Period Sales Time Forecast Sales Error Absolute error Absolute % error

Mar-07 72,962 1 94103.6 -21,142 21,142 29%

Jun-07 81,921 2 99466.2 -17,545 17,545 21%
Sep-07 97,729 3 104828.8 -7,100 7,100 7%
Dec-07 142,161 4 110191.4 31,970 31,970 22%
Mar-08 145,592 5 115554 30,038 30,038 21%
Jun-08 117,129 6 120916.6 -3,788 3,788 3%
Sep-08 114,159 7 126279.2 -12,120 12,120 11%
Dec-08 151,402 8 131641.8 19,760 19,760 13%
Mar-09 153,907 9 137004.4 16,903 16,903 11%
Jun-09 100,144 10 142367 -42,223 42,223 42%
Sep-09 123,242 11 147729.6 -24,488 24,488 20%
Dec-09 128,497 12 153092.2 -24,595 24,595 19%
Mar-10 176,076 13 158454.8 17,621 17,621 10%
Jun-10 180,440 14 163817.4 16,623 16,623 9%
Sep-10 162,665 15 169180 -6,515 6,515 4%
Dec-10 220,818 16 174542.6 46,275 46,275 21%
Mar-11 202,415 17 179905.2 22,510 22,510 11%
Jun-11 211,780 18 185267.8 26,512 26,512 13%
Sep-11 163,710 19 190630.4 -26,920 26,920 16%
Dec-11 200,135 20 195993 4,142 4,142 2%
Mar-12 174,200 21 201355.6 -27,156 27,156 16%
Jun-12 182,556 22 206718.2 -24,162 24,162 13%
Sep-12 198,990 23 212080.8 -13,091 13,091 7%
Dec-12 243,700 24 217443.4 26,257 26,257 11%
Mar-13 253,142 25 222806 30,336 30,336 12%
Jun-13 218,755 26 228168.6 -9,414 9,414 4%
Sep-13 225,422 27 233531.2 -8,109 8,109 4%
Dec-13 253,653 28 238893.8 14,759 14,759 6%
Mar-14 257,156 29 244256.4 12,900 12,900 5%
Jun-14 202,568 30 249619 -47,051 47,051 23%
Sep-14 224,482 31 254981.6 -30,500 30,500 14%
Dec-14 229,879 32 260344.2 -30,465 30,465 13%
Mar-15 289,321 33 265706.8 23,614 23,614 8%
Jun-15 266,095 34 271069.4 -4,974 4,974 2%
Sep-15 262,938 35 276432 -13,494 13,494 5%
Dec-15 322,052 36 281794.6 40,257 40,257 13%
Mar-16 313,769 37 287157.2 26,612 26,612 8%
Jun-16 315,011 38 292519.8 22,491 22,491 7%
Sep-16 264,939 39 297882.4 -32,943 32,943 12%
Dec-16 301,479 40 303245 -1,766 1,766 1%
Mar-17 334,271 41 308607.6 25,663 25,663 8%
Jun-17 328,982 42 313970.2 15,012 15,012 5%
Sep-17 317,921 43 319332.8 -1,412 1,412 0%
Dec-17 350,118 44 324695.4 25,423 25,423 7%

11. Barbara Lynch is the product manager for a line of skiwear produced by HeathCo Industries and privately bra
sale under several different names, including Northern Slopes and Jacque Monri. A new part of Ms. Lynch's job is
provide a quarterly forecast of sales for the northern United States, a region composed of 27 states stretching fro
to Washington. A 10-year sales history is shown: (c4p11) Sales ($000)
a. Because Ms. Lynch has so many other job responsibilities, she has hired you to help with the forecasting effor
would like you to prepare a time-series plot of the data and to write her a memo indicating what the plot appea
and whether it seems likely that a simple linear trend would be useful in preparing forecasts.
b. In addition to plotting the data over time, you should estimate the least-squares trend line in the form: SALES
( TIME ) Set TIME = 1 for 2007 Q 1 through TIME = 40 for 2016 Q 4. Write the trend equation : SALES = _ _ _ _ _ _
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ ( TIME ) ( Circle + or − as appropriate )

c. Do your regression results indicate to you that there is a significant trend to the data? Explain why or why not

d. On the basis of your results, prepare a forecast for the four quarters of 2017. Period TIME Sales Forecast (F1) 2
________________ 2017Q2 42 ________________ 2017Q3 43 ________________ 2017Q4 44 ________________

e. A year later, Barbara gives you a call and tells you that the actual sales for the four quarters of 2017 were: Q1
Q2 = 328,982, Q3 = 317,921, and Q4 = 350,118. How accurate was your model? What was the mean absolute per
error (MAPE)?
 Intercepts 88741
Slope 5362.6
MAPE 12%

Sales Forecast
350,000 800,000

300,000 700,000
f(x) = 5362.6226078799x + 88741.0115384615
600,000
250,000 R² = 0.8661979797
500,000
200,000 400,000

150,000 300,000
200,000
100,000
100,000
50,000 0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21
0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 Sal es Time
ustries and privately branded for
part of Ms. Lynch's job is to
f 27 states stretching from Maine

ith the forecasting effort. First, she

ng what the plot appears to show
asts.
d line in the form: SALES = a + b
on : SALES = _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ + / − _

Explain why or why not.

ME Sales Forecast (F1) 2017Q1 41

4 44 ________________

arters of 2017 were: Q1 = 334,271,

s the mean absolute percentage
 Forecast Sales

5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43

Sal es Time Foreca st Sa les

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9306975769
R Square 0.8661979797
Adjusted R Square 0.8626768739
Standard Error 24961.564000242
Observations 40

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 1.53E+11 1.53E+11 246.0017 3.48E-18
Residual 38 2.37E+10 6.23E+08
Total 39 1.77E+11

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%

Lower 95.0%
Intercept 88741.0115384616 8043.906 11.03208 2.08E-13 72456.97 105025 72456.97
Time 5362.6226078799 341.9072 15.68444 3.48E-18 4670.468 6054.777 4670.468

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted Sales Residuals

1 94103.6341463415 -21141.6
2 99466.2567542214 -17545.3
3 104828.879362101 -7099.88
4 110191.501969981 31969.5
5 115554.124577861 30037.88
6 120916.747185741 -3787.75
7 126279.369793621 -12120.4
8 131641.992401501 19760.01
9 137004.615009381 16902.38
10 142367.237617261 -42223.2
11 147729.860225141 -24487.9
12 153092.482833021 -24595.5
13 158455.105440901 17620.89
14 163817.728048781 16622.27
15 169180.35065666 -6515.35
16 174542.97326454 46275.03
17 179905.59587242 22509.4
18 185268.2184803 26511.78
19 190630.84108818 -26920.8
20 195993.46369606 4141.536
21 201356.08630394 -27156.1
22 206718.70891182 -24162.7
23 212081.3315197 -13091.3
24 217443.95412758 26256.05
25 222806.57673546 30335.42
26 228169.19934334 -9414.2
27 233531.821951219 -8109.82
28 238894.444559099 14758.56
29 244257.067166979 12898.93
30 249619.689774859 -47051.7
31 254982.312382739 -30500.3
32 260344.934990619 -30465.9
33 265707.557598499 23613.44
34 271070.180206379 -4975.18
35 276432.802814259 -13494.8
36 281795.425422139 40256.57
37 287158.048030019 26610.95
38 292520.670637899 22490.33
39 297883.293245779 -32944.3
40 303245.915853658 -1766.92
308608.538461538
313971.161069418
319333.783677298
324696.406285178
Upper 95.0%
105025
6054.777
Period Sales Time Predicted Sales Multiple Regression -- Result Formula from Forecast X Wizard
Mar-07 72,962 1 94103.6341463
Jun-07 81,921 2 99466.2567542 Sales = 86,135.79 + ( (Time) * 5,543.75 )
Sep-07 97,729 3 104828.879362
Dec-07 142,161 4 110191.50197 Accuracy Measures
Mar-08 145,592 5 115554.124578 AIC
Jun-08 117,129 6 120916.747186 BIC
Sep-08 114,159 7 126279.369794 MAPE
Dec-08 151,402 8 131641.992402 Sum Squared Error (SSE)
Mar-09 153,907 9 137004.615009 R-Square
Jun-09 100,144 10 142367.237617 Adjusted R-Square
Sep-09 123,242 11 147729.860225
Dec-09 128,497 12 153092.482833 Coefficients
Mar-10 176,076 13 158455.105441 Intercept 88741.0115
Jun-10 180,440 14 163817.728049 Time 5362.62261
Sep-10 162,665 15 169180.350657
Dec-10 220,818 16 174542.973265
202,415 17 179905.595872
Sales
Mar-11
211,780 18 185268.21848 250000
Jun-11
Sep-11 163,710 19 190630.841088
200000
Dec-11 200,135 20 195993.463696
Mar-12 174,200 21 201356.086304 150000
Jun-12 182,556 22 206718.708912
Sep-12 198,990 23 212081.33152 100000
Dec-12 243,700 24 217443.954128
50000
Mar-13 253,142 25 222806.576735
Jun-13 218,755 26 228169.199343 0
Sep-13 225,422 27 233531.821951
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17

