Electricity Crisis in Pakistan

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Electricity Crisis in Pakistan - Document Transcript

1. Pakistan Electric Power Crisis and its Possible Solutions TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY....................................................................................2
1.INTRODUCTION ..........................................................................................2 2.INTENSITY OF EXISTING POWER
CRISIS ...................................................3 3.FACTORS WHICH LED TO EXISTING POWER
SHORTAGE..............................4 4.EFFECTS OF THIS CRISIS.............................................................................5
4.1.Effects on People .....................................................................................5
2. 4.2.Effects on Economy..................................................................................6 5.SOLUTIONS TO END POWER
SHORTAGE......................................................6 5.1.Energy Conservation
Measures...................................................................6 5.
3. 2. Short Term Measures................................................................................8 5.
4. 3.Long Term Measures.................................................................................8 6.
CONCLUSION..............................................................................................9
BIBLIOGRAPHY.............................................................................................10

Pakistan Electric Power Crisis and its Possible Solutions

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The recent electric power shortage crisis in Pakistan is affecting economy and various people and the situation is getting
worse day by day. Although only 46 percent of the population of the country has the facility of electricity but still the
government is unable to manage a steady power to them. Poor planning, recent climatic changes, oil prices and politics are
the primarily responsible for todays severe crisis. The economy and subsequently people are badly effected by this crisis
with loss of huge capital and degrading health. The solution to the current crisis lies in energy conservation al all levels in
the country. However the use of alternate energy such as wind turbine and solar power can be utilized to immediately reduce
the shortage, while electricity generation projects from coal and large dams can provide a long term solution to electricity
shortage.

1. INTRODUCTION

Pakistan Electric Power Crisis and its Possible Solutions Pakistan is in the grip of a serious power shortage crisis that is
affecting all sectors of the economy and the various segments of the society. As we write this report, the country is plunging
deeper and deeper into the crisis; the electricity shortfall has hit the record level. This situation has pushed the people of
Pakistan to bear the burden of 8 to 16 hours load shedding, which might further increase in the future.

2. INTENSITY OF EXISTING POWER CRISIS

Pakistan is experiencing these shortages despite its miserly electricity use with per capita consumption of 546-kilowatt hours
per year, a fifth of the global average of 2,586-kilowatt hours, according to statistics from the South Asia Association for
Regional Cooperation. Also the fact that electrical power shortages are so sever in Pakistan where only approximately forty-
six percent of the population has access to it. Pakistan's electricity production was nearly 3,000 Mega Watts (MW) short of
demand in March. The authorities (see Appendix ‘A’) tried to make up the difference by turning off lights, and everything
else, for several hours a day. The electricity shortfall has hit the record level of 7,075 MW in July owing to the forced
shutdown of many units of power generation plants following the severe fuel scarcity. This power shortage crisis is likely to
continue for several years even if the steps are taken to reduce it on war-footing basis. Below mentioned data show that the
gap between demand and supply of electrical power will increase in the future. ` A cartoon in newspaper criticizing KESC
Page 3 of 11
Table 1 Power Generation Power Consumption Year Power Deficit (Projected) (Projected) 2009 15,032 MW 18,715 MW
3,683 MW 2010 17,378 MW 20,345 MW 2,977 MW 2011 18,831 MW 22,116 MW 3,285 MW 2012 22,898 MW 24,041
MW 1,143 MW 2013 23,311 MW 26,133 MW 2,822 MW 2014 24,022 MW 28,408 MW 4,386 MW 2015 25,433 MW
30,881 MW 5,448 MW Source: Pakistan Energy Year Book 2007 3. FACTORS WHICH LED TO EXISTING POWER
SHORTAGE An important question in the midst of ongoing power shortage crisis, being raised is that why the energy crisis
looms on our head despite the fact that statistics, demand and consumption are well articulated. According to the statistics
published on Jul 2 2004 in Energy Bulletin the gap between firm supply and peak hours demand has shrunk to three digit
(440 MW) during this year(2004) and will slip into negative columns next year (-441 MW) and further intensify to (-1,457
MW) during the year 2007. All this data was readily available to all concerned government, so the answer to the above
question is evident but there are some other factors which turned the existing power crisis into worse than expected. Some of
these factors are discussed below: • Pakistan's 19,500 megawatts of production capacity, more than 60 percent is from
imported furnace oil and domestic natural gas power plants. Hydropower generated from the country's two major dams
accounts for about 30 percent, and its one nuclear power plant produces less than five percent. Page 4 of 11

