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Eicher Motors
Sales stagnates; weakness to persist Rating: Sell
We interacted with Royal Enfield (RE) dealers across key states to Target Price: INR 16,294
assess demand and consumer sentiments on motorcycle sales. Both Downside: 15%
remain weak in June, with walk-ins drying up in the past fortnight. CMP: INR 19,139 (as on 28 June 2019)
Global Markets Research
ticket size); however, consumer sentiments are weak, owing to lack of 25,000
0.2
funds for general trade, and, hence, sentiments remain weak. 20,000
states like Maharashtra, AP+Telengana and Karnataka, it has stagnated Promoter 50.5 49.4 49.3 49.3
at 5-8%. With per capita income of states, (UP, Bihar & Rajasthan) at Institutional Investors 36.9 37.1 37.0 37.0
Other Investors 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.8
one-third of that of high per capita income states, the pace of market
General Public 8.6 9.7 10.0 9.9
share growth in low per capita income states is likely to moderate
Source: BSE
while in high per capita income states it is expected to lose share.
Price performance (%) 3M 6M 12M
Downtrading in the premium segment to continue
Sensex 3.8 10.6 12.4
In FY19, while the premium MC segment outperformed the MC Eicher Motors (7.1) (15.3) (31.3)
industry (11% YoY premium MC growth vs 8% MC industry), a further Ashok Leyland 3.0 (14.6) (32.0)
breakdown shows downtrading in the premium segment was evident Source: Bloomberg
(125-150cc grew 26% YoY and 150-200cc by 2% while the 200cc+
segment declined 5% YoY). With further cost pressures in FY21 owing
to BS VI cost increases, we expect this trend to continue into FY21.
Valuation: reiterate Sell with a revised TP of INR 16,294
With upcoming BSVI cost increases in FY21, we believe margin will
come under further pressure. Thus, despite a realization increase, we
expect an EPS CAGR of 7% over FY20-21E vs ~a 60% CAGR over FY12-
18. We reduce our FY20-21E EPS by 2-4%, owing to margin cuts at RE.
We reiterate Sell with a new SOTP-based TP of INR 16,294 from INR
16,650, with 18x (unchanged) FY21E P/E for RE business and 10x
(unchanged) FY21E EV/EBITDA for VECV.
Key Financials
YE Revenue YoY EBITDA EBITDA Adj PAT YoY Fully DEPS RoE RoCE P/E EV/EBITDA
March (INR mn) (%) (INR mn) margin (%) (INR mn) (%) (INR) (%) (%) (x) (x)
FY18 89,650 27.5 28,076 31.3 21,797 27.2 799.2 31.7 31.1 23.9 16.9
FY19 97,971 9.3 29,031 29.6 22,203 1.9 814.1 27.6 27.1 23.5 16.0
FY20E 106,889 9.1 30,471 28.5 24,872 12.0 912.0 26.0 25.5 21.0 14.9
FY21E 119,177 11.5 32,760 27.5 25,272 1.6 926.6 22.8 22.4 20.7 13.3
Note: pricing as on 28 June 2019; Source: Company, Elara Securities Estimate
Jay Kale, CFA • jay.kale@elaracapital.com • +91 22 6164 8507
Vijay Gyanchandani • vijay.gyanchandani@elaracapital.com • +91 22 6164 8511
Elara Securities (India) Private Limited
Eicher Motors
(INR mn)
29
Less :- Depreciation & Amortization 2,233 3,003 3,401 4,219
(%)
100,000 27.5
28
EBIT 28,644 30,462 31,987 33,811
80,000 27
Less:- Interest Expenses 53 73 20 20
26
PBT 28,591 30,389 31,967 33,791
Less :- Taxes 9,359 10,770 10,293 10,778 60,000 25
FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0
Net Revenues EBITDA Margin
Income from JV and associates 2,566 2,584 3,198 2,259
