im. J. Bur, Zool, Vol. 4 1990 pp. 87-91 TRENDS OF AMBIENT TEMPERATURES AT ROURKELA (INDIA) FOR THE COLDEST MONTHS (Received July 1, 1990; Accepted August 5, 1990) T.N. Tiwari & M. K, Patel Department of Physics, Regional Engineering Gollege, Rourkela-769 008, India * Qnality Gontrol Laboratory, IDL Chemicals Limited, Rourkela-769 016, India Ambient temperature data for the coldest months at Rourkela (January and December) for the period of 1968-1989 have been analysed to study the trends of the rinimum, maximum and average monthly tempe- raturcs, Tt is found that the minimui temperature has been slowly ine- easing, while the maximum and average tempetatures have been slowly decreasing at Rourkela, for both January and December, over the last 22 years, These couclusivis, however, are only tentative due to insufficiest data, One of the serious consequences of environmental degradation is the changes in the astablishad climatic and rainfa'l patterns. In India, for example, floods and droughts appear to have become more frequent in the last few decades. Since ours 's an agricultural economy, and about 77% of aur population depends (directly or Indirectly) on agriculture for Its livelihood, any long-term changec in the climate are bound to have serious implications for our agricultural productivity and national economy, Its Important, therefore, to closely monitor any changes in our climate as aresult of rapid industrialisation, Very recently the present authors studied tho variability of the annual rainfall in Sangli district of Maharastra! and at Rourkela’, and roportod on the trends of annua! rainfall” at Rourkela. Continuing these inves! gations, we investigate here the long term trends of ambient temperatures at Row kela during the coldest months of the yearTiwarl & Patel ~ 88] i ; in the state of Orissa in Ing} nt industrial town in dia, most Import yn th-wost of Calcutta, and has an estimatey imately 415 Mm presence of two heavy Industries (steel ang 0,000. Due ia noarly 300 small-scale units, Rourkela offe, nt dy nemsnvivonmental cnamuesy tS effects agg e Rourkela is the It is situated approx population of about 3,50,00 fe tilisers), many medium I an ideal opportunity for management. Theoretical Considerations + The available data (collected by the Water Resources | Manesonent Centre, Re- gional Engineering. College, Ruurkela) on the minimum, maxima ani ee Monthly fomperatures during the two coldest months (January and December) at Rourkela torr eawn in Table 1 for tho 22-year nariod (1968-1960), e these data for ascertaining the general trends of ambient temperatures is to treat them as a function of time and fit the Dest straight Tires. to thom, Ifthe slope of such a straight line is positive, the given function has been increasing with time. A negative slope on tho other hand, implies a dacraase in the function with time. In addition, the magnitude of this slope gives the rate of increase ar decrease with time. The caciost mothad to analys Let y be a function of an independent variable x, defined by the’ linear relation y=Ar+B, coeff) and let (x; ,- yi) be ‘n’ pairs of the observed values of these variables (i — 1 and n = no. of observations = 22, in our case). Then, according to the well-known method of least squarest, the best value of the slope ‘A’ of th i tao ese eles he straight line defined by n 2 (xy)—(2 x). (£ y), Am 2) where , see (31 and all the summations are to be taken from 4 ton.Tronds of Ambient Temperatures at Rourkela [ 89 ‘Table 1—Minimum (Min,), maximum (Max,) and average (Ave,) temperatures at Rourkela for the coldest months January and December Year Temperature (°C) danuary December Min. Max. ‘Ave. Min Max. Ave. 1968 5.9 20.7 118 39 25.7 17.3 1960 64 209 185 11 3d 19.4 1970 8.0 ata 19.7 6.0 44 20.2 1071 84 34.5 20.3 59 34.5 202 1972 x 33.8 19.7 87 31.3 20.0 1973 89 32.5 20.7 13 28,2 18.0 1974 14 #16 19.5 8.2 32.4 203 1975 66 30.0 18.3 15 31.3 19.4 1976 13 92, 19.8 83 30.5 19.4 1971 56 31.0 18.3 9.2 31.2 20.2 1978 87 O17 20.2 73 30.4 18.7 1979 8.9 34.7 208 "4 333 22,2 s9R0 64 35.6 20.8 61 36.7 214 4981 67 20.4 18.0 5.0 29° 19.4 1982 56 35,0 20.8 89 33.9 ated 1988 61 32.2 19.1 78 218 178 1934 18 28.9 18.3 61 28.3 112 1985 10.0 28.8 10.1 18 21.8 178° 1986 58 30.0 178 18 26.1 16.9 1987 ot 244 15.2 WA 20.7 18.9 ee ee eee es A 1 20.7 11 eKTiwari & Patel 90) mits L for the ambient Table 2—Slope parameter A and 93°;- confidence limits Lf temperatures at Rourkela during the coldest months L Month Type of temp. A Vanuery Minimum’ + 967 Maximum = M37 Average — 0.026 December Minimum. + 6,056 Maximum — 0.144 Average — 0.045 Of course, one should apply the appropriate tests of significance before drawing any conclusions on the basis of the slope parameter ‘A’ calculated from Eq. (1j—-(3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION : ring the minimum, maximum and avarage monthly temperatures as and the years as the independent variabla x, the slope parameter A was calculated in each case by applying Eq. (1)—(3) to the ambient temperature data given in Table 1, For the test of significance, the well-known Student’s t-test! was. utilized the 95% —confidence limits ‘L' for the slope ‘A’ shown in Table 2 to calculate in each case. Our final results are Acclose study of Table’ 2 reveals many interesting and important aspects of long-term trends of ambient temperatures at Rourkela during the two, coldest months Of the year. In the first lace, we infer from the sign of the slope parametor ‘A’ that the Seared sing, for January as well A jegunven during the last 22 year period of 1968-1989. Seco Ih ‘A’ indicate that the anni Shi a | " ual rate of decrease of the maximum monthly. temperatures has pach larger, for both the months, compared to the ann the average temperatures, eanTrends of Ambient Temperatures at Rourkela ca It Is obvious from the values of the 95%—confidence limits ‘L' (the last column of tthe above conclusions are, at best, only tentative, since the values of L Teraiays larger than tho corresponding values af tha slope A. Since the present investigation has indicated some climatic changes at Rourkela over the last 22 years, as a result of environmental pollution and other reasons, data over @ longer period should be collected to resolve tha uncertainty mentioned above, Table 2) that ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS : The authors are grateful to Mr. A. K. Pradhan, Co-ordinator , Water Resources Manayement Centro, Regional Fnginearing College, Rourkela, for providing us the temperature data. We are thanktul to Prof. S. Misra, Principal, Regional Engineering College, Rourkela, and to Mr. B. © Pati, Vice-President, IDL Chemicals Limited, Rourkela, for research tacilities, constant encouragement and full co-operation. REFERENCES : 4. Tiwarl, T. N. (1989). Zion J. Bao, & Agri, 4: 111, Tiwari, T. N. (1989), Indian J. Eno, Agri, 4 : 149. 3. Tiwari, T, N. and Patol, M.K (1989). Indian J. Kav. & Agn., 4: 195. 4, Wonnacott, T.H, and Wonnacott, R. J. (1981). In: Regression; A Second Course tn ~sratistics, John Wiley & Sono, Now York.