Dec-13 253,653 28 238894.444559 Actual Foreca st Fi tted Val ues

Mar-14 257,156 29 244257.067167
Jun-14 202,568 30 249619.689775
Sep-14 224,482 31 254982.312383
Dec-14 229,879 32 260344.934991
Mar-15 289,321 33 265707.557598
Jun-15 266,095 34 271070.180206
Sep-15 262,938 35 276432.802814
Dec-15 322,052 36 281795.425422
Mar-16 313,769 37 287158.04803
Jun-16 315,011 38 292520.670638
Sep-16 264,939 39 297883.293246
Dec-16 301,479 40 303245.915854
Mar-17 334,271 41 308608.538462
Jun-17 328,982 42 313971.161069
Sep-17 317,921 43 319333.783677
Dec-17 350,118 44 324696.406285
ssion -- Result Formula from Forecast X Wizard

135.79 + ( (Time) * 5,543.75 )

Value Forecast Statistics

1,013.61 Durbin Watson (1)
1,015.39 Mean
11.44% Median
ed Error (SSE) 24,881,326,710.36 Standard Deviation
89.76% Variance
89.51% Mean Square Deviation

Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

8043.9062669373 11.0320792652 2.07783E-13 72456.97464 105025.0484
341.9071545242 15.6844410447 3.47946E-18 4670.46776 6054.777456

Sales
5
7
9
11
13
15
17

Actual Foreca st Fi tted Val ues

 Value
1.55
210,870.07
207,174.00
75,163.82
5,649,599,904.20
5,521,199,906.38

Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

72456.974636619 105025.04844
4670.4677596613 6054.7774561
Date SASSS Date SASSS Date SASSS TIME Date
Jan-02 1627 Jan-06 1745 Jan-10 1885 1 Jan-14
Feb-02 1588 Feb-06 1728 Feb-10 1885 2 Feb-14
Mar-02 1567 Mar-06 1776 Mar-10 1925 3 Mar-14
Apr-02 1578 Apr-06 1807 Apr-10 1891 4 Apr-14
May-02 1515 May-06 1800 May-10 1900 5 May-14
Jun-02 1520 Jun-06 1758 Jun-10 1888 6 Jun-14
Jul-02 1498 Jul-06 1784 Jul-10 1865 7 Jul-14
Aug-02 1522 Aug-06 1791 Aug-10 1921 8 Aug-14
Sep-02 1560 Sep-06 1743 Sep-10 1949 9 Sep-14
Oct-02 1569 Oct-06 1785 Oct-10 1923 10 Oct-14
Nov-02 1528 Nov-06 1765 Nov-10 1922 11 Nov-14
Dec-02 1556 Dec-06 1753 Dec-10 1894 12 Dec-14
Jan-03 1593 Jan-07 1753 Jan-11 1908 13 Jan-15
Feb-03 1527 Feb-07 1790 Feb-11 1855 14 Feb-15
Mar-03 1524 Mar-07 1830 Mar-11 1858 15 Mar-15
Apr-03 1560 Apr-07 1702 Apr-11 1941 16 Apr-15
May-03 1575 May-07 1769 May-11 1938 17 May-15
Jun-03 1588 Jun-07 1793 Jun-11 1901 18 Jun-15
Jul-03 1567 Jul-07 1801 Jul-11 1964 19 Jul-15
Aug-03 1602 Aug-07 1789 Aug-11 1963 20 Aug-15
Sep-03 1624 Sep-07 1791 Sep-11 1838 21 Sep-15
Oct-03 1597 Oct-07 1799 Oct-11 1877 22 Oct-15
Nov-03 1614 Nov-07 1811 Nov-11 1927 23 Nov-15
Dec-03 1644 Dec-07 1849 Dec-11 1911 24 Dec-15
Jan-04 1637 Jan-08 1824 Jan-12 1962 25 Jan-16
Feb-04 1617 Feb-08 1882 Feb-12 1980 26 Feb-16
Mar-04 1679 Mar-08 1859 Mar-12 1955 27 Mar-16
Apr-04 1607 Apr-08 1831 Apr-12 1967 28 Apr-16
May-04 1623 May-08 1832 May-12 1940 29 May-16
Jun-04 1619 Jun-08 1842 Jun-12 1963 30 Jun-16
Jul-04 1667 Jul-08 1874 Jul-12 1920 31 Jul-16
Aug-04 1660 Aug-08 1845 Aug-12 1937 32 Aug-16
Sep-04 1681 Sep-08 1811 Sep-12 1867 33 Sep-16
Oct-04 1696 Oct-08 1898 Oct-12 1918 34 Oct-16
Nov-04 1710 Nov-08 1878 Nov-12 1914 35 Nov-16
Dec-04 1694 Dec-08 1901 Dec-12 1931 36 Dec-16
Jan-05 1663 Jan-09 1916 Jan-13 1867 37 Jan-17
Feb-05 1531 Feb-09 1894 Feb-13 1887 38 Feb-17
Mar-05 1707 Mar-09 1883 Mar-13 1939 39 Mar-17
Apr-05 1707 Apr-09 1871 Apr-13 1860 40 Apr-17
May-05 1715 May-09 1918 May-13 1898 41 May-17
Jun-05 1735 Jun-09 1943 Jun-13 1924 42 Jun-17
Jul-05 1692 Jul-09 1905 Jul-13 1967 43 Jul-07
Aug-05 1695 Aug-09 1892 Aug-13 1994 44
Sep-05 1721 Sep-09 1893 Sep-13 1966 45
Oct-05 1698 Oct-09 1869 Oct-13 1943 46
Nov-05 1770 Nov-09 1867 Nov-13 1973 47
Dec-05 1703 Dec-09 1887 Dec-13 1976 48
Jan-14 1969 49
Feb-14 1989 50
Mar-14 2040 51
Apr-14 1976 52
May-14 1964 53
Jun-14 1947 54
Jul-14 1961 55
Aug-14 1931 56
Sep-14 1960 57
Oct-14 1980 58
Nov-14 1944 59
Dec-14 2014 60
Jan-15 2013 61
Feb-15 2143 62
Mar-15 2002 63
Apr-15 2090 64
May-15 2104 65
Jun-15 2114 66
Jul-15 2124 67
Aug-15 2098 68
Sep-15 2105 69
Oct-15 2206 70
Nov-15 2232 71
Dec-15 2194 72
Jan-16 2218 73
Feb-16 2271 74
Mar-16 2165 75
Apr-16 2253 76
May-16 2232 77
Jun-16 2237 78
Jul-16 2231 79
Aug-16 2278 80
Sep-16 2259 81
Oct-16 2231 82
Nov-16 2217 83
Dec-16 2197 84
Jan-17 2422 85
Feb-17 2112 86
Mar-17 2290 87
Apr-17 2354 88
May-17 2013 89
Jun-17 2156 90
Jul-07 2425 91
SASSS 18. The following data are for shoe store sales in the United States in millions of dol
1969 seasonally adjusted (SASSS).
1989
a. Make a linear trend forecast for SASSS though the first seven months of 2017. Gi
2040 actual seasonally adjusted values for 2017 were as shown below, calculate the MAP
1976 months of 2017. Date SASSS Jan-17 2,422 Feb-17 2,112 Mar-17 2,290 Apr-17 2,354 M
1964 17 2,156 Jul-17 2,425
1947
b. Reseasonalize the 2017 forecast and the 2017 actual sales using the following se
1961 Month SI Jan 0.74 Feb 0.81 Mar 1.00 Apr 1.03 May 1.04 Jun 0.98 Jul 0.98 Aug 1.23 S
1931 Nov 0.98 Dec 1.31
1960
1980 c. Plot the final forecast along with the actual sales data. Does the forecast appear
Explain.
1944
2014 d. Why do you think the April, May, August, and December seasonal indices are gre
2013
2143
2002
2090
2104
2114
2124
2098
2105
2206
2232
2194
2218
2271
2165
2253
2232
2237
2231
2278
2259
2231
2217
2197
nited States in millions of dollars after being

