Landscape and Urban Planning 97 (2010) 202–212

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Landscape and Urban Planning

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Rail-based transit-oriented development: Lessons from New York City and

Hong Kong
Becky P.Y. Loo a,∗ , Cynthia Chen b , Eric T.H. Chan c
a
Department of Geography, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong
b
Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, The University of Washington, United States
c
CKM Asia Limited, Hong Kong

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: The idea of using transit-oriented development (TOD) in reducing automobile dependency and improving
Received 23 November 2009 the sustainability of transportation activities has gained wider support in recent years. Research find-
Received in revised form 27 April 2010 ings have shown that residents living in TOD neighborhood used transit more frequently than people
Accepted 1 June 2010
having similar socio-economic characteristics but living elsewhere. Most of the existing studies on TOD
Available online 3 July 2010
and transit ridership used recently developed sites or suburban neighborhoods as case studies. However,
limited research studies have been conducted on TOD using city-wide station-level data. By using the
Keywords:
heavy rail systems in New York City and Hong Kong as case studies, factors which are expected to con-
Transit-oriented development
Rail transit ridership
tribute to higher rail transit ridership are analyzed by using multiple regressions. The results show that
Land use a combination of variables in different dimensions, including (i) land use, (ii) station characteristics, (iii)
Station patronage socio-economic and demographic characteristics and (iv) inter-modal competition were important in
New York City accounting for the variability of rail transit ridership. In particular, station characteristics appeared to be
Hong Kong the most important dimension in affecting average weekday railway patronage. Future research on TOD
may pay more attention on examining how various aspects of station characteristics can be modified
to increase railway patronage. Besides, car ownership is both significant and positively associated with
railway patronage. The result suggests that higher car ownership may be associated with more pick-ups,
drop-offs and park-and-ride activities to the transit stations for the longer transit trip legs. Furthermore,
this study shows that place-specific factors are important in influencing railway patronage.
© 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction an urban form in a relatively high density, compact and mixed

The search for effective policy measures to reduce automo-
bile usage and its associated negative social and environmental
impact has been a major focus of academic research in the past
few decades. The most commonly adopted policy measures focus
on limiting transportation demand, such as restraining automobile
use by imposing road pricing, parking controls and traffic calming
on the one hand, and/or increasing transportation supply, includ-
ing road construction, rail investment and providing park-and-ride
facilities on the other. However, it is recognized that the effective-
ness of policy measures that focus only on transportation issues can
only be limited, as there are many other factors influencing peoples’
travel behavior.
One of the important factors that influences travel behav-
ior is planning and land use. Under the guiding principles of
transit-oriented development (TOD), the basic ideas are to design
∗ Corresponding author. Tel.: +852 28597024; fax: +852 25598994.
E-mail addresses: bpyloo@hku.hk (B.P.Y. Loo), qzchen@u.washington.edu
(C. Chen), ericthchan@gmail.com (E.T.H. Chan).
form, and to provide high quality, efficient mass transportation
services, together with a pedestrian friendly environment. Accord-
ingly, a number of strategies for development, such as smart
growth, transit-joint development, neo-traditional development
and transit-focused development, have been proposed. Although
the meanings of these terms are not exactly the same, they share
some common elements, such as the promotion of mixed develop-
ment close to transit (Cervero et al., 2002). Hence, these strategies
are broadly taken under the concept of TOD in this paper. Most
importantly, it is believed that TOD can help mitigate the problems
associated with high automobile dependency.
Most of the existing studies on TOD focused on the suburban
areas and greenfield sites, in which the transit system and urban
development took place hand in hand. Not much attention has been
put on TOD in large metropolitan cities that already have well-
developed transit systems. In these cities, transit stations are often
located in high density areas, such as the Central Business Districts
(CBDs), and are having high rail ridership. Nonetheless, the tradi-
tional urban form of a single urban core has gradually been replaced
by a more polycentric form even in these large metropolitan cites
(Loo and Chow, 2008; Newman et al., 1995). The development