The primary trigger although not the long-term cause of the power cuts was a dry December. The low rainfall reduced the
water in the dams, reducing the total power output from all major hydro electric dams. There are also restrictions on water
release; because dams are also irrigation reservoir, there are restrictions on the amount of water it can release for electricity
generation. Even when the rains came, and the electricity supply increased, that did not guarantee that the power would stay
on. •

Another short term factor was that transmission towers and natural gas supply infrastructure have been blown up by the
terrorists particularly in Baluchistan from where most of the gas is supplied to the power plants. •

The rising prices of oil products is also a major cause of power disruption in Pakistan where more than 60 percent of
electricity is generated from furnace oil. WAPDA and other independent power producers were having problems because
they were unable to pay for oil from oil marketing companies.

• Transmission losses (i.e. power theft) are thirty to thirty-eight percent, as opposed to the ten percent which might be
expected through unavoidable line losses inherent in the distribution system. So, even if the power distribution companies
are able to completely remove the theft during transmission (the popular “KUNDA” system), 25 percent electricity could be
saved and the crisis will end.

• A long term cause of the existing power breakdown is that government regulated tariffs on retail electricity prices kept
revenues too low to make it worthwhile for utilities to invest in their delivery or generation infrastructure, preventing the
network from keeping up with rising demand and unable to catch up.

4. EFFECTS OF THIS CRISIS

4.1.Effects on People The household sector been the largest consumer of electricity accounting for 44.2 per cent of total
electricity consumption this crisis has Page 5 of 11 A boy studying in the light of lantern

literally paralyzed the cities and villages and made life hell for the citizens.Not complete sleep that effect on student studys
As a result, the house holds which are connected to the grid are going without electricity at average six hours of outages that
are occurring per day this month. The daily load shedding was at first unscheduled, which increased the disruption and
negative effects. Crowds protested in the streets of all major cities due to the discontent caused by the power cuts. Police
have also reported increased crime during the blackouts in bigger cities. Power outages are one of the factors of wheat
shortage in the country. Mills could not operate at capacity because of power cuts, which caused a rise in prices and long
queues for purchasing the flour. Water supplies were also affected, as pumping and purification stations shut down. If labour
and employees have not enough sleep in night there work also distrb and they do not give effect work Short term
effects could be: Irritability, acne, loss/increase in appetite, mild depression,
craving fatty-sugary foods, among others. The longer you go without enough
sleep, the more stressed your body
 4.2.Effects on Economy The economy of Pakistan is very badly effected by the crisis halting major trade and economic and
agricultural activities. The industries consume 31.1 percent, agriculture 14.3 percent and commercial sector 5.5 percent of
total consumption of the country. The factories having to shut down during the outages, international and domestic orders
cannot be fulfilled due to reduced production. Business activity is reduced due to communication and infrastructure shutout.
The production and sale of electrical appliances has decreased as a result of the crisis that causes reduse in gst taxes
Without taxes we wouldn't be able to build schools, roads and other
educational/transportation stations. and reduction in production cause people
are losing their jobs

Wind turbine

Gharo Wind Power Plant is planned to be built in the persistently wind-swept corridor of Gharo, Sindh, Pakistan. This will be
one of the first wind power project in Pakistan.

The turbine manufacturer of Germany and Access Energy Inc of United States have signed an agreement with Alternative Energy
Development Board (AEDB) of Pakistan, to manufacture wind turbines in Pakistan to help establish wind power projects. US-
based Access Energy would finance the project to set up a 50 MW wind power plant

Malaysian firm wins $75m Pakistan wind-power project

via www.btimes.com.my

The project — to be developed on a build, own and operate-basis for 20 years — is estimated for completion within 18 months.

The wind-powered power plant will be located in the Bin Qasim, outskirts of Karachi. ‘The Government of Pakistan intends to
purchase the 50 MW of power to be generated from the power plant.’ Meanwhile, AEDB has given approval for the
commencement of civil construction work for the 50 MW wind farm power plant immediately.

jhimpir Project

In October 15, 2008, a Turkish company was reportedly close to completing the first windmill in Pakistan.[3] The Jhimpir Wind
Power Plant

Five wind turbines in Jhimpir, 70 km from Karachi are being developed by Zorlu Enerji Pakistan the local subsidiary of a Turkish
company. Total cost of the project is $110 million.

