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Shinsegae

(004170 KS)
Key lies in duty-free business
4Q18 review: OP slightly misses consensus
Retail
For 4Q18, Shinsegae reported consolidated revenue of W1.54tr (+40.7% YoY) and
operating profit of W133.8bn (-12.2% YoY). Operating profit came in slightly below our
Results Comment estimate, weighed down by: 1) continued losses at Shinsegae DF; and 2) weaker-than-
February 18, 2019 expected performances of subsidiaries Shinsegae International (031430 KS/CP:
W260,500) and Casamia.

Department store: Non-consolidated operating profit grew 2.5% YoY to W94.1bn. We


believe promotional expense savings were largely absent in the quarter due to an
(Maintain) Buy unfavorable comparison. Still, operating profit improved thanks to the robust growth
of luxury and sportswear. Management guided operating profit growth of 5% for 2019
Target Price (12M, W) 360,000 (excluding the Incheon store and online sales).

Share Price (02/15/19, W) 266,000 Duty-free: Shinsegae DF reported an operating loss of W5.3bn. Losses continued QoQ,
affected by: 1) the full recognition of the rental payment for the Terminal 1 (T1) airport
Expected Return 35% location; 2) softer revenue resulting from weak seasonality (daily revenue at the
Myeongdong store fell from W5.7bn in 3Q18 to W5.4bn in 4Q18); and 3) stiffer-than-
expected competition in promotions and travel agent commissions. Management
OP (18, Wbn) 397 guided positive operating profit growth for 2019.
Consensus OP (18F, Wbn) 408
Duty-free business to generate profit in 2019
EPS Growth (18, %) 29.5 We forecast Shinsegae DF’s 2019 operating profit at W36.1bn (-5% YoY). We see
Market EPS Growth (18F, %) 4.6 operating profit slightly declining YoY, pressured by: 1) increasing competition in travel
P/E (18, x) 10.7 agent commissions, led by Lotte (which is likely to focus on defending its market share
Market P/E (18F, x) 9.1 in 1Q19) and newcomer Hyundai Department Store (HDS; 069960 KS/Buy/TP:
KOSPI 2,196.09 W125,000/CP: W94,100); and 2) another significant loss at the T1 airport location.
China’s move to strengthen its duty-free store industry (Hainan duty-free zone) is
Market Cap (Wbn) 2,619
another potential headwind.
Shares Outstanding (mn) 10
Free Float (%) 71.8 While profit contraction looks inevitable due to such risks, we still think Shinsegae DF will
Foreign Ownership (%) 27.8 generate an operating profit in 2019. Profits could fall in 1Q19, dragged down by: 1) T1
Beta (12M) 1.62 rent pressures; and 2) travel agent commission competition among downtown stores.
52-Week Low 236,500 However, we note that: 1) Chinese inbound traffic is continuing to recover; and 2) daily
52-Week High 465,500 revenue is likely to improve once the new Gangnam and T1 locations have full
merchandise setups (which generally takes six to 12 months from opening). We expect
(%) 1M 6M 12M Shinsegae DF to begin to normalize in 2H19. Taking into account Shinsegae’s inexpensive
Absolute 3.9 -10.7 -14.1 valuation, we believe any share price correction should be used as a buying opportunity.
Relative -0.8 -8.2 -5.2
Maintain Buy and TP of W360,000
160 Shinsegae KOSPI
We maintain our Buy rating and target price of W360,000 on Shinsegae. Any downside
140
risks to share prices triggered by the disappointing 4Q18 results are likely to be
120
limited, as the headwinds were already widely known.
100

80 In 2019, we project Shinsegae DF’s operating profit to decline YoY, hurt by the impact
60
of China’s new e-commerce law and the entry of HDS. However, we forecast
2.18 6.18 10.18 2.19 consolidated operating profit to increase, supported by the strong revenue of
subsidiaries. In addition, the planned establishment of the new Shinsegae online
Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. company in March 2019 could bring attention to the value of the online platform.

