Case Data

Actual
Year Month Year Average
Demand
January 437 1
February 605 2
March 722 3
April 893 4
May 901
June 1311
2008
July 1055
August 975
September 822
October 893
November 599
December 608
January 712
February 732
March 829
April 992
May 1148
June 1552
2009
July 927
August 1284
September 1118
October 737
November 983
December 872
January 613
February 984
March 812
April 1218
May 1187
June 1430
2010
July 1392
August 1481
September 940
October 994
November 807
December 527
 January 701
February 1291
March 1162
April 1088
May 1497
June 1781
2011
July 1843
August 839
September 1273
October 912
November 996
December 792
Naïve Technique
Actual Naïve Absolute Error Absolute %
Year Month Error
Demand Forecast Error Squared Error
January 437
February 605 437 168 168 28224 28%
March 722 605 117 117 13689 16%
April 893 722 171 171 29241 19%
May 901 893 8 8 64 1%
June 1311 901 410 410 168100 31%
2008 July 1055 1311 -256 256 65536 24%
August 975 1055 -80 80 6400 8%
September 822 975 -153 153 23409 19%
October 893 822 71 71 5041 8%
November 599 893 -294 294 86436 49%
December 608 599 9 9 81 1%
January 712 608 104 104 10816 15%
February 732 712 20 20 400 3%
March 829 732 97 97 9409 12%
April 992 829 163 163 26569 16%
May 1148 992 156 156 24336 14%
June 1552 1148 404 404 163216 26%
2009
July 927 1552 -625 625 390625 67%
August 1284 927 357 357 127449 28%
September 1118 1284 -166 166 27556 15%
October 737 1118 -381 381 145161 52%
November 983 737 246 246 60516 25%
December 872 983 -111 111 12321 13%
January 613 872 -259 259 67081 42%
February 984 613 371 371 137641 38%
March 812 984 -172 172 29584 21%
April 1218 812 406 406 164836 33%
May 1187 1218 -31 31 961 3%
June 1430 1187 243 243 59049 17%
2010
July 1392 1430 -38 38 1444 3%
August 1481 1392 89 89 7921 6%
September 940 1481 -541 541 292681 58%
October 994 940 54 54 2916 5%
November 807 994 -187 187 34969 23%
December 527 807 -280 280 78400 53%
January 701 527 174 174 30276 25%

2011
 February 1291 701 590 590 348100 46%
March 1162 1291 -129 129 16641 11%
April 1088 1162 -74 74 5476 7%
May 1497 1088 409 409 167281 27%
June 1781 1497 284 284 80656 16%
2011
July 1843 1781 62 62 3844 3%
August 839 1843 -1004 1004 1008016 120%
September 1273 839 434 434 188356 34%
October 912 1273 -361 361 130321 40%
November 996 912 84 84 7056 8%
December 792 996 -204 204 41616 26%
2012 January 792 -792 792 627264
 Tracking
Cum. Error
Signal

168 1 MAD = 235 AF

285 1 MSE = 92122 MAD 
456 2 MAPE = 25% n
464 2
  A  F
2
874 4 MSE 
1130 5 n
1210 5
 A-F
1363 6  
1434 6  A  x100
MAPE 
1728 7 n
1737 7
1841 8
1861 8
1958 8
2121 9
2277 10
2681 11
3306 14
3663 16
3829 16
4210 18
4456 19
4567 19
4826 21
5197 22
5369 23
5775 25
5806 25
6049 26
6087 26
6176 26
6717 29
6771 29
6958 30
7238 31
7412 32
 8002 34
8131 35
8205 35
8614 37
8898 38
8960 38
9964 42
10398 44
10759 46
10843 46
11047 47
11839
-F

