Correlation

A B C D E F
1 Pop Mort Rate Year
2 Pop 1
3 Mort Rate 0.9136788 1
4 Year 0.9996546 0.9099501 1
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13 Since year and pop has high correlation, they can be used to build regression model

Page 1
 Full Regression

A B C D E F G H I
1 SUMMARY OUTPUT
2
3 Regression Statistics
4 Multiple R 0.6609831525
5 R Square 0.4368987279
6 Adjusted R Squ 0.3479880007
7 Standard Error 279.585591087
8 Observations 23
9
10 ANOVA
11 df SS MS F Significance F
12 Regression 3 1152331.52613 384110.508711 4.9139034367 0.0107964465 Not significant at 0.01 level)
13 Residual 19 1485193.95213 78168.1027435
14 Total 22 2637525.47826
15
16 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
17 Intercept 221794.525471 661959.950705 0.3350573176 0.7412527537 -1163704.0049 1607293.05579526 -1163704.0049 1607293.0558
18 Pop 90.3925575749 162.91463576 0.5548461448 0.5854731945 -250.59179982 431.376914972 -250.59179982 431.376914972
19 Mort Rate -206.89643963 55.4961161632 -3.7281246677 0.0014253497 -323.05118177 -90.7416974848 -323.05118177 -90.741697485
20 Year -120.38473607 352.8922741 -0.3411373524 0.7367437193 -858.99698385 618.2275117019 -858.99698385 618.227511702

Page 2
 Pop and Mortgage

A B C D E F G H I
1 SUMMARY OUTPUT
2
3 Regression Statistics
4 Multiple R 0.6583690011
5 R Square 0.4334497416
6 Adjusted R Squa 0.3767947158
7 Standard Error 273.3396002451
8 Observations 23
9
10 ANOVA
11 df SS MS F Significance F
12 Regression 2 1143234.737018 571617.3685089 7.6506847393 0.0034070964
13 Residual 20 1494290.741243 74714.53706216
14 Total 22 2637525.478261
15
16 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
17 Intercept -4024.025796546 1627.113432902 -2.4731071081 0.0224861609 -7418.123365523 -629.928227568 -7418.123365523 -629.928227568
18 Pop 34.9165924162 9.5648399022 3.6505150921 0.0015902153 14.9646952693 54.8684895631 14.9646952693 54.8684895631
19 Mort Rate -200.8475580653 51.4123810281 -3.9065990341 0.0008751723 -308.0918558101 -93.6032603205 -308.0918558101 -93.6032603205

Page 3
 Pop Mort Rate Year
Pop 1
Mort Rate 0.913679 1
Year 0.999655 0.90995 1
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.660983
R Square 0.436899
Adjusted R Square 0.347988
Standard Error 279.5856
Observations 23

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 3 1152332 384110.5 4.913903 0.010796
Residual 19 1485194 78168.1
Total 22 2637525

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept 221794.5 661960 0.335057 0.741253 -1163704 1607293 -1163704 1607293
Pop 90.39256 162.9146 0.554846 0.585473 -250.5917 431.3768 -250.5917 431.3768
Mort Rate -206.8964 55.49612 -3.728125 0.001425 -323.0511 -90.74173 -323.0511 -90.74173
Year -120.3847 352.8923 -0.341137 0.736744 -858.9968 618.2273 -858.9968 618.2273

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted Starts

Residuals
1 1344.862 290.1381
2 1510.138 50.8624
3 1572.607 -62.60694
4 1632.365 -436.3654
5 1649.318 -327.3176
6 1604.201 -59.20077
7 1492.877 7.1229
8 1418.795 15.20521
9 1716.484 368.5158
10 1805.85 573.1499
11 1791.768 265.2323
12 1653.548 -300.5475
13 1697.396 -526.3962
14 1757.797 -209.7966
15 1814.059 187.941
16 1853.128 182.8721
17 1661.115 98.88538
18 1422.942 -110.9422
19 1061.274 38.72611
20 1030.64 41.36017
21 1622.764 89.23594
22 1722.475 33.52524
23 1954.599 -209.5992
Upper 95.0%
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.658369
R Square 0.43345
Adjusted R 0.376795
Standard E 273.3396
Observatio 23

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 2 1143235 571617.4 7.650685 0.003407
Residual 20 1494291 74714.54
Total 22 2637525

