Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
NEXUS
(JOBLESS GROWTH)
A Case Study of Pakistan
A thesis submitted for the partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of
Doctor of Philosophy
BY
AZAD HA IDER
2010
CERTIFICATE
This is to certify that Mr. Azad Haider has completed his dissertation in partial fulfillment
Growth Nexus (Jobless Growth) A Case Study of Pakistan‖ under our supervision. In our
opinion, this dissertation fully meets the requirements, in scope and quality, for the degree
of Doctor of Philosophy.
_________________ ___________________
ii
ABSTRACT
The slow growth in employment during the present and past few economic recoveries
around the world has generated interest among economic researchers in the phenomenon
employment has often been questioned. The present study is assesses this potential in
Pakistan which has relied mainly on economic growth in the past to generate
which Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the main explanatory variable. This model is
estimated using annual time series data for the period 1974-2008, first at the national
level and then by pooling data for the major sectors of the economy. Econometric
estimates of the parameters of this model have been used to calculate a threshold level of
The analysis of national data indicates that the economic growth in Pakistan has
generally been slower than the level of growth required to generate employment growth.
This result is mainly attributed to below threshold level of growth in the manufacturing
sector of the economy which is regarded as one of the main engines of economic growth
Among the potential factors behind the above results are labour productivity,
sectoral shifts in the labour market, and the macroeconomic policies of the last three
decades. Directions for future research and policy implications of results are also
iii
Dedication
iv
ACKNOWLDGMENTS
―In the name of Allah, the most gracious, the most merciful‖, praises and thanks are first
and foremost due to the Almighty Allah, the Lord of the Universe, who gave me the
strength, patience, and the ability to complete this dissertation.
I would also like to thank Dr. Yigit Aydede, my foreign supervisor, for his
valuable guidance especially on the econometrics analysis.
My appreciations are also due to Dr. Syed Nawab Haider Naqvi, Dr. Rehana
Siddiqui, Dr. Abdul Salam, Dr. Ather Maqsood, Dr. Waseem Shahid Malik and Saeed
Ahmed Sheikh whose classes strengthened my interest in the field of economics and
provided me the inspiration to conduct applied research.
I also thank Dr. Mumtaz Hussain of the International Monetary Fund for his
valuable guidance and encouragement.
Words are inadequate to express my full and sincere gratitude to my parents and
siblings. A special thought is devoted to my parents for a never-ending support -
especially to my mother for her understanding, endless patience and encouragement when
it was most required.
Azad Haider
v
Table of Contents
Certificate ............................................................................................................................... ii
Abstract …..............................................................................................................................iii
Dedication ............................................................................................................................... iv
Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................. v
Table of Contents................................................................................................................... vi
List of Tables ........................................................................................................................... x
List of Figures ....................................................................................................................... xii
CHAPTER 1
Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 1
CHAPTER 2
2.4 Summary:...................................................................................................................... 53
vi
CHAPTER 3
CHAPTER 4
4.4.1 A Comparison of the Threshold Level of GDP Growth Rate with Actual
Annual GDP Growth Rate: .................................................................................. 84
4.5.2 Threshold Level of GDP Growth in the Fast Economic Growth Period: ......... 90
4.6 Summary:...................................................................................................................... 91
vii
CHAPTER 5
5.3 Results of the Unit Root Test for Stationarity of Pooled Data: ................................. 97
CHAPTER 6
6.2 An Investigation of Factors Responsible for Jobless Growth in Pakistan: ............ 112
CHAPTER 7
7.1 Summary of Conclusions Regarding Presence of Jobless Growth in Pakistan: .... 135
7.2 Key Factors Responsible for Jobless Economic Growth in Pakistan: .................... 140
7.4 Limitations of the Study and Some Directions for Future Research: ..................... 144
viii
Appendix I ........................................................................................................................... 147
Appendix II .......................................................................................................................... 151
Appendix III ........................................................................................................................ 153
Appendix IV ........................................................................................................................ 157
Bibliography ........................................................................................................................ 158
ix
List of Tables
x
Table A5.2: Sectoral Distribution of Employment according to Rural and Urban Areas,
Pakistan (1974 - 2008)..................................................................................... 154
Table A5.3: Sectoral Distribution of Informal Employment according to Rural and Urban
Areas, Pakistan (2001 - 2008) ......................................................................... 155
Table A5.4 : Sectoral Employment and GDP Growth Rate of Pakistan (1974-2008) ..... 156
Table A6: Measures of Sectoral Change............................................................................. 157
xi
List of Figures
xii
CHAPTER 1
Introduction
The main purpose of this study is to assess the employment growth potential of economic
demand with respect to Gross Domestic Product (GDP), within the context of production
theory, for the period 1974-2008. The analysis is conducted at national and sectoral levels
relationship between employment and economic growth, the study also explores a set of
factors that may determine the strength of this relationship in the context of Pakistan‘s
economy.
began at the end of the global recession of 1991 when employment recoveries in many
countries were found to be slower than the recoveries observed at the end of previous
recessions. The phrase ―jobless growth‖ was first introduced by the New York Times in
the 1930s when at the end of the Great Depression, job growth was slower than the GDP
growth.2 This term gained prominence after the 1991 recession in the global economy to
describe the economic recovery that did not result in immediate job creation in most
economies.
Jobless growth is defined in two broad ways in this study. In the first definition,
"it refers to a situation whereby the overall economy is growing, but the absolute
1
To be consistent with terminologies used in the Pakistani literature, sectoral level data include data on
agriculture; industry defined as mining, manufacturing, construction and electricity, and services sectors.
Appendix Table A5.1 provides a list of the components of each sector.
2
For reference, please see U.S. Heads for Third Straight Jobless Recovery. Morning Edition, National
Public Radio. 16 Oct 2009 cited by http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jobless recovery .
1
employment level is stagnant or falling, rendering near-zero or negative employment
growth rates. Second, the term may be used to describe a situation whereby the overall
economy is growing, while the rate of unemployment is rising. Each of these two
definitions represents a very strict and broad interpretation of the term, with the latter not
ruling out the possibility of an increase in the level of employment" (Altman 2003:12).
because, economic growth in most of them is the main focus of economic policies to fight
wide-spread poverty levels. However, efforts to reduce poverty are destined to fail unless
jobs are created for the unemployed and poor. As Fields (2004) points out "the poor are
poor because they earn little from the work they do. If growth does not produce enough
jobs that are also high-productivity and high-paying, its purpose to foster development
and alleviate poverty will eventually be defeated". Indeed, recent data on developing
Khan (2007) has identified several factors responsible for jobless growth in a
competitive environment that necessitates economic reforms, which in turn lead to worker
layoffs and adoption of a cautious approach to new hiring; a structural shift in the
economies towards less employment-intensive sectors, which may be the result of greater
reduced availability of credits for small- and medium-sized enterprises, which tend to be
economic growth, expansion of international trade, and wait unemployment which is also
2
referred as ―just-in-time employment practices‖ by Schreft and Singh (2003), are cited as
rates is important for Pakistan. As Table 1.1 shows, over the period 1974-2008,
employment growth in Pakistan has been generally slower than the growth in its real
GDP. On the whole, the unemployment rate matched economic growth rate over the
period. Since the mid-1990s, the unemployment rate has been high. The rapid rate of
economic growth in the current century has been accompanied by high unemployment
rates. This indicates that economic growth in Pakistan has not been able to absorb new
entrants into its labor force. 3 Even in the periods where employment growth rate came
close to the GDP growth rate, the unemployment rate was 6 percent or higher. A crude
also provided in the same Table by calculating the ratio of annual percentage changes in
3
Arif, Kiani and Sheikh (2002) also find that labour absorptive capacity of Pakistan‘s economy has
declined over time.
3
Table 1.1: Some Labour Market Indicators in Pakistan (1974-2008)
Source: Based on Economic and Labour Force Survey of Pakistan (various issues).
It is by and large notion that the key objective of any economic policy is, to
enhance material wellbeing and the quality of people‘s lives and this can be accomplished
opportunities (Loots, 1998). This does not seem to be the case in Pakistan.
Pakistan that will quantify this relationship can help shed light on the desirability of
relying on economic growth as a tool for future employment growth in the country. This
is essential because until recently, economic planning in Pakistan has been largely
economic growth oriented (Pakistan 2007a). One desired outcome of this policy was
employment expansion which in turn could help reduce income inequality and poverty.
However, with the launching of Vision 2030 by the Government of Pakistan in August
2007, the policy focus has now changed towards an employment-intensive economic
growth (Pakistan 2007c). A comprehensive strategy has been designed to create "A
developed, industrialized, just and prosperous Pakistan through rapid and sustainable
4
major objective of this strategy is to place employment and employability of labour at the
centre of economic and social policies" (Pakistan 2007a, p.6). By estimating the elasticity
providing evidence on the presence or absence of jobless growth, the present study will
shed light on whether a shift from economic growth led employment towards
employment led economic growth can be supported by past data on Pakistan‘s economy.
can weaken (alter) the relationship between employment and economic growth rates
employment levels to grow slower than national output thereby creating a jobless growth
type of situation in the economy. If this is true, then an employment generation policy
unemployed workers are in demand. Table 1 data also showed that the productivity
growth rate in Pakistan has generally varied directly with economic growth. However, no
clear relationship appears to exist between productivity and unemployment rate. The
present study will investigate productivity growth as a possible cause of slow response of
Whenever a country emerges from a recession, public expectations are raised that
employment will rise. However, if the link between economic growth and employment is
weak, economic planners in a democratic country must convince general public why
employment does not grow as expected when the economy recovers. The present study
5
will provide useful information to policymakers whose job becomes more challenging
policy.
outcome of numerous social, economic and institutional factors such as capital, labour
the strength of public institutions and civil services, which in turn help determine the
government‘s approach to fiscal, monetary, and trade issues. The focus of any research
experience of fast growing economies of the world into its critical sub-components and
then using this experience to visualize the future track of economic development in
which emphatically states that Pakistan must become a developed, industrialized, just and
prosperous nation within one generation. 4 It must do so in a manner that sustains its
development paradigm of a good quality of life and opportunity for all its citizens to
reach their true potential. The MTDF also states that in spite of resource constraints,
4
"High pro-poor economic growth, social development, good governance and protection of the vulnerable
are the four basic themes of the employment and poverty reduction strategy of the MTDF. It aims at
achieving employment oriented pro-poor growth by accelerating productive economic activities. Expansion
of employment opportunities in agriculture, SMEs, and housing and construction that provide employment
to the poor segments of the society are the key instruments. Some targeted public support-programs, such
as, Tameer-e-Pakistan and Khushal Pakistan aim at income and employment generation" (Pakistan 2007b,
p.10).
6
Pakistan can reach the development levels, which it needs and deserves, by deploying
knowledge inputs and human capital. Employment generation has now become a central
focus of macro and sectoral policies and budgetary allocations in Pakistan (Box-1). The
MTDF stresses on "creating a just and sustainable economic system for reducing poverty
and achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) by the target year of 2015. It
higher investments but also through knowledge inputs to maximize total factor
Box-1
7
The MTDF aspires to attain an average growth rate of 8.0 per cent per annum in
real GDP during the period leading up to 2030. By then, sector share of agriculture in
GDP is expected to fall from 21.6 percent to 10 percent, that of manufacturing is expected
to rise from 18.2 to 30 percent, while that of Services will remain stagnant at about 52
percent. In fact, the share of agriculture in GDP has fallen from 39 percent in 1969-70 to
20.9 percent in 2006-07. During the same period, the share of service sector increased
from 38.4 percent to 53 percent. The manufacturing sector‘s share rose from 15.9 percent
in 2001-02 to 19.1 per cent in 2006–07. To reach the quantitative targets of 30 percent
GDP share by 2030, within an overall average GDP growth rate of 7 to 8 percent until
2030, the manufacturing sector needs to grow at an average rate of about 10 percent.5
Vision 2030 document does not emphasize economic growth as necessary for a
higher level of economic development, but it recognizes that they both feed into and feed
upon the social and infrastructure development. Thus, it is important that backward and
forward linkages among the key variables of the macroeconomic framework are properly
human capital and its quality. As discussed above, employment generation has become a
direct target of policymakers to achieve economic growth, while in the past employment
generation took a back seat and was totally dependent on economic growth. The new
approach towards employment generation under the employment agenda of the Vision
2030 is highlighted in Box 1. In light of this change in focus, the present study is
5
Pakistan Economic Survey, 2006-07.
8
important as it will provide some quantitative evidence on the desirability of such a
change.
available, reliable, and disaggregated data on the employed and unemployed. Realizing
the importance of such information and regular monitoring of the developments in the
labour market, the Federal Bureau of Statistics (FBS) has started conducting Labour
Force Surveys (LFSs) on a quarterly basis. The quarterly reports – mainly in the form of
summary tables – are now providing important insights on labour market indicators.
These data can be used in ascertaining the outcomes of the ―targeted‖ programs aimed at
analysis.
intermediation in a participative and cost effective manner. "The Policy Planning Cell
currently elaborating an institutional framework for the LMIS as a part of its employment
policy currently under preparation; The MOLMOP has also initiated a project for better
The labour market of Pakistan is confronted with two main challenges. The first is
absorbing fresh entrants into the labour market; their number increasing due to high rates
of growth of the labour force. This has to be accompanied with the creation of conditions
for ―decent work‖ thus focusing on the quality of jobs and work opportunities that are
9
being generated in terms of income, productivity, better working conditions and respect
for fundamental rights at work. The second relates to tackling the low absorptive capacity
and declining employment elasticity of the economy posing indeed a serious challenge to
policy makers (Pakistan 2007b). The focus of Vision 2030 on employment generation is
Our discussion in Sections 1.1 and 1.2 raises at least five important research
1. What has been the magnitude of the impact of GDP growth on employment
growth in Pakistan? An answer to this question will shed light on the desirability
of the recent change in policy focus from relying on economic growth to generate
3. Was there a minimum ―threshold‖ level of GDP growth that the country missed to
achieve before the impact of GDP could be felt on employment? This question is
related to the first question. It will help assess the extent to which past economic
10
slower than the average can be important information for policy makers desiring
2007). Furthermore, over the past three decades, many developing countries
sector. This shift has been observed in both rural and urban Pakistan (Appendix
Table A5.2). Development economists are divided over the role of services sector
to their low per capita incomes and high income elasticity of demand for services.
Hence, a current high potential of economic growth in services sector may not be
growth nationally then this outcome will not be sustainable if it were derived
solely by the service sector.6 A sectoral analysis is also important due to the
5. What were some major causes of jobless growth, if any, in Pakistan? If structural
6
Appendix Table A5.4 provides sectoral growth rates of GDP and employment.
7
Sectoral components of the informal economy are provided in Appendix Table A5.3.
11
1.4 Method of Analysis and Data Used:
logarithmic form. Econometric estimates of the parameters of this model will be used to
calculate a threshold level of GDP growth below which growth in employment is zero. A
comparison of the actual GDP growth with the threshold level will be drawn to
generating. The analysis will be performed first at the national level; and then separately
The period of analysis of this study is from 1974 to 2008.8 During this period,
longer periods of two military regimes, international oil crises, economic reforms,
bomb, and natural disasters, all of which may have affected the data used in this study.
The data have been obtained through various published and unpublished sources
of the Government of Pakistan. For some periods, these data were missing and had to be
interpolated, using the linear interpolation method which is inbuilt in EViews 7.1
software.
8
A choice of this period avoids any data inconsistency resulting from the 1971 division of Pakistan.
12
1.5 Organization of the Study:
previous international studies that have examined the relationship between employment
and economic growth is provided according to geographic regions. This review mainly
using a production function approach. This model relates national employment with GDP.
Its econometric estimation provides the elasticity of employment with respect to GDP
Some econometric issues related to the estimation of the employment demand model are
and GDP at the national level. Emerging trends in the employment growth, GDP growth
and hours worked per week in Pakistan are discussed in the same chapter. Estimates of
employment demand model. The model estimates are also used to estimate a threshold
level of GDP growth below which employment growth is expected to be zero. The actual
GDP growth rate is compared with this threshold level. This comparison is also
Chapter 5 breaks down the national level analysis of Chapter 4 by dividing the
economy into seven broad sectors. These sectors include: Agriculture, Manufacturing,
Construction, Electricity, Transport, Trade & Finance and All Other Services sectors.9 A
9
Mining sector has a small (less than 1 percent) contribution towards GDP and employment and hence, the
combined sector of mining and manufacturing is dominated by manufacturing industries.
13
sectoral analysis is necessary due to the presence of a large informal sector which
employs about 70 percent of the working age population, because of which employment
elasticity estimates based on national data may not be useful from an employment policy
perspective. The chapter also estimates separate thresholds for seven different sectors of
the economy. The analysis of Chapter 5 is based on pooled data comprising cross
sectional and time series components. The use of pooled data for estimation gives rise to
certain econometric issues which are also discussed in the same chapter.
Chapter 6 discusses a set of various possible causes of this result in light of the
relevant literature. Some of these causes are broadly investigated for Pakistan depending
Finally, Chapter 7 concludes the study and discusses some policy implications of
econometric results of the study. Some shortcomings of the present study and directions
14
CHAPTER 2
Literature Review
In developing countries, the necessity of economic growth to reduce poverty levels has
growth is a mean to achieve this goal. However, very few studies in development
among economists after the recession of early 1990s. Studies conducting empirical
investigation of this issue started to emerge only towards the end of 1990s. Most of these
studies focus on estimation of the relationship between employment growth and growth in
Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Jobless growth is inferred in these studies on the basis of
the magnitude of the GDP, or output, elasticity of employment demand. 10 Some studies
have gone a bit further and have used the output elasticity of employment to compute the
threshold level of economic growth, defined as the minimum level of economic growth
required to have any positive growth in employment. Finally, some analysis has also been
literature.
10
―GDP elasticity of employment‖, ―employment elasticity‖, ―intensity of employment elasticity‖ and
―employment- to-output elasticity‖ have the same meaning.
15
2.1 European and North American Studies:
European countries and the United States. Some studies have been conducted at the
regional level where data on a group of countries are analyzed while making references to
suggested on the basis of economic theory. Padalino and Vivarelli (1997) provide one
such evidence for G-7 countries. 11 Their study approaches the issue from both theoretical
and empirical perspectives. Econometric analysis of the relationships between real GDP,
sector data for the period 1960 to 1994. The theoretical framework of their article is based
on the French regulation theory which seeks to single out the characteristics of what the
authors call the post Fordist era, in influencing the link between economic and
employment growth. 12 The jobless growth hypothesis is contrasted with the more
optimistic view which continues to maintain that economic growth entails employment
11
G-7 countries include "Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United
States" http://www.actuaries.org.uk.
12
Post-Fordism is the name given to "the dominant system of economic production, consumption and
associated Socio-economic phenomena, in most industrialized countries since the late 20th century. It is
contrasted with Fordism, the system formulated in Henry Ford's automotive factories, in which workers
work on a production line, performing specialized tasks repetitively. Definitions of the nature and scope of
Post-Fordism vary considerably and are a matter of debate among scholars". "Post-Fordism is very much
driven by information technology. Advancement in computer technologies allows for just-in-time
manufacturing. There is no longer a need to stock-up on a given product. Products are made and then they
are out the door. The key to production flexibility lies in the use of informational technologies in machines
and operations". Retrieved September 2009, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-Fordism and
www.absoluteastronomy.com/topics/Fordism.
16
empirically that aggregate economic growth contributes to employment. To analyze the
jobless growth phenomenon in G-7 countries, these authors estimated the output
elasticities of employment for the entire economy and also for manufacturing sectors
using data for the period 1960-1994. Separate estimations were made for the Fordist
period before the two oil shocks (1960-73) and for the post-Fordist period (1980-94), in
order to investigate any structural break during the 1960-94 periods. The findings
intensive growth. The economy of United Kingdom experienced jobless growth. France
and Germany also faced jobless growth when total working time was taken into account.
terms of the number of employees as well as in terms of working time, while North
A similar study was conducted by Pini (1996) for the G-7 countries (excluding
Canada) and Sweden for the period 1960-95. This study focused on changes in the output
elasticity of employment over time. France and Sweden experienced a decrease in output
elasticity of employment during the post –Fordist period (1979-95) while the reverse
occurred in Germany and Japan. Italy, United Kingdom and the United States
Negative elasticities were found for Italy and Sweden during 1990-95, meaning that
economic growth led to job destruction instead of job creation. All countries experienced
a decrease in elasticities, except for Japan, as compared with the 1980s. When data were
13
These sectoral results are consistent with the previous studies by the same author (Pini, 1995 and 1996).
17
In investigating the impact of output on employment, the above studies did not
impact from the impact of output growth, Pianta et al. (1996) included the labour
productivity variable in the employment demand model. This variable was calculated as
the difference between GDP growth and employment growth. Their data included 36
manufacturing industries in the G-7 countries, excluding Canada, over the period 1980-
92. A Value-added measure of GDP was used and it was found that growth in this
variable had a significant effect on employment growth only in the United States and in
Germany. The other four countries namely France, Italy, the United Kingdom and Japan,
experienced a positive relationship between value added growth and employment but this
In an earlier study, Pianta (1995) had also found a positive relationship between
employment and value added in Germany and Italy, but this relationship was also
based on the European Community Innovation Survey. 14 Two proxy variables for
aggregate input productivity, including research and development intensity and the
innovation expenditure, were also used in this model and were found to be negatively
correlated with employment both in Germany and Italy. Hence, the aggregate input
opportunities for the population must distinguish between the short- and long-run impacts
of economic growth on employment. Dopke (2001) used the co-integration and error
14
A standardised cross sectional analysis carried out in 1992.