Adjusted PAT 21,797 22,203 24,872 25,272 Source: Company, Elara Securities Estimate
Add/Less: - Extra-ordinaries (2,201) (175) - -
Reported PAT 19,597 22,027 24,872 25,272
Balance Sheet (INR mn) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Adjusted profit growth trend
Share Capital 272 272 272 272
Reserves 70,028 88,916 102,014 119,485 26,000 27.2 30
Net worth 70,300 89,187 102,286 119,756 25,000 25
Borrowings 1,508 1,868 1,868 1,868
24,000 20
(INR mn)
Deferred Tax (Net) 1,421 2,739 2,739 2,739
12.0
(%)
23,000 15
Other liabilities 1,321 1,538 1,570 1,604
Total Liabilities 74,549 95,331 108,463 125,966 22,000 10
Gross Block 21,342 26,322 40,342 48,342 21,000 1.9 1.6 5
Less:- Accumulated Depreciation 6,364 9,367 12,767 16,986 20,000 0
Net Block 14,978 16,955 27,575 31,356 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Add:- Capital work in progress 1,419 2,721 1,419 1,419 Adjusted PAT PAT Growth
Investments 55,808 49,225 52,204 55,480
Net Working Capital (16,046) (11,300) (15,783) (17,804) Source: Company, Elara Securities Estimate
Cash and Cash Equivalents 12,120 29,653 38,340 50,588
Other Assets 6,269 8,076 4,708 4,927
Total Assets 74,549 95,331 108,463 125,966 Return ratios
Cash Flow Statement (INR mn) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Cash profit adjusted for non cash items 20,442 19,404 20,178 21,982 34 31.7
Add/Less : Working Capital Changes 4,380 (2,695) 4,317 1,836 32
30 27.6
Operating Cash Flow 24,823 16,709 24,496 23,818 31.1
28 26.0
Less:- Capex (7,485) (6,282) (8,718) (8,000)
26
Free Cash Flow 17,338 10,427 15,778 15,818 27.1 22.8
24 25.5
Financing Cash Flow (2,620) (11,342) (11,812) (12,369)
22
Investing Cash Flow (21,450) 4,735 (10,780) (6,007) 22.4
20
Net change in Cash 752 10,102 1,904 5,442 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Ratio Analysis FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Income Statement Ratios (%) ROE (%) ROCE (%)
Revenue Growth 27.5 9.3 9.1 11.5 Source: Company, Elara Securities Estimate
EBITDA Growth 29.1 3.4 5.0 7.5
PAT Growth 27.2 1.9 12.0 1.6
EBITDA Margin 31.3 29.6 28.5 27.5
Net Margin 24.3 22.7 23.3 21.2
Return & Liquidity Ratios
Net Debt/Equity (x) (0.7) (0.6) (0.7) (0.7)
ROE (%) 31.7 27.6 26.0 22.8
ROCE (%) 31.1 27.1 25.5 22.4
Per Share data & Valuation Ratios
Diluted EPS (INR/Share) 799.2 814.1 912.0 926.6
EPS Growth (%) 27.2 1.9 12.0 1.6
DPS (INR/Share) 222.7 227.9 245.5 258.1
P/E Ratio (x) 23.9 23.5 21.0 20.7
EV/EBITDA (x) 16.9 16.0 14.9 13.3
EV/Sales (x) 5.3 4.7 4.2 3.7
Price/Book (x) 7.4 5.9 5.1 4.4
Dividend Yield (%) 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3
Note: pricing as on 28 June 2019; Source: Company, Elara Securities Estimate
Automobiles
dealership received supply of only ~4-5 vehicles from the company. Total 650cc orderbook is at 75 units. In June, it
got 25 units of booking for 650cc. Dealer expects retail sales to come back during the Onam festival in September. It
targets 250 units of retail during Onam. Dealership is carrying inventory of ~40 days currently
MAHARASHTRA
Dealer 3: June was better MoM (enquiries, bookings & retail up MoM). However, YoY was 11-12%. 650cc was doing
well, with ~4-5 months waiting period. Around 70+ bookings were in hand. Walkins have dried up in last few days.
