EnergyEnviron Nptel SJ l4 PDF

ECOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT!
!
Module on !
!
Energy & Environment
Prof. Sreenivas Jayanti!

Department of Chemical Engineering!
IIT Madras!
Email: sjayanti@iitm.ac.in
How Much Energy Does Man Need ?
10000 BC, Europe

Food
Domestic use
1500 BC, Egypt Industry
Transport
100 BC, China Services
1300 AD, Europe
1880 AD, England
2000 AD, UK
0 50 100 150 200
Energy consumption (GJ/year)
Adapted from Everett et al., Energy Systems and Sustainability, 2012

Energy Use per Capita
https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=31190628
GDP per Energy Use
Strong Correlation between Energy and GDP
Energy Use per Capita
GDP per Energy Use
Energy Consumption vs GDP
By Delphi234 - https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=39984264
Primary energy
End-use sector
Demand for Primary Energy by End-use Region
Billion toe
20 Transport 20 Other
Billions of tonnes of oil equivalent (toe)

Industry* Africa
Other Asia
Non-combusted Transport
India
15 Buildings 15
China
OECD
Industrial
10 10
Non-combusted !
5 5
(petrochemicals, lubricants..)
Buildings
0 0
1990
1970
1980
2000
2020
2030
2010
2040
Adapted from “BP Energy Outlook-2018”

Primary energy demand
d-use sector Region
Demand for Primary Energy by Country Fuel
port 20 Other 20 Renewables

try* Africa Hydro
Other Asia Nuclear
ombusted Others
India Coal
ngs 15 15
China Africa Gas
OECD Other Asia
Oil
India
10 10
China
5 5
OECD
0 0
1990
1970
1980
2000
2020
2030
2010
2040

only 2%, though this is set to become higher with the commissioning of more nuclear power
plants. However, the share of nuclear power is expected to remain in single digits. Among the
Installed Power Generation Capacity in India!
new renewable sources, wind power has the highest contribution at 8% while solar has only
1%. Again, these numbers are set (asto of March
increase 2015)
rather dramatically if GoI’s plans for renewable
energy in the coming years fructify.
Small Hydro Diesel

Solar
Biomass Power 0.5%
1% Waste to Energy
Power/Cogen. 2%
0.04%
2%
Nuclear
2% Wind
8%
Gas
9%
Hydro Coal
16% 60%
Figure 2.1 Fuel-wise installed power generation mix of utilities (in %) as on March 31, 2015
Jayanti et al.,(2018): GTWG-ACT Report
(Source:CEA).
Effects of Pollutants: SOx
• Among conventional pollutants, sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions are
known to cause detrimental impacts on human health and the
environment. !
!
• The major health concerns associated with exposure to high
concentrations of SO2 include breathing difficulties, respiratory illness,
and aggravation of existing cardiovascular diseases. !
!
• In addition to the health impacts, sulphur dioxide leads to acid
deposition in the environment. This causes acidification of lakes and
streams and damages tree foliage and agricultural crops. !
!
• Furthermore, acid deposition accelerates the decay of buildings and
monuments. When they are airborne, SO2 and its particulate matter
derivatives contribute to visibility degradation.
Effects of Pollutants: NOx
• From environmental pollution point of view, NO, NO2 and N2O together are called NOx; these
gases are produced during combustion and reach the atmosphere in this form.!
!
• NO and NO2 are toxic; both are short-lived with a life time of about four days. Of the two, NO is
less toxic and causes eye and throat irritation. Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is highly toxic and can
cause acute lung injury even in short doses. High outdoor concentrations can lead to respiratory,
cardiovascular problems and mortality. !
• N2O is not toxic but is a greenhouse gas with a global warming potential (GWP) of 270. It has an
atmospheric life time of 100 to 200 years. !
!
• NOx emissions contribute to many environmental problems like photochemical smog, acid rain,
tropospheric ozone, ozone depletion in stratosphere, greenhouse effect; acidification of local
water bodies (which can also occur due to SO2 from power plants and NH3 from fertilizers) and
eutrophication--indicated by algal blooms and oxygen deficiency– of water bodies and even soil.!
• !
• Short-term effects on humans include sore throat and phlegm; acute lower respiratory illness is
possible on short-term exposure to NO2 concentration of 150 μg/m3 or higher. Health effects
(pulmonary illnesses) are also produced from exposure to O3 produced from NO2. Phytotoxicity
of O3 leads to reduced agricultural output.
Effects of Pollutants: Particulate Matter
• Particulate matter (PM), also known as particulate pollution, predominantly includes the
tiny particles of fly ash expelled from pulverized coal-fired power plants; nearly 80% of
the ash from the mineral matter in the coal leaves with the flue gas. !
!
• Fugitive dust from coal handling and ash ponds, complex oxidation reactions involving
gases, such as sulphur dioxide (SO2) or nitrogen oxides (NOX) also significantly
contributes to particulate pollution in and around the power plant.!
!
• The health and environmental impacts of particulate matter include the following:
increase in respiratory problems such as aggravation of asthma, chronic bronchitis,
decreased lung function, and premature death; impaired visibility in areas surrounding
the power plants; !
!
• Deposition and settling of particulate matter on lakes, streams, soil, leading to changes
in soil and water nutrient balance, damaging forests and farms, which affect the
diversity of the regional ecosystem.
Effects of Pollutants: Mercury
• Mercury is among the least abundant elements in coal. Nevertheless, it has been
among the most studied elements in coal due to its extremely toxic effects and its
tendency to bio-accumulate through the food chain (Yudovich and Ketris, 2005). !
!
• The presence of mercury in the environment can have severe consequences for
both wildlife and human health. !
!
• Metallic mercury, after being converted to methyl mercury by aquatic micro-
organisms, is bio-concentrated and accumulates as it moves up the food chain.
This is thought to be responsible for the deaths of several hundred people and
debilitating birth defects in the 1950s in Minimata, Japan (Morris et al., 2010). !
!
• The presence of methyl mercury in aquatic ecosystems is also thought to carry
potential risks to wildlife such as large fish and piscivorous birds and mammals.
Observed Changes and their Causes
g the Globally averaged greenhouse gas concentrations

buted 400
Ice cores
lying 370
CO2 (ppm)
Atmospheric measurements
arctic 340
erent 310
aged 280
(high 1900
1600
CH4 (ppb)
1300
1000
ge
700
320
N2O (ppb)
300 http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/
assessment-report/ar5/syr/
280 SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wc
over.pdf
260
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
Year
Radiative forcing in 2011 relative to 1750 2040
and 2
CO2 CH4 N2O comb
WMGHG
Halocarbons tive C
increa
Other Anthrop.
sions
were
Total Anthrop.
from
Natural
Abou
rema
−2 −1 0 1 2 3 4 rest w
(W/m2) natur
Figure 1.4 | Radiative forcing of climate change during the industrial era tation
(1750–2011). Bars show radiative forcing from well-mixed greenhouse gases of the
(WMGHG), other anthropogenic forcings, total anthropogenic forcings and natural of th
forcings. The error bars indicate the 5 to 95% uncertainty. Other anthropogenic forc-
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf {WGI
About half of the cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions highest in human history and reached 4
between 1750 and 2011 have occurred in the last 40 years The global economic crisis of 2007/2008
(high confidence). Cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions of porarily. {WGIII SPM.3, 1.3, 5.2, 13.3, 15
Global anthropogenic CO2 emissions