18
employment and economic growth. He used data on 18 selected OECD countries for the
period 1970-1999. To test for a possible co-integration relation, he used two residual
based statistics. The first one was obtained using an Augmented Dickey-Fuller (1979)
test, abbreviated as ADF test, to test the null hypothesis of "no co-integration." The
second one was based on the Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt, and Shin (1992) test,
abbreviated as KPSS test. In this case, the null hypothesis was co-integration between
employment and GDP growth. The ADF test could not confirm the presence of co-
integration between these variables, while the KPSS test indicated the presence co-
integration between these variables and confirm that a long run relationship exist between
employment and economic growth. However, in some cases the influence of real GDP on
accounting decomposes the growth rate of GDP into two main components, one that is
due to increases in the amounts of observable factors – mainly capital and labour - and the
other which cannot be accounted for by observable changes in factor utilization, also
progress. In a report published by the Centre for Economic Performance (2002), its head,
Europe, United States and Japan over the period 1980-2000. He found that since 1960,
15
At the end, Dopke also estimated Okun‘s (1962) coefficient for each country in his sample and found it to
be statistically significantly different across countries which led him to conclude that economic growth
affects employment growth differentially across countries in the OECD. In economics, Okun's law, named
after economist Arthur Okun who proposed the relationship in 1962 (Prachowny 1993), describes a
relationship between the change in the rate of unemployment and the difference between actual and
potential real GDP. In the literature, some economists make use of Okun‘s coefficient to discuss jobless
growth. One implication of Okun's law is that "an increase in labour productivity together with an increase
in the size of the labour force can mean that real net output grows without net unemployment rates falling"
(the phenomenon of jobless growth).
19
capital accumulation accounted for about one third of GDP growth in the European
countries and the United States. 16 However, in the United States, the employment growth
accounted for 40 percent of GDP growth and TFP growth for the remainder while in the
European Union, the employment growth contributed only seven percent of GDP growth
slightly negative, leaving about 70 percent of economic growth attributed to TFP growth.
In summary, while the rate of GDP growth was about the same in Europe and in
the US, growth in the US was much more employment-intensive than in Europe and in
Japan, which is attributed by the author to a higher population growth rate. The
catching up. The higher rate of TFP growth, which is labour-saving, and lower rate of
capital growth worked against employment generation in Europe. Although TFP growth
Japan.
16
The European Union is composed of 27 sovereign member states: "Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus,
the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia,
Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain,
Sweden, and the United Kingdom". European Countries, Europa web portal. Retrieved 18 September 2009,
http://europa.eu/abc/european_countries/index_en.htm.
20
Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) over the period 1990-2000.17 These authors
found a strong link (relationship) between employment and economic growth in Slovenia,
the Central European and then by post –Soviet Baltic region countries, but a weak
relationship in countries of former Yugoslavia and CIS. In their view, the weak link
between GDP and employment was due to limited socio-economic reforms in Bulgaria
and Romania and the regional instability in former Yugoslavia and Albania. They also
concluded that the limits to jobless growth differ between countries – they are the lowest
in the EU countries, a bit higher in Eastern Europe and the highest in the Baltic
Republics. Finally, no conclusive evidence on the link between GDP and employment
On the other hand, Verme (2006) observed that the phenomenon of ―jobless
growth‖ was present in seven low-income CIS countries which experienced sustained
output growth since 1997, but did not experience growth in employment. The joblessness
large potential for productivity gains among existing workers and the dual labour market
framework. In these low income countries, in the periods of recession and recovery affect
the agriculture and manufacturing sectors in different ways. The agriculture sector
sector, because of which this sector is unable to grow beyond subsistence. On the other
hand, manufacturing sector only focus on capital intensive techniques and highly
productive means of production and provides good wages for the few highly skilled
17
CIS countries include: "Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova,
Russia (former Soviet Union), Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan. Some of these countries
are in Asia: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Soviet Union, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan". CIS
Countries, Retrieved 18 September 2009. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIS_countries.
21
agriculture and manufacturing sector investments, jobless growth is likely to persist in the
East European (SEE) countries. 18 Employment was fairly sensitive, or elastic, to GDP
growth in some countries of the SEE region. Elasticity of employment to output was in
the ―normal‖ range for Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, and Moldova, at least during
part of the transition period from the command to market economic system. During the
1994 economic crisis, GNP in Turkey fell by 6.1 percent while employment continued to
grow (World Bank 2006b, p.25), thereby giving a negative employment elasticity. In
2001, Turkish GNP fell by 9.5 percent, with employment shrinking by 3.7 percent until
2003. In the years following the 2001 economic crisis, GDP expanded by 25 percent in
real terms, but unemployment could not be reduced below 10 percent. Apparently,
agriculture acted as an employment safety net. Jobless growth continued in 2003 and
2004, both at national and sectoral levels. Employment decline was substantial in
Macedonia, the only country in the region identified as having low GDP growth after
1999, as a result of which negative employment elasticity was found in that country too.
No employment elasticity values are available for Bosnia Herzegovina, Serbia and
Montenegrin. However, available data in these countries also show employment decline
Studies on Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) found the lowest and declining
employment intensity of GDP growth (GDP elasticity of employment) in the world after
18
For the purposes of this paper "SEE comprises the twelve nation states, they include Albania, Bosnia and
Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Romania, Serbia, Moldova, Montenegro, the Former Yugoslavia,
Republic of Macedonia, Slovenia, and Turkey. Montenegro declared its independence from Serbia on 2
June, 2006. As most of the statistical data presented in this paper relates to the period prior to the
separation, Serbia and Montenegro are treated as one state in part of the analysis. Where this is the case,
reference will be made to the SEE-11". Retrieved 18 September 2009,
http://www.ilo.int/public/english/region/eurpro/ankara/events/istanbul/ist-background.
22
1991 (Rutkoswki et.al 2005; Cazes and Nesporova 2006).19 During 1991-95, elasticity of
employment demand with respect to GDP was 0.24, which fell to 0.01 during 1995-99
period, and then to -0.19 during 1999-2003. A United Nations study concluded no
2004 in the CEE countries (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, 2005b, p.
33).
and SEE to overprotected, rigid labour markets and excessive social benefits (Rutkowski
and Scarpetta, 2005). However, this explanation of jobless growth is refuted by the lack
scaled down and new flexible forms of labour laws were introduced. A cross-country
study conducted by Kapsos (2005) also arrived at a similar conclusion. The above studies
Onaran (2007) estimated a labour demand equation based on the pooled data of
region.20 He investigated the effects of domestic factors, such as wages and output, and
international factors, such as exports, imports, and FDI, on employment during post-
wage developments, in most countries. Although the output elasticity of labour demand
was mostly positive, its low value indicated a weak relationship between employment and
19
CEE includes the following former socialist countries, which extend east from the border of Germany
and south from the Baltic Sea to the border with Greece: "Baltic states, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania,
Poland, CzechRepublic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Albania ,states of former Yugoslavia:
Slovenia, Croatia,BosniaHerzegovina, Serbia, Kosovo(disputedindependence), Montenegro, Macedonia".
Retrieved 18 September 2009, http://danpritchard.com/wiki/Central_and_Eastern_Europe.
20
These CEE countries included the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Lithuania,
Bulgaria, and Romania.
23
GDP, especially in the medium and low skilled sectors of the Czech Republic, Bulgaria,
and Romania. The process of transition resulted in downsizing of firms and productivity
investigating the phenomenon of jobless growth. Rutkowski et al. (2005) analyzed the
links between employment and economic growth in nine transition economies of Europe
during the period 1992 to 2002. They concluded that these countries were developing
symptoms of a jobless growth. They also investigated whether jobless growth in those
Central and Eastern Europe countries could be accounted for by a particular set of
they identified two main economic phases. The first phase was termed the transitional
recession experienced during the period 1990-97. The second phase started with the
1998–99 financial crisis in Russia. A rise in productivity was observed during both
phases, although output had begun to rise in the second phase. The productivity increase
was accompanied by a drop in employment, even in the second phase, in most countries.
The authors of this paper held changes in monetary and fiscal policies to be responsible
for jobless growth. Their econometric analysis indicated that the poor employment
performance since the 1998 recession was perhaps due to the worsening of the fiscal
stance, as indicated by the significant effect of the primary budget surplus variable. The
employment elasticity of output did not change significantly in the post 1997 period, but
the partial effect of output rise on employment was offset by the worsening of the fiscal
stance.21
21
Their regression included a slope dummy for the post-1997 period interacted with GDP. That term should
capture any change in the employment-output relationship that occurred during the second phase.
24
2.1.2 Country Specific Studies in Europe and North America:
During the early 1990s, a number of countries belonging to the Organization for
most of them, economic recovery was associated with a sluggish job growth (see, for
example, OECD, 1994, 53-55).23 This caused many economists to investigate joblessness
One member country of the OECD for which the phenomenon of jobless growth
has been studied extensively is Finland whose economy was hit the most in 100 years by
the recession of 1990s. Real GDP in Finland fell by almost 15 per cent during 1990s
recession. Unemployment rose to record levels, and the banking system was hit by a
serious crisis. During 1993-98, with growing GDP as compare to European Union (EU)
the Finnish economy showed signs of recovery. However, the rate of unemployment
remained above the EU average during this period. Productivity growth in Finland is
described as "excessive" both during the depression years from 1992 to 1993 when GDP
decreased, and in 1994 which was viewed as the first year of recovery. However, the
period of "excessive" productivity growth lasted only three years. Hence, a statistical test
to confirm any jobless growth during this period was necessary. This test was provided by
Sauramo (1999a) who used quarterly data starting from the first quarter of 1975 and
22
There are 34 members of OECD most of which are high-income economies with a high Human
Development Index and are regarded as developed countries such as, "Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada
,The Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland,
Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal,
Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey , United Kingdom and United States".
Retrieved 18 September 2009,
http://www.oecd.org/countrieslist.
23
In OECD‘s Jobs study (OECD, 1994, p.55) the experiences from different countries are summarized as
follows: "On balance, while the recovery in employment has been slower in some countries than in the past,
this would appear to reflect an initially weaker rebound in output rather than jobless growth as such".
25
Autoregressive (VAR) model to investigate whether economic growth in that country can
be characterized as jobless and found no statistical evidence in this regard for the entire
period. However, there was some evidence of jobless growth during 1992-94 which could
be attributed to rapid growth in labour productivity during these years. After this period,
While the above study was based on aggregate data, Sauramo (1999b)
investigated the presence of jobless growth using disaggregated quarterly data on the
manufacturing sector in Finland over the period 1976-1998. This analysis was also based
on the estimation of simple structural VAR models, but this time the author also assessed
the role of technological and structural changes in affecting the demand for labour in
Finland. The VAR model is appropriate for this analysis. Improvements in labour
productivity that occurred in the manufacturing sector, especially in the metal industry,
caused growth in these two sectors to be jobless. In the manufacturing sector, company
also been of interest in the literature. Kangasharju & Pehkonen (2001) linked this
where agriculture and public sector industries dominated, while the least decline occurred
where the private sector was dominant. Private services played a major role in
24
Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator by Arellano and Bond (1991), where the lagged
values of the variables (in levels) are used as instruments to remove the correlation between the regressors
and the error term.
26
determining the relationship between changes in employment and output in Capital and
Eastern-Northern region and in the Middle Finland region, contributing about 50 percent
and 66 percent of the total growth, respectively. The authors also found that growth
centre‘s (such as Helsinki, Turku, Tampere, Oulu, and Jyvaskyla) have an impact on
employment in their neighbouring regions. The second main contributor, in the case of
Middle Finland was industry which contributed 21 percent of the total. 25 For the Eastern-
Northern and the Capital region, public services were the second main contributor about
34 percent of the total. Bockerman (1998) used data on labour districts for the period
1988-1995 and found a strong employment and output relationship in southern Finland,
where economic activity is largely concentrated, while the link disappeared in some
districts of the eastern, northern, and western parts of the country. He also found that
various exogenous factors, such as the migration process and the quality of jobs, played a
more important role in employment fluctuations in the northern part of the country than
elsewhere.
Another European country for which the employment and economic growth
relationship has also been studied extensively is Poland where unemployment was the
most important issue faced by economists after economic transition of the early 1990s.
Kwiatkowski, Kucharski and Tokarski (2002) aimed at establishing the possible links
between GDP and unemployment between 1993 and 2001. They used three main
indicators: the number of employed; the number of unemployed; and the flow between
employment, unemployment and productivity. Their analysis suggests that in Poland, the
unemployment rates dropped but the employment growth rate was slower than the GDP
growth rate during 1995-98, which was a period of fast economic growth. During periods
25
In European countries the terms industry and manufacturing are used interchangeably.
27
when employment grew, the GDP growth rate was at least 4.8 percent. These authors also
predicted that by 2010, a GDP growth rate of at least 6 percent would be required to
create jobs in the Polish economy. They also emphasized the importance of
growth in Poland, that increased its global competitiveness, also increased its potential for
experiencing a jobless growth over the period 1991–2004. During the period, the
country‘s GDP growth was 4.3 percent, labour productivity growth was also 4.3 percent
and employment growth was zero percent. The growth of labour productivity was much
higher in Poland than in the remaining EU countries. These authors estimated the
threshold GDP growth rate in Poland to be around 4.3 percent which was much higher
The above study also provided some evidence of jobless growth on fifteen EU
countries. In some of them, labour productivity growth rates were higher than GDP
growth rates which led to employment declines (Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Slovakia,
Wolnicki, Kwiatkowski and Piasecki (2006) also attribute the jobless economic
growth in Poland mainly to labour productivity growth during the late 1990s and early
2000s. Using the interpretation of Harrod-Domar (1946) as proposed by Barro and Sala-i-
Martin (1992, p.22) these authors provide an explanation of jobless growth. "The long-
run employment growth rate is determined by the difference between the GDP growth
rate and productivity growth rate. A positive GDP growth rate is possible when there is
28
Hence, joblessness is entirely possible when productivity grows at faster rate than that
The econometric analysis in the above study was based on GDP and job growth
data obtained for the period 1990-2002 for Poland and fifteen European Union (EU-15)
Kwiatkowski, Roszkowska and Tokarski (2004), they calculate a threshold level of GDP
growth defined as the rate below which employment growth rate is zero. At first an
which log of employment is dependent on log of GDP and time trend. 27 A threshold level
of GDP growth rate is then calculated based on the econometric estimates of employment
Poland was found to have the highest threshold rate of GDP growth at about 4.38
percent, while in the EU-15, used for comparison, it ranged between 1-2 percent.28
During 2002-03, the unemployment rate in Poland was nearly three times higher than the
average unemployment rate in the EU-15 countries which could be directly attributed to
the drop in the overall demand for labour resulting from a significant rise of labour
productivity which in turn led to higher rates of GDP growth. Labour productivity during
this period rose by 60 percent in Poland, while it rose by only 20 percent in EU-15. In
sum, a rise in labour productivity in Poland was largely responsible for its jobless growth.
26
Poland is included in the European Union which is composed of 27 sovereign member states. The authors
compared Poland with other EU-15 countries namely Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France,
Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and the United
Kingdom
27
The coefficient of time trend variable is interpreted as the drop in labour demand when GDP is zero.
28
The threshold rate of GDP growth is the one below which employment growth is zero.
29
The phenomenon of jobless economic growth has also been studied in Sweden
whose economy has a large public sector. Economic growth in that country during the
early 2000s did not provide any boost to employment growth thus causing its politicians
to term their country‘s economic growth experience to be jobless. Lund (2006) confirmed
jobless growth in both private and public sectors of Sweden during 1976-2003. Public
sector had been experiencing jobless growth since early 1990s. The private sector was
divided into two sectors; industry and service. As the level of real GDP grew, Sweden
unemployment. This means that jobless growth did not occur in services sector. On the
other hand, jobless growth was experienced by the manufacturing sector since late 1970s,
which indicates that jobless growth is not a new phenomenon. She attributed jobless
growth during the period 1987-1993 to technological advances. These advances led to
with machinery.
Another study by Swane and Vistrand (2006) examined the jobless growth
phenomenon for Sweden and some selected OECD countries over the period 1980-2004,
which they divided into two sub-periods: 1980-1993 and 1994-2004.29 This study based
its analysis on the Okun‘s law. GDP elasticity of employment was about 0.7 percent for
Sweden which remained stable over time. For other OECD countries, the employment
elasticity ranged from 0.2 to 0.8. The employment and GDP move together in the long
run and their stable relationship over time suggested that the joblessness of economic
growth in Sweden identified in the previous study was a temporary situation. The
29
There are 34 members of OECD and the author compares Sweden with 21 selected OECD countries
namely Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Japan,
Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Spain , Switzerland, United Kingdom
and United States. The author provides no reason for separating the 1980-1993 periods from the rest.
30
following country specific studies are all from the United States. Although the term
―jobless growth‖ was used in the public circles of the United States since the early 1990s,
most studies on the United States are found in literature since 2001.
Schreft and Singh (2003) identified two jobless recoveries in the United States
economy by examining employment growth in the first year after the recession of 1991
and after the recession of 2001. Employment growth was only 0.14 percent after the first
recession, but it was 2.7 percent after the second recession. One possible explanation for
the failure of employment growth to resume in the first year of the recovery period was
attributed to unusually weak economic growth especially immediately after the 1991
Groshen and Potter (2003) found that the economic recovery after 2001 recession
structural change in the economy caused a permanent reallocation of workers from some
industries to others which led to slow response of aggregate employment to growth. The
task of finding new jobs in other firms or industries is generally difficult and time-
consuming as workers need time to learn new skills. This situation was further
postpone new job creation due to the risks involved in growing their businesses or
undertaking new ventures. The authors found some support for this interpretation in the
shortfall to low job creation than to widespread job elimination. Thus, improved financing
options for riskier ventures and a resolution of uncertainties about economic conditions
are the two main ingredients which require for a return to job growth.
31
Schweitzer (2003) pointed out that the U.S economic expansion of 1990s began
with such surprisingly slow employment growth that economist called it the ―jobless
participation rates all indicated jobless recovery. The unusually low level of labour force
participation led the author to term the recovery as ―less jobseeker.‖ He suggested that not
all recoveries were the same, so economic policies needed to adapt to the situation at hand
Bailey and Lawrence (2004) noted that the economic recovery in the United States
which began in the third quarter of 2001 was more jobless than 1991 recovery. On the
basis of their econometric model estimates, they predicted that real GDP, real
compensation of employees and real profits in the US will be higher in 2015 largely due
to lower prices of imports associated with off-shoring. They held that the decline in US
productivity grew faster than its GDP growth. In addition, off-shore activities and the rise
of trade were also responsible for jobless growth in the US manufacturing sector. Schreft
and Singh (2003), reviewed earlier, found that job creation in the US took sometime after
the 1991 recovery began. Bailey and Lawrence suggested that the waiting period in case
2001 recovery may be even longer. 30 They viewed international competition to be the
main cause.
Andolfatto and MacDonald (2004) noted that after the last two recessions of 1991
and 2001 in the United States, employment growth lagged the GDP recovery by several
neoclassical theory also predicts. This is because new technology impacts different
30
This prediction is confirmed by latter studies some of which are reviewed below.
32
sectors of the economy differentially, and the resulting sectoral adjustments in the labour
market take time to have an effect. Their explanation for the jobless recovery include the
varying size and scope of technological innovation, delayed effect of adopting new
The authors explored the properties of a Real Business Cycles (RBC) model in
which growth is driven by technological advances that improve factor productivity. They
do not claim, however, that all technological advances lead to jobless recoveries. Glosser
and Golden (2004) consider the substitution between employment and weekly hours of
work in the US manufacturing sector as a possible source of jobless recovery. The multi-
equation vector auto regressions methodology was used to get the impulse response
functions of both employment and weekly hours. The results revealed a marked change in
labour input adjustments since 1979, Weekly hours worked by workers rose somewhat,
a skill-upgrading of jobs under greater market pressures in order to control cost. For
policy purposes, the results of the above study imply that active labour market policies
would likely facilitate a more robust job creation instead of longer work hours following
growth in output.
Aaronson, Rissman, and Sullivan (2004a) noted that job recoveries after recession
slowed down since 1990‘s. During each of the five recessions of the 1960s, 1970s, and
1980s, non from employment took less than four month to recover and exceed its
previous level of the recession and in the recoveries it took on average 26 month to
recover. However, after the recession of early 1990‘s, employment growth was much
31
In a previous study, Greenwood, MacDonald, and Zhang (1996) had developed a real business cycle
model to include the effect of varying size of technological innovation and labour re-allocation and found
that a jobless recovery can be the result of a technology-driven recession. Their explanation hinged
critically on the above three assumptions.
33
weaker. It took 14 months for the number of jobs to return to the level reached just before
the trough and an additional nine months before it exceeded the previous expansion‘s
peak. Job growth was even more disappointing after the recession of 2001. After 26
months into that recovery, nonfarm payrolls were still 0.5 percent lower than those of
November 2001, the day the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) declared
that the recession had ended. Many analysts (Lilien, 1981; Abraham and Kurtz, 1986;
structural change greatly increased the number of workers forced by job loss to make
major career transitions. Because securing a new job in a different economic sector is a
growth was observed. Of course, in the long run, reallocating workers to their most
productive use greatly benefits the economy. However, in the short run, reallocation is
costly".
