RELIABILITY-BASED MANAGEMENT OF BURIED PIPELINES

CONSIDERING EXTERNAL CORROSION DEFECTS

A Thesis

Presented to

The Graduate Faculty of The University of Akron

In Partial Fulfillment

of the Requirement for the Degree

Master of Science

Seyedeh Azadeh Miran

August, 2016

ii

RELIABILITY-BASED MANAGEMENT OF BURIED PIPELINES

CONSIDERING EXTERNAL CORROSION DEFECTS

Seyedeh Azadeh Miran

Thesis

Approved: Accepted:

Advisor

Dr. Qindan Huang

Department Chair

Dr. Wieslaw K. Binienda

Committee Member

Dr. Ping Yi

Interim Dean of the College

Dr. Eric J. Amis

Committee Member

Dr. Shengyong Wang

Dean of the Graduate School

Dr. Chand Midha

Date

ABSTRACT

Corrosion is one of the main deteriorating mechanisms that degrade the energy

pipeline integrity, due to transferring corrosive fluid or gas and interacting with corrosive

environment. Corrosion defects are usually detected by periodical inspections using inline inspection (ILI)
methods. In order to ensure pipeline safety, this study develops a

cost-effective maintenance strategy that consists of three aspects: corrosion growth model

development using ILI data, time-dependent performance evaluation, and optimal

inspection interval determination. In particular, the proposed study is applied to a

cathodic protected buried steel pipeline located in Mexico.

First, time-dependent power-law formulation is adopted to probabilistically

characterize growth of the maximum depth and length of the external corrosion defects.

Dependency between defect depth and length are considered in the model development

and generation of the corrosion defects over time is characterized by the homogenous

Poisson process. The growth models unknown parameters are evaluated based on the ILI
data through the Bayesian updating method with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)

simulation technique. The proposed corrosion growth models can be used when either

matched or non-matched defects are available, and have ability to consider newly

generated defects since last inspection. Results of this part of study show that both depth

iv and length growth models can predict damage quantities reasonably well and a strong

correlation between defect depth and length is found.

Next, time-dependent system failure probabilities are evaluated using developed

corrosion growth models considering prevailing uncertainties where three failure modes,

namely small leak, large leak and rupture are considered. Performance of the pipeline is

evaluated through failure probability per km (or called a sub-system) where each subsystem is considered as
a series system of detected and newly generated defects within

that sub-system. Sensitivity analysis is also performed to determine to which incorporated

parameter(s) in the growth models reliability of the studied pipeline is most sensitive. The

reliability analysis results suggest that newly generated defects should be considered in

calculating failure probability, especially for prediction of long-term performance of the

pipeline and also, impact of the statistical uncertainty in the model parameters is

significant that should be considered in the reliability analysis.

Finally, with the evaluated time-dependent failure probabilities, a life cycle-cost

analysis is conducted to determine optimal inspection interval of studied pipeline. The

expected total life-cycle costs consists construction cost and expected costs of

inspections, repair, and failure. The repair is conducted when failure probability from any

described failure mode exceeds pre-defined probability threshold after each inspection.

Moreover, this study also investigates impact of repair threshold values and unit costs of

inspection and failure on the expected total life-cycle cost and optimal inspection interval

through a parametric study. The analysis suggests that a smaller inspection interval leads

to higher inspection costs, but can lower failure cost and also repair cost is less significant

compared to inspection and failure costs.

CHAPTER I

INTRODUCTION

1. Research Motivation

Pipelines have been increasingly used as an efficient and economic means for the

transportation of large quantities of crude oil, petroleum product, and natural gas. For

example, there are approximately 37,008 km of natural gas and liquids transmission

pipelines in Mexico (Wikipedia 2013), thus it is a big challenge to maintain such a vast

network system safely across the country. Therefore, it is mandatory to determine a

practical strategy for inspection and monitoring of energy pipeline to have safe operation.

Corrosion is one of the main deteriorating mechanisms that degrade integrity of

different structures and infrastructures and its impact have been investigated on

steel/concrete bridges (Sajedi et al. 2016, Sajedi & Huang 2015a ), buildings (Shekarchi

et al. 2012), and energy pipelines (Miran et al. 2016a). Particularly, corrosion is a

dynamic threat to during their service lives that threatens their integrity. The damage

evolution on pipelines due to corrosion is a dynamic, complex destructive phenomenon

and is influenced by many factors such as physical and mechanical properties of the

pipeline and pipeline surrounding environment (Ahammed and Melchers 1997). External

corrosion is most commonly found on underground pipelines with an average occurrence

time of 0.2 years (Alamilla et al. 2009) due to the direct contact of the pipeline with the

aggressive environment. Figure 1.1 shows two examples of typical external corrosion on

buried steel pipelines.