Quantitative information of CH4 and N2O emission time series from 1850 to 1970 is limited
40
35 Fossil fuels, cement and flaring
Forestry and other land use
30
25
(GtCO2/yr)
20
15
10
5
0
1850 1900 1950 2000
Year
Figure 1.5 | Annual global anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions (gigatonne of CO2-equivalent per year, GtCO2/yr) from fossil fue
flaring, and forestry and other land use (FOLU), 1750–2011. Cumulative emissions and their uncertainties are shown as bars and whiskers, re
global effects of the accumulation of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions are shown in Figure 1.3. Greenhouse gas emission d
Figure 1.6. {modified from WGI Figure TS.4 and WGIII Figure TS.2}
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf
anthropogenic CO2 emissions highest in human history and reached 49 (±4.5) GtCO2-eq/yr in 2010.
occurred in the last 40 years The global economic crisis of 2007/2008 reduced emissions only tem-
nthropogenic CO2 emissions of porarily. {WGIII SPM.3, 1.3, 5.2, 13.3, 15.2.2, Box TS.5, Figure 15.1}
Global anthropogenic CO2 emissions Cumulative CO2

tion of CH4 and N2O emission time series from 1850 to 1970 is limited emissions
and flaring 2000

nd use
1500
(GtCO2)
1000
500
0
1900 1950 2000 1750 1750
Year – –
1970 2011
carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions (gigatonne of CO2-equivalent per year, GtCO2/yr) from fossil fuel combustion, cement production and
U), 1750–2011. Cumulative emissions and their uncertainties are shown as bars and whiskers, respectively, on the right-hand side. The
e (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions are shown in Figure 1.3. Greenhouse gas emission data from 1970 to 2010 are shown in
nd WGIII Figure TS.2}
Topic 1 Observed Changes and t
Total annual anthropogenic GHG emissions by gases 1970–2010

+2.2%/yr
2000–2010 52 Gt
49 Gt 2.2%
50
+1.3%/yr 2.0% 5.0%
1970–2000 6.2%
GHG emissions (GtCO2-eq/yr)
16% 20%
40 38 Gt
0.81%
7.4% 11% 10%
18%
30 27 Gt
0.44%
7.9% 16%
19%
20
17% Gas
1 F-Gases
65% 62%
N2O
59%
10 CH4
55% CO2 FOLU
CO2 Fossil fuel and
industrial processes
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2010 2
Year (GWP100 SAR) (GWP
Figure 1.6 | Total annual anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (gigatonne of CO2-equivalent per year, GtCO2-eq/yr) for the period 1970 to 2010, by
fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes; CO2 from Forestry and Other Land Use (FOLU); methane (CH4); nitrous oxide (N2O); fluorinated gases covered
Protocol (F-gases). Right hand side shows 2010 emissions, using alternatively CO2-equivalent emission weightings based on IPCC Second Assessment Report (SAR)
ECOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT!
!
Module on !
!
Energy & Environment
Lecture 4
Prof. Sreenivas Jayanti!

Department of Chemical Engineering!
IIT Madras!
Email: sjayanti@iitm.ac.in
y energy demand
Region FuelEnergy by Fuel
Demand for Primary
her 20 Renewables
ica Hydro
her Asia Nuclear Renewables
ia Coal
15 Hydroelectric
na
Gas Nuclear
CD
Oil
Coal
10
Natural gas
Oil
0
1990
1970
1980
2000
2020
2030
2010
2040

SO2 0.12 0.6 0.65 0.70 0.70 0.60 0.65 0.7 268e 0.80
(a) Raw flue gas (b)After acid condenser (c) After drying and dehydration
(d) After drying, dehydration, and enrichment (e) in ppm (f) in ppb
Power and Pollutants from a Coal Power Plant
Pollutant
Emissions!
SO2, SO3!
Figure 5.15. Schematic
Ash of power plant-environment
Particulates SiO2 interaction for Base-Case configuration.
NO, N2O!
composition MgO, CaO, P CO, CO2!
Trace Pollutant As, Hg, Be, Cd, Cl, Cr, Co, Pb, Mn, Sb, Se, Particulates,!
elements formation, Ni, V, W, radioactive elements aerosols of trace
Ash disposal elements
Jayanti et al.,(2018): GTWG-ACT Report
Greenhouse gas emissions by economic sectors
Electricity
and heat production Energy
25% 1.4%
AFOLU
24%
Buildings Industry
6.4% 11%
Transport
Transport Total: 49 Gt CO2-eq 0.3%
14% (2010)
Industry
21% Buildings
12%
Other
energy
9.6% AFOLU
0.87%
Direct GHG emissions Indirect CO2 emissions
(c) Globally averaged greenhouse gas concentrations
400
380
360
CO2 (ppm)
1800
330
340 1600 320
CH4 (ppb)
N2O (ppb)
320 1400 310
1200 300
300 290
1000
280
280 800 270
1850 1900 1950 2000
Year
Global anthropogenic CO2 emissions Cumulative CO2
(d) Quantitative information of CH4 and N2O emission time series from 1850 to 1970 is limited emissions
40
35 Fossil fuels, cement and flaring 2000
Forestry and other land use
30
1500
(GtCO2/yr)
25
(GtCO2)
20
1000
15
10 500
5
0 0
1850 1900 1950 2000 1750 1750
Year – –
1970 2011
r Policymakers
Contributions to observed surface temperature change over the period 1951–2010
OBSERVED WARMING
Greenhouse gases
Other anthropogenic forcings
Combined anthropogenic forcings
Natural forcings
Natural internal variability
–0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0

(°C)
e SPM.3 | Assessed likely ranges (whiskers) and their mid-points (bars) for warming trends over the 1951–2010 period from well-mixed greenhouse
other anthropogenic forcings (including the cooling effect of aerosols and the effect of land use change), combined anthropogenic forcings, natural
gs and natural internal climate variability (which is the element of climate variability that arises spontaneously within the climate system even in the
Energy accumulation within the Earth’s climate system The annual mean Arctic sea ice extent decrea
(when satellite observations commenced) to 2
300
was very likely in the range 3.5 to 4.1% per de
Upper ocean
Deep ocean
has decreased in every season and in every
Ice
1979, with the most rapid decrease in decada
250 (high confidence). For the summer sea ice mi
Land
Atmosphere very likely in the range of 9.4 to 13.6% per
Uncertainty 1.07 million km2 per decade) (see Figure 1.1
200 annual mean Antarctic sea ice extent increa
to 1.8% per decade (range of 0.13 to 0.20
between 1979 and 2012. However, there is h
150 are strong regional differences in Antarctica,
some regions and decreasing in others. {WGI
There is very high confidence that the extent

1021 J
1 100
snow cover has decreased since the mid-20
2.4] % per decade for March and April, and 11
over the 1967 to 2012 period. There is high co
50
temperatures have increased in most region
sphere since the early 1980s, with reduction
http://www.ipcc.ch/
extent in some regions. The increase in perm
0 pdf/assessment-
occurred in response to increased surface te
report/ar5/syr/
snow cover.SYR_AR5_FINAL_f
{WGI SPM B.3, 4.5, 4.7.2}
ull_wcover.pdf
−50
1.1.4 Sea level
−100 Over the period 1901–2010, global mean

1980 1990 2000 2010 [0.17 to 0.21] m (Figure 1.1). The rate of
Year mid-19th century has been larger than th
Projected Risks to Ecosystems from Climate Change
Physical systems
Glaciers,
snow, ice Rivers, lakes, Coastal erosion
and/or floods and/or and/or sea level
permafrost drought effects
Biological systems
Terrestrial Marine
ecosystems Wildfire ecosystems
Human and managed systems

Food Livelihoods, health
production and/or economics
Climate Change 2014
d
Synthesis Report
................................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................................
Edited by
on . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The Core Writing Team Rajendra K. Pachauri Leo Meyer
Synthesis Report Chairman Head, Technical Support Unit
ary for Policymakers IPCC
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . IPCC
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .IPCC
................................
SPM 1. Observed Changes and their Causes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Core Writing Team
SPM 2. Future Climate
Rajendra Changes,
K. Pachauri (Chair), Risks
Myles R. Allen (Unitedand Impacts
Kingdom), Vicente R. Barros
. . . . .(Argentina),
. . . . . . . . John
. . . . Broome
. . . . . .(United
. . . . . .Kingdom),
. . . . . . . Wolfgang
.......................
Cramer (Germany/France), Renate Christ (Austria/WMO), John A. Church (Australia), Leon Clarke (USA), Qin Dahe (China), Purnamita
SPM 3. Future Pathways for Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development

