Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
Um livro imprescindível
Nos últimos sete anos, o varejo tem conquistado uma importância cada vez
maior na economia brasileira, se tornando, ao lado dos serviços, uma das âncoras
do crescimento do país.
O bom desempenho que se verifica no segmento é decorrente da evolução do
crédito e da renda, dos programas sociais de transferência de renda, dos juros
mais baixos e da crescente formalização do emprego. Essa conjunção de fatores
positivos estabelece um novo dinamismo para o varejo, ao mesmo tempo em que
determina novos padrões de concorrência.
Por estar em franca expansão, seguindo a elevação do consumo das famílias
brasileiras no Produto Interno Bruto (PIB), o varejo vem sendo objeto de investi-
mentos crescentes e de uma onda de fusões e aquisições.
Essa transformação marca um novo tempo para os negócios e as estratégias no vare-
jo. Explorar multicanais de distribuição; firmar presença e marca nas redes sociais; ter sua
atividade voltada para a sustentabilidade; trabalhar com novas formas de pagamento;
An indispensable book
In the last seven years, retail has been achieving a growing importance
in the Brazilian economy, being, along services, one of the engines of
the growth of the country.
The good performance of the segment relies on the evolution of credit
and income, on the social income transfer programs, on the lower interest
rates and on the growing job formalization. This mix of positive factors
establishes a new dynamic for the retail, at the same time defines new
competition standards.
For being in strong expansion, following the evolution of the
Brazilian families’ spendings in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), retail
has been object of growing investments and of a wave of mergers and
acquisitions.
This transformation marks a new age for retail businesses and
strategies. To explore multiple distribution channels; to get a remarkable
presence in the social networks; to have its activities focused on
sustainability; to use new payment tools; to coordinate value chains;
and to take part on productive clusters are some of the new challenges
the segment has to face. Due to this, to know the market and to implement
adequate marketing initiatives are pivotal to achieve good results and
competitive advantages.
Facing this new context, retail still lacks statistics and information,
as it is diversified and unconsolidated. To understand the sector is fun-
damental to the ones working in it and to the ones with some kind of
trade, economic and financial relationship with it.
This is one of the missions of this book, Data & Retailing, that
approaches the Brazilian retail in an unique way, fully presenting it in
figures and analyzing its peculiarities.
In its third edition, Data & Retailing has built up a successful route,
acknowledged for all who use it daily as a decision-making supporting tool.
At the same time, it is a research work engaged in the diffusion of knowledge.
From all those aspects, there’s no company in the market more
competent to prepare such a work than GS&MD - Gouvêa de Souza,
Brazil’s most experienced retail consulting company, with more than
two decades contributing to the segment. I salute its CEO, Marcos
Gouvêa de Souza, on behalf of all the company’s board, for the continuity
of this brilliant initiative.
Serasa Experian is aligned to GS&MD - Gouvêa de Souza in this
project, as it is a witness and plays a role in the success of the Brazilian
retail, as well as seeing very clearly the relevance of this segment in the
economy and for the wellness of the Brazilian people.
Serasa Experian is a company that supports business, credit decisions
and marketing strategies, helping four million transactions daily and
with 400,000 direct and indirect clients all over Brazil. With Serasa
Experian, retailers increase the security of their transactions and add value
and edge to their market initiatives. It is impossible to think about retail
without Serasa Experian, and vice-versa.
The scenario for the next years is of continuity of expansion of
consumer credit, impacting the retail activity and demanding from the
segment new maturity levels in its financial and marketing management.
Retailers shall be prepared for it.
The much expected implementation of the positive records will bring a
better condition for the growth of retail, due to the expansion of credit and
reduction of default and interest rates. It will be so because positive records
use behavioral information to provide a better credit risk evaluation. The
current credit information system, based exclusively on negative records,
restricts the credit availability to new consumers and do not differentiate
the good payers from the bad ones, socializing the default and its costs.
I believe that, with the positive records, future editions of Data &
Retailing will show even more expressive and consistent figures.
In the 21st century, retail has in the proximity to customers one of its
Ricardo Loureiro
Presidente
Serasa Experian e Experian América Latina
Ricardo Loureiro
President
Serasa Experian and Experian Latin America
Autores 345
Authors 345
Melhorar, sempre
To always improve
At last, we give special thanks to all our contributors for this edition.
