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Group B03
Trade openness
Trade openness is a measure of economic policies that either restrict or invite trade between
countries.
For example, if a country sets a policy of high trade tariffs, thus restricting the desirability of
international trade, this restrictive policy will inhibit other countries from sending exports and
accepting imports from that country. According to dominating economic theory, this restrictiveness,
this lack of trade openness, will have an economic effect of slowing economic development/growth.
Conversely, according to economic theory, trade openness will have an economic effect of
increasing economic development and growth.
FDI
A foreign direct investment (FDI) is an investment made by a firm or individual in one country into
business interests located in another country. Generally, FDI takes place when an investor
establishes foreign business operations or acquires foreign business assets in a foreign company.
However, FDIs are distinguished from portfolio investments in which an investor merely
purchases equities of foreign-based companies.
Recession
A recession is a macroeconomic term that refers to a significant decline in general economic activity
in a designated region. It is typically recognized after two consecutive quarters of economic decline,
as reflected by GDP in conjunction with monthly indicators like employment. Recessions are officially
declared in the U.S. by a committee of experts at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER),
who determines the peak and subsequent trough of the business cycle which demonstrates the
recession.
Problem Statement
Here we are trying investigate the relationship between FDI and trade openness and also to what
significance.
Objective
Our objective is to determine if a change in trade openness of the economy leads to a significant
change in FDI inflows in the economy.
Literature review
The impact of trade openness on FDI is controversial. Nations endeavour to attract more FDI
for a number of reasons relating to beliefs that FDI has a variety of positive e ffects such as
technology transfer, employee training, backward and forward linkages, labour mobility,
increased productivity, technical assistance and provision of access of local firms to
international markets. Many empirical studies advocate the arguments that FDI has a positive
impact on trade openness in recipient countries. In their study, Lane and Melesi-Ferretti (2001)
got the result that in growing countries, openness has a positive impact. Liargovas and Skandalis
tested 36 growing countries’ relationship between FDIs and openness between the years 1990-2008
using panel regression analysis and founded a positive and important relationship between
openness and the FDIs coming to the country. Hence, the transfer and adoption of relevant
technologies enhances productivity and helps countries to create labour-intensive
activities. The transfer of advanced technologies increases the demand of productive labour
and supports countries by enhancing labour generation activities besides training managers
and workers to increase their productivity in order to get long run benefits from their
services. This would gene rate new jobs which might be seen as a short-run impact. It is
suggested that an increase in the demand plays a pivotal role in trade and the country’s
policy to support innovation, education and provision of infrastructural facilities.
It seems a paired effect in terms of FDI trade showing a robust relationship between FDI and
trade. Past experience provides an ample explanation that FDI promotes exports and helps local
firms to get access to global markets as well as operate efficiently by adopting new technologies
and try to be competitive, which highlights the value of economic freedom to attract FDI. Apergis
(2008) and confirms that the cause and effect mechanism for exports. The major determinants of
foreign direct investment are trade openness, market size, labour force growth and infrastructure
growth. FDI also relies upon the rate of return that an investor receives from the host country.
Ashgar (2016) examined the relationship between FDI inflows and trade openness in South -
Asian economies. He examined the relationship of seven countries for the 1998 -2010 period
based on panel data using random effects estimation. Trade openness was measured by
three indicators, in terms of (Abdel Mahmoud Ibrahim Tahmad, n.d.) (Selahattin GÜRİŞ)
imports, exports and a joint combination of both factors. His results suggested that there is a
significant relationship between trade openness and foreign direct investment inflows. Trade
openness has a positive and significant impact on FDI inflows in South-Asian countries.
Methodology
The project has been conducted on the data set collected for the year 2002 to 2016. The data for
2017 and 2018 will be calculated using the regression equation which will be obtained after the
regression analysis has been performed.
Regression analysis
Regression analysis has been run on the data set on trade openness and FDI to set up the regression
model (after taking the natural logarithm)
Y= α + βX
For running the regression, the dependent variable Y= FDI and the independent variable X=Trade
openness.
After running the regression analysis in MS Excel below is the overall summary snapshot.
Where,
α= 15.32290914
β= 3.26144355619897
Hence it can be inferred that with 1% change of the Trade Openness the FDI will change by 3.26%
Using the above equation, the value of the FDI is calculated that gives us the predicted value of FDI
and then the difference of the observed value and predicted value is taken to get the residuals or
the error terms.
The below table provides the snapshot of the residuals for the given set of data.