Dasgupta (India), Navroz K. Dubash (India), Ottmar Edenhofer (Germany), Ismail Elgizouli (Sudan), Christopher B. Field (USA), Piers
...................
Forster (United Kingdom), Pierre Friedlingstein (United Kingdom/Belgium), Jan Fuglestvedt (Norway), Luis Gomez-Echeverri (Colombia),
Stephane Hallegatte (France/World Bank), Gabriele Hegerl (United Kingdom/Germany), Mark Howden (Australia), Kejun Jiang (China),
SPM 4. Adaptation and Mitigation .................................................................................
Blanca Jimenez Cisneros (Mexico/UNESCO), Vladimir Kattsov (Russian Federation), Hoesung Lee (Republic of Korea), Katharine J. Mach
(USA), Jochem Marotzke (Germany), Michael D. Mastrandrea (USA), Leo Meyer (The Netherlands), Jan Minx (Germany), Yacob Mulugetta
launched prior to SORCE and still operating in 2008 (Section 8.4.1.1).
Kopp and Lean (2011) conclude that the SORCE/TIM value of TSI is the The components of the radiation budget at the surface are generally
Global Mean Energy Budget

most credible value because it is validated by a National Institute of
Standards and Technology calibrated cryogenic radiometer. This revised
TSI estimate corresponds to a solar irradiance close to 340 W m–2 glob-
more uncertain than their counterparts at the TOA because they cannot
be directly measured by passive satellite sensors and surface measure-
ments are not always regionally or globally representative. Since AR4,
ally averaged over the Earth’s sphere (Figure 2.11). new estimates for the downward thermal infrared (IR) radiation at
incoming solar reflected thermal outgoing

Units (Wm ) solar TOA
-2
TOA TOA
340 100 239

(340, 341) (96, 100) (236, 242)
atmospheric
79 window
(74, 91)
greenhouse
solar absorbed latent heat
gases
atmosphere
solar solar
down
185 24
reflected
(179, 189) (22,26)
surface surface
161 84 20 398 342

(154, 166) (70, 85) (15, 25) (394, 400) (338, 348)
imbalance
0.6 solar absorbed evapo- sensible thermal thermal

(0.2, 1.0) surface ration heat up surface down surface
Figure 2.11: | Global mean energy budget under present-day climate conditions. Numbers state magnitudes of the individual energy fluxes in W m–2, adjusted within their
uncertainty ranges to close the energy budgets. Numbers in parentheses attached to the energy fluxes cover the range of values in line with observational constraints. (Adapted
from Wild et al., 2013.)
181
28
be identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean into all directions. The downward directed component of this LWR adds
and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended heat to the lower layers of the atmosphere and to the Earth’s surface
period, typically decades or longer. (greenhouse effect). The dominant energy loss of the infrared radiation
Drivers of climate change
The Earth’s climate system is powered by solar radiation (Figure 1.1).
from the Earth is from higher layers of the troposphere. The Sun pro-
vides its energy to the Earth primarily in the tropics and the subtropics;
Approximately half of the energy from the Sun is supplied in the vis- this energy is then partially redistributed to middle and high latitudes
ible part of the electromagnetic spectrum. As the Earth’s tempera- by atmospheric and oceanic transport processes.
Natural
Fluctuations in SWR Reflected by
Outgoing Longwave
Radiation (OLR)
Incoming
Solar Output the Atmosphere
Shortwave SWR
Radiation (SWR)
Chemical
SWR Absorbed by Aerosol/cloud Reactions
the Atmosphere Interactions
Clouds Ozone Greenhouse

Aerosols SWR, LWR SWR, LWR
Gases and
Large Aerosols
SWR Chemical LWR
Reactions
Emission
of
Back Gases
Latent Longwave LWR and Aero
Heat Flux Emitted sols
Sensible Radiation
Heat Flux (LWR) from
Surface
SWR Absorbed by
SWR Reflected by
the Surface
the Surface
Ice/Snow Cover
Vegetation
Color Changes
Ocean ight
He Surface
Wave
Albedo
Changes
SWR
Figure 1.1 | Main drivers of climate change. The radiative balance between incoming solar shortwave radiation (SWR) and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) is influenced by 29
global climate ‘drivers’. Natural fluctuations in solar output (solar cycles) can cause changes in the energy balance (through fluctuations in the amount of incoming SWR) (Section
2.3). Human activity changes the emissions of gases and aerosols, which are involved in atmospheric chemical reactions, resulting in modified O3 and aerosol amounts (Section 2.2).
O3 and aerosol particles absorb, scatter and reflect SWR, changing the energy balance. Some aerosols act as cloud condensation nuclei modifying the properties of cloud droplets
sient simulations is different than in an equilibrium simulation. The (see Figure 1.2 and Box 5.1). Even if anthropogenic emissions were
transient climate response is defined as the change in global surface immediately ceased (Matthews and Weaver, 2010) or if climate forcings
temperature at the time of atmospheric CO2 doubling in a global cou- were fixed at current values (Wigley, 2005), the climate system would
Feedbacks and Timescales of Climate change

pled ocean–atmosphere climate model simulation where concentra-
tions of CO2 were increased by 1% yr–1. The transient climate response
continue to change until it came into equilibrium with those forcings
(Section 12.5). Because of the slow response time of some components
+ ve = rise in
Longwave
radiation temperature!
!
Snow/ice Clouds
Lapse rate - ve = decrease in
albedo Water
vapor air temperature
Ocean Emission of non-CO2

circulation greenhouse gases
and aerosols
Peat and permafrost

decomposition
HOURS DAYS YEARS CENTURIES

Longwave rad. Air-land CO2 exchange
Lapse rate
and biogeochemical Air-sea CO2
Water vapor
Clouds processes exchange
Snow/sea ice albedo
Air-land CO2 exchange
Biogeophysics
Non-CO2 GHG and aerosols
Air-sea CO2 exchange Biogeophysical
Peat/Permafrost
Land ice processes
Ocean circ.
30
Figure 1.2 | Climate feedbacks and timescales. The climate feedbacks related to increasing CO2 and rising temperature include negative feedbacks (–) such as LWR, lapse
rate (see Glossary in Annex III), and air–sea carbon exchange and positive feedbacks (+) such as water vapour and snow/ice albedo feedbacks. Some feedbacks may be
positive or negative (±): clouds, ocean circulation changes, air–land CO2 exchange, and emissions of non-GHGs and aerosols from natural systems. In the smaller box, the
100
CO23 Levels over
2
Millions of
1
Years 0
Age (Ma)
2000
1000
Atmospheric CO2
(ppm)
500
200
CO2 proxies
Phytoplankton Boron
Stomata Liverworts
Nahcolite Paleosols
100
60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Age (Ma)
31
5.2 | (Top) Orbital-scale Earth system responses to radiative forcings and perturbations from 3.5 Ma to present. Reconstructed dust mass accumulation r
sector of the Southernhttp://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf
Ocean (red) (Martinez-Garcia et al., 2011). Sea level curve (blue) is the stacked 18O proxy for ice volume and ocean temperature (Lisie
Sea-level and CO2 ppm in “Recent” Past
mation from Paleoclimate Archives Chapter 5
MPWP
Dust accumulation
Southern Ocean
(g m−2 yr−1)
1
2
5
10
0 20
sea level (m)
Global
Tropical sea−surface
temperature (°C)
−100
28
26
500
24
Atmospheric CO2
400
(ppm)
300
200
100
3 2 1 0
Age (Ma)
32
1°C kyr–1 and 1.5°C kyr–1 at the millennial time scale (cf. Shakun et ther highlighted by the near-zero lag between the deglacial rise in CO2
al., 2012; Figure 5.3i), although regionally and on shorter time scales and averaged deglacial Antarctic temperature recently reported from
Sea-level and CO2 ppm in “Recent” Past