Adriana Colloca, Alberto Serrentino, Alexandre Horta, Alexandre Ma-
chado, Beth Furtado, Carlos Ferreirinha, Claudia Bittencourt, Daiana
Inocente, Daniela Siaulys, Eduardo Macedo, Enzo Donna, Fabio Beltrão,
Flavio Franceschetti, Ivan Correa, Luiz Eduardo Pacheco, Luiz Goes,
Marcelo Waideman, Paula Warick, Renato Müller, Rodrigo Catani and
to all professionals of the infrastructure area of the company, who,
advancing in their personal attributions, prompted to help us and offer
to the national and international markets such a great contribution and
make us proud and pleased with such work.
This edition of Data & Retailing is a renovation of the commitment of
GS&MD – Gouvêa de Souza to keep contributing for a better analysis,
interpretation, projection, maturation, professionalization, formalization and
development of the Retail and Distribution sectors in Brazil, with a true
picture of the evolution of these processes and their benefits for the country.
Thanks to the ones who encourage and give support to us. Enjoy
your reading. Feel free to make remarks and suggestions for us to keep
improving our proposal.
A grande tela
O macrocenário e seu impacto sobre o mercado
A visão da floresta
Os grandes fatores que influenciam o desempenho do varejo
S ince the publication of the second edition of Data & Varejo (Data &
Retailing), in 2008, the world has passed through a complicated
period. The global financial crisis affected the whole planet and
contributed to consolidate a position change in the world economic view.
While the US and Europe had a strong retraction, China kept
growing quickly and other emerging countries, such as Brazil, only
saw a little decrease in the expansion pace. Thus, the investments have
been focused, more and more, on markets that combine great population,
economic growth and economic and political stability. Brazil has, like
few, all these factors.
The consequence is that since the 70’s, Brazil didn’t show so positive
perspectives. The economic indicators consistently develop and the
World Cup and Olympic Games contribute for a plan of many years of
growth. Even with great challenges, such as the (tax, politic, reformation,
social security) reforms needs to release the productive sectors, the
Brazilian market steps in the direction of a higher maturity.
In the next chapters, Data & Retailing brings a view of the global
economy moves in the crisis period. Then, it exclusively presents the
first results of GRMI – Global Retail Measurement Index, that measures
the maturity if the main retail markets and, for the first time, compares
markets, regions and countries in aspects related to the modernity,
competitivity, consolidation and internationalization. GRMI creates a
ne may say that, between 2008 and 2009, all economies in the
O planet were affected, in a greater or lower extent, by the international
financial crisis. The largest economies of the developed world (United
States, Europe and Japan) went through a recession which combined the
current stagnation since the end of the Cold War (in the European and
Japanese cases) with a financial system under intense distrust after the
subprime crisis. Some emerging countries, in the other hand, had a
temporary slow down, such as China, while others had a slight retraction,
such as Brazil.
The scenario which originated the crisis began in the early decade, when
the Stock Exchanges saw the actions of companies associated with the so-
called “New Economy” go down as soon as the investors got tired of waiting
for something more than only a promising future in the balance sheets of
these companies. The crisis was increased by the September 11th, 2001
terrorist attacks, which threatened putting the world in a heavy recession. In
order to revert the oncoming economic chaos, the Federal Reserve (Fed, the
US central bank) began the monetary shrinkage policy to offer cheap,
abundant credit for the people to spend more and move the economy. Thus,
the federal fund rates (equivalent to the Brazilian Selic rate) fell from a ran-
ge of 6.5% in December, 2000 up to only 1% in July, 2003.
It means that lending to the safest creditor of the planet, the US
Treasury, was not yielding enough not even to replace the period’s
inflation. In such scenario, the only way the agents would get greater
returns to their capital was by accepting greater risks. And this is what
happened actually.
Ample, relatively cheap credit was made available even to borrowers
with doubtful capacity to honor such commitments (the customers
classified as subprime). They ran to finance real estate, contributing
towards inflating the price of homes in the United States. In 2004, the
Fed decided to retake elevation of the basic interest rate to fight the price
inflation which was over the economy, aggravated by natural catastrophes
such as Katrina hurricane, which impaired extraction of the oil in the
Gulf of Mexico (thus impacting price of the fuel). Then, the US
government started offering more interesting returns for those who lent
resources, competing for credit with other agents in the capital market –
with the advantage of offering really low risks.
At this point in time, lack of credit available for new loans, allied to
less friendly interest rates, made it difficult for the US citizens to access
the real estate market. Since then, the demand for homes was retracted,
bringing a fall in the price of these goods.