A 
x100
Three Period Simple Moving Average Technique
Actual SMA-3 Absolute Error Absolute %
Year Month Error
Demand Forecast Error Squared Error
January 437
February 605
March 722
April 893 588 305 305 93025 34%
May 901 740 161 161 25921 18%
June 1311 839 472 472 223099 36%
2008
July 1055 1035 20 20 400 2%
August 975 1089 -114 114 12996 12%
September 822 1114 -292 292 85069 35%
October 893 951 -58 58 3325 6%
November 599 897 -298 298 88605 50%
December 608 771 -163 163 26678 27%
January 712 700 12 12 144 2%
February 732 640 92 92 8525 13%
March 829 684 145 145 21025 17%
April 992 758 234 234 54912 24%
May 1148 851 297 297 88209 26%
June 1552 990 562 562 316219 36%
2009 July 927 1231 -304 304 92213 33%
August 1284 1209 75 75 5625 6%
September 1118 1254 -136 136 18587 12%
October 737 1110 -373 373 138880 51%
November 983 1046 -63 63 4011 6%
December 872 946 -74 74 5476 8%
January 613 864 -251 251 63001 41%
February 984 823 161 161 26028 16%
March 812 823 -11 11 121 1%
April 1218 803 415 415 172225 34%
May 1187 1005 182 182 33245 15%
June 1430 1072 358 358 127925 25%
2010
July 1392 1278 114 114 12920 8%
August 1481 1336 145 145 20928 10%
September 940 1434 -494 494 244365 53%
October 994 1271 -277 277 76729 28%
November 807 1138 -331 331 109782 41%
December 527 914 -387 387 149511 73%
January 701 776 -75 75 5625 11%
February 1291 678 613 613 375360 47%
March 1162 840 322 322 103899 28%

2011
 April 1088 1051 37 37 1344 3%
May 1497 1180 317 317 100278 21%
June 1781 1249 532 532 283024 30%
2011
July 1843 1455 388 388 150285 21%
August 839 1707 -868 868 753424 103%
September 1273 1488 -215 215 46082 17%
October 912 1318 -406 406 165107 45%
November 996 1008 -12 12 144 1%
December 792 1060 -268 268 72003 34%
2012 January 900 -900 900 810000
ge Technique
Tracking
Cum. Error
Signal

MAD = 254 AF

MSE = 97918 MAD 
n
305 1 MAPE = 26%
  A  F
466 2 2
938 4 MSE 
958 4 n
1072 4  A-F
1364 5  
A
1422
1719
6
7
MAPE    x100
n
1883 7
1895 7
1987 8
2132 8
2366 9
2663 10
3226 13
3529 14
3604 14
3741 15
4113 16
4177 16
4251 17
4502 18
4663 18
4674 18
5089 20
5271 21
5629 22
5743 23
5887 23
6382 25
6659 26
6990 28
7377 29
7452 29
8064 32
8387 33
 8423 33
8740 34
9272 37
9660 38
10528 41
10742 42
11149 44
11161 44
11429 45
-F

A 
x100
Five Period Simple Moving Average Technique
Actual SMA-5 Absolute Error Absolute %
Year Month Error
Demand Forecast Error Squared Error
January 437
February 605
March 722
April 893
May 901
June 1311 712 599 599 359280 46%
2008
July 1055 886 169 169 28426 16%
August 975 976 -1 1 2 0%
September 822 1027 -205 205 42025 25%
October 893 1013 -120 120 14352 13%
November 599 1011 -412 412 169909 69%
December 608 869 -261 261 68017 43%
January 712 779 -67 67 4543 9%
February 732 727 5 5 27 1%
March 829 709 120 120 14448 14%
April 992 696 296 296 87616 30%
May 1148 775 373 373 139428 33%
June 1552 883 669 669 448096 43%
2009
July 927 1051 -124 124 15277 13%
August 1284 1090 194 194 37791 15%
September 1118 1181 -63 63 3919 6%
October 737 1206 -469 469 219773 64%
November 983 1124 -141 141 19768 14%
December 872 1010 -138 138 18989 16%
January 613 999 -386 386 148842 63%
February 984 865 119 119 14256 12%
March 812 838 -26 26 666 3%
April 1218 853 365 365 133371 30%
May 1187 900 287 287 82484 24%
June 1430 963 467 467 218276 33%
2010
July 1392 1126 266 266 70650 19%
August 1481 1208 273 273 74638 18%
September 940 1342 -402 402 161283 43%
October 994 1286 -292 292 85264 29%
November 807 1247 -440 440 193952 55%
December 527 1123 -596 596 354978 113%
January 701 950 -249 249 61901 35%
February 1291 794 497 497 247208 39%

2011
 March 1162 864 298 298 88804 26%
April 1088 898 190 190 36252 18%
May 1497 954 543 543 295066 36%
June 1781 1148 633 633 400942 36%
2011
July 1843 1364 479 479 229633 26%
August 839 1474 -635 635 403479 76%
September 1273 1410 -137 137 18660 11%
October 912 1447 -535 535 285797 59%
November 996 1330 -334 334 111289 33%
December 792 1173 -381 381 144856 48%
2012 January
e Technique
Tracking
Cum. Error
Signal

