January 2020 Statewide Survey

MICHIGAN STATEWIDE VOTER SURVEY
WDIV/DETROIT NEWS
600 SAMPLE
JANUARY 8, 2020
Michigan Statewide Survey 1

January 2020
Glengariff Group, Inc.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page Topic
2 Methodology
3 Key Findings
14 Aggregate Survey Results
27 Cross-tabulation Report
METHODOLOGY
The Glengariff Group, Inc. conducted a Michigan statewide survey of November 2020 likely general election voters. The 600
sample, live operator telephone survey was conducted on January 3-7, 2020 and has a margin of error of +/-4.0 percent with a 95
percent level of confidence. 50.0 percent of respondents were contacted via landline telephone. 50.0 percent of respondents were
contacted via cell phone telephone. This survey was commissioned by the Glengariff Group, Inc. as part of our public polling
program and provided to WDIV Local 4 and the Detroit News.

January 2020
KEY FINDINGS
Historic Motivation to Vote Continues Unabated
 The motivation to vote in the 2020 election among Michigan voters continues at 9.5 on a 10.0 point scale. Unchanged from
2019 surveys.
 No demographic groups comes in at a motivation to vote below 9.0.
 The chart below compares motivation to vote by party affiliation dating back to October 2012.
Party Affiliation Oct 12 Oct 14 Oct 16 Oct 18 June 19 Jan 20

Strong Democratic 8.5 7.0 6.7 9.6 9.6 9.7
Lean Democratic 7.4 6.4 4.7 9.5 9.3 9.6
Independent 6.6 5.9 5.6 8.9 9.1 9.1
Lean Republican 8.3 6.2 6.2 9.2 9.5 9.3
Strong Republican 8.4 6.9 6.5 9.5 9.6 9.6
Whitmer Job Approval Takes Slight Drop
 Governor Whitmer’s job approval is 43.3 percent approve to 35.9 percent disapprove. This percentage represents a seven
percent drop from June 2019 when her job approval was 50.7 percent-23.7 percent. [Note: That survey represents figures
directly after passage of the auto no fault legislation.]
 The chart below compares her approval by party affiliation.
Party Affiliation Approve Disapprove

Strong Democratic 66.0 percent 13.4 percent
Lean Democratic 46.9 percent 19.0 percent
Independent 45.3 percent 30.7 percent
Lean Republican 22.4 percent 50.4 percent
Strong Republican 18.6 percent 64.0 percent

January 2020
 Voters in Out State are split on Governor Whitmer’s performance with 39.9 percent approve to 41.7 percent disapprove.
Voters in Metro Detroit approve of the Governor’s performance by a margin of 47.6 percent-31.6 percent. Voters over the age
of 65 approve of the Governor’s performance 48.9 percent-36.1 percent.
Trump Numbers See Minor Improvement [Inside the Margin of Error]
 By a margin of 39.8 percent-51.2 percent, Michigan voters have an unfavorable impression of Donald Trump. These numbers
represent a minor improvement within the margin of error from previous surveys.
Survey Period Favorable Unfavorable

January 2018 34.8 percent 55.8 percent
September 2018 37.0 percent 56.6 percent
October 2018 37.7 percent 56.5 percent
June 2019 36.8 percent 53.7 percent
 By a margin of 47.4 percent-49.0 percent, Michigan voters disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President. This is
a slight improvement from 44.3 percent-52.0 percent in June 2019.
 But while 29.2 percent strongly approve of his performance, 44.0 percent strongly disapprove of his performance. Strong
disapproval of the President’s performance has not shifted over the past three years.
Trump Job Approval

Strongly approve 29.2 percent
Somewhat approve 18.2 percent
Somewhat disapprove 5.2 percent
Strongly disapprove 44.0 percent
 Men approve of President Trump by a margin of 55.2 percent-42.1 percent. But women strongly disapprove of President
Trump by a margin of 40.0 percent-55.8 percent. The improvement in President Trump’s numbers has come from men who
were +4.2 percent in June 2019 and have increased to +13.1 percent in January 2020.

January 2020
 The chart below highlights the extreme differences playing out by gender between Metro Detroit and Out State voters. The
difference at this point is the disapproval of Metro Detroit men.
Region by Gender Trump Approve Trump Disapprove

Out State Men 69.3 percent 30.0 percent
Metro Men 41.9 percent 53.4 percent
Out State women 47.1 percent 47.9 percent
Metro Women 33.3 percent 63.5 percent
 The chart below looks at white men by education level.
White Men by Education Trump Approve Trump Disapprove

Men- High School 78.0 percent 21.9 percent
Men – Some Post 64.4 percent 34.2 percent
Men – College 57.4 percent 39.8 percent
 The chart below looks at white women by education level.
White Women by Educ Trump Approve Trump Disapprove

Women - High School 53.5 percent 40.9 percent
Women – Some Post 60.3 percent 36.9 percent
Women – College 36.6 percent 57.1 percent
Trump Re-Elect Remains Consistent, Signals Incumbent Vulnerability
 Voters were asked if they would vote to re-elect President Trump or vote for someone else. 51.5 percent of voters would vote
to elect someone new with 46.3 percent definitely voting for someone new. 35.5 percent of voters would vote to re-elect
President Trump with 29.0 percent definitely voting to re-elect the President.
 These numbers have remained unchanged since June 2019.