[Retail] FY (Dec.) 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19F 12/20F


Revenue (Wbn) 2,564 2,947 3,871 5,182 5,431 5,926
Myoungjoo Kim
+822-3774-1458 OP (Wbn) 262 251 346 397 427 5,926
myoungjoo.kim@miraeasset.com OP Margin (%) 10.2 8.5 8.9 7.7 7.9 100.0
NP (Wbn) 402 227 182 236 282 4,213
EPS (W) 40,843 23,071 18,513 23,970 28,595 427,945
ROE (%) 14.3 7.3 5.5 6.8 7.7 71.3
P/E (x) 5.6 7.6 16.2 10.7 9.3 0.6
P/B (x) 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.3
Dividend Yield (%) 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5
Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates
February 18, 2019 Shinsegae

Table 1. 4Q18 review (consolidated) (Wbn, %)


4Q18 Growth
4Q17 3Q18 Mirae Asset
Actual Consensus YoY QoQ
Daewoo
Revenue 1,093 1,366 1,537 1,503 1,512 40.7 12.5

Operating profit 152 70 134 149 147 -12.2 90.6

OP margin (%) 14 5 9 10 10 -5.2 3.6

Net profit 70 29 82 101 96 16.5 185.9


Source: Company data, DataGuide, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates

Table 2. Earnings forecast revisions (consolidated) (Wbn, %, %p)

Previous Revised Change


Notes
2018F 2019F 2018 2019F 2018 2019F
Revenue 5,147 5,520 5,182 5,431 0.7 -1.6

Operating profit 412 439 397 427 -3.6 -2.6 - Reflected 4Q18 earnings
OP margin 8.0 8.0 7.7 7.9 -0.3 -0.1

Net profit 255 283 236 282 -7.5 -0.5


Note: Net profit is attributable to controlling interests.
Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates

Table 3. Earnings and forecasts (consolidated) (Wbn)

1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 2016 2017 2018 2019F
Gross revenue 1,275 1,317 1,452 1,793 1,771 1,700 1,814 2,082 2,004 2,020 2,177 2,505 5,836 7,367 8,706 8,837
Net revenue 643 657 771 876 917 877 985 1,093 1,095 1,183 1,359 1,537 2,947 3,871 5,182 5,431
Shinsegae 378 386 408 472 415 400 404 447 426 414 432 468 1644 1665 1739 1542
Shinsegae International 248 236 245 292 272 239 269 322 304 283 312 364 1021 1103 1263 1406
Central City 46 51 63 67 63 63 64 67 45 47 57 68 228 256 217 254
Shinsegae DF 0 20 99 189 183 191 271 275 340 445 579 645 208 920 2009 2336
Shinsegae Dongdaegu 0 0 0 12 40 36 39 44 42 40 43 49 12 159 174 180
Other -29 -37 -43 -157 -56 -53 -61 -62 -61 -77 -64 -83 -165 -232 -271 -286
Gross profit 411 429 457 593 562 538 560 651 631 657 746 892 1890 2312 2933 2622
Operating profit 62 43 41 106 78 41 75 152 113 80 70 134 251 346 397 427
Shinsegae 44 37 37 80 52 36 40 92 59 42 47 94 198 220 242 195
Shinsegae International 4 8 1 15 4 4 1 16 12 14 11 18 27 25 56 87
Central City 18 16 25 30 25 14 26 28 16 5 17 26 88 93 64 93
Shinsegae DF 0 -15 -20 -15 -2 -4 10 11 24 23 -3 -5 -52 15 39 36
Shinsegae Dongdaegu 0 -2 -1 -5 -2 -9 -3 6 2 -1 2 7 -9 -8 10 12
Other -3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 -6 -3 -1 0 1 -9 0
Pretax profit 55 204 17 140 48 68 64 112 106 66 55 128 415 291 355 396
Net profit 36 98 -2 94 25 48 39 70 76 50 29 82 227 182 236 282
YoY growth (%)
Gross revenue 2.6 9.8 23.7 24.7 38.9 29.1 24.9 16.1 13.2 18.8 17.1 20.3 15.5 26.2 18.2 1.5
Net revenue 2.0 9.2 28.4 19.8 42.5 33.5 27.7 24.8 19.5 34.9 37.9 40.7 15.0 31.3 33.9 4.8
Gross profit 2.2 9.7 23.5 25.9 36.9 25.3 22.5 9.9 12.3 22.0 33.2 36.9 15.6 22.3 26.8 -10.6
Operating profit -12.9 -14.1 8.1 2.3 25.0 -2.9 82.9 44.4 45.9 93.1 -5.8 -12.2 -4.1 37.5 14.8 7.7
Net profit -20.4 -63.7 TTR 71.1 -31.6 -51.4 TTB -25.8 203.9 4.6 -27.6 16.5 -43.5 -19.8 29.5 19.3
Note: Net profit is attributable to controlling interests.
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates

Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2


February 18, 2019 Shinsegae

Table 4. Relaxation of Hainan duty-free policies


Purchase limit Purchase frequency Target age
Date Policy No. of items
(RMB) (per year) group
Residents: Twice
Apr. 2011 - Duty-free policy introduced to Hainan on a pilot basis 5,000 18 18+
Non-residents: Once
Residents: Twice
Nov. 2012 - Purchase ceiling, scope of eligibility, and category of goods expanded 8,000 21 16+
Non-residents: Once
- Easing of purchase limit (max. 10 units per person) for high-demand Residents: Twice
Mar. 2015 8,000 38 16+
items (perfume, cosmetics, etc.) Non-residents: Once
- Differential treatment of non-residents/residents abolished
Feb. 2016 16,000 No restriction 38 16+
- Duty-free allowance per person lifted
Jan. 2017 - Scope of eligibility expanded to include tourists arriving by train 16,000 No restriction 38 16+
- Purchase allowance raised
Dec. 2018 30,000 No restriction 39 16+
- Scope of eligibility expanded to include cruise tourists
Source: Press reports, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 3


February 18, 2019 Shinsegae

Shinsegae (004170 KS/Buy/TP: W360,000)

Comprehensive Income Statement (Summarized) Statement of Financial Condition (Summarized)


(Wbn) 12/17 12/18F 12/19F 12/20F (Wbn) 12/17 12/18F 12/19F 12/20F
Revenue 3,871 5,182 5,431 5,926 Current Assets 1,269 2,377 2,324 7,250
Cost of Sales 1,559 2,249 2,809 0 Cash and Cash Equivalents 175 839 842 5,767
Gross Profit 2,312 2,933 2,622 5,926 AR & Other Receivables 351 493 475 475
SG&A Expenses 1,966 2,536 2,195 0 Inventories 464 652 629 629
Operating Profit (Adj) 346 397 427 5,926 Other Current Assets 279 393 378 379
Operating Profit 346 397 427 5,926 Non-Current Assets 8,883 9,520 9,442 9,186
Non-Operating Profit -55 -42 -31 0 Investments in Associates 297 417 402 402
Net Financial Income -64 -80 -123 0 Property, Plant and Equipment 6,632 6,745 6,734 6,491
Net Gain from Inv in Associates 21 20 24 0 Intangible Assets 297 424 408 395
Pretax Profit 291 355 396 5,926 Total Assets 10,152 11,897 11,766 16,435
Income Tax 78 73 83 1,244 Current Liabilities 2,892 3,799 3,715 3,715
Profit from Continuing Operations 214 282 313 4,681 AP & Other Payables 367 517 498 498
Profit from Discontinued Operations 0 0 0 0 Short-Term Financial Liabilities 1,266 1,512 1,511 1,511
Net Profit 214 282 313 4,681 Other Current Liabilities 1,259 1,770 1,706 1,706
Controlling Interests 182 236 282 4,213 Non-Current Liabilities 2,340 3,022 2,675 2,675
Non-Controlling Interests 31 46 31 468 Long-Term Financial Liabilities 1,416 1,722 1,422 1,422
Total Comprehensive Profit 239 189 313 4,681 Other Non-Current Liabilities 924 1,300 1,253 1,253
Controlling Interests 209 139 225 3,371 Total Liabilities 5,232 6,821 6,390 6,390
Non-Controlling Interests 30 49 88 1,311 Controlling Interests 3,422 3,541 3,810 8,010
EBITDA 615 689 710 6,182 Capital Stock 49 49 49 49
FCF (Free Cash Flow) -38 737 255 4,938 Capital Surplus 400 393 393 393
EBITDA Margin (%) 15.9 13.3 13.1 104.3 Retained Earnings 2,246 2,459 2,728 6,929
Operating Profit Margin (%) 8.9 7.7 7.9 100.0 Non-Controlling Interests 1,498 1,535 1,566 2,035
Net Profit Margin (%) 4.7 4.6 5.2 71.1 Stockholders' Equity 4,920 5,076 5,376 10,045

