Strategy for Gas Power Stations in view of Large scale Renewable Energy Power

Preface
The key challenges plaguing the Combined cycle power plants presently in India is to remain competitive with the modern machines at this
pivotal time in the Indian Power Sector, where the average CC Plant Load Factor (PLF) is in the tune of 23 to 25% which is expected to
settle at this level going forward. Coupled with increasing demand, the influx of the Renewables will also be one of the key reasons for lower
PLFs staring at Combined Cycle power plants.

India is poised to achieve a growth rate which is projected to trigger a major rise in energy demand due to demographic expansion, increasing
urbanisation and rising demands for mobility. It is now widely accepted that renewable energy has the potential for emerging as the solution
to rising energy demands of our country keeping in view the commitments made with respect to environmental norms.

We know that India has a great potential to harness Renewables & in line with this GOI has set up a goal of 175 GW of renewable energy
by 2022. With solar/ renewables gaining scale and backed by preferential dispatch(Must Run), these sources bring in an element of variability
into the grid due to their nature of generation. This puts additional requirement on coal plants & CCPPs to remain as standby capacity to
pitch in as soon as the Renewable generation drops. This would mean faster ramp up needs and higher turndown. Efficient, Reliable and
Cost Effective Cycling, Low Load Operation (LLO), load ramp and start/shut capabilities with compliance to emissions would be imperative.

The track studies the challenges and solutions that are going to be faced by CCPPs in near future in order to maintain a stable grid.
 Overview

India has the fourth largest installed capacity of power generation in the world clocking currently 365 GWs. Coal being the major source of
power generation with 56% of the total installed capacity followed by hydro 12%, renewable energy sources (RES - solar, wind, small
hydro plants, and biomass) 22%, and the rest by Gas(6.8 %), Nuclear and diesel.

The installed coal fired base of 204 GW is distributed among Central, State, and Private sector entities with a share of 25%, 28% & 46%
respectively. Out of the current coal plant base, almost ~10% is based on Supercritical technology and with current discussions/ initiatives
underway to graduate to the next level Ultra supercritical (USC) and Advanced Ultra supercritical technology (A-USC).

The actual production of electricity from the coal base contributes 55.1% of the total generation.
Integration of Renewable generation into the Indian electricity grid is a challenge as well as an opportunity.In anticipation of the changing
role of thermal power in the Indian power sector and its crucial role in making best use of renewable sources, this report has been brought
out. Here in, an attempt has been made to capture the gravity of the situation by analyzing the generation trends expected in 2021-22
based on historic data, provide preliminary estimates of the costs involved and the measures required for flexibilisation as discovered in
low load pilot tests and studies of thermal units. It is found that, in the Indian context, while Coal is expected to provide majority of the
flexibility, Hydro and Gas are also expected to play a pivotal role. Along with flexible operation of Coal, Hydro & Gas plant, Demand Side
Measures would ease the constraints posed by large-scale integration of renewable generation.
Maximum renewable generation entering the grid is found to be around 108 GW, which occurs in the month of July, 2021. This is on
expected lines due to availability of high wind and solar generation during the monsoon season in India. Considering daily total demand as
per 19th EPS and RE generation as projected, the maximum & minimum generations required in a day from thermal plants are calculated.
Factors deciding the minimum thermal load (MTL) of coal-fired plant are off-peak & peak grid demand, solar & wind generation as well as
generation from other type of sources at the time of off-peak and peak grid demand. An analysis of lowest Minimum Thermal Loading
(MTL) day, an average day during monsoons, an
average day during non-monsoon and the best-case scenario is presented. Next, three steps of coordination among fuel sources are
envisaged under part II of the report, to tackle the issues & challenges of RE integration into the Indian grid. Step-I invites flexible power
from Hydro & Gas with both sources generating less during day and more during the peak hours compared to the present trend of
generation.

