MATH 32: Probability and Statistics - Syllabus Fall Semester 2010

Course Goal: This course will help students gain an understanding of elementary probability theory and how
to apply it to analyze statistical problems. It also provides an opportunity for students to see how various
mathematical knowledge and techniques which they have learned in different courses unite together to serve a
common purpose.

Learning objective: Upon successful completion of the course, students should understand

• basic concepts of probability theory including the axioms of probability, independence, and conditional
probability,

• the concept of random variables, properties of common types of random variables, how to identify them
and use them to solve probabilistic problems,
• the evaluation and interpretation of descriptive statistics,
• the idea of constructing statistical models

• basic problems of inferential statistics such as finding the maximum likelihood estimator and, if time per-
mits, constructing confidence intervals.

Learning outcomes: Upon successful completion of the course, students should be able to

1. use set–theoretic notation to describe events and compute probabilities,

2. use basic combinatorial techniques to calculate probabilities,

3. compute and interpret conditional probability,
4. test for independence of events or of random variables,

5. find either the distribution function or the density (mass) function of a given random variable and compute
its expectation and variance,
6. identify the types of random variables involved in a given problem and calculate relevant probabilities,
7. compute probabilities, expectations, covariances, and correlations of jointly distributed random variables,

8. explain practical implications of expectation and variance and how they predict the shapes of distribution
and density (mass) functions of a random variable,
9. find probability information of a random variable which is defined as a function of another or several other
random variables,

10. represent given data graphically and compute descriptive statistics,

11. describe an appropriate statistical model for the given data and compute population parameters using
appropriate estimators,
12. compute the bias of an estimator,

13. construct linear regression models,

14. estimate population parameters using the maximum likelihood estimator and confidence intervals.

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MATH 32: Probability and Statistics - Syllabus Fall Semester 2010

Instructor: Lei, Yue (office: S&E 306, e-mail: ylei2@ucmerced.edu)

Lectures: Lectures concentrate on introducing new concepts and discussing essential aspects of the theory. Ex-
amples are chosen based on their relevance to illustrate the concepts.
Lecture time: MWF 9:00 – 9:50 am in room COB 105.

Discussion sections: Discussion sections will help review concepts introduced in lectures and most importantly
develop skills to solve concrete problems using concepts learned in lecturers. There will be a quiz for most
discussion sections.

Teaching Assistants: Julia Clark (jclark@ucmerced.edu), Steven Hill (shill2@ucmerced.edu)

Section 02D Steve Hill T 6:00 – 7:50 pm, COB 286
Section 03D Steve Hill W 6:00 – 7:50 pm, COB 288
Section 04D Julia Clark R 12:00 – 1:50 pm, COB 286
Section 05D Julia Clark R 3:00 – 4:50 pm, COB 265

Office Hours: Students are welcome to attend any and all office hours and to make appointment to meet the
instructor or any TA through email. The following list of hours is not yet complete.

Monday: 3:00 pm – 4:00 pm (Lei, Yue – S&E 306)

Tuesday: 8:00 pm – 9:00 pm (Steve Hill – AOB 167 or AOB115)
Wednesday: 10:00 am – 12:00 pm (Lei, Yue – S&E 306)
8:00 pm – 9:00 pm (Steve Hill – AOB 167 or AOB115)
Thursday: 10:00 am – 12:00 pm (Julia Clark – 3rd floor of the library)
Friday: 10:00 am – 11:00 am (Lei, Yue – S&E 306)

Textbook: A Modern Introduction to Probability and Statistics, F.M. Dekking et al. You may have free online access
to it from UCM library, or download PDF files of the text, or purchase a hard copy following links from there if
you wish. You need a UCMerced IP address to have free access to the book. If you are working from off campus, please
have your VPN set up and running.

Course webpage: The Math 32 website is part of the UCMCROPS course management system. It is available
automatically to all students enrolled in this class. All important course materials will be posted under RE-
SOURCES on this website, and course related announcements will be made through the email list maintained
by the site as well.

