Impact of Climate Change on Wind Energy
Generation in Mannar-Sri Lanka
W.A.M.K.P. Wickramaarachchi 1 and M. Narayana 2
Department of Chemical and Process Engineering
University of Moratuwa
Sri Lanka
kethakiuom@gmail.com 1 and mahinsasa@uom.lk 2
Abstract—North Western coastal area of Sri Lanka is
identified as a region with substantial wind power potential.
Favorable geographical location and the terrain conditions have
effected for higher wind power generation. Presently, the Sri
Lankan government is promoting wind power generation in the
country. This study is intended to evaluate impact of climate
change on wind power generation in Mannar area. Wind data
collected in Mannar was used to develop generalized wind atlas
for the region. To generate wind atlas for the region measured
wind data, topography and elevation details are required. To
evaluate cost of wind energy generation in Mannar, suitable
commercial wind turbines were micro-sitted by superimposing
generalized wind atlas on selected wind turbine locations with
the effect of ground roughness. Wind power generation was
evaluated by considering wind turbine characteristics and
predicted wind potential of the locations. General Circulation
Models (GCM) and Regional Climate Downscaling (RCD) model
was predicted wind speed change trend in the region and
positive trend was identified. In the micro-sitting wake effect in
wind farms were also calculated. This study validated the
potential of wind power development target in Mannar with
viable cost of wind energy generation.
Keywords—climate change; wind potential; cost of wind energy;
micrositting
I. INTRODUCTION
Wind and climate variability are inextricably
interconnected. However, although much attention is given to
the potential effects of climate change on surface
temperatures and precipitation, there has been comparatively
minor discussion or analysis of changes in wind speeds.
Global wind speed is used to evaluate wind power generation
of wind power plant over its project life time. Wind potential
is a critical factor for viability of wind power generation,
which is mainly affected by cost of wind power generation in
a particular location.
Wind is generated due to pressure gradient, which is
developed by temperature difference, and Coriolis-effect.
Global warming will reduce the temperature difference, or
gradient, between the poles and the equator, mid latitude
winds will also be reduced. In the next few decades, under a
changing climate may affect greater variation in seasonal and
annual wind speeds. This is making influence to long-term
planning for wind power plant.
This study evaluates mean wind speed variation up to year
2050 in Mannar area in Sri Lanka by using a General
978-1-5090-0645-8/16/$31.00 ©2016 IEEE
237
Circulation Model and appraises effect of climate change to
the cost of wind energy generation.
II. EEFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON GLOBAL
WIND
Global air circulation is influenced by pressure variation
and Coriolis-effect. Pressure variation is taken place of
differences in atmospheric temperatures between the equator
and the North and South Poles. Increasing global average
surface temperatures may reduce temperature differences in
atmospheric temperatures between the equator and Polar
Regions.
Global warming is gradually increasing in the average
temperature of the Earth's atmosphere and its oceans. This
change is influencing to a permanent change of Earth's
climate. The temperature increasing of the Earth's atmosphere
affects to the variation of pressure gradient, which influences
to air circulations. The temperatures at poles are rising faster
than at the equator, then temperature gradient is becoming
smaller and this may reduce wind, especially in upper
latitudes [1]. This affects to vary (increase or decrease) both
wind speed and direction. “Fig 1” shows a global map of the
percentage of General Circulation Models (GCM) simulations
predicting increased annual-mean near-surface wind speed
values in 2050 using the A2 emission scenario. The A2
scenario is a more divided world regionally oriented
economic development by considering surface temperature
increase 2.0 - 5.4 °C [2]. The studies on regional wind speed
variation are essential to understand effect of climate change
for wind potential in Sri Lanka. According to the previous
study, the results of running the Canadian GCM with RCP 4.5
scenario was used to generate the future 30 years’ wind by
using the CGCM 20C3M dataset [3]. It indicates that in
certain regions of India, the wind speed would decrease by 2
to 3 %. However in the along coast Arabian Sea this wind
may go up to 6 to 8 % and 2 to 4 % along Bay of Bengal [3].
According to the Wind Energy Resources Atlas of Sri
Lanka and the Mladives in year 2003, wind power density in
Mannar is 500-600 W/m2 at 50m height [4]. In Talaimannar
surface roughness lengths is less than 0.03 as this area is
consisted of open sea and sandy lands [5]. The roughness
classes are defined as roughness length in meter (z0), which
results to the height above ground level where the wind speed
is theoretical zero. Roughness classes (R-classes) are shown
in the Table 1 [6].