rst seven months of 2017. Given that the

wn below, calculate the MAPE for those seven
Mar-17 2,290 Apr-17 2,354 May-17 2,013 Jun-

l sales using the following seasonal indices:

4 Jun 0.98 Jul 0.98 Aug 1.23 Sep 0.96 Oct 0.94

ta. Does the forecast appear reasonable?

mber seasonal indices are greater than 1?

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.837743
R Square 0.701814
Adjusted R 0.698463
Standard E 78.58381
Observatio 91

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 1293570 1293570 209.471 4.13E-25
Residual 89 549612 6175.415
Total 90 1843182

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 1811.409 16.61237 109.0397 1.54E-96 1778.4 1844.417 1778.4 1844.417
Time 4.538892 0.313609 14.47311 4.13E-25 3.915758 5.162025 3.915758 5.162025

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation
Predicted SASSS
Residuals
1 1815.948 69.05232
2 1820.487 64.51343
3 1825.025 99.97453
4 1829.564 61.43564
5 1834.103 65.89675
6 1838.642 49.35786
7 1843.181 21.81897
8 1847.72 73.28008
9 1852.259 96.74118
10 1856.798 66.20229
11 1861.337 60.6634
12 1865.875 28.12451
13 1870.414 37.58562
14 1874.953 -19.9533
15 1879.492 -21.4922
16 1884.031 56.96894
17 1888.57 49.43005
18 1893.109 7.891161
19 1897.648 66.35227
20 1902.187 60.81338
21 1906.726 -68.7255
22 1911.264 -34.2644
23 1915.803 11.1967
24 1920.342 -9.34219
25 1924.881 37.11892
26 1929.42 50.58003
27 1933.959 21.04114
28 1938.498 28.50225
29 1943.037 -3.03665
30 1947.576 15.42446
31 1952.114 -32.1144
32 1956.653 -19.6533
33 1961.192 -94.1922
34 1965.731 -47.7311
35 1970.27 -56.27
36 1974.809 -43.8089
37 1979.348 -112.348
38 1983.887 -96.8867
39 1988.426 -49.4256
40 1992.964 -132.964
41 1997.503 -99.5033
42 2002.042 -78.0422
43 2006.581 -39.5811
44 2011.12 -17.12
45 2015.659 -49.6589
46 2020.198 -77.1978
47 2024.737 -51.7367
48 2029.276 -53.2756
49 2033.814 -64.8145
50 2038.353 -49.3534
51 2042.892 -2.89226
52 2047.431 -71.4312
53 2051.97 -87.97
54 2056.509 -109.509
55 2061.048 -100.048
56 2065.587 -134.587
57 2070.126 -110.126
58 2074.665 -94.6645
59 2079.203 -135.203
60 2083.742 -69.7423
61 2088.281 -75.2812
62 2092.82 50.17993
63 2097.359 -95.359
64 2101.898 -11.8978
65 2106.437 -2.43674
66 2110.976 3.024367
67 2115.515 8.485475
68 2120.053 -22.0534
69 2124.592 -19.5923
70 2129.131 76.8688
71 2133.67 98.32991
72 2138.209 55.79102
73 2142.748 75.25213
74 2147.287 123.7132
75 2151.826 13.17434
76 2156.365 96.63545
77 2160.903 71.09656
78 2165.442 71.55767
79 2169.981 61.01878
80 2174.52 103.4799
81 2179.059 79.94099
82 2183.598 47.4021
83 2188.137 28.86321
84 2192.676 4.324319
85 2197.215 224.7854
86 2201.753 -89.7535
87 2206.292 83.70764
88 2210.831 143.1688
89 2215.37 -202.37
90 2219.909 -63.909
91 2224.448 200.5521
Date Time SASSS SASSS MA4 SASSS CMA SASSS CMAT CF SF SI
Jan-10 1 1885 1815.947683 0.74
Feb-10 2 1885 1820.486574 0.81
Mar-10 3 1925 1896.5 1898.375 1825.025466 1.040191 1.014025 1
Apr-10 4 1891 1900.25 1900.625 1829.564357 1.03884 0.994936 1.03
May-10 5 1900 1901 1893.5 1834.103249 1.032385 1.003433 1.04
Jun-10 6 1888 1886 1889.75 1838.64214 1.027797 0.999074 0.98
Jul-10 7 1865 1893.5 1899.625 1843.181032 1.030623 0.981773 0.98
Aug-10 8 1921 1905.75 1910.125 1847.719924 1.033774 1.005693 1.23
Sep-10 9 1949 1914.5 1921.625 1852.258815 1.03745 1.014246 0.96
Oct-10 10 1923 1928.75 1925.375 1856.797707 1.036933 0.998766 0.94
Nov-10 11 1922 1922 1916.875 1861.336598 1.029838 1.002674 0.98
Dec-10 12 1894 1911.75 1903.25 1865.87549 1.020031 0.99514 1.31
Jan-11 13 1908 1894.75 1886.75 1870.414381 1.008734 1.011263 0.74
Feb-11 14 1855 1878.75 1884.625 1874.953273 1.005158 0.984281 0.81
Mar-11 15 1858 1890.5 1894.25 1879.492164 1.007852 0.980863 1
Apr-11 16 1941 1898 1903.75 1884.031056 1.010466 1.019567 1.03
May-11 17 1938 1909.5 1922.75 1888.569947 1.018098 1.007931 1.04
Jun-11 18 1901 1936 1938.75 1893.108839 1.024109 0.980529 0.98
Jul-11 19 1964 1941.5 1929 1897.647731 1.016522 1.018144 0.98
Aug-11 20 1963 1916.5 1913.5 1902.186622 1.005948 1.025869 1.23
Sep-11 21 1838 1910.5 1905.875 1906.725514 0.999554 0.964386 0.96
Oct-11 22 1877 1901.25 1894.75 1911.264405 0.991359 0.990632 0.94
Nov-11 23 1927 1888.25 1903.75 1915.803297 0.993708 1.012213 0.98
Dec-11 24 1911 1919.25 1932.125 1920.342188 1.006136 0.989066 1.31
Jan-12 25 1962 1945 1948.5 1924.88108 1.01227 1.006928 0.74
Feb-12 26 1980 1952 1959 1929.419971 1.015331 1.01072 0.81
Mar-12 27 1955 1966 1963.25 1933.958863 1.015146 0.995798 1
Apr-12 28 1967 1960.5 1958.375 1938.497754 1.010254 1.004404 1.03
May-12 29 1940 1956.25 1951.875 1943.036646 1.004549 0.993916 1.04
Jun-12 30 1963 1947.5 1943.75 1947.575538 0.998036 1.009904 0.98
Jul-12 31 1920 1940 1930.875 1952.114429 0.98912 0.994368 0.98
Aug-12 32 1937 1921.75 1916.125 1956.653321 0.979287 1.010894 1.23
Sep-12 33 1867 1910.5 1909.75 1961.192212 0.97377 0.977615 0.96
Oct-12 34 1918 1909 1908.25 1965.731104 0.970758 1.005109 0.94
Nov-12 35 1914 1907.5 1907.5 1970.269995 0.968141 1.003408 0.98
Dec-12 36 1931 1907.5 1903.625 1974.808887 0.963954 1.01438 1.31
Jan-13 37 1867 1899.75 1902.875 1979.347778 0.961365 0.981147 0.74
Feb-13 38 1887 1906 1897.125 1983.88667 0.956267 0.994663 0.81
Mar-13 39 1939 1888.25 1892.125 1988.425561 0.951569 1.024774 1
Apr-13 40 1860 1896 1900.625 1992.964453 0.953667 0.978625 1.03
May-13 41 1898 1905.25 1908.75 1997.503344 0.955568 0.994368 1.04
