XVII Dam Monitoring International Conference

19-22 September 2017

Warsaw – Poland

Statistical and neural network methods performances in displacements modelling of a

concrete buttress dam.
Adrian Popovici *, Cornel Ilinca* and Cǎlin Bohuş**
*Tehnical University of Civil Engineering – Bucharest
**S.C. 4C Consulting S.R.L.

Summary
The data collected from monitoring system of dams are usually processed by statistical
methods and very rare by artificial neural networks, although the late are frequently used in
economy and industry.
The paper analyses the performances of the artificial neural networks applied in the field of
concrete dams were comparable with those of statistical methods (EdF, CONDOR, with air
temperature integration).
The study is carried out on X (bank-bank), Y(upstream-downstream) direction of horizontal
displacements measured at two direct pendulums installed at Strâmtori-Firiza buttress dam
(H=51.50m)
The study pointed out that a artificial neural network adequat selected and trained has
similar performances with the most rafinated statistical methods.
Corresponding author
Prof. Adrian Popovici
Email: popovici@utcb.ro
Mobile: +40740206864

Keywords: concrete dam, statistical methods, neural networks, pendulum, displacements

1. Introduction
Surveillance of dams behavior during first reservoir filling and operation is essential to
ensure their safety and to warn on some atypical phenomenon which can become dangerous for
construction safety.
Surveillance consists of two main activities: monitoring activity and visual inspection
carried out by verified personal [1] [2].
 Monitoring activity is based on the data collected from monitoring devices (MD) equiping
the dam-foundation unitary system, data which are processed and analysed by deterministic,
statistical or artificial neural network methods.
In deterministic method is necessary to have a numerical model, ussual in finite elements,
of the dam-foundation system, capable to simulate the system response to environment action.
Statistical and artificial neural networks (ANN) methods are based on processing the long
time rounded data from monitoring devices (MD) in order to point out any abnormal behavior [3]
[4].
In engineering practice from dam’s field, very used are statistical methods (EdF, CONDOR
with air temperature integration etc.). Contrary, neural networks are very scarce applied in dam’s
field although they are frequently applied in other fields (economy, industry etc)
The scope of this paper is to comparatively analyze the performances of ANN versus
statistical methods in modelling the concrete dam’s response to environment actions.
Some practical applications of the above mentioned methods are performed in modelling
the pendulums displacement which are installed at Strâmtori-Firiza buttres dam (H=51.50m). The
application results pointed out that ANN have similar performance with the most rafinated
statistical methods and also have good capacity to signal any deviation from a normal response of
the dam to environment actions.

2. Short description of the statistical and neural networks methods

Three statistical methods are applied in the present paper in order to compare your
performances with those of the neural networks.
EdF statistical method consider three afferent loads (hydrostatic pressure, temperature, time
aging) to describe the response function. The temperature is considered with season variation,
modelled by an trigonometric function. The model is a simple one, and it is liniarized by the
smallest squares rule free of any difficulty.
The distinct influences of the different loads are modelled as follows:
 hydrostatic pressure influence
f1(h) = a1h + a2h2 + a3h3 + a4h4

where
with NRL – normal retention level, H- reservoir depth in the day of the recording
and – dam’s height.

 temperature (season influence)

f2(s) = a5cos(s) + a6sin(s) + a7sin2(s) + a8sin(s)cos(s)

where
with the reference date for model and - recording data
  age of structure (structure time aging influence)
f3(T)= a9 eT + a10 e-T
where ; eT modelling acceleration evolution and e -T – damped
evolution
The mathematical equation has the form:

where y is the parameter evaluated statistic and – the approximation error of the model.
CONDOR statistic model is an improved variant of the EdF model differing from it by a
more detailed of time influence. So, the time influence in CONDOR model is considered by the
following function:

where
The final equation of CONDOR model is as follows:

Groups of 10/11 recorded data are successively selected from long time parameter
recordings at monitoring device, constitute equations system which solved, gives the values, the
value of the y, a0 ...a10/a0...a11 equation coefficients. Final values of the coefficients are evaluated
minimising errors based on the algorithm of the smallest squares.
The model with air temperature integration uses directly the time recorded values of the air
temperature. This model is used especially for concrete dam displacements modelling, taking into
accent the different evolution of the air temperature from one to another year.
The hydrostatic pressure influence is modelled according to formula:
f1(h) = a1h + a2h2 + a3h3 + a4h4
where with CT talveg
elevation (or a reference evaluation which don’t influence
dam’s behabior), H- reservoir elevation in the day of displacement measurement, H b – dam
height.
The temperature influence is given by the sum of the series:

where pt is time step of temperature (in days) and nt the number of the time steps.
The hydrostatic pressure and structure time aging have similar expression as in statistical
models previously presented, as follows:

The artificial neural networks are networks of models of neurons connected through some
adjustable synapses. All the models of neural networks are based on the interconnection of some
element of calculation from a dense network of connection. Each unit of the process is capable to
carry out only simple calculation, but the network, as the whole, can have remarkable qualities in
the recognition of forms, the solution of problems for which it doesn’t have an algorithm but
learning from examples or from experience.
The structural model of neural networks is defined by topology of the network and the
scheme of the interconnection of the units.
The development of a neural network in monitoring the concrete dams consists in the
following stages:
- choice of input parameters (calendar date, reservoir level, air temperature etc)
- choice of output parameters (displacements, stresses etc)
- choice of transfer functions which is made function of network topology and number of
ituations for calibration.
In present study, as transfer function was chosen Sigmoid function having formula
and its derivative .

Sigmoid
Functia function
sigmoidala
1 0.3

0.8

0.2
0.6
1 d 1
x dx 1 e x
1 e
0.4
0.1

0.2

0 0
6 4 2 0 2 4 6
x
Fig.1 – Graphic representation of the Sigmoid Function.

- choice of the network topology which initially can be chosen according to the following
empiric relation:

where H is number of hidden neurons, N- number of input parameters, M- number of

output paramater and T- number of iteration registration.
Further, starting from initial network, are performed sensitivity studies, in order to find a
network as simple as possible but with good performances. So, different numbers of hidden
layers and numbers of neurons on layer are tested (tried)
- next stage consists in neural network training and final testing.
- last stage compreses results analysis, specially of the bidimensional represented
influences.
 3. Short description of the Strâmtori-Firiza dam
Strâmtori-Firiza buttres dam was selected to test the performances of statistical and neural
networks models in processing of some recordings of monitoring devices installed at this dam.

Foto.1 - Downstream view of Strâmtori-Firiza dam.

Strâmtori-Firiza is a buttres dam with 51,50m maximum height consisting of a continuous

upstream face carried out from poligonal heads supported at regular intervals by downstream
buttresses. The hallow coefficient is 0,65. The shape of buttres dam head was selected in
order to transfer the waterload to the buttress in compression. The points between buttress dam
heads are scaled with two lines of cooper waterstop. The week foundation consists if andesite on
left bank and river bad and andesiteblocks included in marlstone mass to right bank in the rockfill
dam sector.
The dam was commissioned in the year 1965.
A number of 14 blocks, each of 10m width and one block of 15m width to close the dam
in right bank. Also, a rockfill dam with concrete face having 15m height and 48.80m lenght
carries out connection to right bank.
A free spillway with 3 spons is located on dam’s central blocks (7,8 and 9) and has
capacity to discharge up to 255 m3/s.
The bottom outlet having D=1000mm is located in block No.8 and can discharge 12 m3/s,
with reservoir at MRL (Maximum Retention Level)
A hydropower station is located at the downstream heel of the dam, blocks 7,8 and 9.
The main characteristics of the dam and reservoir are given in Table 1.
 Table 1
Characteristics name
Maximum height of the dam 51,50 [m]
Crest length 3
Upstream face shape 1:0,40
Downstream face shape 1:0,50
Crest elevation 371,50 mdMN
Minimum foundation
elevation 320,00 mdMN
Free spillway elevation 367,50 mdMN
Reservoir volume at NRL 15,9 * 106 [m3]

The dam foundation system is equipped with several monitoring devices presented in
Table 2, which allow beside visual inspection to detect from initial phase any abnormal behavior
in the system and to take in due time appropriate intervention, if necessary.