Introduction
Today, India’s 365 GW of installed electricity generating capacity is significantly higher than 183 GW of peak demand. In fact, India’s coal
generation capacity alone is higher than its peak demand.
Despite installed capacity exceeding power demand, some parts of the country face acute power shortages. The critical reasons are – coal
supply shortages, high level of transmission and distribution losses, and poor financial health of utilities.
These fundamental problems in the power sector are hampering the efficient use of the existing system to even meet the grid-connected
demand. On top of this, more than 400 million people in India are still waiting for access to electricity1. Extensive load-shedding and low-
quality electricity supply forces people to resort to private, local, costly and dirty solutions such as diesel generators, which pose both health
and environmental concerns. On top of this, estimates suggest that by 2021-22, India’s electricity demand will be more than double the level
in 2011-12 & would touch a figure of 225 GW(Peak).
So far, with her ever-growing electricity demand, India has been targeting to add large-scale conventional power capacities, with limited
success on meeting these targets. The focus has always been on conventional power generation, as alternatives were very costly. Now,
however, with solar and wind power becoming commercially viable in comparison to marginal mainstream sources (particularly imported
coal, and nuclear based generation), there are additional choices available to policymakers concerned with the technical, economic, and
environmental characteristics of a future power system that can keep pace with the economic growth.
In view of the above, India’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) aims to base 40% of the total installed power generation
capacity on non-fossil fuel resources by 2030 with international support on technology transfer and financing. This includes Government of
India’s ambitious target of achieving 175GW of RE by the year 2022 that marks 75 years of our independence. It also aims to reduce the
emissions intensity of GDP by 33 to 35% from 2005 levels by 2030. The installed capacity of RE is 83 GW (as on 31st Oct. 2019) and the
following discussion is on the modus operandi for CCPP in view of this large scale RES coming into the grid in near future.
In order to realize the stated benefits, the RE strategy for India will need to be integrated with and complementary to the existing and planned
power sector (particularly generation) projects. Consequently, it will require new thinking, a probable reengineering of institutions, the
redefinition of policies, the re-tuning of power systems, and the replacement of old habits with new ones. Current infrastructure and policies
are set up to fit the requirements of fossil fuel based resources, not RE, and a system that utilizes increasing amounts of RE can only be
achieved by significant efforts and retooling of the power system. A new way of thinking is unavoidable: RE is different from the power
generation technologies of the past (e.g. thermal, Gas, hydro, nuclear, etc.).
Table:1 shows the installed capacity in 2018-19,2019-20(as on 31.10.2019) & envisaged installed capacity in 2021-22.As per the current rate & GOI target of 175 GW
by 2022,The total installed capacity of India is slated to reach 479 GW in 2021-22.

Table: 1

YEAR 2018-19 2019-20 2021-22

SOLAR GENERATION 25 31 100
SOLAR & RENEWABLES 73 83 175
DEMAND 176 182 226
INSTALLED CAPACITY IN GW 349 365 479
Table:4 shows the expected demand by 2022,this is as per 19th EP survey by GOI.Peak demand by 2021-22 is expected to reach 226 GW ,which was 162 GW in 2016-
17.Peak demand as on 31.10.2019 is 183 GW.

In the year 2021-22 as per GOI ambitious target of RES,which is 175 GW, The break up of the same is mentioned in table-3 below:

Solar energy is going to contribute majorly and is expected to touch 100 GW by 2021-22 whereas wind generation shall be 60 GW.

Table:3

RES Break Up 175

Solar 100
Wind 60
Biomass 10
Small Hydro(< 25 MW) 5

Considering the datas given in Table-1,2 & 3, kindly refer Graph-1 which shows the figures in graphical format.
 SOLAR GENERATION SOLAR & RENEWABLES DEMAND INSTALLED CAPACITY IN GW

600

500
479

400
365
349

300

226
200
176 182 175

100 100
83
73

25 31
0
2018-19 2019-20 2021-22
Now we have to consider 2 cases:

1. Case-1: Considering anyday in 2021-22.Time 12 noon.

2. Case-2: Considering anyday in 2021-22.Time 12 midnight.

Case:2:

Peak demand is 226 GW. Considering full capacity utilization of solar out of installed capacity of 175 GW, Let us assume must run status and peak power delivered
be 70 GW(Considering the losses etc.)

