TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING

I. TRIP GENERATION

Trip generation is the first step in the conventional four-step transportation

planning process, widely used for forecasting travel demands. It predicts the
number of trips originating in or destined for a particular traffic analysis zone. Trip
generation uses trip rates that are averages for a large segment of the study
area. Trip productions are based on household characteristics such as the
number of people in the household and the number of vehicles available. For
example, a household with four people and two vehicles may be assumed to
produce 3.00 work trips per day. Trips per household are then expanded to trips
per zone. Trip attractions are typically based on the level of employment in a
zone. For example, a zone could be assumed to attract 1.32 home-based work
trips for every person employed in that zone. Trip generation is used to calculate
person trips.
II. TRIP DISTRIBUTION

Trip distribution is the second component in the traditional four-step

transportation planning (or forecasting) model. This step matches trip makers’
origins and destinations to develop a “trip table,” a matrix that displays the
number of trips going from each origin to each destination.
 The Trip Distribution Model is the Fratar Method. This method assumes that
the tripmaking pattern will remain the same in the future as it is in the base year.
Also, the volume will increase according to the growth in the generating and
attracting zones. Future trip ends are computed using the following formula:

III. MODE CHOICE

Mode choice analysis is the third step in the conventional four-step

transportation planning model. Trip distribution's zonal interchange analysis yields
a set of origin– destination tables which tell where the trips will be made; mode
choice analysis allows the modeler to determine what mode of transportation
will be used. Mode choice is one of the most critical parts of the travel demand
modeling process. It is the step where trips between a given origin and
destination are split into trips using transit, trips by car pool or as automobile
passengers and trips by automobile drivers.
IV. TRIP ASSIGNMENT

Trip assignment, traffic assignment, or route choice concerns the selection

of routes (alternative called paths) between origins and destinations in
transportation networks. It is the fourth step in the conventional transportation
planning model. To determine facility needs, as well as costs and benefits,
the number of travelers on each route and link of the network should be
known. Once trips have been split into highway and transit trips, the specific
path that they use to travel from their origin to their destination must be
found. These trips are then assigned to that path in the step called traffic
assignment.