Table 2
To date
Provided
No Type of device in use
(1965)
(2016)
Environment actions
1 Measuring level water staff 1 1
2 Reservoir water termometer 1 1
3 Air termometer 1 1
4 Pluviometer 1 1
Dam foundation system response
5 Teleformeters 140 121
6 Telepresmeters 10 9
7 Teletermeters in concrete 59 50
8 Direct pendulums 2 2
9 1 1
10 6 6
11 Dilatometers 16 16
12 Deformeters 11+6 17
13 Hydrometers pressure cells 11 11
14 Piezometer drillings 13 12
15 Manotriangulation network 1 1
 Concerning the data presented in Table 2, it may be remarked the reliability of the devices
equipping Strâmtori-Firiza dam-foundation system.
The frequency of measurements at devices depends of the type of the measurement and the
safety state of the dam and is setted by artificial regulation. The dam behavior is framed in
normal and abnormal behavior, the late having three steps: attention, alert and allarm states.The
frequency of measurements gradually increases versus the safety state of the dam. Moreover, in
the case of abnormal behavior of the dam, there are special procedures provided in regulation that
the operational staff from the dam must follow step by step.
The behavior of the dam along of all operation years, from 1965 till 2017 may be
characterized as a normal one.

4. Comparative case studies between statistical and neural networks methods

modelling some displacements at Strâmtori-Firiza dam
The horizontal displacements on X (bank-bank) and Y (upstream-downstream) recorded at
direct pendulums installed in blocks no. 6 and no. 1 from Strâmtori-Firizadam are processed by
statistical and neural networks methods mentioned previosly with the scope to compare their
accuracy.
Figure 2 presents longitudinal section through the dam axis and cross sections through the
blocks no. 1, no. 6 and no. 8 (overflow block).

Fig.2 Longitudinal section through the Strâmtori-Firiza dam axis and cross sections through
no.1, no. 6, and no. 8 blocks.
 Some results concerning EdF method application in processing the displacements measured
at direct pendulum from block no. 6 are shown in figures 3, 4 and 5.

Fig. 3. - Chronological series of the horizontal displacements on Y direction (upstream-

downstream) measered at the coordimeter from block no. 6 and computed by EdF method.

In compliance with graphs from figure 3 may be remarked that computed values are very
closed to measured values. The series of computed displacements has smaller amplitudes than
measured displacements, because the air temperature influence is considered by a reasonal
function.

Reservoir level influence reaches the maximum amplitude of 4 mm with displacements to

downstream for reservoir elevation from 350 mdMN to 370 mdMN. (fig 4a)
Air temperature influence, modelled as trigonometric function, reaches the maximum
amplitude of 6 mm in June month. (fig 4b)
Chronological series of the aging influence doesn’t show evolutive phenomena, the
maximum amplitude being 0,5mm. Accelerated evolution is linear one and dumped evolution is
asimpthotic to time axis.
Fig. 4 – Graphs with reservoir level, season and age influenses modelling Y displacements from
pendulum block no. 6, evaluated by EdF method.

Rh=-0.145 - partial report of h correlation

Rs=0.874 - partial report of s correlation
RT=0.02 - partial report of T correlation
R=0.914 - global report of correlation
syr=0.86 – residual standart deviation
eps=1.681 P=0.95
fγ1(γ1) = „Negative asymmetric distribution”
fγ2(γ2)= „Leptocurtica distribution”

Fig. 5 – Repartition cumulative curve of the chronological series from figure 3.

 Teoretic repartition curve is closed to empirical repartition curve. Repartition density curve
is very closed to well known Gauss curve. (fig 5)
Global coefficient of correlation for the previously application by EdF model is 0,914,
which is a good rate. Standard deviation is 0,86 for measured values series.
Similaire computation as those previously presented to process the displacement measured
at pendulum block 6 were repeated but with CONDOR method. The results were quasi
identically with those obtained by EdF method, some of them being illustrated in figures 6, 7 and
8.

Fig.6 – Chronological series of the horizontal displacements on Y direction measured at

the coordimeter from block no. 6 and computed by CONDOR method.

