Transportation and Traffic Engineering: Trip Generation/Trip Distribution

‫‪Transportation and Traffic‬‬
‫‪Engineering‬‬
‫‪Trip Generation/Trip Distribution‬‬
‫‪Dr. Sherif El-Badawy‬‬
‫‪3rd Year Civil‬‬
‫معهد مصر العالي للهندسة والتكنولوجيا – قسم الهندسة المدنية ‪ -‬المنصورة‬
‫‪1‬‬
Trip Generation
Trip generation: is a model for the calculation of the
number of trips ends in given area .
Objectives:
• Understand the reasons behind the trip making
behavior.
• Produce mathematical relationships to represent trip-
making pattern on the basis of observed trips, land-
use data and household characteristics.
‫ المنصورة‬- ‫معهد مصر العالي للهندسة والتكنولوجيا – قسم الهندسة المدنية‬
Trip Making
(Fricker, J. D. and Whitfor R. K. 2004)
2
Trips
None-Home
Home Based
Based
• 80% - 90% • 10% - 20%
• One end of the trip is • Neither end of the trip
home is home
Home Work Work Shop
Trip ends are classified into Generations and Attractions

No. of Trip Generations = No. of Trip Attractions
Trip Purpose
Shopping Work
Recreational - Social School

Personal Business
3
Factors Govern Trip Generation
• Income
• Car ownership
• Family size and composition
• Land use characteristics
• Distance of the zone from the town center.
• Accessibility to public transport system and its
efficiency
• Employment opportunities
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis

multiple regression analysis is used develop the prediction
equations for the trips generated by various types of
land use.
The general form of the equation obtained is:
Yp = a1X1 + a2X2 + a3X3, ...,anXn + U
Yp = number-of trips generated for specified purpose
X1, X2, X3,....... Xn= independent variables, for example,
land-use socio-economic factors etc.
a2 ,a3 ….. a0 = Regression Coefficients obtained by
linear regression analysis
U = Error term
4
Dohuk City
27 total zones
20 residential zones
Based on Home interview surveys,

Trip attraction purposes were categorized into 5 types:
1) Home-Based Work (HBW)
2) Home-Based Education (HBED)
3) Home-Based Shopping (HBSH(
4) Home-Based Social (HBSO(
5) Home Based Other (HBO)
5
Zone Characteristics
Retail Distance No. of School
Zone # HBW No. of DU Area (km2) Employment
Sales to CBD Schools Enrollment
1 1289 995 0.155 1031 1221 0.4635 5 2020

2 866 640 0.415 700 1680 0.4697 3 1354
3 2954 1273 1.081 1728 1081 0.9159 9 1437
4 1864 1570 0.738 2179 1560 1.63 5 2123
5 293 262 0.172 108 888 0.64 3 1431
6 955 408 0.412 452 1128 0.42 4 1079
7 347 520 0.424 636 1104 1.27 5 1851
8 843 1200 0.384 746 1344 0.5 4 3243
9 1640 1120 0.251 960 1320 1 3 2653
10 1054 1550 0.33 1116 1416 0.52 5 2723
11 1100 700 0.411 800 1512 0.558 6 2475
12 908 1160 0.496 630 1632 0.7889 5 2023
13 551 583 1.113 331 1872 1.5 10 3121
14 1406 4505 2.553 3604 2136 2.95 13 4523
15 713 884 0.669 598 1896 2.65 4 1821
16 986 1744 0.637 1662 1704 1.75 4 2330
17 1985 1350 1.31 1826 1848 1.34 8 2411
18 2754 1600 1.117 1806 1800 1.63 12 3253
19 1367 550 0.523 523 1464 1.78 5 2056
20 302 1060 0.811 1060 1512 2.37 9 1983
DU=Dwelling Units
W = work, H = home
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.77
R Square 0.59
Adjusted R Square 0.45
Standard Error 547.52
Observations 20
Coefficients
Intercept 740.2329848
X Variable 1 -0.92854194
X Variable 2 267.7267828
X Variable 3 1.429164322
X Variable 4 0.126868013
X Variable 5 -332.6795369
6
Trip Distribution
Distribution of Trips between zones.
Present O/D Matrix Future O/D Matrix
D D
O
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 SP
O
1 100 200 120
1
2 300 170 300
2
3 250 400 320
3
4 210 200 220
4
S P = No. of Trip Generations SA

