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Sustainable Transport Fuels

For The Future


Long term energy supply and demand
Future Transport Fuels

Gautam Kalghatgi
Shell Global Solutions, U.K.
H-E Ångström Oct 09 KTH
What shapes energy demand
Th e co n t r ib u t o r s

By 2 0 5 0

• d em o g r a p h y : 8 -1 0 b illio n p eo p le

• in co m es: a v er a g e $ 1 5 -2 5 k / ca p it a

• u r b a n isa t io n : 8 0 % liv in g in cit ies

• lib er a li sa t io n : m a r k et s in cr ea se p o ssi b il it ies

• d em a n d (2 -3 t im es in cr ea se)
Shell International Ltd.

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World population outlook

Source IEA.ORG 3
Climbing the energy ladder
GJ/ ca p ita
• +$25k/ capita:
350
little extra energy
300 US needed.
Australia • +$15k/ capita:
250
services start to
200 dominate growth.
EU • +$10k/ capita:
150 industrialisation
Korea
Japan near complete.
100
China
Mexico • +$5k/ capita:
50 India Brazil industrialisation and
Thailand mobility take off.
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
GDP/ ca p ita (‘ 0 0 0 1 9 9 7 $ PPP)
Source: IMF, BP Shell International Ltd.

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Energy Sources

5
Renewables enough to cover the need, but expensive
GJ per ca pita
1000

800

600

400 Hydro
Wind

Demand 200 Solar


Range Geothermal
Biomass
0
ca t

ia
fri as
ica

l
ica

pe

As

ta
FS

ric

.A E
er

To
ro
er

N le
Af
m

Am

Eu

& idd
.A

M
S.
N

Source:adapted from UN 2000, WEC 1994, and ABB 1998.


Figures based on 10 billion people. Shell International Ltd.
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Transport Fuels
• Primarily liquid fuels.
• Primarily made from crude oil in refineries.
• Why liquid fuels ?
• High energy density – Gasoline ~ 32 MJ/litre, Diesel
~36 MJ/litre
• Easy transport, storage and handling
• Extensive distribution network

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The 21st Century - Further Growth projected in
Motorization
Billions of light duty vehicles

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World transport oil demand 2004-2030

Production capacity might not keep up with demand 2105


Source IEA.ORG
9
Proven oil reserves end of 2005

Source IEA.ORG

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Vehicle Technology Trends
• Driven by need to control local and, increasingly,
greenhouse gas emissions (e.g. in EU 130g/km by 2012).
• In the developing world rapid growth coupled with older
vehicles and poorer maintenance could make local air
quality more important
• Increasing engine efficiency while maintaining/reducing
engine emissions. Cars with big engines easier to sell,
political measures to influence customer choise.
• Dieselisation but clean diesels…… Improved exhaust
treatment technology … Hybrid engines …Plug in hybrids
... Direct injection gasoline engines …. Downsizing with
turbocharging … Homogeneous Charge Compression
Ignition (HCCI) engines … Battery cars
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Bio-Fuels (made from plant material)
• Sugar, starch, vegetable oils, residues to ethanol, bio-
esters, bio-diesel ….
• Import substitution/self reliance/security of supply
• Use for agricultural surpluses
• Bio-waste management
• Greenhouse gas credit – “Sun” fuels
• Current costs are 2-4 times conventional fuels
• Availability will be limited ~5-10 % of total transport needs
because of competition for land use with food crops (source
iea.org)

• Energy efficiency of production will improve, second


generation bio-fuels from Cellulose feed stocks
• Ethanol – 275 litres/ tonne of dry plant material.
• Biomass from alga, big long term potential 12
EU Directive on Bio Fuels
• Member states to ensure 2% of transport fuel (by energy)
from bio-fuels by 2005 (the Swedish proportion 2008 was
4.9%), increasing by 0.75% per year to 5.75% in 2010.
• From 2009/2010, propose mandatory 1/1.75 % biofuel
blending in gasoline and diesel.
• Biofuels comprise; bioethanol, biodiesel, biogas,
biomethanol, bio-DME and bio-oil (Pyrolysis). Biodiesel is
transestrefication of vegetable oils, FAME, fat methyl ester,
RME, rapseed methyl ester

