December

Statistics Brief 2013

► Trends in the Transport Sector

Global Transport Trends in Perspective

This Statistics Brief describes longer-term developments in the different
transport modes, as measured by data collected by the International
Transport Forum at the OECD. General observations include:

 Following the economic crisis and the collapse of world trade in 2009,
most regions embarked on the path of recovery in 2010. Global trade
volumes transported by sea and air rebounded strongly.

 Due to continuous economic uncertainty, mainly in developed

economies, growth slowed in 2011 while preliminary data for 2012
shows further weakening.

 There is a marked difference in transport growth between emerging

and advanced economies, with emerging economies continuing to
outperform developed markets.

Maritime freight, measured in tonnes loaded, grew by 4% to 8.7 billion tonnes in 2011  Maritime
according to UNCTAD preliminary data. This is 6% above the pre-crisis peak in 2008. freight reflects
In tonne-miles, sea cargo grew by 5%, reaching 42.8 billion tonne-miles. The two-speed
movement of seaborne freight reflects the two-speed growth in the world economy, growth
with developing countries faring better than developed economies. Nine out of the ten in world
busiest container ports are all located in East and Southeast Asia (Figures 1 and 2). economy

Air freight transport rebounded in 2010 and grew 20% from the previous year to a  Stagnation
new high of 172 billion freight tonne-kilometres. However, air freight stagnated to zero and drop in
growth in 2011, followed by a 1.5% decline in 2012 (Figures 3 and 4). The slowdown air freight
in world trade growth and shifts in the commodity mix favouring sea transport are
among the factors contributing to the negative growth, according to IATA.

Rail freight tonne-km grew 3% in the OECD countries in 2011, reaching pre-crisis  Rail freight
levels. In the United States, rail freight volumes increased by 3% nearly reaching the grows in Russia
2008 level. The Russian Federation and China recorded a 6% and 7% growth in 2011 and China
respectively. The United States, Russia and China account for nearly 80% of total
estimated global rail freight (Figure 5). Preliminary 2012 data for rail freight, based on
our quarterly statistics, indicate stagnation in Europe and freight volume growth
turning negative in the United States.

Road freight in the OECD and European Union continue to stagnate below pre-crisis  Road freight:
levels. In 2011, the growth in tonne-kilometres slowed down both in the OECD and EU EU down 4%,
countries, increasing by only 1%. Emerging economies, especially China and India, China up 18%
continued to expand throughout the 2008-2011 period. Road freight tonne-km in
China and India increased 18% and 5% respectively (Figure 6). Our preliminary

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estimate for the EU area in 2012, covering 75% of the total road tonne-kilometres,
indicates a decline of around 4% for road freight.

Data on freight transport by inland waterways shows a rapid recovery in tonne-  Rapid recovery
kilometres in the OECD and the EU in 2010 after the decline in 2009. The growth in of inland water-
volume slowed down in the OECD in 2011 (+1%) and turned negative in the European ways
Union (-4%). The economic crisis had an impact also in China where tonne-kilometres
grew only by 4% in 2009. In 2010 and 2011, inland waterway freight volumes grew
again rapidly, by 24% and 16% respectively.

In 2011, air passenger-kilometres grew by 6.5% while the estimate for 2012 puts  Air transport
growth at 5.3%, reaching 5 330 billion passenger-kilometres or 2.85 billion grows in
passengers (Figure 8). The biggest growth in passenger numbers took place in markets linked
markets linked to emerging economies. China, the second largest domestic passenger to emerging
air transport market, recorded the strongest growth. Traffic expanded by 9.5% economies
reaching 85.8 billion passenger-kilometres in 2012. The United States, with over
900 billion passenger-kilometres, remains the world’s largest domestic air travel
market albeit passenger-kilometres increased by only 0.8%. The international
passenger traffic increased by 6% in 2012. Middle Eastern carriers recorded the
strongest international PKM growth (15.4%) according to IATA.

Rail passenger-kilometres fell around 2% both in the OECD and the EU area in 2009  EU rail
after which the volume recovered back to the pre-crisis levels by 2011. However, passenger
there are marked differences in growth rate between individual countries. Outside traffic stable
Europe, available data for Russian Federation and Japan show close to zero growth in at pre-crisis
2011. Rail passenger-kilometres continue to show strong growth in China and India levels
with 10% and 8% increase respectively in 2011 compared with 2010 (Figure 9). India
and China account for nearly 70% of the estimated global rail passenger transport.
Preliminary data for 2012 show that passenger rail traffic for the EU area has
remained stable in 2012 at near pre-crisis levels.

Data on passengers-km travelled on buses and coaches are less detailed. In the  Mix of trends
European Union, bus passenger transport experienced high growth rates in the 1970s in bus and coach
and the 1980s (Figure 10). Recent data suggest a mix of trends in the EU countries. In travel
2011, bus transport grew in France (2.4%), Italy (1.0%) and Spain (9.5%) while it
declined in Bulgaria (-1.2%), Croatia (-4.2%), Denmark (-1.2%), Poland (-4.4%),
Romania (-1.5%) and the United Kingdom (-4.4%). Outside Europe, passenger-km
grew in Australia (2.3%), Mexico (3.3%) and the United States (0.1%) and fell in the
Russian Federation (-1.5%).

