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A s a K ey to D riv in g S a le s G ro w th
CHARLES YOUNG The current research used McDonald’s data to explore the relationship between
Ameritest
advertising quality and sales growth. Based on a 6.5-year dataset involving more than
chuck@ameritest.net
180,000 consumer interviews, the researchers found that nearly half of McDonald’s sales
ADAM PAGE
growth could be explained by variables related to advertising quality. Specifically, the study
Ameritest
adam@ameritest.net found that factors such as sales momentum, the introduction of calorie content on to
quick-service restaurant (QSR, i.e., fast-food) menus, and variables related to key research
metrics—and, importantly, the right messaging strategy—can be effective in linking
advertising to variation in sales.
• Quality of advertising creative is a major factor driving sales response. Marketing-mix models
attempting to quantify ROI are incomplete if they do not include a creative-quality variable.
• Relative performance of advertising versus the competitive may provide insight into one of the
fundamental questions facing brand marketers.
• A definition of creative “quality” needs to take into account the relationship between brand
positioning and brand image.
• The current study examined how emotional engagement with advertisements can be converted to
long-term brand memories.
The variables are defined as follows (Y— advertisem ent and included only "effec FINDINGS
Monthly change in same-store sales): tive" advertisem ents that scored at (or The Importance of Strategic
above) average (index greater than 100) on Communication
• XI: A "mom entum " variable—the aver at least one strategic message. In one seminal analysis, com munication
age of the prior three m onths' sales The API scores for these qualifying was found to occur only w hen a particu
growth—that accounted for longer-term advertisements were multiplied by the top lar message is selected from a set of pos
effects of advertising message rating scored by that advertise sible messages th at m ust be know n to
• X2: An advertising-quality metric com ment. From those data, the authors were both sender and receiver (Shannon and
prised of executional performance met able to calculate an average creative index Weaver, 1949). For the QSR industry, these
rics and communication metrics score for the num ber of effective advertise messages include such ideas as taste, vari
• X3: A "calorie" variable—in this case, a ments running that month. ety, health, and a family-friendly atmos
dum m y variable set to 0 and to 1—that The negative-advertising quality vari phere, and each message can vary in its
allowed the research team to account able (X4) was calculated in a way that was creative expression and degree, (e.g.,
for the period beginning in late 2012, analogous to X2, except that only adver Dahlen et al., 2008).
when McDonald's began offering calo tisem ents that communicated "conveni By contrast, Subway's strategy is quite
rie counts for its products on its menus ence" as the top-rated message were used different: Its m essaging has focused
• X4: A negative-advertising quality vari in the average for each month; advertise entirely on health claims, as the QSR has
able that identified any advertisements ments with low and high API scores were attempted to position its brand against the
that had failed to communicate a rel included. entire fast-food category, which often is
evant strategic message to consumers perceived as unhealthy.
other than the default consumer infer The Research Model The presence of a strategic m es
ence of "convenience." The m om entum variable (XI) is the most sage by itself is not enough to explain
im portant of the four variables examined ad v ertisin g 's im pact on M cD onald's
Further Explanation of the Variables in the study and accounts for about a third sales growth. In combination, however,
The m om en tu m v ariab le (XI) w as of sales grow th, w ith an R-squared of w ith industry m easures of executional
designed to reflect the idea that m onth- 34 percent. strength—"attention," "branding," and
to-month changes in sales were not inde The advertising quality variable (X2) "m otivation"—it is possible to assess
pendent of one another but rather built on is the next m ost im p o rtan t, w ith an how the quality of the creative product in
one another over a period of time. R -squared of 9 percent. Of course, this advertising may drive sales.
The advertising quality variable (X2) p a rt of the analysis accounts only for
was a composite index: advertising's contribution to short-term The Impact of a Failed-Message Strategy
sales and is not tied to long-term b rand One way that advertising can fail to be
Ad Quality = Execution x Strategy =
b u ild in g effects th at m ay resu lt from effective is by not communicating a mes
Creative Idea x Relevant Message =
advertising used to establish a brand sage that supports the strategic positioning
(Ameritest Performance Index)
p o sitio n in g and im age. These types of the brand. As the authors of this study
x Messaging
of effects w o u ld be contained in the observed in certain McDonald's messaging
The Ameritest Performance Index (API) m om entum variable. strategies, this kind of failure may do dam
consisted of "Attention," "Branding," and The advertising quality variable (X4) age that extends beyond the lost invest
"M otivation" (intent to visit restaurant), that accounts for ineffective advertise ment of misplaced media dollars. Creative
which are standard pretest "report-card" m ents that fail to contribute a strategic work that strays too far from w hat the
measures. message also enters the model in a nega brand stands for in the mind of the con
The messaging metric (X3) is the top- tive w ay—w ith a negative beta coeffi sumer can blur the brand positioning and
rated message from the group of ten cient—to increase the predictive power of damage the brand image.
fast-food messages collected in the brand the model by another 2 percent. An example: A M cDonald's advertise
ratings. To calculate the composite creative Finally, the dum m y variable marking m ent that rem inds consumers of only the
index score for each month, the research McDonald's decision to communicate calo convenience of eating at M cD onald's.
ers exam ined the m essaging of each rie content (X3) adds 3 percent to the model. In practice, the QSR never w ould run
that emotional bond suggests the mecha im portant—one of the "fundam en engagement strategies connect with
nism for advertising's long-term contri tal questions facing brand marketers" advertisements to create long-term brand
bution to the momentum variable in the (Reynolds and Phillips, 2005). The memories. flJT)
current model. authors believe, therefore, that competi
tive testing and awareness is a necessary C harles Y oung is founder and ceo of Ameritest, a global
IMPLICATIONS AND CONCLUSION component in the analysis of fluctua research firm , based in Albuquerque. NM. Young
Marketing managers seek to understand tions in sales figures. Such analysis can invented the firm ’s Ameritest’s Picture Sorts technique
the relationship between advertising qual lead to the identification of areas where th a t analyzes visual components of advertising.
ity and sales growth. This McDonald's the brand needs to position to fend off Previously, he was research partner for Euro/Tatham
analysis—with a 48 percent R2 on sales competitive attacks. and a new-product consultant for Leo Burnett. In 2004,
growth by using advertising quality met Young won the Advertising Research Foundation's Grand
rics—demonstrates that this link is not • Creative "quality" is a composite of mes Ogilvy Award for a case study conducted with IBM. He
only possible but highly important to a full sage communication and executional is the author o f The Advertising Research Handbook
marketing-mix model. variables. This distinction parallels (Ideas in Flight Publishing, Seattle, WA, 2008).
The authors of the current study two common ways of thinking about
believe the link between the quality of a brand: "positioning" versus "brand
A dam P age is an associate research and analytics director
creative work in advertising and short image." A brand manager's structural
at Ameritest, in which capacity he has developed
term sales growth is clear. This high composition of an advertisement and
statistical models for a number of Ameritest clients.
lights the ever-evolving need to generate messaging strategy, therefore, needs
strong insights about creative quality, these two elements to be linked at opti
so a marketer can both understand the mum levels to ensure that both position
"whys" of his or her advertising and take ing and brand image can be understood REFERENCES
this into account when making a sales completely by the consumer. Also, one
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