January 2020
 Among Independent voters, 27.3 percent would vote to re-elect the President while 46.2 percent would elect someone new.
16.2 percent would DEFINITELY RE-ELECT the President while 36.8 percent would DEFINITELY VOTE FOR SOMEONE
NEW.
 Incumbent officials with a re-election number under 50 percent are considered vulnerable.
Comparing Donald Trump and John Dingell in Metro Detroit; Dingell Far More Popular
 Respondents were asked their personal opinions of both Donald Trump and former Congressman John Dingell.
 Donald Trump has a favorable/unfavorable in Southeast Michigan of 31 percent-58 percent, underwater by a 27 percent-point
margin.
 John Dingell has a favorable/unfavorable in Southeast Michigan of 39 percent-18 percent, above water by a 21 percent-point
margin
Trump and Top Five Dem Presidential Candidates Have Name Identification Underwater
 The chart below looks at name identification of the top five polling Democratic candidates for President. All five candidates,
along with President Trump have name identification that is underwater. Only Joe Biden has seen a statistically significant
shift in his favorable/ unfavorable moving from 46 percent-37 percent in June 2019 to 34 percent-44 percent in January 2020.
Bernie Sanders now has the most favorable name identification among the Democratic candidates by a narrow margin over Joe
Biden.
Candidate Favorable Unfavorable

Donald Trump 39.8 percent 51.2 percent
Joe Biden 34.0 percent 43.8 percent
Elizabeth Warren 26.3 percent 40.0 percent
Bernie Sanders 39.0 percent 44.7 percent
Pete Buttigieg 22.2 percent 28.5 percent
Mike Bloomberg 16.3 percent 37.5 percent
January 2020
 The chart below compares favorable/unfavorable by Independent voters. Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders have the highest
negatives among Independent voters. Mike Bloomberg (-19), Donald Trump (-14), and Elizabeth Warren (-15) have name
identification furthest underwater with Independent voters.
Independent Voters
Candidate Favorable Unfavorable
Donald Trump 34.2 percent 48.7 percent
Joe Biden 30.8 percent 34.2 percent
Elizabeth Warren 20.5 percent 35.9 percent
Bernie Sanders 34.2 percent 44.4 percent
Pete Buttigieg 29.9 percent 33.3 percent
Mike Bloomberg 15.4 percent 34.2 percent
 The chart below compares name identification among Strong Democratic voters and Leaning Democratic Voters. Biden holds
the highest favorable among Strong Democratic voters while Sanders holds the strongest favorable among Leaning Democratic
voters. Mike Bloomberg has the highest unfavorable among both groups.
Strong Democratic Voters Leaning Democratic Voters

Candidate Favorable Unfavorable Favorable Unfavorable
Joe Biden 62.4 percent 19.6 percent 37.9 percent 19.0 percent
Elizabeth Warren 55.7 percent 9.8 percent 31.0 percent 24.0 percent
Bernie Sanders 73.7 percent 9.3 percent 56.9 percent 19.0 percent
Pete Buttigieg 42.3 percent 13.4 percent 32.8 percent 8.6 percent
Mike Bloomberg 25.8 percent 26.3 percent 13.8 percent 22.4 percent

January 2020
All Five Democrats Hold Narrow Lead: Biden at 6.9 percent and Bloomberg at 6.0 percent Hold Strongest Leads
All five Democratic candidates hold a lead over Donald Trump. Joe Biden holds the widest lead at 6.9 percent. Mike Bloomberg
holds a lead of 6.0 percent.
Bernie Sanders holds a lead just outside of the margin of error at 4.2 percent.
While Warren and Buttigieg hold minor leads, they are both within the survey’s +/-4.0 percent margin of error.
Trump 43.2 percent Biden Lead +6.9 percent

Biden 50.1 percent
Undecided 5.2 percent
Trump 41.2 percent Bloomberg Lead +6.0 percent

Bloomberg 47.2 percent
Trump 44.8 percent Sanders Lead +4.2 percent

Sanders 49.0 percent
Trump 43.2 percent Buttigieg Lead +1.8 percent [Within the Margin of Error]
Buttigieg 45.0 percent
Trump 44.0 percent Warren Lead +1.7 percent [Within the Margin of Error]
Warren 45.7 percent

January 2020
 The chart below compares each race by gender where a significant gap exists between the genders. Biden holds a substantial
lead among women by 22 percent with three other candidates hovering around +17 percent. Trump holds a 9-point lead
among men with Biden and Sanders, but only a 6.7 percent lead among Bloomberg. Trump holds double digit leads among
men with Buttigieg and Warren. Warren appears to be particularly weak among male voters.
Women
Trump 35.3 percent Biden 57.3 percent Biden +22.0 percent
Trump 38.1 percent Sanders 55.2 percent Sanders +17.1 percent
Trump 35.9 percent Warren 53.2 percent Warren +17.3 percent
Trump 36.8 percent Buttigieg 49.7 percent Buttigieg +12.9 percent
Trump 34.6 percent Bloomberg 52.2 percent Bloomberg +17.6 percent
Men
Trump 51.7 percent Biden 42.4 percent Trump +9.3 percent
Trump 52.0 percent Sanders 42.3 percent Trump +9.7 percent
Trump 52.8 percent Warren 37.5 percent Trump +15.3 percent
Trump 50.0 percent Buttigieg 39.9 percent Trump +11.1 percent
Trump 48.3 percent Bloomberg 41.6 percent Trump +6.7 percent
 The chart below compares the race with Independent voters. Biden appears the strongest against President Trump among
independent voters leading by 5.8 percent. Bloomberg is second strongest among Independent voters against President Trump
with a narrow 3.3 percent lead. President Trump is strongest among Independent voters against Elizabeth Warren leading by
5.9 percent.
Independent Head to Head Presidential Contest