It may remark (fig 6 and 7) the values computed with CONDOR method are quasi
identical with their correspondents from EdF method, excepting aging influence which is linear
and with very small amplitude.
 Fig.7 – Graphs with reservoir level season and age influences modelling Y displacements
from pendulum block no. 6 evaluated by CONDOR method.

Rh=-0.144 - partial report of h correlation

Rs=0.874 - partial report of s correlation
RT=0.023 - partial report of T correlation
R=0.914 - global report of correlation
syr=0.86 – residual standart deviation
eps=1.68 P=0.95
fγ1(γ1) = „Negative asymmetric distribution”
fγ2(γ2)= „Leptocurtica distribution”

Fig.8 - Repartition cumulative curve of the chronological series from figure 6.

 Repartition cumulative curve corresponding to chronological series from figure 6 is quasi
identical with those computed by EdF method.
Global coefficient of correlation applying CONDOR model is 0.914 and standard deviation
0.860 versus 0.920 (0.830) for measured values series.
The method with air temperature integration that takes directly into account the
chronological series of air temperature, which are different from one to another year. The
temperature function is a series of a selected number of daily temperatures before the day
considered for measurement processing. Some results obtained by this method are illustrated in
figures 9, 10 and 11.

Fig.9 – Chronological series of the horizontal displacements on Y direction, measured at the

coordimeter from block no. 6 and computed by air temperature integration method.

Temperature integration Condor/EdF

Fig.10 – Water level influence computed by air temperature integration method versus those
computed by EdF/CONDOR methods.
 Fig.11 – Graphs of chronological series of influences (hydrostatic pressure, air temperature
aging) in air temperature influence method.

Chronological series measured/ computed with air temperature integration method of the Y
pendulum displacements from block no. 6 are very closed one/ another (fig. 9), global coefficient
of correlation being 0,931 higher than those computed by EdF/CONDOR methods (0,931).
Standard deviation for chronological series computed by air temperature method is 0.770 versus
0.860 for measured chronogical series.
Figure 10 points out that reservoir level influence resulted in air temperature method is
higher than in EdF/CONDOR methods, reaching 4,4 mm versus 4,4 mm. The shapes of curves
displacement/ reservoir level are very closed.
The amplitudes of displacements given by air temperature variation are positioned between
6 mm and 10,5 mm (fig. 11), versus maximum 6 mm in methods with seism influence expressed
by trigonometric function.

Rh=-0.121 - partial report of h correlation

Rs=0.888 - partial report of s correlation
RT=-0.026 - partial report of T correlation
R=0.931 - global report of correlation
syr=0.77 – residual standart deviation
eps=1.511 P=0.95
fγ1(γ1) = „Negative asymmetric distribution”
fγ2(γ2)= „Leptocurtica distribution”

Fig.12 – Repartition cumulative curve of the chronological series from figure 9.

 Repartition cumulative curve (fig. 12) corresponds to global correlation coefficient of
0,931, higher than 0,914 obtained by EdF/CONDOR methods.
Finally it may remark that air temperature integration method has better performances than
EdF/CONDOR methods.

Several testings were made concerning neural network scheme in order to find a scheme of
maximum rate. So, successively were tested different transfer functions being chosen. Sigmoidal
function network tipology with different hidden layer, number of neurons per layer, type of
interconnection (only forward), optimum density of interconnection.

Fig.13 - Structure of the artificial neural network used to predict pendulums displacements

Figure 13 illustrates the final scheme of the artificial neural network used to predict
pendulums displacements installed in blocks no. 6 and no. 1 from Strâmtori-Firiza dam. It
consists of two hidden layers, five input parameters (calendar date, hydrostatic level, daily
temperature, mobile average temperature – 3 days, mobile average temperature – 7 days) and two
output parameters (pendulum displacements on X and Y directions).
 Fig.14 - Errors evolution during neuronal network block no. 6 training.

Network training settles neurons weight in system. This operation can lead to wrong
solution and in order to avoid it, it is recommended to display permanently the evolution of errors
or of global correlation ratio. The evolution of errors during neural network training of block no.
6 shows that after 1 106 cycles the errors reaches 2%.