ANDHRA PRADESH
Dealer 4: June retail was 75 units, down ~10% YoY. Enquiries have declined compared to the past year. Booking
was stable MoM for 650cc, with ~two months waiting period. Inventory days was ~25
RAJASTHAN
Dealer 5: Retail was down ~20% YoY. Enquiries and bookings were weak. Currently, it has two months of
inventory.
Dealer 6: Retail was down ~10% in June. Enquiries and walk-ins were down compared to the past year. Dealer sold
eight units of 650cc in June, the most since its launch and has ~two months of waiting with regular enquiries,
especially Interceptor. Currently, it has ~20-25 days of inventory.
GUJARAT
Dealer 7: Retail was below 100 from the usual 130. Classic 350cc & Thunderbird X 650cc supply has been slow,
with retail sales of 5-6 units in June and ~60 bookings in hand. Inventory was at around 15-20 days. Dealer expects
retail to improve from next quarter, owing to the festival season (Raksha bandhan and janmashtami)
KARNATAKA
Dealer 8: There was no growth YoY. In the past six months, 650cc was good (30% of sales for this dealer). Signals &
Gun Metal Grey are only one in demand. 650cc bookings were strong due to better interest rate offering i.e. 6.5%
interest on 650cc vs 9.5% for 350cc pan-India. IDFC, Tata Capital funds the most to RE customers. Dealer has ~180
bookings for 650cc Twins (~75-80% was for Interceptor), with a waiting period at three months. Average retail run-
rate was at ~125-130 (30-35% Interceptor, 1-2% Himalaya and the rest were Classic 350cc & Thunderbird X).
Current inventory was ~100 vehicles, which has considerably higher than ~60 units last year. Most RE growth was
led by Interceptor while Classic & Bullet variants have stagnated
Uttar Pradesh
Dealer 9: Walkins are down by ~50% MoM and ~20% YoY. MoM decline is also a function of marriage season in
May-19. Last 15 days walkins have reduced drastically. Trade advance for dealers by banks has stopped and hence
funding issue for dealers. There is no issue for funding for a customer, however overall sentiment is very weak and
hence seeing many cancellations as well.
Exhibit 1: Low per capita income states grow at a slower pace in FY19
YoY (%) FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
Uttar Pradesh 24.3 64.6 50.5 90.9 73.0 56.8 60.9 25.2
Bihar 220.3 75.9 129.8 104.4 24.1 36.4 51.8 32.2
Low per capita
Rajasthan 50.1 51.1 76.7 54.7 101.4 32.0 28.6 12.1 income states
showing signs of
West Bengal 81.8 72.8 85.8 39.3 49.8 29.1 36.1 10.5 a slowdown
Madhya Pradesh 99.4 67.9 80.9 38.3 69.6 38.0 50.3 24.6
Orissa 126.4 61.7 89.5 38.6 74.2 42.6 56.7 25.5
Jharkhand 12.4 402.6 91.4 83.2 93.9 29.9 38.1 22.9
Assam 109.9 29.7 45.6 75.5 82.6 32.1 57.3 7.7
Total Low per capita income 67.4 68.1 76.5 66.7 66.0 40.4 49.4 21.4
Source: Company, Elara Securities Research
Exhibit 5: Low and high per capita income states Exhibit 6: Market share of low per capita income to
growth to slow significantly over FY19-21 rise 30bp while high per capita income states to drop
60 56.0 10
8.4
50 7.4
8
40 36.5
6
(%)
(%)
30
3.9 4.2
20 15.2
4
10 -3.2
2
0
CAGR FY11-19 CAGR FY19-21E
(10) 0
Automobiles
FY19 FY21E
Lower per capita income states High per capita income states
Lower per capita income states High per capita income states
Source: SIAM, Elara Securities Estimate Source: SIAM, Elara Securities Estimate
(YoY %)
(Units)
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
Bihar 26,693 4.0
Rajasthan 72,072 2.9 Total Volumes Growth
Source: SIAM, Elara Securities Research Source: Company, Elara Securities Research
Exhibit 9: RE volume & dealer growth moderating; Exhibit 10: RE volume stuck at ~62,000 per month for
dealer expansion scope limited the past four months
1,200 50 80,000 30
40 70,000 20
1,000
60,000