Jun-13 42 1924 1912.25 1929 2002.042236 0.963516 0.997408 0.98
Jul-13 43 1967 1945.75 1954.25 2006.581128 0.97392 1.006524 0.98
Aug-13 44 1994 1962.75 1965.125 2011.120019 0.97713 1.014694 1.23
Sep-13 45 1966 1967.5 1968.25 2015.658911 0.97648 0.998857 0.96
Oct-13 46 1943 1969 1966.75 2020.197802 0.973543 0.987924 0.94
Nov-13 47 1973 1964.5 1964.875 2024.736694 0.970435 1.004135 0.98
Dec-13 48 1976 1965.25 1971 2029.275585 0.971283 1.002537 1.31
Jan-14 49 1969 1976.75 1985.125 2033.814477 0.97606 0.991877 0.74
Feb-14 50 1989 1993.5 1993.5 2038.353368 0.977995 0.997743 0.81
Mar-14 51 2040 1993.5 1992.875 2042.89226 0.975516 1.023647 1
Apr-14 52 1976 1992.25 1987 2047.431151 0.970484 0.994464 1.03
May-14 53 1964 1981.75 1971.875 2051.970043 0.960967 0.996006 1.04
Jun-14 54 1947 1962 1956.375 2056.508935 0.951309 0.995208 0.98
Jul-14 55 1961 1950.75 1950.25 2061.047826 0.946242 1.005512 0.98
Aug-14 56 1931 1949.75 1953.875 2065.586718 0.945918 0.988292 1.23
Sep-14 57 1960 1958 1955.875 2070.125609 0.94481 1.002109 0.96
Oct-14 58 1980 1953.75 1964.125 2074.664501 0.946719 1.008082 0.94
Nov-14 59 1944 1974.5 1981.125 2079.203392 0.952829 0.981261 0.98
Dec-14 60 2014 1987.75 2008.125 2083.742284 0.963711 1.002926 1.31
Jan-15 61 2013 2028.5 2035.75 2088.281175 0.974845 0.988825 0.74
Feb-15 62 2143 2043 2052.5 2092.820067 0.980734 1.044093 0.81
Mar-15 63 2002 2062 2073.375 2097.358958 0.988565 0.965575 1
Apr-15 64 2090 2084.75 2081.125 2101.89785 0.990117 1.004265 1.03
May-15 65 2104 2077.5 2092.75 2106.436742 0.993502 1.005376 1.04
Jun-15 66 2114 2108 2109 2110.975633 0.999064 1.002371 0.98
Jul-15 67 2124 2110 2110.125 2115.514525 0.997452 1.006575 0.98
Aug-15 68 2098 2110.25 2121.75 2120.053416 1.0008 0.988806 1.23
Sep-15 69 2105 2133.25 2146.75 2124.592308 1.010429 0.980552 0.96
Oct-15 70 2206 2160.25 2172.25 2129.131199 1.020252 1.015537 0.94
Nov-15 71 2232 2184.25 2198.375 2133.670091 1.030326 1.015295 0.98
Dec-15 72 2194 2212.5 2220.625 2138.208982 1.038544 0.98801 1.31
Jan-16 73 2218 2228.75 2220.375 2142.747874 1.036228 0.99893 0.74
Feb-16 74 2271 2212 2219.375 2147.286765 1.033572 1.023261 0.81
Mar-16 75 2165 2226.75 2228.5 2151.825657 1.035632 0.971505 1
Apr-16 76 2253 2230.25 2226 2156.364548 1.032293 1.012129 1.03
May-16 77 2232 2221.75 2230 2160.90344 1.031976 1.000897 1.04
Jun-16 78 2237 2238.25 2241.375 2165.442332 1.035066 0.998048 0.98
Jul-16 79 2231 2244.5 2247.875 2169.981223 1.035896 0.992493 0.98
Aug-16 80 2278 2251.25 2250.5 2174.520115 1.034941 1.01222 1.23
Sep-16 81 2259 2249.75 2248 2179.059006 1.031638 1.004893 0.96
Oct-16 82 2231 2246.25 2236.125 2183.597898 1.024055 0.997708 0.94
Nov-16 83 2217 2226 2246.375 2188.136789 1.026615 0.986923 0.98
Dec-16 84 2197 2266.75 2251.875 2192.675681 1.026999 0.975631 1.31
Jan-17 85 2422 2237 2246.125 2197.214572 1.02226 1.078302 0.74
Feb-17 86 2112 2255.25 2274.875 2201.753464 1.033211 0.928403 0.81
Mar-17 87 2290 2294.5 2243.375 2206.292355 1.016808 1.020783 1
Apr-17 88 2354 2192.25 2197.75 2210.831247 0.994083 1.071095 1.03
May-17 89 2013 2203.25 2220.125 2215.370139 1.002146 0.906706 1.04
Jun-17 90 2156 2237 2217.5 2219.90903 0.998915 0.972266 0.98
Jul-07 91 2425 2198 2198 2224.447922 0.98811 1.103276 0.98
Seasonal CMAT Coefficients Standard Error t Stat
1343.801285237 Intercept 1811.408791 16.6123731752 109.039736
1474.594125179 Time 4.538891543 0.3136085143 14.4731132
1825.025465839
1884.451288103 Regression Statistics
1907.467378882 Multiple R 0.837743149
1801.869297659 R Square 0.701813584
1806.317411371 Adjusted R Square 0.698463174
2272.695505972 Standard Error 78.58381101
1778.168462494 Observations 91
1745.389844243
1824.109866221
2444.296891543 MONTHS SI
1384.10664214 JAN 0.74
1518.712150979 FEB 0.81
1879.492164357 MAR 1
1940.551987578 APR 1.03
1964.112745342 MAY 1.04
1855.246662207 JUN 0.98 Multiple Regression -- Result Formula
1859.69477592 JUL 0.98
2339.689545151 AUG 1.23 SASSS = 1,811.41 + ( (TIME) * 4
1830.456493072 SEP 0.96
1796.58854085 OCT 0.94
1877.487230769 NOV 0.98
2515.648266603 DEC 1.31
1424.411999044
1562.83017678
1933.958862876 Accuracy Measures Value
1996.652687052 AIC 1,052.50
2020.758111801 BIC 1,055.01
1908.624026756 MAPE 3.16%
1913.072140468 Sum Squared Error (SSE) 549,611.97
2406.683584329 R-Square 70.18%
1882.74452365 Adjusted R-Square 69.85%
1847.787237458
1930.864595318
2586.999641663
1464.717355948
1606.94820258
1988.425561395
2052.753386527
2077.403478261
1962.001391304
1966.449505017
2473.677623507
1935.032554228
1898.985934066
1984.241959866
2658.351016722
1505.022712852
1651.06622838
2042.892259914
2108.854086001
2134.048844721
2015.378755853
2019.826869565
2540.671662685
1987.320584807
1950.184630674
2037.619324415
2729.702391782
1545.328069756
1695.184254181
2097.358958433
2164.954785475
2190.69421118
2068.756120401
2073.204234114
2607.665701863
2039.608615385
2001.383327281
2090.996688963
2801.053766842
1585.63342666
1739.302279981
2151.825656952
2221.05548495
2247.33957764
2122.13348495
2126.581598662
2674.659741042
2091.896645963
2052.582023889
2144.374053512
2872.405141902
1625.938783564
1783.420305781
2206.292355471
2277.156184424
2303.984944099
2175.510849498
2179.958963211
 P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
1.54E-96 1778.40036 1844.417 1778.4003596 1844.4172229
4.13E-25 3.915758105 5.162025 3.9157581053 5.1620249812