Periodical inspection and maintenance, as a key component of pipeline corrosion

management program, is an effective mean to maintain integrity and safe operation of

pipelines and prevent corrosion related failures (Alamilla et. al 2009). Therefore, highregulation in-line
inspection (ILI) devices (that also refer to smart pigging technologies)

such as magnetic flux leakage (MFL) device, is widely used to detect corrosion defect
characteristics (e.g., defect depth, axial length, and width) through the pipeline. Figure

1.2 indicates an ILI device going through a pipeline and performing an inspection. The

measured data obtained from ILI inspections provide valuable information about

corrosion defects and can be further used to evaluate performance of pipeline.

1.1 Corrosion Defect Growth Models

Various formulations of corrosion defect growth models have been adopted in the

previous studies. One of the commonly used formulations is linear function of time for

defect depth and length growth models, where rate of growth is assumed to be constant

over time (e.g., Alamilla & Sosa 2008, Li et al. 2009, Salama & Maes 2014, Zhang &

Zhou 2014). However, this assumption is only valid when corrosion is in the stable stage.

Additionally, in order to estimate corrosion rate, this linear formulation requires using

field data from the same defects that identified in at least two consecutive inspections,

which may not be always available for some cases. Meanwhile, many researchers use a

power-law function of time as formulation for defect growth models (e.g., Caleyo et al.

2009, Velazquez et al. 2009, Alamilla et al. 2009, Nahal & Khelif 2014, Miran et al.

2016a). The power-law formulation can consider non-constant damage growth rate over

time, and it does not require same defects identified in two consecutive inspections.

Caleyo et al. (2009) and Velazquez et al. (2009) adopted the power-law formulation for

pitting growth models in their studies, where they also related to model parameters with

the soil and the pipe characteristics through a multivariate regression analysis. Similarly,

Alamilla et al. (2009) considered various environmental factors such as pH, resistivity,

redox potential, and pipe–soil potential (incorporating cathodic potential) as independent

variables to assess model parameters in power-law formulation. In addition, Nahal &

Khelif (2014) used power-law formulation of defect growth models with incorporation of

a number of variables related to space random fields to consider corrosion distribution in

a pipeline. Furthermore, Miran et al. (2016a) employed a power-law formulation growth

model for the both depth and axial length of corrosion defect where dependency of this

two damage quantities (depth and length) are considered in the prediction of corrosion

defect over time.

When the power-low formulation is adopted, one needs to estimate the corrosion

initiation time. Alamilla et al. (2009) assumed damage can occur right after pipeline

installation due to the third party damages or static threats. Velazquez et al. (2009)

calculated the initiation time of defects using a regression analysis based on the soil

characteristics and thus the defects on the pipeline located in the same category of the soil

have been assumed to have the same deterministic initiation time. Gomes and Beck

(2014) also assumes same deterministic value of the initiation time for all detected

defects along the pipeline. Although, none of the previous studies have taken into account

the stochastic nature of the occurrence of corrosion defects, even if those defects are

located in a similar soil environment, Miran et al. (2016a) has taken into account the

stochastic nature of occurrence of the defects that will be described more in this study.

1.2 Reliability Analysis of Pipeline

To evaluate the pipeline performance, reliability analysis has been used to assess

failure probability of aging pipelines considering different failure modes (e.g, small leak

and burst failure modes) by many researchers in the last decades (e.g. Maes & Salama

2008, Teixeira et al 2008, Amirat et al 2009, Li et al 2009, Karami 2012, Younsi et al

2013, Nahal & Khelif 2014). Failure probability of a pipeline due to external corrosion

can be evaluated based on the probabilistic growth model of the corrosion defect

incorporating field data (i.e., ILI data). For example, Li et al (2009) conducted MonteCarlo simulation to
evaluate reliability of a pipeline, where they considered each defect

as a component and the whole pipeline as a series system. Treating the whole length of

the pipeline as one system is somewhat unrealistic, because it indicates that if failure

happens for one defect, the whole pipeline fails. Moreover, Nahal & Khelif (2014)
adopted first order reliability method (FORM) method for the reliability analysis, where

only burst failure mode is considered.

1.3 Optimal Inspection Scheduling

Due to large uncertainties involved in the corrosion deterioration process, reliabilitybased approaches have
been used to develop maintenance and inspections scheduling for

pipelines.

In the literature, basically there are two approaches used to determine inspection interval. In

the first approach, maintenance interval is scheduled to prevent estimated failure

probabilities of pipeline to exceed a target failure probability that is used as repair criteria

and are usually defined by owners, decision makers or codes (Pandey 1998, Hallen et al.