(units)
30 10
(units)
800 50,000
(YoY %)
(YoY %)
20 40,000 0
600
10 30,000 (10)
400 20,000
0 (20)
200 10,000
(10)
0 (30)
0 (20)
Jun-18
Apr-18
May-18
Apr-19
May-19
Aug-18
Sep-18
Jul-18
Nov-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
Source: Company, Elara Securities Research Source: Company, Elara Securities Research
Coverage History
35,000
33,000
3
31,000 4 5
29,000
27,000 2
25,000 1
6
23,000
7 8
21,000 11
Automobiles
19,000 10
9
17,000
15,000
Apr-17
Jun-17
Apr-18
Jun-18
Apr-19
Jun-19
May-17
Dec-17
May-18
Dec-18
May-19
Aug-17
Sep-17
Aug-18
Sep-18
Jan-17
Oct-17
Oct-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Feb-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Jul-17
Feb-18
Jul-18
Feb-19
Mar-17
Mar-18
Mar-19
Not Covered Covered
Any clarifications / queries on the proposal as well as any future communication regarding the proposal should be addressed to Elara Securities (India) Private
Limited.
Elara Securities (India) Private Limited was incorporated in July 2007 as a subsidiary of Elara Capital (India) Private Limited.
Elara Securities (India) Private Limited is a SEBI registered Stock Broker in the Capital Market and Futures & Options Segments of National Stock Exchange of India
Limited [NSE], in the Capital Market Segment of BSE Limited [BSE] and a Depository Participant registered with Central Depository Services (India) Limited [CDSL].
Elara Securities (India) Private Limited’s business, amongst other things, is to undertake all associated activities relating to its broking business.
The activities of Elara Securities (India) Private Limited were neither suspended nor has it defaulted with any stock exchange authority with whom it is registered in
last five years. However, during the routine course of inspection and based on observations, the exchanges have issued advise letters or levied minor penalties on
Elara Securities (India) Private Limited for minor operational deviations in certain cases. Elara Securities (India) Private Limited has not been debarred from doing
business by any Stock Exchange / SEBI or any other authorities; nor has the certificate of registration been cancelled by SEBI at any point of time.
Elara Securities (India) Private Limited offers research services primarily to institutional investors and their employees, directors, fund managers, advisors who are
registered or proposed to be registered.
Details of Associates of Elara Securities (India) Private Limited are available on group company website www.elaracapital.com
Elara Securities (India) Private Limited is maintaining arms-length relationship with its associate entities.
Research Analyst or his/her relative(s) may have financial interest in the subject company. Elara Securities (India) Private Limited does not have any financial
interest in the subject company, whereas its associate entities may have financial interest. Research Analyst or his/her relative does not have actual/beneficial
ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of Research Report. Elara
Securities (India) Private Limited does not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company at the end of the month immediately
preceding the date of publication of Research Report. Associate entities of Elara Securities (India) Private Limited may have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or
more securities of the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of Research Report. Research Analyst or his/her
relative or Elara Securities (India) Private Limited or its associate entities does not have any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the
Research Report.
Research Analyst or his/her relative(s) has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company.
