DL Course- Post After Action Review

Current DL is:
D-30 - 4 weeks prior to start of Resident Phase

Readings
Military Strategy in the 21st Century: People, Connectivity and Competition
Complexity, Organizational Blinders and the SOCOM Design Way
NSS
NDS
NMS

Webinars/presentations/discussions on strategy, leadership and self-awareness

Debate Shapes Strategic Thought
Self-Awareness: Biases & Misperceptions
SOF Officer in the Strategic Decision Making Process
Basics of 20th Century Organization Theory

Discussion Boards

Paper
Diagnostic assessment of strategic and critical-thinking

Levels of Learning?
Synthesis -
Synthesis involves building a structure or pattern from diverse elements; it also refers to the
act of putting parts together to form a whole. Its characteristics include:
o Production of a unique communication
o Production of a plan, or proposed set of operations
o Derivation of a set of abstract relations
Example: Convert an "unhealthy" recipe for apple pie to a "healthy" recipe by replacing
your choice of ingredients. Explain the health benefits of using the ingredients you chose
vs. the original ones.

Affective Domain
Organizing -
The student can put together different values, information, and ideas, and can accommodate
them within his/her own schema; the student is comparing, relating and elaborating on
what has been learned.

Psychomotor domain

Complex Overt Response -

The skillful performance of motor acts that involve complex movement patterns:
Proficiency is indicated by a quick, accurate, and highly coordinated performance,
requiring a minimum of energy. This category includes performing without hesitation and
automatic performance. For example, players will often utter sounds of satisfaction or
expletives as soon as they hit a tennis ball or throw a football because they can tell by the
feel of the act what the result will produce.
Examples: Maneuvers a car into a tight parallel parking spot. Operates a computer quickly
and accurately. Displays competence while playing the piano.
Key words: assembles, builds, calibrates, constructs, dismantles, displays, fastens, fixes,
grinds, heats, manipulates, measures, mends, mixes, organizes, sketches. (Note: The key
words are the same as in mechanism, but will have adverbs or adjectives that indicate that
the performance is quicker, better, more accurate, etc.)

Adaption -
Skills are well developed and the individual can modify movement patterns to fit special
requirements.
Examples: Responds effectively to unexpected experiences. Modifies instruction to meet
the needs of the learners. Performs a task with a machine that was not originally intended
for that purpose (the machine is not damaged and there is no danger in performing the new
task).
Key words: adapts, alters, changes, rearranges, reorganizes, revises, varies.
Syllabus Development
Concurrent or Sequential build?
Enabling Objectives feed Terminal Objectives
What are the learning objectives of the DL portion?
How do we want it to feed/build a foundation for the Resident Portion?

Potential PE ideas
Strategic Planning in a Complex International
System

An international system is an open and complex

system of systems managed and shaped by states and
many other non-state actors. Each state, and other
actors, behaves either rationally or irrationally in
pursuit of their own national interests. Actors behave
and shape the system based on how they perceive the
system, the tools they use in the system, and how they employ power within the system. All
of these actions affect the international system. International law helps to govern the
“anarchic” system but is based largely on customs and precedents on treaties which
ultimately are premised on the support and enforcement from individual states. States
enter into relations with other states through the international system.

Caucasus Regional Strategy

National Interest
National Security Strategy
How does national interest and National Security Strategy influence
Strategic Planning?
National Power
What are the sources of national power? Many nations have strong
militaries, lots of geography, or economic strength, can they exert
power?

Soft Power vs Hard Power

Instruments of National Power
DIME
National Strategy
 A prudent idea or set of ideas for employing the instruments of national power
in a synchronized and integrated fashion to achieve theater, national and/or
multinational objectives. JP 3-0

Military Strategy
The National Military Strategy (NMS) defines the national military objectives
(ends) how to accomplish these objectives (ways) and addresses the military
capabilities required toe execute the strategy (means). JP 5-0

Operational Art - Operational Design

ENDS-WAYS-MEANS

Apply critical and creative thinking

Complex problems
No obvious solutions
Interdependent problem sets
Requires multi-dimensional approach
Informs planning
Strategic & Operational

Complexity and Strategic Design

Understanding regional History,
Culture, Economic and Geographical
impacts on NDS, NMS and NSS.
PMESII
Impact of Complexity and Strategy on
ENDS-WAYS-MEANS-RISK
assessment
Validity of objectives
Understanding Environment and the
impact on bias and misconception
How does that shape strategic
thought?

Order Effects - Cause and Effect

How do the goals and actions impact the system? What are the
repercussions to action? What are the repercussions of inaction?

What is the difference between observed conditions and desired conditions

and how the complex causal networks are influenced.

Understanding the impact of complexity of the problem.

Tame problems:
 Relatively well-defined and stable problem statement.
Know when the solution is reached
Fit a linear, analytical problem solving process.
Belong to a class of similar problems that can be solved in a similar
manner.
Have solutions that can be tried and abandoned

Wicked problems:
Incomplete, contradictory, and changing requirements.
Solutions often difficult to recognize as such because of complex
interdependencies.
Every implemented “solution” to a wicked problem has
consequences and may cause additional problems.
Cynefin Framework
Understanding the situation for deciding which domain to use for solving
problems.