Trump 36.8 percent Biden 42.6 percent Undecided 17.1 percent Biden +5.8
percent
Trump 40.2 percent Sanders 41.9 percent Undecided 16.2 percent Sanders +1.7
percent [Margin of Error]
Trump 41.0 percent Warren 35.1 percent Undecided 19.7 percent Trump +5.9
percent

January 2020
Trump 38.4 percent Buttigieg 35.1 percent Undecided 23.1 percent Trump +3.3
percent [Margin of Error]
Trump 34.2 percent Bloomberg 37.6 percent Undecided 24.8 percent Bloomberg
+3.4 percent [Margin of Error]
Type of Town You Live in Overriding Factor in Presidential Race: Biden Best Positioned Against Trump in Rural Areas
 Respondents were asked if they live in an urban area, a suburban area, a small town or a rural area. The type of town a voter
lives in is having an overriding effect on how they will vote in November. All Democratic candidates hold substantial leads in
Urban and Suburban areas. President Trump continues to have major problems in suburban areas.
 But President Trump holds substantial leads in rural areas and a minor lead among voters that live in small towns.
 Biden appears best positioned among all Democratic candidates we tested in holding down President Trump’s margins in rural
areas.
 Voters that live in small towns appear to most closely split among the candidates.
Area Trump/Biden Trump/Sanders Trump/Bloomberg Trump/Warren Trump/Buttigieg

Urban Area: +46.4 percent Biden +43.5 percent Sanders +47.5 percent Bloomberg +37.7 percent Warren +39.6
percent Buttigieg
Suburban Area: +21.5 percent Biden +19.2 percent Sanders +21.1 percent Bloomberg +15.1 percent Warren +14.7
percent Buttigieg
Small Town Area: +7.9 percent Trump +8.6 percent Trump +8.0 Trump +5.1 percent Trump
+8.0 Trump
Rural Area: +33.3 percent Trump +41.0 percent Trump +36.4 Trump +43.4 percent Trump +39.5 percent Trump

January 2020
Voters Hold More Nuanced Position on Ukraine Matter than Impeachment Vs. No Impeachment
 Voters were asked a battery of four questions about President Trump’s actions with the nation of Ukraine.
 By a margin of 49.5 percent-33.5 percent voters say the President’s behavior was inappropriate or wrong as compared
to appropriate.
 By a split margin of 40.7 percent-38.0 percent, voters say the President’s behavior was illegal as compared to legal. 21.3
percent of voters are not sure if his behavior was legal.
 By a margin of 49.7 percent-38.5 percent, voters believe the President’s behavior was not in the best interest of the United
States.
 By a margin of 50.9 percent-43.5 percent, Michigan voters oppose the impeachment and removal from office of Donald Trump
as President.
o In June 2019, Michigan voters opposed impeachment by a margin of 52.8 percent-39.6 percent. There has been a
four-point increase in support for impeachment and a two-point decrease in opposition to impeachment.
o 42.2 percent of voters strongly oppose his impeachment and removal while 35.3 percent strongly support his
impeachment and removal.
How Independent Voters View the Ukraine Issue
 By a margin of 47.9 percent-19.7 percent, Independent voters believe the President’s actions with the Ukraine were
inappropriate and wrong.
 By a margin of 36.8 percent-31.6 percent, Independent voters believe the President’s actions were illegal. 31.6 percent of
Independent voters do not know if they were illegal.
 By a margin of 43.6 percent-35.9 percent, Independent voters believe the President’s actions were not in the interest of the
United States.
January 2020
 By a margin of 49.6 percent-36.8 percent, Independent voters oppose the impeachment and removal from office of President
Trump.
Michigan US Senate Race Appears a Toss Up: Peters Holds Narrow 3.8 percent Lead
 Michigan’s United States Senate Race appears to be a tossup at this stage with Gary Peters holding a narrow lead of 3.8
percent -- which is inside the survey’s margin of error.
 Gary Peters 43.5 percent

 John James 39.7 percent
 Undecided 16.3 percent
 Gary Peters has 69.9 percent name identification breaking 25.5 percent favorable to 21.7 percent unfavorable.
 John James has 59.0 percent name identification breaking 23.5 percent favorable to 15.8 percent unfavorable.
 Among independent voters Peters holds a narrow lead of 32.5 percent-29.0 percent -- or 3.5 percent.
 Peters leads among women by a margin of 50.3 percent-33.6 percent. But James leads among men by a margin of 46.2
percent-36.1 percent.
Conclusion
 Motivation to vote continues at historic levels in Michigan at 9.5. That motivation exists across all demographic groups.
 Governor Whitmer’s job approval has dipped slightly from June 2019 following auto insurance reform but still holds at 43.3
percent approve to 35.9 percent disapprove.
 President Trump’s job approval has seen a minor increase within the survey’s margin of error from previous surveys. But his
re-elect number continues at just 35.5 percent re-elect and 51.5 percent voting for someone new.

