Thayer Consultancy Background Brief

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Cambodia: Peaceful Uprising
and a Power Shift?
November 4, 2019

We are working on a report about the possible impact on Cambodia-China relations

amid the growing political uncertainty in Cambodia and request your input.
Through a significant amount of investment and aid, China has established a large
stake in Hun Sen government and Cambodia has played an important role in the Belt
and Road Initiative and the Beijing-led Lancang Mekong mechanism, so:
Q1- How do you assess Beijing's stake in Cambodia?
ANSWER: China tops the list of countries with influence in Cambodia: biggest trading
partner, major source of foreign investment, largest provider of development
assistance, and staunchest supporter of the Hun Sen regime and the Cambodian
People’s Party. China’s commercial and economic influence is so extensive that it may
be compared to European extra-territoriality in Asia during the colonial era. China has
a huge stake in Cambodia – politically, diplomatically, economically, and commercially.
Cambodia is a client state that serves as a conduit for Chinese influence in the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
Q2- How do you think the “peaceful uprising” – proposed by Sam Rainsy – as well as
the EU's threat to suspend the trade preference with Cambodia, could affect Hun Sen
government's relationship with Beijing?
ANSER: Sam Rainsy’s threat of a “peaceful uprising” is a pipe dream. This threat is
opportunistically timed to influence the European Union’s consideration of
suspending trade preferences on Cambodian textiles under its Everything But Arms
(EBA) program. The re-imposition of tariffs is a serious matter for Hun Sen as it would
affect tens of thousands of workers in the textile industry. This could provide grounds
for political instability. If the EU suspended preferences this will make Cambodia even
more dependent on China. China has already offered to support Cambodia if EBA tariff
preferences are withdrawn, and China’s support is unlikely to diminish.
Q3- What's your assessment of the power shift in Cambodia? (there have been
concerns that Beijing, with its large stake in Cambodia, would face a tough challenge
in its relations with neighbours if Hun Sen stepped down, as Mr. Rainsy has publicly
warned against the government's growing ties with Beijing, which he said has
threatened the rights of its people and undermined Cambodia's fight for democracy).
 2

ANSWER: It is my assessment that there is no real power shift taking place in

Cambodia. Hun Sen is firmly in control and he will not let Sam Rainsy and other exiles
return to create political instability. ASEAN members will uphold the norm of non-
interference in internal affairs. Cambodia’s neighbours are pragmatic and will work
with whomever takes office if there is a power shift.
The events following national elections in 2013 are instructive. Hun Sen suffered a
major electoral set back and there were mass protests in the streets of Phnom Penh.
Hun Sen’s first port of call was the Chinese Embassy where he sought its support.
According to diplomatic sources who spoke to me, China offered its support in general
terms: China would support any Cambodian leader who protected Chinese interests.
Hun Sen got the message and further consolidated his grip on power.

Media Identification: Carl Thayer is emeritus professor at The University of

New South Wales, Canberra or Carl Thayer is emeritus professor at The University of
New South Wales at the Australian Defence Force Academy, Canberra.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Cambodia: Peaceful Uprising and a Power
Shift?,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, November 4, 2019. All background
briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.