Aaronson, Rissman, and Sullivan (2004b) do not support the view that the need to
reallocate labour across industrial sectors has been particularly great during the last two
recessions (1991, 2001) or the jobless recoveries that followed. These authors emphasize
the need to focus future analysis on changes in occupational mix of employment rather
than the industrial mix because, according to their findings, industrial restructuring of
Gomme (2005) also explained the two jobless recoveries of early 1990s and 2000s
with the probabilities of job finding and job separation. "Flows into employment are
called job finding; flows out of employment are referred to as job separations. The
probabilities of job finding and job separation can be calculated from monthly data on the
34
levels of employment and unemployment". The author analyzed the cyclical behavior of
these probabilities in the postwar U.S. economy. During the recession of early 1990s,
both probabilities showed the same behaviour, while both probabilities showed the
different behaviour in the 2001 recession. The probability of finding a job was similar to
that experienced in the early 1990‘s recession. However, the probability of job-separation
either the firing decisions of firms or the decisions of workers to quit their jobs - is
the job separation probability followed the pattern of previous business cycles during
1990–91, the job-separation probability was unusually low during 2001, a fact that by
itself would tend to maintain the level of employment. Thus, explanations of the jobless
Hemraj, Madrick and Semmler (2006) interpret the recent phenomenon of jobless
growth in the US in terms of Okun‘s theory. They measured output by GDP volume at
constant prices and used quarterly data from 1961-2001. They estimated the Okun‘s
coefficient for U.S (0.37), Germany (0.22), France (0.17) and for U.K (0.31). They
demonstrated that a declining response of job growth stems from a decline in the Okun
coefficient. They also show that, in Germany and France, this coefficient had not been
falling but rising. The previous higher response of job growth to economic growth in the
All studies that have been reviewed above ignored the fact that employment
growth may also be affected by the output gap, i.e., the difference between actual and
considered this possibility for the US by examining the relationship between employment
35
growth and output gap. In addition, he also analyzed the relationship between
employment and economic growth. State level data were used for the period 1990-2003.
employment demand models while fixed effects technique was used for the pooled
regression. His results indicated that although economic growth had some immediate
impact on employment, its effects continued for several quarters in most of the states
considered. He found that nine of the ten states showed a positive and significant
relationship between employment growth and GDP gap, with the exception of California
which was attributed in part due to its fiscal crisis. State level employment elasticities
with respect to the GDP gap ranged between 0.20 and 0.56 and with respect to the GDP
growth ranged between 0.31 and 0.61. The national level elasticities, based on the pooled
regression, were found to be 0.39 and 0.47, respectively. In short, this study showed low
It is concluded from most of the US studies that the last two recoveries, of 1991
and 2001, were different from the ones observed in the past due to a weak post-recession
(in the period of recovery) employment performance that led economic commentators to
coin the term ‗jobless recovery‘ (see Schreft and Singh, 2003; Groshen and Potter, 2003;
Gomme, 2005). While there is a continued debate in the United States as to whether the
two jobless recoveries of the early 1990s and the early 2000s should be attributed to
that the strong job growth that was once a typical feature of recoveries may be a thing of
the past.
36
2.2 African and Asian Studies:
One common limitation of studies which focus on the less advanced countries of
Africa and Asia is data reliability. This problem is further complicated by the presence of
a large informal sector whose employment changes are not captured in official statistics.
For example, Sinha and Adam (2004) recognized that there could be a rise of
employment in India that is not captured by official figures due to the presence of a large
informal sector. 32 With increased competition in the formal sector that has led to severe
cost-cutting measures including a reduction in employment, the informal sector has been
providing livelihoods for the new unemployed. Hence, any study in the developing
country that investigates jobless growth based on formal sector data is likely to result in
misleading conclusions. Hence, all developing country studies tend to make clear
Most African studies on the issue of jobless growth are on South Africa where
unemployment rate has been in double digits since early 1980s. The most cited empirical
study on South Africa is the one conducted by Loots (1998). Using data for the period
1970 – 1996, he estimated the GDP elasticity of employment in the formal non-
agricultural sector to be less than unity - in the range of 0.49 during 1970-80, 0.76 during
1980-90 and -0.55 during 1990-96, while on national level the GDP elasticity of
employment was 0.16 over the period 1990-1995 - thus leading him to conclude that
32
The informal sector in India contributes more than 60 percent of GDP (NAS) and covers about 87
percent of the workforce (Sinha, Sangeeta, Siddiqui, 2003).
37
In the same study, the author also estimated the GDP elasticity of total formal and
informal employment in South Africa to be in the range of 0.77 during 1970-80, 1.01
during 1980-90 and 0.16 during 1990-95. Although the GDP and unemployment
relationship was negative - a one per cent increase in the real GDP led to a 1.26 percent
decrease in the unemployment rate - the R-square value is 0.16 which is very low and
indicated that only 16 percent of the change in the unemployment rate could be explained
by economic growth. The low elasticity figures and the weak relationship between GDP
and unemployment show inability of the South African economy - especially the formal
Toit and Koekemoer (2003) confirmed the presence of jobless growth in South
Africa by using a neoclassical model of wages and employment for skilled and unskilled
labour. They investigated the structural nature of the problem of rising unemployment
since 1970s with a view to investigate if economic growth was jobless in South Africa.
Their model of wages and employment was based on the systems approach followed by
Layard and Nickell (1985, 1986) and Nickell (1988). A Cobb-Douglas cost function was
analysis was 1970 to 2000 and all data series were employed in the first difference form
in error correction models, which captured the short- as well as long-run dynamics of the
labour market. A single equation residual based Co- integration (ADF) estimation
procedure was chosen. The estimated elasticity of labour demand with respect to the GDP
growth was found to be 0.48 in case of skilled labour, and 0.39 in case of unskilled. These
low responses of employment to GDP growth are indicators of jobless growth in South
Africa.
Altman (2003) defined jobless growth in two broad ways: Firstly, "jobless growth
may refer to a situation whereby the overall economy is growing, but the absolute
38
employment level is stagnant or falling, rendering near-zero or negative employment
growth rates. Alternatively, the term may be used to describe a situation whereby the
overall economy is growing, while the rate of unemployment is rising". In his empirical
analysis, he found no strong correlation between GDP and employment growth in South
Africa over the period 1994-2002. He also found that higher GDP growth generally
accompanied higher unemployment rate. A shift away from formal to informal sector was
observed where there are lower returns to education, lower wages, and fewer contractual
benefits for the employees. His calculations suggested that as of 2001, the South African
economy would have needed about 450,000 net new jobs each year while on average only
240,000 net new jobs had been created annually since 1994, almost all of which were in
the informal sector. This higher rate of desired job creation meant annual employment
growth of 3.9 to 4.4 per cent. Due to dramatic structural changes taking place in South
Africa, it was difficult to calculate precisely the rate of GDP growth that would have been
indication of the needed GDP growth rate, the author cited literature on other countries
that had transformed less dramatically. "In the South-East Asian economies, for example,
employment growth rates of 2.5 to 4 per cent would normally be associated with GNP
growth rates around 5 to 8 per cent or more (Mazumdar & Basu, 1997). In these
manufactured exports, made possible by a low cost structure. On the other hand,
developed economies that have overcome high unemployment have relied substantially
services) and low- value social and personal services, such as health, education and child
care. Ireland is one such example, where employment growth rates generated in this way
39
have averaged 2.6 per cent per annum during 1991 to 1997, while GDP grew by more
are benefiting" (Altman 2001). At the same time, "service sector industries are expanding
as in Ireland, and entry is easier for formal and informal Small Medium and Micro
Enterprises (SMMEs)" (Lewis 2001). Hence, Ireland‘s example was used by the author to
conclude that the South African economy would generate less than 1 per cent annual
Bhorat and Oosthuizen (2007) analyzed South African data from 1995-2005.
Their study can be divided into two parts. In the first part, they provide a descriptive
analysis of GDP and employment growth. GDP and employment growth had positive
relationship over the period 1967-1993 but from 1994-2002 these variables exhibited a
negative relationship. This means employment fell during economic growth in most of
the post 1990 period. The authors also used two simple performance indicators ―Target
Growth Rate‖ and the ―Employment Absorption Rate‖ or EAR.33 They concluded that
employment grew just 29.3 percent during 1967-2002, but it would have needed to grow
by 66.7 percent of the net entrants to the labour market. The economy was able to provide
just 44 jobs for every 100 economically active individuals that entered the labour market
33
"The target growth rate measures how fast employment would have had to expand in order to provide
work for all net entrants to the labour market over a given period. The employment absorption rate is the
ratio between actual employment growths and the desired or target employment growth rate"(p.10-11).
40
In the second part of their analysis, the authors obtained their GDP elasticity of
employment by running an OLS regression of the log of employment demand on the log
of wage rate, user cost of capital and GDP. They estimated this elasticity for the non-
agriculture sector using formal employment data for the period 1980-98, as obtained from
the official South African Reserve Bank (SARB). Their autocorrelation adjusted results of
the regression model yielded the GDP elasticity of employment to be 0.29 for 1980-89
agriculture sector, they also tested the jobless growth phenomenon on disaggregated data
for the period 1995-2005. All sectors had a positive employment growth except for the
mining and agriculture sectors which were hence identified as experiencing jobless
growth.
Another African study (Fofana, 2001) investigated jobless growth in the private
elasticities with respect to GDP over the period 1975-1995. He also used foreign aid,
investment and public expenditure as explanatory variables in the model. The study
concluded that employment and economic growth do not move together in the long run.
In sum, his econometric findings showed a presence of jobless growth in the Ivorian
34
Their study also showed that the employment elasticities with respect to foreign aid and investment were
statistically significant, but only the latter had a positive effect on employment. Public expenditure also had
statistically insignificant impact on employment.
41
2.2.2 Asian Studies:
Khan (2007) has identified several factors responsible for jobless growth in
competitive environment that necessitated economic reforms which in turn led to worker
layoffs and adoption of a cautious approach to new hiring; a structural shift in the
economies towards less employment-intensive sectors which may be the result of greater
production; and reduced availability of credits for small and medium size enterprises who
tend to be more labour intensive. Some of these factors have been the focus of Asian
countries with per capita incomes similar to India‘s has normally been led by the
manufacturing sector. However, in recent years, the services sector has been the engine of
economic growth rather than manufacturing.35 These authors used both national and
sector wise data from 1960 to 2000 to estimate employment elasticities in the pre-Reform
period (1983-84 to 1987-88) and the post-Reform period (1993-94 to 1999-2000).36 Their
calculations indicated that between these two periods a sharp decline in the overall
employment elasticity from 0.6 to 0.16. They also noted sizeable reductions in
employment elasticity in the agriculture sector from 0.87 to 0.01, in manufacturing sector
35
Rodrik and Subramaniam (2004) provided a very optimistic view about the Indian economy, that Indian
economy would grow faster than China, at the rate of 7 to 8 percent, for two reasons. The first was the
presence of a higher level of well developed institutions in India because of it democratic political system.
Second reason was the faster growth in the labour force of India, at 2 percent annually, than in that of China
and other competitor countries.
36
Market-based economic reforms were introduced in India during 1988-89. The purpose of these reforms
was to integrate the Indian economy with global economy by adopting liberal policies such as liberalization
of trade and foreign exchange rate, and increased privatisation. It was argued that these reforms would
benefit wealthy people and bypass the poor. The Ninth Plan stated one of its objectives as ―growth with
social justice and equity.‖
42
from 0.59 to 0.33 and in construction sector from 2.81 to 0.82. These reductions occurred
because the growth rates of GDP in agriculture and manufacturing sectors were slower
after 1997 than they were in 1980s. In addition, employment elasticity increased in the
post reforms period in a number of service sector industries including finance, insurance,
determinants of employment elasticity into three key factors (i) the trend in the domestic
real exchange rate, abbreviated as DRER. 37 (ii) The wage-employment trade-off; and (iii)
the trend in the share of wages. They analyzed the formal manufacturing sector data for
the period 1974-75 to 2001-02 and found that employment elasticity showed a cyclical
pattern in four sub-periods, such as reform period of 1986-96, and the immediate post-
reform period of 1996-2002. During the first period, 1974-80, the employment elasticity
was 0.99 but it declined sharply to -0.16 during the 1980-86. During 1986-96,
employment elasticity rose to 0.33 but it experienced a significant drop again during
1996-2002 to -1.39. This last drop was attributed by the authors to both factors isolated in
their decomposition exercise: (i) DRER further turning against manufacturing and (ii) the
wage growth at the expense of employment growth. Both of these factors were important
as indeed they were in the period of jobless growth. But when considering the magnitudes
involved, these authors concluded that the quantitative impact of the DRER (price) factor
37
DRER also define as, the relative movement over time of the producer price index relative to the
consumer price index.
38
The relative movements of producer and consumer price indices; sometimes called the ‗domestic real
exchange rate‘, or DRER, "translates the wage bill growth into real terms in terms of consumer prices. The
share of wages and the wage-employment trade-off are both labour market variables. They are tied together
in neo-classical economics by the supply functions of labour and of capital working through the production
function. Together, they determine the share of wages, the level of employment, and the wage per worker.
Economists recognize the importance of expectations both in the determination of the wage per worker and
the share of wages. Thus, the difference between the neo-classical tradition, stressing the dominance of
43
Paul and Pellissery (2007) attributed jobless growth in India to recent policy
changes on the demand side of the labour market. They suggested that the policy shift
away from capital intensive methods may have generated greater mismatches in the
labour market, thereby creating a significant impact on the economic growth itself. The
especially since the Indian education system was unable to create the employable labour
force. The paper emphasized the need for appropriate employment strategies at regional
levels by focusing on the appropriate human capital demands of their labour markets.
Karmakar (2008) reviewed the effects of market liberalization and trade openness
on the employment generating potential of service sector. Indian services sector employs
about 26 percent of labour force, while its share in the national GDP is over 55 per cent.
This was a clear indication of jobless growth in this high growth sector. A disaggregation
of data showed that, finance, insurance, real estate and business, contributed 23.4 per cent
to the total incremental employment generated in services sector during the five-year
period ending in 2004-05. 39 About 16.8 million workers found jobs in services sector
during the five-year period. However, despite the low overall elasticity of employment in
the country at just 0.48, the disaggregated data showed that the employment elasticity was
employment of 0.94 in finance, insurance, real estate and business services followed by
factor supply functions, and the post-Keynesian tradition, emphasizing the importance of decisions
originating on the employers‘ side, have been reduced. The relative importance of the wage-employment
trade-off is that a negative sign of the value signifies that there is a decline towards wage growth, while a
positive value indicates that employment growth is preferred. Thus, other things being equal, a positive
value of the first term would favour an increase in employment elasticity, while a negative value would
signify that the bias towards wage growth reduces employment elasticity. The DRER effect is the
difference between producer price growth and the consumer price growth. Given real output growth, a
negative value of the DRER is similar to a leakage from the growing pie, which has to be shared between
wage growth and employment growth: ceteris paribus, it depresses employment elasticity".
39
The gross incremental employment was around 60.82 million during this period.
44
construction sector at 0.88, trade 0.59 and transport 0.27. The employment elasticity was
1.52 in agriculture and 0.34 in manufacturing sector over the period 1999 to 2005.
The author of the above study also argued that, contrary to developed countries,
Indian service sector‘s employment elasticity was lower than that in its manufacturing
sector. Services sector benefited from outsourcing since 2000. Her statistical analyses
indicated that India continues to exhibit a strong revealed comparative advantage, RCA,
in services relative to goods sector. 40 Finally, the author of the above study also argued
offering cheaper final services to both individual and business consumers and by
providing inputs into productive activities. Hence, a liberal and pro-competitive service
Another country for which jobless growth has been investigated is Turkey.
Pamukcu and Yeldan (2005) allude to the possibility of jobless growth in Turkey when
evaluating the outcomes of that country‘s macroeconomic policy. Turkey had a high
economic growth rate but also a high unemployment rate during the 2001 recovery period
leading the authors to conclude that problem of jobless growth exist in the Turkish‘s
economy. Between 2002 and 2004, unemployment rate continuously increased in Turkey
from 6.5 to 10.3 percent, and employment averaged a negative 0.1 percent growth, even
40
"India‘s RCA in services has been rising sharply since mid-1990s, increasing the gap with the goods
sector drastically in the past decade. A time-series analysis of the service sector‘s RCA indicated that
India‘s current strength in commercial service exports comes from business services including finance,
management and other professional services among others. Between 1996 and 2000, India‘s RCA in
business services grew most dramatically, rising by 327 per cent. The recent trend of increased
specialization of India‘s exports of services in a selected set of sub-sectors within the services sector reflects
the change in composition of exports".
45
though GDP grew at 7.5 percent rate. 41 Employment decline was observed in seven of the
Tezcek (2007) followed up on the above study and considered three possibilities
1. Agriculture Displacements in the pre and post 1980‘s period: Until 1950s, about
80 percent of total labour force in Turkey was employed in agriculture. Since then,
employment cannot be a reason for jobless growth that was observed in 2001.
rest of the world which may have made employment practices more competitive.
One measure adopted in this regard was the increased mechanization of workplace and
less reliance on labour. As a result, between 1997 and 2005, the rate of labour
productivity increased by 52.9 percent but the rate of employment declined by 17 percent
Another Asian country for which jobless growth has been investigated is
Indonesia. Islam and Nazara (2000) estimated GDP elasticity of employment growth in
Indonesia and the threshold level of GDP growth required to absorb the new entrants into
41
Unemployment was a severe problem in Turkey, especially among the young urban labour force,
reaching 26 percent in 2003-04.
46
its labour force. They used province wise as well as national data from 1979 to 1996 and
estimated the employment elasticity using different statistical techniques such as, simple
descriptive analysis, the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method, Generalized Least
Squares (GLS) method and the random effect model. Their estimates varied from a low of
analysis. Indonesia required between 3.47 per cent to 4.68 per cent threshold levels of
GDP growth to absorb its 2 million new entrants to the labour force each year. 42 Islam
and Nazara‘s study suffered a caveat in that it did not account for any possible non-
Ghannam (2008) used the data of Saudi private firms and investigated the
correction models and Granger causality techniques to determine the direction between
the two variables in both short and long runs. The study covered the period 1973-2002.
growth and employment in Saudi Arabian private sector. Error correction model and
Granger causality test results indicated a unidirectional causality from economic growth
to employment, and not vice versa, in the short and long runs. The authors suggested that
the Saudi private firms should focus on the quality of hired labour to increase their
42
A widely cited statistic is that every one per cent growth in GDP leads to the creation of 400,000 jobs.
This led a recent (1999) ILO Mission to Indonesia to conclude that the economy would have to grow at 5
per cent to absorb new entrants to the labour force, but even such a growth rate would not be able to cope
with the backlog of the unemployed and underemployed.
47
2.3 Studies on the Relationship between Economic and Employment Growth in
Pakistan:
No study has investigated the issue of jobless growth in Pakistan directly. Some
studies have estimated the employment and economic growth relationships, and a few of
these have estimated the output elasticity of employment. Some of these studies are
descriptive while others are empirical. Results of these studies can be used to infer the
nature of economic growth, jobless or job generating, as was done for other countries in
Pakistan‘s economy. The elasticity was found to be 0.33 in agriculture, 0.35 in Mining
and manufacturing and 0.33 for the overall economy. Many other studies, for example
Kemal & Irfan (1983), Kemal (1990), Chaudhary & Hamid (1994, 1998), Aslam and
Zulfiqar (2008), also provided estimates of employment elasticities which are reported in
Table 2.1. Nationally, the calculated values are in the range of 0.33 and 0.41. Only Aslam
and Zulfiqar (2008) conducted their study for the post-2000 period. Except for Aslam
and Zulfiqar (2008) all studies have the same caveat, as some studies reviewed earlier in
this Chapter, that they do not account for the possibility of data non-stationarity which
48
Table 2.1: Sector Wise Elasticities of Employment with Respect to GDP in Pakistan
Elasticity
Chaudhary Hyder Baqai Kemal Planning Aslam&
Sectors & Hamid Commission* Zulfiqar
Source: * Based on Anwar (2004), State Bank of Pakistan, Table.9. All other studies are reported
in Aslam and Zulfiqar (2008) who do not provide the time period of coverage. These studies were
not available to me at the time of writing.
Majid‘s (2000) report was based on a study he conducted in 1997-98 for the
and the School of Policy, Planning and Development (SPPD). The basic objective of his
report was to provide input to the development of an employment policy for Pakistan‘s
Ninth Five Year Plan period, 1997-98 to 2001-02. He emphasized the importance of
the study:
2. Pakistan‘s employment growth has been lower than its GDP growth in all decades
except in the early 1970s. Since the mid 1980s, volatility of employment growth
has increased. During the high economic growth of the 1980s, employment
elasticity of employment with respect to GDP growth has generally followed the
employment growth.
The first two patterns noted above are indicative for jobless growth. The volatility
employment growth in order to more fully understand the sources of jobless growth.
elasticities in assessing the employment situation in Pakistan. The study provided national
and six sectoral estimates of the employment elasticities over the three different decades
(1970s, 1980s, 1990s) using a descriptive analysis of data. These estimates are reported in
Table 2.2
Table 2.2: National and Sectoral Elasticity of Employment with respect to GDP in
Pakistan, 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s
50
The elasticity estimates of Table 2.2 may be misleading as the issue of possible
data stationarity is ignored. Furthermore, no controls are introduced for the impact of
other variables on employment. However, these are the only available consistent
Pakistan. These estimates indicate that a weak relationship existed between employment
and GDP growth at the national level until the 1980s, when the national elasticity values
were lower than unity, but the relationship became stronger in the 1990s. The
Finance sectors. Structural changes in the transport sector and in the combined mining
GDP growth relationships in these sectors while it appears to indicate its declining
Majid‘s report also discussed two important issues with the growth and
development experience in Pakistan. The first one was the insensitivity of economic
growth to income distribution. A structural change in the economy may have spurred
economic growth but it has not improved the lives of a majority of the population by
anywhere near what that growth process could have achieved. The second issue was the
has historically relied on borrowing from short term private sources, loans by domestic
43
Agricultural output growth rates were reasonable in the 1980s and 1990s but slightly declined in 1990s.
Employment growth and productivity growth have declined during this time, leaving a more or less
constant elasticity of employment. However, the low employment–low productivity growth situation is
sensitive to growth conditions in the rest of the economy and the sector needs to be protected on this count.
