SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.98
R Square 0.97
Adjusted R Square 0.93
Standard Error 68.80
Observations 10.00

ANOVA
df SS MS F
Regression 5.00 614,128.40 122,825.68 25.95
Residual 4.00 18,931.60 4,732.90
Total 9.00 633,060.00

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value

Intercept 8,764.75 413.74 21.18 0.00
Seasonal Demand Bump (1=Yes) 80.11 95.99 0.83 0.45
Price per unit (1,121.10) 266.12 (4.21) 0.01
Change in Price 1,128.80 460.64 2.45 0.07
Variation in Demand 0.22 0.45 0.49 0.65
Forecast Error 0.49 0.56 0.87 0.43

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted Demand Residuals Standard Residuals

1.00 7,083.10 51.90 1.13
2.00 6,947.66 (2.66) (0.06)
3.00 7,553.94 (18.94) (0.41)
4.00 7,246.79 13.21 0.29
5.00 6,920.05 (25.05) (0.55)
6.00 7,086.06 18.94 0.41
7.00 6,661.64 68.36 1.49
8.00 6,695.08 (45.08) (0.98)
9.00 6,949.82 25.18 0.55
10.00 6,885.86 (85.86) (1.87)
 Seasonal Demand Bump (1=Yes) Residual P
100.00
50.00

Residuals
-
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
(50.00)
(100.00)
Seasonal Demand Bump (1=Yes)
Significance F
0.00
Change in Price Residual Plot
100.00

Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% 50.00

Residuals
7,616.03 9,913.47 7,616.03 9,913.47 -
(186.39) 346.61 (186.39) 346.61 ($0.30) ($0.20) ($0.10) $0.00 $0.10 $0.20 $
(50.00)
(1,859.98) (382.22) (1,859.98) (382.22) (100.00)
(150.14) 2,407.74 (150.14) 2,407.74
Change in Price
(1.04) 1.48 (1.04) 1.48
(1.07) 2.05 (1.07) 2.05 Forecast Error Residua
100.00
50.00
Residuals
-
-600 -400 -200 0 200
(50.00)
(100.00)
Forecast Error
Bump (1=Yes) Residual PlotPrice per unit Residual Plot
100.00
50.00
Residuals
-
0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 $1.20 $1.30 $1.40 $1.50 $1.60 $1.70 $1.80 $1.90
(50.00)
(100.00)
onal Demand Bump (1=Yes) Price per unit

Variation in Demand Residual Plot

Price Residual Plot
100.00 100.00

50.00 50.00
Residuals

- -
$0.10) $0.00 $0.10 $0.20 -600
$0.30 -400 -200
(50.00)
0 200 400 600 800
(50.00)
(100.00) (100.00)
Change in Price Variation in Demand

orecast Error Residual Plot

100.00
50.00
-
-400 -200 0 200 400 600
(50.00)
(100.00)
Forecast Error
Demand Driven Forecast Analysis - Apparel Industry

Period Seasonal Demand Bump (1=Yes) Price per unit

Winter 14 0 $1.50
Spring 14 0 $1.50
Summer 14 1 $1.25
Fall 14 0 $1.40
Winter 14 0 $1.65
Spring 14 1 $1.65
Summer 14 0 $1.75
Fall 14 0 $1.80
Winter 16 0 $1.60
Spring 16 0 $1.60

Estimate Demand Forecast Using:

a Naïve
b Simple Moving Average
c Exponential Smoothing
d Regression Analysis

Extention to part d: Discuss the significance of Price, Change in Price, Forecast Error, Variation in Demand in