South Caucasus Region and Iran

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/analysis-why-iran-angered-israel-alliance-azerbaijan

From USSOCOM Strategic Appreciation 2015 – Finding Balance in a Shifting World:

Trans-Regional Challenges and “Conflicts Across and Among”

State actors such as Russia, Iran, and China, and violent non-state actors such as ISIL and
AQ are all exploiting local grievances among populations to advance their own interests.
Their methods routinely violate international norms and challenge regional governments’
capabilities to respond. These actors rely on their ability to build common identities with
sub-sets of disaffected populations and magnify the potential for violence – converting
potential energy to kinetic energy. Other non-state actors have more criminal inclinations
and avoid law enforcement while building their power and influence.
This type of challenge is “trans-regional” – occurring across state boundaries and among
populations. Elements of both internal instability and external exploitation are necessary
for a trans-regional challenge to emerge. Trans-regional challenges may be best thought of
as a situation where an actor, such as a violent extremist organization (VEO), conducts a
distributed and networked approach to unconventional warfare to serially exploit local
grievances in support of its own ends. What may appear as a vast, international threat is in
many cases, a series of local grievances that a trans-regional actor has exploited.

Risk
In today’s hyper-connected world the speed at which strategic risk shifts is much higher;
hyper-connectivity reduces our window of opportunity – while adversaries capitalize on
their networks and leverage local grievances for their own ends. Our focus on countering
 existing threats has restricted our “strategic start point” to a location near the unfolding of
crisis. By then, our ability to influence the situation favorably has been degraded; we
instead face the high-cost proposition of having to focus on controlling what may become
uncontrollable. In this environment, we can do little to prevent the formation of potential
energy in the system, and we have traditionally placed more emphasis on dealing with the
kinetic aspects of violence. We should continue to seek ways to seize opportunities in the
“potential energy” space earlier – before our adversaries are able leverage it into violence
in support of their own interests.
We must also concern ourselves with managing risk in the future. A traditional approach to
risk management is focused on preserving existing value; protecting those things that an
organization wants to keep from loss. Our strategic risk management must also focus on
preserving our ability to create value in the future. As we improve our ability to compete
for influence under these conditions, we must keep an eye toward preparing for the future –
our operations today may bear little resemblance to those we require tomorrow.

DL Framework Proposal:

Terminal Objective:
Develop Foundational understanding of Strategic Planning from the point of view of
a Complex International System.

Enabling Objectives:
Strategic Planning through-
National Interest
National Security Strategy
National Power
National Strategy
Military Strategy
Operational Art - Operational Design
Complexity and Strategic Design
Understanding regional History,
Culture, Economic and Geographical
impacts on NDS, NMS and NSS.
PMESII
Impact of Complexity and Strategy on
ENDS-WAYS-MEANS-RISK
assessment
Validity of objectives
Understanding Environment and the
impact on bias and misconception
Order Effects - Cause and Effect
Understanding the impact of complexity of the problem.

Learning Level & Domain

 Synthesis
Affective Domain
Organizing
Psychomotor domain
Complex Overt Response
Adaption

Program of Instruction
Readings and Self-Paced Lesson which build understanding by providing content
Guided discussion questions to reinforce Synthesis of content
Group projects to with data analysis to force adaption and synthesis of concepts
Multi-phase Planning Practical Exercise which builds upon each phase to bring
together content and concepts based on a complex international environment.

Proposed Practical Exercise

Caucasus Regional Strategy

Understanding the Environment – Potential Threats to the South
Caucasus
Explain the ways in which history, geography, economics and culture influence
the environments in which theater level joint force commanders must operate.

AOI - South Caucasus

Regional players - Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Iran, Russia, Turkey,
NATO, EUCOM, Non-state actors,

Updated Notes from 5/30/19 meeting

Objective: Change the Individual

Leadership
Change the System

Foundational framework/understanding
NS documents
Strategy
Systems
Joint planning

Ability to communicate

How do we build the scenario framework where it can be laid over any region.
North Korea - China - Russia - Japan
Syria - Russia - Turkey - NATO - GCC
Iran - GCC -
 Power and Strategy Quiz with Answers

Instructions to Students: Please complete the short quiz prior to showing up for class. The quiz
questions are drawn from the required readings and videos. Upon completion of the quiz, you will
be able to view your results as well as the answers.

1. (C203RA) A defined territory that contains a permanent population, with a corresponding

government that can enter into relations with others, is a:
A. Country
B. State (Answer)
C. International entity
D. Nation

2. (C203RA) According to the Montevideo Convention, which statement best describes a principle of
a state?
A. The political existence of the state is dependent upon the recognition by other states in the
region.
B. States are not juridically equal. Developed Western states have rights over developing states.
C. The fundamental rights of states are not susceptible to being affected in any manner
whatsoever. (Answer)
D. Territory and population are irrelevant with respect to the state.