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept -4024.026 1627.113 -2.473107 0.022486 -7418.125 -629.9267 -7418.125 -629.9267
Pop 34.91659 9.56484 3.650515 0.00159 14.96469 54.8685 14.96469 54.8685
Mort Rate -200.8476 51.41238 -3.906599 0.000875 -308.0919 -93.60321 -308.0919 -93.60321

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation
Predicted Starts
Residuals
1 1392.218 242.7819
2 1511.027 49.97284
3 1582.869 -72.86882
4 1599.246 -403.2457
5 1626.901 -304.9009
6 1594.302 -49.3018
7 1497.432 2.568489
8 1436.714 -2.713783
9 1684.065 400.9347
10 1782.017 596.9828
11 1779.545 277.4548
12 1656.565 -303.5648
13 1710.33 -539.3301
14 1780.163 -232.1633
15 1845.98 156.0204
16 1842.272 193.7283
17 1667.071 92.92918
18 1394.227 -82.22719
19 1054.331 45.66864
20 1035.792 36.20839
21 1621.803 90.19698
22 1729.797 26.20276
23 1966.334 -221.3339
 Column 1 Column 2 Column 3
Column 1 1
Column 2 0.0336 1
Column 3 -0.236537 0.913679 1
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.660983
R Square 0.436899
Adjusted R 0.347988
Standard E 279.5856
Observatio 23

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 3 1152332 384110.5 4.913903 0.010796
Residual 19 1485194 78168.1
Total 22 2637525

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept 221794.5 661960 0.335057 0.741253 -1163704 1607293 -1163704 1607293
Pop 90.39256 162.9146 0.554846 0.585473 -250.5917 431.3768 -250.5917 431.3768
Mort Rate -206.8964 55.49612 -3.728125 0.001425 -323.0511 -90.74173 -323.0511 -90.74173
Year -120.3847 352.8923 -0.341137 0.736744 -858.9968 618.2273 -858.9968 618.2273

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation
Predicted Starts
Residuals
1 1344.862 290.1381
2 1510.138 50.8624
3 1572.607 -62.60694
4 1632.365 -436.3654
5 1649.318 -327.3176
6 1604.201 -59.20077
7 1492.877 7.1229
8 1418.795 15.20521
9 1716.484 368.5158
10 1805.85 573.1499
11 1791.768 265.2323
12 1653.548 -300.5475
13 1697.396 -526.3962
14 1757.797 -209.7966
15 1814.059 187.941
16 1853.128 182.8721
17 1661.115 98.88538
18 1422.942 -110.9422
19 1061.274 38.72611
20 1030.64 41.36017
21 1622.764 89.23594
22 1722.475 33.52524
23 1954.599 -209.5992
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.658369
R Square 0.43345
Adjusted R 0.376795
Standard E 273.3396
Observatio 23

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 2 1143235 571617.4 7.650685 0.003407
Residual 20 1494291 74714.54
Total 22 2637525

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept -4024.026 1627.113 -2.473107 0.022486 -7418.125 -629.9267 -7418.125 -629.9267
Pop 34.91659 9.56484 3.650515 0.00159 14.96469 54.8685 14.96469 54.8685
Mort Rate -200.8476 51.41238 -3.906599 0.000875 -308.0919 -93.60321 -308.0919 -93.60321

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation
Predicted Starts
Residuals
1 1392.218 242.7819
2 1511.027 49.97284
3 1582.869 -72.86882
4 1599.246 -403.2457
5 1626.901 -304.9009
6 1594.302 -49.3018
7 1497.432 2.568489
8 1436.714 -2.713783
9 1684.065 400.9347
10 1782.017 596.9828
11 1779.545 277.4548
12 1656.565 -303.5648
13 1710.33 -539.3301
14 1780.163 -232.1633
15 1845.98 156.0204
16 1842.272 193.7283
17 1667.071 92.92918
18 1394.227 -82.22719
19 1054.331 45.66864
20 1035.792 36.20839
21 1621.803 90.19698
22 1729.797 26.20276
23 1966.334 -221.3339
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.660983
R Square 0.436899
Adjusted R 0.347988
Standard E 279.5856
Observatio 23

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 3 1152332 384110.5 4.913903 0.0107964465
Residual 19 1485194 78168.1
Total 22 2637525

