UNIT 1: Random Variables and Probability Distribution

BASIC CONCEPTS

■ Probability is the likelihood of occurrence of an event.

■ A probability experiment is an action through which specific results (counts, measurements or
responses) are obtained.
■ The result of a single trial in a probability experiment is the outcome.
■ The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment is the sample space.
■ An event consists of one or more outcomes and is a subset of the sample space.
■ A simple event is one that consists of exactly one outcome.
■ An event is compound if it consists of more than one outcome.
■ Classical (or theoretical) probability is used when each outcome in a sample space is equally likely to
occur. The classical probability for event E is given by:

Number of outcomes in event

P (E )  .
Total number of outcomes in sample space

Example:
Say, our probability experiment is rolling a die and observing the number that is rolled is a probability
experiment. The sample space when rolling a die has six outcomes. Therefore, the sample space is written
as S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Then, say, Event X is rolling an even number. The outcomes of event X are {2, 4, 6}.
This is a compound event because the event has three outcomes. Using the formula given above, the
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probability of event X or simply written as P(X) is equal to .
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Exercise 1: Complete the table below.

Probability Sample Space Number of Event Outcomes Type of Probability
experiment possible of event event of event
outcomes
Rolling a die S = {1, 2, 3 4, 5, 6} 6 Getting an {2, 4, 6} Compound 3
even number 6
Rolling a die S = {1, 2, 3 4, 5, 6} 6 Getting 2 {2} Simple 1
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Tossing a coin S = {H, T} 2 Getting a {H}
head
Tossing two S = {HH, TT, HT, TH} Getting a
coins head and a
tail
Tossing three 8 Getting two
coins tails

Tossing three Getting at

coins least two
tails
RANDOM VARIABLES

A random variable x represents a numerical value associated with each outcome of a probability distribution.
■ A random variable is discrete if it has a finite or countable number of possible outcomes that can be
listed.
■ A random variable is continuous if it has an uncountable number or possible outcomes, represented by
the intervals on a number line.
Examples:
a.) The distance your car travels on a tank of gas
The distance your car travels is a continuous random variable because it is a measurement
that cannot be counted. (All measurements are continuous random variables.)

b.) The number of students in a statistics class

The number of students is a discrete random variable because it can be counted.

A discrete probability distribution lists each possible value the random variable can assume, together with
its probability. A probability distribution must satisfy the following conditions:
1. Each of the probabilities P(x) has a value range from 0 to 1.
2. The sum of the probabilities P(x1) + P(x2) + … + P(xn) = 1.

CONSTRUCTING A DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

1. Determine the sample space.
2. Count the value of the random variable.
3. Assign the probability values to each value of the random variable.
4. Check that each probability is between 0 and 1 and that the sum is 1.

Example: Say, the experiment is tossing two coins. Let the random variable x be the number of heads that
appear when tossing the two coins.

Following the steps above:

1. Determine the sample space. The sample space is: S= {HH, HT, TH, TT}. In total, there are four possible
outcomes of the experiment.

2. Count the value of the random variable. A possible

outcome is 2 heads appearing when the result is HH
(or two heads). Another possible outcome is 1 head
appearing which can be attained in two ways (HT and
TH). One more possible outcome is 0 because when
the result is TT, no head appeared. To verify, we have
the table on the right.
x 2 1 0
3. Assign the probability values to each value of the random variable. P(x) 1 2 1
Shown on the right. 4 4 4

4. Check that each probability is between 0 and 1 and that the sum is 1. Each of the probability ranges
from 0 to 1. The sum of all the probabilities is equal to 1.

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Exercise 2: Say, the experiment is tossing three coins. Let the random variable x be the number of heads that
appear when tossing the three coins.

