Chapter One

Discrete Probability
y
Distributions
1.2
The Binomial Probability
Distribution
Criteria for a Binomial Probability Experiment
An experiment is said to be a binomial experiment
provided
1. The experiment is performed a fixed number of
times. Each repetition of the experiment is called a
trial.
trial
2. The trials are independent. This means the
outcome of one trial will not affect the outcome of the
other trials.
3. For each trial
3 trial, there are two mutually exclusive
outcomes, success or failure.
4. The probability of success is fixed for each trial of
4
the experiment.
 Notation Used in the
Binomial Probability Distribution
• There are n independent trials of the experiment
• Let p denote the probability of success so that
1 – p is the probability of failure
failure.
• Let x denote the number of successes in n
i d
independent
d t ttrials
i l off th
the experiment.
i t SSo, 0 < x < n.
EXAMPLE Identifying Binomial Experiments
Which of the following are binomial experiments?
(a) A player rolls a pair of fair die 10 times
times. The number
X of 7’s rolled is recorded.
(b) The 11 largest airlines had an on
on-time
time percentage of
84.7% in November, 2001 according to the Air Travel
Consumer Report. In order to assess reasons for
delays, an official with the FAA randomly selects flights
until she finds 10 that were not on time. The number of
flights X that need to be selected is recorded
recorded.
(c ) In a class of 30 students, 55% are female. The
instructor randomly selects 4 students
students. The number X
of females selected is recorded.
 Binomial Distribution… 2 parameters [n and p]
The binomial distribution is the probability
distribution that results from doing a “binomial
experiment”.
i t” Bi
Binomial
i l experiments
i t hhave th
the
following properties:

1. Fixed number of trials, represented as n.

2 Each
2. E h ttrial
i lh
has two
t possible
ibl outcomes,
t a “success”
“ ”
and a “failure”.
3 P(success)=p (and thus: P(failure)=1
3. P(failure)=1–p),
p) for all
trials.
4 The trials are independent,
4. independent which means that the
outcome of one trial does not affect the outcomes
of any other trials.
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
 Success and Failure…
…are just labels for a binomial experiment, there is no
value judgment implied. You may define either one of
the 2 possible outcomes as “Success”
Success

For example a coin flip will result in either heads or

tails. If we define “heads” as success then necessarily
“tails” is considered a failure (inasmuch as we
attempting
tt ti to
t have
h the
th coin
i lands
l d h heads
d up).)

Other potential examples of binomial random variables:

– A firecracker pops or fails to pop
– A patient get an infection during an operation or does not
get an infection
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
 Binomial Random Variable…
The random variable of a binomial experiment is defined as the
number of successes, X, in the n trials, where the probability of
success on a single trial is p.

E.g. flip a fair coin 10 times…

1) Fixed number of trials 9 n=10

2) Each trial has two possible outcomes 9 {heads (success),
(success) tails
(failure)}
3) P(success)= 0.50; P(failure)=1–0.50 = 0.50 9
4) The trials are independent 9 (i.e. the outcome of heads on the first flip
will have no impact on subsequent coin flips).

Hence flipping a coin ten times is a binomial experiment since all

conditions were met.
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
 Binomial Distribution [formula]
The binomial random variable (# of successes in n
trials) can take on values 0, 1, 2, …, n. Thus, its a
di
discretet random
d variable.
i bl

Once we know
O k a random
d variable
i bl iis bi
binomial,
i l we can
calculate the probability associated with each value of
the random variable from the binomial distribution:

for x=0, 1, 2, …, n

x = # successes and
d n-x = # ffailures
il
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
 Ways to Calculate Binomial Probabilities
1. Use the binomial distribution formula [not a good
approach unless n is fairly small]
2 Use the binomial tables at the back of most stat
2.
books [not real good unless your specific value of
“n” and “p”
p happen
pp to be included in the tables]]
3. Approximate the binomial probabilities from some
other distributional form (normal) [no need to do this
now that
th t we have
h access tto various
i statistical
t ti ti l
software that will do it for us]
4 Use Excel stat function “=BINOMDIST(x
4. =BINOMDIST(x,n,p,false)
n p false)”
which will return the individual probability. Replace
false with true and you will get the sum of the
bi
binomial
i l probabilities
b bili i ffrom 0 up to x.
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
EXAMPLE Using the Binomial Probability
Distribution Function
According
g to the United States Census Bureau,,
18.3% of all households have 3 or more cars.
(a) In a random sample of 20 households
households, what is
the probability that exactly 5 have 3 or more cars?
(b) In a random sample of 20 households,
households what is
the probability that less than 4 have 3 or more
cars?
(c) In a random sample of 20 households, what is
the probability that at least 4 have 3 or more cars?
 Problem: Pat Statsdud…
Pat Statsdud failed to study for the next stat exam.
Pat’s exam strategy is to rely on luck for the next quiz.
Th quiz
The i consists
i t off 10 multiple-choice
lti l h i questionsti
(n=10). Each question has five possible answers, only
one of which is correct (p=0.2).
(p=0 2) Pat plans to guess the
answer to each question.

What is the probability that Pat gets no answers

correct?
P(X=0) = P(0) =
What is the probability that Pat gets two answers
correct?
P(X=2) = P(2) =
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
 Pat Statsdud…
n=10, and P(success) = .20

What is the probability that Pat gets no answers

correct?
I.e. # success, x, = 0; hence we want to know P(x=0)

Pat has about an 11% chance of g

getting
g no answers correct
using the guessing strategy.

Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.

 Pat Statsdud…
n=10, and P(success) = .20

What is the probability that Pat gets two answers

correct?
I.e. # success, x, = 2; hence we want to know P(x=2)

Pat has about a 30% chance of ggetting

g exactly
y two answers
correct using the guessing strategy.

Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.

 Cumulative Probability…
“Find the probability that Pat fails the quiz”

If a grade
d on th
the quiz
i iis lless th
than 50% (i
(i.e. 5 questions
ti
out of 10), that’s considered a failed quiz.

P(fail quiz) = P(X < 4) = P(0)+P(1)+P(2)+P(3)+P(4)

Called a cumulative probability, that is, P(X ≤ x)

Note: Calculating all these individual probabilities would be

tedious and time consuming, however, the Binomial tables at
back of book gives you the cumulative probabilities [n=10
[n=10,
p=0.2, x=4]
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
 Pat Statsdud…
Calculate Individual Probabilities and Add Up!
P(X ≤ 4) = P(0) + P(1) + P(2) + P(3) + P(4)

We already know P(0) = .1074 and P(2) = .3020. Using the

binomial formula to calculate the others:
P(1)
( ) = .2684 , P(3)
( ) = .2013, and P(4)
( ) = .0881

Hense P(X ≤ 4) = .1074

1074 + .2684
2684 + … + .0881
0881 = .9672
9672

OR

Use binomial tables at back of book for n=10, p=0.2, and

x=4
x 4 “Next
Next Slide”
Slide

Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.

 Binomial Table…
“What is the probability that Pat fails the quiz”?
i.e. what is P(X ≤ 4), given P(success) = .20 and
n=10 ?

P(X ≤ 4) = .967
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
 Binomial Table…
“What is the probability that Pat gets no answers
correct?”
i.e. what is P(X = 0), given P(success) = .20 and
n=10 ?

P(X = 0) = P(X ≤ 0) = .107

Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
 Binomial Table…
“What is the probability that Pat gets two answers
correct?”
i.e. what is P(X = 2), given P(success) = .20 and
n=10 ?

P(X = 2) = P(X≤2) – P(X≤1) = .678 – .376 = .302

remember, the table shows cumulative probabilities…
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
 =BINOMDIST() Excel Function…
There is a binomial distribution function in Excel that
can also be used to calculate these probabilities. For
example:
l
What is the probability that Pat gets two answers correct?
# successes

# trials

P(success)

True: cumulative prob.

False: individual prob.

P(X=2)=.3020
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
 =BINOMDIST() Excel Function…
There is a binomial distribution function in Excel
that can also be used to calculate these probabilities.
F example:
For l
What is the probability that Pat fails the quiz?
# successes

# trials

P(success)

cumulative
l
(i.e. P(X≤x)?)

P(X≤4)=.9672
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
 Binomial Distribution…
As you might expect, statisticians have determined
formulas for the mean, variance, and standard
deviation of a binomial random variable
variable. They are:

Previous example:
p n=10,, p=0.2
p
μ = n*p = 10*0.2 = 2
σ2 = n*p*(1-p) = 10*0.2*0.8= 1.6
σ = SQRT(1.6) = 1.26
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
 Chapter
Ch t One
O
Discrete Probability
Distributions
Section 1.3
The Poisson Probability
Distribution
 Poisson Distribution… 1 parameter [μ]
Named for Simeon Poisson, the Poisson distribution
is a discrete probability distribution and refers to the
number
b off eventst (successes)
( ) within
ithi a specific
ifi titime
period or region of space. For example:
• The number of cars arriving at a service station in 1 hour
hour.
(The interval of time is 1 hour.)
• The number of flaws in a bolt of cloth. (The specific region
is a bolt of cloth.)
• The number of accidents in 1 day on a particular stretch of
highway (The interval is defined by both time
highway. time, 1 day
day, and
space, the particular stretch of highway.)

Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.

 Poisson Probability Distribution…
The probability that a Poisson random variable
assumes a value of x is given by:

Note: μ is the only parameter [tell me μ and I can

calculate the probabilities]
and e is the natural logarithm base.

FYI:
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
 Example 7.12…
The number of typographical errors in new editions of
textbooks varies considerably from book to book. After
some analysis
l i h he concludes
l d ththatt th
the number
b off errors
is Poisson distributed with a mean of 1.5 typos per 100
pages The instructor randomly selects 100 pages of a
pages.
new book. What is the probability that there are no
typos?
yp

That is,, what is P(X=0)

( ) given
g that = 1.5?

“There is about a 22% chance of finding zero errors”

Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
 Poisson Distribution…
As mentioned on the Poisson experiment slide:

The probability of a success is proportional to the

size of the interval

Thus, knowing an error rate of 1.5 typos per 100

pages, we can determine a mean value for a 400 page
book as:

=1.5(4) = 6 typos / 400 pages.

Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.

 Example 7.13…
For a 400 page book, what is the probability that there
are
no typos?

P(X=0) =

“there is a very small chance there are no typos”

Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.

 Example 7.13…
For a 400 page book, what is the probability that there
are five or less typos?

P(X≤5) = P(0) + P(1) + … + P(5)

This is rather tedious to solve manually. A better

alternative is to refer to Table 2 in Appendix B…

…k=5, =6, and P(X ≤ k) = .446

“there is about a 45% chance there are 5 or less typos”

Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc. 7.29
 Example 7.13…
…Excel is an even better alternative:

Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc. 7.30

 Poisson Practice
The number of infections [X] in a hospital each week
has been shown to follow a poisson distribution with
mean 3.0
3 0 iinfections
f ti per week.
k CCalculate
l l t ththe ffollowing
ll i
probabilities.
•P(X = 0) =

•P(X
P(X < 4) =

•P(X
P(X > 9) =

•If you found 9 infections next week, what would you

say??
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.