MAD = 308 AF

MSE = 129168 MAD 
MAPE = 31% n
  A  F
2
599 1.94425418 MSE 
768 2.49113649 n
769 2.49567762
 A-F
974 3.16062942  
1094 3.54922077  A 
1506 4.88626043 MAPE  x100
1767 5.73220886
n
1835 5.95083204
1840 5.96769911
1960 6.35758792
2256 7.31771344
2629 8.52889881
3299 10.7002097
3422 11.101127
3617 11.7316959
3679 11.9347495
4148 13.4553807
4289 13.9114403
4427 14.3584177
4812 15.6098245
4932 15.9971184
4958 16.080805
5323 17.2653923
5610 18.1969736
6077 19.7124149
6343 20.5745817
6616 21.4607516
7018 22.7634084
7310 23.7105593
7750 25.1390703
8346 27.0716473
8595 27.8786718
9092 29.4914231
 9390 30.458036
9580 31.0756303
10124 32.8375903
10757 34.8914805
11236 36.4458458
11871 38.5062233
12008 38.9493083
12542 40.6833728
12876 41.7654602
13257 43
F

 x100
Three Period Weighted Moving Average Techniqu
PERIOD 1 2 3 Sum
WEIGHTS 0.2 0.3 0.5 1

Actual WMA-3 Absolute Error Absolute %

Year Month Error
Demand Forecast Error Squared Error
January 437
February 605
March 722
April 893 630 263 263 69222 29%
May 901 784 117 117 13666 13%
June 1311 863 448 448 200883 34%
2008
July 1055 1104 -49 49 2440 5%
August 975 1101 -126 126 15876 13%
September 822 1066 -244 244 59634 30%
October 893 915 -22 22 462 2%
November 599 888 -289 289 83579 48%
December 608 732 -124 124 15326 20%
January 712 662 50 50 2470 7%
February 732 658 74 74 5446 10%
March 829 701 128 128 16333 15%
April 992 777 216 216 46440 22%
May 1148 891 257 257 65998 22%
June 1552 1037 515 515 264813 33%
2009
July 927 1319 -392 392 153507 42%
August 1284 1159 125 125 15700 10%
September 1118 1231 -113 113 12656 10%
October 737 1130 -393 393 154135 53%
November 983 961 22 22 497 2%
December 872 936 -64 64 4122 7%
January 613 878 -265 265 70384 43%
February 984 765 219 219 48092 22%
March 812 850 -38 38 1467 5%
April 1218 824 394 394 155394 32%
May 1187 1049 138 138 18934 12%
June 1430 1121 309 309 95296 22%
2010
July 1392 1315 77 77 5975 6%
August 1481 1362 119 119 14066 8%
September 940 1444 -504 504 254117 54%
October 994 1193 -199 199 39482 20%
November 807 1075 -268 268 71931 33%
December 527 890 -363 363 131551 69%
 January 701 704 -3 3 12 0%
February 1291 670 621 621 385641 48%
March 1162 961 201 201 40321 17%
April 1088 1109 -21 21 420 2%
May 1497 1151 346 346 119854 23%
June 1781 1307 474 474 224392 27%
2011
July 1843 1557 286 286 81682 16%
August 839 1755 -916 916 839422 109%
September 1273 1329 -56 56 3091 4%
October 912 1257 -345 345 118887 38%
November 996 1006 -10 10 94 1%
December 792 1026 -234 234 54850 30%
2012 January
rage Technique

Tracking
Cum. Error
Signal
AF
MAD 
MAD = 232 n
MSE = 88412
  A  F
2
263 1.1 MAPE = 24%
380 1.6 MSE 
828 3.6 n
878 3.8  A-F
1004 4.3  
A
1248 5.4 MAPE    x100
1269 5.5 n
1558 6.7
1682 7.3
1732 7.5
1806 7.8
1934 8.3
2149 9.3
2406 10.4
2921 12.6
3312 14.3
3438 14.8
3550 15.3
3943 17.0
3965 17.1
4029 17.4
4295 18.5
4514 19.5
4552 19.6
4946 21.3
5084 21.9
5393 23.3
5470 23.6
5589 24.1
6093 26.3
6291 27.1
6560 28.3
6922 29.9
 6926 29.9
7547 32.5
7747 33.4
7768 33.5
8114 35.0
8588 37.0
8874 38.3
9790 42.2
9845 42.5
10190 43.9
10200 44.0
10434 45.0
F

 x100
Three Period Weighted Moving Average Techniqu
PERIOD 1 2 3 Sum
WEIGHTS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0

