Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
Main Issues
• Derivation of CAPM
• Applications of CAPM
• Empirical Evidence
• APT
Chapter 8 CAPM and APT 8-1
1 Introduction
Portfolio theory analyzes investors’ asset demand given asset
returns.
E [r̃i] = ?
Fall 2006
c J. Wang 15.401 Lecture Notes
8-2 CAPM and APT Chapter 8
MCAPi MCAPi
wi = n = .
j=1 MCAPj MCAPM
3 Derivation of CAPM
Assumptions for this chapter:
Implications:
Fall 2006
c J. Wang 15.401 Lecture Notes
8-4 CAPM and APT Chapter 8
There are only three risky assets, A, B and C. Suppose that the
tangent portfolio is
Investor Riskless A B C
1 100 100 200 100
2 200 200 400 200
3 -300 450 900 450
Total 0 750 1500 750
Claim:
5.00
4.50
Efficiency frontier
4.00
3.50
Return (%, per month)
3.00
T=M
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0
Standard Deviation (%, per month)
Fall 2006
c J. Wang 15.401 Lecture Notes
8-6 CAPM and APT Chapter 8
4 The CAPM
Expected return.
Δr̄p
= r̄i − rF.
Δwi
Risk.
w1 r1 w2 r2 ··· w n rn
w1 r1 2σ2
w1 w1 w2 σ12 · · · w1 wn σ1n
1
w2 r2 w2 w1 σ21 2σ2
w2 · · · w2 wn σ2n
2
.. .. ... ..
··· . . .
The sum of the entries of the i-th-row and the i-th column is the
total contribution of asset i to portfolio variance:
n
wi2 σi2 + 2 wi wj σij .
j=i
= 2 Cov[r̃i, r̃p].
Δσp 1 Δσp2
= = Cov[r̃i , r̃p]/σp = σip/σp.
Δwi 2σp Δwi
Fall 2006
c J. Wang 15.401 Lecture Notes
8-8 CAPM and APT Chapter 8
5.00
4.50
Efficiency frontier
4.00
3.50
Return (%, per month)
3.00
T
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0
Standard Deviation (%, per month)
Re-writing
r̄i − rF r̄M − rF
=
(σiM/σM) σM
σiM
r̄i − rF = 2
(r̄M − rF) = βiM (r̄M − rF)
σM
where
2
βiM = σiM/σM
Fall 2006
c J. Wang 15.401 Lecture Notes
8-10 CAPM and APT Chapter 8
r̄
SML
6
M
r̄ M ⎫ v
⎪
r̄ ` ` s ⎪
⎬
i ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` `
`
` r̄ − rF
M
`
` ⎪
⎪
`
`
⎭
r F
`
`
`
`
`
` -
βi βM = 1 β
Fall 2006
c J. Wang 15.401 Lecture Notes
8-12 CAPM and APT Chapter 8
where
• E[ε̃i] = 0
• Cov[r̃M, ε̃i] = 0.
• Beta.
• Alpha.
Beta
2 2
1.5 1.5
1 1
return
return
0.5 0.5
0 0
−0.5 −0.5
10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40
time time
2 2
1.5 1.5
asset return
asset return
1 1
0.5 0.5
0 0
−0.5 −0.5
0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
market return market return
Fall 2006
c J. Wang 15.401 Lecture Notes
8-14 CAPM and APT Chapter 8
Sigma
1.5 1.5
1 1
return
return
0.5 0.5
0 0
−0.5 −0.5
10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40
time time
1.5 1.5
1 1
return
return
0.5 0.5
0 0
−0.5 −0.5
10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40
time time
systematic non-systematic
component component
r̃i − rF = βiM (r̃M − rF) + ε̃i .
Var[ε̃] = 0.0700.
σε = 0.2646.
Fall 2006
c J. Wang 15.401 Lecture Notes
8-16 CAPM and APT Chapter 8
Example. Two assets with the same total risk can have very
different systematic risks.
2 = β 2 σ2 + σ2
σ1 1M M 1ε
= 0.19
2 = β 2 σ2 + σ2
σ2 2M M 2ε
= 0.19.
However
2 (1.5)2 (0.2)2
R1 = = 47%
0.19
2 (0.5)2 (0.2)2
R2 = = 5%.
0.19
Alpha
• ...
Fall 2006
c J. Wang 15.401 Lecture Notes
8-18 CAPM and APT Chapter 8
6 Applications of CAPM
Example. Required rates of return on IBM and Dell.
5. Applying CAPM:
r̄IBM = rF + βIBM,VW (r̄VW − rF )
AALA AmerAlia 2.250 -2.25 10.05 0.03 42.72 1.30 6.06 -1.15 60
AOL America Online 67.438 2.40 4.12 0.25 17.17 0.52 2.44 1.93 60
GNLK GeneLink 0.290 -7.74 16.15 0.44 37.30 2.10 9.92 -4.79 17
GM General Mtrs 82.813 1.01 -0.57 0.27 6.98 0.21 0.99 1.01 60
TSN Tyson Foods 11.125 1.13 -2.31 0.23 8.55 0.26 1.21 1.09 60
Note
Fall 2006
c J. Wang 15.401 Lecture Notes
8-20 CAPM and APT Chapter 8
The dots show the actual average risk premiums from portfolios with
different betas.
2. CAPM does not seem to work well over the last 30 years:
The dots show the actual average risk premiums from portfolios with
different betas over different periods. The relation between beta and
actual average return has been much weaker since the mid-1960s.
Fall 2006
c J. Wang 15.401 Lecture Notes
8-22 CAPM and APT Chapter 8
Since mid-1960s:
8 Summary of CAPM
CAPM determines risk-return trade-off:
CAPM is controversial:
Fall 2006
c J. Wang 15.401 Lecture Notes
8-24 CAPM and APT Chapter 8
where
where
(i.e., αi = 0).
Suppose that
rF r̄M −rF r̄N −rF
5% 8% 2%
Asset bM bN
A 1.0 1.0
B 1.5 0.2
C 1.0 0.6
Fall 2006
c J. Wang 15.401 Lecture Notes
8-26 CAPM and APT Chapter 8
Suppose that r̄A was instead 10% (and it has only factor risks).
10 Implementation of APT
The implementation of APT involves three steps:
2. Model itself does not say what the right factors are.
Fall 2006
c J. Wang 15.401 Lecture Notes
8-28 CAPM and APT Chapter 8
11 Homework
Readings:
• BKM Chapters 9.
Assignment:
• Problem Set 5.