Research analyst or Elara Securities (India) Private Limited have not received any compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months. Associate
entities of Elara Securities (India) Private Limited may have received compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months. Research analyst or Elara
Securities (India) Private Limited or its associate entities have not managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past twelve
months. Research analyst or Elara Securities (India) Private Limited or its associates have not received any compensation for investment banking or merchant
banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months. Research analyst or Elara Securities (India) Private Limited or its associate
entities may have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject
company or third party in connection with the Research Report in the past twelve months.
8
Elara Securities (India) Private Limited
The information contained in this note is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Although
we endeavor to provide accurate and timely information, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will
continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the
particular situation.
Elara Capital Inc.’s affiliate did not manage an offering for Eicher Motors Limited.
Elara Capital Inc.’s affiliate did not receive compensation from Eicher Motors Limited in the last 12 months.
Elara Capital Inc.’s affiliate does not expect to receive compensation from Eicher Motors Limited in the next 3 months.
This material is based upon information that we consider to be reliable, but Elara Capital Inc. does not warrant its completeness, accuracy or adequacy and it
should not be relied upon as such.
This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or
strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice,
and are only correct as of the stated date of their issue. Prices, values or income from any securities or investments mentioned in this report may fall against the
interests of the investor and the investor may get back less than the amount invested. Where an investment is described as being likely to yield income, please
note that the amount of income that the investor will receive from such an investment may fluctuate. Where an investment or security is denominated in a
different currency to the investor’s currency of reference, changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of or from that
investment to the investor. The information contained in this report does not constitute advice on the tax consequences of making any particular investment
decision. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs and is not intended as a recommendation
of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies to you. Before acting on any recommendation in this material, you should consider whether it is
suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice.
Certain statements in this report, including any financial projections, may constitute “forward-looking statements.” These “forward-looking statements” are not
guarantees of future performance and are based on numerous current assumptions that are subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Actual
future performance could differ materially from these “forward-looking statements” and financial information.
9
Elara Securities (India) Private Limited
Ravi Sundar Muthukrishnan Ph.D Head - Institutional Equity Research ravi.muthukrishnan@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8572
Research
Akhil Parekh Analyst Midcap akhil.parekh@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8519
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Biju Samuel Analyst Quantitative & Alternate Strategy biju.samuel@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8505
Gagan Dixit Analyst Oil & Gas, Aviation gagan.dixit@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8504
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Harshit Kapadia Analyst Capital Goods harshit.kapadia@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8542
Karan Taurani Analyst Media & Entertainment karan.taurani@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8513
Jay Kale, CFA Analyst Auto & Auto Ancillaries jay.kale@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8507
Param Desai Analyst Pharmaceuticals, Healthcare, Real Estate param.desai@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8528
Pradeep Kumar Kesavan, CFA Analyst Strategy pradeep.kesavan@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8541
Pratik Tholiya Analyst Agrochemicals, Travel & Hospitality pratik.tholiya@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8518
Rakesh Kumar Analyst Banking & Financials rakesh.kumar@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8559
Ravi Menon Analyst IT Services, Internet, Telecom ravi.menon@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8502
Ravi Sodah Analyst Cement, Building Materials ravi.sodah@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8517
Ritika Dua Analyst Diversified Financials ritika.dua@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8526
Rupesh Sankhe Analyst Utilities, Renewables, Capital Goods rupesh.sankhe@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8581
Sagarika Mukherjee Analyst FMCG, Dairy sagarika.mukherjee@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8594
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Aarti Rao Associate Pharmaceuticals, Healthcare, Real Estate aarti.rao@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8535
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Ashish Agrawal Associate IT Services, Internet, Telecom ashish.agrawal@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8573
Chintan Shah Associate Banking & Financials chintan.shah@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8521
Jatan Gogri Associate Economics jatan.gogri@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8591
Priyanka Trivedi Associate Agrochemicals, Travel & Hospitality priyanka.trivedi@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8588
Rachael Alva Associate Oil & Gas, Aviation rachael.alva@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8525
Vijay Gyanchandani Associate Auto & Auto Ancillaries vijay.gyanchandani@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8511
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