Actual WMA-3S Absolute Error Absolute %

Year Month Error
Demand Forecast Error Squared Error
January 437
February 605
March 722
April 893 0 893 893 797449 100%
May 901 0 901 901 811801 100%
June 1311 0 1311 1311 1718721 100%
2008
July 1055 0 1055 1055 1113025 100%
August 975 0 975 975 950625 100%
September 822 0 822 822 675684 100%
October 893 0 893 893 797449 100%
November 599 0 599 599 358801 100%
December 608 0 608 608 369664 100%
January 712 0 712 712 506944 100%
February 732 0 732 732 535824 100%
March 829 0 829 829 687241 100%
April 992 0 992 992 984064 100%
May 1148 0 1148 1148 1317904 100%
June 1552 0 1552 1552 2408704 100%
2009
July 927 0 927 927 859329 100%
August 1284 0 1284 1284 1648656 100%
September 1118 0 1118 1118 1249924 100%
October 737 0 737 737 543169 100%
November 983 0 983 983 966289 100%
December 872 0 872 872 760384 100%
January 613 0 613 613 375769 100%
February 984 0 984 984 968256 100%
March 812 0 812 812 659344 100%
April 1218 0 1218 1218 1483524 100%
May 1187 0 1187 1187 1408969 100%
June 1430 0 1430 1430 2044900 100%
2010
July 1392 0 1392 1392 1937664 100%
August 1481 0 1481 1481 2193361 100%
September 940 0 940 940 883600 100%
October 994 0 994 994 988036 100%
November 807 0 807 807 651249 100%
December 527 0 527 527 277729 100%
 January 701 0 701 701 491401 100%
February 1291 0 1291 1291 1666681 100%
March 1162 0 1162 1162 1350244 100%
April 1088 0 1088 1088 1183744 100%
May 1497 0 1497 1497 2241009 100%
June 1781 0 1781 1781 3171961 100%
2011
July 1843 0 1843 1843 3396649 100%
August 839 0 839 839 703921 100%
September 1273 0 1273 1273 1620529 100%
October 912 0 912 912 831744 100%
November 996 0 996 996 992016 100%
December 792 0 792 792 627264 100%
2012 January
age Technique Using Solver

Tracking
Cum. Error
Signal

MAD = 1033 AF

MAD 
MSE = 1160249 n
893 0.9 MAPE = 100%
  A  F
2
1794 1.7
3105 3.0 MSE 
4160 4.0 n
5135 5.0  A-F
5957 5.8  
A
6850 6.6 MAPE    x100
7449 7.2 n
8057 7.8
8769 8.5
9501 9.2
10330 10.0
11322 11.0
12470 12.1
14022 13.6
14949 14.5
16233 15.7
17351 16.8
18088 17.5
19071 18.5
19943 19.3
20556 19.9
21540 20.8
22352 21.6
23570 22.8
24757 24.0
26187 25.3
27579 26.7
29060 28.1
30000 29.0
30994 30.0
31801 30.8
32328 31.3
33029 32.0
34320 33.2
35482 34.3
36570 35.4
38067 36.8
39848 38.6
41691 40.3
42530 41.2
43803 42.4
44715 43.3
45711 44.2
46503 45.0
A-F

A 
x100
n
Five Period Weighted Moving Average Technique
PERIOD 1 2 3 4 5 Sum
WEIGHTS 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.3