• Biofuels can be pure, blends, or derived products such as


ETBE. Sweden, 5% ethanol in gasoline 2005, 5% FAME in
diesel 2006, E85 pumps for flexfuel vehicles, EU proposal
to allow 10% ethanol as many US states
• Separate proposal to allow tax reductions for biofuels. 13
Biofuel share road fuel consumption 2004 and onwards

Source IEA.ORG

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World ethanol and biodiesel production

Ethanol is dominating Biodiesel, most in Europe

Source IEA.ORG 15
LPG, LNG, CNG, DME
• Gases at normal temperature – require new infrastructure
for transport and storage. LPG = propane butane blend
(Liquid Petrolium Gas), LNG = liquid natural gas,
CNG = compressed natural gas, DME = dimethyl ether
• Significantly cleaner than conventional diesel for NOx,
particulates. Lower CO2.
• Biogas is interchangeable with CNG and almost identical
• Potential as niche fuels, especially where urban air quality
is problematicinteresting for this particular project

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Natural gas usage, 15% of reserve used 2007

Source IEA.ORG
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Gas to Liquid (GTL) Fuels
• Make sense in the current environment if there is
“stranded” gas. But there might be other scenarios in the
future.
• Could also be made from biogas but significant challenges.
• Extremely high quality diesel product – 75-80 Cetane, zero
sulphur and aromatics, odourless, colourless, non-toxic,
biodegradable
• Emissions benefit, for pure and blended product, well
established for existing engine technology.
• Sustainability – clear benefits over conventional diesel in
NOx and SO2.
• Big planned projects have the capacity to produce ~15
million tonnes of GTL Gasoil annually (about 4-5% of world
road diesel demand by 2015) 18
Hydrogen as a Transport Fuel – no CO2?
• Not an energy source but an energy carrier. Production is
energy intensive.
• Production from natural gas or coal , produces CO2
• Electrolysis of water using electricity from renewable (at
the moment < 0.5% of total energy use) or nuclear (waste
disposal, proliferation issues).
• Why convert electricity to H2? Big losses and cost.
• Much greater reduction in CO2 if renewable energy is used
to replace coal-generated electricity.
• Hydrogen production must use CO2-free primary energy to
make sense

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Hydrogen - Transport and Storage
• Volumetric energy content ~ 3200 times lower than liquid
fuels at room temperature/pressure -
• Compression (~ 25% energy lost)
• Liquefaction (~40% of energy lost).
• Storage in hydrides and carbon nanotubes not fully
developed, currently not very efficient – exothermic (up to
30% energy loss) .
• Extensive infrastructure investment needed for distribution.
Costs ~15x of liquid hydrocarbons, 4x natural gas (IEA).
Liquid H2 transport too risky.
• Significant safety issues, tunnels, garages, old vehicles

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CO2 sources 1980-2030, transport 20% of CO2

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World electricity energy sources, 66% fossil

Alternative scenario has 12% less electricity demand


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Electricity generation in selected countries, CO2 and nuclear

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Conclusions
• Over the next 30 years 85% of transport needs will still be
met by conventional fuels (fossil fuel derived) - they will
have to adapt to or enable changes in engine technology
e.g. lower sulphur…
• Bio fuels – bio-ethanol, bio-GTL… will become increasingly
important, but limited because of limited land resources.
• Cleaner hydrocarbon fuels such as GTL, LPG and CNG
will all find their niches and play their role.
• Hydrogen has to overcome formidable hurdles to become
a viable transport fuel.
• Bio-fuels and GTL will be limited in supply and are best
used (economic reasons) as blending components rather
than as pure fuels.
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