Over the past 10 to 15 years, the growth of passenger vehicle travel volumes has  Car use stagnant
decelerated in several high-income economies and in some growth has stopped or or falling in high-
turned negative. Figure 11 shows an index of passenger-km volumes in a selection of income countries
high-income economies from 1990 through 2011. The slowdown in growth is clear in
Germany. In France, car use is virtually unchanged since 2003. In Japan, car use has
been declining since 1999. In the United Kingdom growth is negative since 2007 and it
had slowed down considerably since 2003. The United States displays a decline since
around 2005 or even earlier.

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 Figure 1. World seaborne trade 2008-2011
Million tonnes and billion tonne-miles and annual % change

Tonnes loaded (millions) Tonne-miles (billions)

45 000 +5%
+11%
40 000 -6%
35 000
30 000
25 000
20 000
15 000
-5% +7% +4%
10 000
5 000
0
2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport 2012.

Figure 2. The 10 leading world ports in terms of container traffic

20 foot equivalent units (TEU) and annual % change

2008 2012
35 +16%
+6%

30
-6%
25 +7%

20 +27% +50%
+34% +41%
15 +12%
+45%

10

Source: Based on World Shipping Council and Containerisation International. TEU: Container traffic measured in
twenty-foot equivalent unit as all containers handled, including full, empty and transhipped containers.

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 Figure 3. World airline revenue traffic
Total and international

Total Freight Tonne-km (billions) International Freight Tonne-km (billions)

190 +20% 0% -2%

180
-1%
170
160 -9% +22% 0% -2%
150 -1%
140
-9%
130
120
110
100
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*

Source: Based on IATA Annual Review 2013 and ICAO Annual Report of the Council 2011. Data for
2012 a preliminary estimate.

Figure 4. Air freight volume by country

Thousand tonnes and annual % change

2 010 2 011

30000
Thousands

-1.4%
25000

20000

15000

10000 +1.0%

-4.8%
5000 +4.6% -4.6%
-3.9% -4.0% -1.5% +0.9% -8.3%

0
USA China Japan Germany Hong South France United India Chinese
PRC Kong SAR Korea Kingdom Taipei

Source: Airport Council International.

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 Figure 5. Rail freight
Billion tonne-kilometres and annual % change

2008 2009 2010 2011

4000
+10% +3%
3500 -12%

+7%
3000 +10%
+10%
+1% +3%
-14%
2500
+6%
+8%
-12%
2000

1500

1000
+7% +9%
-18% +7%
500

0
OECD EU27 Russia China India United States

Source: International Transport Forum. 2010 and 2011 data for India are not available. Data for Italy
estimated for 2011.

Figure 6. Road freight (Billion tonne-kilometres)

2008 2009 2010 2011

6000

+18%
-7% +5% +1%
5000
+17%

+13%
4000

3000

2000 -10% +3% +1%

+10% +10% +5%

1000

0
OECD EU27 China India

Source: International Transport Forum. Data for Canada, Greece, Italy, United Kingdom and United
States estimated for 2011. Data for Malta not available.

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 Figure 7. Inland waterways freight
Billion tonne-kilometres

2008 2009 2010 2011

3000
+16%

2500 +24%

2000 +4%

1500

1000

-9% +9% +1%

500 -6% +7% +2%

-12% +14% -4%

0
OECD EU27 China United States

Source: International Transport Forum. Data for Switzerland estimated for 2011.

Figure 8. World total air passenger traffic – international and domestic

Billion passenger-kilometres

International Domestic Total

Total
3600 5 400

3100 5 200

5 000
2600
4 800
2100
4 600
1600
4 400
1100 4 200

600 4 000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*
Source: Based on IATA Annual Review 2013 and ICAO Annual Report of the Council 2011. Data for 2012
a preliminary estimate.

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 Figure 9. Rail passenger traffic
Billion passenger-kilometres and annual % change

2008 2009 2010 2011

1200

+8%
1000 +10%
-2% +1% +1% +8%
+11%
+1%
800

600

-2% 0% +2% -3% 0% -1%

400

200 -14% -8% +1%

0
OECD EU27 Russia China India Japan
Source: International Transport Forum. Note: 2011 data for India are not available. Japan 2011
estimated based on ITF quarterly statistics.

Figure 10. Passenger transport by bus in the EU

Billion passenger-kilometres

600

550

500

450

400

350

300

250

200
1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

Source: International Transport Forum. European Union excludes Ireland, Luxembourg and Malta.

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 Figure 11. Passenger-kilometres by private car
1990=100
160

Germany
150

140
Australia
France
130

United States
120 high estimate Sweden

110 Japan
UK

100
United States
low estimate
90

80
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: International Transport Forum. The Federal Highway Administration estimate of vehicle
occupancy in the US has been revised for 2009 based on the 2009 National Household Travel
Survey (NHTS), resulting in a lower occupancy rate than previously. High estimate applies the
vehicle occupancy based on 2001 NHTS while low estimate is based on a gradual decline from
2001 rate to 2009 rate.

If you would like to receive further issues of the Statistics Brief or more
information, please contact: Mr Mario Barreto (mario.barreto@oecd.org),
Mr Edouard Chong (edouard.chong@oecd.org) or Mr Jari Kauppila
(jari.kauppila@oecd.org).

For additional information on our transport statistics, go to

http://internationaltransportforum.org/statistics/index.html