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Article history: As the third-largest natural gas consumption market, natural gas is of great significance to the economic growth and structure
Received 26 January 2018 of China. The promotion of natural gas will greatly change the production in every industry directly or indirectly. Based on
Received in revised form 7 October 2018 the modified Cobb-Douglas function, this paper established the panel data from 30 provinces of 2000–2014 to study the
Accepted 21 November 2018 Available online
relationship through panel quantile regres-sion. The panel quantile results proved that the higher level of economy, the greater
22 November 2018
the marginal effect of natural gas is on economic growth; then considering the different economy scale of provinces, the panel
data is divided into three groups, the results have drawn the same conclusion. Thus, measures to develop natural gas and
Keywords:
reform gas market have been put forward, including deepening market-oriented reform of natural gas system, perfecting the
Natural gas consumption
Economic growth construction and management of pipeline transportation and encouraging the consumption of natural gas.
Marginal effect
Dynamic association
© 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
1. Introduction new proven geological reserves has been more than 500 billion cubic meters
for 14 years. Moreover, Zhang Kang et al. (2015) con-cluded that, in the last
According to United Nations data platform, the total green-house gas decade the untapped reserves of natural gas in China have obviously
emissions ratio of China to the world has been increased rapidly from 2000, increased, the undeveloped rate of geo-logical reserves has obviously
and the CO2 emissions of China has reached 10,249,460,000 tons in 2013, increased, and the development of natural gas in China lags behind the
which accounts for 28.6 percent of total world emissions. Faced with the exploration, implying the great potential to the natural gas supply (Kang and
increasing pressure of reduc-ing carbon emissions, the reform in energy Tiejun, 2015). And this case can be explained in technical and managerial
utilization is urgent and inevitable; while maintaining economic growth, aspects (Li et al., 2018a; 2018b), the complicated gasification process could
decreasing carbon emissions through the adjustment of energy input is block fil-ters causing technical problems and the market status limited the
effective and practicable. Compared with other primary energy, natural gas demand and exploitation (Li et al., 2018a).
has been proved to be the optimal choice to achieve such transition
¨ On the other hand, according to the ranking of PIW, the top 50 have
because of its low-carbon emissions. Meanwhile, the 13th Five- occupied 82% of the total reserves and 53% of the total production, the
¨
Year National Planhas pointed out that it is necessary to vigorously develop privilege of monopolists in upstream exploitation have a negative effective on
natural gas resources and increase its proportion in pri-mary energy gas industry. Monopoly enterprises take strong control to the upstream, and
consumption, which should play an important role in energy transformation. large companies occu-pied the main position in the downstream. There is the
similar situation in China, the natural gas reserves of the three major oil
In the past decade, China has become the second-largest econ-omy and enterprises (PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOCC) account for about 98 of our total
the third-largest natural gas consumer market in the world, the natural gas reserves. At present, the oligopoly patter has established in upstream
consumption and economic growth in China developed sustainably, steadily (exploration and development) and the middle (pipeline transition);
and rapidly with influencing each other. According to data from China downstream (distribution and sales) are mainly in the charge of regional gas
Ministry of Land and Resources, the natural gas reserves of China continues companies, which has caused resources waste, great producing cost, low
to grow rapidly, the efficiency and high price. There-fore, to figure out whether there is a
cointegration relationship between natural gas consumption and economy and
how to facili-tate economy through the input of natural gas, the analysis
between
∗
Corresponding author.
E-mail address: upcguo0316@126.com (Z.-G. Li).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2018.11.006
0954-349X/© 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.
0/).
Z.-G. Li et al. / Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 49 (2019) 334–339 335
natural gas consumption and economic growth in China could be useful to about action mechanism between them. For empirical model, time series
improve natural gas market and formulate the energy strategy to develop the model and panel model are mainly chosen, all of which perform ordinary
low-carbon economy. linear regression on variables, while when the economic growth rate changes,
and there may be a dynamic equi-librium between the two. Therefore, this
2. Literature review paper firstly elaborated the interaction mechanism between natural gas
consumption and economic growth, and then introduced the quantile
Researches on the relationship between natural gas consump-tion and regression method combining the quantile regression with the panel model to
economic growth has emerged recently. Shahbaz et al. (2014) established an analyze the relationship among the variables at different quan-tiles of the
autoregressive distribution lag model includ-ing labor inputs, natural gas dependent variable, which could be more reliable to analyze these dynamic
consumption and other multivariate variables, proved that natural gas connections at different economy level.
consumption did affect economic growth (Shahbaz et al., 2014). In the long
term, Ozturk and Al-Mulali (2015) furtherly pointed out the existence of two-
way causal relationship between the natural gas consumption and economic 3. Descriptive analysis of the relationship
growth (Ozturk and Al-Mulali, 2015. Furuoka (2016) expanded the scope of
research and concluded that there is a one-way causal rela-tionship between In the past decade, natural gas consumption and economic development
natural gas and economic growth in China, while Japan has a two-way causal have maintained a steady and rapid growth, as shown in Fig. 1.