January 2020
 A comparison in attitudes toward President Trump and former Congressman John Dingell in Southeast Michigan shows that
while President Trump is viewed unfavorably by a margin of 31 percent-58 percent (-27 percent), John Dingell is viewed
favorably by a margin of 39 percent-18 percent (+21 percent).
 Joe Biden continues to hold a 7- point lead on Donald Trump in Michigan. The second strongest contender is Mike
Bloomberg who holds a 6-point lead. Bernie Sanders holds a lead of 4.2 percent just outside the margin of error. But Pete
Buttgieg and Elizabeth Warren are in a dead heat against Donald Trump in Michigan.
 There continues to be a massive gender gap in Michigan with Biden holding a 22 percent lead among women while Trump
holds a 9 percent lead among men.
 Among Independent voters, Biden holds a 6-point lead on Trump. But Trump holds a 6-point lead among independents
against Warren.
 What type of town you live appears to be a significant factor in your presidential choice. Biden holds a 46 percent lead in
urban areas and a 22 percent lead in suburban areas. But Trump holds an 8 percent lead in small towns and a 33 percent lead
in rural areas. Biden appears to be the best positioned Democratic candidate to narrow Trump’s dominance in his rural
strongholds. The race appears closest among voters that say they live in small towns.
 Voters attitudes on impeachment have experienced a minor shift on impeachment since June 2020 but they are still opposed to
impeachment by a margin of 49.7 percent-38.5 percent. But voter attitudes on the Ukraine issue appear far more nuanced than
just their attitudes on impeachment. Michigan voters believe President Trump’s actions in the Ukraine were wrong and
inappropriate by a 16-point margin. By a narrow 2.7 percent margin, voter believe his action were illegal. And by a wider
11-point margin voters believe his actions were not in the best interest in the United States.
 Michigan’s US Senate race appears to be a dead heat with incumbent Senator Gary Peters leading Republican John James by a
narrow 3.8 percent within the survey’s margin of error. Both candidates have room to grow in terms of statewide name
identification with Peters at 70 percent and James at 59 percent name identification.

January 2020
MICHIGAN STATEWIDE SURVEY
JANUARY 2020
Hello, my name is _________. I’m not selling anything. I’m doing a quick survey of voters’ attitudes in Michigan. It should take
approximately six minutes.
A. Are you registered to vote at the address I am calling?
1. Yes…..CONTINUE 100.0 percent (600)

2. No….TERMINATE
B. This November, Michigan voters will go to the polls to vote in the Presidential election. Would you say are definitely going
to vote, probably going to vote, probably not going to vote, or definitely not going to vote?
1. Definitely going to vote….CONTINUE 87.7 percent (526)

January 2020
2. Probably going to vote….CONTINUE 12.3 percent (74)
3. Probably not going to vote….TERMINATE
4. Definitely not going to vote….TERMINATE
1. And could you tell me in what county you vote in?
1. UP/North 13.0 percent (78)

2. West 11.2 percent (67)
3. Southwest 8.3 percent (50)
4. Mid Michigan 8.7 percent (52)
5. East Central 7.7 percent (46)
6. Oakland 13.2 percent (79)
7. Macomb 8.5 percent (51)
8. Wayne 11.7 percent (70)
9. City of Detroit 6.7 percent (40)
10. Remainder of Detroit MSA 11.2 percent (67)
2. CODE:
1. Outstate 48.8 percent (293)

(UP/North, West, Southwest, Mid, East Central)
2. Metro Detroit 51.2 percent (307)
(Oakland, Macomb, Wayne, Detroit, Detroit MSA)
3. If the election for State House was held today, generally speaking would you say you would vote for the [ROTATE]
Democratic candidate or would you vote for the Republican candidate?
1. Democratic 40.0 percent (240)

2. Republican 36.5 percent (219)
3. Don’t Know/ Depends…DO NOT OFFER 22.0 percent (132)
4. Refused…DO NOT OFFER 1.5 percent (9)

January 2020
4. Thinking back four years, would you say you are better off financially, worse off financially or would you say financially
things are about the same for you as they were four years ago?
1. Better 43.5 percent (261)

2. Worse 12.2 percent (73)
3. The Same 42.7 percent (256)
4. Don’t Know/ Refused…DO NOT OFFER 1.7 percent (10)
5. Would you say Michigan is on the right track or would you say the state is on the wrong track?
1. Right Track 44.5 percent (267)

2. Wrong Track 26.2 percent (157)
I am going to read you the names of several people you might have heard of. For each, please tell me if you have a favorable or
unfavorable impression of that person.
6. Donald Trump NAME ID: 99.8 percent
1. Heard, favorable 39.8 percent (239)

2. Heard, unfavorable 51.2 percent (307)
3. Heard, no opinion 8.8 percent (53)
4. Never heard of 0.0 percent (0)
7. Joe Biden NAME ID: 98.0 percent


January 2020
8. Elizabeth Warren NAME ID: 85.1 percent

9. Bernie Sanders NAME ID: 98.2 percent

10. Pete Buttigieg NAME ID: 70.6 percent

11. Mike Bloomberg NAME ID: 81.5 percent


January 2020
12. Gretchen Whitmer NAME ID: 91.3 percent

13. Gary Peters NAME ID: 69.9 percent

14. John James NAME ID: 59.0 percent

15. John Dingell NAME ID: 67.3 percent


January 2020
16. Do you approve or disapprove of the job being done by Gretchen Whitmer as Governor of Michigan? ASK: WOULD THAT
BE STRONGLY APPROVE/DISAPPROVE OR JUST SOMEWHAT APPROVE DISAPPROVE?
1. Strongly approve 11.3 percent (68) APPROVE: 43.3

percent
2. Somewhat approve 32.0 percent (192)
3. Somewhat disapprove 16.3 percent (98)
4. Strongly disapprove 20.2 percent (121) DISAPPROVE:35.9
percent
5. Neither approve, nor disapprove/ No Opinion…DO NOT OFFER 15.7 percent (94)
17. Do you approve or disapprove of the job being done by Donald Trump as President of the United States? ASK: WOULD
THAT BE STRONGLY APPROVE/DISAPPROVE OR JUST SOMEWHAT APPROVE/DISAPPROVE?
1. Strongly approve 29.2 percent (175) APPROVE: 47.4

percent
2. Somewhat approve 18.2 percent (109)
3. Somewhat disapprove 5.2 percent (31)
4. Strongly disapprove 44.0 percent (264) DISAPPROVE 49.0
percent
5. Neither approve, nor disapprove/ No Opinion….DO NOT OFFER 3.2 percent (19)
6. Don’t Know/ Refused….DO NOT OFFER 0.3 percent (2)