An overview of the employment situation in agriculture suggests that over the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s, a
profitability-driven cropping pattern changes based on the new technological package that may have
increased labour requirements in the sector. However, the changing distribution of operated holdings,
mechanization and tenure shifts may have partially adapted to, as well as reduced, these increases.
51
As a result, Pakistan now faces a profile of increasing future debt service
payments. These two issues are also mutually reinforcing. A growth process insensitive to
the distribution is complemented by the unwillingness or the inability of the State to tax
the better-off sections of society. This in part makes the public finance structure narrow
and precarious.
recommended that the country should focus on achieving the growth of GDP in the
manufacturing sector which boost the employment and promote the dynamic sub-sectors
within the small-scale enterprise sector. The limitation of increased labour absorption in
generation include Kazi (1987), Nadvi (1990), and Kemal and Mehmood (1993). They all
suggest that informal sector has been an important source of employment generation in
Section, to isolate the impact of informal sector on the official employment data. Some
studies (Haq, 1993 and Chaudhary and Hamid, 1998) have discussed that fiscal policy
and economic planning were not focused towards employment generation in Pakistan.
Haque and Waqar (2006) suggest greater reliance on domestic commerce sector to
concentration of small businesses in this sector. In addition, expansion of this sector can
also help generate employment opportunities in the other sectors of the economy, such as
52
Most of the above studies did not perform any econometric estimation and none
has discussed or analyzed employment and economic growth in the context of jobless
economic growth. Hence, the present study is an attempt to fill this gap in Pakistan‘s
2.4 Summary:
estimates of the output elasticity of employment. Some studies have used these estimates
to calculate the threshold level of GDP growth, i.e., the rate of GDP growth below which
employment growth will not occur. The actual growth rate in GDP is then compared with
this rate.
cycle. When the economy starts to recover from a recession, employment grows at the
same time or soon thereafter. If employment takes longer to recover, the recovery is
viewed as jobless. However, some studies in literature have also based their analysis on
the seminal work of Okun‘s to analyze the phenomenon of jobless growth. A declining
Other studies have simply interpreted a weak employment elasticity value as an indicator
of jobless growth.
developing countries (for example, India, South Africa, Cote d Ivoire) as well as in
developed countries (for example, the United States, Poland, Finland, and most of the
53
Empirical studies on jobless growth in developing countries are somewhat limited
in their scope due to data limitations. Employment data used in these studies may not be
meaningful since they do not take into account the general trend towards a decrease in the
working time per employee (Maddison, 1991). Lack of consideration of this tendency
addition, as clearly stated by Saget (2000), attention should be paid to the impact of the
unofficial economy on GDP and employment data, because it may alter their relationship.
54
CHAPTER 3
The previous chapter provided a review of the empirical literature on the issue of jobless
economic growth and business cycle which is reviewed in the next section (Section 3.1).
The method of analysis employed in estimating the nature of economic growth, jobless or
job generating, in Pakistan is discussed in Section 3.2. Following this method of analysis,
function. Section 3.4 describes some issues in the estimation of employment demand
growth can be best described under the background of economic growth theories,
business cycle theories and Okun‘s (1962) law. Economic growth refers to a change in
economic output, measured by the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of a country.
According to the neoclassical theory, the long term economic growth in an economy
depends on the growth in labour force, growth in human capital, growth in physical
the conditions in goods and services market of the economy. Factors that may change
aggregate supply are changes in factor prices and factor productivity. Factors that may
foreigners‘ demand for goods and services and changes in household consumption
55
resulting from changes in personal income. Unexpected changes in either aggregate
economic growth around its long-term trend and such fluctuations are called business
Business cycle research has a long history, much of which was initiated by US
researchers working at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the early
1920s. These earlier researchers included Mitchell (1927), Mitchell and Burns (1938) and
Burns and Mitchell (1946) who were particularly interested in the widespread and
unemployment cannot persist for long because wages will fall in order to get rid of the
excess supply. Keynesians on the other hand believe that wages are not changed very
easily, especially not downwards. Thus, excess demand and supply may persist for a
while.
normal activity for a considerable period without any marked tendency either towards
recovery or towards complete collapse. Moreover, the evidence indicates that full, or even
44
The best definition to date of the business cycle is that proposed by Burns and Mitchell: "Business
cycles are a type of fluctuations found in aggregate economic activity of nations that organize their work
mainly in business enterprise: a cycle consists of expansions occurring at about the same time in many
economic activities, followed by similarly, general recessions, contractions, and revivals which merge into
the expansion phase of the next cycle; this sequence of changes is recurrent but not periodic; in duration
business cycles vary from more than one year to 10 or 12 years; they are not divisible into shorter cycles of
similar character with amplitudes approximating their own"(Burns and Mitchell, 1946, p.3)
56
start rapidly but wear out before proceeding to great extremes, and an intermediate
situation is viewed as normal. It is upon the fact that fluctuations tend to wear themselves
out before proceeding to extremes and eventually to reverse themselves, that the theory of
National output (GDP) may fluctuate more rapidly than unemployment in the
may get discouraged and drop out of the labour force after which they are no longer
counted in the unemployment statistics. Also, the employed workers may work shorter
hours and labour productivity may decrease, perhaps because employers retain more
workers than they need. The different phases of business cycles are presented in Figure
3.1.
45
John Maynard Keynes (1936)
57
In the above Figure, a business cycle has been divided into two broad periods:
contraction, also called recession, and expansion. During the recession period, the
economic output as a whole is in decline. More specifically, recession occurs after the
business cycle has peaked, but before it becomes a trough. The economy enters this phase
because the bottlenecks that occur at the peak, due to limited resources, result in higher
prices of factors of production and of final goods and services that eventually dampen the
investment demand. In most economies, a recession is said to occur when the real GDP
has declined for two or more consecutive quarters. For most people, a recession in the
economy can be the source of harsh economic conditions because as the economy pushes
into a recession people start losing their jobs. While no recession lasts without end, it is
very difficult to judge just how long a down trend will persist.
During the period of expansion, the economy moves from a trough to a peak. This
period is divided into two sub-periods, i.e., recovery and prosperity. In this period,
business activity surges and gross domestic product expands until it reaches a peak. The
economy enters this phase after reaching trough as it starts to replace its existing plant
and equipment that begin to wear off after sometime. This replacement investment
generates an economic activity, more workers are hired, additional income is generated
thereby creating additional demand for goods and services as well as that of the factors of
production, and "economic recovery" takes place. Recovery turns into ―prosperity‖ when
the economic output exceeds the output at the previous peak of the business cycle. The
whole period of expansion lasts on average about three to four years but has also been
Andolfatto and MacDonald (2004) noted that after the last two recessions of 1991
and 2001 in the United States, employment growth lagged the GDP recovery by several
58
quarters. According to them, a recession followed by a jobless recovery is what
neoclassical theory also predicts. This is because new technology impacts different
sectors of the economy differentially, and the resulting sectoral adjustments in the labour
market take time to have an effect. Their explanation for the jobless recovery include the
varying size and scope of technological innovation , delayed effect of adopting new
technology and a slow reallocation of labour across different firms. 46 When economies
have been in the recovery phase of a business cycle with growing GDP, employment has
grown at the same time, or soon thereafter. However, lately this fact concerning the
relationship has been questioned and the concern of jobless growth has been raised.
The long-run relationship between employment and GDP growth may be obtained
from the Okun‘s (1962) law which is primarily based on empirical observations that can
vary depending on the country and time period under consideration. For the United
States, Okun found that a one point increase in the unemployment rate is associated with
two percentage points of decline in real GDP. More recently, Abel and Bernanke (2005)
also verified this relationship. Reasons for a weak relationship between GDP and
more workers than needed during an economic downturn, reduction in work hours,
discourage worker effect which tends to increase the official unemployment rate, and a
labour force can result in growth in real output without a fall in the unemployment rate
46
In a previous study, Greenwood, MacDonald, and Zhang (1996) had developed a real business cycle
model to include the effect of varying size of technological innovation and labour re-allocation and found
that a jobless recovery can be the result of a technology-driven recession. Their explanation hinged
critically on the above three assumptions.
59
3.2 Method of Analysis:
The previous chapter provided a review of the empirical literature that has
investigated the issue of jobless growth in different countries. Most studies have used the
concept employment elasticity of demand with respect to GDP to infer the presence or
absence of any jobless growth in an economy. The employment elasticity of demand with
This ratio indicates the extent of the response of employment in the economy to a change
in national output. Some studies have calculated the arc elasticity of employment directly
by using annual data on employment and GDP. Others have estimated employment
elasticity is then used to directly infer any jobless growth in the economy. It is also used
to calculate the minimum GDP growth that must take place in an economy to generate
any new employment. The actual rate of growth in GDP is then compared with this
―threshold‖ GDP growth rate. The present study will use the latter approach to investigate
if the average GDP growth in Pakistan over the period 1974 to 2008 was jobless. 47
the production function approach which is standard in the microeconomics literature. The
demand for final output, or GDP, in the economy. The value of employment elasticity of
demand with respect to GDP will be used to calculate the threshold level of the GDP
growth rate. This is the level of growth rate which must be achieved by the economy to
generate any growth in employment. Finally, the actual GDP growth rate in the economy
47
A direct calculation of the arc elasticity of demand from raw data suffers from two problems. First it
considers only the extreme values of employment and GDP, thereby ignoring any interim effects on data.
Second, its value is highly unstable. Hence, an econometric estimation is preferable (Gupta and Singh,
2005).
60
over the period 1973-74 to-2007-08 will be compared with the threshold level of GDP
growth rate. The data used in this study span the period 1974 to 2008. Separate estimates
will be obtained using time series data for the entire economy and using data for seven
broad sectors of the economy in pooled form. The next Section derives the empirical
Some of these studies include Fair (1969), Hamermesh (1986) and Hazeldine (1981).
aggregate production function in which the national output (usually the Gross Domestic
Product, GDP) is expressed as a function of two inputs, i.e., labour and capital.
with some economic assumptions so that the employment demand is dependent on the
final output and not on input prices. 48 Although the demand equation is derived for an
individual firm, the analysis is conducted for the economy which is viewed as a collective
producing unit.
A two input-single output production function for a single firm can be written in a
48
An alternative derivation of employment demand equation in which factor price ratio appears as an
explanatory variable is provided in Appendix I.
61
Where X denotes the output level while Z1 and Z2 are labour and capital inputs,
respectively.
In the short run, a firm‘s capital is assumed to be fixed so that the short run
Assuming, invertability, equation (2) may be solved for Z1 to give the following
expression,
Z1 = f (X) (3)
Which shows the firm‘s desired level of labour input (Z1) as a function of its
output level (X). Here we see that the above equation (3) is the employment demand
function derived from the technical relationship between the firm‘s inputs and output as
represented by its short run production function given by equation (2). This simple model
is based on the usual assumption of technical efficiency of the production function, in the
sense that equations (1) and (2) show the maximum output level for each possible
combination of inputs (Henderson and Quandt, 1980, p.66). Here we see that in the
employment demand function there is no role of the wage rate in affecting the firm‘s
desired level of labour input. The analysis in this study is based on such a labour demand
equation, which has also been estimated by Greenaway et al. (1999) for UK, Hine and
Wright (1998) for UK, and Milner and Wright (1998) for Mauritius. In the context of
jobless growth, this function has been estimated by Kwiatkowski et.al (2004) and Wolnicki
et al (2006), among others. This equation was also used by Stehrer (2004) for analyzing
62
To derive the employment demand equation for Pakistan, a Cobb-Douglas (1928)
production function is assumed.49 This production function at a given time period, t, can
be written as follows:
Where,
A(t) = A measure of input productivity assumed to grow over time in Hicks – neutral
fashion50
α and β are exponents of and which measure the labour and capital elasticity of
output respectively.
Where,
49
In a Cobb-Douglas production function, the elasticity of substitution between inputs is constant at unity.
More flexible specifications of production functions include Constant Elasticity of Substitution and
Translog production functions. Zahid,Akbar and Jaffry (1992) find that the elasticity of substitution
between capital and labour in Pakistani manufacturing sector is generally low and consistent with Cobb
Douglas production function. Battesse, Malik and Sultana (1993) find that in food manufacturing, elasticity
of substitution is not statistically significantly different from unity. Kalim (2009) finds the overall elasticity
of substitution in manufacturing to be 0.96. All of these studies are based on Constant Elasticity of
Substitution and translog specification of production functions.
50
Hicks-neutral technical change (Hicks, 1932) refers to a technical change that does not affect the factor
ratio in the sector which is progressing. Hence, such a change does not affect the factor price ratio in that
sector, if the production function is homogeneous. According to Krugman (1999), Hicks-neutral technical
change comes up in practice only for aggregate production functions.
51
Charles, Knox and Marie (1976), See Katzner (I 970) for further details.
63
θ = Positive constant
t = Time trend
(4)
The equation (4) is non-linear in terms of time trend which captures shifts in the
production function brought about by the technical progress leading to change in the
The above equation (4) can be linearized by taking natural logarithms on both
(5)
(6)
Therefore,
(7)
64
where,
The above equation (7) shows that for any given level of output, the firm‘s desired
level of labour input in a given time period is negatively related to its use of capital input,
in other words the production isoquant drawn between capital and labour is negatively
sloped. The positive relationship of employment demand with the level of output
indicates the scale effect on labour demand: for any given quantity of capital used in a
particular time period employment demand will rise with an increase in output.
Ball and St Cyr (1966) suggested growth in capital stock can be assumed to be
similar to technical progress which can be captured by the time trend variable.
Kwiatkowski et al (2004) and Wolnicki et al (2006) assumed the same in their empirical
study on jobless growth in 48 Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) and for European
countries, respectively. An important question to ask is whether capital stock growth can
be captured by the time trend variable in a developing country like Pakistan where
markets for capital goods may not function as efficiently as in a developed country.
In the absence of reliable data, it is assumed in this study that most capital goods
that are used in production of goods and services in developing countries are imported
from industrialized developed countries. A recent study, Caselli and Feyrer (2007), has
found that the marginal product of capital across developed and developing countries is
remarkably similar. Using this result, the authors draw the implication that the flow of
capital stock from rich to poor countries is not affected by international aid and credit
65
restrictions. 52 In Pakistan, the share of capital goods in annual imports has varied only
slightly, mostly within one standard deviation of the mean, since the 1970s (Table 3.1).53
Based on the findings of the study noted above, and because of the stability of the
share of imported capital goods in annual imports in Pakistan, it appears safe to assume
that the availability of capital stock in Pakistani industries has not been a significant
hurdle in industrial production and that the capital stock grew smoothly over the period 54.
simplifies to
where,
52
They attribute lower capital ratios in developing countries to lower availability of complementary factors
and lower efficiency, as well as to lower prices of output goods relative to capital.
53
Only during 2000-02 this share fell below one standard deviation probably due to the international
sanctions that were imposed on Pakistan soon after the 1997 nuclear explosion. These sanctions were
removed in 2002.
54
Zahid, Akbar and Jaffry (1992) find there is idle capital stock in large scale manufacturing sector of
Pakistan.
66
=
(8)
where,
The coefficient in Equation (8) captures the total effect of the growth of
capital stock and technical progress. Equation (8) is a particular form of Equation (3)
which results from the assumption of a Cobb-Douglas production function with a constant
The stochastic form of the basic model (8) is obtained by adding an error term, to
capture the influence of such random factors on employment as the influence of weather
on agriculture, international demand for goods and services, unexpected changes in raw
material prices, changes in political events, and so on. The equation for econometric
(9)
estimation of the model will be discussed in the next Chapter. The equation will be
55
We substitute the γ in equation (7) for capital stock because we assume that capital changes over time
with a proportional rate γ, so
= = t therefore,
=
67
estimated using aggregate data assuming the economy to be a collective producing unit
comprising several individual units or economic sectors. It will be estimated first using a
time series national data for the economy of Pakistan, and then using sectoral data for the
economy that will be organized in a pooled form.56 The model will also be modified to
control for certain data characteristics that may have additional influence on the
the model will be used to obtain a threshold level of GDP growth defined as the minimum
level of GDP growth needed to generate employment in the economy. Calculations of the
threshold level will be discussed in Chapter 4 where the augmented model is provided.
The issues relating to the estimation of the employment demand equation obtained
above can be divided into two sets. One set of these issues relates to the way the
employment demand equation is derived and its interpretation. The second set of issues
relates to the data set used for its estimation. While we discuss the first set of issues in
this section, the second set of issues will be discussed in the econometric estimation
chapters.
First, there is the issue of the two-way relationship between employment and
output. From the perspective of an economy-wide production function, the use of labour
and complementary factors of production generates national output or GDP. Hence, the
faster the growth of labour, ceteris paribus, the faster the growth rate of output. In an
56
Pooled data comprise several independent cross section data gathered at different points in time.
68
variables creates the problem of endogeneity. It is assumed in this study that employment
determination is a two-step procedure. In the first step, a firm determines its output level
based on market demand. In the second step, it chooses its combination of inputs that will
minimize the cost of producing that level of output. In this sense, the employment
Second, some economists have argued (Islam, 2004; Islam & Nazara, 2000) that
the notion of employment elasticity is ‗endogenous‘ to the policy regime. A given policy
regime could be more or less conducive to the growth of employment. For example,
existing policy initiatives could encourage labour-using technology or they could impart a
capital bias in production processes. The clear implication is that the elasticity of
well as by the economic policies. Disentangling the two effects can be a complex task. In
the case of Pakistan, economic policy has focused mostly on capital biased technology to
promote economic growth which in turn was expected to create employment. While data
limitations prevent an explicit incorporation of the changes in capital stock, the time trend
variable has been included to capture the effects of changes in capital stock and
Pakistan.58 It can be argued, following Islam and Nazara (2000) that the impact of GDP
57
Lunenberger (1995) uses the term ―conditional factor demand ―to describe an input demand function in
which the final output appears as one argument.
58
Islam and Nazara (2000) point out that this issue is specific to the Indonesian economy. We can also
apply this argument to Pakistan, because its economy‘s features are similar to Indonesia.
69
suggested that it appears to be true in Pakistan because of the so-called ‗unemployment as
those with adequate non-labour income can afford. During the 1997-98 Asian financial
services to the agricultural sector and the informal sector rather than remaining ‗openly
unemployed‘ (Islam and Nazara, 2000). This means that in an economic downturn the use
(Groshen and Potter, 2003). To account for possible difference in the response of
employment in different phases of business cycle, the present study will identify the slow
and fat growth periods of Pakistan‘s economy over a business cycle and capture their
effects by including a dummy variable in the employment demand model. This dummy
70
CHAPTER 4
production function. An econometric estimate of this model based on national data will
provide the elasticity of employment with respect to GDP. The magnitude of this
elasticity will indicate the strength of the relationship between employment and GDP,
which can be used to infer the extent to which GDP growth in Pakistan has induced
employment growth during the period between 1974 and 2008. This elasticity value can
also be used to obtain a ―threshold‖ level of the GDP growth rate, i.e., the minimum
growth rate in GDP required to generate any employment growth in the economy.
The present chapter first specifies the employment demand equation in a form that
will be estimated econometrically. This is done in Section 4.1. Section 4.2 defines the
variables included in the model and also describes the sources of data used for each
variable. Econometric issues related to the employment demand estimation are discussed
in Section 4.3. Section 4.4 discusses the econometric estimates of the employment
demand equation and also uses the estimated elasticity of employment demand with
respect to GDP to calculate the threshold level of GDP growth rate with which the annual
real GDP growth rates in Pakistan that were experienced over the period 1974 - 2008 are
compared. Section 4.5 extends this analysis by estimating the elasticity of employment
demand with respect to output observed during fast growth periods and using the same to
calculate the threshold levels of GDP growth rates for the two fast growth periods
4.6.
71
4.1 The Employment Demand Equation:
The basic employment demand equation was derived in the previous chapter,
β (9)
the labour input (Z1t). In this study, Z1t is defined to be a product of the number of
employed workers at period t and the hours worked by these workers in that period. This
definition of labour input is a more complete definition of labour service in the sense that
it incorporates the effect of varying hours demanded per worker by the firm.
Mathematically,
Where Ht is the hours worked per worker in period t and E t is the number of workers
employed in that period. To achieve any particular level of Z1t, the firm can adjust Ht and
Et. With the above definition of Z1t, the employment demand equation can now be re-
written as follows:
β β
β β
Therefore,
β β (11)
72
Our derivation of the above equation suggests that, in its econometric estimation,
the coefficient of variable should be restricted to unity. However, in this study the
equation will be estimated without any restriction on the coefficient of this variable to
control for differential preferences of employers for full-time and part-time employees
who work different hours during a week. Hence, the coefficient of the variable
measures the elasticity of employment demand with respect to the weekly hours worked
in the economy. A statistical test of significance will reveal if the coefficient of the
variable differs from unity. A value higher than unity would imply that to achieve a
certain growth in total hours worked by employees, firms rely heavily on employing more
workers. A lower than unity value would imply the opposite. The elasticity value can
also be negative, in which case workers and hours will be viewed as substitutes indicating
that there is a tradeoff between employment and hours of work. When one reviews the
trend in the relationship between employment and hours worked in Pakistan over time, an
Figure 4.1: Growth Rates of Employment and Total Number of Hours Worked Per
Week (1973-74 to 2007-08)
10
8
6
4
2
Growth rate (%)
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
1982
1984
1998
2000
1974
1976
1978
1980
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
2002
2004
2006
2008
73
Hours worked are often manipulated in developed countries to affect the level of
employment in the labour force. Caballero and Hammour (1998) found that between 1960
and late 1970s the average weekly hours per worker in France fell gradually from around
45 to 40 and further down to 39 hours per worker since 1981. The official purpose of this
country. Moreover, a fourth week of paid vacation was introduced in 1969 and a fifth
week in 1981. The government elected in 1981 was committed to implementing the 35-
hour a week initiative by 1985. A further reduction in the work week to 32 hours was
pursued in 1986 but this reduction was not then successful in expanding employment.