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept 221794.5 661960 0.335057 0.741253 -1163703.5817 1607293 -1163704 1607293
Pop 90.39256 162.9146 0.554846 0.585473 -250.59169567 431.3768 -250.5917 431.3768
Mort Rate -206.8964 55.49612 -3.728125 0.001425 -323.05114587 -90.74173 -323.0511 -90.74173
Year -120.3847 352.8923 -0.341137 0.736744 -858.996762 618.2273 -858.9968 618.2273

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation
Predicted Starts
Residuals
1 1344.862 290.1381
2 1510.138 50.8624
3 1572.607 -62.60694
4 1632.365 -436.3654
5 1649.318 -327.3176
6 1604.201 -59.20077
7 1492.877 7.1229
8 1418.795 15.20521
9 1716.484 368.5158
10 1805.85 573.1499
11 1791.768 265.2323
12 1653.548 -300.5475
13 1697.396 -526.3962
14 1757.797 -209.7966
15 1814.059 187.941
16 1853.128 182.8721
17 1661.115 98.88538
18 1422.942 -110.9422
19 1061.274 38.72611
20 1030.64 41.36017
21 1622.764 89.23594
22 1722.475 33.52524
23 1954.599 -209.5992
Upper 95.0%
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.660983
R Square 0.436899
Adjusted R 0.347988
Standard E 279.5856
Observatio 23

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 3 1152332 384110.5 4.913903 0.010796
Residual 19 1485194 78168.1
Total 22 2637525

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept 221794.5 661960 0.335057 0.741253 -1163704 1607293 -1163704 1607293
Pop 90.39256 162.9146 0.554846 0.585473 -250.5917 431.3768 -250.5917 431.3768
Mort Rate -206.8964 55.49612 -3.728125 0.001425 -323.0511 -90.74173 -323.0511 -90.74173
Year -120.3847 352.8923 -0.341137 0.736744 -858.9968 618.2273 -858.9968 618.2273

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation
Predicted Starts
Residuals
1 1344.862 290.1381
2 1510.138 50.8624
3 1572.607 -62.60694
4 1632.365 -436.3654
5 1649.318 -327.3176
6 1604.201 -59.20077
7 1492.877 7.1229
8 1418.795 15.20521
9 1716.484 368.5158
10 1805.85 573.1499
11 1791.768 265.2323
12 1653.548 -300.5475
13 1697.396 -526.3962
14 1757.797 -209.7966
15 1814.059 187.941
16 1853.128 182.8721
17 1661.115 98.88538
18 1422.942 -110.9422
19 1061.274 38.72611
20 1030.64 41.36017
21 1622.764 89.23594
22 1722.475 33.52524
23 1954.599 -209.5992
Upper 95.0%
 Data

A B C D E F G H I
1 Housing data Std Dev
2 thousandsmillions 1963-1980 285.701
3 Starts Pop Mort Rate Year Predictions Error 1981-1985 255.8862
4 1635 189 5.89 1963 1329.17233 305.8277
5 1561 192 5.82 1964 1490.65144 70.34856
6 1510 194 5.81 1965 1587.9926 -77.9926
7 1196 197 6.25 1966 1606.04703 -410.047
8 1322 199 6.46 1967 1641.51872 -319.5187
9 1545 201 6.97 1968 1592.62295 -47.62295
10 1500 203 7.8 1969 1453.73522 46.26478
11 1434 205 8.45 1970 1365.46797 68.53203
12 2085 208 7.74 1971 1706.93099 378.069
13 2379 210 7.6 1972 1840.83139 538.1686
14 2057 212 7.96 1973 1834.11934 222.8807
15 1353 214 8.92 1974 1658.67238 -305.6724 Year is independent variable, so it is a time series data
16 1171 216 9 1975 1730.70331 -559.7033
17 1548 218 9 1976 1825.23222 -277.2322
18 2002 220 9.02 1977 1914.13663 87.86337
19 2036 223 9.56 1978 1904.06857 131.9314
20 1760 225 10.78 1979 1655.50315 104.4969
21 1312 228 12.66 1980 1268.59376 43.40624
22 1100 230 14.7 1981 789.423947 310.5761
23 1072 232 15.14 1982 760.213917 311.7861
24 1712 234 12.57 1983 1577.49074 134.5093
25 1756 236 12.38 1984 1725.45238 30.54762
26 1745 238 11.55 1985 2053.39793 -308.3979

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