2003). For example, Pandey (1998) studied a single-component system (i.e., 1 km of

pipeline) and inspection time is determined when the burst failure probability exceeds a

target probability of failure of 10-3

. Also, imperfection of inspection tools in detecting

defect and measurement error are considered in his study. Hallen et al. (2003) calculated

time to next inspection when time-dependent failure probabilities of small leak and burst

failure modes exceed predefined target failure probability of 10-4

In the second approach, life-cycle cost analysis is used to determine optimal

inspection/maintenance interval for the pipeline, where normally safety factor-based

repair criteria are used (Sahraoui et al. 2013, Gomes and Beck 2014, Zhang and Zhou

2014). The maintenance program should be optimized, since a too short inspection

interval can result in unnecessary inspections and thus unnecessary inspection cost,

whereas a too long inspection interval may lead to serious safety issues and economic

losses due to pipeline failures caused by defects that are not detected and repaired in a
proper schedule. For example, Sahraoui et al. (2013) used life-cycle cost analysis to

determine optimal inspection interval, where the life-cycle cost consists of three

components: inspection, repair, and failure costs. To calculate each cost component, an

event-based decision tree is considered for different scenarios/possible events of

inspection and repair actions for defects (e.g., detected and repaired, not detected and

repaired) through the life time of pipeline. The likelihood of the occurrence of each

individual scenario and its corresponding cost are incorporated in the decision tree. By

using various discrete time intervals, the optimal inspection interval is obtained when

total expected cost reaches minimum. Gomes and Beck (2014) used a simulation-based

approach to determine the optimal inspection interval for buried pressurized pipelines by

minimizing the expected life-cycle cost. In their study, total expected life-cycle cost

includes the costs of construction, inspections, repair, and failure.

2. Objectives of the Thesis

In this study, firstly, the probabilistic predictive time-dependent growth models of

maximum depth (i.e. in the through pipe wall thickness direction) and maximum axial

length (i.e. in the longitudinal direction of the pipeline) of the corrosion defects are

developed with consideration of the dependency between depth and length of the defects,

which is ignored in most literatures. In the proposed prediction models, Bayesian

updating approach is adopted to determine statistical inferences of the model parameters

using the ILI data. Next, with the developed corrosion growth models the performance of

the pipeline is evaluated through time-dependent failure probabilities using reliability

analysis considering three failure modes (small leak, large leak, and rupture),

incorporating all prevailing uncertainties in the model parameters and physical and

geometrical characteristics of pipeline. Lastly, optimal maintenance interval of the

pipeline is determined by minimizing the expected life-cycle cost that consists of pipeline

construction cost, inspection cost, repair cost, and failure cost. In addition, sensitivity
analysis is performed to determine to which parameters the reliability of pipeline is more

sensitive.

Results and outcomes of the research will be helpful and practical for the industries

that work on the integrity and maintenance policies of the energy pipelines in order to

evaluate the pipeline performance, develop the optimal inspection intervals, and

determine defect mitigation plans that can satisfy economic effectiveness, safety and

resource constraints. The models, formulations, and methodologies developed in this

thesis can be applied to different infrastructure systems such as water resource

management systems.

3. Structure of the Thesis

This thesis consists of five Chapters. Chapter I presents a brief introduction of the

background, objectives, and scope of this study. Chapters II, III and IV form main body

of the thesis that contain core context of the published journal paper (ASCE Journal of

Infrastructure systems) and the submitted manuscript to NACE Corrosion Risk

Management Conference, respectively. In particular, Chapter II presents the probabilistic

growth models to characterize growth of depth and length of the corrosion defects on a

steel gas pipeline based on data obtained from ILI. Chapter III presents time-dependent

system reliability analysis of a corroded pipeline considering external corrosion using

first order reliability method (FORM) where both generation and growth of the defects

are considered. Sensitivity analysis is performed to determine to which model parameters

reliability analysis is more sensitive. Chapter IV presents a life-cycle cost methodology to

determine the optimal inspection interval for the pipeline with respect to external

corrosion by minimizing expected life-cycle cost. Impact of different cost components on

the expected life-cycle cost and optimal maintenance interval is investigated in this

Chapter. Finally, Chapter V is the conclusions of this study.

CHAPTER II

DEVELOPMENT OF PROBABILISTIC CORROSION GROWTH MODEL

CONSIDERING INSPECTION DATA

1. Introduction

Steel pipelines are subjected to many possible hazards during their service lives, and

the integrity of the pipelines is at risk when a dynamic threat such as corrosion is present.

