Primitivo C. Cal, Ph.D.

Executive Director, UP PLANADES

Former Undersecretary for Transportation
Former Dean , UP School of Urban & Regional Planning
Former Director, National Center for Transportation Studies
 2

OUTLINE

Current state of Metro Manila Transportation

Diagnosis

Prescriptions
EXISTING SITUATIONS
 4

Challenges: Based on the 1st Global Driver Satisfaction Index

developed by Waze, Metro Manila has “The worst traffic on earth”
 5

Economic cost of congestion

NOTES:
• 10% of 12.8
M trips
generated per
day is for
business
purposes
•Out of 3.98 M
of motor
vehicles
registered in
GCR in2011,
3.7% are trucks The Sunday Times, August 2006

The JICA Study (RTID, 2014) estimated the

Cost of traffic congestion at P2.4B per day
Economic Cost of Air pollution

• Health cost of air pollution in 4 cities (Metro

Manila, Cebu, Davao and Baguio) has been
estimated to be more than US$400 million
according to the Philippines Environment
Monitor (World Bank, 2002)
• 0.6% of the country’s GDP
Air Pollution in Metro Manila as of April 2015 as per the
DENR:
TSP = 130 µg/Ncm
PM10 = 62 µg/Ncm
DIAGNOSIS
 8

Rapid urbanization in the

Philippines

• About 30% in 1950 to about 70%

in 2015

Source: UN Population Division, 2005

 9

Study Area
Metro
Item
Manila
Area Sq Km 620
% of Total Phils. 0.2
Population In Thousands 11,856
% of Total Phils. 12.8
Ave. Growth Rate (2000- 1.79
2010: %)

GRDP PhP Billion 3,460

(2011: current)

% of Total Phils. 35.8

% by Primary 0.5
Sector
Secondary 17.0
Tertiary 82.5

Source: RTID, 2014

 10

City Size Distribution

P o p u l a t I o n
Population

City Rank
CIty Ra nk

PHILIPPINES THAILAND
Urban growth is highly concentrated in MM

P o p u l a t I o n
P o p u l a t I o n

CIty Ra nk CIty Ra nk

KOREA VIETNAM
 11

Urban form of Asian megacities: (a) Seoul, (b) Tokyo,

(c) Jabotabek, (d) Metro Manila, (e) Shanghai, (f) Bangkok

Urban form in MM is mono-centric

 12

Note the low capacity of the LRT system in MM

Asian MRTa and their daily ridership 2010
City Opening Length, Daily Car Remarks Urbanized Population
year 2010 passengers ownership densityb (greater
(km) (‘000) No./1,000 (persons MA),
population per ha) million

Seoul 1974 287 5,610 229 Rapid expansion, 230 24.5

rethinking for
alternative modes,
BRT

Metro 1984 52 948 50b No expansion due 206 21.4

Manila to financial
constraint, low
capacity

Shanghai 1995 423 3,560 95 Rapid expansion, 196 19.2

400 km by 2010
(using leasing fee)

Taipei 1996 101 1,270 244 Rapid expansion, 220 6.7

118 by 2010
Bangkok 1999 75 564 227b Uncertain 138 11.9
expansion plan

Source: STREAM compilation from city case studies

a Include only heavy rail system except the urban section of national rail (except Metro Manila which is the LRT system
b 2004 data
 Road
Length vs
Motorization
is very low in
Metro
Manila even
with
Road length km/1,000

relatively
low car
ownership
cars)
 14

SUMMARY OF DIAGNOSIS
• Rapid urbanization in the country with urban
growth concentrated in Metro Manila
• Urban form of Metro Manila is mono-centric
• LRT network limited with ridership of around
one million passengers per day compared to
more than 5.6 million in Seoul.
• Road length vs motorization is very low in MM
even with a relatively low car ownership level
PRESCRIPTIONS
 16

PROPOSED STRATEGY
• Reduce vehicular travel demand
- Land use planning to reduce concentration of urban growth in MM &
create multiple growth centers
- Encourage use of audio-video communications
- Traffic restraint
• Reduce concentration of trips in space
- Improve level of service, e.g. fleet modernization, & expand capacity of
public transport
- Traffic Management
- Expand highway network
• Reduce concentration of trips in time
- Traffic restraint
- Staggering of work and school hours
- Flexible working hours
THE DREAM PLAN
Main Projects included in the Dream Plan 18

Source: RTID, 2014

 19

Summary of Projects (Cost in P Million)

• Railway 1,051,982
• Road-based Public Transport 66,360
• Expressway 399,325
• Other Types of Road 391,107
• Traffic Management 6,109
• Airports 486,951
• Ports 52,085
Total 2, 610,450
 20
Proposed Mass-Transit Network for Mega Manila, 2030

Source: RTID, 2014

 21
Primary Road/Expressway Network for Dream Plan

Source: RTID, 2014

THANK YOU