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kcirc (= ktr)
Edrug MTT
dProl/dt = kprol · Prol · (1 – Slope · Ccarbo) · (Circ0/Circ)γ – ktr · Prol
dTransit 1/dt = ktr · Prol – ktr · Transit 1
dTransit 2/dt = ktr · Transit 1 – ktr · Transit 2
dTransit 3/dt = ktr · Transit 2 – ktr · Transit 3
dCirc/dt = ktr · Transit 3 – kcirc · Circ
B C
Conditional Weighted Residual
3 -4
2
-5 6
0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 63 70 77 84 91 98 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 63 70 77 84 91 98
5
(× 109/L)
Time (days) Time (days)
100
0.5
10 0.05
10 100 1,000 0.05 0.5 5 50
Fig 1. Goodness-of-fit plots for the basic model (without any covariates) obtained with the training data set (n ⫽ 276 and ⫽ 249 for platelet count and absolute neutrophil
count [ANC] respectively). (A) Pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model describing myelosuppression after carboplatin administration (modified from Friberg et al6). (B)
Individual predicted versus observed platelet count; insert: conditional weighted residuals of the platelet model versus time. (C) Individual predicted versus observed ANC;
insert: conditional weighted residuals of the neutrophil model versus time. MTT, mean transit time. Prol, progenitor cells; Circ, circulating cells; Circ0, basal cell count.
The observed neutrophil and platelet data were log-transformed before the study design were simulated using the final models. Simulated platelet
the analysis, and an additive error model was used to obtain the residual counts and ANCs (summarized by their median and 90% prediction interval
variability. The first order conditional estimates method in NONMEM was at each time) were then compared with the actual observed values in the
applied for the estimation of the model parameters. patients comprising the validation data set. In cases of agreement between the
model and the observations, both training and validation data sets were
Covariate Analysis
pooled, and the model was refined by re-estimating all the model parameters.
The relationships between the three PK-PD parameters (ie, base, MTT,
VPCs were again done for this final model using the global data set (n ⫽ 383 for
and slope) and 18 patient covariates were explored by using the training data
platelet counts, and n ⫽ 338 patients for ANCs), as well as for each patient
set. The covariates studied were age, body-surface area (BSA), body weight
subgroup defined by significant covariates.
(BW), height, sex, performance status, albuminemia (ALB), proteinemia,
For additional evaluation of the effects of covariates, the final PK-PD
uremia, bilirubinemia, lymphocyte count at day 5, multiple-dose (⬎ 4 days)
covariate models obtained from the training data set were applied to the
corticosteroid administration (CORT), monochemotherapy versus combina-
validation data set and all the covariate effects were re-estimated.
tion with other cytotoxics (paclitaxel, etoposide, gemcitabine, or others), pre-
vious chemotherapy or not, and four single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) Prediction of Carboplatin Hematotoxicity
corresponding to either glutathione-S-transferase P1 (A313G, and C340T) or Individual platelet counts and ANC time courses were simulated in
excision repair cross-complementing 1 (C353T, and G8092T). First, predic- NONMEM using the final PK-PD covariate model estimated from the whole
tions of the individual PK-PD parameters obtained from the basic model were data set and 5,000 virtual patients for different levels of plasma carboplatin
plotted against each covariate. The covariates for which this preliminary AUC (ranging from 4 to 8 mg/mL 䡠 min by steps of 0.5 mg/mL).
screening revealed a significant relationship were further tested in NONMEM.
The covariate selection and the obtainment of the final model from the inter-
mediate model are described in detail in the online-only Appendix. RESULTS
Evaluation of the Final Population PK-PD Models
Standard goodness-of-fit plots using conditional weighted residuals9 Patient Population and Treatment
were done at each step of the model building. Moreover, visual predictive From the 400 included patients, 29 did not have a PK exploration
checks (VPCs) were carried out using the validation data set: 1,000 replicates of and were allocated to the validation data set. Thirteen patients did not
Abbreviations: ANC, absolute neutrophil count; ALB, albuminemia; CORT, multiple-dose corticosteroid administration; PTT, previous pretreatment (⫽ 1) versus any
(⫽ 0); IIV, interindividual variability; MTT, mean transit time; MONO, carboplatin in monochemotherapy (⫽ 1) versus in combination (⫽ 0); PACLI, carboplatin in
combination with paclitaxel (⫽ 1) versus other combination or monochemotherapy (⫽ 0); VP16, carboplatin in combination with etoposide; GEM, carboplatin in
combination with gemcitabine; IOV, inter-occasion (inter-cycle) variability; ⌬OBJ, difference in objective function between the final model and the model without the
covariate (if ⌬OBJ ⬎ ⫹6.63, the covariate is significant with a P value of .01).