Actual WMA-5 Absolute Error Absolute %

Year Month Error
Demand Forecast Error Squared Error
January 437
February 605
March 722
April 893
May 901
June 1311 963 348 348 120965 27%
2008
July 1055 1197 -142 142 20136 13%
August 975 1303 -328 328 107650 34%
September 822 1361 -539 539 290629 66%
October 893 1298 -405 405 164025 45%
November 599 1280 -681 681 464033 114%
December 608 1100 -492 492 242261 81%
January 712 989 -277 277 76951 39%
February 732 919 -187 187 34857 26%
March 829 914 -85 85 7225 10%
April 992 923 69 69 4720 7%
May 1148 1030 118 118 13948 10%
June 1552 1180 373 373 138756 24%
2009
July 927 1420 -493 493 242852 53%
August 1284 1452 -168 168 28325 13%
September 1118 1557 -439 439 192633 39%
October 737 1539 -802 802 642723 109%
November 983 1438 -455 455 206570 46%
December 872 1294 -422 422 177747 48%
January 613 1258 -645 645 416025 105%
February 984 1111 -127 127 16231 13%
March 812 1085 -273 273 74365 34%
April 1218 1094 124 124 15450 10%
May 1187 1201 -14 14 202 1%
June 1430 1285 146 146 21170 10%
2010
July 1392 1510 -118 118 13853 8%
August 1481 1609 -128 128 16307 9%
September 940 1772 -832 832 692058 89%
October 994 1667 -673 673 453333 68%
November 807 1589 -782 782 611368 97%
December 527 1397 -870 870 756726 165%
 January 701 1183 -482 482 231939 69%
February 1291 997 294 294 86260 23%
March 1162 1116 46 46 2125 4%
April 1088 1213 -125 125 15625 11%
May 1497 1308 189 189 35759 13%
June 1781 1523 259 259 66822 15%
2011
July 1843 1800 43 43 1815 2%
August 839 1986 -1147 1147 1316297 137%
September 1273 1856 -583 583 339772 46%
October 912 1842 -930 930 865086 102%
November 996 1632 -636 636 404496 64%
December 792 1491 -699 699 488182 88%
2012 January
ge Technique

Tracking
Cum. Error
Signal
AF
MAD 
MAD = 395 n
MSE = 238031
  A  F
2
MAPE = 46%
MSE 
348 0.9 n
490 1.2  A-F
818 2.1  
 A 
1357 3.4 MAPE  x100
1762 4.5 n
2443 6.2
2935 7.4
3213 8.1
3399 8.6
3484 8.8
3553 9.0
3671 9.3
4044 10.2
4537 11.5
4705 11.9
5144 13.0
5945 15.1
6400 16.2
6822 17.3
7467 18.9
7594 19.2
7867 19.9
7991 20.2
8005 20.3
8151 20.6
8268 20.9
8396 21.3
9228 23.4
9901 25.1
10683 27.0
11553 29.2
12035 30.5
12328 31.2
12374 31.3
12499 31.6
12689 32.1
12947 32.8
12990 32.9
14137 35.8
14720 37.3
15650 39.6
16286 41.2
16985 43.0
F

 x100
Five Period Weighted Moving Average Technique
PERIOD 1 2 3 4 5 Sum
WEIGHTS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Actual WMA-5S Absolute Error Absolute %

Year Month Error
Demand Forecast Error Squared Error
January 437
February 605
March 722
April 893
May 901
June 1311 0 1311 1311 1718721 100%
2008
July 1055 0 1055 1055 1113025 100%
August 975 0 975 975 950625 100%
September 822 0 822 822 675684 100%
October 893 0 893 893 797449 100%
November 599 0 599 599 358801 100%
December 608 0 608 608 369664 100%
January 712 0 712 712 506944 100%
February 732 0 732 732 535824 100%
March 829 0 829 829 687241 100%
April 992 0 992 992 984064 100%
May 1148 0 1148 1148 1317904 100%
June 1552 0 1552 1552 2408704 100%
2009
July 927 0 927 927 859329 100%
August 1284 0 1284 1284 1648656 100%
September 1118 0 1118 1118 1249924 100%
October 737 0 737 737 543169 100%
November 983 0 983 983 966289 100%
December 872 0 872 872 760384 100%
January 613 0 613 613 375769 100%
February 984 0 984 984 968256 100%
March 812 0 812 812 659344 100%
April 1218 0 1218 1218 1483524 100%
May 1187 0 1187 1187 1408969 100%
June 1430 0 1430 1430 2044900 100%
2010
July 1392 0 1392 1392 1937664 100%
August 1481 0 1481 1481 2193361 100%
September 940 0 940 940 883600 100%
October 994 0 994 994 988036 100%
November 807 0 807 807 651249 100%
December 527 0 527 527 277729 100%
 January 701 0 701 701 491401 100%
February 1291 0 1291 1291 1666681 100%
March 1162 0 1162 1162 1350244 100%
April 1088 0 1088 1088 1183744 100%
May 1497 0 1497 1497 2241009 100%
June 1781 0 1781 1781 3171961 100%
2011
July 1843 0 1843 1843 3396649 100%
August 839 0 839 839 703921 100%
September 1273 0 1273 1273 1620529 100%
October 912 0 912 912 831744 100%
November 996 0 996 996 992016 100%
December 792 0 792 792 627264 100%
2012 January
ge Technique Using Solver