Zorlu Enerji is reported to have completed five wind turbines in Jhimpir, each capable of producing 1.2 megawatts of electricity.
Though initially 6MW of electricity will be produced by the company, the project will be expanded to 50MW in the next few
years.

rental power projects

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

The establishment of 14 rental power projects (RPPs) will not be able to reduce the load
shedding in 2010. If gas is available for all the gas-based plants, there would be about 850
megawatts (MW) difference in load shedding during 2011-13, with the eight RPPs or 14 RPPs.
The difference is projected to be 563MW in 2011 and zero in 2012-13. Moreover, if minimum
gas of 100 MMCFD to KAPCO and GTPS Faisalabad would not be supplied, the shortage would
further increase to 700MW.

The country is facing long power outrages, but the amount allocated (Rs 114 billion) in the
budget 2010-11, is 28 percent less than the previous year. Of the total, Water and Power
Development Authority (WAPDA) and Pakistan Electric Power Company (PEPCO) will
generate Rs 100 billion, including loans from international financial institutions (IFIs) World
Bank and Asian Development Bank (ADB).

n 2009 the government had approved plans to set up RPPs The Economic Co-ordination
Committee had directed the Water and Power Ministry to arrange 2,200MW from 14 RPPs to
eliminate load shedding. The total deficit is about 5,000MW. It has been planned that after
starting RPPs production the power tariff would immediately be raised by 6 percent.

The latest information indicated an example of favoritism that a 150 megawatt rental power plant
(RPP) was installed by Techno E-Power at Faisalabad, used furnace oil valuing Rs225 million
provided by the government but yet not able to supply power to the national transmission system.
The reason is that the plant is over age, manufactured by China in 1958, and obsolete in
technology. Therefore, it failed to start production in its first and second trial production test.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has declined to approve water and power ministry’s
plans for 2250MW capacity addition through 14 rental power projects saying it would need
31 to 45 per cent increase in consumer tariff and consume more than $5 billion (Rs420
billion) of nation’s foreign exchange in five years.

The government’s maddening push to project Rs200 billion rental power project as a recipe to
end load-shedding in Pakistan by the year end is based on special interest by important
government personalities backed by some sponsors of these financially and technically doubtful
projects, according to an investigation by this correspondent.1

While the MCB and Allied Bank of Pakistan strongly resisted the government’s pressure to
finance rental power projects, the rental power backers in the government used the government
muscle to make several banks agree to provide 14 per cent advance payment worth Rs21 billion
to rental projects against sovereign guarantees by the government of Pakistan.

Long term project

Chinese Company Three Gorges has announced to invest in two hydro power projects in
Pakistan, SAMAA reported Wednesday. Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari has met with
Chairman of Three Gorges Corporation Cao Guangjing. After the meeting, Cao Guangjing while
giving a briefing to media he said that his company Three Gorges has agreed to invest more than
[$ 10 billion] in two hydro power projects in Pakistan. For this purpose at the point of Bunji in
Gilgit Baltistan, a dam of 7,000 MW, whereas 12, 00 MW dam at Kohalla will be constructed.
Zardari s visit aims at strengthening strategic partnership will also promote economic and trade
cooperation and enhance cultural ties between the two countries.Ltd. Hydroworld

Pakistan Tribune however reports the investment size to be $10 billion

Natural Gas

Pakistan Energy Supply Mix, 2005. (Source: Pakistan Energy Yearbook, 2005)

According to OGJ, Pakistan had 28 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of proven natural gas reserves in
2006. The bulk of these reserves are located in the southern half of Pakistan. In 2004,

Sourses

http://news.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/the-newspaper/front-page/13+adb-finds-rpp-deals-faulty-
010-za-08
http://66.219.30.205/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/in-paper-magazine/economic-and-business/rental-plants-
generate-more-debate-than-power-860

http://news.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/the-newspaper/front-page/13+adb-declines-to-approve-
plans-rental-plants-to-cause-steep-rise-in-power-tariff-810-za-09

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2010\06\29\story_29-6-2010_pg5_17

http://www.wikimir.com/rental-power-projects-of-pakistan

http://www.slideshare.net/asharahmed/electricity-crisis-in-pakistan

5. SOLUTIONS TO END POWER SHORTAGE

In view of existing ground realities and statistics mentioned in Table 1, it is impossible to overcome the crisis by short term
measures. As we implement short term measures to reduce the crisis the energy would have increased more and the short
term measures would look like nothing. In order to address this crisis a three dimension parallel implementation measures
are required. These are: 1. Energy conservation measures 2. Short term measures 3. Long term measures