0169-2046/$ – see front matter © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.landurbplan.2010.06.002
 B.P.Y. Loo et al. / Landscape and Urban Planning 97 (2010) 202–212
of large-scale residential estates, office and industrial clusters at
the suburb or fringe of the cities reshaped the urban structure.
These land use factors, together with other behavioral and socio-
economic factors, can have significant impact on transit ridership.
This study aims to examine the factors that influence transit rid-
ership and to quantify their relationship. Attention is put on metro
systems in large metropolitan cites of over 5 million inhabitants.
Hong Kong and New York City were chosen for the analysis. New
York City and Hong Kong are two large metropolitan cities in the
world. New York City is a major cultural, commercial and finan-
cial centre not only for the United States but also the whole world
(Sassen, 2001). Hong Kong, as a Special Administrative Region of
China, is one of the most prosperous cities in Asia; it is well known
for its high population density and compact urban form (Loo and
Chow, 2008; Tong and Wong, 1997). One of the major reasons
for choosing these two cities as our case studies is that both New
York City and Hong Kong have well-established heavy rail systems,
characterized by an extensive network structure and high transit
ridership. The heavy rail systems of these two cities form an indis-
pensable part of their transportation systems. The New York City
subway system has a monthly ridership of about 135 million (MTA
NYC Transit, 2008a,b). According to the American Community Sur-
vey (The American Community Survey, 2005), about 38.1% of the
work trips in New York City were made by the subway system. Com-
bined with the other public transportation modes, like buses and
ferries, this makes New York City ranked first among all American
cities with the highest percentage (54.2%) of daily commute trips
made by public transit (including bus/trolley bus, streetcar/trolley
car, subway, railroad, and ferryboat) (The American Community
Survey, 2005). In Hong Kong, public transportation accounted for
as many as 90% of all person trips, and the railways accounted for
37% of average daily public transportation trips in 2006 (Transport
Department, 2009). Besides, the two railway systems in New York
City and Hong Kong are also among the busiest in the world (MTA
NYC Transit, 2008a). In terms of annual ridership, the New York City
subway (with about 660 miles of tracks, 26 subway lines and 468
stations) ranked fourth in the world and had an annual ridership of
1.56 billion in 2007 (MTA NYC Transit, 2008a,b). The MTR system
in Hong Kong (with 104.5 miles of tracks, 10 railway lines and 80
stations) ranked ninth and had an annual ridership of 867 million
(MTR Corporation, 2008). Figs. 1 and 2 show the railway network
and the major economic activity centres of New York City and Hong
Kong respectively.
It is recognized that New York City and Hong Kong are very
different in other geographical, cultural, institutional and politi-
cal aspects. The aim of using these two cities as case studies is to
examine the common factors influencing rail transit ridership in
the hope of developing useful policy implications to promote TOD
so that urban transportation can be developed in a more sustain-
able manner. To achieve the above aims, the paper is organized
as follows. Section 2 provides a brief literature review about TOD
in different parts of the world. It is followed by Section 3 on data
and methodology. Section 4 presents the results and discussion for
the multiple regression analyses of the individual models for New
York City and Hong Kong, and the combined model. Finally, the
conclusion and some suggestions for further research are provided
in Section 5.
2. Literature review: land use, transit and travel behavior
According to Handy (2005), studies on the impact of land use
on travel behavior can be traced to the late 1970s, when scholars
started to study the relationship between density and transit use.
In the early 1990s, the work of Newman and Kenworthy (1989),
which compared the density and gasoline consumption in various
203
large cities, intensified the discussion. After that, the emergence of
the new urbanism movement and neo-traditional designs in the
1990s led to an increase in research studies which examined the
relationship between the built environment and travel behavior. In
particular, the research focus was on examining the ways in which
various factors of the built environment influenced different types
of travel behavior, such as vehicle-miles-traveled, modal choice and
number of trips (Cervero and Kovkelman, 1997; Frank and Pivo,
1994; Levinson and Kumar, 1997; Loo, 2009).
In recent years, the focus of many studies on TOD shifted to
examine the issue of causality between the built environment and
travel behavior. The problem of self-selection is particularly note-
worthy because it is unclear whether travel behavior is affected by
the built environment (successful TOD encourages people to reduce
the use of automobile and use transit more) or not (people who like
to use transit would choose to live near transit stations) (Cao et al.,
2007; Handy et al., 2005, 2006).
Based on the methodology used, these existing studies on
TOD can be classified into three categories – simulation studies,
descriptive studies and multivariate statistical analyses (Boarnet
and Crane, 2001). Simulation studies use hypothetical neighbor-
hoods and travel demand forecasting models to estimate the impact
of changes in urban from on travel behavior. The idea is to con-
struct a simplified and strictly controlled environment, and apply
it to alternative situations to examine the variations under differ-
ent scenarios. However, these simulation studies, as pointed out by
Handy (1996), are not intended to explain behavior, rather, as the
studies greatly simplified both the urban form and travel behav-
ior, they only generate speculative results. As a result, the results
cannot inform policy-makers very well.
Descriptive studies provide useful data on actual behaviors
in different situations. For instance, Lund et al. (2004) provides
detailed descriptions on the TOD survey sites in California. Porter
(1998) studied 19 transit-focused development projects, and com-
pared the policies, regulations and programs that encouraged
station area development. The typical method is to compare the
travel behavior by dividing settlements into different categories
based on their land use patterns. The main advantage of descriptive
studies is its ability to show a general picture of travel behavior and
provide insights for further studies. However, given that descriptive
studies do not control for other non-land use factors, it is difficult
to generalize the results and show explicitly the influence of any
one factor in affecting travel behavior within a neighborhood.
Compared with simulation studies and descriptive studies, mul-
