Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
Gautam Kalghatgi
Shell Global Solutions, U.K.
H-E Ångström Oct 09 KTH
What shapes energy demand
Th e co n t r ib u t o r s
By 2 0 5 0
• d em o g r a p h y : 8 -1 0 b illio n p eo p le
• in co m es: a v er a g e $ 1 5 -2 5 k / ca p it a
• d em a n d (2 -3 t im es in cr ea se)
Shell International Ltd.
2
World population outlook
Source IEA.ORG 3
Climbing the energy ladder
GJ/ ca p ita
• +$25k/ capita:
350
little extra energy
300 US needed.
Australia • +$15k/ capita:
250
services start to
200 dominate growth.
EU • +$10k/ capita:
150 industrialisation
Korea
Japan near complete.
100
China
Mexico • +$5k/ capita:
50 India Brazil industrialisation and
Thailand mobility take off.
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
GDP/ ca p ita (‘ 0 0 0 1 9 9 7 $ PPP)
Source: IMF, BP Shell International Ltd.
4
Energy Sources
5
Renewables enough to cover the need, but expensive
GJ per ca pita
1000
800
600
400 Hydro
Wind
ia
fri as
ica
l
ica
pe
As
ta
FS
ric
.A E
er
To
ro
er
N le
Af
m
Am
Eu
& idd
.A
M
S.
N
7
The 21st Century - Further Growth projected in
Motorization
Billions of light duty vehicles
8
World transport oil demand 2004-2030
Source IEA.ORG
10
Vehicle Technology Trends
• Driven by need to control local and, increasingly,
greenhouse gas emissions (e.g. in EU 130g/km by 2012).
• In the developing world rapid growth coupled with older
vehicles and poorer maintenance could make local air
quality more important
• Increasing engine efficiency while maintaining/reducing
engine emissions. Cars with big engines easier to sell,
political measures to influence customer choise.
• Dieselisation but clean diesels…… Improved exhaust
treatment technology … Hybrid engines …Plug in hybrids
... Direct injection gasoline engines …. Downsizing with
turbocharging … Homogeneous Charge Compression
Ignition (HCCI) engines … Battery cars
11
Bio-Fuels (made from plant material)
• Sugar, starch, vegetable oils, residues to ethanol, bio-
esters, bio-diesel ….
• Import substitution/self reliance/security of supply
• Use for agricultural surpluses
• Bio-waste management
• Greenhouse gas credit – “Sun” fuels
• Current costs are 2-4 times conventional fuels
• Availability will be limited ~5-10 % of total transport needs
because of competition for land use with food crops (source
iea.org)
Source IEA.ORG
14
World ethanol and biodiesel production
Source IEA.ORG 15
LPG, LNG, CNG, DME
• Gases at normal temperature – require new infrastructure
for transport and storage. LPG = propane butane blend
(Liquid Petrolium Gas), LNG = liquid natural gas,
CNG = compressed natural gas, DME = dimethyl ether
• Significantly cleaner than conventional diesel for NOx,
particulates. Lower CO2.
• Biogas is interchangeable with CNG and almost identical
• Potential as niche fuels, especially where urban air quality
is problematicinteresting for this particular project
16
Natural gas usage, 15% of reserve used 2007
Source IEA.ORG
17
Gas to Liquid (GTL) Fuels
• Make sense in the current environment if there is
“stranded” gas. But there might be other scenarios in the
future.
• Could also be made from biogas but significant challenges.
• Extremely high quality diesel product – 75-80 Cetane, zero
sulphur and aromatics, odourless, colourless, non-toxic,
biodegradable
• Emissions benefit, for pure and blended product, well
established for existing engine technology.
• Sustainability – clear benefits over conventional diesel in
NOx and SO2.
• Big planned projects have the capacity to produce ~15
million tonnes of GTL Gasoil annually (about 4-5% of world
road diesel demand by 2015) 18
Hydrogen as a Transport Fuel – no CO2?
• Not an energy source but an energy carrier. Production is
energy intensive.
• Production from natural gas or coal , produces CO2
• Electrolysis of water using electricity from renewable (at
the moment < 0.5% of total energy use) or nuclear (waste
disposal, proliferation issues).
• Why convert electricity to H2? Big losses and cost.
• Much greater reduction in CO2 if renewable energy is used
to replace coal-generated electricity.
• Hydrogen production must use CO2-free primary energy to
make sense
19
Hydrogen - Transport and Storage
• Volumetric energy content ~ 3200 times lower than liquid
fuels at room temperature/pressure -
• Compression (~ 25% energy lost)
• Liquefaction (~40% of energy lost).
• Storage in hydrides and carbon nanotubes not fully
developed, currently not very efficient – exothermic (up to
30% energy loss) .
• Extensive infrastructure investment needed for distribution.
Costs ~15x of liquid hydrocarbons, 4x natural gas (IEA).
Liquid H2 transport too risky.
• Significant safety issues, tunnels, garages, old vehicles
20
CO2 sources 1980-2030, transport 20% of CO2
21
World electricity energy sources, 66% fossil
23
Conclusions
• Over the next 30 years 85% of transport needs will still be
met by conventional fuels (fossil fuel derived) - they will
have to adapt to or enable changes in engine technology
e.g. lower sulphur…
• Bio fuels – bio-ethanol, bio-GTL… will become increasingly
important, but limited because of limited land resources.
• Cleaner hydrocarbon fuels such as GTL, LPG and CNG
will all find their niches and play their role.
• Hydrogen has to overcome formidable hurdles to become
a viable transport fuel.
• Bio-fuels and GTL will be limited in supply and are best
used (economic reasons) as blending components rather
than as pure fuels.
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