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While discussing the background of the issue please

suggest the appropriate strategy to deal with
Afghanistan imbroglio
The ongoing Afghan imbroglio started when Soviet forces entered into Afghanistan in 1979.
The people of Afghanistan, prepared by the USA, decided to fight a proxy war with the Soviets
with the help of Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Pakistan until the ousting of the Soviets in the year1989.
Then a civil war started in Afghanistan between the various sects who fought with the Soviets to
get control of Kabul. Ultimately the Taliban took control of Kabul in 1996 controlling almost 90%
of Afghanistan. The remainder remained under the control of the Northern Alliance. The Taliban
remained in control of Kabul till 2001when NATO forces ousted them under the command of USA.

Historical context: South-East Afghanistan is a mostly Pashto-speaking region which is

contiguous to the Western border of Pakistan harboring many Pashtun tribes on the Pakistani side
as well.

The British after capturing almost whole of the Sub Continent started advancing towards
Afghanistan, but they had to face severe resistance by the Pushto speaking mountainous tribes on
the present Western border of Pakistan (then under the influence of Afghanistan). The British
ultimately decided to reach an agreement with the Afghan government to demarcate the boundaries
of their respective spheres of influence in this region. Accordingly, a border was drawn in 1893
named as ‘Durand Line border’ as a result of meetings between Mortimer Durand from the British
side and Abdur Rahman Khan from Afghanistan side. After the partition of the subcontinent in
1947, this Duran Line border became the Western border of Pakistan with Afghanistan.

Since Pashtun tribes were living on both sides of the border between Pakistan and
Afghanistan, they were not checked from moving to and from Afghanistan with the change of the
season with their herds of sheep a practice going on since old times.
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When the Soviet forces entered into Afghanistan in 1979, and the resistance movement
waged by various warlords started against the Soviets, many Afghans started pouring into Pakistan
as refugees reaching over 3 million by the end of the 1980s. Pakistan hosted these refugees with
the help of United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) at various camps
established along its border.

Since Pashtun tribes living on the Western borders of Pakistan had deep relations with their
brethren on the Afghan side, therefore, Pakistani side happened to be the safe fleeing place and a
training ground for the Mujahedeen fighters who used to cross into Afghanistan to fight against
the Soviet forces there. Because of the long stay in Pakistan, many of the Afghan Mujahideen
including from other Islamic countries decided to permanently stay in this part of Pakistan and
many married local women even after the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989.

After the withdrawal of the Soviet forces in 1989 a civil war started among the various
warlords of Afghanistan. Taliban emerged as the strongest amongst them all who ultimately
managed to establish a government in Kabul in 1996. They cultivated friendly relations with
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Pakistan. However, after the overthrow of the Taliban government in 2001 by the United States
and its allies, Afghan-Pakistan relations became strained as the new government was pro India and
anti-Taliban. The present Afghan government believes that the former Mujahedeen, Taliban, al
Qaeda staying in the tribal belt of Pakistan are engaged in anti-Afghan activities with the objective
to establish the Taliban government again. The independent political analysts believe that the
reason behind the present Afghan Taliban movement is that Taliban being ethnic Pashtuns are
hugely under-represented in the Afghan government whereas ethnic Tajiks from the country's
north and Panjsher Valley are predominant in the government, as compared to their population in
the country.

The Taliban militant groups kept on carrying attacks inside Afghanistan. They managed
attacks from within Afghanistan and also with the support of their groups inside the tribal belt of
Pakistan in some instances. This all agitated NATO forces and the Afghan government. It will not
be out of place to mention here that total strength of NATO collation forces deployed in
Afghanistan is around 17000, the major portion belongs to USA i.e. 14000. On the other hand, the
active Taliban fighters are around 40,000 (Source Aljazeera, 19th January 2019).

In the past Afghan government and NATO forces planned to cross the Pakistani border to
chase Taliban militants but with the severe resistance of the Pakistan government, Americans
decided to rely on drone attacks only. The government of Pakistan was, however, pressurized to
take strict measures by not allowing the Taliban to cross the border. But Pakistan maintained that
it was not possible for it to completely seal off and police the long mountainous Pak-Afghan
border. However, relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan remained extremely strained
because of the terrorist attacks inside Afghanistan the onus of which was mostly put on the
Pakistani Taliban and also accusing the ISI in aiding the militants, which was denied by Pakistan.

It is widely believed in Pakistan that excessive Indian presence in Afghanistan also supports
instability in Baluchistan, a big discredit to the Afghan government and a factor and hindrance to
normalization of relations between the two countries. Some of the Pakistani militant groups
engaged in anti-Pakistani activities are also sheltering in North-East Afghanistan particularly those
who were ousted from Swat by the Pakistan Army.

Afghan-Pak Transit Trade Agreement 2010 and aftermath: Afghan-Pak Transit

Trade Agreement (APTTA) was signed between the two states in Oct 2010 enabling the two
nations to ship trucks into each other’s territory. Afghan trucks were also allowed to pass through
Pakistan to go to India via Wahga border and also via Karachi and Gwadar. It was also agreed to
construct railway track in Afghanistan to connect with the Pakistan Railways.

However, relations between America and Pakistan went to lowest ebb after killing of 24
Pakistani soldiers at Salala check post by NATO forces and Pakistan took a firm stand by cutting
off the NATO supply routes and getting the Shamsi airbase evacuated from the Americans which
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was being used for the drone attacks. However, supply was restored after a long stalemate and
assurances.

American doesn’t like an indefinite and long stay of its soldiers on Afghan soil and receive
the dead bodies of their soldiers, but simultaneously not at the cost of losing politico-economic
control of the country and influence in the adjoining countries particularly Pakistan, Central Asia,
Iran, and Turkey. Additionally, India also doesn’t want power pendulum once again moving
towards the Taliban. In line with this strategy, President Obama announced to leave Afghanistan
by 2014 with a nominal presence there. Accordingly, the number of trained indigenous forces to
take control of the situation after the NATO withdrawal was to be increased. Efforts were also
made to engage with the Taliban in dialogue to arrive at a peace settlement in Afghanistan. The
option to engage Pakistan for a meaningful settlement with the Taliban was not considered
appropriate by the NATO alliance. However, during the Trump regime, Pakistan was asked to use
its good offices to convince the Taliban to come on the negotiating table in December 2018. US
envoy also visited Afghanistan and Pakistan in January 2019 to associate the Taliban to start a
political dialogue. US government once again asked Pakistan to arrange for the dialogue. However,
the Taliban were not willing for direct talks with the Afghan government. They say that they will
talk to them after they finalize deal with USA (BBC).

Now it is believed that a breakthrough between the Taliban and the Americans has been
achieved as hinted at during the meeting between President Trump and Imran khan at Washington
DC in July and September 2019. The things have also to move into positive direction for the reason
that it is for the first time that as reported by BBC that in September 2019 elections turnout was
just 25% lowest in all the previous elections under the coalition government. Moreover Taliban
control maximum part of Afghanistan.

One thing can be said with sufficient amount of certainty that peace in Afghanistan cannot
be ensured unless a genuinely democratic government is not established in Afghanistan. At the
moment the government at the center is not genuinely represented with the majority Pashto
speaking people of Afghanistan. The minority groups like Tajiks, Uzbeks, and Hazara are more
represented in the government than their actual populace in the country. Therefore the USA and
its allies must try to establish a truly representative government in Afghanistan after conducting
free and fair elections under the auspices of General Assembly of UNO to form a sovereign and
independent image of the new Afghan government.

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