tivariate statistical analysis is getting more popular because of
its advantage in handling multiple factors simultaneously and its
ability to explain rather than describe travel behavior. Travel “out-
come” measures, such as the number of trips, commute length and
modal choice, can be used as dependent variables, to be explained
by variables that include both socio-demographic and land use
variables. The influence of these explanatory variables can be quan-
tified by the magnitude and statistical significance of the estimated
coefficients.
The problem of urban sprawl and automobile dependency is
more serious in North American countries compared with other
countries in Europe and Asia (Newman et al., 1995). This situation
can be attributed to the postwar growth of the sales of automo-
biles and single-family homes. According to the sprawl index of
Ewing et al. (2002), the metropolitan regions in the United States
having the greatest degree of sprawl were Riverside, Greensboro,
Raleigh and Atlanta. Research studies focusing on sprawl and trans-
portation in cities in other countries are relatively scarce (European
Commission, 2006). Bernick and Cervero (1996) conducted TOD
studies on a number of non-American cities, such as Singapore,
Tokyo and Stockholm. The circumstances of each case were stud-
ied in great details, and the factors contributing to the success of
204 B.P.Y. Loo et al. / Landscape and Urban Planning 97 (2010) 202–212
Fig. 1. The railway network and key economic centre of New York City.
TOD in these cities were examined. A recent work by Cervero and
Murakami (2008) studied rail and property development of the
Mass Transit Railway system in Hong Kong.
Another important methodological aspect of research on land
use and travel behavior is the unit of analysis. Handy (1996) clas-
sified the studies into aggregate and disaggregate studies based
on the unit of analysis. Aggregate study refers to the use or anal-
ysis of data at zonal, census tract, neighborhood or city level, and
disaggregate study refers to data or analyses at individual or house-
hold level. The detailed study of TOD development in various cities
by Bernick and Cervero (1996) is an example of aggregate studies,
which used city as the unit of analysis. Other more localized studies
used neighborhoods or counties as the unit of analysis (Boarnet and
Compin, 1999; Loo, 2009; Lund, 2006). A more detailed literature
review summarizing the similarities and differences of the studies
in land use and travel behavior can be found in Crane (2000) and
Ewing and Cervero (2001).
In light of the above research studies, there are still a num-
ber of gaps or limitations in the studies of TOD. Firstly, a number
of research studies adopted the descriptive method and tried to
explain the factors that contribute to the success of TOD at a par-
ticular site only. Nonetheless, not much research used multivariate
statistical methods to conduct comparative studies of TODs includ-
ing both American cities and other European and Asian cities. In
addition, most of the existing studies either use aggregate data
(zonal, district, or neighborhood level) or disaggregate data (indi-
vidual or household level) for analysis. This is understandable
because data at these units of analysis are more easily available
from the governments or transportation agencies. However, in
the study of TOD, a more detailed unit of analysis, based on the
“catchment” area around transit stations are more appropriate in
capturing the spatial dimension, including land use characteristics
that may directly influence transit ridership.
3. Materials and methods
In this study, the station-level patronage data of Hong Kong
were obtained directly from the two railway operating compa-
nies, the Mass Transit Railway Corporation (MTRC) and Kowloon
Canton Railway Corporation (KCRC). The Kowloon Canton Railway
Corporation (KCRC) was merged with the Mass Transit Railway Cor-
poration Limited (MTRCL) on 2nd December 2007 to become the
only rapid transit operator in Hong Kong. Thereafter, all the railway
lines operated by KCRC were transferred to MTRCL after the merger.
The station-level patronage data of New York were obtained from
the Metro card data provided by the New York Metropolitan
 B.P.Y. Loo et al. / Landscape and Urban Planning 97 (2010) 202–212
Fig. 2. The railway network and key economic centre of Hong Kong.
Transportation Authority (NYMTA). The average weekday railway
patronage data of 2005 in both cities were obtained. These data
were at the station level. However, the breakdowns of station data
by month, by the day of the week or the time of the day are unavail-
able for detailed analysis. To ensure the consistency of data, the
independent variables were also collected for 2005. If the data for
2005 were not available, the closest data accessible were chosen.
A mini-scale study of 14 out of the 80 stations of Hong Kong has
been conducted in 2007 and reported in a conference paper (Loo
and Lam, 2007). Except where the data are missing, the current
study includes all 80 stations of Hong Kong and 468 stations in
New York City in the analysis. Furthermore, new variables, such as
parking areas, the year of operation of the railway station and dis-
tance from the midtown, have been developed to capture various
factors which affect railway patronage. Generally, the explanatory
variables used in these two regression models are grouped under
four dimensions: (i) land use, (ii) station characteristics, (iii) socio-
economic and demographic characteristics and (iv) inter-modal
competition. The details of these independent variables are shown
205
in Table 1. It is recognized that the set of independent variables is
quite restricted because of the limited data availability at the street
block level and the different statistics collected in the two cities. In
addition, the relatively small number of observations in Hong Kong
(n = 79) made it difficult to build a powerful regression model with
many independent variables (Hair et al., 1995).
Given the fact that New York City and Hong Kong are different
in various aspects, factors that are conducive to railway patronage
may not be the same. Therefore, two separate regression models,
with potentially different numbers and/or combinations of inde-
pendent variables, are built for New York City and Hong Kong in
the first part of the analysis. Moreover, a number of collinearity
and multicollinearity diagnostics, such as the Condition Index, Pro-
portion of Variance of Coefficients, Tolerance and Variance Inflation
Factor (VIF), are used to ensure that collinearity and multicollinear-
ity are not problems in these two models. In the first place, a
threshold value of 30 for the Condition Index is chosen to diagnose
the problem of collinearity and multicollinearity. If the Condition
Index is above 30, the Proportion of Variance of Coefficients should
206 B.P.Y. Loo et al. / Landscape and Urban Planning 97 (2010) 202–212

