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Development Indicators
Frameworks
1. Economic a. GDP of the district as a proxy for cities GDP
b. Work Participation Rate of the city
c. Road density in the city
2. Social a. Education - Number of Colleges and secondary schools per lakh population
in the city
b. Health – Number of beds per ten thousand population in the city
3. Cultural a. Number of recreational facilities available in city per lakh population
Population(P) Number Degree of Color code Urbanization was measured through the
of cities Urbanization population figures of 2011 census. Data
0.1 m < P < 1 m 15 Low Green from 33 cities have been studied under
1m<P<3m 10 Medium Blue different indicators of development and
P>3m 8 High Red urbanization.
Table 2nd: Categorization of cities
Cities have been clubbed under degree of urbanization in three categories – Low, Medium and
High – as per their population, as shown in table 2nd.
constitute more than 75% of national GDP. Thus it is important to understand upto how much
extent urbanization has resulted in increase in GDP in cities.
We have taken average GDP growth rate of districts during 2008-09 and 2009-10 as a proxy for
cities GDP (graph 3rd), as within the district it is the city which drives the economy. As per our
analysis, there is a positive but weak co-relation between urbanization and cities economic
growth rate. In case of high urban cities, the linear trend suggest an increase in GDP growth
rate with increasing urbanization. This is somewhat expected from the high urbanized cities like
Graph 3: GDP growth rate vs urbanization Grpah 4 - Variation of WPR with levels of
Source – Author urbanization. Source- Author
28 45
26 43
24 41
GDP* growth rate
22 39
WPR 2011
20 37
18 35
33
16
31
14
29
12
27
10
0 10 20 30 25
Levels of Urbanization 0 10 20 30
Levels of Urbanization
GDP linear trend across all cities (R² = 0.0407)
Variation across all cities (R² = 0.2464)
GDP linear trend in LUCs (R² = 0.0948)
Variation in LUCs (R² = 0.0011)
GDP linear trend in MUCs (R² = 0.01) Variation in MUCs (R² = 0.0004)
GDP linear trend in HUCs (R² = 0.2052) Variation in HUCs (R² = 0.1334)
Bengaluru, Mumbai and Pune. In case of low urban cities results are a bit shocking as
with increasing urbanization levels, GDP growth rate has declined. In medium urban cities the
trend is not very clear but here also it appears that urbanization and GDP growth rate shares a
weak positive relation.
How one does explains these trends? Globally, urbanization is considered to be the accelerator
of economic growth rate (Bertinelli, Black 2004). But in case of India, there appears to be a
cutoff level of urbanization after which only we see improving GDP growth rate. This suggest
that India has still to overcome the threshold urbanization level. Only after that minimum level of
urbanization we will see a positive impact of urbanization on GDP growth rate. Similar kind of
argument has been given by Henderson [9], by stating that degree of urban concentration has
an impact on economic growth, with too much or too little urban concentration having a
relatively negative impact on growth.
Another indicator to show economic development is Work Participation Rate (WPR). As per
India Census reports, WPR refers to the percentage of people working as household industry
laborers, agricultural laborers, cultivators and other workers. It includes both main and marginal
workers. WPR is nothing but the ratio of working people to total population. With the growing
demographic dividend across India, it is expected that a city with more population will have
more WPR as the percentage of working people there will also be more, provided there are
enough job opportunities in that city.
We have analyzed the WPR with the urbanization levels (graph 4th). It appears that the impact
of increasing urbanization in low urban cities has not impacted WPR in any direct manner. The
trendline shows WPR to be constant with the increasing urbanization. Same goes for medium
urban cities. Only in case of high urban cities we find increasing urbanization to be positively
correlated with WPR. This brings us back to the phenomenon of threshold urbanization as was
seen in the case of GDP growth rate. Till the time urbanization doesn’t crosses a critical level,
WPR seems to remain unaffected by it.
Graph 5 – Variation of Road density with
Population density. Source – Author
Another important indicator associated with
35 economic development is infrastructure. Here
we have used road density to understand
30 relation of road infrastructure with urbanization
(graph 5th). In low urban cities, road density
25
has a healthy positive relation with the
Road density
15 6
10 4
5 2
0
0
0 10 20 30
0 10 20 30
Level of Urbanization Level of Urbanization
Variation across all cities (R² = 0.0162) Average variation across all cities (R² = 0.1198)
Variation across LUCs (R² = 0.0604) Variation across LUCs (R² = 0.0073)
Variation across MUCs (R² = 0.079) Variation across MUCs (R² = 0.2962)
Variation across HUCs (R² = 0.1113) Variation across HUCs (R² = 0.4754)
Here we have used health and education, the two most commonly studied development
indicators to understand what impact urbanization has created on them.
The health indicator has been studied through number of beds in hospitals per ten thousand
population (graph 6th). This is a very crucial indicator as it signifies not only the physical
infrastructure of hospitals but also their quality of health service. In Why Poor People Stay Poor:
Urban Bias in World Development, Michael Lipton (1977) points out that the development
schemes of governments, and international bodies working in developing countries, have a
conspicuous ‘urban bias’. The graph below depicts that in both low urban and high urban cities,
there is a weak negative co-relation between the urbanization levels and number of hospital
beds. Thus contradicting the notion of urban bias theorist. In medium urban cities the trend
appears positive. However since the obtained values of R^2 are very less we cannot predict
anything based this linear regression. But one thing which can be inferred is that urbanization
doesn’t always result in improved health services.