higher rates may have occurred, in particular during a sequence of
abrupt climate change events (see Section 5.7).
improved estimates of gas-ice age differences (Pedro et al., 2012; Par-
renin et al., 2013). Previous studies (Monnin et al., 2001; Table 5.A.4)
33
Figure 5.3 | Orbital parameters and proxy records over the past 800 kyr. (a) Eccentricity. (b) Obliquity. (c) Precessional parameter (Berger and Loutre, 1991). (d) Atmospheric
concentration of CO2 from Antarctic ice cores (Petit et al., 1999; Siegenthaler et al., 2005; Ahn and Brook, 2008; Lüthi et al., 2008). (e) Tropical sea surface temperature stack
(Herbert et al., 2010). (f) Antarctic temperature stack based on up to seven different ice cores (Petit et al., 1999; Blunier and Brook, 2001; Watanabe et al., 2003; European Project
major tectonic upheavals or in major deltas, where subsidence due to sediment compaction—sometimes amplified
by ground-fluid extraction—dominates.
Rate of Sea-level Change in Recent Past
The instrumental and geologic record support the conclusion that the current rate of mean global sea level change
is unusual relative to that observed and/or estimated over the last two millennia. Higher rates have been observed
in the geological record, especially during times of transition between glacial and interglacial periods.
(a) 22,000 to 7,000 14,600 2,000 years ago

years ago years ago to 1899 1900-1999 1993-2012
60
50 (b)
4
Rate of sea-level change (mm yr-1)

Rate of sea-level change (mm yr-1)
40 3
2
30
1
20 0
Last 2 20th Century Satellite
Millennia Altimetry Era
-1
10
0
Average Meltwater Last 2 20th Century Satellite
Glacial-to-Interglacial Pulse 1A Millennia Altimetry Era
-10
34
FAQ 5.2, Figure 1 | (a) Estimates of the average rate of global mean sea level change (in mm yr–1) for five selected time intervals: last glacial-to-interglacial transition;
Meltwater Pulse 1A; last 2 millennia; 20th century; satellite altimetry era (1993–2012). Blue columns denote time intervals of transition from a glacial to an interglacial
period, whereas orange columns denote the current interglacial period. Black bars indicate the range of likely values of the average rate of global mean sea level
(a) Globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature anomaly
0.4
0.2
0
−0.2
(°C)
−0.4
−0.6
−0.8
−1
1850 1900 1950 2000
Year
(b) Globally averaged sea level change
0.1
0.05
0
(m)
−0.05
−0.1
−0.15
−0.2
1850 1900 1950 2000
Year
Carbon Cycle: Stocks and Fluxes
0 ±10
5 89 + 24 -1 )
gC yr )
Rock weathering 0.3

o sp h e re e: 4 ( P
Atm increa s flux
Volcanism 0.1
s p h e r ic N et land
e atmo
(averag
1 PgC = 1015 g of C
Net land use change 1.1 ±0.8

1.7
7.8 ±0.6
2.6 ±1.2
Freshwater outgassing 1.0

an flux
Net oce
Fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas)
118.7 = 107.2 + 11.6

Total respiration and fire
123 = 108.9 + 14.1
Gross photosynthesis
cement production
0.7
2.3 ±0.7
Ocean-atmosphere
78.4 = 60.7 + 17.7

gas exchange
80 = 60 + 20
Rock
ring
weathe
0.1
from
Export ivers
to r
soils
1.7
50 Marine
biota
ocean Rivers
Surface 0 3
90 37 Burial ion
0.9
0.2 Vegetat 0
2 450 - 6 5
101
90 -30 ±45
ost
11 Soils Permafr
ed
Dissolvic 00 ~170 0
diate
Interme sea n 15 0-24
0
e p orga
& de 0 carbon ves
37,10 2 el reser
700 Fossil fu 83-1135
+155 ±3
0 Gas: 3 -264
Oil: 173 541
0.2
6-
Coal: 44 30 Units yr -1)
(PgC
-365 ± Fluxes: (PgC)
floor Stocks:
Ocean iments
s ed
surface ,750
1
36
Fate of CO2 Pulse into Atmosphere
Atmosphere Volcanism
Weathering
Fossil fuel
emissions Respiration
Photosynthesis
Gas exchange
Vegetation
from 1-100 yrs
Surface ocean
Soils
from 10-500 yrs
from 1-10 yrs
Fossil fuel
reserves Rocks
Deep sea
Earth crust
from
100-2000 yrs
>10,000 yrs
Sediments
37
FAQ 6.2, Figure 2 illustrates the decay of a large excess amount of CO2 (5000 PgC, or about 10 times the cumulative
CO2 emitted so far since the beginning of the industrial Era) emitted into the atmosphere, and how it is redistrib-
Fate of CO Pulse into Atmosphere
uted among land and the ocean over time. 2 During the first 200 years, the ocean and land take up similar amounts
of carbon. On longer time scales, the ocean uptake dominates mainly because of its larger reservoir size (~38,000
PgC) as compared to land (~4000 PgC) and atmosphere (589 PgC prior to the Industrial Era). Because of ocean
chemistry the size of the initial input is important: higher emissions imply that a larger fraction of CO2 will remain
in the atmosphere. After 2000 years, the atmosphere will still contain between 15% and 40% of those initial CO2
emissions. A further reduction by carbonate sediment dissolution, and reactions with igneous rocks, such as silicate
weathering and sediment burial, will take anything from tens to hundreds of thousands of years, or even longer.
Ocean invasion
Ocean invasion Reaction with CaCO3
Land uptake
5000
4000 Ocean
Land
3000
(PgC)
2000
Atmosphere Reactions with

1000 igneous rocks
0
0 50 100 150 200 500 1000 1500 2000 4000 6000 8000 10 000
Time (Years)
FAQ 6.2, Figure 2 | Decay of a CO2 excess amount of 5000 PgC emitted at time zero into the atmosphere, and its subsequent redistribution into land and ocean
as a function of time, computed by coupled carbon-cycle climate models. The sizes of the colour bands indicate the carbon uptake by the respective reservoir. The first
two panels show the multi-model mean from a model intercomparison project (Joos et al., 2013). The last panel shows the longer term redistribution including ocean
1 PgC =
dissolution of carbonaceous sediments as computed with an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (after Archer et al., 2009b).
10 15 g of C
38
2003; Brovkin et al., 2010; Frölicher et al., 2011). nals are measured in the atmosphere.
With a very high confidence, the increase in CO2 emissions from fossil • Because fossil fuel CO2 is devoid of radiocarbon (14C), reconstruc-
CO2 , CH4, N2O in atmosphere over past 2000 years
fuel burning and those arising from land use change are the dominant tions of the 14C/C isotopic ratio of atmospheric CO2 from tree rings
400
380
360
CO2 ppm
340
320
300
280
260
1800
1600
1400
CH4 ppb
1200
1000
800
600
330
320
310
300
N2 O ppb
290
280
6
270
260
250
0 500 1000 1500 1750 1800 1900 2000 2020
Year Year
Figure 6.11 | Atmospheric CO2, CH4, and N2O concentrations history over the industrial era (right) and from year 0 to the year 1750 (left), determined from air enclosed in ice cores 39
and firn air (colour symbols) and from direct atmospheric measurements (blue lines, measurements from the Cape Grim observatory) (MacFarling-Meure et al., 2006).
AR4 (see Section 3.2). The spatial and temporal coverage of bioge-
ochemical measurements in the ocean has also expanded. Satellite Several developments have especially pushed the capabilities in mod-
Evolution of Global Climate Models