Table 1
Details of the independent variables.

New York City Hong Kong

Dimension Variable Details Mean S.D. n Mean S.D. n

Patronage 12,174.06 15,881.57 438 43,888.38 29,443.7 79

Land use C/R Total commercial/residential floor area – – – 25,993.04 64,023.02 79

in sq. m.
COM Total commercial floor area in sq. m. 6,891,715.39 13,738,482.32 411 3,291,404.98 5,434,398.31 79
GAR Total garage floor area in sq. m. 238,795.39 326,997.16 406 – – –
GAR DUM Garage area smaller than cumulative 0.90 0.29 438 0.97 0.16 79
90th percentile (dummy variable)
MIXED Mixed land use (dummy variable) 0.73 0.45 412 0.44 0.50 79
PARK Total off-street parking floor area in sq. – – – 12,020.24 11,555.30 79
m.
Station characteristics CBD DUM Central Business District (dummy 0.17 0.37 412 0.32 0.47 49
variable)
DIST MID Generalized travel cost from station to 11.73 3.69 432 7.69 3.28 79
Midtown in US dollars
INTER Major interchange station (dummy 0.07 0.25 438 0.19 0.40 79
variable)
YRS OP Years of operation 84.82 15.86 383 21.39 17.80 79

Socio-economic and CARS Car ownership per household 0.09 0.05 411 0.17 0.13 79
demographic POP S Population size 16,002.00 8403.74 411 28,590.64 17,686.36 79
characteristics POP D Population size per residential floor 27,629.33 9241.32 411 – – –
area
EMPOVERPOP Employment over population 15,309.79 32,964.43 412 17,453.24 22,349.44 79

Inter-modal competition BUS Number of bus stops 27.18 13.36 412 21.78 12.31 79

Note: Not all independent variables tested are shown. Only the descriptive statistics of variables included in the three final regression models are listed.

not exceed 0.90 for two or more coefficients in any regression
dimension. The other two additional indices are Tolerance and the
Variance Inflation Factor (VIF). For the former, a lower bound of 0.10
is set. For the latter, a threshold of 10 is used (Hair et al., 1995). In
each city, the model that passes the collinearity and multicollinear-
ity tests, having the highest explanatory power, and the highest
number of significant independent variables would be chosen as
the final model (Hair et al., 1995). Moreover, the significance level
of 0.05 is used throughout the analysis as a decision rule in reporting
statistically significant variables. Theoretically, multiple regression
assumes that each observation is independent. In reality, there are
different ways that the observations may be correlated. Hence,
while efforts are made to ensure that the data quality is reasonably
good, residual plots are generated to identify consistent patterns
which may denote problems of nonlinearity and heteroscedasticity
(Hair et al., 1995). Moreover, instead of testing spatial autocorrela-
tion directly (Anselin and Rey, 1991; Cliff and Ord, 1972; Leung et
al., 2000; McMillen, 2003), different independent variables which
are directly related to the spatial location of the stations, such as
the distance to midtown, the CBD dummy variable, and the railway
lines that the stations belong to, are developed to identify factors
which may affect transit ridership and help to further promote TOD.
After constructing two individual best-fit regression models for
New York City and Hong Kong, the next step is to combine the
dataset of these two cities and develop a combined multiple regres-
sion model. By comparing the results of the combined model and
the individual models of New York City and Hong Kong, a clearer
picture of the general relationships between various dimensions
of factors affecting railway patronage can be obtained. Since the
unit of measurement for some of the variables in the two datasets
is not the same, some transformations have been conducted. The
transformations include, firstly, the conversion of the unit of mea-
surement in New York City to the metric scale, and, secondly, the
transformation of the total garage area in Hong Kong into a new
dummy variable of small garage area (that is, less than 90 percentile
of the city’s own data set). After that, the variables that are avail-
able in both datasets are combined to form the new variables for
this part of the analysis. Moreover, a new dummy variable – the NYC
dummy – is created to distinguish transit stations in the two cities.
This dummy variable would capture the “uniqueness” of the two
cities, which was recognized at the beginning of the paper. Besides,
due to the great differences in the number of observations in Hong
Kong (n = 79) and New York City (n = 406), New York City would
have a larger impact on the results of the combined model. Hence,
data weighting is applied. The weights are determined by the ratio
between the number of observations in Hong Kong and that of New
York City (Richardson et al., 1995). Moreover, the combined regres-
sion model should pass all collinearity and multicollinearity tests,
and should have the highest explanatory power and the highest
number of statistically significant independent variables (Hair et
al., 1995).
4. Results and discussion
4.1. Multiple regression analyses for New York City and Hong
Kong
Table 2 shows the regression results for the final regression
models of the two cities. The final regression models of New York
City and Hong Kong have an adjusted R-square of 0.74 and 0.59
respectively, that means about 74 and 59% of the variability of the
dependent variable – average weekday patronage entry at metro
stations – can be explained by the variability of the independent
variables included in these two models correspondingly. Both mod-
els pass the collinearity and multicollinearity tests. For the New
York City model, the Condition Index is 17.15, the lowest Tolerance
among all variables is 0.407 and the maximum VIF is 2.458. For the
Hong Kong model, the Condition Index is 13.87, the lowest Toler-
ance is 0.439 and maximum VIF is 2.28. In addition, none of the
bivariate correlation among the independent variables exceeds 0.7
for both models. These indices suggest that collinearity and multi-
collinearity are not problems. Moreover, the residual plots do not
display any discernable pattern which denotes problems of nonlin-
earity or heteroscedasticity. There are six independent variables in
the model of New York City, and all of them are significant at the
0.05 level. For the Hong Kong model, there are nine variables; all are
 B.P.Y. Loo et al. / Landscape and Urban Planning 97 (2010) 202–212 207