5.1.Energy Conservation Measures

Pakistan Electric Power Crisis and its Possible Solutions There are no immediate solutions to generating additional power
through any source because a unit takes at least 2-3years to establish a thermal power plant and more than 5 years are
required to construct a hydroelectric dam and the investment is enormous. So, energy conservation or efficient use of
electricity is what is needed at this crucial time. We should make the best use of existing power generation by taking
conservation measures at individual, community and national level. The major users of electricity need to be educated and
motivated to play their role in energy conservation. They are: industrial sector and domestic/household sector. Each sector
needs to be dealt separately to highlight the benefits of conserving energy. Domestic/household sector consumes around 21
An Energy Saver per cent of electricity produced in the country. This sector could be efficient by 30 per cent by avoiding
wasteful habits of consuming energy such as keeping markets fully lit etc. A positive development that has so far taken
place in this sector is gradual shifting over to use of energy savers. Similarly energy could be saved by minimum use of air
conditioners. The entire household should be well-aware of energy consumption. The Industrial sector is consuming the
largest amount of energy in the country. It consumes around 45 per cent of the total commercial energy. Most of them are
concentrated in a few industrial areas close to or within large cities such as Karachi, Lahore and other cities. Industrial units
are not energy efficient and management practices need improvement to make efficient use of electricity. A study carried out
by an agency ENERCON reveals that efficient use of electricity by the industrial sector could save up to 23 per cent of
electricity. The focus on energy conservation is on the improvement of steam distribution systems, air conditioning,
refrigeration and modernizing and revamping energy efficient combustion processes and controls. A comprehensive plan
should be developed to raise awareness in the masses through a campaign in print and electronic media. Some financial
benefits to the consumers of power should also be given if they cut their power to a certain extent. Power crisis is not
something new in the world. In 2000-01, US state of Page 7 of 11

Pakistan Electric Power Crisis and its Possible Solutions California introduced a plan to reduce the power crisis, further
New Zealand, Australia, Argentina, Brazil and even Sri Lanka have done it successfully.

5.2.Short Term Measures The following short term measures can be taken immediately in order to reduce the intensity of
existing power crisis:

• With power needed immediately, wind turbines look good because they are relatively fast to install whereas dams and
nuclear power plants take five to six years to complete and thermal power plants need two years at least. Wind power can
play a big part of solving Pakistan's energy shortages, and now that comprehensive wind maps have already been researched
in the country. Immediate measure should be taken to install A Wind Turbine wind turbines especially in the already
identified wind corridors of Karachi, Thatta, Gharo and Thar. The wind turbines are also a viable solution considering cost
and environment. • Government authorities should ensure overhauling all of the countries existing power plants to achieve
maximum generation as well as prevent it from overloading which has been a source of power outages. This can be done by
periodically shutting down one plant at a time for maintenance and overhauling in order to avoid overloading on other
power plants. • Relaxing duties and taxes on energy conserving electrical devices, such as energy saver lamps, LED lights,
solar operated devices and wind turbines.

5.3.Long Term Measures The following long term measures should be taken keeping in view the projected increase in
power consumption in the future:

Pakistan Electric Power Crisis and its Possible Solutions

• Pakistan has estimated as the world's third-largest known coal reserves of 33.0 trillion tons in the south-eastern part of the
country i.e. Thar. The answer to long term solution of power crisis in Pakistan lies in using local coal for power generation.
The electricity production from coal is also cheaper than thermal generation.

• In the long-term, Pakistan should also build more nuclear plants and dams.

• Rehabilitation and replacement of the outdated transmission and distribution systems is also a long term measure through
which the country can overcome the perennial problem of line losses and thefts by unscrupulous consumers. All of the
above mentioned measures if implemented with commitment and honesty of purpose can help our country and people to
over come negative implications of power crisis. 6.

CONCLUSION It hardly needs to be emphasized that electricity is the lifeline of national economy and the people at large.
The Economy and public life practically come to a halt because of the load shedding. The existing crisis can be addressed by
the government by taking prompt measures and by public by taking energy conservation measures. There is hardly any room
for neglect or delay now. Page 9 of 11