FORT GREEN

WORLD
MAHAM IBRAHIM L1F11BBAM2024
AHSAN EJAZ L1F11BBAM2164

SUBMITTED TO : PROF. EESHA TARIQ

SECTION : B
SUBJECT : FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
QUESTION 1
(A) Calculation of NPV of modernizing the existing paper mill:

If actual cash flows are used

Investment required for the modernization = $154,700,000

Required rate of return = 12%

Yearly cash flow after tax deduction = $40,634,680 (for 20 years)

Net present value = C0 + present value of all future cash flows of 20 years

NPV = 303,518,451.5 - 154,700,000

NPV = $148,818,451.5

(B) Calculation of NPV for building a new paper mill

Investment required for the modernization = $618,800,000

Required rate of return = 12%

Yearly cash flow after tax deduction = $107,728,000 ( for 20 years)

NPV = 804,668,222.8 - 618,800,000

NPV = $185,868,222.8

With Incremental Cash Flows

(A) Calculation of NPV of modernizing the existing paper mill:

Investment required for the modernization = $154,700,000

Required rate of return = 12%

Yearly cash flow after tax deduction = $40,634,680 (for 20 years)

Incremental cash flow= $ 40,634,680- $ 11,422,320 = $29,212,360

Net present value = C0 + present value of all future cash flows of 20 years
Casio calculator

a) Cash button
b) I% = 12%
c) Cash= D.editor x

X
1 -154700000
2 29,212,360
3 29,212,360
4 29,212,360
5 29,212,360
6 29,212,360
7 29,212,360
8 29,212,360
9 29,212,360
10 29,212,360
11 29,212,360
12 29,212,360
13 29,212,360
14 29,212,360
15 29,212,360
16 29,212,360
17 29,212,360
18 29,212,360
19 29,212,360
20 29,212,360
21 29,212,360
 d) NPV = solve
e) NPV = $ 63,500,076.15
(B) Calculation of NPV for building a new paper mill

Investment required for the modernization = $618,800,000

Required rate of return = 12%

Yearly cash flow after tax deduction = $107,728,000 ( for 20 years)

Incremental cash flow =$107,728,000 - $ 11,422,320 = $ 96,305,680

Net present value = C0 + present value of all future cashflows of 20 years

Casio calculator

a) Cash button
b) I% = 12%
c) Cash= D.editor x

X
1 -618,800,000
2 96,305,680
3 96,305,680
4 96,305,680
5 96,305,680
6 96,305,680
7 96,305,680
8 96,305,680
9 96,305,680
10 96,305,680
11 96,305,680
12 96,305,680
13 96,305,680
14 96,305,680
15 96,305,680
16 96,305,680
17 96,305,680
18 96,305,680
19 96,305,680
20 96,305,680
21 96,305,680

d) NPV = solve
e) NPV = $ 100,549,850

This shows that NPV of new paper mill is higher than that of modernization of the existing
facility. Thus, using NPV rule demonstrates that new facility is better for the firm.

QUESTION 2:
With Incremental Cash flows
(A) Calculation of IRR of each investment
 IRR of Modernization of existing mill :
Using the Casio calculator where the cash flows and the initial investment was entered we move
on to the

IRR = solve

IRR = 18.219%

 IRR of new paper mill:

Using the Casio calculator where the cash flows and the initial investment was entered we move
on to the

IRR = solve

IRR = 14.531%

According to IRR rule the firm should invest in the modernization of the existing paper mill as it
has a higher IRR .

(B) Calculation of the payback period of each investment

 Payback period of Modernization of existing mill :

Initial investment / annual cash flows

= $154,700,000/$40,634,680

= 3.807 years

 Payback period of new paper mill:

Initial investment / annual cash flows

= $618,800,000/$107,728,000

= 5.744 years

According to payback rule the investment made in the modernization of existing paper mill will
be recovered earlier then the investment in the new paper mill.
 IRR With Actual Cash flows

 IRR of Modernization of existing mill :

Investment= $154,700,000

Cash flows= $40,634,680

IRR = SOLVE

IRR=26.01%

 IRR of New Paper Mill

Investment= $618,800,000

Cash flows= $107,728,000

IRR= SOLVE

IRR= 16.60%
QUESTION 3:
(A) NPV and IRR methods give the same accept / reject signals:
No, NPV and IRR methods do not give the same accept/ reject signals. NPV accepts the
investment in building a new paper mill while IRR method accepts the investment in the
modernization of the existing paper mill.
(B) NPV and IRR methods can give divergent signals when evaluating mutually
exclusive alternatives:
In mutually exclusive projects, all projects serve the same purpose and therefore such
projects cannot be undertaken simultaneously. In case of mutually exclusive projects only
one project can be accepted and the others are to be rejected. In case of such projects the
cash flows of one project can actually be adversely affected by the acceptance of the
other project.

