INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

LECTURE -3
Foreign Policy: Determinants,
Decision making and analysis
 National interest;
power ;foreign policy
 Foreign Policy Definition
“Strategies that governments use to guide their
actions in the international arena; the actions
state leaders decide to pursue and protect
national interest in given situations.”

• FP is designed to protect and promote the

national interest abroad.
 Foreign Policy Determinants
External Factors;
• A country’s position in power structure

• Standing in International Organizations

• Geographic Location

• World public opinion/Public Perception

• Alliances
Internal Factors;

• Military Power

• Type of Government and leadership

• Size, Geography, and resources.

• Quality of Diplomacy

• Role of Media and Think Tanks

 Determinants of PAKISTAN’s Foreign
Policy
• Mostly same as previously mentioned
determinants
• + Rival India
• + kashmir Issue
• + Afghanistan: border sidpute and instability
 Foreign policy decision making
Process
• 1 Assessment of the international and domestic
political environment.

• 2 Goal setting.

• 3 Determination of policy options.

• 4 Formal decision making process.

• 5 Implementation of chosen policy option.

Foreign Policy Decision Making:
Graham Allison’s
Three models
Foreign Policy Decision Making:
Graham Allison’sThree models
 Graham Allison’s Three models on FP
1- Rational Actor Model
• “Decision maker set goals,
• Evaluate their relative importance,
• Calculate the cost and benefits for each possible course of
action,
• Choose the one with highest benefits and lowest cost”.
Applicable in democratic gvt. or dictatorship
Pakistan’s entry in War on terror as a non-NATO ally
with USA was a rational attempt taken by a dictator.
Objectives of Pakistan at that time :
• To save nuclear status
• To prevent India from becoming preferred ally in Afghanistan
• We wanted to end our isolation( common wealth membership suspend, diplomatic
isolation)
• To protect Pakistan from a label of terror sponsoring state ( as pak was ally of Taliban at
that time)
• To prevent our self from sanction
Graham Allison’s Three models on FP
Merits of RAM.
• Useful when no or little information about the
enemy is available.
• Useful in crisis situation – little time for
discussions
Demerits of RAM.
• Clash of interests
• Tensions amongst Bureaucratic Agencies (govt
institutions).
Graham Allison’s Three models on FP
2 - Organizational Process Model (OPM)– decisions
are made by organizations
Mostly democracy uses it:
• Shows the pressures that organizations place on decision
Maker’s choices.
• Model assumes objectives are already set.
• SOPs are followed-consultation is taken.
• SOPs enhance efficiency.

• Saudi Arabi asked for troops to fight in yemen in 2015 (

surveys, military, intelligence, media and all other sections
of country were taken on-board )
Graham Allison’s Three models on FP
Merits of OPM
• Decision makers respond based on the SOPs.
• Highlights the domestic influences on FP.
• Shows the relationship among other government
institutions.
Demerits of OPM
• Time consuming. All organization are taken on
board’ so it is time consuming
• Gives little options to the rulers.
 Graham Allison’s Three models on FP
(3) Bureaucratic Model/ Govt. Bargaining Model.
• Key individuals in critical positions have great influence.
• They have different priorities.
• They have different organizational positions and
commitments:

• In 1992, the Japanese government : import of sushi from

California
• Agricultural ministry opposed this decision( to protect the
interests of farmers) while foreign ministry supported it ( to
promote relation with USA)
• Finally decision of foreign ministry got weight.
Merits of BM

• Helps explain why individuals are at times

working for their self interest.

• Also explains why policy sometimes looks

irrational.