Table 2
Final regression models of New York City and Hong Kong.

Dimension Variable New York City Hong Kong

B SE Beta coeff. t Sig. B SE Beta coeff. t Sig.

Constant 15,554.01 1977.50 7.87 0.00 −31,468.99 10,461.63 −3.01 0.00

C/R 0.01 0.00 0.32 3.39 0.00

PARK 0.08 0.02 0.32 3.40 0.00
Land use MIXED 10,629.22 4866.84 0.18 2.18 0.03
GAR DUM −6160.87 1145.75 −0.16 −5.38 0.00
COM 0.00 0.00 0.21 5.78 0.00

YRS OP 698.29 123.62 0.42 5.65 0.00

Station characteristics INTER 35,242.99 1602.50 0.60 21.99 0.00 17,987.12 5776.97 0.24 3.11 0.00
DIST MID −715.42 124.18 −0.23 −5.76 0.00

CARS 28,070.24 9106.93 0.11 3.08 0.00 60,238.57 20,515.90 0.26 2.94 0.01
Socio-economic and
POP D 3.06 1.34 0.18 2.29 0.03
demographic
POP S 0.23 0.04 0.17 5.58 0.00
characteristics
EMPOVERPOP −3702.71 1361.32 −0.30 −2.72 0.01

Inter-modal competition BUS 860.67 216.03 0.36 3.98 0.00

Adjusted R-square 0.74 0.59

Number of observations (n) 406 79

significant at the 0.05 level. It should be noted that the number of
observations for the Hong Kong model (n = 79) is adequate but a lit-
tle bit small for a multiple regression model with nine explanatory
variables (Hair et al., 1995).
It is observed that factors that are conducive to railway patron-
age are from various dimensions in both models. In the land
use dimension, the two final models have different independent
variables but many of them are similar in nature. Commercial
floor area is a significant variable in influencing railway patron-
age in both models. The mixed commercial/residential floor area
(C/R) was favorable to day railway patronage in the Hong Kong
model (B = 0.01, p = 0.00). In Hong Kong, when the commer-
cial/residential floor area increased by 10,000 m2 , average weekday
railway patronage would tend to increase by 100. Similarly, com-
mercial floor area (COM) is positively related to railway patronage
in the New York City model (B = 0.00, p = 0.00). In New York City,
when the commercial floor area increased by 10,000 m2 , average
weekday railway patronage would tend to increase by 20. The
results confirm that commercial-related land use, which is common
at the downtown areas of large metropolitan cities, is conducive to
railway patronage. Another variable worth discussion is the vari-
able related to parking areas in the two models. In the Hong Kong
model, parking floor area shows a positive and significant rela-
tionship with railway patronage (B = 0.08, p = 0.00). This can be
explained by the co-existence of extensive parking floor area at high
patronage stations, which are often associated with massive com-
posite/mixed developments owned by the railway company above
most of the major railway stations in Hong Kong. These shopping
malls and housing developments often provide substantial amount
of parking spaces. In the New York City model, a dummy variable
showing stations with small garage area (GAR DUM: defined as
smaller than 53,202 m2 , which is lower than the 90th percentile)
is statistically significant, and with a negative regression coeffi-
cient (B = −7705.19). The results show limited garage area in the
vicinity of metro stations could have negative impact on railway
patronage. The direct inclusion of the size of the garage areas in
the regression model would lead to a deterioration of the model
fit. This is probably because of the general availability of abun-
dant parking spaces near metro stations in New York City. Hence,
the provision of larger garage areas near particular metro stations
would not contribute much to railway patronage. Nonetheless, a
lack of garage areas would lead to bottlenecks. Last but not least,
the mixed land use dummy variable (co-existence of all land use
types within the stations’ buffer area) is statistically significant in
the Hong Kong model (B = 10,629.22, p = 0.03). The result reconfirms
the notion that mixed land use is conducive to railway patronage.
In particular, mixed land use can help to generate bi-directional
travel demand throughout the day.
For the station characteristics dimension, although only a few
variables are included in the final models, the significance levels
of these variables are relatively high in both models. The results
suggest that the characteristics of metro stations are important in
influencing patronage. In other words, strategies that try to increase
railway patronage should put more attention to station character-
istics variables. In the New York City model, the variable showing
whether the station is an interchange station (INTER) is the most
statistically significant, with a t-value of 21.99; its regression coef-
ficient is also the highest among all the variables in the model
(B = 35,242.99). This may be due to the fact that interchange sta-
tions provide higher accessibility to other stations and, hence, are
able to attract more passengers. This finding underlies the impor-
tance of network connectivity in attracting ridership. In New York
City, another station characteristic variable – Distance to Midtown
(DIS MID) – is included in the final model (B = −715.42, p = 0.00).
This variable is negatively associated with railway patronage, it
shows that the higher the generalized travel costs from the railway
station to midtown, the lower the railway patronage. The higher
generalized travel costs here imply that a station is located farther
away from midtown. The location of the midtown (Manhattan) in
New York City is shown in Fig. 1. The longer the distance away from
midtown, the time required to travel by transit is higher, and tran-
sit is less attractive than automobiles. In the Hong Kong model, the
interchange station variable (INTER) is also included (B = 17,987.12,
p = 0.00). In other words, interchange stations are also highly con-
ducive to railway patronage. Nonetheless, the years of operation
(YRS OP) is the most statistically significant variable in the Hong
