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SPC
Raw Data
What GOOD is it?
How can we ORGANIZE it?
170
16
145 7 174 137
180
14
8 169 146 187
162
16
160
163
166
161
183
15
168 151
7
142
176
161 6 5
15 4 1 16
0
15
171
16
4
6
17
What can we DO with this data
to make it more useful?
10
11
12
What can we DO with this data
to make it more useful?
Things we COULD do with this data
to make it more useful
137
142 136 140
145
146
146 141 145
148
151
154 146 150
155
156
157 151 155
158
160
160 156 160
161
161
162 161 165
162
162
163 166 170
165
166
166 171 175
166
167
168 176 180
169
170
171 181 185
174
174
175 186 190
176
179
180 191 195
183
187
192 196 200
195
Frequency Count Answers
137
142 136 140 1
145
146
146 141 145 2
148
151
154 146 150 3
155
156
157 151 155 3
158
160
160 156 160 5
161
161
162 161 165 7
162
162
163 166 170 7
165
166
166 171 175 4
166
167
168 176 180 3
169
170
171 181 185 1
174
174
175 186 190 1
176
179
180 191 195 2
183
187
192 196 200 0
195
BASIC SPC COURSE
Frequency
From 121 126 131 136 141 146 151 156 161 166 171 176 181 186 191 196 201
To 125 130 135 140 145 150 155 160 165 170 175 180 185 190 195 200 205
Frequency
HISTOGRAM COMPLETED
From 121 126 131 136 141 146 151 156 161 166 171 176 181 186 191 196 201
To 125 130 135 140 145 150 155 160 165 170 175 180 185 190 195 200 205
Bell Shaped Curve Over a Histogram
Frequency
<-------- Statistically 99.73% of all observations will be within the area of the Average +/- 3 SIGMA (Standard Deviations) -------->
9
1
Lower Upper
Tail --> <-- Tail
0
From 121 126 131 136 141 146 151 156 161 166 171 176 181 186 191 196 201 206
To 125 130 135 140 145 150 155 160 165 170 175 180 185 190 195 200 205 210
Although some of the following calculations are beyond the intent of the course, they are provided for purposes of illustration.
1. The Grand Average of all the bowling score data is 164.3. Does that look about right?
2. Statisticians calculate something called STANDARD DEVIATION to describe variation. We will NOT calculate STANDARD DEVIATION in
this class. For this data, the STANDARD DEVIATION is approximately 13.3.
Standard deviation is also called SIGMA. Maybe you've heard the team SIX SIGMA. Expected variation in a normal process is SIX SIGMA.
SIX SIGMA for our process is SIX times 13.3. That's approximately (80).
Statistically, we would describe this process as being centered at 164 with a total variation of 80.
Therefore, we would expect to see data in the range of 164 +/- 40. That's 124 to 204. Does that look about right?
We have only 39 data points. Do you think that if we had 1,000 data points from this process that we might eventually see a value as
low as 124 and as high as 204? Predicting that we will eventually see data outside of what we have actually observed is called
"statistical inference".
3. Try drawing a "bell shaped curve" over the histogram. Envision crushing down the sharp corners with a rolling pin, then dropping a
blanked over it. Draw the curve so that the skinny tails at the end go all the way out to 124 at the low end and 204 at the high end.
Central Limit Theorem
Frequency
<-------- Statistically 99.73% of all observations will be within the area of the Average +/- 3 SIGMA (Standard Deviations) -------->
<-------- 95% fall within the area of the Average +/- 2 SIGMA -------->
9
1
Lower Upper
Tail --> <-- Tail
0
From 121 126 131 136 141 146 151 156 161 166 171 176 181 186 191 196 201 206
To 125 130 135 140 145 150 155 160 165 170 175 180 185 190 195 200 205 210
Although some of the following calculations are beyond the intent of the course, they are provided for purposes of illustration.
4. Likewise the average +/- 2 sigma = 164.3 +/- (2 times 13.3). Or 164.3 - 26.6 = 137.7 and 164.3 + 26.6 = 190.9.
5. Similarly, the average +/- 1 sigma = 164.3 +/- (1 times 13.3). Or 164.3 - 13.3 = 151.0 and 164.3 + 13.3 = 177.6.
6. Why is this important? Because the rules for interpreting out-of-control signals on control charts, including X-Bar and R Charts are based
on this "Central Limit Theorem".