Since the early 1990s, the French government encouraged reduced hours with reduced
pay through agreements between employers and unions. Similar government policies
have been implemented in Belgium. In Germany, the legal workweek has been shortened
through union agreements. Such proposals were also under discussion in Italy. Erbas and
Sayers (2001) also show that, during the period 1970-2000, it may have been possible to
increase employment in the G-7 countries with a policy that combined a reduction in the
workweek with an employment subsidy. Werner (1998) has discussed that in the US,
employment and working hours grew in the same direction but not so in Europe.
developing countries is lacking. Therefore, inclusion of the hours worked variable in the
estimation of employment demand model for Pakistan will provide useful information
developing country, is its population growth. This is especially true in case of developing
countries where the phenomenon of high population growth rates is well known. A rapid
74
growth in population results in a rapidly growing young population entering the labour
force. As a result, levels of both employment and unemployment can change in the same
and Collard (2002), a more rapidly expanding supply of labour can lead to more
a developing country, it is important to disentangle the effect of GDP from the effect of
population growth on employment. Others, such as Pasinetti (1981), have also used
Based on the above discussion, the final employment demand equation which will
β β β (12)
The period of analysis in this study spans over the years 1974 to 2008. Data on
real GDP at constant factor costs (base year-2000) are obtained from the International
Monetary Fund (IMF, 2009). Data on employed labour force are obtained from various
issues of the Pakistan Economic Survey and are based on the Labour Force Survey (LFS)
of Pakistan which is conducted annually by the Federal Bureau of Statistics. 59 All paid
and self-employed individuals aged 10 years and above who worked at least one hour
59
Pakistan Economic Survey is published annually by the Government of Pakistan, Ministry of Finance.
60
Paid employment includes persons with a job, at work and not at work. According to Pakistan Labour
Force Survey at work are those "who during the reference week performed some work for wage or salary,
in cash or in kind and persons with a job. Not at work are those who having already worked in their present
75
Population data are also obtained from the same sources as above and are
estimates of population based on population censuses that were conducted in 1972, 1981,
and 1998.61
The hours worked per week data are obtained from Federal Bureau of Statistics
(1998) and are also based on the LFS. These data are frequency distributions reported for
the reference week of LFS in intervals of weeks worked variable. Averages are calculated
using these frequency distributions. As the LFS was not conducted in years 1976-78,
1980-82, 1984, 1989-90, 1996, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2005, there are some missing values.
These values have been interpolated using a linear interpolation method which is inbuilt
Majid (2000) notes that an important weakness of any analysis on labour markets
in Pakistan is the internal limitation of the data produced on population, labour force and
employment. The 1998 population census was conducted after seventeen years. Although
LFS is conducted annually, population coverage of the LFS is known to be low, with the
result that both participation and employment rates based on LFS are underestimated. 63
job and temporarily not at work during the reference week due to some reasons, such as absence, leave,
illness and strike etc, but had a formal attachment to their jobs".
60
Self-employment includes four types of persons: "(1) persons at work, (2) persons not at work but ―with
an enterprise‖ at work, (3) persons who during the reference week performed some work for profit or
family gain, in cash or in kind, and (4) persons with a enterprise, a farm or a service undertaking who were
temporarily not at work during the reference week due to some specific reasons, such as absence, leave,
illness, and strike etc". According to the Right to Education Project, the minimum working age in Pakistan
is 14 years (http://www.right-to-education.org ). However, the Labour Survey in Pakistan collects data on
individuals aged 10 years and above.
61
The 1998 census was the latest available population census conducted in Pakistan.
62
The Linear interpolation method simply computes a linear approximation based on the previous non-
missing value and the next non-missing value. The interpolated value is then calculated as:
63
Since 2007, LFS is being conducted on a quarterly basis.
76
Data quality and coverage in developing countries are known to be low and
Pakistan is no exception. It is important that in the absence of regular and better quality
data, results of the present study be interpreted with care and be considered as indicative
of a general trend. The best alternative to the published data used in this study are survey-
based data for whose collection more time and resources are required.
Table 4.1 provides econometric estimates of employment demand model using the
ordinary least squares (OLS) technique. Time series data for the period 1974 - 2008 are
Before interpreting the results of Table 4.1, it is important to discuss some of the
econometric issues relating to the above estimation, their implications, and remedy. 64
64
A study by Ramsey (1969) and Ramsey & Alexander (1984) showed that the Regression Specification
Error Test (RESET) could detect specification error in an equation which was considered a priori to be mis-
specified. According to this test, if the F test statistics is greater than the F critical value, we reject the null
hypothesis that there is no specification error in the model. A Ramsey RESET was applied on the estimated
model. F-stat was found to be 3.10 which is lower than h critical F-value of 4.18. Hence the hypothesis of
no specification error cannot be rejected and the conclusion is reached that the model is correctly specified.
77
4.3.1. Econometric Issues Relating to the Time Series Estimation of Employment Demand
Model:
There are three major issues relating to estimations based on time series data
which can affect the reliability of econometric estimates. These issues include: non-
Each of the above issues, their implications and related tests are discussed below.
Stationarity of Data
"A stochastic process is said to be stationary if its mean and variance are constant
over time and the value of covariance between two time periods depends only on the
distance or lag between the two time periods and not on the actual time at which the
Previous time series studies that have calculated employment elasticity in Pakistan
using descriptive analysis did not test for data stationarity (for example, Baqai, 1979;
Kemal, 1990 and Chaudhary & Hamid, 1998). In contrast, the present study has used the
Augmented Dickey Fuller (1979) test (ADF test) to test for stationarity of data series
used. The results are presented in Table 4.2. The null hypothesis being tested is that the
78
Table 4.2: Unit Root Test Results (ADF Test)
Notes: The null hypothesis is that the data have a unit root. *, **, *** means level of
significance at (1, 5, 10 %). E = employment, X = GDP, POP = population, H = hours
worked per week and Ln = natural Logarithm.
As seen in the above results, the variables are stationary at different orders. First
differences of the employment, GDP and hours worked variables appear stationary
indicating that these variables are integrated of order one, i.e., I(1). On the other hand, the
test results show mixed results on the population variable depending on whether the data
are assumed to have intercept and/or trend. Moreover, first differencing does not make
To address the concern that the non-stationarity of the data may result in spurious
or meaningless regression outcomes, a residual based co-integration test was also applied.
Its results using the residual based ADF test are provided in Tables 4.3. If residuals of the
employment demand model are found to be stationary, the series are co-integrated and
79
Table 4.3: Residuals Based Co-Integration Test Results (ADF)
t-Statistic Prob.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -5.783743 0.0000
Test critical values:* 1% level -5.6532
5% level -4.8601
10% level -4.4749
* The Null hypothesis indicates non-co-integration. The critical values are calculated by
using the software provided by James G. MacKinnon
http://www.econ.queensu.ca/faculty/mackinnon/jbes/. See MacKinnon (1994).
The above co-integration test result shows that residuals of the estimated
regression, i.e., the employment demand model, are stationary in their levels. Hence, the
series are co-integrated so that a linear combination of the series is converging in the
long-run, indicating that econometric results of the employment demand model are not
spurious.
Autocorrelation
Autocorrelation occurs if the error terms of the OLS regression based on the time
series data are successively correlated. Presence of autocorrelation causes the OLS
Watson (DW, 1950) test statistic. As was shown in Table 4.1, the calculated DW statistic
of 1.85 is close to the critical value of 2, implying no auto-correlation in the error terms.
Multicollinearity
The issue of multicollinearity arises when the independent variables are correlated
with each other. In the presence of high multicollinearity, the variances of the OLS
80
coefficients are high which can result in lower t-values, thereby leading one to wrongly
The following correlation matrix (Table 4.4) shows some sign of multicollinearity
in the model. 65 However, all variables in the regression model are found to be statistically
significant at 0.05 level of significance as revealed by the t values that exceed the critical
value of 2 (Table 4.1). Hence, following Kennedy (1998), multicollinearity is not viewed
as affecting the interpretation of regression results. 66 Kennedy (1998) has also noted that
demand model reported in Table 4.1. Since the model is run in log-linear form, each
65
Multicollinearity was also confirmed when the R-square of a regression of one independent variable on
others was found to be higher than the R-square of the original regression of employment demand.
66
Multicollinearity does not depend on any theoretical relationship among any of the regressors; rather it
depends on the approximate linear relationship in the data set at hand.
81
except ―t‖. All t-values indicate that the elasticity of employment with respect to each
independent variable included in the model is statistically significant at 0.05 percent level
of significance.
The main variable of interest is the GDP variable. It has the expected positive
sign. Hence, GDP growth causes employment growth. However, the magnitude of the
with respect to GDP. Over the period 1974 - 2008, a one percentage change in annual
GDP growth caused employment to increase by only about 0.26 percentage on average,
keeping the effect of other variables in the model constant. Hence, economic growth in
Pakistan appears to be largely focused on projects that did not generate employment over
the period.
The negative value of the elasticity of employment with respect to hours worked
per week reflects a trade-off between employment of workers and hours of work in the
labour markets of Pakistan. The absolute value of this elasticity is 1.404 and the t- test
indicates that this value exceeds unity in the true model, thereby indicating a significant
trade-off between employment and hours worked, keeping the effects of other variables in
The population variable also has a negative and statistically significant coefficient.
A Wald test of statistical significance of the difference between two coefficients revealed
that the difference between the coefficients of population and GDP variables is
67
The calculated t-value for this test obtained as (β -1) / s.e (β ) was equal to -9.212 which in absolute
terms exceeds the critical t-value of 2 at 0.05 level of significance.
82
statistically significantly different from zero. 68 Hence, the two coefficients differ from
each other in the true model. The magnitude of the population variable is less than unity,
at -0.617. This result implies that the population variable has its own effect on
employment rather than through its effect on GDP per capita in Pakistan. The negative
and Beaudry and Collard (2002) that a more rapidly expanding labour supply can lead to
lower population growth and expansion of post-secondary education in recent years, and
continued availability of capital are all sources of productivity growth that may have
these causes is beyond the scope of this study and can be pursued in future research.
Based on the theoretical discussion of Chapter 3, the time trend variable captures
the effect of changes in the capital stock and of technical progress. Its estimated positive
sign and low magnitude probably suggest a low complementarity between capital and
labour and a lack of employment intensity of technical progress in Pakistan, keeping the
A high value of the constant term indicates a large effect of all excluded
variables on the employment demand over the period. These variables could be the
domestic political and economic conditions, changing economic policies, worker training,
etc. When more data are available, a future study can investigate the effects of these
variables.
68
The value of F-statistic in the Wald test was found to be 12.38 with degrees of freedom 1 and 30 in the
numerator and denominator, respectively. The critical value of F-statistics at 0.05 percent level of
significance is 4.17.
83
4.4.1 A Comparison of the Threshold Level of GDP Growth Rate with Actual Annual
employment demand with respect to GDP as 0.26. Thus, over the period 1974 - 2008 a
GDP growth rate of one percent was responsible for only a 0.26 percent growth rate in
employment. One can use this elasticity estimate to calculate a ―threshold‖ rate of GDP
growth, i.e., the minimum GDP growth rate required in a given year to achieve a positive
growth rate in employment during that year. The method of this calculation is discussed
as follows.
β β β (12)
Taking the first-order derivative of the above equation with respect to time, we
= + (13)
economy during year t. Similar to employment growth rate, annual growth rates in all
other variables are obtained by taking their respective time derivatives. Thus, is the
real GDP growth rate, is the growth of hours worked per week in an economy, while
is the growth rate of population. From equation (13), we can estimate the GDP
84
growth rate below which employment will be stagnant, ceterus paribus. This growth rate
will be called the threshold level of GDP growth rate, Kwiatkowski et al (2004) also
based his calculation on the same method to calculate threshold level of GDP growth for
48 countries of Western, Central, and Eastern Europe and some selected countries which
] (14)
Another simple calculation of threshold GDP has been suggested by Islam (2004).
The threshold GDP growth is obtained as a ratio of labour force growth and employment
elasticity. This ratio provides the GDP growth desired in order to absorb its surplus
labour.70
Based on the method discussed above, the threshold level of GDP growth rate for
Pakistan, calculated at the average values of annual growth rates in hours worked and
69
Their period of analysis was 1990-2000.
70
For example, if labour force growth is 2 per cent per annum and the employment elasticity is 0.5, a GDP
growth rate of 4 per cent would be required merely to absorb annual increments in the labour force. Thus, in
order to have an employment growth that is enough to absorb the economy‘s backlog of the unemployed
and surplus labour, the required GDP growth would have to be higher than four percent.
85
population over the estimation period using the formula provided above, is found to be
6.03 percent. In other words, Pakistan‘s economy must grow at least by 6.03 percent in a
given year to generate any employment in that year, while keeping the effects of growth
around this value indicates that the range of this threshold is 5.75 to 6.32. The average
annual growth rate of GDP in Pakistan during the entire period of analysis, i.e., 1974 -
2008 was around 5.28 percent which lies outside the 99 percent confidence interval
constructed for the threshold level. Hence, it may be concluded that the average annual
growth rate in Pakistan‘s economy has fallen below the level necessary to generate jobs in
the economy.
Another more direct way of calculating the threshold level of GDP growth rate, as
noted above is to consider the rate required to absorb the surplus labour in the economy
which its growing labour force generates. 71 With the current annual labour force growth
rate of 2.8 percent in Pakistan and an elasticity of employment demand value of 0.26 with
respect to GDP, as computed in this study, the GDP must grow at 11 percent to absorb all
new labour. This method of calculating threshold GDP also leads to the same conclusion:
the annual growth rate of Pakistan‘s economy has not been sufficient to generate
employment.
The value of threshold growth rate in Pakistan‘s GDP is close to that reported for
Pakistan by Amjad (2007) who found the same to be in the range of 7 to 8 percent. In
addition, the 2008 issue of Pakistan Economic Survey, published by the Government of
Pakistan, also reported the threshold level of GDP growth rate to be in the range of 6 to 8
percent. During the period 1974 - 2008, the annual employment growth rate in the
71
Islam(2004)
86
country has been 2.65 percent while the labour force growth has been 2.8 percent. With a
13 percent unemployment growth rate, the employment in the economy must grow at a
rate higher than 2.8 percent if all new entrants into the labour force are to be absorbed.
threshold levels of GDP growth rates for Poland to be 4.38 percent, Sweden 2.58 percent,
and Finland 2.61 percent. Most of the other European countries had threshold levels
between 1 and 2 percent (Wolnicki et al, 2006). Hence, the rate calculated for Pakistan
4.5 Employment and Economic Growth Relationship during Periods of Slow and
Fast Economic Growth:
The analysis conducted so far in the present study has shown a weak relationship
between GDP growth and employment growth in Pakistan. It has also shown that on
average, the annual GDP growth was slower than that required for employment
generation.
economic growth can vary during periods of fast and slow economic growth. One would
economic growth, when more demand is created in the economy and businesses are
expanding, than when economic growth is slow. The empirical analysis carried out in this
Chapter can be extended to study the employment generation during periods of fast
87
To proceed with the analysis, the trend growth in GDP is first filtered out to
isolate cyclical movements. Irregular shocks are then removed from these movements and
periods of fast and slow economic growth identified as periods of rising and falling
growth in real GDP, respectively, which reach the peak and trough in the interim. Many
methods of detrending an economic time series and identifying the turning points of its
cyclical component have been suggested in literature. In the present study, the most
common method, the Hodrick- Prescott (1997) method is used. 72 The method is described
Source: Based on author‘s own calculations using real GDP data at 1999-2000 prices.
72
For details of HP methodology, please see Appendix II.
73
Arby (2001) also used the same method to identify fast and slow economic growth periods during 1949-
2001. He used real GDP data at prices of 1980-81.The present study has used these data until 2008 at prices
of 1999-2000.
74
For the purpose of this study, a period of slow economic growth is considered to be the one of declining
de-trended annual value of GDP, free of irregular shocks while a period of fast growth is the opposite,
Some economists, for example Arby (2001), have called these two periods as periods of recession and
recovery which is contrary to their conventional definitions which are based on actual real GDP.
88
variable that identifies the periods of fast economic growth in Pakistan during the period
The dummy variable has been interacted with the GDP variable. The modified
β β β β (15)
Where,
employment with respect to output during the period of fast economic growth. OLS
89
Table 4.6 results show that all variables, except for the GDP coefficient, are
statistically significant and have the same signs as in the previous estimation. The GDP
coefficient now provides the elasticity of employment with respect to output during the
period of slow economic growth. The statistical insignificance of this elasticity value
economic growth. . However, the effect is statistical significant but only slightly higher
during the period of fast growth. The employment elasticity rises to only about 0.117
when the economy is expanding rapidly, which is even lower than the average value
4.5.2 Threshold Level of GDP Growth in the Fast Economic Growth Period:
The modified employment demand model results during the period of fast
From the above equation, the threshold level of annual GDP growth, i.e., the one
below which employment growth is zero, is estimated to be 7.91 percent. In other words,
employment will be generated during the period of fast economic growth if the economy
grows at a rate faster than 7.91 percent which is higher than the value found for the
overall period. The 99 percent confidence interval for this threshold is found to be 7.66 to
8.23 percent. The actual rates of GDP growth during the two fast growth periods (1979-
90, and 2002-2007) were 6.5 percent and 6.4 percent, respectively, which were below the
threshold values found for fast growth period 75. Hence, it may be concluded that over the
75
The average growth rates for the two periods are based on various issues of Pakistan Economic Survey.
90
period 1974 to 2008, the economic growth in Pakistan was jobless even during the period
4.6 Summary:
The analysis conducted in this chapter reveals that economic growth in Pakistan
5.75 to 6.32 percent growth rate in GDP is required to achieve any growth in
employment, but the GDP growth rate has generally been below this level. During fast
Results of this Chapter may be questioned on the basis that, similar to any
percent) is found in the informal sector on which no data are available to perform the
employment demand analysis. However, the sectoral component of the informal economy
also varies (Appendix III, Table A5.3). Hence, if the analysis is conducted for different
industrial sectors of the economy, the effect of informal sector on the results of present
91
CHAPTER 5
using national data. It was concluded that economic growth in Pakistan has been jobless
over the past four decades. The present Chapter extends the same analysis using separate
data on seven sectors of Pakistan‘s economy. As has been the case of many developing
and developed countries, Pakistan‘s economy has also experienced a structural shift in
towards the service sector (Table A5.3). During 2007-08, the service sector accounted for
most of the national output, with its GDP comprising about 53 percent of national GDP
(Table 5.1). It has been argued by some development economists (Gupta and Singh, 2005;
Karmakar, 2008; ) that due to low per capita incomes in developing countries, growth in
the service sector is likely to be mainly jobless. This is because of the high income
elasticity of demand for services. Hence, reliance of a growth policy on service sector to
generate employment so that the benefits of growth are shared by a large section of the
society will yield results that are unsustainable. The present study will also investigate the
estimation of employment elasticity for each sector of the economy can also suggest
which sector of the economy needs more focus if the overall (national) response of
helps in reducing the sensitivity of national results to the presence of informal economy.
76
A simple illustration may be useful in indicating the magnitude of employment elasticity (and output
growth) that may be desirable for an economy in order to quickly absorb its surplus labour. "With a labour
force growth of 2.5 per cent per annum and an overall employment elasticity of 0.4, a GDP growth of 6 per
cent would be required merely to absorb the annual additions (not including the already unemployed pool of
92
Table 5.1: Sectoral Shares of GDP and Employment in Pakistan (1950-2008, %)
As shown in Table 5.1, while manufacturing sector has experienced a rise in its
contribution towards GDP since 1960, its share in total employment dropped after rising
in 1970. The share of employment in electricity sector remained almost stagnant during
employment share is the result of a bias towards capital intensity of production in this
sector as has been noted in a recent study by Kalim (2009). State support for the use of
workers) to the labour force. On the other hand, if this hypothetical economy could achieve a high growth
of it‘s more labour intensive sectors (e.g., labour intensive manufacturers, construction, and services), the
overall employment elasticity could perhaps be raised (say, to 0.6) and a lower GDP growth (say, of six per
cent) could enable it to achieve the same objective" (viz., the absorption of surplus labour in modern
sectors) (Islam, 2004, p.5)
93
capital, as identified in Mahmood, Ghani and Muslehuddin (2007) appears to be the main
(Table 5.2). In some sectors (transport and trade &finance) total number of hours worked
per week is above 50 hours. On the other end, a considerable proportion of workers, about
28 percent worked 56 hours or more a week. About 14 percent of the employed persons
worked less, while 86 percent more, than ―35 hours a week‖- the duration representing
full time employment. Some broad averages by sectors are provided in Table 5.2.
Table 5.2: Sectoral Hours Worked Per Week in Pakistan (Averages, 1974 to -2008)
The next Section 5.1 presents an augmented employment demand equation that
will be estimated using sectoral data for the economy of Pakistan. The sectoral data are
94
pooled for the period 1974 to 2008 to estimate the employment demand equation. Section
5.2 discusses the econometric issues involved in the estimation of pooled cross section-
time series data. Stationarity results of Pakistani data are discussed in Section 5.3 while
econometric results are interpreted in Section 5.4 which also discusses the employment
elasticity in each sector based on which threshold growth of GDP is obtained for each
The final employment demand equation that was estimated in the previous
Chapter to obtain national elasticity of employment demand with respect to GDP is re-
written below:
In the present Chapter, sectoral time series data are obtained to estimate the above
Manufacturing, Construction, Electricity, Transport, Trade & Finance and All other
services.77 Data are organized in a pooled form giving rise to 245 observations. The
employment demand equation with sector dummy variables, Di, is written below:
77
The grouping of sectors was based on data availability. A detailed list of the composition of each sector is
provided in Appendix III, Table A5.1.