January 2020
18. Will you vote to re-elect Donald Trump as President, or will you vote for someone else to be President? IF RE-ELECT/
SOMEONE ELSE, ASK: WILL YOU DEFINITELY VOTE TO RE-ELECT/ELECT SOMEONE NEW OR WILL YOU
PROBABLY VOTE TO RE-ELECT/ELECT SOMEONE NEW FOR PRESIDENT?
1. Definitely vote to re-elect 29.0 percent (174) RE-ELECT 35.5

percent
2. Probably vote to re-elect 6.5 percent (39)
3. Depends/ Depends who the Dem Nominee is…DO NOT OFFER 7.3 percent (44) DEPENDS 7.3
percent
4. Probably vote to elect someone else 5.2 percent (31)
5. Definitely vote to elect someone else 46.3 percent (278) NEW 51.5
percent
Now I want you to think about the Presidential election.
19. If the election for President were held today and [ROTATE] Donald Trump was the Republican candidate and Joe Biden was
the Democratic candidate, who would you vote for to be President? IF DON’T KNOW, ASK: WHICH WAY DO YOU
LEAN?
1. Trump 42.0 percent (252) TRUMP: 43.2

percent
2. Lean Trump 1.2 percent (7)

January 2020
3. Biden 47.3 percent (284) BIDEN: 50.1
percent
4. Lean Biden 2.8 percent (17)
5. Don’t Know/ Depends…DO NOT OFFER 5.2 percent (31) UNDECIDED: 5.2
percent
6. Other….DO NOT OFFER 1.3 percent (8)
20. If the election for President were held today and [ROTATE] Donald Trump was the Republican candidate and Bernie Sanders
was the Democratic candidate, who would you vote for to be President? IF DON’T KNOW, ASK: WHICH WAY DO YOU
LEAN?

percent
3. Sanders 46.8 percent (281) SANDERS: 49.0
percent
4. Lean Sanders 2.2 percent (13)
percent

January 2020
21. If the election for President were held today and [ROTATE] Donald Trump was the Republican candidate and Elizabeth
Warren was the Democratic candidate, who would you vote for to be President? IF DON’T KNOW, ASK: WHICH WAY
DO YOU LEAN?

percent
3. Warren 42.7 percent (256) WARREN: 45.7
percent
4. Lean Warren 3.0 percent (18)
percent
22. If the election for President were held today and [ROTATE] Donald Trump was the Republican candidate and Pete Buttigieg
LEAN?

percent
3. Buttigieg 41.8 percent (251) BUTTIGIEG: 45.0
percent
4. Lean Buttigieg 3.2 percent (19)
percent

January 2020
23. If the election for President were held today and [ROTATE] Donald Trump was the Republican candidate and Michael
Bloomberg was the Democratic candidate, who would you vote for to be President? IF DON’T KNOW, ASK: WHICH
WAY DO YOU LEAN?

percent
3. Bloomberg 43.7 percent (262) BLOOMBERG 47.2
percent
4. Lean Bloomberg 3.5 percent (21)
percent
24. I want you to think about President Trump’s actions with the nation of Ukraine. Do you believe his actions were appropriate
for a President, or would you say his actions were inappropriate and he did something wrong?
1. Appropriate 33.5 percent (201)

2. Inappropriate/ Wrong 49.5 percent (297)
3. Don’t Know/ Not Sure/ Refused…DO NOT OFFER 17.0 percent (102)
25. Do believe President Trump’s actions were legal or would say his actions were illegal?
1. Legal 38.0 percent (228)

2. Illegal 40.7 percent (244)
3. Don’t Know/ Not Sure/ Refused…DO NOT OFFER 21.3 percent (128)
26. Would you say his actions were or were not in the interest of the United States?

January 2020
1. Were in US interest 38.5 percent (231)
2. Were not in US interest 49.7 percent (298)
3. Don’t Know/ Not Sure/ Refused….DO NOT OFFER 11.8 percent (71)
27. Do you support or oppose the impeachment and removal from office of Donald Trump as President? ASK: WOULD THAT
BE STRONGLY SUPPORT/OPPOSE OR JUST SOMEWHAT SUPPORT/OPPOSE?
1. Strongly support 35.3 percent (212)

2. Somewhat support 8.2 percent (49)
3. Somewhat oppose 8.7 percent (52)
4. Strongly oppose 42.2 percent (253)
28. Now that the House of Representatives have impeached President Trump, would you say that the U.S. Senate will or will not
give the impeachment trial a fair hearing?
1. Will give fair hearing 38.5 percent (231)

2. Will not give fair hearing 47.0 percent (282)
3. Not Sure/ Don’t Know…DO NOT OFFER 14.0 percent (84)
4. Refused….DO NOT OFFER 0.5 percent (3)
29. If the election for the United State Senate were held today, and [ROTATE] Gary Peters was the Democratic nominee and John
James was the Republican nominee, who would you vote for to be Michigan’s United States Senator? IF DON’T KNOW,
ASK: WHICH WAY DO YOU LEAN?
1. Peters 40.3 percent (242)