The reason that NPV and IRR methods are giving different decisions for the projects, building of
new paper mill and modernization of existing paper mill are:

 The investment scale is different for both the projects. Building a new paper mill requires
higher investment as compared to the other project.
 The cash flows are also different of both the projects. The cash flow of building a new paper
mill is $67,093,320 more than the cash flow of the modernization of existing paper mill.
Thus, the magnitude of cash flows is also the reason of divergent signals.
QUESTION 4:
If the life of modernized paper mill becomes 15 years the payback period as calculated in
Question 2 part b would not change and would remain 3.807 years but the NPV if calculated
would change.

Investment required for the modernization = $154,700,000

Required rate of return = 12%

Yearly cash flow after tax deduction = $40,634,680 (for 15 years)

Net present value = C0 + present value of all future cash flows of 15 years

Casio calculator

a) Cash button
b) I% = 12%
c) Cash= D.editor x

X
1 -154700000
2 40634680
3 40634680
4 40634680
5 40634680
6 40634680
7 40634680
8 40634680
9 40634680
10 40634680
11 40634680
12 40634680
13 40634680
14 40634680
15 40634680
16 40634680

d) NPV = solve
e) NPV = $122,057,300
f) IRR = solve
g) IRR = 25.384%

If Incremental Cash Flows are Used:

Casio calculator

a) Cash button
b) I% = 12%
c) Cash= D.editor x

x
1 -154700000
2 29,212,360
3 29,212,360
4 29,212,360
5 29,212,360
6 29,212,360
7 29,212,360
8 29,212,360
9 29,212,360
10 29,212,360
11 29,212,360
12 29,212,360
13 29,212,360
14 29,212,360
15 29,212,360
16 29,212,360

d) NPV= solve
e) NPV=$ 44,261,425.38
f) IRR= solve
g) IRR = 17.118%

The NPV decreases with the decrease in number of years but still remain positive. Similarly
there is a decrease in IRR with the change in number of years. The IRR has decreased round
about 1.1% as compared to previous IRR calculation with 20 years cash flows.

Thus, it shows the effect of latter cash flows on IRR and NPV is less and early cash flows have
greater effect on IRR and NPV. Therefore it’s a better option to choose modernization of existing
paper mill as it has a lower payback, positive NPV and higher IRR and the employees only have
to cover 15 miles to reach it.

 According to the statement the yearly cash flows if multiplied by 5 give a large cash flow that
is actually affecting the NPV but in reality the effect is very little and 5 years can also be
omitted.
QUESTION 5:
Based on the calculations, modernization the existing facility would be better option because of
its early payback, higher IRR and positive NPV (although less than that of new facility). Based
on the information in the case, modernization the existing facility would be again better because
new facility location is 15 miles away from the existing facility which would increase the
employees' expense and this would be unfair with employees and it may decrease their loyalty
for company. So, we recommend to modernize the existing facility.
QUESTION 6:
(A)

Casio calculator

a) Cash button
b) I% = 12%
c) Cash= D.editor x

X
1 -464,100,000
2 67093320
3 67093320
4 67093320
5 67093320
6 67093320
7 67093320
8 67093320
9 67093320
10 67093320
11 67093320
12 67093320
13 67093320
14 67093320
15 67093320
16 67093320
17 67093320
18 67093320
19 67093320
20 67093320
21 67093320

d) IRR = solve
e) IRR = 13.258%

13.258% is the crossover rate of both the projects where there NPV = $126,379,470. If we
compare this rate to the required return 12% we will accept the project because the rate at which
the NPV of both the projects becomes equal is more than the required return.

Further if the cash flows have been overestimated this may be causing the result of IRR to be
13.248% that is only 1.25% more than required return may be the actual cash flows are lower
which may lower the IRR to 12% or even lower than that that can actually make the project
unacceptable.