relationship (Furuoka, 2016). Based on the neoclassical economic growth
model, Balitskiy et al. (2016) selected panel data from 26 countries in EU Fig. 1 shows that natural gas consumption and economic growth have a
from 1997 to 2011 and studyed the relationship between energy efficiency, certain degree of synchronization. According to the fluctu-ation trend of
natural gas consumption and economic growth (Balitskiy et al., 2016). Lee growth rate, it’s divided into two phases: The first phase is the period of
and Chang, (2018), (Lee and Chang, 2018), Narayan et al. (2007), (Narayan sustained high growth, from 2000 to 2007, the average annual growth rate of
et al., 2007) and Bartleet and Gounder, (2010), (Bartleet and Gounder, 2010) natural gas consumption is 16.26%, and the average annual growth rate of
also studied the relationship between them. economic growth is 10.5%. The second phase is the period from 2008 to 2014
when natu-ral gas consumption and economic growth are gradually slowing
down. Affected by the financial crisis, the economic growth rate dropped to
In domestic related research, Jun (2015) established the error correction 7%; natural gas consumption growth rate also showed a downward trend,
model using natural gas consumption index, coal con-sumption index and although a slight rebound in 2011, but natural gas consumption growth rate in
economic growth index, proved the long-term equilibrium between coal and 2014 fell to its lowest point in 10 years. Therefore, it’s reasonable to conclude
natural gas consumption with eco-nomic growth (Jun, 2015). Xuna and that there is a syner-gistic relationship between natural gas consumption and
Chuanbo (2010) based on the analysis of the eight major economic regions in economic growth in China.
China, held that the impact of energy consumption on economic growth is
different due to the differences in economy (Xuna and Chuanbo, 2010). ¨
Muqiang (2013) analyzed the relationship between energy consumption and In China, the development model of investment-driven and
¨
economic growth using the time series data of ASEAN from 1997 to 2007, industrial-firsthas caused irrational energy structure and increas-ingly serious
and proved energy consumption is the Granger cause of economic growth environmental problems. Natural gas has become the best choice for
(Muqiang, 2013). More specifically, Li, (2012) verified the existence of a improving energy consumption structure due to its advantages of pollution-
cointegration relationship between the two based on the data from 1949 to free, abundant supply and mature technol-ogy. Which is of great significance
2010 in the United States (Li, 2012). An-bing (2013) verified the to the development of economy.
cointegration relationship between natural gas consumption and economic
growth in China from 1991 to 2011 by using the cointegration theory and the 4. The transmission mechanism of natural gas
error correction model, and concluded that the consumption of natural gas in consumption on economic growth
China is a Granger cause of economic growth (An-bing, 2013).
This paper argues that the impact of natural gas consumption on economic
growth mainly in the following two aspects: price economy and structural
From literature researches, to study the relationship between natural gas adjustment, as has shown in Fig. 2. Consid-ering the property of natural gas,
consumption and economic growth, most scholar mainly focus on empirical the consumption of which could play a significant role in economic growth.
results using empirical model and data, and hold that natural gas consumption As the energy input fac-tors in micro-level, the price of natural gas will
has significant influence on facilitating economic growth and natural gas directly change the consumption and production of all industry, especially for
consumption is a Granger cause of economic growth, lacking of the the secondary industry most of which are energy-intensive industry.
illustrations
336 Z.-G. Li et al. / Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 49 (2019) 334–339
As industrial materials of factory and the commodity of house-hold, dure to decrease carbon emissions and other pollutants. In the end, the
especially the price and access compared to other alternative energy, the industry production and economic structure will change by the transmission
promotion and utilization of natural gas could change the way people live and among industries, thus affecting economic growth all over the country.
produce. Furtherly, the development of nat-ural gas industry could change the
energy structure and industry structure, and then transferring to whole
economy.
5. Model building and data processing
Compared with oil and coal, natural gas is disadvantageous in price. Once Based on the neoclassical economic growth theory, the expanded C–D
the price of oil and coal has fallen, the production cost will directly increase ˛ ˇ
production function Y = AK L E (Zhaoning and Deshun, 2004) were
for those energy enterprises using nat-ural gas, which in turn will have a
introduced. In addition, this paper mainly selects the data of 30 provinces and
negative effect on economic growth. What’s more, with the privilege of
cities in China from 2000 to 2014 (excluding Tibet, Taiwan, Hong Kong and
mining and producing, the monopoly firms take a strong control of the
Macao). All the data are from China Statistical Yearbook, China Energy
production and con-sumption of natural gas market in China. If their
Statistical Year-book and Wande Database. Some missing data has been
monopoly profits can be reduced to make up for such price disadvantages, it estimated. In addition, the capital stock were adjusted with the constant price
will greatly facilitate the industrial input and the daily consumption of natural of 2000 to eliminate the impact of price. Taking the gross domes-tic product
gas and optimize the energy structure with positive eco-nomic and social (GDP), investment in fixed assets (K), gas consumption (GAS) and
effects. In addition, the government subsidies to promote the natural gas employment (L) as research variables, Stata13.0 was used to complete
greatly affect the government revenue and expenditure, further affecting the empirical analysis.
ability to balance economy and market improvement.