Fig. 1. Percentage of global climate models showing increased annual mean
wind speed values in 2050 [7]
According to the wind speed anomalies averaged over 30
years as simulated by ECHAM5-HAM, associated with a
doubling of roughness length, Sri Lanka is located in wind
speed increasing region [8]. Wind speed directional changes
are can be observed due to climate change that may effect to
rainfalls of the country.
The Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment
(CORDEX) is a program developed by The World Climate
Research Program (WCRP) [9]. The purpose of establishment
was to produce an international coordinated framework with
the aim of developing an improved regional climate change
projections world-wide. Regional Climate Downscaling
(RCD) is applied all over the world to identify how the
climate change happens in future.
The results are very useful in making decisions on climate
change mitigation. RCD is taken place based on CORDEX
Domains which is a region defined according to geographical
coordinates. South Asia is one domain out of fourteen
CORDEX Domains. CORDEX in Six centers have involved
in the partnership of CORDEX South Asia Domain; Center
for Climate Change Research (CCCR), Indian Institute of
Table 1. The roughness classes
Roughness Length, Landscape
z0 in m
0.0002 Water surface
Open terrain with smooth surface i.e.
0.0024
runways
Agricultural area, no fences or hedges,
0.03
scattered buildings,
Agricultural area, some houses, hedges with
0.055
min. 1250m/¾ mile distance
Agricultural area, couple of houses, hedges
0.1
with min. 500m distance
Agricultural area with houses, shrubs, trees
0.2
and hedges with min. 250m distance
Villages, small towns forests or very rough
0.4
and uneven terrain
0.8 Lager cities with tall buildings
1.6 Very large cities with tall buildings
238
Tropical Meteorology (IITM), the World Climate Research
Program (WCRP), START, Swedish Meteorological
Hydrological Institute (SMHI), and University of Cape Town's
Climate System Analysis Group (CSAG).
In this study, Wind Speed CORDEX data for Mannar
region in Sri Lanka were selected considering geographical
coordinates. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)-
4.5 scenario is used this study (Moderate GHG emissions). It
represents stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 Watts per meter
squared in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value
and it includes long term, global emissions of greenhouse
gases, short lived species, and land use land cover in a global
economic framework [10]. Eastward near Surface10 wind
(uas) and Northward near Surface10 Wind (vas) at 10m
elevation were used to get resultant wind speed values in the
region. The time span is included in years. Predicted mean
speed values at 10m elevation in Manner area is shown in
“Fig. 2”. According to this prediction, present trend is
positive. Presently, mean wind speed at 10m height in
Mannar is increased by 0.5%.
III. WIND POWER GENERATION POTENTIAL IN
NORTH WESTERN AREA OF SRI LANKA
WAsP is a PC program for the prediction of wind climates
and power productions from wind turbines and wind farms.
WAsP is developed at Risø National Laboratory, Denmark.
The prediction based on wind data measured at stations in the
same region. The program includes a complex terrain flow
model and a roughness & sheltering obstacle model. To
generate wind atlases for relevant locations measured wind
data, topography and elevation details are required [11].
WAsP facilitates scaling so that, this study is considered in
terms of a consistent wind turbine hub height. This scaling,
(1) is based on the ratio of the wind speed (u(hub)) at hub
height (zhub) to the wind speed (u(anem)) at anemometer height
(zanem) and is cognisant of the surface roughness length
applicable to the wind turbine location (z0) .
4.7
4.65
Wind Speed (m/s)
4.6
4.55
4.5
4.45
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Year
Fig. 2. Predicted mean speed values at 10m elevation in Manner area
 ln hub 
z
uhub  z0  (1)
=
uanem ln anem 
z
 z0 