S A = No. of Trip Attractions
Methods of Trip Distribution
1. Growth Factors Methods  Old

• Uniform factor method
• Average factor method
• Fratar method
• Furness method
2. Synthetic Methods  More Rational

• Gravity model
• Tanner model
• Intervening opportunities model
• Competing opportunities model
7
Growth Factors Methods
Assume that in the future the trip-making pattern will
remain substantially the same as today but that the volume
of trips will increase according to the growth of the
generating and attracting zones.
Advantages:
• Simpler than Synthetic Methods
• Good for small towns where considerable changes in
land-use and external factors are not expected
Uniform (Constant) Factor Method

The oldest growth factor method
Assumes that the growth factor (E) for the entire area is
constant.
E = Future number of trips ends / Base Year trip ends
Ti-j = ti-j x E
Ti-j = Future No. of Trips between Zones I, j

ti-j = Base Year No. of Trip between Zones I, j
E = Constant Growth Factor
8
D
Example 1 2 3
O
If you were given that the
future trips generated in 1 60 100 200
zone 1, 2,3 are expected to
be 360, 1260 and 3120. 2 100 20 300
It is required to distribute the
3 200 300 20
future trips among the zones
D
1 2 3 ti Ti
O
1 60 100 200 360 360
2 100 20 300 420 1260
3 200 300 20 520 3120

Total 1300 4740
D
1 2 3 ti Ti
O
1 60 100 200 360 360
2 100 20 300 420 1260
3 200 300 20 520 3120
Total 1300 4740
D
1 2 3 ti Ti
O
1 219 365 729 1313 360
2 365 73 1094 1531 1260
3 729 1094 73 1896 3120
‫ المنصورة‬- ‫معهد مصر العالي للهندسة والتكنولوجيا – قسم الهندسة المدنية‬ Total 4740 4740
9
Average Factor Method
• A growth factor for each zone is calculated based on
the average growth factors calculated for both ends
of the trip.
• The factor represents the average growth associated
both with origin and destination zone.
Where Ei = Pi/pi and Ej = Aj/aj
Pi = future production (generation) of zone i,

pi = present production of zone i,
Aj = future attraction of zone j,
aj = present attraction of zone j.
20
Example
D Future
1 2 3
O Production
1 100 200 6000
2 400 600 4000
3 500 300 3000

Future
Attraction 2000 1500 400 2000
Note that this O/D matrix needs correction
21
10
‫‪Example‬‬
‫‪D‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪pi‬‬ ‫‪Pi‬‬ ‫‪Ei‬‬
‫‪O‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪100‬‬ ‫‪200‬‬ ‫‪300 6000‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪400‬‬ ‫‪600 1000 4000‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪500‬‬ ‫‪300‬‬ ‫‪800 3000 3.75‬‬
‫‪aj‬‬ ‫‪900‬‬ ‫‪400‬‬ ‫‪800‬‬