Fig.15 – Correlation measured/computed normed for block no. 6.

Correlation measured/computed for neural network block no. 6 (fig. 15) is made with
normalized variables as a unique series, althoug there are two output nodes.
 Fig.16 - Statistical data in neural network and weight of the main
input variable (T, h, t) – block no. 6.

In figure 16 are illustrated the final results of the neural network training block no. 6: node
1- bank- bank X direction and node 2- upstream- downstream Y direction, but the displacements
of pendulum on bank-bank direction are very small, reaching only 0,5 mm. Concerning the
weights of input parameters it may remark on X direction the maximum weight corresponds to
the hydrostatic pressure (47,64%) and on Y direction of temperature (77,41%)

Fig.17 - Chronological series computed with trained series.

 Chronological series computed with trained series from block no. 6 Y direction.
Chronological series computed for block no. 6, Y direction (fig. 17) is very closed of
training series (measured series). The result confirms the capacity of neural networks in concrete
dams field to model with accuracy the monitoring data.

Figura 18 - Contour lines of Y block no. 6 displacements function of reservoir level and time.

In figure 18 are presented contour lines of the displacements block no. 6, Y direction
function of time and reservoir elevation. It may remark the influence of hydrostatic pressure as
weight in displacements has increased in time.

Fig.19 - Contour lines of Y block no. 6 displacements function of daily average temperature and
reservoir level.
 Contour lines of the displacements block no. 6, Y direction function of daily average
temperature and reservoir elevation show the temperature influence is higher when the reservoir
level is higher. This result is explained because of temperature acting on dam downstream face
while upstream face is covered by reservoir water with lower temperatures than air.

Fig.20 – Comparative block no. 6, X direction time displacement variation

resulted by neural network.

Comparative analysis block no. 6, Y direction displacements in time function of reservoir

elevation computed by neural networks points out the displacements decreased in time versus
reservoir level (fig 20). For instance at 360 mdMN reservoir elevation the displacement was 2,25
in 1970 but it has decreased at 1,99 in 2010. The results confirms the consolidation in time of the
dam-foundation unitary system.

Fig.21 - Comparative analysis between reservoir elevation and block no. 6, Y direction,
displacements computed by neural network and statistical method
 Fig. 21 illustrates a comparative analysis between neural network and statistical method
concerning displacements function reservoir eleavation block no. 6, Y direction. The shape of
curves is similar but the corresponding values are significantly different. It may remark that an
analyse of the dam-foundation system by finite element method leds to results closer to neural
network.
Data presented previously emphaseises the performances of statistical of statistical methods
and neural network in modelling the displacement of concrete dams have the same degree of
accuracy. Consequently is very justified the neural networks to be commonly applied in this field.

5. Concluding remarks
A summary of the results obtained in case studies carried out in the frame of this paper is
presented in Table 3.
Table 3

X direction Y direction

Type of analyses Global Residual standard Global Residual standard

correlation deviation correlation deviation
coefficient computed-measured coefficient computed-measured

Displacement block no. 6

EdF statistical method 0.622 0.34 0.914 0.86
CONDOR statistical
0.626 0.33 0.920 0.83
method
Statistical method with air
0.644 0.307 0.931 0.77
temperature integration
Neural artificial network 0.639 0.312 0.920 0.83
Displacement block no. 1
EdF statistical method 0.916 0.59 0.744 0.32
CONDOR statistical
0.921 0.63 0.753 0.31
method
Statistical method with air
0.931 0.77 0.761 0.29
temperature integration
Neural artificial network 0.885 0.689 0.855 0.249