95
where i represents 6 of the sectors listed above, excluding agriculture which is
considered as the base. In the above equation, the dummy variable (Di) takes on a value
of 1 for sector i and zero otherwise. The dummy variable is interacted with the GDP and
hours worked variables. This interaction allows a direct test of significance of the
differential impact of each variable on employment demand in relation to the base, or the
seventh, sector. Agriculture is used as the base sector. Although over time, employment
has shifted in Pakistan away from the agriculture sector, it still remains the major
employer, with about half of the employed labour force working there.
Pooled data consist of a time series for each cross-sectional unit in the data. In the
econometric analysis of present Chapter, data are pooled for seven sectors of the economy
78
for the period 1974-2008. In the analysis of pooled data issues of data stationarity and
autocorrelation arise due to the time series component of data and the issue of
different tests such as, graphical, correllogram and unit root tests of stationarity. Different
tests of unit roots have been proposed in recent econometric literature, for example,
Levin, Lin and Chu (2002); Im, Pesaran and Shin (IPS, 1997); Breitung (2000); Fisher
type tests using ADF and PP tests (Maddala and Wu, 1999, Choi, 2001, and Hadri,
78
Gujrati (2006) provides good discussion of econometric issues arising in estimations based on pooled
data.
96
2000).79 In these six tests, some provide a common root, such as the Levin, Lin and Chu
test; and Breitung and Hadri test. 80 Others provide an individual root, such as, Im,
Pesaran and Shin (1997) test also called the IPS test; and Fisher type tests using ADF and
PP tests (Maddala, 1999 and Choi, 2001).81 For the purpose of this study, the IPS test is
more valid, because it tests for the overall stationarity of data as well as for the
stationarity of each cross section series. A detailed discussion on IPS can be found in
Consistent (HAC) standard errors method corrects for the wrong standard errors and t
82
values obtained in the presence of heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation. Given the
large sample size in this study, exceeding 50 observations, the HAC estimation by
5.3 Results of the Unit Root Test for Stationarity of Pooled Data:
Results of the IPS test for the stationarity of variables used in the employment
79
For a detail discussion on Unit root tests see Wooldridge (2002) and Baltagi (2008).
80
Common root indicates that tests are estimated assuming a common autoregressive (AR) structure for all
of the series in a pooled.
81
Individual root is used for tests which allow for different autoregressive (AR) coefficients in each series
of the pooled.
82
Newey and West (1987)
97
Table 5.3: Unit Root Test for Employment, GDP and Total Number of Hours
Worked Per Week
Employment
Im, Pesaran and
Level 1st difference
Shin (IPS)
Intercept Intercept &Trend Intercept Intercept &Trend
Cross sections Statistics Prob Statistics Prob Statistics Prob Statistics Prob
Agriculture 0.3833 0.9789 -3.1968*** 0.1030 -4.5872* 0.0009 -4.5637* 0.0051
Manufacturing -2.1173 0.2394 -3.1903*** 0.1033 -5.0762* 0.0002 -5.0205* 0.0016
Construction -1.1507 0.6835 -2.1451 0.5034 -6.8064* 0.0000 -6.7426* 0.0000
Electricity -6.9106* 0.0000 -4.4814* 0.0073 -5.6091* 0.0001 -5.6879* 0.0003
Transport 0.4925 0.9836 -5.7098* 0.0002 -4.5943* 0.0010 -4.5971* 0.0049
Trade &finance 0.4944 0.9838 -3.4772** 0.0591 -5.7551* 0.0000 -5.7196* 0.0003
All other services 0.4628 0.9820 -2.0066 0.5717 -6.5476* 0.0000 -6.0412* 0.0002
Overall Unit root 0.72681 0.7663 -4.07946* 0.0000 -11.5930* 0.0000 -10.1431* 0.0000
Im, Pesaran and GDP@
Shin (IPS) Level 1st difference
Intercept Intercept &Trend Intercept Intercept &Trend
Cross sections Statistics Prob Statistics Prob Statistics Prob Statistics Prob
Agriculture -0.5455 0.8697 -2.5308 0.3123 -7.1211* 0.0000 -7.0919* 0.0000
Manufacturing -0.3907 0.8992 -2.3809 0.3815 -2.859*** 0.0615 -2.7757 0.2158
Trade &finance
Construction -1.9597 0.3023 -2.5476 0.3049 -4.5025* 0.0011 -2.8312* 0.1995
Electricity -1.5420 0.5006 -0.1667 0.9913 -5.2016* 0.0002 -5.7358* 0.0002
Transport -1.8597 0.3465 -1.3559 0.8558 -5.2027* 0.0002 -5.5456* 0.0004
Trade &finance 0.0088 0.9530 -1.6634 0.7454 -4.8005* 0.0005 -4.7162* 0.0034
All other services -1.9993 0.2858 -2.4748 0.3377 -6.3837* 0.0000 -6.3551* 0.0000
Overall Unit root 0.98077 0.8366 0.82279 0.7947 -10.7682* 0.0000 -8.7656* 0.0000
(*, **, ***) means statistically significant at 1, 5, and 10 percent levels of significance, respectively.
Hence, the series are considered stationary. Employment and hours worked per week data are
stationary at I (0), while the GDP data are stationary at I (1). @GDP data are stationary at I(0)
according to Levin ,Lin and Chu test (Test statistics: -2.02349 & Probability value is 0.0215).
98
The IPS unit root test shows the employment data in all sectors have different
levels of stationarity. The data on employment are trend stationary in levels but in each
sector it is stationary in first difference and also stationary in first differences with an
intercept. GDP data are stationary in first differences in each sector and also in the overall
pooled data. The data on total number of hours worked per week are stationary in levels,
except in agriculture and trade &finance sectors. In the overall pooled data, this variable
is stationary in levels.
In summary, the IPS test results show that in pooled data, employment and
number of hours per week data are trend stationary in levels but also stationary in first
differences with an intercept and GDP data are stationary in first differences. To account
for the non-stationarity of GDP data, a residual based co-integration ADF test will be
performed after presenting econometric estimation results in the next Section. This test
The augmented employment demand equation (equation 16) was estimated with
pooled data. The Feasible Generalized Least Square (FGLS) method was used as it
corrects for heteroscedasticity, present due to cross section component of data, and any
contemporaneous correlation that may be present due to the time series component of the
data. For robust variance, the methodology of Beck and Katz (1995), which is also called
83
According to Gujarati (2006), panel data are a special type of pooled data, which are also called
longitudinal data or micro panel data, in which the same cross sectional unit, for example a family or a firm,
is surveyed over time. All tests applicable to panel data are also applicable to the general form of pooled
data.
99
Table 5.4 provides econometric results of employment demand equation using the
FGLS approach.
* The interaction variable in a sector is the product of its dummy variable with the corresponding
variable (GDP and hours worked per week). All variables, except for the time trend variable, are
entered in log form.
Before interpreting the econometric results, we address the concern that the non-
stationarity of the GDP data, as found above, may result in spurious or meaningless
regression outcomes. A residual based co- integration test was applied. Its results using
ADF are provided in Table 5.5. If residuals of the employment demand model are found
to be stationary, the series are co-integrated and results are not spurious.
100
Table 5.5: Residuals Based Co-Integration Test Results (ADF)
t-Statistic Prob.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -11.14020 0.0000
Test critical values:* 1% level -5.6532
5% level -4.8601
10% level -4.4749
* The Null hypothesis indicates non-co-integration. The critical values are calculated by
using the software provided by James G. MacKinnon
http://www.econ.queensu.ca/faculty/mackinnon/jbes/. See MacKinnon (1994)
The above co-integration test result shows that residuals of the estimated
regression, i.e., the employment demand model for sectoral analysis, are stationary in
their levels, i.e, I (0). Hence, a linear combination of the series is co-integrated indicating
that the econometric results of the employment demand model are meaningful and
We now turn to the interpretation of the econometric results which were reported
in Table 5.4.
The high value of R-square suggests that the regression model is a good fit.
Values of t-statistics suggest that all coefficients are statistically significantly different
from zero. This is true for most variables at 0.05 percent level of significance, but for the
GDP variable it is true at 0.10 percent level of significance. Since all variables are entered
in log form, except for the time trend variable, the coefficient of each variable is the
interaction variables measure by how much each sector‘s elasticity of employment with
respect to the corresponding variable differs from that in the base sector which, as before,
is the agriculture sector. All such coefficients are statistically significantly different from
101
zero indicating a statistically significant difference between the elasticity of employment
In each of the included sector, the elasticity of employment demand with respect
employment elasticity with respect to hours worked per week in each sector is compared
with that in agriculture. Since the absolute values of the negative coefficients of each
dummy interaction variable with hours are higher than the positive elasticity in
agriculture, they all have negative employment demand elasticities with respect to hours.
This result perhaps indicates that employers in those sectors substitute between the
The main elasticity of interest in this study is the elasticity of employment demand
with respect to GDP. Based on the results of Table 5.4, this elasticity value is computed
Table 5.6: Sector Wise Elasticities of Employment with respect to GDP in Pakistan
Sectors Elasticity
Agriculture -0.076
Mining &Manufacturing 0.029
Construction 0.488
Electricity 0.211
Transport 0.168
Trade &finance 0.208
All other services 0.296
Source: Based on Table 5.4. Each sector’s elasticity is obtained by adding the coefficient of its
dummy interaction variable with GDP to the coefficient of GDP variable.
102
As Table 5.6 results indicate, the agriculture sector has a negative elasticity of
employment demand with respect to GDP.84 A one percent output growth in agriculture
employment demand in agriculture sector of Pakistan drops when its output grows. A
possible reason for this result could be the presence of surplus labour in agriculture sector
which has resulted in a negative marginal product of labour in this sector. 85 Future
The elasticity of employment demand with respect to GDP is positive in all non-
found in the construction sector, while it is the least in the combined sector of mining and
manufacturing.
Given the above estimates of employment demand elasticities, it is clear that for
employment generation, public policy in Pakistan can rely upon economic growth in only
non-agriculture sectors of the economy. However, how much output growth is needed in
each sector before it begins to employ additional workers? To answer this question, one
must calculate the all important ―threshold‖ levels of GDP growth for each sector whose
calculation was discussed in Chapter 4. Results of this calculation for each non-
84
That means higher GDP will lead to lower agricultural employment. This, in essence, is in line with the
structural change theory proposed by Chenery and Syrquin (1975) which suggests that "increases in
agricultural GDP will have two counteracting influences on agricultural employment. On the one hand, the
expansion of the agricultural sector will boost employment in that sector, but on the other hand, the
expansion of the economy as a whole could also decrease agricultural employment as workers reallocate
their services to non-agricultural activities".
85
The surplus labour appears to have pushed agriculture production to the inefficient third stage of
production.
86
Kapsos (2005) has estimated elasticity of employment in agriculture for Nepal, Thailand and Indonesia
for the period 1991-2003 and has found that it has turned negative in recent years. Perugini and Signorelli
(2007) also reported similar finding for Italy, noting that manufacturing and agriculture sectors have low
employment elasticity (even negative in agriculture) as compared to services sector.
103
agricultural sector are provided in Table 5.7. The same Table also provides the actual
Table 5.7: Threshold and Average Annual GDP Growth Rates in Non-Agricultural
Sectors of Pakistan
*Calculated as the GDP growth rate below which employment growth will be zero.
Source: Calculations by the author based on results of Table 5.4. The method of calculation was
discussed in Chapter 4.
Results of Table 5.7 show that the combined sector of mining and manufacturing
in Pakistan had the highest level of threshold GDP growth rate during 1974 - 2008. GDP
must rise by about 19 percent in this sector to generate employment. The actual average
rate of growth of GDP in manufacturing has been about 6 percent during 1974 - 2008.
Hence, on average, GDP growth in the mining and manufacturing sector was not enough
to help generate employment growth.88 However, GDP growth rates in all other sectors
87
Complete sectoral average growth rates of employment and GDP can be found in Appendix Table
A5.4.
88
Mazumdar and Sarkar (2007) also found GDP growth rate to be jobless in Indian manufacturing.
104
Less than half a percentage of national employment in Pakistan is in the mining
sector. The large threshold growth rate in the combined sector of manufacturing and
sector which is viewed as a high capital intensity sector. One of the major factors
considered responsible for high capital intensity of manufacturing production is the factor
attracting domestic and foreign investment.89 This is considered as a root cause of low
Kemal (1981); Zahid, Akbar and Jaffry (1992) and Kalim (2009). The last two studies
also report excess capacity in the manufacturing sector which implies a potential for job
employed labour force in Pakistan and their share in national GDP is about 22 percent.90
Hence, these two sectors together occupy an important position in the economy of
Pakistan. The combined growth rate in these two sectors was rapid, 5.7 percent over the
period of analysis. In some years the growth in this sector was even in double digit. Any
growth in this part of the economy can have a direct as well as an indirect effect on
89
Some of these measures include low (0-5 percent) import duty on machinery, no withholding tax on
imported machinery, no sales tax on imported machinery, a debt to equity ratio of 70:30 on foreign and
80:20 on local machinery. These and further details have been provided by Shah and Ahmed (2003) and
also on the following web site: www.fauji.org.pk/webforms/InvestmentClimatePak.Mahmood, Ghani and
Muslehuddin (2007) maintain that while industrial and trade policy reforms in recent years have exposed
domestic enterprises to greater internal and external competition, most of these enterprises continue to seek
government support.
90
Anwar (2004) pointed out that "growth in large scale manufacturing sector is mainly due to the utilization
of excess capacity ranging from 30-40 percent created by large investments in the mid 1990s in thermal
power generation through independent power projects (IPPs), cement, sugar, automobile and consumer
electronics. Furthermore, employment elasticity of large scale manufacturing sector is very low (0.02)
relative to other sectors. Thus, this pattern of growth, together with stagnant investment, does not seem to
be pro-poor since it is not likely to generate sufficient employment to offset the large increases in labour
force over the years".
105
employment in other sectors. The direct effect can come from the additional demand for
supporting goods and services produced in other sectors. The indirect effect can come
from the additional demand for goods and services which results from additional income
that accompanies any combined employment generation in the mining and manufacturing
sectors. Manufacturing sector also has spillover effects on other sectors of the economy
The economy wide result (reported in Chapter 4) that the average annual GDP
growth rate in Pakistan has been jobless can be explained by the jobless growth in the
mining and manufacturing sectors combined. Future research should explore any
5.5 Summary:
Econometric analysis of sectoral data conducted in this Chapter reveals that output
growth in agriculture sector of Pakistan, the most dominant employer, cannot be viewed
as contributing towards more employment in the economy. This sector appears to have
absorbed so much labour that labour‘s marginal product in it has become negative. Any
the non-agricultural sectors, although the mining and manufacturing sectors (combined)
grew at a rapid rate, this rate was not enough to generate employment largely due to high
91
Another important way in which manufacturing benefits the whole economy is through its role in
international trade and in balance of payments. This is because of the fact that a large part of international
trade takes place in manufacturing products.
92
Kaldor (1967) point out that manufacturing sector is an engine of economic growth because of its
multiplier effects on other sectors.
106
capital intensity of production. This appears to be the main cause of the overall jobless
growth in Pakistan that was concluded in the previous Chapter. Output growth in all other
93
Mazumdar (2003) acknowledges the importance of employment generation in the manufacturing sector
in a developing country which also highlights the importance of a sectoral analysis undertaken in the
present study. He first stressed the centrality of manufacturing output growth for total economic growth in
developing countries, based on the ―Kaldor‘s law‖ of economic development. However, “if the elasticity of
employment with respect to output is low, the economy can end up with an enclave type of development in
which the impact of even a respectable rate of manufacturing growth has only a limited effect on the rest of
the economy” (p.564).
107
CHAPTER 6
overall weak sensitivity of employment growth to economic growth in Pakistan. Over the
period 1974 to 2008, a GDP growth rate of one percent contributed to only a 0.26 percent
growth rate in employment when national data were used. The national annual threshold
level of GDP growth rate was estimated to be 6.03 percent, i.e., for employment
generation in any given year, Pakistan‘s economy should have grown by at least 6.03
percent in that year. The average annual GDP growth rate in Pakistan during the entire
period of analysis was around 5.28 percent – lower than the estimated threshold GDP
growth rate of 6.03 percent. Hence, it may be concluded that the average annual growth
rate of Pakistan‘s economy has fallen below the level necessary for job creation. . This
result was found to be driven mainly by the mining and manufacturing sectors which had
the highest level of threshold GDP growth rate at 19 percent while experiencing only a 6
percent average annual growth rate during the 1974-2008 period. GDP growth rates in all
resulting as a byproduct of policy measures to encourage the use of capital, several other
important changes occurring in the economy may also be responsible for the slow
warrants a separate study. In the present Chapter, only a broad investigation is pursued.
108
Economics literature has identified several possible factors responsible for jobless
growth. These are discussed in Section 6.1. The impacts of these factors in case of
Pakistan are discussed broadly in Section 6.2 by using mostly descriptive tools of data
analysis. The impact of macroeconomic policies is analyzed in the same Section using an
Five major factors responsible for jobless growth can be identified from economics
The first four causes are broadly explored in this Chapter using available data. .
worker, rises when there are factors that suppress employment growth, for example
technological changes, while output is expanding (Francis and Ramey 2003; Gong and
Semmler 2006; Hemraj et .al 2006). Indeed, empirical research shows that strong labour
94
Tezcek (2007) analysis of the Turkish economy concludes that the Turkish economy faces the problem of
jobless growth due to three main reasons. One reason is Agriculture displacement (pre and post 1980‘s), the
second is Structural adjustment policies (1980-2000) and the third is productivity increase in the new
millenium. Hemraj et.al (2006) identified possible factors responsible for jobless growth in the US
economy. Rada (2008) and Rutkowski et.al, (2005) identified such factors for Central and Eastern European
countries.
109
underdevelopment (UN, 2008). If productivity rises faster than economic growth, the
problem of jobless growth can arise (Indiresan, 2002; Tezcek, 2007; Rada, 2008).
Structural change in the labour market, or the sectoral change, is said to occur in a
labour market when there are changes in the composition of aggregate demand for goods
and services, or when there are changes in the productivity of labour, that result in an
industrial shift in labour demand. When the labour market is undergoing structural
change, workers may lose jobs because their current skills are no longer in demand.
for this growth to be jobless. This possible explanation of jobless growth in the United
States was first suggested by Aghion and Howitt (1994) and then later empirically studied
by Rissman (1997), Groshen and Potter (2003) and Aaronson et.al (2004c).95
Monetary and fiscal policies can cause economic growth to be jobless if they
increase the interest rate. Interest rate is defined as the opportunity cost of capital which
can rise due to a monetary contraction, or due to a fiscal expansion that increases demand
for loan-able funds in financial markets. A rise in interest rate reduces private
fiscal policy, private firms would attempt to meet this increase by restructuring to
increase the productivity of existing labour and capital rather than hire new ones. These
firms could also withhold their new investment plans in the anticipation of a rise in future
tax burden that the government may impose in order to finance future interest payments. 96
95
Some studies have also examined the relationship between sectoral changes business cycles. These
studies including Lilien (1982), Abraham and Katz (1986), Campbell and Kuttne (1996), Davis (1987),
Loungani, Rush, and Tave (1990) decompose changes in labour productivity into a component due solely to
changes within plants and a component due to sectoral reallocation of labour across plants and analyze the
cyclical behavior of both components.
96
This outcome is predicted by the Ricardian equivalence rule as discussed by Barro (1989).
110
Expansion of international trade and greater economic integration of the world can
also cause economic growth in a country to be jobless. Since the 1990s, the world has
become more economically integrated because many countries have moved towards a
resources and of goods and services, there is an increased role of private sector and there
are lower barriers to trade in resources and in goods and services. As a result, there is now
trade barriers and flexible economic policies in many developing countries has also
caught the attention of many economists who argue outsourcing to be a major source of
jobless economic growth experienced by many developed countries since the 1990s. 97
Empirical research also suggests that the spread of new information technologies
employment practices. Firms can decide when to hire, taking into consideration the cost
associated with hiring too early or too late. More flexible employment practices would
thus delay hiring, allowing firms to see when everyone else is going to hire before
beginning their own hiring if they are uncertain about the strength of a recovery. This
97
Using the data on Ireland, Gorg and Hanley (2005) argue that countries adopt outsourcing when imports
fall short of exports. Nevertheless, outsourcing remains a major and significant driver of the wage
differential. Following Feenstra and Hanson‘s (1996,) work, similar evidence has been produced for a
number of European countries, e.g., Geishecker and Gfrg (2004) for Germany and Egger and Egger (2003)
for Austria. These economists discuss the issue of outsourcing in their study and point out that the
outsourcing is a cause of net employment decrease. (See,Egger, Pfaffermayr, & Weber (2003), Head and
Ries (2002) , Kletzer (2000), Deardoff (2001) , Jones & Kierkowski (2001), Kohler (2001), Arndt (1997),
and Krugman ( 1995)).
111
type of approach by firms can result in extended periods of jobless growth accompanying
separate study. In the present study, only a broad investigation of some of those factors
will be conducted to provide some policy directions and directions for future research.
The time series data on growth rates of labour productivity, employment and GDP
are presented in Figure 6.1 for the period 1965 to 2009. Labour productivity in this Figure
is measured as the ratio of GDP and employment where employment is measured as the
Figure 6.1: Pakistan Employment, GDP and Labour Productivity Growth Rates
(1974-2008)
14
12
10
8
Growth Rate
6
4
2
0
1974
1978
1987
1991
1995
2004
2008
1975
1976
1977
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1988
1989
1990
1992
1993
1994
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2005
2006
2007
-2
-4
-6 Year
Source: Pakistan Economic Survey and Labour Force Survey of Pakistan (various
issues).