Bowling Score Statistics
Week For Each Group of Three Games, Calculate:
Number " X's " Total X-Bar Hi Game Low Game R (Range)
163
1 156 473 157.7 163 154 9
154
157
2 162 489 163.0 170 157 13
170
160
3 158 501 167.0 183 158 25
183
174
4 165 500 166.7 174 161 13
161
169
5 160 503 167.7 174 160 14
174
175
6 179 534 178.0 180 175 5
180
168
7 162 485 161.7 168 155 13
155
162
8 151 459 153.0 162 146 16
146
166
9 167 479 159.7 167 146 21
146
171
10 161 474 158.0 171 142 29
142
187
11 166 501 167.0 187 148 39
148
195
12 166 506 168.7 195 145 50
145
192
13 176 505 168.3 192 137 55
137
195 X-Double Bar = 164.3. Draw it in as a dotted centerline on this X-Bar Chart.
190 This is simply the average of the weekly averages.
185
180
175 X
170
165 _ _ _ _ X X X X X X
160 X X X
155 X X
150 X
145
140
135
130
High 163 170 183 174 174 180 168 162 167 171 187 195 192
Low 154 157 158 161 160 175 155 146 146 142 148 145 137
Range 9 13 25 13 14 5 13 16 21 29 39 50 55
Bowling X-Bar and R Charts with Plots
195 X-Double Bar = 164.3. Draw it in as a dotted centerline on this X-Bar Chart.
190 This is simply the average of the weekly averages.
185
180
175 X
170
165 _ _ _ _ X X X X X X
160 X X X
155 X X
150 X
145
140
135
130
High 163 170 183 174 174 180 168 162 167 171 187 195 192
Low 154 157 158 161 160 175 155 146 146 142 148 145 137
Range 9 13 25 13 14 5 13 16 21 29 39 50 55
QUIZ #1
Circle the Correct Answer
1 A frequency count is a simple statistical tool that totals the frequency that
each _________ has been observed.
a. Value
b. Defective Part
c. Perfect Part
d. None of the above
2 Once a we know the frequency that each value has been observed, it may be
useful to show this in the form of a _________.
a. Control Chart
b. Histogram
c. Bell Shape Curve
d. Lower Control Limit
4 When a histogram is used to draw a bell shape curve, we can begin to see
the concept of the "Central Limit Theorem" which states:
a. The values in the middle are observed most frequently.
b. Values far away from the grand average occur less frequently.
c. Both (a.) and (b.) are true.
d. None of the above.
70 R-Bar = 23.2.
65
60
55 R
50 R
45
40
35 R
30 R
25 R
20 R
15 R
10 R R R R
5 R
0 R
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 163 157 160 174 169 175 168 162 166 171 187 195 192
2 156 162 158 165 160 179 162 151 167 161 166 166 176
3 154 170 183 161 174 180 155 146 146 142 148 145 137
Average 158 163 167 167 168 178 162 153 160 158 167 169 168
High 163 170 183 174 174 180 168 162 167 171 187 195 192
Low 154 157 158 161 160 175 155 146 146 142 148 145 137
Range 9 13 25 13 14 5 13 16 21 29 39 50 55
X-Bar and R Chart
=
R
X= = UCL = L CL = A V E R A G E S
_
R= = UCL = L CL = N O N E* R A N G E S
* For subgroup size of less than seven, there is no lower control limit on the Range Chart.
SUM
_
X
R
X-Bar and R Chart
=
X = 164 . 3 UCL = 188 . 0 LCL = 140 . 6 A V E R A G E S
190
U P P E R L I M I T X-BAR
185
180
175
170
165
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = X - D O U B L E B A R (GRAND AVERAGE)
160
155
150
145
140 L O W E R L I M I T X-BAR
_
R = 23 . 2 UCL = 59 . 6 LCL = N O N E* R A N G E S
60
UPPER LI M I T R
45
30
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = R - B A R (AVERAGE "RANGE")
15
* For subgroup size of less than seven, there is no lower control limit on the Range Chart.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 163 157 160 174 169 175 168 162 166 171 187 195 192
2 156 162 158 165 160 179 162 151 167 161 166 166 176
3 154 170 183 161 174 180 155 146 146 142 148 145 137
SUM 473 489 501 500 503 534 485 459 479 474 501 506 505
_
X 158 163 167 167 168 178 168 153 160 158 167 169 168
R 9 13 25 13 14 5 13 16 21 29 39 50 55
Control Limits
for X-Bar and R Charts
1 Control limits are statistical boundaries that are put on control charts
to assist us in determining when a process "goes out-of-control".