The resulting conclusion of the table available for concrete dams field is that an
approproate neural network perform equal to the most refinated statistical methods.
Typology of a neural network should be chosen taking into account the number of input
parameters with influence in response, number of hidden layers, density of the connections
between layers, number of neurons per layer etc. to build a high-performance network.
 References
1. Popovici A. - Dams for Water Storage Vol. 2 (in Romanian). Editura Tehnicǎ, Bucureşti
2002.
2. Ilinca C.- Aplicarea reţelelor neuronale şi a modelelor statistice în supravegherea
construcţiilor hidrotehnice (in Romanian). Teza de doctorat, U.T.C.B. , Bucureşti, 2003.
3. Ilinca C., Popovici A. – Some aspects concerning use of statistical models in hydraulic
structures surveyllance.
4. Mateescu O, Ilinca C – Prediction of seepage and piezometry at Motru dam using neural
network. Proceedings Seventh Benchmark Workshop in Numerical Analysis of Dams
ICOLD- Committee on Computation and Design of Dams, Bucharest, 2003.
5. Ayvaz M.T. (Turkey), Popovici A. (Romania) – Predicting level variation ar the
downstream of Motru dam (Romania) using hybrid HS-Solver optimization algorithm.
BALWOIS-2012. International Conference in Water, Climate and Environment. Ohrid ,
Macedonia, June, 2012.
6. Ayvaz M.T. (Turkey), Popovici A. (Romania) – Predicting seepage flow through an
earthfill dam-foundation system using an artificial neural network based solution
approach. Application to Motru dam site (Romania). Proceedings 6 th International
Perspective on Water Resources; the Environment Conference, Izmir, Turkey, January,
2013.
7. Popovici A., Ilinca C.(Romania), Ayvaz T. (Turkey) – The performance of the neural
networks to model some response parameters of a buttress dam to environment actions.
9th ICOLD European Club Symposium, Venice, April, 2013
8. Bobocu D., Ilinca C., Popovici A.- Aspects concerning surveyllance activity of the Gura
Râului Dam- Romania.Third Congres on Large Dams organised by Macedonian
Committee on Large Dams, Struga, June 2013.
9. Bohuş C – Studii comparative asupra acurateţei unor modele de prelucrare a datelor din
monitorizarea barajelor de beton (in Romanian). Tezǎ de doctorat, U.T.C.B. , Bucureşti,
2017.
Legend of figures

Fig. 1 Graphic representation of the Sigmoidal Function.

Photo 1 Downstream view of Strâmtori-Firiza dam.
Fig 2 Longitudinal section through the Strâmtori-Firiza dam axis and cross sections
through no.1, no. 6, and no. 8 blocks.
Fig 3 Chronological series of the horizontal displacements on Y direction (upstream-
downstream) measered at the coordimeter from block no. 6 and computed by EdF method.
Fig 4 Graphs with reservoir level, season and age influenses modelling Y displacements
from pendulum block no. 6, evaluated by EdF method.
Fig 5 Repartition cumulative curve of the chronological series from figure 3.
Fig 6 Chronological series of the horizontal displacements on Y direction measured at
the coordimeter from block no. 6 and computed by CONDOR method.
Fig 7 Graphs with reservoir level season and age influences modelling Y displacements
from pendulum block no. 6 evaluated by CONDOR method.
Fig 8 Repartition cumulative curve of the chronological series from figure 6.
Fig 9 Chronological series of the horizontal displacements on Y direction, measured at
the coordimeter from block no. 6 and computed by air temperature integration method.
Fig 10 Water level influence computed by air temperature integration method versus
those computed by EdF/CONDOR methods.
Fig 11 Graphs of chronological series of influences (hydrostatic pressure, air temperature
aging) in air temperature influence method.
Fig 12 Repartition cumulative curve of the chronological series from figure 9.
Fig 13 Structure of the artificial neural network used to predict pendulums displacements
Fig 14 Errors evolution during neuronal network block no. 6 training.
Fig 15 Correlation measured/computed normed for block no. 6.
Fig 16 Statistical data in neural network and weight of the main input variable (T, h, t) –
block no. 6.
Fig 17 Chronological series computed with trained series.
Fig 18 Contour lines of Y block no. 6 displacements function of reservoir level and time.
Fig 19 Contour lines of Y block no. 6 displacements function of daily average
temperature and reservoir level.
Fig 20 Comparative block no. 6, X direction time displacement variation resulted by
neural network.
Fig 21 Comparative analysis between reservoir elevation and block no. 6, Y direction,
displacements computed by neural network and statistical method.