A scatter plot of the observed and the predicted value of the regression has been captured in the
below snapshot.
23.5
23 FDI (ln)
22.5 Predicted FDI (ln)
22
21.5
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
Trade openess(ln)
We can conclude that 4.483923812 increase in Trade openness would result in 2938981464 increase
in FDI
2) Assuming that in 2018, Trade openness increases by 12%
Trade openness in 2018 = 3.179573215
FDI = 3.261443556(3.179573215) + 15.32290914
= 25.69290771
Taking antilog,
FDI = 143975316700
Therefore, FDI in 2018 is forecasted to 143975316700
We can conclude that 6.939464798 increase in Trade openness would result in 96577763690
increase in FDI
3) Assuming that in 2019, Trade openness increases by 12%
Trade openness in 2019 = 3.561122001
FDI = 3.261443556(3.561122001) + 15.32290914
= 26.93730754
Taking antilog,
FDI = 499716882500
Therefore, FDI in 2018 is forecasted to 499716882500
We can conclude that 11.16617948 unit increase in Trade openness would result in 3.55742E+11
unit increase in FDI.
Hypothesis Testing
A T-test will be performed to check if the null hypothesis can be rejected or not using the below
decision-making rules.
Decision making
We will reject the null hypothesis if the value tcal > ttab at n-k degrees of freedom, else we accept the
null hypothesis.
Where n= No of observations
Since tcal > ttab at 13 degree of freedom and at 5% level of significance. Hence, we can reject the null
hypothesis.
To make the calculation easier the natural logarithm of the financial development is taken and
regression is run on MS Excel where,
Y= α + β1X1 + β2X2
Where,
α= the y-intercept
After running the multiple regression analysis below is the snapshot of the same.
Y= α + β1X1 + β2X2
α= 16.7342142743338
β1= 3.24045923946456
β2= 1.56808014496096
Now using the above equation, the predicted value of Y is calculated and residual error terms are
calculated. Below is the snapshot of the same.
Hypothesis Testing
H0: β0 = β1 = 0 or There is no significant relation between FDI, trade openness and financial
development.
H1: one or more β’s ≠ 0 or There is a relation between FDI, trade openness and financial
development
df = n-k
= 15-3 = 12
tcalc = 5.35140586204542
ttab = 2.179
tcalc > ttab at 5% level of significance at 12 degrees of freedom, we reject null hypothesis H0
tcalc = 0.627138716159004
ttab = 2.179
tcalc < ttab at 5% level of significance at 12 degrees of freedom, we accept null hypothesis H0
Implies there is no significant relation between FDI and financial development.
To study the impact of economic recession in the years 2008 and 2009, we have used dummy
variables where a year with recession is represented as 1 and year without a recession is
represented as 0.
The regression analysis is performed on above data and the below result is obtained
Multiple R = 0.850955 implies highly positive correlation between Trade openness, FDI and recession
AdjR2 (Coefficient of determination): 0.678 (We can say change in FDI has 67.8% variant for the
change in trade openness and recession)
H1: one or more β’s ≠ 0 or There is a relation between FDI, trade openness and D
df = n-k
= 15-3 = 12
tcalc = 5.195213
ttab = 2.179
tcalc = 0.996257
ttab = 2.179
Level of significance 5%
The null hypothesis is valid when we consider the relationship between FDI and recession,
hence the FDI is not significantly affected by recession under given consideration.
Simple regression
F=α + β*T 13 0.710786 5.1952 2.179 Reject H0
Multiple
regression F=α + β1*T + β2*T 12 0.662583898 5.3514 2.179 Reject H0
Dummy Variable
F=α + β1*T + β2*T 12 0.724125 0.9962 2.179 Accept H0
References
-https://www.enotes.com/homework-help/what-trade-openness-87695
-http://www.usc.es/economet/journals1/aeid/aeid1524.pdf
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/330376635_The_impact_of_trade_openness_on_foreign
_direct_investment_in_Sudan_by_sector_in_the_1990-2017_period_An_empirical_analysis
- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/recession.asp
- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fdi.asp
- https://eds.a.ebscohost.com/eds/pdfviewer/pdfviewer?vid=3&sid=8d87e9fe-be6e-44ee-9570-
2e8da132712c%40sessionmgr4007
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PhL1rZp66AA
- https://eds.a.ebscohost.com/eds/pdfviewer/pdfviewer?vid=6&sid=8d87e9fe-be6e-44ee-9570-
2e8da132712c%40sessionmgr4007