4
An "out-of-control" signal on a control chart simply means that there
is statistical evidence that the process has changed - MORE THAN
WHAT COULD BE CLASSIFIED AS "NORMAL RANDOM VARIATION".
7 When calculating control limits for X-Bar and R Charts, we will use X-
Double Bar as the process AVERAGE. R-Bar will be used as a
measure of VARIABILITY.
Subgroup
For UCL and LCL of For LCL of For UCL of
Size X-Bar Chart Range Chart Range Chart
"n" A D D
2 3 4
X =
Line
k
= _
UCL _ = X+A R Upper
Control Limit
X . 2
= _
LCL _ = X-A R Lower
Control Limit
X . 2
_ (R+R+R +...R)
1 2 3 k
Center
R =
Line
k
_
UCL = D R Upper
Control Limit
R 4
_
LCL = D R Lower
Control Limit
R 3
X-Bar and R Chart
Control Limit Calculations
=
Center
13
_
Center
R = ( 9 + 13 + 25 + . . . 55 ) = 23.2
Line
13
R
X-BAR AND R CHART
=
X = 164 . 3 UCL = 188 . 0 LCL = 140 . 6 1 A V E R A G E S
190
U P P E R L I M I T X-BAR
1
185
180 3
2
2
175 1
1 3
1
170 3
1
1
2
1 2 2
165 2
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = X - D O U B L E B A R (GRAND AVERAGE)
1
2 1
2 3 2 2
160 1
2
1
2 3
155
3
150 2
3 3
145 3
140 L O W E R L I M I T X-BAR
_
R = 23 . 2 UCL = 59 . 6 LCL = N O N E* 3
R A N G E S
60
UPPER LI M I T R
45
30
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = R - B A R (AVERAGE "RANGE")
15
* For subgroup size of less than seven, there is no lower control limit on the Range Chart.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 163 157 160 174 169 175 168 162 166 171 187 195 192
2 156 162 158 165 160 179 162 151 167 161 166 166 176
3 154 170 183 161 174 180 155 146 146 142 148 145 137
SUM 473 489 501 500 503 534 485 459 479 474 501 506 505
_
X 158 163 167 167 168 178 168 153 160 158 167 169 168
R 9 13 25 13 14 5 13 16 21 29 39 50 55
Quiz #2
Circle the Correct Answer
1 A frequency count is a simple statistical tool that totals the frequency that
each _________ has been observed.
a. Value
b. Defective Part
c. Perfect Part
d. None of the above
2 Once a we know the frequency that each value has been observed, it may be
useful to show this in the form of a _________.
a. Control Chart
b. Histogram
c. Bell Shape Curve
d. Lower Control Limit
4 When a histogram is used to draw a bell shape curve, we can begin to see
the concept of the "Central Limit Theorem" which states:
a. The values in the middle are observed most frequently.
b. Values far away from the grand average occur less frequently.
c. Both (a.) and (b.) are true.
d. None of the above
8 Control Limits are statistical boundaries put on control charts that assist us
in determining if the plot of subgroup averages and ranges are out-of-
control.
a. TRUE b. FALSE
10 A process with great variation will typically have a big spread between the
largest and smallest values within a subgroup. This can be seen on the
_______ chart.
a. X-Bar
b. Range
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
and
CONFIDENCE INTERVALS
34% 34%
13% 13%
~ 2.5 % ~ 2.5 %
ZONE --> A- B- C- C+ B+ A+
<----------- ---------- >
+ / - 1 SIGMA
PROBABILITY --> 68 %
PROBABILITY --> 95 %
5 WHEN ONE OF THESE RULES HAS NOT BEEN VIOLATED, ANY VARIATION
IN DATA IS SAID TO BE "NORMAL AND RANDOM" AND THE PROCESS IS
"IN CONTROL".