2. Lean Peters 3.2 percent (19)
3. James 36.5 percent (219)
4. Lean James 3.2 percent (19)
5. Don’t Know/ Depends…DO NOT OFFER 16.3 percent (98)
6. Other __________________ 0.2 percent (1)

January 2020
Now a few questions for statistical purposes.
30. Generally speaking, would you say you tend to vote mostly for Republican candidates, do you vote mostly for Democratic
candidates, or would you say you vote equally for both Republican and Democratic candidates? IF VOTE EQUALLY ASK:
WOULD YOU SAY YOU LEAN MORE TO THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY ORMORE TO THE REPUBLICAN PARTY,
OR WOULD YOU SAY YOU ARE AN INDEPENDENT VOTER?
1. Strongly Democratic 32.3 percent (194)

2. Lean Democratic 9.7 percent (58)
3. Independent 19.5 percent (117)
4. Lean Republican 9.7 percent (58)
5. Strong Republican 27.8 percent (167)
6. Other/ Refused/ Don’t Know….DO NOT OFFER 1.0 percent (6)
31. And on a scale of one to ten, with one being very low and ten being very high, how motivated are you to vote in this
November’s Presidential election? You can choose any number from one to ten.
SCORE: 9.5
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 DK/Ref
0.5 percent 0.0 percent 0.2 percent 0.5 percent 2.2 percent 2.3 percent 3.0 percent 3.3 percent 4.7 percent
83.0 percent 0.3 percent
32. What would be the last year of schooling you completed?
1. High school graduate or less 21.3 percent (128)

2. Vocational Training/ Some Community College/ Some College 31.3 percent (188)
3. College Graduate 46.7 percent (280)

January 2020
33. Could you please tell me in what year you were born?
1. 18-29 (1991-2002) 17.5 percent (105)

2. 30-39 (1981-1990) 18.2 percent (109)
3. 40-49 (1971-1980) 17.0 percent (102)
4. 50-64 (1956-1970) 24.7 percent (148)
5. 65+ (1955 and before) 22.2 percent (133)
34. And would you say you live in an urban area, a suburban area, a small town, or a rural area?
1. Urban 16.8 percent (101)

2. Suburban 36.3 percent (218)
3. Small Town 23.0 percent (138)
4. Rural 21.5 percent (129)
35. And what is your race or ethnic background?
1. Caucasian 74.7 percent (448)

2. African American 14.3 percent (86)
3. Hispanic/ Puerto Rican/ Mexican American 2.0 percent (12)
4. Asian 1.3 percent (8)
5. Mixed Race….DO NOT OFFER 1.3 percent (8)
6. Native American 0.3 percent (2)
7. Other/ Don’t Know/ Refused…DO NOT OFFER 6.0 percent (36)

January 2020
36. And where would you say you primarily get your POLITICAL news?
1. Local television news 20.3 percent (122)

2. Fox News 14.5 percent (87)
3. CNN/MSNBC 10.8 percent (65)
4. Networks (ABC/CBS/NBC) 7.0 percent (42)
5. Radio 7.7 percent (46)
6. Newspapers and newspaper websites 12.5 percent (75)
7. Social media like Facebook and Twitter 11.2 percent (67)
8. Political websites like Breitbart, the Huffington Post 5.5 percent (33)
the Drudge Report
9. Other__________________________________________ 4.7 percent (28)
37. Gender: BY OBSERVATION
1. Male 48.0 percent (288)

2. Female 52.0 percent (312)
38. Telephone
1. Cell 50.0 percent (300)

2. Landline 50.0 percent (300)
39. This survey was commissioned by the news media. Occasionally, they choose to talk to
several participants of the survey. Can we release your name and telephone number to them if they want to talk to you? Or
would you prefer that your opinions remain confidential? IF YES, ASK:

January 2020
AND CAN YOU CONFIRM YOUR NAME? _______________________________
WRITE IN TELEPHONE NUMBER ______________________________________
3. If the election for State House was held today, generally speaking would you say you would vote for the [ROTATE]
Democratic candidate or would you vote for the Republican candidate?
Dem GOP
Out 30.4 percent 46.4 percent
Metro 49.2 percent 27.0 percent
Strong Dem 91.8 percent 0.5 percent

Lean Dem 50.0 percent 3.4 percent
Lean GOP 5.2 percent 65.5 percent
Strong GOP 3.0 percent 91.0 percent
High 36.7 percent 41.4 percent

Some Post 35.6 percent 43.1 percent
College 44.3 percent 30.0 percent
Male 33.3 percent 42.7 percent

Female 46.2 percent 30.8 percent
18-29 46.7 percent 27.6 percent

65+ 42.1 percent 42.1 percent
White 32.1 percent 44.9 percent

Afr Amer 83.7 percent 3.5 percent

January 2020
4. Thinking back four years, would you say you are better off financially, worse off financially or would you say financially
things are about the same for you as they were four years ago?
Better Worse Same

Out 50.5 percent 11.6 percent 35.8 percent
Metro 36.8 percent 12.7 percent 49.2 percent
Strong Dem 21.6 percent 16.0 percent 59.3 percent

Lean Dem 29.3 percent 13.8 percent 55.2 percent
Independent 38.5 percent 16.2 percent 45.3 percent
Lean GOP 56.9 percent 5.2 percent 37.9 percent
Strong GOP 72.5 percent 6.6 percent 19.2 percent
High 40.6 percent 10.2 percent 47.7 percent

Some Post 44.1 percent 11.7 percent 42.0 percent
College 44.6 percent 13.2 percent 40.7 percent
Male 46.9 percent 11.1 percent 39.9 percent