SASSS

ultiple Regression -- Result Formula

ASSS = 1,811.41 + ( (TIME) * 4.54 )

Forecast Statistics Value

Durbin Watson (1) 1.03
Mean 2,020.20
Median 1,964.00
Standard Deviation 143.11
Variance 20,479.80
Mean Square Deviation 20,254.75
 Househo
Auto ld Populati
Area Sales Income on
1 185,792 23,409 133.17 9. Develop a multiple-regression model for auto sales
2 85,643 19,215 110.86 the following data for 10 metropolitan areas: 274 (c5
3 97,101 20,374 68.04 ($000) Population (POP) (000
4 100,249 16,107 99.59 a. Estimate values for b0, b1, and b2 for the following
5 527,817 23,423 289.52
6 403,916 19,426 339.98 b. Are the signs you find for the coefficients consiste
7 78,283 18,742 89.53 c. Are the coefficients for the two explanatory variab
8 188,756 18,553 155.78
9 329,531 21,953 248.95 d. What percentage of the variation in AS is explaine
10 91,944 16,358 102.13
e. What point estimate of AS would you make for a c
 gression model for auto sales as a function of population and household income from
0 metropolitan areas: 274 (c5p9) Area Auto Sales (AS) ($000) Household Income (INC)
(000

0, b1, and b2 for the following model: AS = b 0 + b 1 ( INC ) + b 2 ( POP )

d for the coefficients consistent with your expectations? Explain.

or the two explanatory variables significantly different from zero? Explain.

he variation in AS is explained by this model?

of AS would you make for a city where INC = $23,175 and POP = 128.07?
Area Auto Sales Household Income Population
1 185792 23409 133.17
2 85643 19215 110.86
3 97101 20374 68.04
4 100249 16107 99.59
5 527817 23423 289.52
6 403916 19426 339.98
7 78283 18742 89.53
8 188756 18553 155.78
9 329531 21953 248.95
10 91944 16358 102.13

b) With our variables being household income and p

The signs for the coefficients are consistent with our

d) For our R squared its .9295. This value implies tha

d) For our R squared its .9295. This value implies tha
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations

ANOVA

Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
X Variable 1
X Variable 2

Y=-307507.7474+14.56x2+1397.32x2

b) With our variables being household income and population, both being positive they both correlate to increase then aut
The signs for the coefficients are consistent with our expectation.

C) Question???

d) For our R squared its .9295. This value implies that 95% of the variation in auto sales is explained by the independent va
 d) For our R squared its .9295. This value implies that 95% of the variation in auto sales is explained by the independent va

e) For Household Income equally $23175 and Population being 128.0 the point estimate will equal=
208713.498594638
 0.964124011
0.9295351085
0.9094022824
47640.7531672028
10

df SS MS F Significance F
2 209579252943.23 1.05E+11 46.17013 9.28762679E-05
7 15887489536.368 2.27E+09
9 225466742479.6

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

-307507.747449953 126276.6515353 -2.435191 0.045076 -606104.58008 -8910.91481966
14.5572744906 6.8835869268 2.11478 0.072276 -1.7198220945 30.8343710757
1397.315700982 187.5038600303 7.452197 0.000143 953.9395262871 1840.691875677

tive they both correlate to increase then auto sales would increase as well.

to sales is explained by the independent variable in income and population.

to sales is explained by the independent variable in income and population.
 Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
-606104.5800803 -8910.9148197
-1.7198220945 30.8343710757
953.9395262871 1840.69187568
Period Sales Inc NRUR
Mar-07 72962 218 8.4
10. In Chapter 4, you worked with data on sales for a line of
Jun-07 81921 237 8.2 Industries. Barbara Lynch, the product manager for the skiwe
Sep-07 97729 263 8.4 forecasts to top management of sales by quarter one year ah
Dec-07 142161 293 8.4 Staples, suggested that unemployment and income in the re
might be causally connected to sales. If you worked the exer
Mar-08 145592 318 8.1 three bivariate regression models of sales as a function of tim
Jun-08 117129 359 7.7 income (INC). Data for these variables and for sales are as fo
Sep-08 114159 404 7.5
a. Now you can expand your analysis to see whether a multi
Dec-08 151402 436 7.2 Estimate the following model: SALES b 0 + b 1 ( INC ) + b 2 ( N
Mar-09 153907 475 6.9 ( NRUR ) ( Circle + or − as appropriate for each variable ) Do t
Jun-09 100144 534 6.5 Explain why.
Sep-09 123242 574 6.5 b. Test to see whether the coefficients you have estimated a
Dec-09 128497 622 6.4 95 percent confidence level and a one-tailed test.
Mar-10 176076 667 6.3
Jun-10 180440 702 6.2 c. What percentage of the variation in sales is explained by t
Sep-10 162665 753 6.3 d. Use this model to make a sales forecast (SF1) for 2017Q1
Dec-10 220818 796 6.5 forecast values for unemployment (NRURF) and income (INC
Mar-11 202415 858 6.8 Time Period NRURF (%) INC ($ Billions) SF1 Mar-17 7.6 1,928
2,017 _____ Dec-17 7.4 2,062 _____
Jun-11 211780 870 7.9
Sep-11 163710 934 8.3 e. Actual sales for 2017 were: Q1 = 334,271; Q2 = 328,982; Q
Dec-11 200135 1010 8 this information, how well would you say the model worked
error (MAPE)? 276
Mar-12 174200 1066 8
Jun-12 182556 1096 8 f. Plot the actual data for 2017Q1 through 2017Q4 along wit
Sep-12 198990 1162 8 based on this model.
Dec-12 243700 1187 8.9
Mar-13 253142 1207 9.6
Jun-13 218755 1242 10.2
Sep-13 225422 1279 10.7
Dec-13 253653 1318 11.5
Mar-14 257156 1346 11.2
Jun-14 202568 1395 11
Sep-14 224482 1443 10.1
Dec-14 229879 1528 9.2
Mar-15 289321 1613 8.5
Jun-15 266095 1646 8
Sep-15 262938 1694 8
Dec-15 322052 1730 7.9
Mar-16 313769 1755 7.9
Jun-16 315011 1842 7.9
Sep-16 264939 1832 7.8
Dec-16 301479 1882 7.6
 th data on sales for a line of skiwear that is produced by HeathCo
roduct manager for the skiwear, has the responsibility of providing
f sales by quarter one year ahead. One of Ms. Lynch’s colleagues, Dick
oyment and income in the regions in which the clothes are marketed
sales. If you worked the exercises in Chapter 4, you have developed
els of sales as a function of time (TIME), unemployment (NRUR), and
riables and for sales are as follows: (c5p10)
nalysis to see whether a multiple-regression model would work well.
ALES b 0 + b 1 ( INC ) + b 2 ( NRUR ) SALES = ___ + / − ___ ( INC ) + / ___
priate for each variable ) Do the signs on the coefficients make sense?