Tracking
Cum. Error
Signal

MAD = 1040 AF

MSE = 1176790 MAD 
MAPE = 100%
n
  A  F
2
1311 1.3 MSE 
2366 2.3 n
3341 3.2  A-F
4163 4.0  
5056 4.9  A 
5655 5.4
MAPE  x100
n
6263 6.0
6975 6.7
7707 7.4
8536 8.2
9528 9.2
10676 10.3
12228 11.8
13155 12.7
14439 13.9
15557 15.0
16294 15.7
17277 16.6
18149 17.5
18762 18.0
19746 19.0
20558 19.8
21776 20.9
22963 22.1
24393 23.5
25785 24.8
27266 26.2
28206 27.1
29200 28.1
30007 28.9
30534 29.4
31235 30.0
32526 31.3
33688 32.4
34776 33.4
36273 34.9
38054 36.6
39897 38.4
40736 39.2
42009 40.4
42921 41.3
43917 42.2
44709 43.0
A-F

A 
x100
n
Exponential Smoothing Technique
Alpha =

Actual ES-0.1 Absolute Error Absolute %

Year Month Error
Demand Forecast Error Squared Error
January 437
February 605
March 722
April 893
May 901
June 1311
2008
July 1055
August 975
September 822
October 893
November 599
December 608
January 712
February 732
March 829
April 992
May 1148
June 1552
2009
July 927
August 1284
September 1118
October 737
November 983
December 872
January 613
February 984
March 812
April 1218
May 1187
June 1430
2010
July 1392
August 1481
September 940
October 994
November 807
December 527
January 701
 February 1291
March 1162
April 1088
May 1497
June 1781
2011
July 1843
August 839
September 1273
October 912
November 996
December 792
2012 January
 Tracking
Cum. Error
Signal F_(t+1)= 〖 αA 〗 _t+(1−
α)F_t  A  F
MAD = MAD 
MSE = n
MAPE =
  A  F
2
MSE 
n
 A-F
 
 A 
MAPE  x100
n
〖 αA 〗 _t+(1−

A-F

A 
x100
n
Exponential Smoothing Technique
Alpha =

Actual ES-0.5 Absolute Error Absolute %

Year Month Error
Demand Forecast Error Squared Error
January 437
February 605
March 722
April 893
May 901
June 1311
2008
July 1055
August 975
September 822
October 893
November 599
December 608
January 712
February 732
March 829
April 992
May 1148
June 1552
2009
July 927
August 1284
September 1118
October 737
November 983
December 872
January 613
February 984
March 812
April 1218
May 1187
June 1430
2010
July 1392
August 1481
September 940
October 994
November 807
December 527
January 701
 February 1291
March 1162
April 1088
May 1497
June 1781
2011
July 1843
August 839
September 1273
October 912
November 996
December 792
2012 January
 Tracking
Cum. Error
Signal F_(t+1)= 〖 αA 〗 _t+(1−
α)F_t
MAD = AF
MSE = MAD 
n
MAPE =
  A  F
2
MSE 
n
 A-F
 
 A 
MAPE  x100
n
〖 αA 〗 _t+(1−

A-F

A 
x100
n
Exponential Smoothing Technique Using Solver
Alpha =

Actual ESS Absolute Error Absolute %

Year Month Error
Demand Forecast Error Squared Error
January 437
February 605
March 722
April 893
May 901
June 1311
2008
July 1055
August 975
September 822
October 893
November 599
December 608
January 712
February 732
March 829
April 992
May 1148
June 1552
2009
July 927
August 1284
September 1118
October 737
November 983
December 872
January 613
February 984
March 812
April 1218
May 1187
June 1430
2010
July 1392
August 1481
September 940
October 994
November 807
December 527
January 701
 February 1291
March 1162
April 1088
May 1497
June 1781
2011
July 1843
August 839
September 1273
October 912
November 996
December 792
2012 January
sing Solver