‫‪Ei = Pi/pi‬‬
‫‪Aj‬‬ ‫‪2000 1500 400‬‬ ‫‪Ej = Aj/aj‬‬
‫‪Ej‬‬ ‫‪2.22 3.75‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬
‫‪22‬‬
‫‪Iteration one‬‬
‫‪D‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪pi‬‬ ‫‪Pi‬‬ ‫‪Ei‬‬
‫‪O‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1188 2050 3238 6000 1.853‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1244‬‬ ‫‪1350 2594 4000 1.542‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪1493 1125‬‬ ‫‪2618 3000 1.146‬‬
‫‪aj‬‬ ‫‪2738 2313 3400‬‬
‫‪Aj‬‬ ‫‪2000 1500 400‬‬
‫‪Ej‬‬ ‫‪0.73 0.65 0.12‬‬
‫‪23‬‬
‫‪11‬‬
‫‪Iteration Two‬‬
‫‪D‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪pi‬‬ ‫‪Pi‬‬ ‫‪Ei‬‬
‫‪O‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1486 2020 3506 6000 1.711‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1414‬‬ ‫‪1120 2534 4000 1.579‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪1401 1009‬‬ ‫‪2410 3000 1.245‬‬
‫‪aj‬‬ ‫‪2815 2495 3140‬‬
‫‪Aj‬‬ ‫‪2000 1500 400‬‬
‫‪Ej‬‬ ‫‪0.71 0.60 0.13‬‬
‫‪24‬‬
‫‪Iteration Three‬‬
‫‪D‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪pi‬‬ ‫‪Pi‬‬ ‫‪Ei‬‬
‫‪O‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1718 1857 3575 6000 1.678‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1618‬‬ ‫‪955.4 2574 4000 1.554‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪1369 931.6‬‬ ‫‪2301 3000 1.304‬‬
‫‪aj‬‬ ‫‪2988 2649 2813‬‬
‫‪Aj‬‬ ‫‪2000 1500 400‬‬
‫‪Ej‬‬ ‫‪0.67 0.57 0.14‬‬ ‫‪25‬‬
‫‪12‬‬
Iteration Four
D
1 2 3 pi Pi Ei
O
1 1928 1691 3618 6000 1.658
2 1799 810.4 2610 4000 1.533
3 1351 871 2222 3000 1.35
aj 3150 2799 2501
Aj 2000 1500 400
Ej 0.63 0.54 0.16 26
Average Factor Method
The process is iterated using successive values of

p’i and a’j until:
• The growth factor approaches unity
• and the successive values of t’ij and tij are within

1 to 5 percent depending upon the accuracy
required in the trip distribution.
13
Criticism of Growth Factors Methods
• Present trip distribution matrix has to be obtained first.

• The error in the original data collected on specific zone
to zone movements gets magnified.
• None of the methods provide a measure of the
resistance to travel, they neglect the effect of change in
travel pattern by the construction of new facilities and
new network.
28
Travel Resistance
• Distance.
• Time.
• Cost.
• Generalized Cost.
Determine and Compare:
Short Travel ?????????????? Matrix
(Time-Distance-Cost-Generalized Cost)
14
Cut-off Value
A limiting value when reached the trip will not made.
• Specific Distance.
• Specific Time.
• Specific Cost.
• Specific Generalized Cost
Example:
Least Travel Time from City Centroid
(4) 23 (3) 24 (2) 25
22 26
(2) (2) (2)
(5) 19 (1) (4)

(1) 18 20 21
(3) (2) (3)
1 (5)
(2) (2) (3)
15 16 17
(3) (1)
(3)
(5) 14
11 (2) (2)
12 13
15
Starting from centroid 1 we go to each connecting link and
choose the least travel time
T1-20 = 3 T1-17 = 3
The time is the same , if we begin with the node with lower
number node 17 is noted:
T1-17-19 = 5 T1-17-16 = 5 T1-17-16 = 6
The next closest node to centroid 1 is 20
T1-20-19 = 4 T1-20-25 = 6 T1-20-21 = 7
There are two routes to reach 19 from centroid 1, i.e. 1-17-19
and 1-20-19. the rout 1-20-19 is shorter in time, therefore is
chosen
32
• The process is repeated until all nodes have been covered by the
shortest path.
• The minimum path tree for this highway network is given in figure.
(4) 23 (3) 24 (2) 25

22 26
(2) (2) (2)
(5) 19 (1) (4)

(1) 18 20 21
(3) (2) (3)
1 (5)
(2) (2) (3)
15 16 17
(3) (1)
(3)
(5) 14
11 (2) 12 (2) 13
16
‫‪Incident matrix‬‬
‫‪Incident Matrix‬‬
‫‪O\D‬‬ ‫‪Sum‬‬
‫‪A‬‬ ‫‪B‬‬ ‫‪C‬‬ ‫‪D‬‬ ‫‪E‬‬ ‫‪F‬‬ ‫‪G‬‬ ‫‪H‬‬ ‫‪I‬‬
‫‪A‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫*‪1‬‬
‫‪B‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪C‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪D‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪E‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪F‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪G‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫*‪6‬‬
‫‪H‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪I‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪17‬‬
Balancing Productions and Attractions
No. of Trip Generations (Productions) = No. of Trip Attractions
• However, they are often different since trip productions

and attractions are estimated separately.
• There is a greater degree of confidence in the

production models than the attraction models.
• The attractions are scaled to productions.
Balancing Attractions and Productions.