fficients you have estimated are statistically different from zero, using a
a one-tailed test.

ation in sales is explained by this model?

es forecast (SF1) for 2017Q1 through 2017Q4, given the previously
ent (NRURF) and income (INCF) as follows: 275 Period Sales Inc NRUR
Billions) SF1 Mar-17 7.6 1,928 _____ Jun-17 7.7 1,972 _____ Sep-17 7.5
____

1 = 334,271; Q2 = 328,982; Q3 = 317,921; Q4 = 350,118. On the basis of

ld you say the model worked? What is the mean absolute percentage

Q1 through 2017Q4 along with the values predicted for each quarter
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9508222168
R Square 0.904062888
Adjusted R Squa 0.8960681287
Standard Error 21715.7246346
Observations 40

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 3 1.6E+11 5.33E+10 113.0819 2.21E-18
Residual 36 1.7E+10 4.72E+08
Total 39 1.77E+11

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%

Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 75767.1554399 7815.172 9.69488 1.41E-11 59917.25 91617.06 59917.25 91617.06
Time 5364.22412488 298.7114 17.95788 1.5E-19 4758.409 5970.039 4758.409 5970.039
Q1 26166.5861873 8422.391 3.106788 0.00368 9085.186 43247.99 9085.186 43247.99
Q4 25597.5138127 8422.391 3.039222 0.0044 8516.113 42678.91 8516.113 42678.91

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted Sales Residuals

1 107297.965752 -34336
2 86495.6036897 -4574.6
3 91859.8278146 5869.172
4 122821.565752 19339.43
5 128754.862252 16837.14
6 107952.500189 9176.5
7 113316.724314 842.2757
8 144278.462252 7123.538
9 150211.758751 3695.241
10 129409.396689 -29265.4
11 134773.620814 -11531.6
12 165735.358751 -37238.4
13 171668.655251 4407.345
14 150866.293188 29573.71
15 156230.517313 6434.483
16 187192.255251 33625.74
17 193125.55175 9289.448
18 172323.189688 39456.81
19 177687.413813 -13977.4
20 208649.15175 -8514.15
21 214582.44825 -40382.4
22 193780.086187 -11224.1
23 199144.310312 -154.31
24 230106.04825 13593.95
25 236039.344749 17102.66
26 215236.982687 3518.017
27 220601.206812 4820.793
28 251562.944749 2090.055
29 257496.241249 -340.241
30 236693.879186 -34125.9
31 242058.103311 -17576.1
32 273019.841249 -43140.8
33 278953.137748 10367.86
34 258150.775686 7944.224
35 263514.999811 -577
36 294476.737748 27575.26
37 300410.034248 13358.97
38 279607.672185 35403.33
39 284971.89631 -20032.9
40 315933.634248 -14454.6
Upper 95.0%
Period TIME Sales Q1 Q4 Forecast Sales
Mar-07 1 72962 1 0 107297.965752
Jun-07 2 81921 0 0 86495.6036897
Sep-07 3 97729 0 0 91859.8278146
Dec-07 4 142161 0 1 122821.565752
Mar-08 5 145592 1 0 128754.862252
Jun-08 6 117129 0 0 107952.500189
Sep-08 7 114159 0 0 113316.724314
Dec-08 8 151402 0 1 144278.462252
Mar-09 9 153907 1 0 150211.758751
Jun-09 10 100144 0 0 129409.396689
Sep-09 11 123242 0 0 134773.620814
Dec-09 12 128497 0 1 165735.358751
Mar-10 13 176076 1 0 171668.655251
Jun-10 14 180440 0 0 150866.293188
Sep-10 15 162665 0 0 156230.517313
Dec-10 16 220818 0 1 187192.255251
Mar-11 17 202415 1 0 193125.55175
Jun-11 18 211780 0 0 172323.189688
Sep-11 19 163710 0 0 177687.413813
Dec-11 20 200135 0 1 208649.15175
Mar-12 21 174200 1 0 214582.44825
200000
Jun-12 22 182556 0 0 193780.086187
180000
Sep-12 23 198990 0 0 199144.310312 160000
Dec-12 24 243700 0 1 230106.04825 140000
Mar-13 25 253142 1 0 236039.344749 120000
Jun-13 26 218755 0 0 215236.982687 100000
80000
Sep-13 27 225422 0 0 220601.206812
60000
Dec-13 28 253653 0 1 251562.944749
40000
Mar-14 29 257156 1 0 257496.241249 20000
Jun-14 30 202568 0 0 236693.879186 0
Sep-14 31 224482 0 0 242058.103311

13
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Dec-14 32 229879 0 1 273019.841249 A
Mar-15 33 289321 1 0 278953.137748 Li
Jun-15 34 266095 0 0 258150.775686
Sep-15 35 262938 0 0 263514.999811
Dec-15 36 322052 0 1 294476.737748
Mar-16 37 313769 1 0 300410.034248
Jun-16 38 315011 0 0 279607.672185
Sep-16 39 264939 0 0 284971.89631
Dec-16 40 301479 0 1 315933.634248
Mar-17 41 334271 1 0 321866.930747
Jun-17 42 328982 0 0 301064.568685
Sep-17 43 317921 0 0 306428.79281
Dec-17 44 350118 0 1 337390.530747
11. a. Construct a time-series graph of the sales data for HeathCo’s line of skiwear (see data in c5p11). Does the
sales data? Explain why you think the results are as you have found. (c5p11)

b. It seems logical that skiwear would sell better from October through March than from April through Septem
adding two dummy variables to the data: a dummy variable Q1 = 1 for each first quarter (January, February, M
variable Q4 = 1 for each fourth quarter (October, November, December) and Q4 = 0 otherwise. Once the dumm
data set, estimate the following trend model: SALES b 0 + b 1 ( TIME ) + b 2 Q 1 + b 3 Q 4 Evaluate these results
make sense? Why or why not? Are the coefficients statistically different from zero at a 95 percent confidence le
the variation in SALES is explained by this model?

c. Use this model to make a forecast of SALES (SF2) for the four quarters of 2017 and calculate the MAPE for th
2017Q1 334,271 _____ 2017Q2 328,982 _____ 2017Q3 317,921 _____ 2017Q4 350,118 _____

d. Prepare a time-series plot of SALES (for 2007Q1 through 2016Q4) along with SF2 (for 2007Q1 through 2017Q
compare.
 SUMMARY OUTPUT Multiple Regression -- Result Formula

