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Long-term transformation pathways for Brazil:

the role of Concentrated Solar Power (CSP)
perceived by two modelling approaches

Conference Paper · December 2017

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 TENTH ANNUAL MEETING OF THE IAMC, RECIFE, BRAZIL, 6 DECEMBER 2017

Long-term transformation pathways for Brazil: the role of Concentrated

Solar Power (CSP) perceived by two modelling approaches.

Rafael Soriaa, 1, Tobias Fichterb, Alexandre Szkloc, Roberto Schaefferc,

a
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Escuela Politécnica Nacional, Ladrón de Guevara E11-

253, 17-01-2759 Quito, Ecuador.

b
German Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute of Engineering Thermodynamics, Department of

Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment, Pfaffenwaldring 38-40, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany

c
Energy Planning Program, Graduate School of Engineering, Universidade Federal do Rio de

Janeiro, Centro de Tecnologia, Bloco C, Sala 211, Cidade Universitária, Ilha do Fundão, 21941-972,

Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.

1. Introduction

The Brazilian Government is assessing several national transformation pathways, including its

NDC and mid-century mitigation strategies. To meet fast-growing energy demand with

minimum greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions the Government is fostering the deployment of

wind and solar photovoltaics (PV), which are variable renewable energy (VRE) sources. A

challenge for Brazil, as well as for other countries that pursue high penetrations of VRE in their

power systems, is how to supply electricity in a secure, reliable and cost effective way with

minimum GHG emissions, while providing the system with the required flexibility that allows

integrating high shares of VRE.

Concentrated solar power (CSP) plants with thermal energy storage (TES) and/or back-up

systems (BUS) are one the options for deep transformation on a national level up to 2050 and

1
Corresponding author. Tel.: +55 21 995388166; E-mail address: rafael.soria.energia@gmail.com; Postal
address: Department of Mechanical Engineering, Escuela Politécnica Nacional, Ladrón de Guevara
E11-253, 17-01-2759 Quito, Ecuador. (R. Soria).
 TENTH ANNUAL MEETING OF THE IAMC, RECIFE, BRAZIL, 6 DECEMBER 2017

beyond. These technologies can provide firm and flexible generation capacity based on

renewable energy resources to balance out unreliable and fluctuating power generation from

VRE.

The traditional approach for planning capacity expansion in Brazil is based only on the total

minimum cost criteria, which is calculated by tools of limited capabilities to properly model a

large penetration of VRE and CSP. Common power system expansion planning tools do not

consider detailed dispatch constraints by power plants and also do not have high temporal and

spatial resolutions. While VRE technologies have been marginal players in the Brazilian grid,

the variability of their outputs has been a manageable issue to the traditional modelling

approach. However, as VRE penetration increases, this variability and uncertainty will start to

pose more significant challenges. In this context, CSP plants are currently modelled in the same

way as VRE technologies, ignoring the fact that this technology can provide firm and

dispatchable power generation on demand. Due to this traditional approach, CSP is not

considered as a cost-effective option for the expansion of the power system.

This work helps to fill this gap by discussing on two alternative methodological approaches that

aim at improving the modelling of VRE and the integration of flexibility sources, specifically of

flexible CSP plants. To achieve the goal, in previous work we proposed soft-link [1] and hard-

link [2] methodological approaches. Both approaches are described in section 2.2. This work is

the third and more comprehensive study. It aims to discuss the premises and results of both

methodological approaches, and the role of CSP perceived by each approach.

2. Methodology

Two energy planning tools were used in [1,2], which are the precursors of this work: a) the

Integrated Energy Planning Model MESSAGE-Brazil, developed by PPE/COPPE at the

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ); and b) the Renewable Energy Mix - Capacity

Expansion Model-Brazil (REMix-CEM-B), developed by the German Aerospace Center (DLR).

In general terms, MESSAGE –Brazil optimizes the expansion of the whole energy sector, while
 TENTH ANNUAL MEETING OF THE IAMC, RECIFE, BRAZIL, 6 DECEMBER 2017

REMIX-CEM-B can be used in two ways, as described in the sequence. Furthermore, REMix-

CEM is able to model CSP plants in a detailed way, not only optimizing the investment decision

for candidate CSP units and their dispatch strategy, but also optimizing the configuration of the

CSP units from a central planning system perspective.