112
As observed in Figure 6.1, during most of the periods of high GDP growth rates in
Pakistan, employment growth rate has been low. From 1970s until early 1990s, GDP
growth rate was remarkably high in some years, reaching above 6 percent, while
employment growth rate generally hovered around 2 percent in those years. However, in
1971 when the GDP growth rate fell close to zero, employment growth rate rose to
approximately 4 percent. In early 1990s, the employment growth rate became negative
while the GDP growth rate even exceeded 6 percent in one year. After the recession of
early 1990s, the employment rate did shoot up for three years, but has been below GDP
growth rate since then. As was seen in Table 1.1, in periods of high GDP growth rates,
the unemployment rates have also been high indicating the inability of GDP growth to
absorb new labor force entrants. During 1994-1996, the GDP growth rate increased
continuously while the employment growth rate continued to decrease, reaching almost
zero in 1996. Since 2000, employment and GDP have shown upward trends, but the
direction of relationship between them has not been consistent, with employment growth
rate exceeding GDP growth rate in 2007 but then dropping to under 1 percent. A
calculation of the correlation coefficient between the two data series resulted in a value of
-0.026 for the period. In sum, one can conclude a low and negative correlation between
GDP and employment growth rates over the entire 35 year period.
GDP growth rate equals the sum of changes in employment and labour
productivity growth rates (Kapsos, 2005). Hence, if GDP growth rate rises while
employment growth rate is falling, labour productivity growth rate should also rise and
vice versa. From Figure 6.1, it is also observed that the growth rates of GDP and labour
productivity followed identical paths in most of the period, while employment and GDP
growth rates went in opposite directions. During 1970s, the average annual labour
productivity growth rate was 1.73 percent while the average GDP growth rate was 4.84
113
percent - much lower than the average 6.87 percent growth rate of GDP experienced in
the preceding decade. During the 1980s, an average 4.47 percent growth rate of labour
productivity was accompanied by a 6.87 percent growth rate of GDP on average, which
was the highest ever recorded during a decade in Pakistan. However, in the 1990s, the
annual average annual productivity growth rate fell to 1.8 percent and exhibited large
fluctuations. Some of the years also saw negative growth rates in labour productivity. The
schemes introduced by the civilian governments of Peoples Party and Muslim League,
which caused employment to grow more rapidly. Lower productivity growth of 1990s
was also accompanied by a fall in the average annual GDP growth rate to 3.98 percent.
Finally, during the 2000-09 period, a 2.41 percent average annual growth rate of
productivity, which was a significant improvement over the previous decade, was
accompanied by a 5.03 percent average growth rate of GDP. During 1990-1993 and in the
year 2001, the average annual productivity growth rate was higher than the corresponding
GDP growth rate but employment growth rate was negative, implying that productivity
growth rate was achieved at the expense of employment reduction. The correlation
between GDP growth rate and productivity growth rate is found to be high, at around 0.78
during the entire period. When employment and productivity growth rates are compared
findings are consistent with the result that economic growth in Pakistan has been largely
jobless.
Further insight into the trade-off between productivity and employment growth
rates can be obtained by investigating the relationship between working hours per person
114
Table 6.1: Employment to Population Ratio and Total Number of Hours Worked
Per Week Per Person Employed in Pakistan
Table 6.1 data show an overall negative relationship between the employment to
population ratio and the hours per employed person per week. Hence, labour employment
and hours worked may be viewed as substitutes. This finding of our descriptive analysis
elasticity of hours valued at -1.404 and is also similar to Jorgenson and Vu (2005), who
reported that Pakistan‘s productivity and GDP growth rates declined during 1995-2003 as
compared to during 1989-1995. An earlier study by Mahmood and Siddiqui (2000) had
In summary, the descriptive analysis presented above shows that during the period
1974 to 2008, GDP and employment growth rates had a negative correlation, as did
employment and labour productivity growth rates, while GDP and labour productivity
growth rates had a positive correlation. Hence, increases in labour productivity may be
viewed as one source of jobless economic growth observed in the econometric analysis of
115
data for the period 1974 to 2008. At least in the short- and medium-term, a tradeoff is
The next section investigates structural change in the economy of Pakistan which
workers may have to retrain and update their skills. Hence, some unemployment may
occur in the economy, when workers are switching their skills, thereby weakening the
within each of the seven sectors listed in Chapter 5. Unfortunately, such disaggregated
data are not available. Hence, only some broad patterns of sectoral change are analyzed
Four measures of structural change in the economy are commonly used in the
literature. These measures have been proposed by Lilien (1982), Groshen and Potter
(2003), Rissman (1997), and Aaronson, Rissman and Sullivan (2004c) and are discussed
below. The measure proposed by Groshen and Potter (GP) is presented and discussed
first. Because of the similarities between the other three measures, they are discussed after
the GP measure.
116
Groshen and Potter’s (GP) Measure
experience slower than average employment growth during and after periods of slow
growth as well as those sectors that continue to experience faster than average
employment growth during and after slow economic growth can be considered as
undergoing structural change. The statistic suggested by these authors, called the GP
statistic, measures the percentage of such sectors in all sectors of the economy. In present
study, Pakistan‘s economy was divided into seven sectors (Chapter 5). Annual data are
used for each sector‘s employment, although it will be preferable to use monthly data but
First, employment growth rate in each sector is compared with the average
employment growth rate during different periods of economic growth as shown in Table
6.2.98 The signs of sectoral changes concluded in columns (11) and (12) are for the start
of slow and fast economic growth periods as they are for one year after growth rate peaks
and troughs. To account for any randomness in employment fluctuations that could affect
employment growth in these years, employment changes at the peak and trough of
economic growth are also compared and signs of sectoral change concluded in columns
(9) and (10). To help the intuition of the reader, an example has been provided in the
98
When monthly data are used, GP‘s measure is based on a recession period that starts one month after the
business cycle peak and an 11-month post-recession period that begins the month after the business cycle
trough (Groshen and Potter, 2003).
117
Table 6.2: Employment Growth Rates by Sectors in Peak and Trough of Economic Growth, and in the Years Following them.
1. The year after each peak and trough represents the start of decreasing and increasing economic growth periods, respectively.
2. Employment growth rates in peak and trough are also considered to cover for any possibility of randomness in the results based on slow and fast growth
periods. For details, see Aaronson, Rissman and Sullivan (2004c).
3. For agriculture, the positive effect in Column (11) is concluded as follows: Employment growth one year after peak (3.93) exceeded the average for all
sectors (2.29) and so did the employment growth one year after the trough (2.84 and 2.79). Hence, a positive effect of sectoral change on employment in
agriculture is concluded. No effect in Column (9) is concluded as follows: Employment growth in peak (3.86) exceeded the average growth for all
sectors (1.59), but employment growth in trough (1.92) was slower than the average (3.31). Hence, no sectoral change is concluded. The same method is
followed for other sectors.
118
As can be observed in Table 6.2, when one considers employment growth rates
from one year into slow economic growth to one year into fast economic growth (one
year after economic growth peaks and one year after it troughs as reported in columns 11
and 12), the effect of structural change in the economy appears somewhat stronger in the
1991-92 downturn of growth than it was in the 1969-70 downturn. During the 1969-70
downturn, a sectoral employment change was observed in four sectors while this was the
case in five sectors during the next downturn. Electricity, water and sanitary sectors did
not experience any structural shift, collectively. If one considers employment growth
rates over the half cycle (in peak and trough as reported in Columns 9 and 10), then the
structural shifts are found to be even less pronounced during 1969-70 as this occurred
only in three sectors. However, the electricity, water and sanitary sector does show
structural shift under this method. Only the transport and communication sector is found
to have experienced structural shifts under both methods during both downturns. All other
data for seven sectors of the economy yields some mixed results. However, it does appear
that structural changes were more pronounced at the time of 1991 downturn of economic
growth than in 1969-70 downturn. This result is largely due to significant shifts in
employment from agriculture towards services sector as recorded in the GP method. The
GP method also recorded significant changes in the transport sector. The ―Yellow Cab‖
scheme introduced in the mid-1990s by the regime of former Prime Minister Nawaz
Sharif, which made it easier for investors in the transport sector to import vehicles from
99
Groshen Potter (2003) also provided a descriptive statistic based on the correlations between the
difference of employment growth rate in each sector from the national average before and after recession.
This statistic will not be meaningful for present study due to small number of observations (only seven).
119
abroad, may have caused an expansion of this sector. When more disaggregated data are
available, one can perform an in-depth analysis of employment shifts within each of the
seven sectors to investigate if these shifts caused production in each sector to become
While one weakness of the above analysis is its use of aggregated data, another
weakness is that it is based on only four data points which may not capture full
fluctuations in employment during the period. Other measures such as those provided by
Lilien (1982), Rissman (1997) and Aaronson et.al (2004c) are improvements over the GP
measure. All three measures consider deviations of annual employment from a standard
level, but differ in the measurement of this deviation. These methods are discussed next.
Lilien’s Measure
Lilien (1982) holds that in the absence of structural change, employment in all
sectors will grow at the same rate. By contrast, when labour is being reallocated across
industries, expanding industries will grow faster than average and contracting industries
will grow slower. Lilien proposed a measure of structural change based on the standard
employment growth rate for all sectors, it may be viewed as the national average growth
120
rate in employment, and Sit is the i-th sector‘s share in total employment at time t. 100 If
all sectors grow at the same rate, Lilien‘s measure would be zero. The measure is always
positive and larger, the more an individual sector‘s employment growth rate exceeds the
Some economists, such as Abraham and Katz (1986) have criticized the Lilien
measure. They note that employment growth in some sectors, such as the commodity-
producing sectors, typically declines faster during economic downturns than employment
Consequently, sectoral change as measured by Lilien captures both the process of sectoral
change and the normal employment flows of the business cycle. The measure does not
Rissman (1997) tried to incorporate Abraham and Katz‘s criticism of the Lilien‘s
measure. The Rissman measure is based on a decomposition of the time series of sectoral
employment share growth rates into three components. The first component reflects the
long-term growth trend of employment in each sector. The second component, as noted
by Abraham and Katz (1986), is the predictable movement of employment into and out of
100
A sector‘s employment growth is related to its share of employment by the following mathematical
relationship: Δ Ln (Sit) = Δ Ln (E it / Et) = GE it – GEt.
121
certain industries over the business cycle. The third component is the unexpected
movement of workers across sectors or industries, i.e., changes across sectors that occur
for reasons distinct to business cycles or long-term secular reasons. These unexpected
factors that might shift inputs to more valuable uses. Employment changes like these are
likely to be the most upsetting to the labour market because they are unpredictable (unlike
long term trends) but are everlasting characteristics of the conditions (unlike cyclical
trends).
The term is sector i‘s acyclic employment share at time t–1. This
employment share is hypothetically what the sector‘s employment share would have been
if the national employment cycle were held constant at a value of zero, i.e., national
employment was stagnant. The acyclic employment share would depend only on the
sector‘s long-term trend and i.e., random, idiosyncratic shocks. The ‘s are estimates of
the idiosyncratic shocks for each sector obtained from the H.P filter estimation exercise,
short, this measure relies upon unanticipated variations in the composition of sectoral
employment growth. Long-term structural change affects the measure only through its
effect on the acyclical employment shares. Because of its construction, the measure
122
Aaronson, Rissman and Sullivan Measure
that is somewhat in between those proposed by Lilien and Rissman. Their measure is
given by:
employment growth that are unrelated to the normal shifts that occur as the result of
Figure 6.2 plots the above three measures of structural change obtained for
Annual dispersions in sectoral employment, using the above three measures, are
provided in Figure 6.2. Lilien‘s method shows that sectoral employment growth
deviations around the national growth have been positive in all years indicating that
Pakistan‘s economy has been experiencing structural changes in all years. However, the
measure did not show a systematic pattern until 2003. It dropped during the 1969-70
recession while it rose during the 1991 recession indicating more pronounced structural
123
Figure 6.2: Lilien, Rissman and Aaronson et.al Measures of Sectoral Variations in
Employment, Pakistan (1967-2008)
1.00
0.95
0.90
0.85
0.80
0.75
Employment Deviations
0.70
0.65
0.60
0.55
0.50
0.45
0.40
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
1969
1977
1985
1993
2001
1967
1971
1973
1975
1979
1981
1983
1987
1989
1991
1995
1997
1999
2003
2005
2007
Year
Aaronson et.al Rissman Lilien
Source: Based on own calculations presented in Appendix IV, Table A6. Lilien‘s
measure is based on sectoral employment growth deviation from the national employment
growth. Rissman‘s measure is based on shifts in the employment composition that are
unrelated to fluctuations in economic growth. Finally, the Aaronson et.al measure is
similar to that of Rissman, but it also includes long-term change in sector employment as
a sectoral shift.
The other two measures of employment dispersion are lower because of the way
they are measured. These two measures also indicate an overall structural change in the
economy, although the evidence is weak in recent years. Hence, it may be concluded that
structural changes took place during the two periods of upturns in Pakistan economy.
Finally, the data plotted in Figure 6.2 show that all three measures of structural shift are
124
A summary of the three measures of sectoral change is provided in Table 6.3
during periods of slow and fast economic growth. On average, more employment shifts
took place between sectors during the first ten years of slow growth as was also true for
the first ten years of fast growth. Similar pattern is observed during periods of fast
growth.
Table 6.3: Comparison of Three Measures of Sectoral Allocation in Slow and Fast
Economic Growth Periods
In summary, the different measures show that in general, the economy of Pakistan
underwent structural changes during periods of slow and fast economic growth. However,
there is an indication of stronger structural changes in the 1970s than in earlier periods.
When more disaggregated employment data are available, a future study may investigate
125
6.2.3 Monetary and Fiscal policies:
Monetary and fiscal policies can cause economic growth in a country to be jobless
if they result in an increase in the real interest rate or in labour costs. As discussed earlier
result in an increase in interest rates. An expansionary fiscal policy can also cause labour
costs to rise.
Akbari and Rankaduwa (2006) have provided a review of monetary and fiscal
policies in Pakistan over the period 1973 - 2005. Both policies have gone through several
periods of contraction and expansion. While international and domestic economic events
have influenced them, they have also largely been dependent on the type of political
regimes in place. More consistency was observed in fiscal and monetary policy variables
during the presence of military regimes, especially during the last military regime which
remained in power from 1999 to 2008, than during civilian regimes each of which lasted
for short periods, mostly 2 to 4 years. Over the period 1999-2005, the first six years of the
last military regime, fiscal policy became consistently contractionary when the
government‘s budget deficit reduced from about 7 percent of GDP to about 3 percent.
Monetary policy became expansionary during this period with a rise in money supply
growth rate from under 5 percent to 15 percent. This consistent pattern of monetary and
fiscal policies was also accompanied by several market reforms in the country which had
actually started in the early 1990s. These market reforms included enhanced role of
private sector and liberalization of interest rates, exchange rates and international trade.
The central bank also became more autonomous during this period.
reforms on the relationship between employment and GDP growth rates warrants a
126
separate study. For the purpose of the present study, a broad analysis will be conducted
of macroeconomic policies and trade liberalization. A similar model was estimated for
previous Chapters. The first two are money supply and fiscal budget balance to control
for the effects of monetary and fiscal policies on the GDP elasticity of employment
demand. A third variable, proportion of the sum of imports and exports in total GDP is
included to control for the foreign trade effect. Rationale and results of this variable will
be discussed in the next Section. Nominal values of all variables are converted into their
(16)
of persons, is log of GDP, is the log of total numbers of hours worked per
week, and ln is the log of total population of the country. The new variables are the
logs of money supply, ; budget deficit, ; the sum of imports and exports as a
any shift in employment after the introduction of market and macroeconomic policy
101
Data sources: Money Supply, Imports and Exports prices and Consumer Price Index data are taken from
International Financial Statistics 2009 and Budget deficit data are from Pakistan Economic Survey (Various
Issue).
127
reforms that took place in the 1990s. This variable is also interacted with the money
supply, fiscal budget balance, and international trade variables to test for statistical
significance of the change in their impacts on employment after 1990s. D t is given a value
of one for the post 1989 period and zero otherwise. 102 Results of econometric estimation
Before interpreting the econometric results, we again address the concern that the
results may be spurious due to non-stationarity of the data. The employment and GDP
series were found to be non-stationary in Chapter 4. The money supply and budget deficit
102
The model also follows the work of Boeri and Garibaldi (2004) on European New Members States and
European Monetary Union (EMU).
128
series, which are introduced in the present Chapter, are found to be stationary at I(1) but
the International Trade (Openness) series is stationary at level, i.e., it is I(0). As was done
in the previous chapters, a residual based co- integration ADF test was applied. 103 The
results are provided in Tables 6.5. If residuals of the employment demand model are
found to be stationary, the series are co-integrated and results are not spurious.
t-Statistic Prob.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -8.081097 0.0000
Test critical values:* 1% level -5.6532
5% level -4.8601
10% level -4.4749
* The Null hypothesis is non-co-integration. The critical values are calculated by using
the software provided by J. G. MacKinnon
http://www.econ.queensu.ca/faculty/mackinnon/jbes/. See MacKinnon (1994)
The above co-integration test result shows that residuals of the estimated
regression are stationary in their levels, i.e, I (0). Hence, a linear combination of the
model are meaningful and variables of the model are co-integrated in the long run.
The focus of the econometric analysis of this Section is on the effects of monetary
and fiscal budget balance variables. Results of Table 6.4 show that money supply and
international trade variables have statistically significant effects in the model while fiscal
budget deficit does not. The negative effect of money supply on employment is
strengthened since the 1990s, as shown by the t-value of the variable interacting the
103
As shown earlier, the employment and GDP series were stationary at I (1).
129
dummy variable and money supply, while the macroeconomic and market reforms of this
period did not affect the influence of fiscal budget balance or the international trade, as
the low t-value of the variable interacting the dummy variable and fiscal budget balance
indicates.
which is higher than what was observed in Chapter 4 (value = 0.26) when no controls for
the effects of macroeconomic policy variables and for international trade were introduced.
This means that the macroeconomic policies and international trade have weakened the
elasticity of employment demand imply that monetary policy may have weakened the
effect of GDP on employment thereby causing economic growth to be jobless over the
three decades under study. A future study can investigate the impacts of other monetary
variables such as, interest rate and inflation rate, on employment demand and on GDP
as trade barriers are removed. Countries expand the production of goods in which they
have comparative advantage while reducing the production of goods in which their
productivity growth and of structural shift in the economy both of which in turn can cause
130
the resulting economic growth to be jobless in a country.104 With a share of exports and
of this sector in employment generation. The econometric results reported in Table 6.4
employment. As discussed above, the fact that introduction of this variable, along with
the macroeconomic policy variables, increased the GDP elasticity of demand probably
also indicates that macroeconomic policies and the international trade sector of the
economy may have contributed towards joblessness in economic growth over the three
decades under study. To what extent the expansion of international trade in Pakistan has
led to economic and labour productivity growth and in structural shift, can be topics of
future studies. Such studies could also estimate the international trade multiplier of
employment.
comparative advantage in production of a good but may find it worthwhile to shift its
production to a developing country where labour cost is low. 105 This phenomenon, known
as ―outsourcing‖ of production, has become more prominent since 1990s with the
adoption of flexible economic policies in developing countries that allow for market
countries has often been blamed for employment decreases in developed countries. For
example, Gorg and Hanley (2005) found that Ireland lost much of its employment
104
When countries exploit their comparative advantage, some industries expand while others shrink.
105
This is especially true if investment in such production requires large amount of capital not available in
the developing country.
131
opportunities due to outsourcing, particularly with respect to financial services being
relocated to India. Kletzer (2000) found outsourcing led to job losses in the United States.
This caused President Obama to announce that his government may levy a tax on those
"To encourage ... businesses to stay within our borders, it is time to finally slash
the tax breaks for companies that ship our jobs overseas, and give those tax breaks to
companies that create jobs right here in the United States of America. Now, the House
has passed a jobs bill that includes some of these steps. As the first order of business this
year, I urge the Senate to do the same, and I know they will. They will. People are out of
work. They're hurting. They need our help. And I want a jobs bill on my desk without
delay" (Obama, 28 January 2010).106 In the United Kingdom, about 100,000 jobs would
2005). 107
India has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of outsourcing and could be the
worst hit by any move in developed countries to restrict outsourcing of jobs. American
companies alone employ about 1.7 million people in India (IANS, 25 February 2009; 4
May 2009).
106
―Obama raises red flag on outsourcing‖ By Agencies Posted On Thursday, January 28, 2010 at 04:21:24
PM. In his first state of Union Address, US President Barack Obama said that the worst of the economy
slump for the US is over.
http://www.mumbaimirror.com/article/4/2010012820100128162124545309dffe2/Obama-raises-red-flag-
on-outsourcing.html.
107
A recent Financial Times article report's findings from an independent consultant that a ―two-speed
Europe is emerging‖, with the UK and Ireland reporting the highest levels of worker replacement. Financial
Times, August 16, 2005, Europe set to move 1 million jobs abroad in a decade (World News). Other studies
that found evidence of job losses in Europe include: Egger & Egger (2003), Feenstra & Hanson (1996),
these economist discuss the issue of off-shoring in their studies and find out that off-shoring is a cause of
net decrease in employment.
132
Since the phenomenon of outsourcing mostly causes a shift of production from
could also increase the GDP elasticity of employment. Unfortunately, very little evidence
exists to date as to how much employment generation and economic growth has taken
2002, the Planning Commission of India reported that globalization offered little or no
scope for employment growth in the organized sector of India (Indiresen, 2002).
Data on outsourcing of production from other countries into Pakistan and the
resulting impact on employment and economic growth are lacking and hence it is not
possible to determine if this phenomenon has been the source of jobless growth or job-
intensive growth in the country. A future study may collect and systematically analyze
these data.