observations for sea level (Sections 3.7 and 13.2), sea surface salinity elling forward over recent years (see Figure 1.13 and a more detailed
(Section 3.3), sea ice (Section 4.2) and ocean colour have also been discussion in Chapters 6, 7 and 9).
troduction further developed over the past few years. Chapter 1
a)
Mid-1970s Mid-1980s FAR SAR TAR AR4 AR5
1
Atmosphere C
O
U
Land P
Surface L
E
D
Ocean k&m x 87.5 km
7.5
Sea8 Ice
C
L
b) Aerosols I
M
A
T
Carbon Cycle E
M
Dynamic O
Vegetation D
E
Atmospheric L
.0 km Chemistry
x 30
30.0 km
Land Ice
gure 1.14 | Horizontal resolutions considered in today’s higher resolution models and in the very high resolution models now being tested: (a) Illustration of the European
pography at a resolution of 87.5 × 87.5 km; (b) same as (a) but for a resolution of 30.0 × 30.0 km.
Mid-1970s
here has been a continuing increase in horizontal and vertical resolu- Representations of Earth system processes are much more extensiveMid-1980s FAR SAR TAR AR4 AR5
on. This is especially seen in how the ocean grids have been refined, and improved, particularly for the radiation and the aerosol cloud inter-
nd sophisticated grids are now used in the ocean and atmosphere actions and for the treatment of the cryosphere. The representation of
Figure
odels making optimal use of parallel computer 1.13 | More
architectures. The development
the carbon cycle of
wasclimate
added tomodels over the
a larger number last and
of models 35 has
years
beenshowing how the different components were coupled into comprehensive climate models over time. In 40
odels with higher resolution are available for more regions. Figure improved since AR4. A high-resolution stratosphere is now included in
each aspect (e.g., the atmosphere, which comprises a wide range of atmospheric processes) the complexity and range of processes has increased over time (illustrated by growing
14a and 1.14b show the large effect on surface representation from many models. Other ongoing process development in climate models
cylinders).
horizontal grid spacing of 87.5 km (higher resolution thanNote that during
most cur- includes the same time
the enhanced the horizontal
representation andeffects
of nitrogen vertical
on theresolution
carbon has increased considerably e.g., for spectral models from T21L9 (roughly 500 km horizontal resolu-
nt global models and similar to that used intion and
today’s 9 vertical
highly resolvedlevels)
cycle.in
As the
new1970s toorT95L95
processes (roughly
treatments 100
are added kmmodels,
to the horizontal
they resolution and 95 vertical levels) at present, and that now ensembles with at least three independent
consistent short-lived gases and land use changes. They are not necessarily more capable of representing future developme
the SRES scenarios. Four RCP scenarios were selected from the published literature (Fujino et al., 2006; Smith and Wigley, 200
et al., 2007; van Vuuren et al., 2007; Hijioka et al., 2008; Wise et al., 2009) and updated for use within CMIP5 (Masui et
; Riahi et al., 2011; Thomson et al., 2011; van Vuuren et al., 2011a). The four scenarios are identified by the 21st century peak
lization value of the RF derived by the reference model (in W m–2) (Box 1.1, Figure 1): the lowest RCP, RCP2.6 (also referred to
(continued on next pa
History RCPs ECPs
14
RCP8.5
12
Radiative forcing (Wm-2)
10
~8.5 (Wm-2)
8
RCP6
6 ~6 (Wm-2)
SCP6to4.5 RCP4.5
~4.5 (Wm-2)
4
~3.0 (Wm-2)
2 RCP2.6
−2
1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500
Year
1.1, Figure 1 | Total RF (anthropogenic plus natural) for RCPs and extended concentration pathways (ECP)—for RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP6, RCP8.5, as well a
ementary extension RCP6 to 4.5 with an adjustment of emissions after 2100 to reach RCP4.5 concentration levels in 2250 and thereafter. Note that the stated
Representative concentration pathways (RCP)
refer to the illustrative default median estimates only. There is substantial uncertainty in current and future RF levels for any given scenario. Short-term variati
are due to both volcanic forcings in the past (1800–2000)and andtheir radiative
cyclical solar forcing
forcing assuming (RF)
a constant 11-year solar cycle (following the CMIP5 recommen
except at times of stabilization. (Reproduced from Figure 4 in Meinshausen et al., 2011.) 41
Introduction Chapter 1
Evolution of Global GHG Gas Concentration

Box 1.1 (continued)
a) History RCPs ECPs

1000 SRES A1FI
RCP8.5
SRES A2
CO2 equivalent (CO2-eq ppm)

900
RCP6 1
800 SRES A1B
SCP6to4.5 SRES B2
700
SRES A1T
600 RCP4.5
SRES B1
500
400 RCP2.6
300
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300
Global CO2 (fossil & ind.) emissions (GtC yr-1)
b) History RCPs ECPs

30 SRES
A1FI SRES
25 A2
RCP8.5
20
SRES
A1B
15 SRES
B2
SRES
10 B1
SRES
5 A1T RCP6
RCP4.5
0
RCP2.6
SCP6to4.5
−5
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300
Box 1.1, Figure 3 | (a) Equivalent CO2 concentration and (b) CO2 emissions (except land use emissions) for the four RCPs and their ECPs as well as some SRES
scenarios. 42
To aid model understanding of longer-term climate change implications, these RCPs were extended until 2300 (Meinshausen et al.,
arios. Four RCP scenarios were selected from the published literature (Fujino et al.,
the2006; Smith and Wigley,
harmonization 2006;connected historical reconstruction) an
(smoothly
van Vuuren et al., 2007; Hijioka et al., 2008; Wise et al., 2009) and updated forofuse within CMIP5
atmospheric (Masui etmodelling
chemistry al., studies, particularly for troposph
Evolution of Global Climate Models
2011; Thomson et al., 2011; van Vuuren et al., 2011a). The four scenarios are identified by the 21st century peak or
emission levels, and extension of GHG concentrations with historica
of the RF derived by the reference model (in W m ) (Box 1.1, Figure 1): the lowest RCP, RCP2.6 (also referred to as
–2
2005 GHG concentrations levels (Meinshausen et al., 2011). The final
(continued on next page)
History RCPs ECPs and concentrations, gridded reactive gas and aerosol emissions, as w
14 Box 1.1). (continued on next page)
RCP8.5
12
Radiative forcing (Wm-2)
10 History RCPs ECPs

~8.5 (Wm-2) 2000
8 a) Carbon
ppm
RCP8.5
RCP6 Dioxide
6 ~6 (Wm-2)
SCP6to4.5 RCP4.5
1500
~4.5 (Wm-2)
4
~3.0 (Wm-2)
2 RCP2.6 1000
0
900
−2
1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500
Year 800
RCP6
tal RF (anthropogenic plus natural) for RCPs and extended concentration pathways (ECP)—for RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP6, RCP8.5, as well as a
n RCP6 to 4.5 with an adjustment of emissions after 2100 to reach RCP4.5 concentration levels in 2250 and thereafter. 700Note that the stated RF SCP6to4.5
ative default median estimates only. There is substantial uncertainty in current and future RF levels for any given scenario. Short-term variations
600
olcanic forcings in the past (1800–2000) and cyclical solar forcing assuming a constant 11-year solar cycle (following the CMIP5 recommenda-
stabilization. (Reproduced from Figure 4 in Meinshausen et al., 2011.) RCP4.5
500
147
RCP2.6
400
300
ppt 43
1000 d) CFC12−eq
900
The atmosphere and ocean are both fluid bodies, so warming at the surface should also be seen in the lower atmo-
sphere, and deeper down into the upper oceans, and observations confirm that this is indeed the case. Analyses of
Changes in a Warmer World