(B)

If we explain the decision rule for IRR in case of mutually exclusive alternatives, we accept a
project which has IRR greater than its cost of capital, and If both the projects have IRR greater
than their cost of capital than we select the project having the highest IRR.

In mutually exclusive alternatives normally IRR and NPV give divergent signals which means if
IRR accepts a project, NPV rejects that project. Thus in this case NPV should be used as a
primary rule.

On the other hand if these projects would have been independent projects, IRR and NPV would
have given same answers. Normally in case of independent projects if NPV accepts the project
than IRR also gives the same decision. And In such projects we can accept all the projects if
there are no constraints.
QUESTION 7:
Data required for calculating the yearly cash flow

Modernization of existing Building new paper mill

paper mill ($) ($)
Initial Cost 154,700,000 618,800,000

Price per ton 455 455

Working days in a year 360 days 360 days

Tonnage per day 1200 2200

Variable cost per ton 282.1 227.50

Fixed operating cost per 19,860,000 52,200,000

year
SL value 20 years 20 years

Depreciation per year 7,735,000 30,940,000

Tax rate 40% 40%

Income statement for calculation of the operating cash flow:

Modernizing existing Building new building

facility
Sales 455 x1200 x360= 455 x2200 x360=
(Price per ton x number of $196,560,000 $360,360,000
tons x no. of days in a year)
Less: Fixed cost per year ($19,860,000) ($52,200,000)
(includes depreciation)
Less: variable cost per year 282.1 x 1200 x 360= 227.5 x 2200 x 360=
($121,867,200) ($180,180,000)
EBT $54,832,800 $ 127,980,000
Less: 40% tax ($ 21,933,120) ($ 51,192,000)
Net income $ 32,899,680 $ 76,788,000
Add Depreciation $ 7,735,000 $ 30,940,000
Net operating cash flow $ 40,634,680 $ 107,728,000
QUESTION 8:
(A) Calculating operating cash flows

1st 5year cash flows would be:

Modernization the old mill Building a new mill

Sales $196,560,000 $360,360,000
Less: F.C.(dep not included) (12,125,000) (21,260,000)
Less: VC (121,867,200) (180,180,000)
Dep (SL5 years)=initial (30,940,000) (123,760,000)
investment/5
EBT 31,627,800 35,160,000
Less: tax (12,651,120) (14,064,000)
Free Cash Flow 18976680 21096000
Add: Dep 30940000 123760000
Net Cash Flow 49,916,680 144,856,000
Now, the net cash flows for rest of 15 years would be:

Modernization the old mill Building a new mill

Sales 196560000 360360000

Less: F.C.(dep not included) (12,125,000) (21,260,000)
Less: VC (121,867,200) (180,180,000)
EBT 62567800 158920000
Less: tax (25,027,120) (63,568,000)
Net Cash Flow 37,540,680 95,352,000

Required rate of return and Initial investment is given.

Using the financial calculator, NPV would be

Q8 (a) Modernization the old mill Building a new mill

NPV 170,320,703.2 271,877,229.6
IRR 29.98% 19.74%
(B)

Q8 (b) Modernization the old mill Building a new mill

NPV (dep for 20 years) $ 148,818,451.5 $ 185,868,222.8
NPV (dep for 5 years) $ 170,320,703.2 $ 271,877,229.6
NPV change $ 21,502,251.7 $ 86,009,006.8
NPV change % 14.45% 46.32%

If Incremental Cash flows are used with Depreciation being

Charged for First 5 Years for Modernized Mill
Incremental cash flow for first 5 years of modernized mill

= $ 49,916,680 - $11,422,320 = $38,494,360

Incremental cash flow for last 15 years of modernized mill

=$ 37,540,680 -$ 11,422,320 = $ 26,118,360

Casio calculator

a) Cash button
b) I% = 12%
c) Cash= D.editor x

X
1 -154700000
2 38,494,360
3 38,494,360
4 38,494,360
5 38,494,360
6 38,494,360
7 26,118,360
8 26,118,360
9 26,118,360
10 26,118,360
11 26,118,360
12 26,118,360
13 26,118,360
14 26,118,360
15 26,118,360
16 26,118,360
17 26,118,360
18 26,118,360
19 26,118,360
20 26,118,360
21 26,118,360