Female 40.4 percent 13.1 percent 45.2 percent
18-29 49.5 percent 10.5 percent 38.1 percent

65+ 35.3 percent 10.5 percent 51.9 percent
White 47.3 percent 10.9 percent 40.0 percent

Afr Amer 30.2 percent 14.0 percent 53.5 percent

January 2020
5. Would you say Michigan is on the right track or would you say the state is on the wrong track?
Right Wrong






January 2020
6. Donald Trump
Favorable Unfavorable No Opinion Never Heard Of

Out 48.8 percent 43.7 percent 7.2 percent 0.0 percent
Metro 31.3 percent 58.3 percent 10.4 percent 0.0 percent
Strong Dem 3.1 percent 93.8 percent 3.1 percent 0.0 percent
Lean Dem 10.3 percent 74.1 percent 13.8 percent 0.0 percent
Independent 34.2 percent 48.7 percent 17.1 percent 0.0 percent
Lean GOP 69.0 percent 13.8 percent 17.2 percent 0.0 percent
Strong GOP 85.6 percent 9.6 percent 4.8 percent 0.0 percent
High 45.3 percent 45.3 percent 9.4 percent 0.0 percent

Some Post 44.7 percent 46.8 percent 8.0 percent 0.0 percent
College 34.3 percent 56.4 percent 9.3 percent 0.0 percent
Male 47.2 percent 45.5 percent 6.9 percent 0.0 percent

Female 33.0 percent 56.4 percent 10.6 percent 0.0 percent
18-29 29.5 percent 59.0 percent 11.4 percent 0.0 percent

65+ 39.8 percent 57.9 percent 2.3 percent 0.0 percent
White 47.1 percent 43.8 percent 8.9 percent 0.0 percent

Afr Amer 4.7 percent 88,4 percent 7.0 percent 0.0 percent

January 2020
7. Joe Biden





Afr Amer 62.8 percent 12.8 percent 19.8 percent 3.5 percent

January 2020
8. Elizabeth Warren






January 2020
9. Bernie Sanders






January 2020
10. Pete Buttigieg






January 2020
11. Mike Bloomberg






January 2020
12. Gretchen Whitmer






January 2020
13. Gary Peters






January 2020
14. John James






January 2020
15. John Dingell






January 2020
16. Do you approve or disapprove of the job being done by Gretchen Whitmer as Governor of Michigan? ASK: WOULD THAT
BE STRONGLY APPROVE/DISAPPROVE OR JUST SOMEWHAT APPROVE DISAPPROVE?
Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly

Approve Approve Disapprove Disapprove





January 2020
17. Do you approve or disapprove of the job being done by Donald Trump as President of the United States? ASK: WOULD
THAT BE STRONGLY APPROVE/DISAPPROVE OR JUST SOMEWHAT APPROVE/DISAPPROVE?

Approve Approve Disapprove Disapprove





January 2020
18. Will you vote to re-elect Donald Trump as President, or will you vote for someone else to be President? IF RE-ELECT/
SOMEONE ELSE, ASK: WILL YOU DEFINITELY VOTE TO RE-ELECT/ELECT SOMEONE NEW OR WILL YOU
PROBABLY VOTE TO RE-ELECT/ELECT SOMEONE NEW FOR PRESIDENT?
Definitely Probably Depends Probably Definitely

Re-Elect Re-Elect Someone New Someone New
Out 35.2 percent 8.5 percent 9.2 percent 5.5 percent 36.9 percent
Metro 23.1 percent 4.6 percent 5.5 percent 4.9 percent 55.4 percent
Strong Dem 1.0 percent 0.0 percent 1.0 percent 3.6 percent 93.3 percent
Lean Dem 5.2 percent 0.0 percent 8.6 percent 12.1 percent 67.2 percent
Independent 16.2 percent 11.1 percent 14.5 percent 9.4 percent 36.8 percent
Lean GOP 48.3 percent 15.5 percent 13.8 percent 1.7 percent 8.6 percent
Strong GOP 71.3 percent 9.6 percent 7.2 percent 2.4 percent 5.4 percent
High 34.4 percent 2.3 percent 7.8 percent 3.9 percent 43.8 percent
Some Post 33.5 percent 6.4 percent 7.4 percent 5.3 percent 42.6 percent
College 23.6 percent 8.6 percent 7.1 percent 5.7 percent 49.6 percent
Male 34.4 percent 8.3 percent 6.9 percent 6.6 percent 37.8 percent
Female 24.0 percent 4.8 percent 7.7 percent 3.8 percent 54.2 percent
18-29 21.9 percent 5.7 percent 3.8 percent 6.7 percent 59.0 percent
65+ 33.1 percent 2.3 percent 7.5 percent 4.5 percent 48.9 percent
White 35.7 percent 7.4 percent 8.5 percent 5.4 percent 37.5 percent
Afr Amer 2.3 percent 0.0 percent 2.3 percent 4.7 percent 88.4 percent

January 2020
19. If the election for President were held today and [ROTATE] Donald Trump was the Republican candidate and Joe Biden was
the Democratic candidate, who would you vote for to be President? IF DON’T KNOW, ASK: WHICH WAY DO YOU
LEAN?
Trump Lean Biden Lean Undecided


January 2020
20. If the election for President were held today and [ROTATE] Donald Trump was the Republican candidate and Bernie Sanders
LEAN?
Trump Lean Sanders Lean Undecided


January 2020
21. If the election for President were held today and [ROTATE] Donald Trump was the Republican candidate and Elizabeth
Warren was the Democratic candidate, who would you vote for to be President? IF DON’T KNOW, ASK: WHICH WAY
DO YOU LEAN?
Trump Lean Warren Lean Undecided