The damage evolution on pipelines due to corrosion is a dynamic, complex destructive

phenomenon and is influenced by many factors such as the physical and mechanical

properties of the pipeline and pipeline surrounding environment (Ahammed and Melchers

1997). External corrosion is most commonly found on underground pipelines with an

average occurrence time of 0.2 years (Alamilla et al. 2009) due to the direct contact of the

pipeline with the aggressive environment. The external corrosion on the pipeline buried

in soil can be considered as a multiscale process, and the core of this process is an

electrochemical process at the metal surface, which is highly influenced by the

film/droplet formation on the metal, the geometry and liquid phase chemistry of such

films, as well as the development of oxide layers on the metal surface (Cole and Marney

2012).

To develop effective pipeline operation, maintenance, and rehabilitation management

strategies, one needs to estimate dimension growth of corrosion defects over time

typically through developing predictive defect growth models based on field inspection

data. Such field data are usually obtained by in-line inspection (ILI) tools (such as

“pigging” technologies) that use ultrasound devices to detect and size depth and axial

length of the defects.

Various formulations of defect growth models have been adopted in the literature.

One of the commonly used formulations is linear function of time for defect depth and

length growth models, where rate of growth is assumed to be constant over time (e.g.,
Alamilla & Sosa 2008, Li et al. 2009, Salama & Maes 2014, Zhang & Zhou 2014).

However, this assumption is only valid when corrosion is in the stable stage.

Additionally, in order to estimate the corrosion rate, this linear formulation requires using

the field data from the same defects that identified in at least two consecutive inspections,

which may not be available for some cases. Due to those reasons, many researchers use

another formulation that is a power-law function of time for defect growth models (e.g.,

Caleyo et al. 2009, Velazquez et al. 2009, Alamilla et al. 2009, Nahal & Khelif 2014).

The power-law formulation can consider non-constant damage growth rate over time, and

it does not require the same defects identified in two consecutive inspections. Caleyo et

al. (2009) and Velazquez et al. (2009) adopted the power-law formulation for pitting

growth models in their studies, where they also related the model parameters to the soil

and the pipe characteristics through a multivariate regression analysis. Similarly,

Alamilla et al. (2009) considered various environmental factors such as pH, resistivity,

redox potential, and pipe–soil potential (incorporating cathodic potential) as independent

variables to assess the model parameters in the power-law formulation. In addition, Nahal

& Khelif (2014) used the power-law formulation of defect growth models with

incorporation of a number of variables related to space random fields to consider the

corrosion distribution in a pipeline.

When the power-low formulation is adopted, one needs to estimate the corrosion

initiation time. Alamilla et al. (2009) assumed damage can occur right after pipeline

installation due to the third party damages or static threats. Velazquez et al. (2009)

calculated the initiation time of defects using a regression analysis based on the soil

characteristics and thus the defects on the pipeline located in the same category of the soil

have been assumed to have the same deterministic initiation time. Gomes and Beck

(2014) also assumes the same deterministic value of the initiation time for all detected

defects along the pipeline. In summary, none of the previous studies have taken into

account the stochastic nature of the occurrence of the corrosion defects, even if those
defects are located in a similar soil environment.

As the environmental condition surrounding the pipeline is one of the key factors that

influence the corrosion evolution and it changes along the pipeline, one may need to

divide the whole length of the pipeline into a few continuous segments based on similar

environmental conditions (Shibata 1996, Caleyo et al. 2009, and Wang et al. 2015). Thus,

for each segment, it can be assumed that the growth of the corrosion damage can be

described by the same damage growth model. In particular, soil moisture has been

recognized as one of the critical causes for the external corrosion on pipelines in the

literature. For example, a lab experiment by Gupta & Gupta (1979) was performed in

three different soil types: sandy, sandy loam, and loamy. The results showed a close

correlation between the metal mass loss and soil moisture content, which also does not

depend on the soil type. Murray and Muran (1989) conducted another lab experiment on

two soil types (clay and sandy), and discovered that the corrosion density depended on

the soil moisture regardless of the soil type. Nie et al. (2009) found that the dissolved

oxygen that related to the soil moisture played an essential role in the kinetics of the

corrosion process. Sancy et al. (2010) also concluded from their experimental testing that

the external corrosion rate of the pipe submerged in water was an order of magnitude

greater than the one in sand.

In this study, the studied pipeline is divided into different segments based on more

important soil features defined by literature earlier. Power-law function of time is

adopted to determine probabilistic predictive growth models for two defect quantities,

maximum depth and length of corrosion defects. In particular, the correlation between the

defect depth and length growth models is considered, which is normally ignored in the

previous studies. The occurrence of defects is assumed to follow a Poisson process; thus,

the initiation time of each individual defect is considered to follow a Gamma distribution

assuming that the defect with a larger detected dimension occurs earlier. By treating the

initiation time of defects as a stochastic process, the proposed predictive models can
predict the future generated new defects since the last inspection. The unknown model

parameters are assessed based on ILI field data using a Bayesian updating approach

where Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation technique is adopted. Then the

developed growth models are validated using both simulated and ILI data.