In addition, in order to ensure the comparability of data and eliminate the
influence of heteroscedasticity, logarithmic transfor-mation are taken on all
variables:
4.2. Structural adjustment
ln y = ln a + ˛ ln k + ˇ ln l + ln e (1)
As has known to us all, policies and measures will greatly orien-tate the
Where y represents the gross domestic product (GDP), k repre-sents
capital investment and the demand and supply on market, the development of
investment in fixed assets, l represents employment amount and e represents
natural gas faces the same cases. The encour-agement and support from
natural gas consumption.
government will directly and rapidly increase natural gas production, besides
the related services and technologies, which have a positive effect on the
overall economy. On the other side, with the popularization of natural gas, the 5.2. Panel data test
invest-ment and demand for fossil fuels will be reduced leading to the
production reduction in such industries, furthermore the transition of energy For the panel data, only the stationary panel can make the empir-ical
structure which will have a negative effect on the econ-omy in short term. In analysis effective, in order to avoid the pseudo regression and ensure the
case of bankruptcy, these fossil fuel-intensive industries will devoted to stationary of panel data, unit root test is necessary to car-ried out. In this
convert energy utilization and proce- paper, the LLC, Breintung and Fisher-ADF methods are selected, the test
results are shown in Table 1:
Table 1
Unit Root Test Result.
Table 2 uals (Jianping and Wanchuang, 2012). This paper also select this method here,
Panel Cointegration Test Result.
and the fixed effect panel data model are as follows:
Test Method Statistic The Value of Statistic P-Value
important one is to eliminate the effect of fixed effects of individ- According to the standard of the efficiency coefficient range phase
(60,100), all the data are divided into three stages: high
Table 4
Panel Quantile Parameters Estimation Result.
Quantile
Var
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
LNk 0.5169 0.5183 0.5200 0.5243 0.5352 0.5308 0.5339 0.5390 0.5452
LNl 0.5298 0.5274 0.5156 0.4995 0.4908 0.4970 0.4975 0.4944 0.4850
LNgas 0.0341 0.0369 0.0388 0.0401 0.0392 0.0404 0.0406 0.0396 0.0418
Table 5 distribution, government could relax quota limit gradually to create fair
Standard of Economic Scale.
market competition through the diversification of investment entities. To
Economic scale GDP dimensionless value break the high monopoly in exploration and produc-tion and pipeline
90 ≤ Git ≤ 100
transportation, the implementation of the third party access mechanism is
High level
medium 80 ≤ Git < 90 necessary to develop gradually mature competitive environment in the
Low level 60 ≤ Git < 80 industry.
Secondly, the natural gas industry should improve the pricing mechanism
to ensure the main position of market. Price reform is the only way to reform
Table 6
Panel Model Parameter Estimation Result. natural gas market; natural gas price must be able to reflect the relationships
of market resources, supply and demand, substitution and other aspects, as
Economic scale LNgdp Coef. Std. Err. t-Statistic P>|t|
well as the target user, user affordability and many other factors. What’s
Low level LNk 0.551276 0.017715 31.11912 0.0000 important is the flexible pricing mechanism should set up and change with the
LNl 0.362092 0.114523 3.161737 0.0020 mar-ket demand and supply meaning the government should no longer
LNgas 0.023105 0.013396 1.724807 0.0871
R-sq = 0.9912 C 1.058809 0.717220 1.476268 0.1424
intervene (Li et al., 2018b). The transparent, orderly and competi-tive natural
Medium LNk 0.538686 0.014983 35.95414 0.0000 gas market allowing the market itself to determine the operating price.
LNl 0.405475 0.072888 5.563011 0.0000
LNgas 0.033294 0.010591 3.143597 0.0019
R-sq = 0.9600 C 1.091584 0.526228 2.074356 0.0394
High level LNk 0.618716 0.022345 27.68942 0.0000
LNl 0.225363 0.091245 2.469877 0.0159
LNgas 0.050610 0.010702 4.728954 0.0000 6.2. Promoting the construction and management of pipeline
R-sq = 0.9846 C 1.940865 0.720821 2.692574 0.0088 transportation
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