Kong model and it is having the highest t-value (t = 5.65). Generally,
stations that started operation earlier were having higher railway
patronage. This finding also confirms that the old urban area or city
centre is still very vibrant as preferable places to live, to work and
to shop in Hong Kong.
For the socio-economic and demographic characteristics
dimension, car ownership (CARS) and population density/size
(POP D/POP S) are statistically significant in both models and they
are positively associated with railway patronage. Both models show
that average household car ownership within the catchment area
is positively associated with railway patronage. The result is quite
astonishing at first sight because, at an individual level, cars and
208 B.P.Y. Loo et al. / Landscape and Urban Planning 97 (2010) 202–212
Fig. 3. The spatial pattern of population density in New York City.
railways are often competitive transport modes. Nonetheless, it
is important to realize that this paper analyzes railway patron-
age of neighborhoods around different railway stations, rather than
railway patronage of neighborhoods with and without the metro
system. The positive association should therefore be interpreted
as railway stations with higher average household car ownership
neighborhoods tended to have higher patronage levels, compared
with those stations with lower average household car ownership
neighborhoods. Moreover, the positive association is consistent
with the conventional wisdom that, firstly, households with cars
available tend to have higher trip rates, regardless of the modes
used (Transport Department, 2002) and, secondly, they are likely to
use their automobiles for different purposes, including the shorter
pick-up and drop-off trips to transit stations (Kim et al., 2007).
Population is also another statistically significant variable in both
models. In the Hong Kong model, population is measured by the
population divided by the total residential floor area. This variable
shows the density of population per square meter of residential
land use. Given the relatively lower density of development in New
York, the absolute population size provides a better model fit. In
other words, the total number of people living within the catch-
ment area is more important in accounting for railway patronage
variability in New York City. (Using the density of population for the
New York City model and/or absolute population size for the Hong
Kong model would lead to lower model fit.) This finding in New
York City is consistent with a previous qualitative research which
demonstrates that population growth is important in contributing
to high transit patronage (Yoh et al., 2003). Figs. 3 and 4 show the
population density in New York City and Hong Kong respectively.
It can be seen that the population density in Hong Kong, especially
in Kowloon, is higher than that in New York City. In the Hong Kong,
another variable that captures the employment intensity within the
station buffer is included (EMPOVERPOP) and is significant at the
0.05 level. Moreover, it is the only factor in the Hong Kong model
with a negative regression coefficient (B = −3702.71). As this vari-
able is the employment size relative to the population size around
a station, the result reveals that high employment opportunities
close to railway stations alone is not conducive to railway patron-
 B.P.Y. Loo et al. / Landscape and Urban Planning 97 (2010) 202–212
Fig. 4. The spatial pattern of population density in Hong Kong.
age. As shown earlier on, pure commercial land use was not as
important as mixed commercial/residential land use in accounting
for rail station patronage in Hong Kong.
In the Hong Kong model, the number of bus stops within the
station buffer (BUS) is another statistically significant variable
(B = 860.67, p = 0.00). This variable has the second highest absolute
t-value and the regression coefficient is positive, which means that
higher number of bus stops close to railway stations was associ-
ated with higher railway patronage. Once again, this result is a bit
surprising as bus is generally regarded as a major competitor to
rail transit. This finding can be attributed to the inter-modal co-
ordination among different public transportation modes in Hong
Kong. In fact, bus services can be complementary to railway by
providing feeder bus services that helps to bring passengers to
railway stations. The results suggest that enhanced inter-modal
co-ordination may help boost the railway patronage of the metro
system. Similar recommendations were also made by Jefferson
(1996), especially near pedestrian streets.
209
4.2. Multiple regression analysis: the combined model
Table 3 shows the result of the best-fit regression model for
the combined dataset. In this model, a total of ten independent
variables were included, the adjusted R-square is 0.64. All of the
independent variables are highly significant at the 0.05 level. Once
again, all the collinearity and multicollinearity tests were passed
and there is no discernable pattern identifiable in the residual plot.
Similar to the above analysis, the independent variables were
grouped under four different dimensions, including the land use,
station characteristics, socio-economic and demographic charac-
teristics and inter-modal competition. In the combined model, the
new variable NYC DUM is the most significant, with the highest
absolute t-value (t-value = −16.02) and having the highest regres-
sion coefficient (B = −51,439.33). The high significance level for this
variable shows that place-specific factors are important in affecting
railway patronage. In this case, there are only two metro systems
for comparison. As shown in Table 1, the average weekday rail-
210 B.P.Y. Loo et al. / Landscape and Urban Planning 97 (2010) 202–212