Cash Flows (Summarized) Forecasts/Valuations (Summarized)


(Wbn) 12/17 12/18F 12/19F 12/20F 12/17 12/18F 12/19F 12/20F
Cash Flows from Op Activities 357 1,071 510 4,938 P/E (x) 16.2 10.7 9.3 0.6
Net Profit 214 282 313 4,681 P/CF (x) 4.5 3.5 3.6 0.4
Non-Cash Income and Expense 436 440 421 1,475 P/B (x) 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.3
Depreciation 252 273 266 244 EV/EBITDA (x) 11.0 9.0 8.5 0.2
Amortization 17 19 16 13 EPS (W) 18,513 23,970 28,595 427,945
Others 167 148 139 1,218 CFPS (W) 66,004 73,352 74,540 625,305
Chg in Working Capital -143 479 -85 0 BPS (W) 347,920 359,625 386,972 813,667
Chg in AR & Other Receivables -54 -141 13 0 DPS (W) 1,250 1,250 1,250 1,250
Chg in Inventories -85 -103 24 0 Payout ratio (%) 5.8 4.4 3.9 0.3
Chg in AP & Other Payables -8 55 -4 0 Dividend Yield (%) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5
Income Tax Paid -94 -72 -83 -1,244 Revenue Growth (%) 31.4 33.9 4.8 9.1
Cash Flows from Inv Activities -265 -695 -209 0 EBITDA Growth (%) 33.7 12.0 3.0 770.7
Chg in PP&E -353 -333 -255 0 Operating Profit Growth (%) 37.8 14.7 7.6 1,287.8
Chg in Intangible Assets -3 -4 0 0 EPS Growth (%) -19.8 29.5 19.3 1,396.6
Chg in Financial Assets 17 -367 46 0 Accounts Receivable Turnover (x) 17.0 17.3 15.8 17.6
Others 74 9 0 0 Inventory Turnover (x) 9.0 9.3 8.5 9.4
Cash Flows from Fin Activities 4 392 -313 -12 Accounts Payable Turnover (x) 16.3 21.6 23.5 0.0
Chg in Financial Liabilities 26 552 -301 0 ROA (%) 2.1 2.6 2.6 33.2
Chg in Equity 0 -6 0 0 ROE (%) 5.5 6.8 7.7 71.3
Dividends Paid -36 -29 -12 -12 ROIC (%) 3.9 10.1 4.6 73.6
Others 14 -125 0 0 Liability to Equity Ratio (%) 106.4 134.4 118.9 63.6
Increase (Decrease) in Cash 97 664 3 4,925 Current Ratio (%) 43.9 62.6 62.6 195.1
Beginning Balance 78 175 839 842 Net Debt to Equity Ratio (%) 46.8 41.6 33.8 -30.9
Ending Balance 175 839 842 5,767 Interest Coverage Ratio (x) 4.5 4.5 3.5 0.0
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates

Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 4


February 18, 2019 Shinsegae

APPENDIX 1

Important Disclosures & Disclaimers


2-Year Rating and Target Price History
Company (Code) Date Rating Target Price
(W) Shinsegae
Shinsegae (004170) 11/09/2018 Buy 360,000 500,000
04/26/2018 Buy 470,000
400,000
01/16/2018 Buy 370,000
08/31/2017 No Coverage 300,000
10/23/2016 Buy 250,000
200,000