In this study, 9 months period of 10min logging time wind
data in the year 2011 at Nadukkuda (E: 79.7883°, N:
9.051635°) were used to predict wind power generation in
Mannar region by using the WAsP model. Missing wind data
over the year were predicted by the correlation of Puttalama
time series wind data. Correlation coefficient of time series
wind data collected at Puttalama and Mannar is 0.82
In this study, to evaluate cost of wind power generation,
Gamesa G97-2.0MW on-shore wind turbine was selected for
micro-sitting in Mannar as a case study [12] . Power curve of
the wind turbine is shown in “Fig 3”. Wind turbine details are
given in the Table 2. Fig. 5. Wind farm layout in coast of Mannar
In this study, two wind farms are micro-sitted in Mannar
area to evaluate viability of wind power generation. 26 wind Table 3. Annual energy production by WAsP model
turbines were micro-sitted in coast of Talaimannar and
another 24 wind turbines were micro-sitted in coast of Wind Farm AEP (GWh) Wake loss
Mannar with 10D apart from each wind turbine. Total install Coast of Talaimannar 347 1.06%
capacity of micro-sitted wind farms are 100MW. Layouts of Coast of Mannar 323 0.60%
wind farms are shown in the “Fig. 4” & “Fig. 5”.
According to the WAsP evaluations, annual energy Total AEP 670
production (AEP) of these wind farms is 670GWh. Annual
energy productions and wake loss of each wind farm are The performance of wind turbines can be negatively
shown in Table 3. affected by the presence of wind plant availability and
Table 2. Wind Turbine Details [12] uncertainties. Overall availability of the wind farm was
evaluated by considering wind turbine availability, wind
Hub height Wind rotor Diameter Capacity turbine performance variation due to site conditions,
90m 97m 2 MW
availability and losses of the gird. Wind turbine availability
depends on scheduled preventive maintenance of the wind
Power curve turbines. Selected availabilities are given below.
2500

Overall availability of the wind farm: 87%

2000
Wind turbines availability = 97%
CEB grid availability = 96%
1500 Wind turbine performance = 95%
Power (kW)

Electrical transmission efficiency = 98%

1000
Predicted monthly generations (GWh) were evaluated by
500
considering overall availability and all possible uncertainties
in the site. Main uncertainties are; wind measurement, Wind
speed spatial extrapolation, Power curve and wake loss in
0
0 5 10 15 20 25
wind farm. Total uncertainty of the annual energy production
Wind speed (m/s) (AEP) is calculated based on (2). Net uncertainty of AEP
because of component is presented in Table 4 [13]. Annual
Fig. 3. Power curve of wind turbine [12] energy production probability of exceedance is present in
“Fig. 6”.

∑
= (2)

Where: Utotal -mean uncertainty of all measurements

Ui - uncertainty of single measurement

Fig. 4. Wind farm layout in coast of Talaimannar

239
 Table 4: Total uncertainties of AEP [13] Table 5: Guaranteed P90 AEP and plant factors of wind farms

Net uncertainty Wind Farm AEP (P90) P90

Sensitivity Amount of
of AEP because (GWh) Plant Factor
factor uncertainty
of component
Coast of Talaimannar
267.28 0.59
Wind
Coast of Mannar 249.28 0.59
measurement 1.5 0.050 0.075
Wind speed Average PF 0.59
spatial
extrapolation 1.5 0.030 0.045 AEP (P90) – Annual net energy production which has a 90%
Power curve 1.0 0.006 0.006 chance of being exceeded.
Wake loss in
wind farm 1.0 0.017 0.017 Climate change effects to variation of wind speed. Present
Exceedance
probability
annual mean wind speed variation rate is 0.5% in Mannar.
uncertainty 0.09 The WAsP model evaluated annual P90 energy yield by the
wind farm in Talaimannar. That is 268.73GWh in year 2017.
A comprehensive understanding of the project Then at present, energy yield increasing rate is 0.03GWh/year
assumptions in combination with the performance of a for 1MW wind turbines installation capacity. Therefore, in
sensitivity analysis is required for financial modeling in order present situation, climate change is positively affected to the
to define an agreed base case. The result of annual energy finance viability of the wind projects in Mannar.
production (AEP) is called the P50. The probability of
IV. COST OF WIND ENERGY GENERATION
reaching a higher or lower annual energy production is 50:50.
A risk assessment includes the quantification of the project Cost of energy and initial cost of the system are the most
specific uncertainties and the whole range of exceedance important parameters in evaluating economic viability of
probabilities (Pxx) of the wind farm’s annual energy wind power systems. Levelized cost of energy (LCOE) can be
production. P75 is the annual energy production which is thought of as the price at which energy must be sold to break
reached with a probability of 75%. The risk that an annual even over the lifetime of the technology [13]. Alternatively,
energy production of P90 is not reached to 10%. Both P75 LCOE can be considered as the average cost per 1kWh of
and P90 values are generally used by bankers and investors useful electrical energy produced by the system, and may be
for their financing decisions. From a financiers opinion it is defined by;
,
preferable use P90 values due to the lower risks. Then this = (3)
study considers P90 value for cost of wind energy generation. Where;
Probability of exeedance of annual energy production in coast LCOE - Levelized cost of (wind) energy (US$/kWh)
of Mannar and coast of Talaimannar is presented in “Fig 6”. Cann.tot -Total annualised cost of the system (US$/year)
The guaranteed P90 capacities at the interconnection point E -Annual Wind Energy generation (kWh/year)
and plant factors (PF) of both wind farms are shown in Table
5. Total annualised cost of the system (Cann,tot) is the sum of
the annualised capital cost (Cann,cap), the annualised
Probability of Exceedance replacement cost and the annual operation and the
100%
Coast of Mannar maintenance cost.
90%
Coast of Talaimannar
80%
, = . (, ) (4)
70% Where;
60% Ccap - Initial Capital Cost
Probability