Table 3
Final regression model for the combined dataset.

Dimension Variable B Standard error Beta coefficient t Significance

Constant 25,698.582 3933.705 6.53 0.00

Land use COM 0.00 0.00 0.72 2.48 0.01

GAR DUM −9310.352 2867.137 −0.08 −3.25 0.00

Station characteristics DIST MID −600.75 204.43 −0.09 −2.94 0.00

INTER 13,697.36 2142.25 0.16 6.40 0.00
YRS OP 370.33 36.87 0.49 10.05 0.00
CBD DUM 12,011.68 1486.93 0.18 8.08 0.00

Socio-economic and demographic POP S 0.09 0.05 0.05 1.68 0.09

characteristics CARS 36,668.48 7317.20 0.14 5.01 0.00

Inter-modal competition BUS 410.76 67.85 0.19 6.05 0.00

NYC DUM −51,439.33 3210.11 −0.92 −16.02 0.00

Adjusted R-square 0.64

Number of unweighted observations (n) 485

way patronage for all railway stations in New York City and Hong
Kong were 12, 174.06 and 43,888.38 respectively. After taking into
the effects of the other independent variables included in the final
model, the regression coefficient of the New York City dummy
(B = −51,439.33) suggests that New York City railway stations had
systematically much less railway patronage than Hong Kong.
For the land use dimension, two variables, commercial floor area
(COM) and a dummy variable for small garage area (GAR DUM), are
included. The garage dummy variable used here adopted the same
definition previously used in the New York City model, showing
stations with garage floor area lower than the 90th percentile. Con-
sistent with the individual regression models of New York City and
Hong Kong, commercial and garage land uses continued to appear
as important factors in affecting railway patronage. These land use
variables are statistically significant at the 0.05 level, but they have
different effects on railway patronage. In particular, commercial
floor area (COM) have positive effect on railway patronage (B = 0.00,
p = 0.01). As commercial land use is associated with job opportuni-
ties, it would create demand for transportation as employees have
to commute to work. In large metropolitan cities where road con-
gestion is common during peak hours, commuting to work using
rail transit is attractive. Other land use types, such as open space
which can enhance the aesthetic value of the stations (Bernasconi
et al., 2009), were not important explanatory factors. GAR DUM is
negatively associated with railway patronage (B = −9310.35). The
result suggests that stations with small garage area are associated
with less patronage entries. In the combined model, the mixed land
use dummy variable found in the Hong Kong model is not included.
This finding can be explained by the fact that the urban form in New
York City is not as compact as Hong Kong. Hence, after including
the New York City stations, this variable became insignificant in
accounting for railway patronage. Moreover, mixed land use may
be more effective in enhancing railway patronage in a high-density
environment. Nonetheless, more research is needed in this area.
The station characteristics dimension is the most important
dimension in the combined model. Four independent variables –
distance to midtown (DIS MID), interchange station (INTER), years
of operation (YRS OP) and a dummy variable for CBD (CBD DUM)
– are included. The variable YRS OP, showing the years of opera-
tion of a railway station, has the second highest absolute t-value
(t = 10.05) and is positively associated with railway patronage
(B = 153.71, p = 0.00). This result is reasonable, as railway system
usually began in the oldest areas (often downtown areas) and grad-
ually extended outwards. Therefore, the earlier-built railway lines
usually have higher patronage than the newly-established lines.
Another statistically significant variable under the station charac-
teristics dimension is CBD DUM (B = 12,011.68, p = 0.00). A previous
study by Kuby et al. (2004) shows that the CBD was not a signif-
icant variable in accounting for light-rail boardings in the United
States. In this study, this variable refers to the Manhattan area
in New York City and the downtown area of Hong Kong. In New
York City, it is the Manhattan area. In Hong Kong, it includes the
area along the northern shore of Hong Kong island and the pop-
ulous Kowloon peninsula. The more restrictive definition of the
CBD used by the Transport Department has been tested (Transport
Department, 2006). However, the variable was not statistically sig-
nificant. Hence, the metro area used by the Planning Department
was adopted (Planning Department, 2003). The locations of the
CBDs in New York City and Hong Kong are also shown in Figs. 1 and 2
respectively. According to the combined model, stations within the
downtown areas could have roughly about 12,011 more average
weekday patronage. Then, INTER also has a high absolute t-value
(t = 6.40) and is highly significant (p = 0.00). The result follows our
expectation, as interchange station (INTER) is statistically signifi-
cant in both the New York City and Hong Kong models. Generally,
interchange stations have about 13,697 more weekday passen-
gers than non-interchange stations. Lastly, Distance to midtown
(DIS MID) is also significant in this combined model but with a
negative regression coefficient (B = −600.75, p = 0.00). While the
midtown (Manhattan) of New York City is shown in Fig. 1, the
midtown (Mongkok) of Hong Kong is shown in Fig. 2. Distances
to other alternative locations, such as the downtowns, have been