Balance power requirement of 226-70=156 GW to be handled by Thermal & Gas(CCPP) Collectively.

Now if we consider installed capacity of thermal power plants in 2021-22: It is going to be 217 GW, Whereas Hydro(Must run) & Nuclear(must run) are 51 GW & 10
GW respectively.

Further,is we deduct hydro & Nuclear then we are left with 156-61=95 GW of peak demand to be supplied.

Considering a technical minimum of 55% for thermal plants,and keeping in view the installed capacity of thermal plants:

217(0.55)=119 GW of peak power can easily be supplied by thermal plants considering 100% availability. In this case requirement of running CCPP is not there unless
there is major outage in many thermal plants at one point of time.The cahnces of which are next to impossible.
Case:1:

Peak demand is 226 GW. Considering full capacity utilization of solar out of installed capacity of 175 GW,Let us assume must run status and peak power delivered be
140 GW(Considering the losses etc.)

Balance power requirement of 226-140=86 GW to be handled by Thermal & Gas(CCPP) Collectively.

Now if we consider installed capacity of thermal power plants in 2021-22: It is going to be 217 GW, Whereas Hydro(Must run) & Nuclear(must run) are 51 GW & 10
GW respectively.

Now if we consider installed capacity of thermal power plants in 2021-22: It is going to be 217 GW, Whereas Hydro(Must run) & Nuclear(must run) are 51 GW & 10
GW respectively.

Further,is we deduct hydro & Nuclear then we are left with 86-61=25 GW of peak demand to be supplied.

Considering a technical minimum of 55% for thermal plants,and keeping in view the installed capacity of thermal plants,This 25 GW of peak power can easily be
catered by thermal plants and requirement of running CCPP wont arise.

CONSIDERING FULL CAPACITY UTILIZATION OF SOLAR

here tech minimum will come into picture.

CASE 1 PEAK HOUR 12 NOON

PEAK DEMAND 226
MUST RUN SOLAR & RENEWABLES 140
CAPACITY TO BE HANDLED BY 86 GW
THERMAL & GAS

CONSIDERING FULL CAPACITY UTILIZATION OF wind & small hydro

CASE 2 OFF PEAK HRS 12 MIDNIGHT

 PEAK DEMAND 226
MUST RUN RENEWABLES 70
CAPACITY TO BE HANDLED BY THERMAL & GAS 156
Time 00:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13: 14:0 15:0 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:0 21:0 22:0 23 00:00
00 0 0 0 0 0 :0
0
Wind 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60

Nuclear 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

Solar 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 20 20 30 60 80 80 80 80 60 50 30 10 0 0 0 0 0 0

Thermal 160 160 160 160 160 160 150 140 140 130 100 80 80 80 80 100 110 130 150 160 160 160 160 16 160
& Gas 0
Peak 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 23 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 23 230
Demand 0 0

Chart Title
250

200

150

100

50

0
0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 0:00

Wind Nuclear Solar Thermal & Gas Peak Demand

TABLE:4

Data sheet Data sheet Data sheet

Installed Capacity as on 326 GW Installed Capacity as on 365 Installed Capacity as on 479
01.04.2017 31.10.2019 GW 01.04.2022(NEP) GW

Coal 192 Coal 204 Coal 217

Gas 25 Gas 25 Gas 25.7
Nuclear 6.7 Nuclear 6.7 Nuclear 10
Hydro 44.4 Hydro 45 Hydro 51
RES(Small 57 RES(Small 83 RES(Small 175
Hydro,Wind,Solar,Biomass) Hydro,Wind,Solar,Biomass) Hydro,Wind,Solar,Biomass)

RES Break Up 57 RES Break Up 83 RES Break Up 175

Solar 12 Solar 31 Solar 100
Wind 32 Wind 37 Wind 60
Biomass 8 Biomass 10 Biomass 10
Small Hydro(< 25 MW) 4 Small Hydro(< 25 MW) 4.6 Small Hydro(< 25 MW) 5

Demand(Peak) GW Source: 183 GW as on 31.10.19

19th
EPS(Electric
power
survey
report
2019)
2016-17 162
2021-22 226
2026-27 299