Computer Software: To facilitate the understanding of concepts and methods in probability and statistics, we
are going to incorporate the use of R in this course. You may choose to use Matlab/Octave or anyother softwares,
but the instructor and TAs will provide help for R only.

Homework: Weekly homework assignment is posted on the CROPS website a week in advance and is usu-
ally due at 5pm on Friday in TA’s drop boxes in AOB 117. Late homework will NOT be accepted. To accommo-
date emergency situations, grade from one homework assignment will be dropped. Homework will be graded
on completeness and then in detail for one randomly selected problem. The lowest homework grade will be
dropped when computing your final grade to accommodate emergencies.
You are encouraged to work in groups on homework. However, you must be the sole author of all work turned
in unless specified otherwise by the assignment. You must identify explicitly all individuals with whom you
worked. You must also list explicitly any outside sources employed, including websites.

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MATH 32: Probability and Statistics - Syllabus Fall Semester 2010

Quizzes: Quizzes will be given in the first 15 minutes of most discussion sections. These quizzes will be graded
as if they were exam questions. A list of three potential quiz questions will be posted the week before each quiz.
Each quiz will require students to answer one of the posted questions. It is highly recommended that you work
out solutions to all three potential questions in advance, on your own or in groups. However, no notes will be
allowed during quizzes. Missed quizzes cannot be made up. The lowest grade in the quizzes will be dropped
when computing your final grade to accommodate emergencies.

Exams: There will be two midterms exams and a comprehensive final. The midterm exams will be given during
lectures on Fridays, Oct. 1, and Nov. 5. These will be fifty–minutes in–lecture exams. There will be a three–hour
final exam on Monday, Dec. 13, 8:00-11:00 am.
No calculator, notes, or crib sheets are allowed during the exams, unless announced otherwise ahead of the exam.
There will be no make-up exams or early exams! If you become too sick to take an exam, or have an emergency,
please bring a note to me verifying your circumstances. Your course grade will be determined by the rest of your
course work.
Grade determination: Your letter grade for the course will be based on homework assignments (10%, lowest one
grade dropped), quizzes (20%, lowest one grade dropped), two midterm exams (20% each), and a cumulative
final exam (30%).

Portable electronic devices: All portable electronic devices (e.g., cell phones & blackberry, iphone, pagers, and
etc.) must be turned off and put away during exams and quizzes. A calculator or laptop computer may be used
in lectures and discussion sections, but not during quizzes or exams unless explicitly announced otherwise.

Dropping the course: You may drop this course without paying a fee and without further approval before 5:00
pm, Sep. 21. Dropping the course after this time, but before 5:00 pm, Nov. 1, requires signed approval of the
instructor and the Dean of the School of Natural Sciences. Students may not drop after Nov. 1 at 5:00 pm. Please
see the UC Merced General Catalog for more details.

Extra help: You are encouraged to get extra help whenever you need it. The instructor and TAs all have office
hours and you are welcome to go to ANY of them. Other helpful items are posted on the UCMCROPS page.
You are welcome to send questions to your instructor or TA via e-mail at any time.

Green books: Each student is required to purchase three green or blue books and give them to their discussion
section leader by the second discussion section. These will be distributed for the exams, so please do not write
anything (not even your name) on the front of the blue books. Green books are preferred because they are made
from recycled material.

Special accommodations: If you qualify for accommodations because of a disability, please submit a letter from
Disability Services to the instructor in a timely manner so that your needs may be addressed. Student Affairs
determines accommodations based on documented disabilities.
The instructor will make every effort to accommodate all students who, because of religious obligations, have
conflicts with scheduled exams, assignments, or required attendance. Please speak with the instructor during
the first week of class regarding any potential academic adjustments or accommodations that may arise due to
religious beliefs during this term.