5.65 5.65 31.9225 02.03%
Period 28 291.8 274.85 16.95 16.95 287.3025 05.81%
Period 29 316 275.8 40.2 40.2 1616.04 12.72%
Period 30 307.8 290.55 17.25 17.25 297.5625 05.60%
Period 31 317 298.5 18.5 18.5 342.25 05.84%
Period 32 304.6 308.15 -3.55 3.55 12.6025 01.17%
Period 33 288 311.35 -23.35 23.35 545.2225 08.11%
Period 34 281.8 304.35 -22.55 22.55 508.5025 08.00%
Period 35 259 297.85 -38.85 38.85 1509.3225 15.00%
Period 36 237.8 283.35 -45.55 45.55 2074.8025 19.15%
Total 108.35 590.75 15491.968 224.04%
Average 3.3859375 18.460938 484.12398 07.00%
Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 22.724412
Next period 266.65
 Forecasting
350

300

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Value

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1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34

Time

Demand Forecast
Forecasting Moving averages - 6 period moving average
Enter
Enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the data
data area
area

Num pds 6

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis

Period Demand Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
Period 1 247 F
Period 2 238 350
Period 3 215.8
Period 4 194 300
Period 5 205.6
Period 6 201.8 250
Period 7 197.5 217.03333 -19.533333 19.533333 381.55111 09.89%
Period 8 210 208.78333 1.2166667 1.2166667 1.4802778 00.58% 200
Period 9 204.6 204.11667 0.4833333 0.4833333 0.2336111 00.24%
Period 10 204 202.25 1.75 1.75 3.0625 00.86%

Value
150
Period 11 225 203.91667 21.083333 21.083333 444.50694 09.37%
Period 12 238.2 207.15 31.05 31.05 964.1025 13.04%
100
Period 13 243.8 213.21667 30.583333 30.583333 935.34028 12.54%
Period 14 249 220.93333 28.066667 28.066667 787.73778 11.27%
50
Period 15 252 227.43333 24.566667 24.566667 603.52111 09.75%
Period 16 253 235.33333 17.666667 17.666667 312.11111 06.98%
0
Period 17 284.8 243.5 41.3 41.3 1705.69 14.50%
1 4 7 10
Period 18 298.4 253.46667 44.933333 44.933333 2019.0044 15.06%
Period 19 299 263.5 35.5 35.5 1260.25 11.87%
Period 20 285 272.7 12.3 12.3 151.29 04.32%
Period 21 274 278.7 -4.7 4.7 22.09 01.72%
Period 22 263 282.36667 -19.366667 19.366667 375.06778 07.36% Dem
Period 23 270 284.03333 -14.033333 14.033333 196.93444 05.20%
Period 24 288 281.56667 6.4333333 6.4333333 41.387778 02.23%
Period 25 257 279.83333 -22.833333 22.833333 521.36111 08.88%
Period 26 276 272.83333 3.1666667 3.1666667 10.027778 01.15%
Period 27 278.4 271.33333 7.0666667 7.0666667 49.937778 02.54%
Period 28 291.8 272.06667 19.733333 19.733333 389.40444 06.76%
Period 29 316 276.86667 39.133333 39.133333 1531.4178 12.38%
Period 30 307.8 284.53333 23.266667 23.266667 541.33778 07.56%
Period 31 317 287.83333 29.166667 29.166667 850.69444 09.20%
Period 32 304.6 297.83333 6.7666667 6.7666667 45.787778 02.22%
Period 33 288 302.6 -14.6 14.6 213.16 05.07%
Period 34 281.8 304.2 -22.4 22.4 501.76 07.95%
Period 35 259 302.53333 -43.533333 43.533333 1895.1511 16.81%
Period 36 237.8 293.03333 -55.233333 55.233333 3050.7211 23.23%
Total 209 641.46667 19806.123 240.53%
Average 6.9666667 21.382222 660.20409 08.02%
Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 26.596269
Next period 281.3666667
 Forecasting
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Demand Forecast