Part A: Population Regression Equation

Part B: Observation on the expected signs of the coefficients
Part C: Estimated multiple regression equation (Sales)
Part D: Interpretation of estimated coefficients
Part E: Comments on the utility of the model using R squared
Part F: Determine the overall significance of the model (F Test)
Part G: Testing the significance of the coefficients of the model
Part H: Predicting sales volume through addition predictor variables
 Variation in Moving Exponential
Change in Price Forecast Error Demand Naïve
Demand Avg Smoothing
$0.00 0 0 7,135 0 0 0
$0.00 -190 -190 6,945 7,135 7,135
($0.25) 590 533 7,535 6,945 7,002
$0.15 -275 -115 7,260 7,535 7,375
$0.25 -365 -400 6,895 7,260 1,805 7,295
$0.00 210 90 7,105 6,895 1,790 7,015
$0.10 -375 -348 6,730 7,105 1,800 7,078
$0.05 -80 -184 6,650 6,730 1,749 6,834
($0.20) 325 270 6,975 6,650 1,711 6,705
$0.00 -175 -94 6,800 6,975 1,716 6,894

Price, Forecast Error, Variation in Demand in relation to Demand (Dependent Variable)

s of the coefficients
uation (Sales)

odel using R squared

e of the model (F Test)
efficients of the model
addition predictor variables
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 1.00
R Square 1.00
Adjusted R Square 1.00
Standard Error 0.00
Observations 10.00

ANOVA
df SS MS
Regression 6.00 8,804,000.00 1,467,333.33
Residual 3.00 0.00 0.00
Total 9.00 8,804,000.00

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat

Intercept 2,500.00 0.00 2,911,521,480,353,740.00
Net Requirments (1.00) 0.00 (4,968,989,255,021,421.00)
Planned Release 0.17 0.00 673,297,949,944,126.00
Planned Receipts (0.00) 0.00 (0.57)
Scheduled Receipts (0.25) 0.00 (787,555,070,316,445.00)
Beginning Inv 1.00 0.00 4,091,430,413,675,082.00
Projected Available Balance (1.00) 0.00 (4,200,421,868,312,880.00)
 F Significance F
12,487,463,618,024,000,000,000,000,000,000.00 0.00

P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
0.00 2,500.00 2,500.00 2,500.00 2,500.00
0.00 (1.00) (1.00) (1.00) (1.00)
0.00 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17
0.61 (0.00) 0.00 (0.00) 0.00
0.00 (0.25) (0.25) (0.25) (0.25)
0.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
0.00 (1.00) (1.00) (1.00) (1.00)
Demand Driven Forecast Analysis - Apparel Industry B/S

Planned
Period Net Requirments Release
Winter 14 0 0
Spring 14 0 0
Summer 14 0 3000
Fall 14 -2000 3000
Winter 14 -1000 3000
Spring 14 0 3000
Summer 14 -500 0
Fall 14 -600 3000
Winter 16 -100 3000
Spring 16 0 3000

Estimate Demand Forecast Using:

a Naïve
b Simple Moving Average
c Exponential Smoothing
d Regression Analysis

Extention to part d: Discuss the significance of Price, Change in Price, Forecast Error, Variation in Demand in

Part A: Population Regression Equation

Part B: Observation on the expected signs of the coefficients
Part C: Estimated multiple regression equation (Sales)
Part D: Interpretation of estimated coefficients
Part E: Comments on the utility of the model using R squared
Part F: Determine the overall significance of the model (F Test)
Part G: Testing the significance of the coefficients of the model
Part H: Predicting sales volume through addition predictor variables
 3000 L.T 2

Scheduled
Planned Receipts Beginning Inv Projected Available Balance Gross
Receipts Requirement
3000 0 2500 2,000 3,000
3000 2,000 2,000 600 3,400
3000 0 600 0 3,600
3000 0 0 0 5,000
0 0 0 0 4,000
3000 0 0 0 3,000
3000 2,000 0 0 2,500
3000 0 0 0 3,600
0 0 0 0 3,100
0 0 0 1,800 1,200

Price, Forecast Error, Variation in Demand in relation to Demand (Dependent Variable)

s of the coefficients
uation (Sales)

odel using R squared

e of the model (F Test)
efficients of the model
addition predictor variables