Group 3

1. Jocelyn Halim 23101810054

2. Laksmana Dwi 23101810031
3. Savio Darmento 23101810002
1. A tea set has four cups and saucers with two cups and saucers in
each two different colors. If the cups are placed at random on the
saucers, what is the probability that no cup is on a saucer of the
same color?
Misal ada 2 warna yaitu hitam (2 pasang cups & saucers) dan putih
(2 pasang cups & saucers). Misalkan lagi bahwa saucers sudah
diletakkan dalam posisi tetap, yaitu:
HPHP
Maka cups hanya bisa diletakkan sebagai PHPH karena warna tidak
boleh sama tiap pasang. Maka posisi menjadi:
PHPH
HPHP
Jumlah semua cara untuk meletakkan cups and saucers
menggunakan cara:
4!
= 6 cara
2! 2!

There is only 1 way that no cup is on a saucer of the same

color

𝟏
Therefore, the probability is 𝟔
1. A woman planning her family considers the following schemes on the
assumption that boys and girls are equally likely at each delivery: a. have
three children b. bear children until the first girl is born or until three are
born, whichever is sooner, then stop c. bear children until there is one of
each sex or until there are three , whichever is sooner then stop
a.
BOY BOY
BOY BOY
GIRL GIRL
BOY GIRL
BOY BOY
GIRL GIRL
GIRL GIRL
HP: {(BBB),(BBG),(BGB),(BGG),(GBB),(GBG),(GGB),(GGG)}
b.
BOY
c. BOY
BOY BOY BOY BOY
GIRL GIRL
GIRL BOY GIRL
BOY GIRL GIRL BOY
GIRL
GIRL GIRL
BOY
HP: {(BBB),(BBG),(BG),(G)} HP:
{(BBB),(BBG),(BG),(GB),
(GGG),GGB)}
3. You roll two fair dice. If the sum of the number shown is 7 or
11, you win; if it is 2,3 or 12, you lose. If it is another number j,
you continue to roll two dice until the sum is j or 7. If it is 7,
you lose; if it is j you win. What is the probability that you win?
, .
Peluang 7: (1,6), (2,5),(3,4), (4,3), (5 ,2), (6,1) yaitu atau
-, ,
.
Peluang 11: (5,6),(6,5) yaitu ./

𝟏 𝟏 𝟐
Peluang menang pada lemparan pertama (7 or 11): + =
𝟔 𝟏𝟖 𝟗
. 3 .
Peluang 2: (1,1) = Peluang 3: (2,1),(1,2)= -, Peluang 12: (6,6)=
-, -,
. 3 . .
Peluang kalah pada lemparan pertama: + + =
-, -, -, 5
3 . 3
Peluang game lanjut: 1 - - =
5 5 -
 .
Misal: 4 menjadi j. Peluang 4 menjadi poin lanjut (2,2),(3,1),(1,3)= .3
. . . -
Peluang 7 (kalah): . Peluang game berlanjut: 1 - - =6
, .3 ,
. - . - 2 .
Peluang menang: +( )( )+( ) ( ) + ….
.3 6 .3 6 .3
7
78 . 𝟏 𝟏
S~ = : = Peluang menang dengan 4 (sama dengan 10) = 𝒙 𝟏𝟐
.9 ; - 𝟑

.
Misal: 5 menjadi j. Peluang 5 menjadi poin lanjut (1,4),(2,3),(3,2),(4,1)= 5
. . . .-
Peluang 7 (kalah): . Peluang game berlanjut: 1 - 5 - , = ./
,
. .- . .- 2 .
Peluang menang: + ( )( )+( ) ( ) + ….
5 ./ 5 ./ 5
7
> 3 𝟐 𝟏
S~ = 7: = Peluang menang dengan 5 (sama dengan 9) = 𝒙
.9 7? @ 𝟓 𝟗
Misal: 6 menjadi j.
@
Peluang 6 menjadi poin lanjut (1,5),(2,4),(3,3),(4,2),(5,1) = -,
. @ . 3@
Peluang 7 menjadi poin lanjut: , . Peluang game berlanjut: 1 - - =
-, , -,
@ 3@ @ 3@ 2 @
Peluang menang: -, + ( -, )( -, ) +( ) ( ) + ….
-, -,
B
:C @ 𝟓 𝟓
S~ = 8B = Peluang menang dengan 6 (sama dengan 8) = 𝒙
.9 .. 𝟏𝟏 𝟑𝟔
:C

Total peluang menang:

𝟐 𝟏 𝟏 𝟐 𝟏 𝟓 𝟓
+2( 𝒙 )+( 𝒙 )+( 𝒙 ) = 0.49
𝟗 𝟑 𝟏𝟐 𝟓 𝟗 𝟏𝟏 𝟑𝟔
4. AN INSURER OFFERS A HEALTH PLAN TO THE EMPLOYEES OF A LARGE
COMPANY. AS PART OF THIS PLAN, THE INDIVIDUAL EMPLOYEES MAY CHOOSE
EXACTLY TWO OF THE SUPPLEMENTARY COVERAGES A, B, AND C, OR THEY
MAY CHOOSE NO SUPPLEMENTARY COVERAGE. THE PROPORTIONS OF THE
COMPANY'S EMPLOYEES THAT CHOOSE COVERAGES A, B, AND C
ARE 1⁄4 , 1⁄3 AND 5⁄12 RESPECTIVELY. DETERMINE THE PROBABILITY THAT A
RANDOMLY CHOSEN EMPLOYEE WILL CHOOSE NO SUPPLEMENTARY
COVERAGE.

•0
• 47⁄144
• 1 ⁄2
• 97⁄144
• 7⁄9
• DIAGRAM VENN UNTUK MASALAH SEPERTI INI ADALAH:
A B
• YANG KITA CARI ADALAH: W=1-(X+Y+Z) X
0 0
. . @
1. X+Y= , X+Z= , Y+Z= Y 0 Z
6 - .3
• W 0 C

. . @
2.(X+Y)+(X+Z)+(Y+Z)= + +
6 - .3
.
X+Y+Z=
3

• W=1-(X+Y+Z)=1 - .3 = .3
5. AT A CERTAIN UNIVERSITY, EVERY YEAR EIGHT TO 12 PROFESSORS ARE
GRANTES UNIVERSITY MERIT AWARDS. THIS YEAR AMONG THE
NOMINATED FACULTY ARE DRS.JONES, SMITH, AND BROWN. LET A,B,C
DENOTE THE EVENTS, RESPECTIVELY, THAT THESE PROFESSORS WILL BE
GIVEN AWARDS. IN TERM OF A,B,C, FIND AN EXPRESSION FOR THE EVENT
THAT THE AWARD GOES TO :
a. ONLY DR. JONES
b. AT LEAST ONE OF THE THREE
c. NONE OF THE THREE
d. EXACTLY TWO OF THEM
e. EXACTLY ONE OF THEM
f. DRS. JONES OF SMITH BUT NOT BOTH
A.P(A ∩ BC ∩ CC)
B. P(A ∪ B ∪ C)
C.1-P(A ∪ B ∪ C)
D.P(A ∩ B)+P(A ∩ C)+P(B ∩ C)-3P(A ∩ B ∩ C)
E. P(A)+P(B)+P(C)-2[P(A ∩ B)+P(A ∩ C)+P(B ∩ C)]+3P(A ∩ B ∩
C)
F. P(A)+P(B)-2P(A ∩ B)-P(A ∩ C)-P(B ∩ C)+2P(A ∩ B ∩ C)
Question
6. SOA EXAM
A public health researcher examines the medical records of a group of
937 men who died in 1999 and discovers that 210 of the men died
from causes related to heart disease. Moreover, 312 of the 937 men
had at least one parent who suffered from heart disease, and, of these
312 men, 102 died from causes related to heart disease. Determine the
probability that a man randomly selected from this group died of
causes related to heart disease, given that neither of his parents
suffered from heart disease.
Solution
• P of a man who died from heart disease, given that his
parents never suffered from heart disease.
F(H∩I J )
•
F(I J )
Solution
F(H∩I J )
• F(I J )
3.P9.P3 .P/
•𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵O = =
5-Q 5-Q
,3@
•𝑃 𝐵O = 5-Q
F(H∩I J ) .P/
• F(I J ) = ,3@ = 0.1728 ≈ 0,173
Question
7. An insurance company examines its pool of auto insurance
customers and gathers the following information:
(i) All customers insure at least 1 car
(ii) 70% of all customers insure more than one car
(iii) 20% of the customers insure a sports car
(iv) Of those customers who insure more than one car, 15% insure a
sports car.
What is the probability that a randomly selected customer insures
exactly one car, and that car is not a sports car?
Solution
• P of customer insures exactly one car, car is not a sports car
• 𝑃(𝐴) – insures > 1 – 70%
• 𝑃 𝐵 – insures sports car – 20%
• 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) – insures > 1, sports car – 15% of 70% -> 10.5%
• 𝑃 𝐴O ∩ 𝐵 O = 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)O - insures 1, not sports car
Solution
𝑃 𝐴∪𝐵 =𝑃 𝐴 +𝑃 𝐵 −𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵
𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 70% + 20% − 10.5%
= 79.5%

∴ 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)O = 100% − 79.5% = 20.5%

20.5% = 0.205 ≈ 0.21