observations for both platelet counts and ANCs. An advanced internal substantial risk of both neutropenia and thrombocytopenia (particu-
validation was done by data splitting, and VPCs were performed to larly for the carboplatin-etoposide regimen). Pretreatment was iden-
globally evaluate the models and ensure that the variability in the data tified as a significant covariate of a lower basal platelet count and
was correctly described, together with the effects of the covariates. The should be considered when the choice of the target carboplatin AUC is
results of this model evaluation were completely satisfactory. The large exclusively or partly dependent on the risk of thrombocytopenia
number of patients may explain the good precision of the estimation (monochemotherapy and combination other than paclitaxel). A car-
obtained for the model parameters, including the parameters related boplatin AUC of 5 or 7 mg/mL 䡠 min was associated with a risk of grade
to covariate effects. 4 neutropenia of 21% or 42%, respectively, for any combination
Importantly, none of the analyzed demographic, biologic, or without multiple-dose corticosteroid administration, versus 14% or
pharmacogenetic covariates had a significant impact on hematopoi- 32% for any combination with multiple-dose corticosteroid adminis-
etic toxicity sensitivity (slope). The results obtained in patients treated tration. In the case of monochemotherapy, an AUC of 5 or 7 mg/mL 䡠
with standard carboplatin regimens showed that the main covariate min was associated with a 7% and 16% rate of grade 3 to 4 thrombo-
forcarboplatinmyelosuppressionisthenatureoftheassociatedchemo- cytopenia, respectively, for patients who were not pretreated; these
therapy (Fig 4). The results show that thrombocytopenia represents figures are 9% or 22%, respectively, in pretreated patients. In combi-
the dose-limiting toxicity for patients receiving carboplatin with gem- nation with gemcitabine, an AUC of 5 was associated with 31% and
citabine or as monochemotherapy and that neutropenia is the dose- 38% grade 3 to 4 thrombocytopenia for patients who were not pre-
limiting toxicity in patients receiving the carboplatin-paclitaxel treated and pretreated patients, respectively. In addition, simulation
combination. Patients cotreated with other cytotoxic agents face a analysis showed that the carboplatin-gemcitabine regimen (with a
A A
1,000
Gemcitabine
VP16
800 60 Monochemotherapy or other combinations
Paclitaxel
Grade 3 or 4 (%)
50
600
40
400 30
20
200
10
0
0 10 20 30 40 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5
Grade 4 (%)
(× 1,000/mm3)
40
15
30
10 20
10
5
0
3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5
quantified: the slope value was 24% lower when carboplatin was
combined with paclitaxel. Although not significant, there was also a
carboplatin AUC of 5 mg/mL 䡠 min) was associated with a 44% lower trend for lower slope values in the ANC analysis when carboplatin was
basal level of platelet counts at day 21 (scheduled day for cycle 2) combined with paclitaxel in comparison with other combinations
compared with day 0 (just before cycle 1). By comparison, the basal
such as carboplatin and gemcitabine (Fig 2). These results suggest that
platelet level at cycle 2 was only 27% lower for monochemotherapy
a higher target AUC (eg, 6 mg/mL 䡠 ml rather than 5 mg/mL 䡠 min)
and combinations other than gemcitabine, etoposide, or paclitaxel
may be chosen for the carboplatin-paclitaxel regimen. A limitation of
compared with cycle 1. These last results illustrate the cumulative
this analysis was the absence of paclitaxel PK data. Another multi-
thrombocytopenia resulting from the use of carboplatin-gemcitabine
institutional study published by Joerger et al15 showed that the time
regimen, which imposes a delay and/or a decrease in the target carbo-
platin AUC for the following cycles. By choosing an AUC of 5 mg/L 䡠 above threshold paclitaxel concentration of 0.05 mol/L was a good
min, 35% of the patients cannot be treated at day 21 compared with predictor for severe neutropenia. However, implementation of this
only 15% at day 28, suggesting that a 4-week regimen should be result for individual dosing in clinical practice would require thera-
recommended at this level of AUC. peutic drug monitoring, which could only be possible after comple-
Multiple-dose corticosteroid administration was associated with tion of cycle 1. The advantage of PK-PD modeling related to
a higher basal level of ANC; this may reflect a consequence of the carboplatin is that it can be applied in routine clinical practice because
demargination of intravascular neutrophils. However, the inverse re- carboplatin clearance may be accurately predicted without any bias,
lationship observed between albuminemia and the basal ANC level is particularly by considering cystatin C plasma levels together with
more difficult to explain. usual patient characteristics (serum creatinine, body weight, age,
Interestingly, the current data confirmed several clinical and pre- and sex).7
clinical observations showing a platelet-sparing effect of paclitaxel that Finally, several polymorphisms corresponding to genes coding
resulted in a lower risk of thrombocytopenia after carboplatin admini- for proteins involved in cellular detoxification of platinum or plati-
stration.13,14 The present PK-PD analysis enables this effect to be num adducts DNA repair have been investigated. The slope values did
6. Friberg LE, Henningsson A, Maas H, et al: 13. Guminski AD, Harnett PR, deFazio A: Carbo-
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Acknowledgment
We thank Daniela Oswald and John Woodley for editorial assistance with English language usage.
Appendix
A
1,000
600
400
200
0 10 20 30 40
Time (days)
B
25
Absolute Neutrophil Count
20
(× 1,000/mm3)
15
10
0 10 20 30 40
Time (days)
Fig A1. Visual predictive check for the final models obtained with the training data set using 1,000 simulations of the study design. The solid line represents the median
of the simulations, the dashed lines the fifth and 95th percent prediction intervals, and the dots represent the observed counts. (A) Platelet count; (B) absolute neutrophil
count (two overlaid points at day 21 [35 ⫻ 1,000/L] and day 22 [44 ⫻ 1,000/L]).