measurements made by weather balloon radiosondes and satellites consistently show warming of the troposphere,
the active weather layer of the atmosphere. More than 90% of the excess energy absorbed by the climate system
since at least the 1970s has been stored in the oceans as can be seen from global records of ocean heat content
going back to the 1950s. (continued on next page)
Glacier Volume
Air Temperature
in the lowest few Km (troposphere)
Water Vapor
Temperature
Over Land
Sea Ice Area
Snow Cover
Marine Air Temperature
Sea Surface Temperature
Sea Level
Ocean Heat Content
FAQ 2.1, Figure 1 | Independent analyses of many components of the climate system that would be expected to change in a warming world exhibit trends
consistent with warming (arrow direction denotes the sign of the change), as shown in FAQ 2.1, Figure 2. 44
Precipitation extremes also appear to be increasing, but there is large spatial variability, and observed trends in
droughts are still uncertain except in a few regions. While robust increases have been seen in tropical cyclone fre-
Changes in a Warmer World
quency and activity in the North Atlantic since the 1970s, the reasons for this are still being debated. There is limited
evidence of changes in extremes associated with other climate variables since the mid-20th century.
Heavy Precipitation Events
Droughts Mediterranean,
West Africa
Droughts Central North America
Northwest Australia
Hot Days and Nights;

Warm Spells and Heat Waves
Cold Days and Nights
Strongest Tropical Cyclones North Atlantic
FAQ 2.2, Figure 2 | Trends in the frequency (or intensity) of various climate extremes (arrow direction denotes the sign of the change) since the middle of the 20th
century (except for North Atlantic storms where the period covered is from the 1970s).
45
219
226 [91 to 361] Gt yr–1 (sea level equivalent, 0.62 [0.25 to these occurred in similar amounts. There is high confiden
r–1) in the period 1971–2009, 275 [140 to 410] Gt yr–1 (0.76 area subject to summer melt has increased over the last tw
13] mm yr–1) in the period 1993–2009 and 301 [166 to 436] {4.4.2, 4.4.3}
A 2005
3 [0.46 to 1.20] mm yr–1) between Tale andof Two
2009 8 Ice Masses
. {4.3.3;
4.5}
(a) (b)
Antarctica Greenland
Sea ice extent increased at ! Arctic sea ice extent decreased at !
between 1.2 and 1.5% per decade! between 3.5 and 4.1% per decade!
over the period 1979-2012 over the period 1979-2012
16
5000 Glaciers 14
s (Gt)
Greenland
12
Fossil fue
CO2 emiss
Fate of CO2 emissions
0
10
fossil fuel and cement from energy statistics
land use change from data and models
residual land sink
measured atmospheric growth rate
Annual anthropogenic CO2 emissions
ocean sink from data and models
and partitioning (PgC yr –1) 5
emissions
partitioning
10
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

Year
47
Figure TS.4 | http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf

Annual anthropogenic CO2 emissions and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land and ocean (PgC yr–1) from 1750 to 2011. (Top) Fossil fuel and
cover. {1.1.3}
This report includes information relevant to Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
SPM 1.
(UNFCCC). Observed Changes and their Causes
The annual mean Arctic sea-ice extent decreased over the period 1979 to 2012, with a rate that was very likely in the range
3.5 to 4.1% per decade. Arctic sea-ice extent has decreased in every season and in every successive decade since 1979, with
SPM 1.
Human
the most
SPM
rapidinfluence
decrease inon
1.extentgases
Observed
Observed Changes and their Causes
the climate
decadal system
mean extent
Changes and
is clear,
in summer andconfidence).
(high
theirperCauses
recent anthropogenic emissions
It is very likely that the annualofmean
green-
Antarctic
house
sea-ice are the
increased in thehighest
range ofin
1.2history.
to 1.8% Recent climate
decade betweenchanges
1979 and have
2012.had widespread
However, impacts
there is high confidence
that on
there human and regional
are strong naturaldifferences
systems. in {1}Antarctica, with extent increasing in some regions and decreasing in others.
{1.1.3, Figure 1.1}
Human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of green-
house Human
gases are theinfluence on the
highest in history. climate
Recent system
climate changes have ishad
clear, and recent
widespread impacts anth
Overon
SPM 1.1 house
thehuman
period 1901
Observed gases
andtonatural
2010, are
global
changes in the the
mean
systems. highest
sea level
{1}
climate rose by 0.19 in
system [0.17history. Recent
to 0.21] m (Figure SPM.1b).climate
The rate of seachanges
level rise
since the mid-19th century has been larger than the mean rate during the previous two millennia (high confidence). {1.1.4,
Figure 1.1} on human and natural systems. {1}
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed
SPMchanges
1.1 Observed changes in the
are unprecedented climate
over system
decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have
SPMwarmed,
1.2 the amounts
Causes of snow
of climate change and ice have diminished, and sea level has risen. {1.1}
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed
SPM
changes 1.1
Anthropogenic Observed
are unprecedented
greenhouse gasoverchanges
decadeshave
emissions toinmillennia.
the climate
increased thesystem
The atmosphere
since and ocean
pre-industrial have
era, driven
Each warmed,
of the lastby
largely the
three amounts
decades
economic has
andofbeen
snow
populationand ice
successively have and
warmer
growth, diminished,
at the
areEarth’s and sea
now surface
higher thanlevel
than any hasThis
risen.
preceding
ever. decade
has led since
{1.1} 1850. The
to atmo-
periodspheric
from 1983 to 2012 was likely
concentrations the warmest
of carbon 30-year
dioxide, period ofand
methane the nitrous
last 1400oxide
years that
in theare
Northern Hemisphere, in
unprecedented where
such assessment
at least the is last
possible (medium
800,000 confidence).
years. The globally
Their effects, averaged
together withcombined
those ofland andanthropogenic
other ocean surface temperature
driv-
data as
ers, Warming
calculated
have by a linear
been detectedof
trend the
show
throughout climate
a warming
the 0.85system
ofclimate[0.65system
Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface
is
°C 2 unequivocal,
to 1.06]and over extremely
are the period 1880 and
to 2012,
likely
than any preceding
since
when
to have
decade
multiplethe
sincebeen
1850. The
independently
periodthe
from changes
produced
dominant
1983 cause
to 2012 are
datasets
wasof the
likely unprecedented
existobserved
(Figure SPM.1a).
the warmestwarming
{1.1.1, Figure
since
30-year period over
ofthe
1.1}
the mid-20th decades
last 1400 century.
years to1.3.1}
in the{1.2,
Northernmillennia.
Hemisphere, where The
such assessment is possible (medium confidence). The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature
data as warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, and se
In addition to robust multi-decadal warming, the globally averaged surface temperature
calculated by a linear trend show a warming of 0.85 [0.65 to 1.06] °C 2
over the
exhibits substantial decadal and
period 1880 to 2012, when multiple
Anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions since the pre-industrial era have driven large
interannual variability (Figure SPM.1a). Due to this natural variability, trends based on short records are very sensitive to the increases in the atmospheric
independently
concentrations produced
of carbon datasets
dioxide exist
(CO (Figure
), methaneSPM.1a).
(CH ) {1.1.1,
and Figureoxide
nitrous 1.1} (N O) (Figure SPM.1c). Between 1750 and 2011,
beginning and end dates and do not in2 general reflect4long-term climate trends. 2 As one example, the rate of warming over
cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions to the atmosphere were 2040 ± 310 GtCO2. About 40% of these emissions have
In additionintothe
remained robust multi-decadal
atmosphere (880 ± warming,
35 GtCO the
); the globally
rest was averaged
removed surface
from thetemperature
atmosphere exhibits
and substantial
stored on land decadal
(in plants and
and
1
Each finding is grounded in an evaluation of 2
underlying evidence and agreement. In many cases, a synthesis of evidence and agreement supports an
interannual http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf
variability (Figure SPM.1a). Due to this natural variability, trends based on short records are very sensitive to the
Each
soils) and in of
assignment
beginning and of
the the
ocean.last
confidence.
end dates
The three
ocean
The summary
and do
has
not decades
terms
in
absorbed
for evidence
general has
about been
30%
are: limited,
reflect long-term successively
ofmedium
the emitted
climate warmer
or robust.anthropogenic
For agreement,
trends. As one
CO2are
they
example, at
low,the
, causing
the Earth’s
ocean
medium
rate of
or high.
warming
A surface
acidification.
level of
over
About half ofis the
confidence anthropogenic
expressed CO2 emissions
using five qualifiers: between
very low, low, medium, 1750
highand
and 2011 have
very high, andoccurred
typeset in in the e.g.,
italics, last medium
40 years (high confidence)
confidence. The follow-
Future Pathways for Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development
CO2 Emissions and Achieving Temperature Targets
Table 3.1 | Key characteristics of the scenarios collected and assessed for WGIII AR5. For all parameters the 10th to 90th percentile of the sce
CO2-eq Con- Change in CO2-eq emissions Likelihood of staying below a