Tracking
Cum. Error
Signal F_(t+1)= 〖 αA 〗 _t+(1−
α)F_t  A  F
MAD = MAD 
MSE = n
MAPE =
  A  F
2
MSE 
n
 A-F
 
A
MAPE    x100
n
〖 αA 〗 _t+(1−

A-F

A 
x100
n
Adjusted Exponential Smoothing Technique
Alpha = Beta =

Actual ES AES Absolute Error

Year Month Tt+1 Error
Demand Forecast Forecast Error Squared
January 437
February 605
March 722
April 893
May 901
June 1311
2008
July 1055
August 975
September 822
October 893
November 599
December 608
January 712
February 732
March 829
April 992
May 1148
June 1552
2009
July 927
August 1284
September 1118
October 737
November 983
December 872
January 613
February 984
March 812
April 1218
May 1187
June 1430
2010
July 1392
August 1481
September 940
October 994
November 807
December 527
January 701
 February 1291
March 1162
April 1088
May 1497
June 1781
2011
July 1843
August 839
September 1273
October 912
November 996
December 792
2012 January
chnique
AF_(t+1)= F_(t+1)+T_(t+
F_(t+1)= 〖 αA 〗 _t+(1−
Absolute Tracking
Cum. Error
% Error Signal T_(t+1)= 〖 β(F 〗 _(t+1 )
MAD = AF
MSE = MAD 
n
MAPE =
  A  F
2
MSE 
n
 A-F
 
 A 
MAPE  x100
n
+1)= F_(t+1)+T_(t+1)
1)= 〖 αA 〗 _t+(1− α)F_t
1)= 〖 β(F 〗 _(t+1 )− F_t)+ 〖 (1−β)T 〗 _t
AF
D
n
  A  F
2

n
 A-F
 
 A 
PE  x100
n
Adjusted Exponential Smoothing Technique Usin
Alpha =
Beta =

Actual ES AESS Absolute Error

Year Month Tt+1 Error
Demand Forecast Forecast Error Squared
January 437
February 605
March 722
April 893
May 901
June 1311
2008
July 1055
August 975
September 822
October 893
November 599
December 608
January 712
February 732
March 829
April 992
May 1148
June 1552
2009
July 927
August 1284
September 1118
October 737
November 983
December 872
January 613
February 984
March 812
April 1218
May 1187
June 1430
2010
July 1392
August 1481
September 940
October 994
November 807
December 527
 January 701
February 1291
March 1162
April 1088
May 1497
June 1781
2011
July 1843
August 839
September 1273
October 912
November 996
December 792
2012 January
chnique Using Solver
AF_(t+1)= F_(t+1)+T_(t+

F_(t+1)= 〖 αA 〗 _t+(1−
Absolute Tracking
Cum. Error
% Error Signal T_(t+1)= 〖 β(F 〗 _(t+1 )
MAD = AF
MAD 
MSE = n
MAPE =
  A  F
2
MSE 
n
 A-F
 
 A 
MAPE  x100
n
+1)= F_(t+1)+T_(t+1)

1)= 〖 αA 〗 _t+(1− α)F_t

1)= 〖 β(F 〗 _(t+1 )− F_t)+ 〖 (1−β)T 〗 _t
 AF

n
  A  F
2

n
 A-F
 
 A 
E x100
n
Linear Trend Line Technique
Using Function
Slope b
Intercept a

Actual LTL Absolute

Year Month Month Number Error Error Squared
Demand Forecast Error
January 1 437
February 2 605
March 3 722
April 4 893
May 5 901
June 6 1311
2008
July 7 1055
August 8 975
September 9 822
October 10 893
November 11 599
December 12 608
January 13 712
February 14 732
March 15 829
April 16 992
May 17 1148
June 18 1552
2009
July 19 927
August 20 1284
September 21 1118
October 22 737
November 23 983
December 24 872
January 25 613
February 26 984
March 27 812
April 28 1218
May 29 1187
June 30 1430
2010
July 31 1392
August 32 1481
September 33 940
October 34 994
November 35 807
2010

December 36 527
January 37 701
February 38 1291
March 39 1162
April 40 1088
May 41 1497
June 42 1781
2011
July 43 1843
August 44 839
September 45 1273
October 46 912
November 47 996
December 48 792
2012 January
Absolute Tracking
Cum. Error
% Error Signal