The above described tools were used by [1,2] within two modelling approaches:

2.1 Soft-link

The approach presented by [1] considers a soft-link2 between MESSAGE-Brazil and REMIX-

CEM-B. In this case REMIX-CEM was implemented in a simplified way, only to optimize the

dispatch of a set of power plants, and only for the Northeast region of Brazil, previously

calculated by the expansion tool MESSAGE-Brazil (national level).

2.2 Hard-link

The method presented by [2] considers a hard link (within the same model) between the

optimization algorithms for the capacity expansion and the dispatch of the power system by

taking into account several restrictions on the wider system level and at the unit level. To do

that, full capabilities of REMIX-CEM were used to model in detail only the Northeast region of

Brazil.

2.3 Scenarios by modelling approach

Both works, [1,2], considered the same data (technology, fuel prices, resource availability, etc.)

to model the Brazilian power system. This work will not focus on the power system modelling,

neither on the details behind each scenario. Conversely, this work aims to discuss their

modelling approaches and the results obtained for the main scenarios. This work will focus on

selected scenarios where CSP showed to be a cost-effective option in the period 2040 – 2050.

The final version of this work will briefly present the selected scenarios. From [1], we will

emphasize the “2DS_w/o CCS_CSP BIO” scenario, which is a mitigation policy in climate

change scenario implemented in the model through CO2 price applied to all GHGs, with a value

2
More details about model coupling approach are described by [3].
 TENTH ANNUAL MEETING OF THE IAMC, RECIFE, BRAZIL, 6 DECEMBER 2017

related to a 2°C global warming scenario of [4] (namely, 2DS scenario), with high CO2 price

(140 US$/t CO2 in 2040). Additionally, in this scenario Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is

not available as an option in Brazil and CSP plants use low-cost biomass for their hybridization

(CSP-BIO plants). From [2] we will focus on the base scenario where CSP-BIO showed already

to be a cost-effective option since 2040. Additionally, from [2] optimal dispatch in summer and

winter, in 2030 and 2050, will be showed.

3. Results

The final version of this work will summarize, by technology, the power generation expansion

results presented by [1,2] in terms of capacity, electricity generation, optimum dispatch and the

evolution of the main CSP-BIO design parameters. According to [1], CSP is a cost-effective

expansion by 2040 only in the “2DS_w/o CCS_CSP BIO” scenario. REMIX-CEM-B verified

that according to the expansion plan calculated by MESSAGE, CSP is highly complementary

with wind and PV generation.

According to [2] solar CSP-BIO plants become a least-cost option from onwards 2040 when

they start with 3.8 GW, reaching 8.4 GW in 2050. Figure 1 shows the evolution of baseline

scenario in terms of electricity generation calculated by [2] for the Northeast region.
 TENTH ANNUAL MEETING OF THE IAMC, RECIFE, BRAZIL, 6 DECEMBER 2017

Figure 1. Power supply in Northeast Brazil- baseline scenario

4. Discussion

The final version of this work will extensively discuss on which is the the role that CSP

plays in the Brazilian power system in the long-term. This role had been underestimated

by the traditional energy planning tools and planning approach. The use of new

modelling approaches and new energy panning tools can better portrait the role of CSP

in Brazil. CSP may have an important role by 2040 and beyond.

5. Main references

[1] Soria R, Lucena AFP, Tomaschek J, Fichter T, Haasz T, Szklo A, et al. Modelling
concentrated solar power (CSP) in the Brazilian energy system: A soft-linked model
coupling approach. Energy 2016;116, Part 1:265–80. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2016.09.080.
[2] Fichter T, Soria R, Szklo A, Schaeffer R, Lucena AFP. Assessing the potential role of
concentrated solar power (CSP) for the northeast power system of Brazil using a detailed
power system model. Energy 2017;121:695–715. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2017.01.012.
[3] Hidalgo González I, Ruiz Castello P, Sgobbi A, Nijs W, Quoilin S, Zucker A, et al.
Addressing flexibility in energy system models. Luxembourg: European Comission - Joint
Research Centre (JRC); 2015. doi:10.2790/925.
[4] IEA. Energy Technology Perspectives 2014- Harnessing Electricity’s Potential. Paris: IEA;
2014.

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