January 2020
22. If the election for President were held today and [ROTATE] Donald Trump was the Republican candidate and Pete Buttigieg
LEAN?
Trump Lean Buttigieg Lean Undecided


January 2020
23. If the election for President were held today and [ROTATE] Donald Trump was the Republican candidate and Michael
Bloomberg was the Democratic candidate, who would you vote for to be President? IF DON’T KNOW, ASK: WHICH
WAY DO YOU LEAN?
Trump Lean Bloomberg Lean Undecided


January 2020
24. I want you to think about President Trump’s actions with the nation of Ukraine. Do you believe his actions were appropriate
for a President, or would you say his actions were inappropriate and he did something wrong?
Appropriate Inappropriate/Wrong






January 2020
25. Do believe President Trump’s actions were legal or would say his actions were illegal?
Legal Illegal Undecided







January 2020
26. Would you say his actions were or were not in the interest of the United States?
US Interest Not in US Interest Undecided







January 2020
27. Do you support or oppose the impeachment and removal from office of Donald Trump as President? ASK: WOULD THAT
BE STRONGLY SUPPORT/OPPOSE OR JUST SOMEWHAT SUPPORT/OPPOSE?

Support Support Oppose Oppose





January 2020
28. Now that the House of Representatives have impeached President Trump, would you say that the U.S. Senate will or will not
give the impeachment trial a fair hearing?
Fair Hearing Not a Fair Hearing Undecided







January 2020
29. If the election for the United State Senate were held today, and [ROTATE] Gary Peters was the Democratic nominee and John
James was the Republican nominee, who would you vote for to be Michigan’s United States Senator? IF DON’T KNOW,
ASK: WHICH WAY DO YOU LEAN?
Peters Lean James Lean Undecided


January 2020
31. And on a scale of one to ten, with one being very low and ten being very high, how motivated are you to vote in this
November’s Presidential election? You can choose any number from one to ten.
SCORE
Out 9.5
Metro 9.5
Strong Dem 9.7

Lean Dem 9.6
Independent 9.1
Lean GOP 9.3
Strong GOP 9.6
High 9.5
Some Post 9.4
College 9.6
Male 9.5
Female 9.5
18-29 9.0
30-39 9.2
40-49 9.6
50-64 9.7
65+ 9.8
White 9.5
Afr Amer 9.5

January 2020

January 2020 Statewide Survey

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January 2020 Statewide Survey

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MICHIGAN STATEWIDE VOTER SURVEY

Michigan Statewide Survey 1

14 Aggregate Survey Results

Michigan Statewide Survey 2

Historic Motivation to Vote Continues Unabated

 No demographic groups comes in at a motivation to vote below 9.0.

Party Affiliation Oct 12 Oct 14 Oct 16 Oct 18 June 19 Jan 20

Whitmer Job Approval Takes Slight Drop

 The chart below compares her approval by party affiliation.

Party Affiliation Approve Disapprove

Michigan Statewide Survey 3

Trump Numbers See Minor Improvement [Inside the Margin of Error]

Survey Period Favorable Unfavorable

Trump Job Approval

Michigan Statewide Survey 4

Region by Gender Trump Approve Trump Disapprove

 The chart below looks at white men by education level.

White Men by Education Trump Approve Trump Disapprove

 The chart below looks at white women by education level.

White Women by Educ Trump Approve Trump Disapprove

Trump Re-Elect Remains Consistent, Signals Incumbent Vulnerability

 These numbers have remained unchanged since June 2019.

Michigan Statewide Survey 5

Candidate Favorable Unfavorable

Strong Democratic Voters Leaning Democratic Voters

Michigan Statewide Survey 7

Trump 43.2 percent Biden Lead +6.9 percent

Trump 41.2 percent Bloomberg Lead +6.0 percent

Trump 44.8 percent Sanders Lead +4.2 percent

Michigan Statewide Survey 8

Independent Head to Head Presidential Contest

Michigan Statewide Survey 9

Area Trump/Biden Trump/Sanders Trump/Bloomberg Trump/Warren Trump/Buttigieg

Michigan Statewide Survey 10

How Independent Voters View the Ukraine Issue

 Gary Peters 43.5 percent

Michigan Statewide Survey 12

Michigan Statewide Survey 13

A. Are you registered to vote at the address I am calling?

1. Yes…..CONTINUE 100.0 percent (600)

1. Definitely going to vote….CONTINUE 87.7 percent (526)

Michigan Statewide Survey 14

1. And could you tell me in what county you vote in?

1. UP/North 13.0 percent (78)

1. Outstate 48.8 percent (293)

1. Democratic 40.0 percent (240)

Michigan Statewide Survey 15

1. Better 43.5 percent (261)

1. Right Track 44.5 percent (267)

6. Donald Trump NAME ID: 99.8 percent

1. Heard, favorable 39.8 percent (239)

7. Joe Biden NAME ID: 98.0 percent

1. Heard, favorable 34.0 percent (204)

Michigan Statewide Survey 16

1. Heard, favorable 26.3 percent (158)

9. Bernie Sanders NAME ID: 98.2 percent

1. Heard, favorable 39.0 percent (234)

10. Pete Buttigieg NAME ID: 70.6 percent

1. Heard, favorable 22.2 percent (133)

11. Mike Bloomberg NAME ID: 81.5 percent

1. Heard, favorable 16.3 percent (98)

Michigan Statewide Survey 17

1. Heard, favorable 32.7 percent (196)

13. Gary Peters NAME ID: 69.9 percent