50%
CRF() - Capital Recovery Factor
i - Interest Rate
40%
Rproj - Project Life Time
30%
20% Annualized replacement cost of a system is the annualized
10% value of the all the replacement cost occurring throughout the
lifetime of the project minus the salvage value at the end of
0%
200 225 250 275 300 325 350 375 400 the project.
Anual Energy Production (GWh) ( )
(, )= (5)
( )
Fig. 6. Annual energy production probability of exceedance Where;
i - Real interest rate
N - Number of years

240
 According to the recent wind power plants installation in
the country, the capital and installation cost of large,
megawatt scale, wind turbines is about $1600 per kW
capacity of installation in Sri Lanka. Most commercial wind
turbines are in the range of 2 MW. The annual maintenance
costs are between 1.5% and 3% of the turbine cost but
increase with time as the turbines get older [14] [15]. Then in
this study, annual maintenance costs are taken as 3% of the
turbine capital cost. Based on Sri Lanka 10 year bond interest
rate, the real interest rate for Sri Lanka currently stands at
6.5% [16]. Life time of the project is taken as 20 years.
Levelized cost of wind energy generation in each wind
farm is given in the Table 6.
V. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION
According to the climate change model simulations, wind
speed increasing trend can be observed at Manner region in
Sri Lanka. In the year 2016, mean wind speed at 10m height
in Mannar is increased by 0.5% and about 0.03GWh/year
energy yield increase for 1MW installation capacity of wind
turbines. According to the climate change model, these rates
are gradually decreased. As positive wind climate change is
affected to the North-west region of the country, long term
wind energy evaluation can be exploited for energy plan in
the country. In this study, two wind farms of the 100MW
capacity were mico-sitted in Mannar area to evaluate cost
energy gereration in the area. Commercially available
Gamesa G97-2.0MW on-shore wind turbine was selected as a
case study. Talaimannar coast wind farm has higher wake loss
as two rows of wind turbines were micro-sitted and then plant
factor is also lower. Therefore, if Talaimannar will be utilized
for higher capacity of wind farm installations, plant factor
may be much lower than this case study. This study shows
cost of wind energy generation is very much competitive in
Mannar area with respect to the other places in the country
[17]. Present average cost of wind power generation is
0.04US$/kWh in Mannar. However, commercial power
purchasing tariff should be evaluated by considering amount
of debt and equity, amount of return on equity and debt
repayment plan with payback period of the project. Then
commercial wind energy tariff depends on capacity and
competition of investors and developers. The cost of wind
power generation in Mannar indicates viability to install large
scale commercial wind turbines in the region as infrastructure
development is also possible in the location wise.
This study was based on only 9 months data in Nadukkuda.
Missing data in the year was predicted by linear regression
with the correlation of Narakkaliya long term time series
wind data. Then for more accurate study, at least 3 years
continuous data is required.
Table 6: Levelized cost of wind energy generation
Wind Farm LCOE
(US$/kWh)
Coast of Talaimannar
0.038
Coast of Mannar 0.037
Mean Levelized cost 0.0375
241
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
The authors would like to thank Indian Institute of
Tropical Meteorology for providing CORDEX data, Survey
Department for providing detail maps and the Sustainable
Energy Authority for providing measured wind data at
Manner.
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