Example
Computed Productions and Attractions
Zone Productions Attractions
1 25 1000
2 125 350
3 350 500
4 800 100
5 600 250
Total 1900 2200
37
18
Balancing Attractions and Productions
Computed Productions and
solution Attractions
Zone Productions Attractions
1 25 1000
2 125 350
Adjusted Productions and 3 350 500
Attractions 4 800 100
Zone Productions Attractions 5 600 250
1 25 864 Total 1900 2200
2 125 302
3 350 432
4 800 86
5 600 216
Total 1900 1900
Trip Distribution by Gravity Model
Where:
Ti-j = Trips between zones i and j
Pi = Trips produced in zone i
Aj = Trips attracted to zone j
di-j = Distance or Time or Cost between zones i and j
n = an exponential constant, usually between 1 and 3
K = constant
40
19
This formula can be expressed as follows
41
Example
A small town consists of four areas A, B, C, D and two
industrial estates X and Y. generation equations show that,
for the design year in question, the trips from home to work
generated by each residential area per 24 hour day are as
follows:
A 1000 There are:

B 2250 3700 jobs in industrial state X
C 1750 4500 jobs in industrial state Y.
D 3200
42
20
The attraction between zones is inversely proportional
to the square of the journey times between zones.
The journey times in minutes from home to work are:
Zones X Y
A 15 20
B 15 10
C 10 10
D 15 20
Calculate and tabulate the

inter-zonal trips for journeys
from home to work
43
Solution Production
A 1000
B 2250
C 1750
D 3200
Time
Zones X Y
A 15 20
B 15 10
C 10 10
D 15 20
Total Attractions:
3700 jobs in X
4500 jobs in Y
21
In the same way we can get:
TB-X = 604, TB-Y = 1646, TC-X = 790, TC-Y = 960, TD-X = 1980
TD-Y = 1220
X Y Ti-j for origin zones, A, B,

C, D, total production
A 604 396 1000
B 604 1646 2250
C 790 960 1750
D 1980 1220 3200
Total Attractions:
3700 jobs in X , 4500 jobs in Y
Total Attractions:
3700 jobs in X , 4500 jobs in Y
X Y Ti-j for origin zones, A, B,

C, D, total production
A 604 396 1000
B 604 1646 2250
C 790 960 1750
D 1980 1220 3200
Total calculated 3978 4222 8200
Attraction, Ci
Total predicted 3700 4500 8200

attraction Ai
22
The calculated attractions are not balanced with the
predicted attractions so we use the following equation in
an iterative procedure to balance them:
for destination zones X and Y
Where:
Ajm = Adjusted attraction, iteration m

Aj = Desired attraction
Aj(m-1) = Attraction, iteration m-1
Cj(m-1) = Actual attraction, iteration m-1
47
For the second iteration m= 2 X Y
Aj2 for zone X = A 604 396

B 604 1646
Aj2 for zone Y= C 790 960
Recalculating: D 1980 1220
Calc. 3978 4222
Attr., Ci
Pred. 3700 4500
Attr., Ai
23
In the same way we can get:
X Y Ti-j for origin zones, A,

B, C, D, total production
TB-X = 540 A 560 440 1000
TB-Y = 1710 B 540 1710 2250
TC-X = 730 C 730 1020 1750
TC-Y = 1020 D 1790 1410 3200
TD-X = 1790 Total calculated 3620 4580 8200
Attraction, Ci
TD-Y = 1410 Total predicted 3700 4500 8200
attraction Ai
The results are now closer and with a few more iterations
they can be much more closer to the predicted attractions
49
24

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‫‪Transportation and Traffic‬‬

