The Big Mo' Moves To Warren

November 2019: Three Months Until Voting

By Matt McDonald and Julie Barger
INTRODUCTION

The Big Mo' Moves To Warren

It's not clear that Elizabeth Warren will be the Democratic

nominee, but it's clear she has the energy in the field. "Well, I say, I will out-
However it is measured: work, out-organize, and
• She has seen the biggest gains in polls, with a 15-point outlast anyone, and that
increase in support since the spring. includes Donald Trump,
Mike Pence, or whoever
• She has seen the biggest gains in fundraising, with a the Republicans get
29-percent increase in donations over the last quarter. stuck with."
• She maintains the strongest campaign organization, Elizabeth Warren
with over 600 paid staff and nearly 8,000 events organized 10/15/19
over the past two months.
This momentum has made her a focal point among other
candidates at debates and has resulted in her driving the
conversation in the Democratic primaries. As media scrutiny
moves to Warren as a potential frontrunner, the biggest test
may be just ahead before voting finally starts.

The Big Mo' was coined by George H.W. Bush after he won the Iowa Caucuses in 1980: "Now they will be after me,
howling and yowling at my heels. What we will have is momentum. We will look forward to Big Mo being on our side, as
they say in athletics." 1
POLLING

Warren Has Been Trending Up Against Her Competitors

Democratic Candidate Real Clear Politics (RCP) Polling Averages

40

35

30
Biden
Percent Support

25

20 Warren

Sanders
15
+15
10
Buttigieg
5 Harris

0
1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov

Source: Real Clear Politics (RCP) 2

INFRASTRUCTURE - EVENTS

Warren And Sanders Outpace Other Candidates In

Campaign Events Hosted
Events Per Presidential Campaign
September 1 – October 31, 2019 The Warren campaign
and the Sanders
10 campaign are far
outpacing other top-
contenders and are "out-
Number Of Events (Thousands)

8.1 K eventing" Biden's

8 7.7 K
campaign by 5-to-1.
• Events and canvassing
6 counts are a good
5.0 K proxy for campaign
infrastructure because
4 3.8 K they show the amount
and spread of activity
happening in support of
2 1.5 K a candidate – e.g. the
candidate's grassroot
reach.
0
Bernie Warren Buttigieg Harris Biden
Source: Mobilize America, HPS Analysis
*Event Types Include: Community, Training, House Party, Meeting, Phone Bank, Canvass, Debate Watch, Text Bank, Town Hall, Meet And Greet, Rally, 3
Fundraiser, Voter Registration, Friend To Friend Outreach, Office Opening, Signature Gathering, Barnstorm, Community Canvass, Solidarity Event, And Other
INFRASTRUCTURE - STAFF

Warren's Campaign Has The Most Paid Staff Members

Democratic Campaign Paid Staff (Q3 2019)

700

605
600
545

500
448 443
Paid Staff

400

314
300

200

100

0
Warren Sanders Buttigieg Biden Harris

Source: FEC Q3 2019 Filing, Payroll And Salary Designations 4

SOCIAL

Warren's Campaign Twitter Account Has Been Gaining

More New Followers Than Other Candidates
New Twitter Followers Since August
(August 30 – October 29, 2019)

400
New Twitter Followers

300
(Thousands)

200

100

0
@ewarren @BernieSanders @JoeBiden @KamalaHarris @PeteButtigieg

Total Followers
(Millions) 3.4 9.9 3.9 3.2 1.5

Source: Twitter, HPS Analysis 5

FUNDING

In The Third Quarter, Warren's Campaign Saw An

Almost 30 Percent Jump In Funding
Democratic Campaign Funding By Quarter (2019) Q1 Q2 Q3

+9%
30
+29% -23%
-29%
Money Raised By Quarter

20
(Millions)

0%
28
26 25 25
10 21 22
19 19
17 16
13 12 12
7
0
Sanders Warren Buttigieg Biden Harris

Total Raised $74 $60 $51 $37 $36

(Millions)
Cash On Hand $34 $26 $23 $9 $11
(Millions)
Source: FEC 6