centrations in compared to 2010 (in %) c over the 21st century (rela
2100 Relative
(ppm CO2-eq) f Subcategories position of
the RCPs d 2050 2100 1.5ºC 2ºC
Category label
(conc. range)
<430 Only a limited number of individual model studies have explored levels below 430 ppm CO2-
450 More unlikely
Total range a, g RCP2.6 –72 to –41 –118 to –78 Likely
(430 to 480) than likely
No overshoot of More likely
–57 to –42 –107 to –73
500 530 ppm CO2-eq than not
(480 to 530) Overshoot of 530 About as
–55 to –25 –114 to –90
ppm CO2-eq likely as not
No overshoot of
–47 to –19 –81 to –59
550 580 ppm CO2-eq
Unlikely More unlikely
(530 to 580) Overshoot of 580
–16 to 7 –183 to –86 than likely i
ppm CO2-eq
(580 to 650) Total range –38 to 24 –134 to –50

RCP4.5
(650 to 720) Total range –11 to 17 –54 to –21
Unlikely
(720 to 1000) b Total range RCP6.0 18 to 54 –7 to 72
Table 6.15 | Characteristics of some CDR methods from peer-reviewed literature. Note that a variety of economic, environmental, and other constraints could also limit their
implementation and net potential.
Means of
Carbon Physical Potential
Carbon Dioxide Removing Time Scale of
Storage / of CO2 Removed Reference Unintended Side Effects
Removal Method CO2 from Carbon Storage
Form in a Centurya
Atmosphere
Afforestation and
Biological Land /organic Decades to centuries 40–70 PgC CO2 Removal
House et al. (2002)
Canadell and
Alters surface energy budget, depend-
ing on location; surface warming will
reforestation
(CDR) Techniques
Raupach (2008) be locally increased or decreased;
hydrological cycle will be changed
Bio-energy with car- Biological Geological or Effectively perma- 125 PgC See the footnoteb Same as above
bon-capture and stor- ocean /inorganic nent for geologic,
age (BECCS); biomass centuries for ocean
energy with carbon
capture and storage
Biological Land /organic Decades to centuries 130 PgC Woolf et al. (2010) Same as above
Biochar creation and
storage in soils
Biological Ocean / Centuries to millennia 15–60 PgC Aumont and Bopp (2006), Expanded regions with low oxygen
inorganic Jin and Gruber (2003) concentration; enhanced N2O
Ocean fertilisation Zeebe and Archer (2005) emissions; altered production of
by adding nutrients 280 PgC Cao and Caldeira (2010a) dimethyl sulphide and non-CO2
to surface waters greenhouse gases; possible
disruptions to marine ecosystems
and regional carbon cycles
Ocean-enhanced Biological Ocean / Centuries to millennia 90 PgC Oschlies et al. (2010a); Likely to cause changes to regional
upwelling bringing inorganic 1–2 PgC Lenton and Vaughan ocean carbon cycle opposing CO2
more nutrients to (2009), Zhou and removal, e.g., compensatory
surface waters Flynn (2005) downwelling in other regions
Geochemical Ocean (and Centuries to mil- No determined limit Kelemen and Matter pH of soils and rivers will increase
Land-based increased some soils) / lennia for carbon- (2008), Schuiling and locally, effects on terrestrial/
weathering inorganic ates, permanent for Krijgsman (2006) freshwater ecosystems
silicate weathering 100 PgC Köhler et al. (2010)
Geochemical Ocean / Centuries to mil- No determined limit Rau (2008), Increased alkalinity effects
Ocean-based inorganic lennia for carbon- Kheshgi (1995) on marine ecosystems
increased weathering ates, permanent for
silicate weathering
Chemical Geological or Effectively perma- No determined limit Keith et al. (2006), Not known
Direct air capture ocean /inorganic nent for geologic, Shaffer (2010)
centuries for ocean
50
Notes:
a Physical potential does not account for economic or environmental constraints of CDR methods; for example, the value of the physical potential for afforestation and reforestation does not
are associated with all CDR methods. 2CO Removal (CDR) Techniques
Table 6.14 | Examples of CDR methods and their implications for carbon cycle and climate. The list is non-exhaustive. A ‘rebound’ effect and a thermal inertia of climate system
Carbon Cycle
Nature of
Process to Some Carbon Cycle and
CDR Method Name CDR Removal Storage Location Storage Form
be Modified Climate Implications
Process
Intentionally
Afforestation / reforestationa Biological a,b,h Land (biomass, soils) Organic
a,b,c,d,e,f,g,h,i Alters surface albedo
a,b,c,d,e,f,g,h,i,j
Improved forest managementb d

Land/ocean floor j
Inorganic and evapotranspiration
a,b,c,e,f,g,h,i Lack of permanence
Sequestration of wood in buildingsc e, f,g Land (soils)
dPotentially permanent if buried on

Biomass buriald i Land (wetland soils)
the ocean floor

Enhanced biological No till agriculturee j
Ocean / geological formations
jPermanent if stored in geological reservoir
production and Biocharf
storage on land Conservation agricultureg
Fertilisation of land plantsh
Creation of wetlandsi
Biomass Energy with Carbon
Capture and Storage (BECCS)j
Ocean iron fertilisationk Biological Ocean k,n Inorganic kMay lead to expanded regions with
Algae farming and buriall l,m Organic low oxygen concentration, increased
Enhanced biological N2O production, deep ocean acidi-
production and Blue carbon (mangrove, kelp farming)m
fication and disruptions to marine
storage in ocean Modifying ocean upwelling to bring ecosystems and regional carbon cycle
nutrients from deep ocean to surface nDisruptions to regional carbon cycle
oceann
Enhanced weathering over lando Chemical o
Soils and oceans o,p
Inorganic o
Permanent removal; likely to change
Accelerated Enhanced weathering over oceanp pOcean pH of soils, rivers, and ocean
weathering pPermanent removal; likely
to change pH of ocean
Direct-air capture with storage Chemical Ocean/geological formations Inorganic Permanent removal if stored
Others
in geological reservoirs
Notes
Superscripts in column 2 refer to the corresponding superscripts in columns 4, 5 and 6 of the same row.
51
ing to pre-industrial CO2 levels would require permanently sequester- achieve globally negative emissions after around 2080 (see Section
ing an amount ofhttp://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf
carbon equal to total anthropogenic CO2 emissions 6.4.3). RCP4.5 also assumes some use of BECCS to stabilise CO2 con-
on 21.3–21.5, 22.4, 25.3–25.4, 25.11, 26.2}
–2.3,
.3,
2.2 Projected changes in the climate system
tion 2.2 Projected changes in the climate system
ents
on Surface temperature is projected to rise over the
and
nts 21st century under all assessed emission scenarios.
Surface temperature is projected to rise over the It
k by
nd is very likely that heat waves will occur more often
heir 21st century under all assessed emission scenarios. It
by and last longer, and that extreme precipitation events
bility is very likely that heat waves will occur more often
eir will become more intense and frequent in many
and last longer, and that extreme precipitation events
regions. The ocean will continue to warm and acidify,
ity
will become
and global meanmore intense
sea level and frequent in many
to rise.
ture regions. The ocean will continue to warm and acidify,
eas- and global mean sea level to rise.
,rean
as-
t of The projected changes in Section 2.2 are for 2081–2100 relative to
an
ome 1986–2005, unless otherwise indicated.
ainty
of The projected changes in Section 2.2 are for 2081–2100 relative to
me 2.2.1
per- 1986–2005, Airunless
temperature
otherwise 2021
indicated.
cha-
nty
Projected Risks from Climate Change
1. Risk of severe ill-health and disrupted livelihoods resulting from

