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Nota: Para generar y actualizar los datos oprima f9, fn+f9 o ctrl+alt+f9
PERIODO
t DEMANDA REAL (unidades) At
1 �_1= 14261
2 �_2="18684 "
3 �_3= 18024
4 �_4= 10927
5 �_5= 12710
6 �_6= 16026
7 �_7="13727 "
8 �_8 "= 18275 "
9 �_9 = 17434
10 �_10= 12876
11 �_11= "18260 "
12 �_12= 18949
13 �_13= 18070
14 �_14="17556 "
15 �_15 = 17372
16 �_16 = 11992
17 �_17 =
18 18729
�_18 = 11446
�_�=�_(�−𝟏)+[α(𝑨_(�−𝟏)-�_(�−𝟏))]
Pr
α = Coeficiente de suavizacion
�=𝟐/(𝒏+𝟏)
α= 0.11 Pr
Pronostico Periodo 1 Pr
�_1=𝑁𝑜 𝑒𝑥𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑒
Pronostico Periodo 2
�_2= �_1
�_2= 14261 Pr
Pronostico Periodo 3
�_3=�_2+[α(�_2−�_2)]
�_3= 14261+[0.11(18684 -14261)]
�_3= Pr
14747.53
Pronostico Periodo 4
�_4=�_3 "+[α(" �_3−�_3)]
�_4= 14747.53+[0.11(18024-14747.53)]
�_4= 15107.94 Pr
Pronostico Periodo 5
�_5=�_4 "+[α(" �_4−�_4)]
�_5 = 15107.94+[0.11( 10927- 15107.94)]
�_5= 14648.04 Pr
Pronostico Periodo 6
�_6=�_5 "+[α(" �_5−�_5)]
�_6= 14648.04 +[0.11(12710 -
14648.04)]
�_6= 14343.85 Pr
Pronostico Periodo 7
�_7=�_6 "+[α(" �_6−�_6)]
�_7= "14343.85 "+[0.11(16026-"14343.85")
�_7= 14609.88 Pr
Pronostico Periodo 8
�_8=�_7 "+[α(" �_7−�_7)]
�_8=14609.88 +[0.11("13727-
14609.88"
�_8= )]
14512.76
" "Pronostico Periodo 9
�_9=�_8 "+[α(" �_8−�_8)]
�_9 = 14512.76 +[0.11( "18275
-"14512.76)]
�_9=14926.61
Pronostico Periodo 10 LA DENANDA FUTURA, PROYECTADA PAR
�_10=�_9 "+[α(" �_9−�_9)] PERIODOS.
�_10= 14926.61" +[0.11("17434 -
14926.6 )] PERIODO t
�_10= 14926.61
Pronostico Periodo 11 19
�_11=�_10 "+[α(" �_10−�_10)] 20
�_11=14926.61 +[0.11(12876- 14926.61 )] 21
�_11=14946.52 22
Pronostico Periodo 12 23
�_12=�_11 "+[α(" �_11−�_11)] 24
�_12 = 14946.52+ [0.11("18260 "- 25
14946.52)]
�_12=15311 26
Pronostico Periodo 13 27
�_13=�_12 "+[α(" �_12−�_12)] 28
�_13=15311+ [0.11(18949 -15311)] 29
�_13 = 15711.18 30
Pronostico Periodo 14 31
�_14=�_13 "+[α(" �_13−�_13)] 32
�_14= "15711.18+ [0.11(" 18070 - 15711.18)] 33
�_14=15970.65 34
Pronostico Periodo 15 35
�_15=�_14 "+[α(" �_14−�_14)] 36
�_15=15970.65+ [0.11("17556"-15970.65)]
�_15 = 16145.04
Pronostico Periodo 16
Periodo
�_16=�_15 "+[α(" �_15−�_15)]
�_16=16145.04+[0.11(17372-16145.04)] 1
�_16= "16280" 2
Pronostico Periodo 17 3
�_17=�_16 "+[α(" �_16−�_16)] 4
�_17= "16280"+[0.11("11992"−"16280")] 5
�_17 = 15808.32 6
Pronostico Periodo 18 7
�_18=�_17 "+[α(" �_17−�_17)] 8
�_18= 15808.32+[0.11(18729 -15808.32)] 9
�_18= 16129.6 10
Pronostico Periodo 19 11
�_19=�_18 "+[α(" �_18−�_18)] 12
�_19= 16129.6 + [0.11(11446 -16129.6)] 13
�_19= 15614,40 14
15
16
17
18
A DENANDA FUTURA, PROYECTADA PARA LOS SIGUIENTE 18
PERIODOS.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
DEMANDA REAL (Uni dades ) PERIODO t
DEMANDA FUTURO (UNIDADES) Ft
RELACION DE LA DEMANDA REAL
Nota: Para generar y actualizar los datos oprima f9, fn+f9 o ctrl+alt+f9
PERIODO
t DEMANDA REAL (unidades) At
1 �_1= 14261
2 �_2="18684 "
3 �_3= 18024
4 �_4= 10927
5 �_5= 12710
6 �_6= 16026
7 �_7="13727 "
8 �_8 "= 18275 "
9 �_9 = 17434
10 �_10= 12876
11 �_11= "18260 "
12 �_12= 18949
13 �_13= 18070
14 �_14="17556 "
15 �_15 = 17372
16 �_16 = 11992
17 �_17 =
18 18729
�_18 = 11446
Comprobación de resultados en el software Win QSB
PRONOSTICO DE SUAVISACION EXPONENCIAL DOBLE.