3. (C203RA) As described in the readings, which of the following statements pertain to liberalism?
(select all that apply)
A. The form of government matters in explaining international relations. Republican countries
will not go to war with each other. (Answer)
B. States are locked in a struggle for survival and/or power and each state is trying to dominate
all the rest.
C. There is no state of peace, as states cannot rule out the possibility that they may go to war
with another.
D. The best way to achieve peace is through expansion of the number of democratic states.
(Answer)

4. (Nye Video). According to Joseph Nye, soft power has the following advantage(s) over hard
power? (select all that apply)
A. Soft power is not a zero sum- in other words, your gain can be my gain- unlike hard power,
which is normally zero sum. (Answer)
B. Soft power is easily achieved.
C. Soft power’s influence on “whose narrative wins” is greater than hard power’s (Answer)
D. Soft power’s effective use replaces the need for hard power.

5. (C203RB) Which of the following are examples of the economic instrument of power? (select all
that apply)
A. Raids
B. Tariffs (Answer)
 C. Leaflets
D. Competitive contract rules (Answer)

6. (C203RB) Which of the following are examples of the military instrument of power? (select all that
apply)
A. Blockades (Answer)
B. Radio and TV broadcasts
C. Counterinsurgency (Answer)
D. Treaties

7. (C203RC) According to JP 1, the I in DIME represents which of the following? (select all that
apply)
A. The ability to extend influence to non-state actors. (Answer)
B. The principle means of organizing coalitions and alliances.
C. Its use is essential to achieving unity of effort through unified action with interagency
partners and the broader interorganizational community. (Answer)
D. It is coercive in nature.

8. (C203RD) According to JP3-0, what is the definition of strategy? (note: all answers are definitions
of strategy)
A. The employment of the instruments of power to achieve the political objectives of the state in
cooperation or in competition with other actors pursuing their own objectives.
B. The use that is made of force and the threat of force for the ends of policy
C. The skillful formulation, coordination, and application of ends, ways, and means to promote
and defend the national interests
D. A prudent idea or set of ideas for employing the instruments of national power in a
synchronized and integrated fashion to achieve theater, national, and/or multinational
objectives. (Answer)

9. (C203RD) According to Lykke, strategy seeks to minimize risk through the balance of the ends,
ways, and means. True or False? (True)

10. (C203RD) Yarger would argue that, even though you have an “unacceptable” strategy, so long as it
is “feasible” and “suitable” it is still valid. True or False? (False)
Week 1: What is Strategy
National Interest
National Security Strategy
How does national interest and National Security Strategy influence Strategic
Planning?
National Power
What are the sources of national power? Many nations have strong militaries, lots
of geography, or economic strength, can they exert power?

Soft Power vs Hard Power

Instruments of National Power
DIME
National Strategy
A prudent idea or set of ideas for employing the instruments of national power in a
synchronized and integrated fashion to achieve theater, national and/or multinational
objectives. JP 3-0

Military Strategy
The National Military Strategy (NMS) defines the national military objectives (ends) how
to accomplish these objectives (ways) and addresses the military capabilities required toe
execute the strategy (means). JP 5-0

Week 2: Operational Art and Design

Operational Art - Operational Design
ENDS-WAYS-MEANS

Apply critical and creative thinking

Complex problems
No obvious solutions
Interdependent problem sets
Requires multi-dimensional approach
Informs planning
Strategic & Operational

Week 3: Complexity and Strategic Design

Complexity and Strategic Design
Understanding regional History, Culture, Economic and Geographical impacts on NDS,
NMS and NSS.
PMESII
Impact of Complexity and Strategy on ENDS-WAYS-MEANS-RISK assessment
Validity of objectives
 Understanding Environment and the impact on bias and misconception
How does that shape strategic thought?

Order Effects - Cause and Effect

How do the goals and actions impact the system? What are the repercussions to
action? What are the repercussions of inaction?

What is the difference between observed conditions and desired conditions and how
the complex causal networks are influenced.

Understanding the impact of complexity of the problem.

Tame problems:
Relatively well-defined and stable problem statement.
Know when the solution is reached
Fit a linear, analytical problem solving process.
Belong to a class of similar problems that can be solved in a similar manner.
Have solutions that can be tried and abandoned

Wicked problems:
Incomplete, contradictory, and changing requirements.
Solutions often difficult to recognize as such because of complex
interdependencies.
Every implemented “solution” to a wicked problem has consequences and may
cause additional problems.

Week 4: Practical Application

Caucasus Regional Strategy
Understanding the Environment –
Potential Threats to the South Caucasus
Explain the ways in which history,
geography, economics and culture influence
the environments in which theater level joint
force commanders must operate.

AOI - South Caucasus

Regional players - Georgia, Armenia,
Azerbaijan, Iran, Russia, Turkey, NATO,
EUCOM, Non-state actors,
Course Build Framework