6.3 Summary:
besides the employment barrier created in manufacturing sector due to deliberate policy
creation of favorable prices of capital, were identified and interpreted. Based on a broad
analysis of the impact of each cause, it may be concluded that labour productivity growth,
structural shifts in the labour market, monetary policy and international trade may have
caused economic growth in Pakistan to be jobless over the period 1974 to 2008. There is
more evidence of an increase in structural change during 1968-1985. In the early 1990s,
―productivity is not everything but in the long run it is almost everything‖ so in the short
run productivity may be harmful for employment but in the long run it is very important
133
for economic development as there is a two-way causation between productivity and
growth.108 Monetary policy and international trade may have weakened the relationship
between employment and GDP by causing labour productivity to increase during this
period. Expansion of international trade could also have caused greater structural shifts.
The analysis presented in this Chapter is broad. An in-depth analysis can be pursued in
future using more detailed econometric modeling and disaggregated data for each sector.
108
Srinivasan (2005)
134
CHAPTER 7
The main purpose of this study was to investigate whether economic growth in Pakistan is
jobless or job intensive. An econometric analysis was conducted using national and
sectoral data for the period 1974 to 2008 and possible reasons for joblessness of economic
growth were explored. Section 7.1 provides a summary of the main conclusions in
relation to the research questions which were raised in the first Chapter. Section 7.2
summarizes the investigation of the causes of jobless growth in Pakistan. Some policy
implications of main findings are discussed in Section 7.3 while Section 7.4 discusses
some limitations of this study and provides some directions of future research.
rate in Pakistan over the past four decades showed that overall; the employment growth
has been slower than growth in GDP. There appears to be a negative relationship
between labour productivity and employment elasticity according to these general trends.
In the last decade, both of these variables have been volatile. 109 Jorgenson and Vu (2005)
reported that Pakistan‘s productivity and GDP growth rates both declined during 1995-
109
This correlation does not isolate the impact of employment growth on GDP growth from other factors
which was done in the employment demand model.
135
The rate of growth of employment declined in the 1990s, not due to a decline in
economic growth from 1980s, rather due to a decline in the rate of growth of the labour
force.
function of GDP. This model was estimated in log-linear form. The estimated
employment elasticity of demand with respect to GDP was less than unity, 0.26,
indicating a slow response of employment to economic growth over the period 1974-
2008. Other studies have found employment elasticity with respect to GDP to be in the
range of 0.11 to 0.41.110 The overall slow response of employment growth to GDP growth
indicates that economic growth in Pakistan may have been largely dependent on capital
intensive projects, which is largely the case in manufacturing sector. Arif, Kiani and
Sheikh‘s (2002) longitudinal study found that the labour absorptive capacity of Pakistan‘s
the threshold level of GDP growth for Pakistan below which employment is stagnant.
This was found to be above 6 percent, while the annual average growth rate has been
around 5 percent during the period of analysis indicating the jobless nature of economic
growth over the period 1973-2008. The threshold level of GDP growth is higher than the
110
Baqai (1979), Kemal (1990), Chaudhary & Hamid (1994 and 1998), Majid (2000), Hyder (1994),
Planning Commission of Pakistan (2004) and Aslam & Zulifqar (2008).
111
These authors also found that transition from unemployment to employment was slow and more so in
case of females.
136
3.5 to 4.7 rate found for Indonesia by Islam and Nazara (2000), and the 4.4 percent rate
When the effect of fast economic growth was introduced into the employment
demand model, it was found that employment elasticity dropped to only 0.11, giving an
even higher threshold level of GDP growth rate of 7.9 percent. The slower response of
employment during initial periods of fast growth indicates the possibility of a wait and
see approach of employers before they start re-hiring workers which has been found to be
true in other country studies (for example, Schreft et al ,2005). It could also be the result
The above results were based on the aggregate national data. Based on sectoral
analysis, a negative relationship was found in the agricultural sector between employment
and GDP growth rates. Because of a low income elasticity of demand in the agriculture
sector, future economic growth is not likely to cause significant growth in agriculture and
technical progress in this sector is also likely to be both land and labour saving. The low
the literature that development of agriculture sector can be a recipe for poverty reduction
(Majid, 2000). Kaldor (1968) has suggested that agriculture productivity can be increased
by switching labour from agriculture to other sectors. Arif, Nazli and Haq (2000) suggest
112
In the South-East Asian economies, employment growth rates of 2.5 to 4 per cent would normally
require a GNP growth rate of 5 to 8 per cent or more (Mazumdar & Basu 1997).
137
Evidence for jobless growth is found in the manufacturing sector, which is often
regarded as one of the main engines of economic growth.113 The threshold level of GDP
growth in this sector is the highest among all sectors. High capital intensity of production
appears to be the main reason for the lack of employment growth in this sector. The
overall employment trend in manufacturing has been negative. This can be explained by
the rise in trade and increase in productivity which has been the case in the manufacturing
(2004). Mahmood and Siddiqui (2000) also found an increase in productivity in the
The share of the construction sector in employment is 6.2 per cent but it
contributes only 2 per cent towards the GDP. Growth in this sector was found to be above
threshold level of GDP growth. Two other studies, Pakistan (2007) and Ahmad (2006),
report a shortage of 6.0 million houses in Pakistan and that the construction sector has the
sector are linked with construction related activities, in addition to the housing sub-sector.
According to the above two studies, even if only 0.5 million housing units are constructed
annually, at least 200,000 to 300,000 additional jobs will be created in the housing sector.
The electricity and gas distribution sector (combined) does not appear to have
much capacity to absorb labour due to its relatively small share in the overall economy,
although its growth is also employment intensive (above threshold level) according to the
113
Mining and manufacturing were considered as combined sector in this study. The share of mining in
employment is very small (less than one percent).
138
The share of the services sector in employment is 36 per cent. Econometric results
showed that the service sectors‘ average growth rate was above the threshold level of
GDP growth; hence, growth in this sector is also employment intensive rather than
jobless. Trade and finance sectors, combined, contribute the most towards GDP among
other services sectors, and they are also major employers of labour. The finance sector
has significantly increased its labour absorption (Pakistan, 2007) and according to Ahmad
(2006), this sector has little capacity to increase employment. Most activities in the trade
sector are undocumented and as such this sector is mostly out of the tax net. A proper
regulatory framework is needed for the wholesale and retail sectors which can absorb
employment intensive. This sector can also be a major employer in services sector, where
about three million jobs can be generated in urban as well as in rural areas of the country
(Ahmad, 2006). The share of all other industries in the services sector including
Ownership of Dwellings, Public Administration & Defense and Community, and S&P
Services, is 15 per cent and econometric results of the present study show that these
sectors‘ average growth rate was above the threshold level of GDP growth; hence, growth
Despite the impressive economic growth performance of services sector and its
114
Poverty Reduction Strategy of Pakistan
139
Karmakar, 2008). Income elasticity of demand for services, such as the trade finance
services which are currently major contributors to GDP growth, is high because of which
in Pakistan was jobless only in the manufacturing sector which has also experienced a
decline in employment over the past decade. One may attribute this finding to the faster
than average productivity growth in the manufacturing sector. Some authors, noted in the
present study have found that factor price distortions in favor of capital, caused by
deliberate policy measures aimed at increasing investment in this sector, have resulted in
high capital intensity of production which has become a barrier to employment creation in
this sector. However, at the same time, there may have been some spillover employment
being the likely reason for jobless growth in that sector, this study also investigated
broadly other potential factors behind jobless growth in Pakistan and found labour
jobless growth during that period. In the early 1990s, increases in labour productivity in
140
Pakistan and most of the developing countries also appear to have led to jobless growth.
Other studies that have also attributed jobless growth to productivity increases include
Kwiatkowski and Kwiatkowska (2006) and Wolnicki et.al (2006) for Poland and Tezcek
(2007) for Turkey. Finally, monetary and expansionary fiscal policies contributed
towards jobless growth in late 1990s and early 2000s. The negative effect of money
supply on employment became stronger since the 1990s while the macroeconomic and
market reforms of this period did not affect the influence of fiscal budget balance or the
by Rutkowski et.al (2005) for transition economies of Europe and by UNDP (2008) for
Asian countries.
one cannot deny the importance of aggregate demand in goods and services markets in
growth can be enhanced through increasing the GDP elasticity of employment which in
turn would reduce the threshold level of GDP growth. In this regard, as per the evidence
discussed in this study, priority should be given to the manufacturing sector which is
found to have significantly higher level of threshold GDP growth than other sectors. This
sector is likely to continue as a sustained source of future economic growth. It also has
spillover effects on other sectors, such as the services sector. In particular, growth in
transportation and storage sectors often relies on the growth in manufacturing sectors.
increasing demand for skilled workers in this sector is expected to slow down the
141
expansion of employment of low-skilled workers. Hence, the labour employment policy
should also emphasize on worker training. Since the manufacturing sector is widespread
in the country, provision of information regarding job availability and for greater worker
must also be given to the factor price distortions that currently favor the use of capital and
have become employment barrier in this sector by raising the relative price of labour.
processing, milk production, furniture industry, fibre industry, etc. should be encouraged
in rural areas. Special tax incentives in rural areas that help reduce the cost of labour will
also encourage expansion of manufacturing sector. This sector also has a large informal
(Gennari, 2004). Hence, any future sustainability of this sector as a potential employment
Economic growth in the services sector has been high and its labour absorption
has been strong. However, this sector has uncertain potential of continued employment
source since its growth may not be sustainable due to lower per capita income and high
income elasticity of demand for services. Despite its overall uncertain employment
potential, some of the service sub-sectors, such as the transport and storage, also have
forward linkages to the manufacturing sector. Hence, employment and growth policies
should also focus on improving employment conditions in these sectors. One important
sector within services is the Information Technology (IT) which can absorb skilled
labour. The use of information technology should be encouraged in all sectors in Pakistan
142
which will improve worker productivity and will also have a job-enhancing effect in the
services sector.
One other way of generating employment can be through the creation of special
incentives for employers to substitute working hours with employees. Over the four
decades for which data are analyzed in this study, working hours fell only in the
agriculture sector while they rose in all other sectors and the econometric analysis of this
study showed that labour and hours are substitutes in production. Employees in all non-
agriculture sectors work more hours than the national average, working more than 50
hours per week in transport and trade and finance sectors. To create incentives for
employers to use more workers, rather than require each worker to work more hours,
possibilities for any reduction in the regular number of working hours and for increasing
drift towards expansionary fiscal and restrictive monetary policies in Pakistan can have
negative employment effects through their effects on interest rates. Muslehuddin (2009)
can offset the negative employment effects. He also suggests a strong need for
coordination of fiscal and monetary policies so that they do not offset each other‘s effect.
Finally, as Arif, Kiani and Sheikh (2002) longitudinal study has shown, women
and introducing special employment schemes for women in rural and urban areas, the
unemployment issue for this large section of the society can be address.
143
7.4 Limitations of the Study and Some Directions for Future Research:
The present study is the first to investigate the job intensity of economic growth in
Pakistan. Most empirical studies have some limitations which should be taken into
consideration when interpreting the results and this study is no exception. Some of the
limitations of the present study are discussed below. Based on these limitations, some
First of all, in this study the focus has been on employment generation alone and
not on the quality of jobs that may be generated by economic growth. As noted by
Garibaldi and Mauro (2002), more jobs should not be viewed as necessarily good
if they are not accompanied by increased productivity which causes higher wages
unemployment. A study on the quality of jobs can be based on survey data that are
The labour market data used in this study are based on the Labour Force Survey
(LFS). The population coverage of the LFS is known to be low (varying from only
20,000 households in 1980s to about 32,000 households since the year 20,000 and
beyond).
Many authors have raised the issue of the quality of data available in developing
countries (Kenya, India, South Africa, etc) which can affect the reliability of the
results of an empirical study (Bowen et al, 1994; Deininger and Squire, 1996 and
1998; Baird et al, 2008). To the best of my knowledge, the data I have used in this
study are the best available data from government sources in Pakistan. Other
empirical studies that have pursued different topics have also made use of these
data. The results of present study are not expected to have been affected by the
144
quality of data in any different way from the results of other published studies that
have used time series data. Again, the best alternative to these data will be survey
data for which more time and monetary resources are required.
The analysis conducted in this study was only limited to the formal sector. A large
The sectoral composition of the informal economy has also changed in recent
(2004), the largely jobless growth has lowered labour standards and increased the
in South Asian countries. The annual Labour Force Survey of Pakistan began
collecting data on the informal sector since 1996. The latest data are for 2008-09,
but due to several interruptions in the survey, these data are available for only nine
years which are insufficient for conducting a meaningful analysis of the impact of
One important finding of the present study is that growth in the mining and
manufacturing sectors (combined) was jobless over the last four decades. The
mining sector is a small sector of the economy and hence the combined
Growth in the manufacturing sector can have spill over effect on other sectors of
the economy, especially the services sector and this effect has not been analyzed
in the present study. Given that the growth in service sector has been employment
intensive, it will be interesting to analyze how much of the service sector growth
145
important to analyze separate data on manufacturing sector, and within that sector,
indicates a large effect of all excluded variables on the employment demand over
the period of analysis. These variables could be the domestic political and
exclusion of these variables may have biased the employment elasticity estimated
in this study.
This is the first study in Pakistan which has investigated the possible causes of
jobless growth, but in a broad manner. An ad-hoc model was estimated to gauge
future using more detailed econometric modeling and disaggregated sectoral data.
Lastly, an analysis based on survey data for specific industries and regions will
shed some light on how individual industries have adapted to changing economic
growth over time. Special attention may also be paid to any differential effects of
Despite some limitations, the quantitative analysis conducted in this study has
provided an important input for policy debate on the role of economic growth in
creation. The study has also opened new pathways for future research on the job creating
146
Appendix I
The employment demand equation derived in the text can also be obtained by considering
the cost minimization problem faced by a firm. Here we consider two factors of
X=f( , )
demand equation, we have to minimize the cost function subject to output function.
Minimize C = +
Subject to =
where,
is labour, is capital.
The Lagrange function for the constrained minimization problem is written as follows:
L = + + λ (X –
147
Differentiate the above Lagrange function with respect to Z1, Z2 and λ. We get,
(1)
(2)
X– =0 (3)
Therefore,
(4)
= , =
X =
148
= [
= + θt lne +
β2 = θ
constant, i.e., do not vary, then the final demand for labour equation may be written
as follows:
= + + β2t (6)
The last equation (6) is a labour demand equation which is similar to equation (8)
derived in the text where represents the labour input in a given country and
represents the total gross domestic product (GDP) in a given year. is a slope
coefficient and represents employment elasticity with respect to output. is time trend
capturing the effect of technological changes. is the intercept term which includes the
149
factor wage ratios in the above derivation. The equation is applicable if the factor wage
ratios can be assumed fixed, which is possible in the context of Cobb-Douglas production
function if capital to labour ratio remains constant under the assumption of constant
returns to scale. However, the estimated equation in the text is based on a direct
derivation of employment demand from the production function where the constant term
and the time trend variables have different interpretations. No assumption regarding
150
Appendix II
in Pakistan
present study, their methodology is used to estimate the economic growth cycles. In
summary, this method assumes that annual series of real GDP is an aggregate of three
In symbolic form;
Y t = T t + Ct + I t
Where
Tt = Long-run trend
Ct = Cyclical movements
It is intended to isolate C t in the Y t series. This is done in two steps. In the first
step, Tt is removed from Yt. For this purpose, an HP filter applied using E-Views
Zt = Yt – Tt = Ct + It
In the second step, HP filter is used again to remove irregular shocks (It) from Zt, to give
Ct. The above method provides a de-trended log GDP series for Pakistan that is also
isolated from irregular shocks. Slow and fast GDP growth rate periods are identified as
151
the periods in which the detrended annual GDP values, free of irregular shocks, are
Figure A4: Periods of Slow and Fast Economic Growth in Pakistan Based on HP
Method:
0.015
Peak
0.01
0.005
-0.005
-0.01
Trough
-0.015
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
152
Appendix III
1. Agriculture
i. Major Crops
ii. Minor Crops
iii. Livestock
iv. Fishing
v. Forestry
2. Industry
2.1. Manufacturing
ii. Manufacturing
a) Large-Scale
b) Small-Scale
2.2. Construction
3. Services
3.1. Transport, Storage and Com.
i. Ownership of Dwellings
153
Table A5.2: Sectoral Distribution of Employment according to Rural and Urban
Areas, Pakistan (1974 - 2008)
Rural
Sectors
1974 1980 1985 1990 1995 2001 2005 2007 2008
Agriculture 72.08 68.76 70.94 63.79 61.94 59.01 53.45 60.94 61.72
Mining and Quarrying 0.13 0.44 0.29 0.14 0.11 0.07 0.15 0.14 0.25
Manufacturing 9.32 5.93 8.52 8.08 6.78 8.68 8.69 8.37 8.35
Construction 3.41 3.4 4.36 6.63 7.47 6.23 7.99 6.09 6.51
Electricity 0.23 0.39 0.23 0.54 0.56 0.56 0.5 0.42 0.43
Trade 5.9 5.31 6.22 8.11 9.56 9.5 12.09 9.63 10.55
Transport 2.94 2.54 3.07 3.68 3.81 4.82 5.98 4.42 4.3
Services 5.7 9.2 6.3 8.97 9.73 11.1 11.1 9.96 7.86
Activity not described 0.29 4.03 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.03
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Urban
Agriculture 6.2 7.39 6.83 7.63 5.8 5.19 6.32 6.21 5.77
Mining and Quarrying 0.19 0.28 0.17 0.17 0.14 0.07 0.02 0.07 0.37
Manufacturing 25.74 18.29 26 22.35 20.1 25.08 24.71 23.89 23.9
Construction 6.41 6.43 7.68 6.59 6.49 5.67 5.91 6.75 6.87
Electricity 1.23 1.18 1.32 1.55 1.53 1.33 1.25 1.36 1.3
Trade 28.24 23.94 29.37 28.83 30.76 29.37 29.5 31.15 32.99
Transport 10.3 8.65 8.18 9.07 8.47 8.26 8.22 7.92 7.42
Services 21.26 26.41 20.35 23.75 26.58 25.03 24 22.39 21.3
Activity not described 0.44 7.43 0.09 0.07 0.13 0.01 0.06 0.26 0.08
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
154
Table A5.3: Sectoral Distribution of Informal Employment according to Rural and
Urban Areas, Pakistan (2001 - 2008)
Mining All
and Manu- Cons- other
Years Class Quarrying facturing Electricity truction Trade Transport Finance Services Total
Rural 0.02 9.53 0.02 9.89 15.24 7.11 0.23 9.25 51.29
2001-
02 Urban 0.01 11.33 0.01 3.97 18.72 4.62 0.43 9.62 48.71
Total 0.03 20.86 0.03 13.86 33.96 11.73 0.66 18.87 100
Rural 0.03 9.96 0 9.66 15.38 6.22 0.37 8.58 50.2
2003-
04 Urban 0.01 10.65 0.07 3.72 19.24 4.93 1.03 10.14 49.79
Total 0.04 20.61 0.07 13.38 34.62 11.15 1.4 18.72 100
Rural 0.09 10 0.02 9.73 15.24 6.65 0.4 8.22 50.35
2005-
06 Urban 0.01 11.34 0.01 4.06 19.25 4.43 1.04 9.51 49.65
Total 0.1 21.34 0.03 13.79 34.49 11.08 1.44 17.73 100
Rural 0.1 9.89 0.02 10.15 14.83 6.25 0.39 8.59 50.22
2006-
07 Urban 0.01 10.46 0.01 4.41 19.75 4.59 1.2 9.35 49.78
Total 0.11 20.35 0.03 14.56 34.58 10.84 1.59 17.94 100
Rural 0.09 10.19 0.02 9.7 15.7 6.79 0.51 8.15 51.15
2007-
Urban 0 10.68 0.02 4.51 19.64 4.24 1.27 8.48 48.84
08
Total 0.09 20.87 0.04 14.21 35.34 11.03 1.78 16.63 100
Rural 0.09 10.2 0.02 10.77 17.08 6.83 0.57 4.98 50.54
2008-
Urban 0.03 11.3 0.01 4.73 22.53 4.06 1.27 5.54 49.47
09
Total 0.12 21.5 0.03 15.5 39.61 10.89 1.84 10.52 100
155
Table A5.4 : Sectoral Employment and GDP Growth Rate of Pakistan (1974-2008)
Sector Growth Rate 1974 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 1974
-80* -85 -90 -95 -00 -05 -08 -08
GDP
3.31 4.16 4.43 4.01 3.80 1.80 4.52 3.65
Agriculture
Employment
1.72 1.39 2.91 -0.89 3.86 -0.12 6.23 1.90
GDP
5.55 5.67 7.00 4.38 2.23 8.77 7.49 5.76
Manufacturing
Employment
9.84 1.05 1.18 -3.13 5.08 5.79 3.30 3.68
GDP
9.75 2.00 5.63 4.22 -6.58 1.41 10.7 3.82
Construction
Employment
4.46 4.79 5.28 3.34 -1.24 2.40 7.54 3.62
GDP
8.16 1.06 12.9 8.56 2.51 0.75 -16.9 3.86
Electricity
Employment
30.5 0.80 -0.46 7.48 0.01 1.36 6.47 7.96
GDP
5.98 14.5 4.21 6.14 5.06 3.05 5.55 6.38
Transport
Employment
5.93 4.10 1.45 1.62 3.02 4.84 3.40 3.62
GDP
6.16 8.62 5.63 4.72 5.42 6.07 7.63 6.24
Trade &finance
Employment
5.79 1.52 3.34 4.80 1.75 4.07 4.60 3.76
GDP
All other 7.44 6.37 5.73 4.72 0.83 4.71 7.81 5.35
services Employment
-0.65 6.07 2.10 5.15 3.04 3.65 2.98 2.98
156
Appendix IV
157
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