Upon the market price fall, some Americans concluded the real estate
they owned valued less than the balances remaining from their debts.
Therefore, it was more interesting to return the real estate to the banks in
order to reduce losses. And this is how uncertainties arose on the financial
Crescimento
do PIB –
13,0%
2006/2008
9,6%
9,4%
8,7%
8,1%
7,3%
6,1%
5,7%
5,6%
5,1%
4,7%
4,6%
3,7%
3,1%
2,4%
2,4%
2,1%
1,3%
0,9%
0,4%
-0,2%
-1,2%
-1,5%
-2,4%
-4,1%
-5,2%
-7,9%
GDP growth – Austrália Brasil Chile China EUA Índia Japão Rússia União Européia
Australia Brazil Chile China USA India Japan Russia
2006/2008 European Union
health of some institutions: no one knew exactly the actual value of the
assets pertaining to banks which executed these financing modalities,
as well as the assets of banks which lent to such banks. And so on.
When a non-financial company goes bankrupt, the direct and immediate
alien loss falls upon its employees (who will not receive salaries, labor rights,
etc.) and suppliers (which payments will not be settled). A financial
institution, in turn, never goes bankrupt alone. Not only its employees and
suppliers lose, but also any and all individual and legal entity which has
funds in these institutions greater than the limits covered in each country
(in Brazil this limit is of approximately R$ 60,000). Thus, companies with
cash difficulties for reasons alien to its operation, such as the bankruptcy
of a bank, may also go bankrupt, leaving its employees without receiving
salaries and labor rights; and suppliers without funds, which may lead them
not to pay their employees and suppliers... This is the nefarious mechanism
of loss transmission throughout the entire economy.
Within this context of the crisis which spread throughout the planet
in the end of 2008 and in 2009, the Brazilian retail gains importance by
presenting a consistent performance during this complicated period. The
difficulties imposed by the global crisis evidenced a reality which might
continue in effect over the next years: the Brazilian retail presents
promising results and shortens the distance, in terms of size and
maturation, in relation to the more advanced economies.
Among the main global economies, the Brazilian retail had a
highlighted performance in 2009, with 5.9% expansion. Although it
stayed distant from the 15.6% of the Chinese market, the country
presented a much greater growth, for example, than the European Union
(1.2%), Japan (-5.0%) and United States (-5.9%).
More important than the negative performance of the retail, one shall
stress, in case of the main markets, a behavioral change in the consumers.
And, in such case, the United States are an emblematic example.
The country’s retail experienced, with the economic recovery
following the 9/11 terrorist attacks, some years of strong expansion. In
2005, for example, the country’s retail grew 7.8%; in the following year,
6.3%. As of 2007, with the first contrary winds coming from the financial
market, the sales grew only 3.8%. In 2008, when Lehman Brothers went
bankrupt and official beginning of the financial crisis, there was still an
expansion of 2.3% in sales, but in 2009 the decrease achieved 5.9%.
15,6%
Crescimento do
varejo em 2009
5,9% 5,6%
-1,5% -1,9%
-5,0%
-5,9%
China
China
Brasil
Brazil
Austrália
Australia
Chile
Chile
Reino Unido União Européia França
European Union France
Itália
Italy
Alemanha
Germany
Japão
Japan
EUA
USA
Retail sales
UK
growth in 2009
Institutos oficiais de estatísticas dos países / Countries' official statistics agencies
Nota: Os dados apresentados não computam o comércio de veículos e peças e de material de construção e os dados
chineses abrangem atacado e varejo.
Note: data do not aggregate cars, autoparts and building supplies sales; Chinese data range wholesale and retail
Board Institute show that the index achieved 63.3 points in May, over
57.7 in April. The result is down below the beginning of the historic
series (100 points in 1985) and quite distant from the 89.2 points of
August, 2007, in the pre-crisis period. As shall be seen in chapter 3,
performance of the consumer confidence is quite different in the Brazilian
market, which is helpful when explaining the good moment of the
national economy.