Regression Statistics Sales = 75,767.16 + ( (Time) * 5,364.22 ) + ( (Q1) * 26,1

Multiple R 0.9508222168
R Square 0.904062888
Adjusted R Square 0.8960681287 Accuracy Measures
Standard Error 21715.72463464 AIC
Observations 40 BIC
MAPE
Sum Squared Error (SSE)
R-Square
Adjusted R-Square

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

Intercept 75767.15543992 7815.172283599 9.69488 1.4E-11 59917.2514 91617.0595
Time 5364.224124882 298.7114225878 17.95788 1.5E-19 4758.40928 5970.03897
Q1 26166.58618732 8422.39090862 3.106788 0.00368 9085.18571 43247.9867
Q4 25597.51381268 8422.39090862 3.039222 0.0044 8516.11334 42678.9143

Sales
200000
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
13

19
20
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

14
15
16
17
18

21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40

Actual Forecast Fitted Values

Linear (Fitted Values)
ear (see data in c5p11). Does there appear to be a seasonal pattern in the

than from April through September. To test this hypothesis, begin by

st quarter (January, February, March) and Q1 = 0 otherwise; and a dummy
4 = 0 otherwise. Once the dummy variables have been entered into your
+ b 3 Q 4 Evaluate these results by answering the following: Do the signs
ero at a 95 percent confidence level (one-tailed test)? What percentage of

17 and calculate the MAPE for the forecast period. Period SALES ($000) SF2
350,118 _____

h SF2 (for 2007Q1 through 2017Q4) to illustrate how SALES and SF2
Result Formula

(Time) * 5,364.22 ) + ( (Q1) * 26,166.59 ) + ( (Q4) * 25,597.51 )

Value Forecast Statistics Value

910.16 Durbin Watson (1) 1.38
911.85 Mean 198,674.78
9.36% Median 201,275.00
16,976,617,070.67 Standard Deviation 67,359.67
90.41% Variance 4,537,325,177.41
89.61% Mean Square Deviati 4,423,892,047.97

Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

59917.2514149291 91617.0595
4758.4092807072 5970.03897
9085.1857116379 43247.9867
8516.1133369926 42678.9143
 Date Sales Time Index M1 M2 M3 M4 M5
Jan-13 40,358 1 1 0 0 0 0
Feb-13 45,002 2 0 1 0 0 0
Mar-13 63,165 3 0 0 1 0 0
Apr-13 57,479 4 0 0 0 1 0
May-13 52,308 5 0 0 0 0 1
Jun-13 60,062 6 0 0 0 0 0
Jul-13 51,694 7 0 0 0 0 0
Aug-13 54,469 8 0 0 0 0 0
Sep-13 48,284 9 0 0 0 0 0
Oct-13 45,239 10 0 0 0 0 0
Nov-13 40,665 11 0 0 0 0 0
Dec-13 47,968 12 0 0 0 0 0
Jan-14 37,255 13 1 0 0 0 0
Feb-14 38,521 14 0 1 0 0 0
Mar-14 55,110 15 0 0 1 0 0
Apr-14 51,389 16 0 0 0 1 0
May-14 58,068 17 0 0 0 0 1
Jun-14 64,028 18 0 0 0 0 0
Jul-14 52,873 19 0 0 0 0 0
Aug-14 62,584 20 0 0 0 0 0
Sep-14 53,373 21 0 0 0 0 0
Oct-14 52,060 22 0 0 0 0 0
Nov-14 51,727 23 0 0 0 0 0
Dec-14 51,455 24 0 0 0 0 0
Jan-15 47,906 25 1 0 0 0 0
Feb-15 53,570 26 0 1 0 0 0
Mar-15 69,189 27 0 0 1 0 0
Apr-15 64,346 28 0 0 0 1 0
May-15 77,267 29 0 0 0 0 1
Jun-15 75,787 30 0 0 0 0 0
Jul-15 74,052 31 0 0 0 0 0
Aug-15 79,756 32 0 0 0 0 0
Sep-15 73,292 33 0 0 0 0 0
Oct-15 77,207 34 0 0 0 0 0
Nov-15 68,423 35 0 0 0 0 0
Dec-15 67,274 36 0 0 0 0 0
Jan-16 65,711 37 1 0 0 0 0
Feb-16 68,005 38 0 1 0 0 0
Mar-16 78,029 39 0 0 1 0 0
Apr-16 92,764 40 0 0 0 1 0
May-16 97,175 41 0 0 0 0 1
Jun-16 86,255 42 0 0 0 0 0
Jul-16 90,496 43 0 0 0 0 0
Aug-16 87,602 44 0 0 0 0 0
Sep-16 83,577 45 0 0 0 0 0
Oct-16 92,610 46 0 0 0 0 0
Nov-16 73,949 47 0 0 0 0 0
Dec-16 77,711 48 0 0 0 0 0
Jan-17 83,769.01 49 1 0 0 0 0
Feb-17 88,396.06 50 0 1 0 0 0
Mar-17 104,654.86 51 0 0 1 0 0
Apr-17 105,936.16 52 0 0 0 1 0
May-17 111,806.21 53 0 0 0 0 1
Jun-17 113,294.76 54 0 0 0 0 0
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.934395
R Square 0.873095
Adjusted R Square 0.801013
Standard Error 6545.889
Observations 48

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 13 1.03E+10 7.94E+08 20.06638281 3.1291204E-12
Residual 35 1.5E+09 42848667
Total 48 1.18E+10

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%
Intercept 29847.24 3535.886 8.441233 5.862658E-10 22669.0059666
Time Index 945.2771 70.42256 13.42293 2.293148E-15 802.311693284
M1 0 0 65535 #NUM! 0
M2 2521.723 4629.178 0.544745 #NUM! -6876.0088837
M3 16675.2 4630.785 3.600944 0.000972962 7274.20225288
M4 15851.17 4633.462 3.421021 0.001602676 6444.74138285
M5 19615.89 4637.206 4.23011 0.000159639 10201.8622673
M6 18999.11 4642.016 4.092858 0.000238449 9575.32015341
M7 13799.59 4647.889 2.969001 0.005363645 4363.87175673
M8 16678.31 4654.819 3.58302 0.001022978 7228.52523797
M9 9261.783 4662.803 1.986312 0.054873377 -204.20982454
M10 10464.01 4671.835 2.239807 0.031555309 979.677533026
M11 1430.729 4681.908 0.305587 0.761729486 -8074.0503765
M12 2896.452 4693.017 0.617183 0.541108478 -6630.8799315
M6 M7 M8 M9 M10 M11 M12 Time Index 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 36
0 1 0 0 0 0 0 49
0 0 1 0 0 0 0 64
0 0 0 1 0 0 0 81
0 0 0 0 1 0 0 100
0 0 0 0 0 1 0 121
0 0 0 0 0 0 1 144
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 169
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 196
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 225
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 256
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 289
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 324
0 1 0 0 0 0 0 361
0 0 1 0 0 0 0 400
12. AmeriPlas, Inc., produce
0 0 0 1 0 0 0 441
a. Prepare a time-series plo
0 0 0 0 1 0 0 484 Ronnie Mills, the product m
0 0 0 0 0 1 0 529 sales are slowest in Novem
0 0 0 0 0 0 1 576
b. Since production is close
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 625
monthly fluctuations. She h
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 676 mentioned four months. Do
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 729
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 784 c. Ronnie believes that the
forecasting effort, she has a
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 841
of increase of sales growth?
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 900
0 1 0 0 0 0 0 961 d. Use the model in part (c
0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1024 2017. Actual sales for those
2017 119807
0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1089
0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1156
0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1225
0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1296
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1369
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1444
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1521
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1600
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1681
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1764
0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1849
0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1936 110,000
100,000
90,000
80,000
 110,000
0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2025 100,000
0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2116
90,000
0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2209
80,000
0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2304
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2401 70,000

