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7. Probability Distributions

7.1. Counting Techniques

7.1.1 The Fundamental Counting Principles

“ Let E1 and E2 be two events. If E1 can be done in m ways , and after E1 has occurred E2 can be
done in n ways, then the event E1 followed by E2 can be done in m x n ways. “

Example 1:

How many ways can a president and a secretary be chosen from 3 candidates for president and 5 for
secretary?

Example 2:

How many 3 digit numbers can be made using the five digits 3, 6, 7, 8,9 when
a. Repetitions are not allowed

b. Repetitions are allowed

7.1.2 Tree Diagram

Example 3:
Let P1, P2, P3 be the candidates for president; S1, S2, S3, S4, S5 be the candidates for secretary.

7.1.3 Permutations

- refers to the arrangement of a set of objects in a definite or special order

- n! (n factorial) – product of whole number from 1 to n
- thus, the number of permutations P of n distinct objects is
P = n!

7.1.3.1 Permutations of Objects taken all together

n! = n (n-1) (n-2) (n-3)…

Example 4:
In how many specifichappen can three books, Statistics, Algebra and Biology be arrange on a shelf?

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Example 5:
How many different arrangements of letters can we form from the word MAPHY?

7.1.3.2 Permutations of n Objects taken r at a time

- the formula for the number of permutations of a set of objects from a set of n different
objects, taken r at a time , without replacement is,

nPr = n!
(n-r) !

- By definition 1! = 1 and 0! = 1

Example 6:
How many ways can 10 books be arranged 6 books at a time in a shelf?

7.1.3.3 Permutations of n Objects not all distinct

- The number of distinct permutations of n things of which n 1are of one kind, n2 of a second
kind . . . nk of a kth kind is

P= _____n!_____

n1! n2! . . . nk!

Example 7:
How many permutations can be made with the word STATISTICS?

7.1.3.4 Circular Permutations

- the number of permutations of n distinct objects arranged in a circle is

P = (n-1)!

Example 8:
How many ways can 6 cars be parked in a rotunda?

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7.1.4 Combinations
- refers to a collection of objects without regard to sequence or order in which they are chosen

7.1.4.1 Combinations of n Objects taken r at a time

n ___n!_
nCr = r = r! (n-r)!

Example 9:
How many committee of four members can be formed from 10 architects?

Example 10:
How many committee of five with two architects and three engineers members be formed from a
selection of six architects and eight engineers?

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7.1.4.1 Combinations of n things taken 1, 2, 3… n at a time

- the total number of combinations of n things taken successively 1 at a time, 2 at atime, 3 at a
time and so on is

C = 2n - 1

Example 11:
How many ways can a teacher assign at most 6 of her students to do a project?

Exercises:

1. How many permutations can be made with the word FORMALITY?

2. How many permutations can be made with the word CONCOCTION?
3. In how many ways can eight guests be seated in a round table?
4. A girl has 3 coins in her pocket, one-25centavo, a peso coin and a 5-centavo coin from which she
will draw two coins to pay some candies. She first draws out a coin then she takes another one.
Construct a tree diagram to show the probable outcomes.
5. 10 male and 7 female mathematics teachers applied for a teaching position. Only 7 teachers will
be accepted. In how many ways can they be employed if
a. 3 males are to be chosen
b. 3 or 4 males are to be chosen

7.1.5 Probability

7.1.5.1 Probability Terms and Definitions

sample space – the set of all possible outcomes of a statistical experiment (real or conceptual
experiments)

sample space 1 – dice

S1 = { 1,2,3,4,5,6}

sample space 2 – coin

S2 = { H,T}

event – is a subset of a sample space

A = {3,6}
A = {H}

Events may be classified into four types:

1. the null event is the empty subset of the sample space;
2. an atomic event is a subset consisting of a single element of the sample space

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3. a compound event is a subset consisting of more than one element of the sample space;
4. the sample space itself is also an event.

null set(Ø) – no elements at a;;

A= Ø

complement – of an event A with respect to S is the subset of all the elements of S that are not in A
- we denote complement of A by the symbol A’

A’ = {1, 2, 4, 5}
A’ = {T}

intersection – of two events A and B denoted by the symbol A B, is the event containing elements that
are common to A and B

Let A ={1,2,3,4,5}

B= {3,4,5,6}

A B = {3,4,5}

mutually exclusive – two events A and B are mutually exclusive or disjoint if A B =Ø, that is A and B have
no elements in common or if the event cannot both occur

Let A ={1,2,3,4,5}

B= {7,8,9}

A B=Ø

union = the union of two events A and B denoted by the symbol AUB, is the event containing all the
elements that belong to A or B or both

Let A ={1,2,3,4,5}

B= {7,8,9}

AUB = {1,2,3,4,5,7,8,9}

Relationships Among Events

Venn diagram.