‫‪Trip Generation/Trip Distribution‬‬

‫‪Dr. Sherif El-Badawy‬‬

‫‪3rd Year Civil‬‬

‫معهد مصر العالي للهندسة والتكنولوجيا – قسم الهندسة المدنية ‪ -‬المنصورة‬

‫معهد مصر العالي للهندسة والتكنولوجيا – قسم الهندسة المدنية ‪ -‬المنصورة‬

‫ المنصورة‬- ‫معهد مصر العالي للهندسة والتكنولوجيا – قسم الهندسة المدنية‬

(Fricker, J. D. and Whitfor R. K. 2004)

‫ المنصورة‬- ‫معهد مصر العالي للهندسة والتكنولوجيا – قسم الهندسة المدنية‬

Home Work Work Shop

Trip ends are classified into Generations and Attractions

Recreational - Social School

‫ المنصورة‬- ‫معهد مصر العالي للهندسة والتكنولوجيا – قسم الهندسة المدنية‬

‫ المنصورة‬- ‫معهد مصر العالي للهندسة والتكنولوجيا – قسم الهندسة المدنية‬

Multiple Linear Regression Analysis

‫ المنصورة‬- ‫معهد مصر العالي للهندسة والتكنولوجيا – قسم الهندسة المدنية‬

‫ المنصورة‬- ‫معهد مصر العالي للهندسة والتكنولوجيا – قسم الهندسة المدنية‬

Based on Home interview surveys,

1) Home-Based Work (HBW)

2) Home-Based Education (HBED)

3) Home-Based Shopping (HBSH(

4) Home-Based Social (HBSO(

5) Home Based Other (HBO)

‫ المنصورة‬- ‫معهد مصر العالي للهندسة والتكنولوجيا – قسم الهندسة المدنية‬

1 1289 995 0.155 1031 1221 0.4635 5 2020

Multiple Linear Regression Analysis

‫ المنصورة‬- ‫معهد مصر العالي للهندسة والتكنولوجيا – قسم الهندسة المدنية‬

S P = No. of Trip Generations SA

Methods of Trip Distribution

1. Growth Factors Methods  Old

2. Synthetic Methods  More Rational

‫ المنصورة‬- ‫معهد مصر العالي للهندسة والتكنولوجيا – قسم الهندسة المدنية‬

‫ المنصورة‬- ‫معهد مصر العالي للهندسة والتكنولوجيا – قسم الهندسة المدنية‬

Uniform (Constant) Factor Method

Ti-j = Future No. of Trips between Zones I, j

‫ المنصورة‬- ‫معهد مصر العالي للهندسة والتكنولوجيا – قسم الهندسة المدنية‬

2 100 20 300 420 1260

3 200 300 20 520 3120

‫ المنصورة‬- ‫معهد مصر العالي للهندسة والتكنولوجيا – قسم الهندسة المدنية‬

Where Ei = Pi/pi and Ej = Aj/aj

Pi = future production (generation) of zone i,

1 100 200 6000

2 400 600 4000

3 500 300 3000

Note that this O/D matrix needs correction

‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪400‬‬ ‫‪600 1000 4000‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬

‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪500‬‬ ‫‪300‬‬ ‫‪800 3000 3.75‬‬

‫‪aj‬‬ ‫‪900‬‬ ‫‪400‬‬ ‫‪800‬‬

Average Factor Method

The process is iterated using successive values of

• The growth factor approaches unity

• and the successive values of t’ij and tij are within

‫ المنصورة‬- ‫معهد مصر العالي للهندسة والتكنولوجيا – قسم الهندسة المدنية‬

• Present trip distribution matrix has to be obtained first.

Determine and Compare:

Short Travel ?????????????? Matrix

‫ المنصورة‬- ‫معهد مصر العالي للهندسة والتكنولوجيا – قسم الهندسة المدنية‬

A limiting value when reached the trip will not made.

• Specific Generalized Cost

‫ المنصورة‬- ‫معهد مصر العالي للهندسة والتكنولوجيا – قسم الهندسة المدنية‬

(2) (2) (2)

(5) 19 (1) (4)

(3) (2) (3)