d) NPV = solve
e) NPV = $ 85,002,327.86
f) IRR= solve
g) IRR = 21.5224%

Incremental cash flow for new paper mill

Incremental cash flow for first five years

= $ 144,856,000 - $ 11,422,320

= $ 133,433,680

Incremental cash flow for last 15 years

= $ 95,352,000- $11,422,320

= $ 83,929,680

Casio calculator
 a) Cash button
b) I% = 12%
c) Cash= D.editor x

X
1 -618,800,000
2 133,433,680
3 133,433,680
4 133,433,680
5 133,433,680
6 133,433,680
7 83,929,680
8 83,929,680
9 83,929,680
10 83,929,680
11 83,929,680
12 83,929,680
13 83,929,680
14 83,929,680
15 83,929,680
16 83,929,680
17 83,929,680
18 83,929,680
19 83,929,680
20 83,929,680
21 83,929,680

d) NPV = solve
e) NPV = $ 186,558,850
f) IRR= solve
 g) IRR = 17.4369%

Modernized mill New mill

NPV of project with 20 year $ 63,500,076.15 $ 100,549,850
depreciation
NPV of project with 5 year $ 85,002,327.86 $ 186,558,850
depreciation
IRR of project with 20 year 18.219% 14.531%
depreciation
IRR of project with 5 year 21.5224% 17.4369%
depreciation
Change in NPV $ 21,502,251.71 $ 86,009,000
Change in IRR 3.3034% 2.9059%
NPV change in % 33.86% 85.54%
By using incremental cash flows also we get to know that the percentage change in NPV of new
mill project is higher.

The NPV change would be higher in building a new mill, possible reasons would be the
magnitude of early and latter cash flows. Latter cash flows experience greater impact of discount
rate rather early cash flows. 5 year depreciation makes early cash flows higher.

QUESTION 9:
For calculating the cash flow where the annual production is minimum which makes the project
unacceptable we calculate the payment through annuity formula:

PV= C x ((1-(1+r)-n)/r)

R= 12%

n= 20

Calculation of Cash Flow Modernization of existing mill Building New Mill

Cash Flows 154,700,000/((1-(1+0.12)-20)/0.12) 618,800,000/((1-(1+0.12)-20)/0.12)
=$ 20711047.27 = $ 82844189.09
Minimum annual production

Modernization of existing mill Building New Mill

Operating cash flow $ 20,711,047.27 $ 82,844,189.09

Less: depreciation ($7,735,000) ($30,940,000)
Net Income 12,976,047.27 51,904,189.09
EBT $ 21,626,745.45 $ 86,506,981.82
Add Fixed Cost $ 19,860,000 $ 52, 200,000
Gross profit $ 41,486,745.45 $ 138,706,981.8
Tonnage per year 239,946.47455 609,701.019
Add Variable Cost = tonnage $ 67,688,900.47 $ 138,706,981.8
per year x variable cost per
ton
Sales $ 109,175,645.9 $ 277,413,963.6

Modernization of existing mill:

Net income = (EBT – EBT x40%)

=EBT (1-(1 x 40%))

EBT= Net Income/ (1-(1 x.4))

= 12,976,047.27/ (1-(1 x .4))

= $ 21626745.45

Building new paper mill

Net income = (EBT – EBT x40%)

=EBT (1-(1 x 40%))

EBT= Net Income/ (1-(1 x.4))

= 51,904,189.09/ (1-(1 x .4))

=$ 86506981.82
Tonnage per Year:

Gross profit = Tonnage per year (price per ton (sales) – variable cost per ton)

Modernized existing mill tonnage per year= $ 41486745.45/ (455- 282.1) = $ 239946.4746

New mill tonnage per year =$ 138706981.8/ (455- 227.5) = $ 609701.019

QUESTION 10:
(A)

No, it is not appropriate to judge different proposals on same discount rate because each proposal
has its own cost and cost of capital which is according to its risk. So, in order to evaluate the
proposals, we should compare proposal's own cost of capital with its IRR. If IRR is greater than
that of its cost of capital proposal should be accepted otherwise rejected.

(B)

Yes, it is possible that my decision would be change if both projects have different cost of
capital. Change in cost of capital can also change the decision we made on the basis of IRR in
question 5 of selecting the project of modernization of existing mill. If both projects would have
higher IRR than their discount rate than I would select project with higher NPV.