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In a Venn diagram let the sample space be a rectangle and represent events by circles drawn inside the
rectangle.

Relationships Among Events

(not E ): The event “E does not occur”

(A & B ): The event “both A and B occur”

(A or B ): The event “either A or B or both occur ”

The Venn diagrams shown portray the difference between two events that are mutually exclusive and
two events that are not mutually exclusive.

7.1.5.2 Probability of an event

Probability means “chance” or likehood that an event may occur.

Basic Properties of Probabilities

Property 1: The probability of an event is always between 0 and 1, inclusive.

Property 2: The probability of an event that cannot occur is 0. (An event that cannot occur is called an
impossible event.)

Property 3: The probability of an event that must occur is 1. (An event that must occur is called a certain
event.)

Definitions of Probability:

1. A priori or classical definition of probability

- explains that probability is taken in terms of events that may or not may happe
- helpful in the development of the theory of probability

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Probability that event may happen, P

P = (h/h+f)

Probability that the event will not happen, Q

Q = (f/h+f)

P+Q=1

Example 1:
From a regular of deck of 52 playing cards, what is the probability of a king being drawn at random after
shuffling the cards?

Example 2:
A coin is tossed twice. What is the probability that at least one head occurs?

Example 3:
When a balanced die is rolled once, six equally likely outcomes are possible, as shown in figure. Use
probability notation to express the probability that the die comes up an even number.

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2. Empirical or relative frequency definition of probability

- application of probability in statistical records such as data obtained through experimentation and a
record of events over a period of time
- the usefulness of the empirical formula is not applicable to few cases but to very large number of cases
- a very important very important use is its application in insurance policies
- the ratio of h/f becomes obscure because f is infinitely large
Example 4:
Suppose a 16-year old boy is insured and his policy matures when he becomes 30 years old. Referring to
the table, we find that 95,965 persons are alive at 16 and 18,262 persons are alive at 30. Using the
figures find that probability that a 16-year old boy may reach 30.

Additive Rules

- applies to unions of events

- sometimes called probability of the union of two eventS
- if A and B are any two events, then
P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) – P (A B)

- if A and B are mutually exclusive

P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B)

- if A and A’ are complementary events

P(A) + P(A’ ) = 1

Example 5:
A bowl contains 4 red, 5 blue and 6 white chips. If a chip is taken at random what is the probability of
getting

a. an red or a blue chip

b. a red or a white chip

c. a blue or a white chip

d. not blue chip

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e. not blue nor white chip

Multiplicative Rules

- if A and B are independent events, the probability of A and B occurring is given by

P (A B) = P(A)P(B)

-If A and B are dependent events, the probability of A and B occurring is given by
P (A B) = P(A)P(B/A)

Example 6:
A box contains 4 blue chips and 5 red chips

a. if one chip is drawn at random what is the probability that it is blue?

b. if two chips are drawn at random what is the probability that both are red?

c. If two chips are drawn at random what is the probability that one is blue and the other is red?

Repeated Trials
- the probability that an event can occur exactly r times in n trials

P(n,r) = C(n,r)prqn-r
Where p is the probability that the event happen and q is the probability that the event can fail

At Least, At Most, and Inclusive

More generally, for any numbers x and y,
 “at least x” means “greater than or equal to x,”
 “at most x” means “less than or equal to x,”

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 “between x and y, inclusive,” means “greater than or equal to x but less than or equal to y. ”

Example 7:
There are 10 questions in an examination. The probability that an examinee will get the correct answer is
0.25. What is the probability that he will get:

a. exactly 7

b. at least 7 correct answers

The “ at least one” conditions

- the probability that an event can happen at least once in n trials

P=1-Q

Example 8:
In a shooting game, the probability that Kim, Ken, and Karla can hit the target is 1/3, ¼ and 1/6
respectively. What is the probability that the target will be hit if they all shoot at it once.

Assignment:
1. A pair of dice is rolled once. What is the probability of getting a 9?
2. A coin is tossed 3 times. What is the probability of getting
a. 3 tails
b. 2 tails and 1 head
3. A box contains 5 black balls and 3 red balls. Two balls are drawn in succession without
replacement. What is the probability of getting
a. 2 black balls
b. 1 black and 1 red.

CHAPTER 7: Probability Distributions