MAD = AF
MSE =
MAD 
n
MAPE =
  A  F
2
MSE 
n
 A-F
 
 A 
MAPE  x100
n
 AF

n
  A  F
2

n
 A-F
 
 A 
E x100
n
Time Series Methods Analysis
Forecasting Techniques

Actual Naïve SMA-3 SMA-5 WMA-3 WMA-3S WMA-5 WMA-5S

Year Month
Demand Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
January 437
February 605 437
March 722 605
April 893 722 588 630 0
May 901 893 740 784 0
June 1311 901 839 712 863 0 963 0
2008
July 1055 1311 1035 886 1104 0 1197 0
August 975 1055 1089 976 1101 0 1303 0
September 822 975 1114 1027 1066 0 1361 0
October 893 822 951 1013 915 0 1298 0
November 599 893 897 1011 888 0 1280 0
December 608 599 771 869 732 0 1100 0
January 712 608 700 779 662 0 989 0
February 732 712 640 727 658 0 919 0
March 829 732 684 709 701 0 914 0
April 992 829 758 696 777 0 923 0
May 1148 992 851 775 891 0 1030 0
June 1552 1148 990 883 1037 0 1180 0
2009
July 927 1552 1231 1051 1319 0 1420 0
August 1284 927 1209 1090 1159 0 1452 0
September 1118 1284 1254 1181 1231 0 1557 0
October 737 1118 1110 1206 1130 0 1539 0
November 983 737 1046 1124 961 0 1438 0
December 872 983 946 1010 936 0 1294 0
January 613 872 864 999 878 0 1258 0
February 984 613 823 865 765 0 1111 0
March 812 984 823 838 850 0 1085 0
April 1218 812 803 853 824 0 1094 0
May 1187 1218 1005 900 1049 0 1201 0
June 1430 1187 1072 963 1121 0 1285 0
2010
July 1392 1430 1278 1126 1315 0 1510 0
August 1481 1392 1336 1208 1362 0 1609 0
September 940 1481 1434 1342 1444 0 1772 0
October 994 940 1271 1286 1193 0 1667 0
November 807 994 1138 1247 1075 0 1589 0
December 527 807 914 1123 890 0 1397 0
January 701 527 776 950 704 0 1183 0
February 1291 701 678 794 670 0 997 0
 March 1162 1291 840 864 961 0 1116 0
April 1088 1162 1051 898 1109 0 1213 0
May 1497 1088 1180 954 1151 0 1308 0
June 1781 1497 1249 1148 1307 0 1523 0
2011
July 1843 1781 1455 1364 1557 0 1800 0
August 839 1843 1707 1474 1755 0 1986 0
September 1273 839 1488 1410 1329 0 1856 0
October 912 1273 1318 1447 1257 0 1842 0
November 996 912 1008 1330 1006 0 1632 0
December 792 996 1060 1173 1026 0 1491 0
2012 January 792 900 0 0 0 0 0
 ES-0.1 ES-0.3 ESS AES AESS LTL Naïve SMA-3
Errors
Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
0 MAD 235 254
0 0 0 0 MSE 92122 97918
0 0 0 0 0 0 MAPE 25% 26%
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
 Forecasting Errors for different Techniques

SMA-5 WMA-3 WMA-3S WMA-5 WMA-5S ES-0.1 ES-0.5 ESS AES AESS
Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
308 232 1033 395 1040 0 0 0 0 0
129168 88412 1160249 238031 1176790 0 0 0 0 0
31% 24% 100% 46% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
 LTL
Min
Forecast
0 0
0 0
0% 0%
Seasonally Adjusted Forecast (SAF)

Actual Demand Seasonal Average

Month
Demand
2008 2009 2010 2011
January 437 712 613 701
February 605 732 984 1291
March 722 829 812 1162
April 893 992 1218 1088
May 901 1148 1187 1497
June 1311 1552 1430 1781
July 1055 927 1392 1843
August 975 1284 1481 839
September 822 1118 940 1273
October 893 737 994 912
November 599 983 807 996
December 608 872 527 792
Sum of Sesonal Average Demand
Deseasonalized Average Monthly Demand

Year 1 2 3 4
Total Demand

Slope b
Intercept a

Year (2012)
Forecast
Average
Monthly
Forecast
t (SAF)

Deseasonalized Average SAF

Seasonal Index
Monthly Demand (2012)