1 Control Limits are statistical boundaries put on control charts that assist us
in determining if the plot of subgroup averages and ranges are out-of-
control.
a. TRUE
b. FALSE
3 A process with great variation will typically have a big spread between the
largest and smallest values within a subgroup. This can be seen on the
_______ chart.
a. X-Bar
b. Range
4 X-Bar and R charts do not tell us if the parts measured are within
specification. All they do is tell us when there is statistical evidence that a
true process change has occurred.
a. TRUE
b. FALSE
5 What percentage of the values fall within one standard deviation of the
process average (called "Zone C"):
a. 68%
b. 95%
c. 99.73%
6 What percentage of the values fall within TWO standard deviations of the
process average (Zone C and B combined):
a. 68%
b. 95%
c. 99.73%
7 What percentage of the values fall within THREE standard deviations of the
process average (Zone C, B and A combined):
a. 68%
b. 95%
c. 99.73%
8 What percentage of the values do we expect to fall above the X-Double Bar
line?
a. None
b. 50%
c. 100%
RULE #1 - OUTSIDE OF A CONTROL LIMIT
12
X-BAR CHART
X
9 UPPER CONTROL LIMIT
X
X ZONE A +
6 X X
x
X ZONE B +
3 X
X
X X ZONE C +
0 x AVERAGE
X ZONE C -
-3
X
X x ZONE B -
-6
ZONE A -
-9 X
LOWER CONTROL LIMIT
-12
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
12
X-BAR CHART
X
9 UPPER CONTROL LIMIT
X
X ZONE A +
6 X X
x
X ZONE B +
3 X
X
X X ZONE C +
0 x AVERAGE
X ZONE C -
-3
X
X x ZONE B -
-6
ZONE A -
-9 X
LOWER CONTROL LIMIT
-12
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
12
X-BAR CHART
X
9 UPPER CONTROL LIMIT
X
X ZONE A +
6 X X
x
X ZONE B +
3 X
X
X X ZONE C +
0 x AVERAGE
X ZONE C -
-3
X
X x ZONE B -
-6
ZONE A -
-9 X
LOWER CONTROL LIMIT
-12
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
12
X-BAR CHART
X
9 UPPER CONTROL LIMIT
X
X ZONE A +
6 X X
x
X ZONE B +
3 X
X
X X ZONE C +
0 x AVERAGE
X ZONE C -
-3
X
X x ZONE B -
-6
ZONE A -
-9 X
LOWER CONTROL LIMIT
-12
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
12
X-BAR CHART
ZONE A +
6
ZONE B +
3
X x X
X X X x X ZONE C +
0 x AVERAGE
X
X X ZONE C -
-3 X X X
X ZONE B -
-6
ZONE A -
-9 X
LOWER CONTROL LIMIT
-12
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
12
X-BAR CHART
x ZONE A +
6
X
X X X ZONE B +
3
X X
ZONE C +
0 x AVERAGE
X ZONE C -
-3 X X
x
X X ZONE B -
-6 X
X ZONE A -
-9 X
LOWER CONTROL LIMIT
-12
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
12
X-BAR CHART
x ZONE A +
6
X
X ZONE B +
3 X
X x
X X ZONE C +
0 x AVERAGE
X
ZONE C -
-3 X X
X
X ZONE B -
-6
X
X X ZONE A -
-9
LOWER CONTROL LIMIT
-12
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
5 When a point falls outside of the control limits, the process is out-of-control.
Otherwise the process is said to be in control.
a. TRUE b. FALSE
6 Even when no plots fall outside the control limits, the process is out-of-
control if:
a. Seven consecutive points are above or below the average.
b. Seven consecutive points increase or decrease.
c. Two of three consecutive points fall 2 to 3 standard deviations from the
average (Zone A+, Zone A- or any combination of Zones A+ and A-).
d. Fifteen consecutive points fall within one standard deviation of the average
(Zones C+ and C-, never getting into the B or A zones).
e. There is a repeating pattern.
f. There is a "sawtooth" pattern indicating over-reaction to normal random
variation, thus ADDING to process variation.
g. ALL of the above.
h. NONE of the above.