1. Determine the sample space.

𝑆=
2. Count the value of the random variable.
Possible Values of the Random
Outcomes Variable x (number of heads)
HHH 3

3. Assign the probability values to each value of the random variable.

x 3
P(x) 1
8

4. Check that each probability is between 0 and 1 and that the sum is 1.

Exercise 3: Determine if each of the following is a Discrete Probability Distribution or NOT.

x 1 3 5
1. P(x) 0.12 0.82 0.06

Yes, because 0.12 + 0.82 + 0.06 = 1.

a 4 8 8 10
2. P(a) 0.42 0.11 -0.28 0.06

x 2 1 0
P(x) 1 1 1
3. 4 2 4

c 1 5 9 13 17
4. P(c) 3% 10% 40% 36% 2%

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Exercise 4: Given the Discrete Probability Distribution below, find:
x 1 2 3 4
P(x) 1 3 1 2
7 7 7 7

a. P(3)

b. P(1) + P(4)

1 2 3
+ =
7 7 7

c. P(2) ∙ P(3)

d. P(x>1)

e. P(2<x<4)

f. P(1  x  3)

MEAN OF DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

The expected value of a discrete random variable is equal to the mean of the random variable. As we have
previously discussed in our review in Descriptive Statistics, the mean is a measure of central tendency most
commonly known as average.
Mean = Expected Value = E(x) = Σ (xP(x))

Example 1: What is the mean outcome if a regular Example 2: Given the Discrete Probability
die is rolled? Distribution, determine the mean.
x 1 2 3 4 5 6 z 3 5 7 9
P(x) 1 1 1 1 1 1 P(z) 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.1
6 6 6 6 6 6
Answer:
Answer: E(x) = 3(0.6) + 5(0.1) + 7(0.2) + 9(0.1)
1 1 1 1 1 1
E(x) = 1( ) + 2( ) + 3( ) + 4( ) + 5( ) + 6( )
6 6 6 6 6 6
= 1.8 + 0.5 + 1.4 + 1.8
1 2 3 4 5 6
= + + + + + = 5.5
6 6 6 6 6 6
21
= or 3.5
6

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Exercise 5: Given the Discrete Probability Distribution, determine the mean.

x 1 3 5
1. P(x) 0.12 0.82 0.06

x 2 1 0
P(x) 1 1 1
2. 4 2 4

x 1 2 3 4
P(x) 1 3 1 2
7 7 7 7
3.

VARIANCE OF DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

The variance and standard deviation describe the amount of speed dispersion, or variability if items in a
distribution.
Formula 1 for Variance: V(X) = Σ [x-E(X)] 2 f(x)
Formula 2 Variance: V(X) = E(X2) – [E(X)]2
Formula for Standard Deviation: Sd(X) = √𝐕(𝐱)

Example: Given the discrete probability distribution below, let us compute the variance and standard
deviation.

x 1 2 3 4
P(x) 2 4 8 1
15 15 15 15

Answer: To solve the problem easily, let us complete the table below:
x P(x) x∙P(x) x2 x2∙P(x)
1 2 2 1 2
15 15 15
2 4 8 4 16
15 15 15
3 8 24 9 72
15 15 15
4 1 4 16 16
15 15 15
E(X) = 15 or E(X2) =
38 106
15
2.53 or 7.07

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 Using formula 2, we now have:

V(X) = E(X2) – [E(X)]2

106 38 106 1444
= -( )2 = - = 7.07 – 6.42 = 0.65
15 15 15 225

Sd(X) = √𝐕(𝐱)

= √0.65 = 0.81
Exercise: Determine the variance and standard deviation of the following:

x 1 3 5
1. P(x) 0.12 0.82 0.06

x P(x) x∙P(x) x2 x2∙P(x)

E(X) E(X2)

x 2 1 0
P(x) 1 1 1
2. 4 2 4

x P(x) x∙P(x) x2 x2∙P(x)

E(X) E(X2)

x 1 2 3 4
P(x) 1 3 1 2
7 7 7 7
3.

x P(x) x∙P(x) x2 x2∙P(x)

E(X) E(X2)

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