tested but they were not statistically significant. The farther away
a railway station is from the midtown, the less attractive is the rail-
way compared to automobiles. The significance of this variable in
the combined model implies that this observation in New York City
can be generalized to Hong Kong as well.
For the socio-economic and demographic characteristics dimen-
sion, two variables are included – population size and car
ownership. These two variables are also included in the individ-
ual models. Similar to the findings presented in the previous part,
these two variables are significant and conducive to railway patron-
age. The regression coefficient for population size (POP S) is 0.09
(p = 0.01), meaning that for each additional 1000 people living
within the 500 m station buffer area, the average weekday rail-
way patronage increased by 90. For car ownership, the regression
coefficient is 36,668.48 (p = 0.00). Once again, it is important to real-
ize that this paper analyzes railway patronage of neighborhoods
around different railway stations, rather than railway patronage
of neighborhoods with and without the metro system. The posi-
tive association suggests that railway stations with higher average
household car ownership neighborhoods tended to have higher
patronage level, compared with those stations with lower average
household car ownership neighborhoods.
 B.P.Y. Loo et al. / Landscape and Urban Planning 97 (2010) 202–212
Lastly, the inter-modal competition factor is important. The
number of bus stops within the station buffer is statistically signifi-
cant in the combined model. Moreover, this variable affects railway
patronage in a positive manner. This variable is not included in the
best-fit New York City model, but the result here shows that the
same effect also applied to the New York City. In general, bus stops
around railway stations can help to attract more railway patronage
(B = 410.76, p = 0.00).
5. Conclusions
The combined model reinforces some salient points obtained
from the individual multiple regression models of New York City
and Hong Kong. Firstly, station characteristics appeared to be rela-
tively more important than other dimensions in affecting average
weekday railway patronage in all three models. In other words,
the results of this analysis confirm the value of TODs in generating
railway patronage under different socio-economic contexts. Future
research on TOD may pay more attention on examining how var-
ious aspects of station characteristics can be modified to increase
railway patronage. Besides, car ownership is also both significant
and positively associated with railway patronage in all models.
The result suggests that higher car ownership may be associated
with more pick-ups, drop-offs and park-and-ride activities to the
transit stations for the longer transit trip legs. Unlike buses, metro
systems at these large metropolitan cities are often offering good
or even better services than automobiles in terms of cost (includ-
ing parking charges), safety, speed and reliability especially within
the congested CBD areas and during peak hours. Furthermore, this
study shows that place-specific factors are important in influenc-
ing railway patronage. In the future, more fruitful cross-country
comparisons can be made to better understand factors affecting
metro ridership. The major difficulty lies with data availability. In
particular, detailed land use data around the catchment area of
each railway station have to be collected and analyzed. Further-
more, detailed station-level railway patronage data like those used
in the current study are commercially sensitive and difficult to
get. Nonetheless, further research on comparing metro systems in
different parts of the world can help to provide a more in-depth
understanding on the ways of achieving sustainable urban trans-
portation. In particular, TOD research along the four dimensions of
land use, station characteristics, socio-economic and demographic
characteristics, and inter-modal competition should be encouraged
to identify policy measures for promoting transit ridership and
reducing automobile dependency in large metropolitan cities.
Acknowledgements
This project is supported by the Research Grant Council of Hong
Kong Special Administrative Region, China (Project code: HKU
748408H). The first author would also like to express her sincere
gratitude to MTRCL for providing the average weekday rail patron-
age data of 2005 at the station level for this comparative analysis.
We like to thank Mr. James Barry (formerly New York City Tran-
sit, Mr. Lawrence Hirsch, and Mr. Qifeng Zeng of New York City for
providing us the dataset used for this study.
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Becky P.Y. Loo is a professor of the Department of Geography and associate dean of
the Faculty of Social Sciences at the University of Hong Kong. Her research interests
are transportation, spatial analysis and economic geography.
Cynthia Chen is an associate professor of the Department of Civil and Environmental
Engineering, The University of Washington. Her research expertise and interests
include travel behavior analysis, network analysis and intelligent transportation
system.
Eric Chan is an assistant traffic engineer at CKM Asia Limited. His Master of Philos-
ophy thesis was on transit-oriented development.