storm surges, sea level rise and coastal flooding; inland flooding in
some urban regions; and periods of extreme heat.
2. Systemic risks due to extreme weather events leading to break-

down of infrastructure networks and critical services.
3. Risk of food and water insecurity and loss of rural livelihoods and
income, particularly for poorer populations.
4. Risk of loss of ecosystems, biodiversity and ecosystem goods, func-

tions and services.
CO2 Generation from a Cement Plant
● In the year 2008, global cement production was 2.5Gt, and CO2 emissions were 2 Gt-CO2, ~7%
of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions!
!
● ~52% from calcination and ~48% from combustion of fuel to fire kilns!
!
● Portland cement is mixture di- and tri-calcium silicates (2CaO.SiO2, 3CaO.SiO2) + smaller
amounts of CaSO4, Mg, Al, Fe oxides and tricalcium aluminate (3CaO.Al2O3)!
!
● Limestone (CaCO3) is the main raw material + others for silica and other minerals!
!
● Major reactions:
!
● CaCO3 + heat ! CaO + CO2
● 2CaO + SiO2 ! 2CaO.SiO2
● 3CaO + Al2O3 ! 3CaO.Al2O3
● 4CaO + Al2O3 + Fe2O3 ! 4CaO.Al2O3.Fe2O3
● CaO + 2CaO.SiO2 ! 3CaO.SiO2
!
● CO2 from combustion and CO2 from calcination together may lead to volumetric CO2
concentration of between 14 to 33% in the flue gas.
Automobile Industry
Automobile Industry
0 2 0
y 2
a l b
tr ic
le c
ll e 1 9 !
o a
m 20 dels
n to g i f r o
d elec t r ic m o
ge br
y 100%
s wa
or h
Volk
c t r ic
uc e fiv e
e e le
nt r od
b
to firm will i
c r s
a , the
olv o 0 2 1 s a n
All V2019 and Nis
2
a ult,
we en R e n
Be t m
s f ro
E V plan
Big
c t r ic or
o n ly e le
t o m a ke
d R ov er 2 0 2 0
La n fro m
Jaguar hybrid
c a r s
Sectors: Transport
Outlook for Cars

The passenger car parc grows su
! The global car fleet is expected to double from 0.9 billion Passenger car parc by type
cars in 2015 to 1.8 billion by 2035!
Billions of vehicles
! The number of electric vehicles (EVs) is also expected to
rise significantly, from 1.2 million in 2015 to around 100 2.5
Battery electric
Only battery
million by 2035 (6% of total fleet). Around a quarter of the
Plug-in hybrid
ICE + battery
EVs will be Plug-In Hybrids (PHEVs), which run on a mix
2.0 ICE*
Internal combustion engine
of electric power and oil, and three quarters will be pure
Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) !
1.5 LNG
! In 2015, cars accounted for 19 Mb/d of liquid fuel demand -
a fifth of global demand => demand for oil for cars may Russian pipeline
double! 1.0
! But improvements in fuel efficiency (from 30 miles per 0.5

gallon (mpg) in 2015 to 50 mpg in 2035) is expected to Conventional
reduce this potential growth significantly!
0.0
! The growth of electric cars also reduces the growth in oil 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
demand, but the effect is much smaller: the 100 million *ICE vehicles includes hybrid vehicles which do not plug into th
increase in electric cars reduces oil demand growth by **Based on the NEDC (New European Drive Cycle), gasoline fu
1.2 Mb/d, which is about one-tenth of the reduction from

improved efficiency
Changes in Energy Consumption Patterns: !
The Case of China
! China is the world’s largest consumer of energy; it has been the most important source of
growth for global energy over the past 20 years !
As China adjusts to a more sustainable pattern of growth, its energy needs are likely to
change!
! China’s demand for energy is projected to grow by less than 2% p.a. over the 20 years,
compared to over 6% p.a. over the past 20 years. !
! This is partly due to reduction in GDP growth to about 5% over the next 20 years,
compared to ~10% over the past 20 years!
! It is also partly due to continuing sharp decline (about 3% per year) in energy intensity as
economic activity in China gradually shifts away from energy-intensive industrial output
towards less energy-intensive consumer and services activity, and partly due to
improvements in energy efficiency !
! China’s energy mix is also likely to change significantly over the next 20 years, due to
changing economic structure and a policy commitment to move to cleaner, lower-carbon
fuels: coal share to fall from 66% to 45% by 2035; share of nuclear, hydroelectric and
renewables to increase from 12% to 25%, share of natural gas to rise from 6% to 11%


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ECOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT!

Energy & Environment

Prof. Sreenivas Jayanti!

10000 BC, Europe

1300 AD, Europe

1880 AD, England

0 50 100 150 200

Energy consumption (GJ/year)

Adapted from Everett et al., Energy Systems and Sustainability, 2012

Energy Use per Capita

GDP per Energy Use

Billions of tonnes of oil equivalent (toe)

Adapted from “BP Energy Outlook-2018”

port 20 Other 20 Renewables

Adapted from “BP Energy Outlook-2018”

Small Hydro Diesel

g the Globally averaged greenhouse gas concentrations

Global anthropogenic CO2 emissions

Global anthropogenic CO2 emissions Cumulative CO2

and flaring 2000

Total annual anthropogenic GHG emissions by gases 1970–2010

Prof. Sreenivas Jayanti!

Adapted from “BP Energy Outlook-2018”

Direct GHG emissions Indirect CO2 emissions

Contributions to observed surface temperature change over the period 1951–2010

Other anthropogenic forcings

Combined anthropogenic forcings

Natural internal variability

–0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0

There is very high confidence that the extent

−100 Over the period 1901–2010, global mean

Human and managed systems

SPM 1. Observed Changes and their Causes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

SPM 3. Future Pathways for Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development

Global Mean Energy Budget

incoming solar reflected thermal outgoing

340 100 239

161 84 20 398 342

0.6 solar absorbed evapo- sensible thermal thermal

Clouds Ozone Greenhouse

Feedbacks and Timescales of Climate change

Ocean Emission of non-CO2

Peat and permafrost

HOURS DAYS YEARS CENTURIES

Sea-level and CO2 ppm in “Recent” Past

(a) 22,000 to 7,000 14,600 2,000 years ago

Rate of sea-level change (mm yr-1)

Rock weathering 0.3

Net land use change 1.1 ±0.8

Freshwater outgassing 1.0

Fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas)

118.7 = 107.2 + 11.6

78.4 = 60.7 + 17.7

Atmosphere Reactions with

Evolution of Global Climate Models

Evolution of Global GHG Gas Concentration

a) History RCPs ECPs

CO2 equivalent (CO2-eq ppm)

b) History RCPs ECPs

10 History RCPs ECPs

Changes in a Warmer World

Sea Ice Area

Sea Surface Temperature