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2500 60,000
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2601 50,000
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2704 40,000
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2809
30,000
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2916
20,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.95943
R Square 0.920507
Adjusted R 0.86468
Standard E 5180.773
Observatio 48

ANOVA
df SS MS F
Regression 13 1.09E+10 836777094.34 33.77403
Residual 35 9.39E+08 26840404.417
Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0% Total 48 1.18E+10
37025.46 22669.01 37025.46
1088.242 802.3117 1088.242 Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value
0 0 0 Intercept 40221.12 2850.154 14.111911068 5.19E-16
11919.45 -6876.01 11919.45 M1 -2873.39 3711.093 -0.774271749 0.443969
26076.19 7274.202 26076.19 M2 -160.427 3704.473 -0.043306167 0.965704
25257.6 6444.741 25257.6 M3 14145.62 3698.037 3.8251711983 0.000516
29029.92 10201.86 29029.92 M4 13435.51 3691.868 3.6392163508 0.000874
28422.91 9575.32 28422.91 M5 17275.47 3686.052 4.686713776 4.12E-05
23235.3 4363.872 23235.3 M6 16695.26 3680.679 4.5359196164 6.46E-05
26128.1 7228.525 26128.1 M7 11493.64 3675.845 3.126802559 0.003547
18727.78 -204.21 18727.78 M8 14331.6 3671.648 3.9033151594 0.000413
19948.33 979.6775 19948.33 M9 6835.639 3668.192 1.8634900252 0.070801
10935.51 -8074.05 10935.51 M10 7919.761 3665.584 2.1605727734 0.037657
12423.78 -6630.88 12423.78 M11 -1270.29 3663.935 -0.34669974 0.730893
M12 0 0 65535 #NUM!
Time Index 19.33415 1.100753 17.564471133 #NUM!
12. AmeriPlas, Inc., produces 20-ounce plastic drinking cups that are embossed with the names of prominent beers an
a. Prepare a time-series plot of the sales data. Does there appear to be a regular pattern of movement in the data th
Ronnie Mills, the product manager for this product line, believes that her brief review of sales data for the four-year p
sales are slowest in November, December, January, and February than in other months. Do you agree?

b. Since production is closely related to orders for current shipment, Ronnie would like to have a monthly sales forec
monthly fluctuations. She has asked you to develop a trend model that includes a time index and dummy variables fo
mentioned four months. Do these results support Ronnie’s observations? Explain.

c. Ronnie believes that there has been some increase in the rate of sales growth. To test this and to include such a po
forecasting effort, she has asked that you add the square of the time index (T) to your model (call this new term T2). I
of increase of sales growth? Compare the results of this model with those found in part (b).

d. Use the model in part (c) to forecast sales for 2017. Calculate the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the fi
2017. Actual sales for those six months were: Jan-2017 87327 Feb-2017 84772 Mar-2017 112499 Apr-2017 102633 Ma
2017 119807

Sales
110,000
100,000
90,000
80,000
 Sales
110,000
100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011 12 1314 1516 1718 19 2021 2223 24 2526 2728 2930 31 3233 3435 3637 38 39 4041 4243 4445 46 4748

Significance F
1.296276316505E-15

Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

34435.0008052909 46007.241693 34435.00080529 46007.241693
-10407.3148875786 4660.5253444 -10407.3148876 4660.5253444
-7680.905518776 7360.0525103 -7680.90551878 7360.0525103
6638.2098485923 21653.03709 6638.209848592 21653.03709
5940.6153444367 20930.394953 5940.615344437 20930.394953
9792.3860776015 24758.55099 9792.386077601 24758.55099
9223.0882085478 24167.439042 9223.088208548 24167.439042
4031.2790788147 18956.001767 4031.279078815 18956.001767
6877.7574052349 21785.440447 6877.757405235 21785.440447
-611.1864531057 14282.464724 -611.186453106 14282.464724
478.2298526072 15361.292249 478.2298526072 15361.292249
-8708.468903787 6167.8982488 -8708.46890379 6167.8982488
0 0 0 0
17.0994992873 21.568794696 17.0994992873 21.568794696
s of prominent beers and soft drinks
ovement in the data that may be seasonal?
data for the four-year period indicates that
u agree?

e a monthly sales forecast that incorporates

nd dummy variables for all but the above

nd to include such a possibility in the

all this new term T2). Is there any evidence

e error (MAPE) for the first six months of

99 Apr-2017 102633 May-2017 112996 Jun-
45 464748
 Date Sales
Jan-13 40,358
12. AmeriPlas, Inc., produces 20-ounce plastic drinking cups that are emb
Feb-13 45,002
prominent beers and soft drinks
Mar-13 63,165 a. Prepare a time-series plot of the sales data. Does there appear to be a
Apr-13 57,479 in the data that may be seasonal? Ronnie Mills, the product manager for
May-13 52,308 her brief review of sales data for the four-year period indicates that sale
December, January, and February than in other months. Do you agree?
Jun-13 60,062
Jul-13 51,694 b. Since production is closely related to orders for current shipment, Ron
Aug-13 54,469 monthly sales forecast that incorporates monthly fluctuations. She has a
Sep-13 48,284 model that includes a time index and dummy variables for all but the ab
these results support Ronnie’s observations? Explain.
Oct-13 45,239
Nov-13 40,665 c. Ronnie believes that there has been some increase in the rate of sales
Dec-13 47,968 include such a possibility in the forecasting effort, she has asked that you
Jan-14 37,255 index (T) to your model (call this new term T2). Is there any evidence of i
Compare the results of this model with those found in part (b).
Feb-14 38,521
Mar-14 55,110 d. Use the model in part (c) to forecast sales for 2017. Calculate the mea
Apr-14 51,389 (MAPE) for the first six months of 2017. Actual sales for those six months
May-14 58,068 2017 84772 Mar-2017 112499 Apr-2017 102633 May-2017 112996 Jun-20
Jun-14 64,028
Jul-14 52,873
Aug-14 62,584
Sep-14 53,373
Oct-14 52,060
Nov-14 51,727
Dec-14 51,455
Jan-15 47,906
Feb-15 53,570
Mar-15 69,189
Apr-15 64,346
May-15 77,267
Jun-15 75,787
Jul-15 74,052
Aug-15 79,756
Sep-15 73,292
Oct-15 77,207
Nov-15 68,423
Dec-15 67,274
Jan-16 65,711
Feb-16 68,005
Mar-16 78,029
Apr-16 92,764
May-16 97,175
Jun-16 86,255
Jul-16 90,496
Aug-16 87,602
Sep-16 83,577
Oct-16 92,610
Nov-16 73,949
Dec-16 77,711
 tic drinking cups that are embossed with the names of

ata. Does there appear to be a regular pattern of movement

Mills, the product manager for this product line, believes that
ear period indicates that sales are slowest in November,
her months. Do you agree?
ers for current shipment, Ronnie would like to have a
onthly fluctuations. She has asked you to develop a trend
my variables for all but the above mentioned four months. Do
? Explain.

e increase in the rate of sales growth. To test this and to

effort, she has asked that you add the square of the time
T2). Is there any evidence of increase of sales growth?
se found in part (b).
s for 2017. Calculate the mean absolute percentage error
ual sales for those six months were: Jan-2017 87327 Feb-
633 May-2017 112996 Jun-2017 119807