𝑨_�=α 𝑫_�+[(1-α)(𝑨_(�−𝟏)+𝑻_(�−𝟏))]
𝑻_�=𝜷(𝑨_�−𝑨_(�−𝟏) )+(𝟏−𝜷)𝑻_(�−𝟏)
�_(�−𝟏)=𝑨_�+𝑻_�
�=𝟎.𝟏𝟏 α 0.11
β 0.22
𝜷=2α
Pronostico Periodo 1
�_1=�� ������
Pronostico Periodo 2
�_2 "= " �_1
�_2 "= 14261 " 14261
�_� "=α " �_� "+[(1-α)(" �_(�−1)+�_(�−1))] �_�=�(�_�−�_(�−1) )+(1−�)�_(�−1)
Pronostico Periodo 3 14985 813.52
Pronostico Periodo 4 17049.81 750.49
Pronostico Periodo 5 17688.6 540.15
Pronostico Periodo 6 18266.05 572.93
Pronostico Periodo 7 19173.91 638.4
Pronostico Periodo 8 19787.29 559.21
Pronostico Periodo 9 20763 656.35
Pronostico Periodo 10 21625.32 610.03
Pronostico Periodo 11 21850.18 479.99
Pronostico Periodo 12 22526.81 607.98
Pronostico Periodo 13 23318.71 605.18
Pronostico Periodo 14 23924.32 564.81
Pronostico Periodo 15 24370.85 538.7
Pronostico Periodo 16 24724.78 524.07
Pronostico Periodo 17 24434.9 385.66
Pronostico Periodo 18 24794.82 559.05
Pronostico Periodo 19 24468.36 369.9
DEMANDA
Periodo REAL PERIODO t DEMANDA FUTURO
(UNIDADES) Ft La demanda real Vs la de
(Unidades)
1 14261 19 14261
2 18684 20 16205.41
3 18024 21 17800.3
4 10927 22 18228.75
5 12710 23 18838.98 231
22330.17
22235.35
6 16026 24 19812.31 21419.35
7 13727 25 20346.5 20346.5
19812.31
18684 18838.98
18228.75
18024 18275 18
17800.3 17434
16205.41 16026
231
22330.17
22235.35
21419.35
20346.5
19812.31
8 18275 26 21419.35 18838.98
18684
9 17434 27 22235.35 18228.75
18024 18275 18
17800.3 17434
10 12876 28 22330.17
16205.41 16026
11 18260 29 23134.79
12 18949 30 23923.89 14261
13727
13 18070 31 24489.13 12710 12876
14 17556 32 24909.55
15 17372 33 25248.85 10927
16 11992 34 24820.56 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
17 18729 35 25353.87 DEMANDA REAL (Uni da des)
18 11446 36 24838.26 DEMANDA FUTURO (UNIDAD
�_(�−1)=�_�+�_�
15798.52
17800.3
18228.75
18838.98
19812.31
20346.5
21419.35
22235.35
22330.17
23134.79
23923.89
24489.13
24909.55
25248.85
24820.56
25353.87
24838.26
25248.85 25353.87
24909.55
24489.13 24820.56 24838.26
23923.89
23134.79
22330.17
22235.35
21419.35
20346.5
19812.31
18838.98 18949 18729
28.75 18275 18260 18070
17434 1755617372
16026
24489.13
23923.89
23134.79
22330.17
22235.35
21419.35
20346.5
19812.31
18838.98 18949 18729
28.75 18275 18260 18070
17434 1755617372
16026
13727
12710 12876
11992
11446
927
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
TIEMPO DE
REFERENCIA DEMANDA FUTURA (periodica) ESPERA (dias)
Nota: Para generar y actualizar los datos oprima f9, fn+f9 o ctrl+alt+f9
Tiempo de
Varianza
Dispositivo espera L
4160628.65 6.472
Dispositivo
5189.1799557404 1.645
B
20
21
ma f9, fn+f9 o ctrl+alt+f9 22
23
24
25
O Dt
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
o de preparacion por periodo Cantidad optima de
Costo de retencion unitario H
k periodo
95740
97359
98542
97031
96018
96635
96341
97738
98664
2079915 6.472
97847
99055
100361
101203
101767
102204
100720
104859
100720
3294.6199002963
5189.1799557404
Exigencia de
reserva
8536.201027193
Nivel del
inventario
11830.820927489
QSB
Politicas del inventario
Dispositivos
Cantidad Nivel de
optima de inventario
pedido Qt
95740
97359
98542
97031
96018 Unidades
Politicas de 96635 siempre que
inventario el nivel del 11830.8209 Unidades
optimo 96341 inventario
97738 se reduzca
98664
97847
99055
100361
101203
101767
102204
100720
104859
100720
REFERENCIAS
Monks, J. (1988). Administración de operaciones (pp. 243-247).
Naucalpan de Juárez, México: Editorial McGraw-Hill
Interamericana. Recuperado de
https://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2538/lib/unadsp/reader.acti
on?ppg=61&docID=3196010&tm=1541110436872