Within education, we have analyzed number of colleges per lakh population. Here colleges
includes those institutions providing bachelor degrees in Arts/Science/Commerce, Engineering
and management. Graph 7th shows that overall increasing levels of urbanization has a negative
correlation with number of colleges per lakh population. In medium urban cities there is increase
in number of colleges per lakh population with increasing urbanization levels. But in low urban
and high urban cities, the trend is negative. This again strengthens the argument that
urbanization doesn’t directly leads to good education facilities.
The degree of correlation of urbanization with social development varies from being negative to
positive to again negative. Suggesting that the medium urban cities have maximum to gain from
urbanization.
4. Impact of Urbanization on Cultural development
In order to broader our understanding
Graph 8 – Impact of urbanization on recreational
of development we have included the
Recreational places* per lakh population
1. GDP - + + +
3. Road density + + + +
6. Policy recommendations
i) Economic development – Low urban cities having population less than 1 million should be
provided with enough job opportunities so as to enhance their growth as well as to reduce the
out migration to high urban cities. Industrial development along the periphery of these low urban
cities should be done. In this regard rather than following growth model of any high urban city,
focus should be given on utilizing the comparative advantage that a city has over other cities.
Physical infrastructure need to be upgraded to reduce the commuting time in the medium and
high urban cities like Bangalore. Women centric job should be created in low and medium urban
cities as there work participation rate is very less.
ii) Social development – Investment on hospital infrastructure and educational institutions
should be prioritized. Community centric healthcare model need to be devised which can cater
the medical need of a particular ward/locality. In high urban cities, instead of focusing on just
super specialty hospitals, infrastructure of small hospitals should be upgraded. To enhance the
quality of college education, more such institutions be opened especially related to medical.
High quality educational institutions in low urban cities can act as an incentive for students to
stay in their hometown. This will also bring new startups and various service providers to open
their offices in these areas. Thus it will generate employment and further increase quality of
education. Although institutions like IITs, IIMs have been opened in low urban cities like
Jodhpur, Nagpur etc. but more state funded institutions be built without compromising on quality
education.
iii) Cultural development – A city development should be measured not just by the economic
capital it generate but also by its social capital. To promote sense of belongingness among the
citizens places like community hall, public libraries plays a very important role. Even places like
cinema halls provide an opportunity to people to spend their leisure time and it brings liveliness
in the city. Having community halls makes the lower middle class to celebrate their happy
moments who can’t afford to arrange their get-togethers in hotels. Public libraries are the best
destination for people to read, discuss and participate in any issue affecting their city. All these
places may appear to be of less importance but carry a very deep significance in sustaining the
charm of the city.
iv) Governance – An effective regulation need to be built with respect to management of slums.
In high urban areas like Mumbai sub-urban city, slums need to properly govern. This means that
all basic services like safe water, sanitation, electricity etc. be available to the slum inhabitants.
State government can invest taxpayer’s money in modernizing slums especially their housing
infrastructure. A radical policy approach to eradicate slums should be avoided. Rather the policy
should have a gradual approach to promote in-situ rehabilitate of the slum dwellers. A city can’t
be built on 2 poles – one highly developed and other hugely undeveloped. If practices of good
governance are strictly adhered, slum areas can be brought at par with the other areas of the
city. Another concern is of per capita expenditure done by municipal corporations (MCorp.).
These statutory bodies have the duty to maintain cities basic infrastructure. As they cripple
financially, city governance is bound to suffer. Their income source need to be widen. Their
conventional tax sources such as parking tax, housing tax need to be made robust. Also new
areas of income source need to be adopted like municipal bonds. State finance commission
recommendations should be implemented by the state governments to make the MCorps
financially strong.
7. Conclusion
The paper was aimed to answer two questions. First, does urbanization leads to development?
And second, should urbanization be categorized into different levels rather than studying it as a
whole. We defined urbanization as a process of movement of people from rural areas to urban
areas. And categorized cities into three levels of urbanization based on their population levels.
Secondary data was collected for 33 cities across India for various development indicators.
From the data analysis we have concluded that urbanization is not a substitute of development.
As depicted in table 4th, urbanization has positively impacted some development indicators such
as GDP, WPR, Road density and APCE but also negatively impacting other development
indicators such as number of hospital beds, number of colleges, and number of recreational
facilities. This makes us to advocate that development parameters needs to be broadened to
completely understand the impact of urbanization on it. Economic growth is expected to occur
with urbanization but it need to be accompanied by social and cultural development. If this
doesn’t happen, quality of life in cities will decrease and there might be de-urbanization, forcing
people to shift back to rural areas. Further it will collapse the urban economy. Thus we can say
that urbanization doesn’t lead to development in totality but lack of urbanization can bring under-
development.
Coming to our second question, we found that impact of urbanization on development can’t be
generalized for every city. There is huge disparity in the population levels, from as low as 5
lakhs to as high as 90 lakhs (as per 2011 census). In a low urban city (population less than 10
lakhs) the impact of urbanization on GDP is negative but in case of high urban city (population
more than 30 lakhs), the impact is positive. This shows that increasing urbanization will not
leads to economic growth in every city. Similarly, the APCE of MCorps. increases with
urbanization in low urban cities but it decreases in high urban cities. Which means that the
financial governance in low urban cities is better than in high urban cities.
Finally we would like to conclude by proposing that urban planning should incorporate different
aspects of development and not just economic growth while building an urban plan. As Indian
cities enters into their next level of urbanization they should chart out their own version of
urbanization.
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