100,000

0
Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb 19

Stock Ratings Industry Ratings


Buy : Relative performance of 20% or greater Overweight : Fundamentals are favorable or improving
Trading Buy : Relative performance of 10% or greater, but with volatility Neutral : Fundamentals are steady without any material changes
Hold : Relative performance of -10% and 10% Underweight : Fundamentals are unfavorable or worsening
Sell : Relative performance of -10%
Ratings and Target Price History (Share price (─), Target price (▬), Not covered (■), Buy (▲), Trading Buy (■), Hold (●), Sell (◆))
* Our investment rating is a guide to the relative return of the stock versus the market over the next 12 months.
* Although it is not part of the official ratings at Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd., we may call a trading opportunity in case there is a technical or short-term material
development.
* The target price was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on the analyst’s estimate of future
earnings.
* The achievement of the target price may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic
conditions.

Equity Ratings Distribution & Investment Banking Services


Buy Trading Buy Hold Sell
Equity Ratings Distribution 81.28% 9.63% 9.09% 0.00%
Investment Banking Services 84.61% 3.85% 11.54% 0.00%
* Based on recommendations in the last 12-months (as of December 31, 2018)

Disclosures
As of the publication date, Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. and/or its affiliates do not have any special interest with the subject company and do not own 1% or more of
the subject company's shares outstanding.

Analyst Certification
The research analysts who prepared this report (the “Analysts”) are registered with the Korea Financial Investment Association and are subject to Korean
securities regulations. They are neither registered as research analysts in any other jurisdiction nor subject to the laws or regulations thereof. Each Analyst
responsible for the preparation of this report certifies that (i) all views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the Analyst about
any and all of the issuers and securities named in this report and (ii) no part of the compensation of the Analyst was, is, or will be directly or indirectly
related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report. Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. (“Mirae Asset Daewoo”) policy prohibits its Analysts
and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the Analyst’s area of coverage, and the Analysts do not serve as an officer,
director or advisory board member of the subject companies. Except as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or
any other benefits from the subject companies in the past 12 months and have not been promised the same in connection with this report. Like all
employees of Mirae Asset Daewoo, the Analysts receive compensation that is determined by overall firm profitability, which includes revenues from,
among other business units, the institutional equities, investment banking, proprietary trading and private client division. At the time of publication of this
report, the Analysts do not know or have reason to know of any actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or Mirae Asset Daewoo except as
otherwise stated herein.

Disclaimers
This report was prepared by Mirae Asset Daewoo, a broker-dealer registered in the Republic of Korea and a member of the Korea Exchange. Information
and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith and from sources believed to be reliable, but such information has not been
independently verified and Mirae Asset Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy,
completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein or of any translation into English from the Korean language. In case of an
English translation of a report prepared in the Korean language, the original Korean language report may have been made available to investors in
advance of this report.
The intended recipients of this report are sophisticated institutional investors who have substantial knowledge of the local business environment, its
common practices, laws and accounting principles and no person whose receipt or use of this report would violate any laws or regulations or subject Mirae
Asset Daewoo or any of its affiliates to registration or licensing requirements in any jurisdiction shall receive or make any use hereof.
This report is for general information purposes only and it is not and shall not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to effect transactions in
any securities or other financial instruments. The report does not constitute investment advice to any person and such person shall not be treated as a
client of Mirae Asset Daewoo by virtue of receiving this report. This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial

Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 5


February 18, 2019 Shinsegae

situations, or needs of individual clients. The report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Information and
opinions contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The price and value of the investments referred to in this
report and the income from them may depreciate or appreciate, and investors may incur losses on investments. Past performance is not a guide to future
performance. Future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Mirae Asset Daewoo, its affiliates and their directors, officers,
employees and agents do not accept any liability for any loss arising out of the use hereof.
Mirae Asset Daewoo may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the opinions presented in this report.
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investment decisions that are inconsistent with the opinions and views expressed in this research report. Mirae Asset Daewoo, its affiliates and their
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Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 6


February 18, 2019 Shinsegae

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