One shall stress, however, that two factors would allow Brazil for a
relative plating to the external crisis:
• the strong weight of its internal market: the lower dependence upon
the foreign trade allowed for most part of the economic activities to slow
down, but continue growing. The industry was the most affected sector,
especially those sectors more intimately connected to exportation and
CAPÍTULO
DATA & VAREJO/DATA
UM – SOB OS&EFEITOS
RETAILING
DO TSUNAMI GLOBAL/CHAPTER ONE – UNDER THE EFFECTS OF THE GLOBAL TSUNAMI 27
seguissem em crescimento. A indústria foi o setor mais afetado, em especial aque-
les setores mais intimamente ligados à exportação e fabricação de bens de capital
(máquinas e equipamentos), já que os investimentos foram postergados até que
ficassem mais claros os desdobramentos da crise;
• um sistema financeiro sólido e não contaminado por ativos internacionais:
com o fim da inflação a partir da metade dos anos 90, o sistema bancário brasilei-
ro passou por profundas transformações. Diversas instituições foram varridas do
mapa quando não conseguiram competir nesse novo contexto. Para evitar que
houvesse uma crise financeira, o governo se viu obrigado a interferir nesse merca-
do, saneando e aplicando rígidos controles, que se mostraram úteis no decorrer da
crise financeira de 2008-2009 ao evitar desconfianças sobre a solidez do sistema
e eventuais ataques especulativos.
Nos próximos anos, a perspectiva de que o país possa deslanchar, alcançando
crescimento substanciais e prolongados, se deve a diversos motivos, que serão
PIB brasileiro
em 2009 –
Ótica do 20,8%
Gastos do governo
consumo Government expenses
16,5%
Investimentos
Investments
62,8%
-0,1%
Consumo das famílias
Exportações
Family spendings
Exports, less Imports
Brazilian GDP
in 2009 –
Spending
approach
IBGE
Projeção de
crescimento do
10,0%
9,9%
PIB – 2010/2012
8,8%
8,4%
8,0%
6,0%
5,5%
4,8%
4,7%
4,1%
4,1%
4,0%
3,7%
3,5%
3,5%
3,3%
3,1%
3,0%
2,6%
2,4%
2,2%
2,0%
2,0%
1,9%
1,8%
1,0%
GDP growth
Austrália Brasil Chile China EUA Índia Japão Rússia União Européia forecast –
Australia Brazil Chile China USA India Japan Russian European Union
2010/2012
World Economic Outlook (April 2010) – International Monetary Fund
rich urban centers and, with the minimum revenue programs, in the more
poor and peripheral regions of the country. There is also a strong lack of
infrastructure, a problem which shall have more attention, since the
country will host events such as the 2014 World Cup and the Olympic
Games in Rio de Janeiro, in 2016. Concurrently, the country is
experiencing the challenge to exploit the oil discovered in the pre-salt
layer, which attracted the attention of foreign investors and opened great
growth expectation for the coming years.
As regards retail, there are some reasons to bet that this shall be an
attractive economic space in the next years:
• Despite the accelerated growth of retail over the last years, there
is still much room to be occupied by the sector. The economic
conditions, which shall be discussed in the next chapters, are favorable
and even the largest retail networks in the super and hypermarket sector
habitantes em
2009
Countries 307
232
with more 191
165 164 152 141 128 108
than 100
million people China Índia EUA Indonésia Brasil Bangladesh Paquistão Nigéria Rússia Japão México
in 2009 China India USA Indonesia Brazil Bangladesh Pakistan Nigeria Russia Japan Mexico
Renda média
46.381
per capita
38.911
(paridade de
poder de
32.608
29.729
compra) –
Estimativa 2009
14.920 14.341
10.514
6.567
2.941 Average per
capita income
EUA Austrália Japão União Européia Rússia Chile Brasil China Índia (PPP) –
USA Australia Japan European Union Russia Chile Brazil China India
2009 estimates
World Economic Outlook (April 2010) – International Monetary Fund
real interest rate of the country continues among the largest of the world. In
a recent past, the basic interest rate (Selic) was used as a means to attract
international exchange resources in the search for a more attractive
compensation, allowing for the external accounts of the country to be offset.
Currently, the country has experienced continuous (but decreasing) surpluses
in the commercial balance sheet and the focus of the interest rate started to
be financing the heavy Brazilian administrative machine. The need for
financing by the Government is the big impairment so that the interest rates
can reduce. Even so, in 2009 the interest rates could, for the first time, be
used as anti-cyclical measure against the international financial crisis.
The volume of financed funds, in turn, presents better perspectives
in the short term. The country’s credit/GDP relation achieved 45%, a
record level. Even so, this percentage is low for the international
standards: countries such as Chile and Panama present credit stocks
proportionally greater than Brazil.
2,9% 2,9%
2,6%
2,3%
2,0%
1,9%
Real interest
rates –
Brasil Indonésia Rússia China Colômbia Chile Hungria
March/2010 Brazil Indonesia Russia China Colombia Chile Hungary